Transmedics Group (TMDX)
NASDAQ:TMDX
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TransMedics Group
(NASDAQ:TMDX)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$73.00
▼(-37.00% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/22/26
The score is supported by strong profitability and improving free cash flow, plus reiterated FY2026 growth guidance and a sizable cash balance. It is weighed down by a clearly bearish technical trend, very high valuation (P/E 116.82), and fundamental watch-outs including leverage increasing materially and near-term margin pressure and variability risks discussed on the earnings call.
Positive Factors
Improving free cash flow
Sustained positive free cash flow at ~69% of net income indicates strong cash conversion from earnings, providing durable internal funding for R&D, NOP expansion and working capital. This reduces reliance on external financing and supports multi-quarter investment programs even if revenue growth moderates.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage
A meaningful jump in leverage reduces financial flexibility and increases sensitivity to revenue or margin setbacks. Higher debt service can constrain discretionary investment and amplify downside risk if clinical or donor-volume timing slips, making execution risk more consequential over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving free cash flow
Sustained positive free cash flow at ~69% of net income indicates strong cash conversion from earnings, providing durable internal funding for R&D, NOP expansion and working capital. This reduces reliance on external financing and supports multi-quarter investment programs even if revenue growth moderates.
Read all positive factors
TransMedics Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Divides revenue by market to show geographic strengths and vulnerabilities. Expansion into multiple transplant hubs points to scalable adoption and reduced reliance on any single region, while heavy dependence on one area increases risk from regulatory, reimbursement, or economic changes there.
Divides revenue by market to show geographic strengths and vulnerabilities. Expansion into multiple transplant hubs points to scalable adoption and reduced reliance on any single region, while heavy dependence on one area increases risk from regulatory, reimbursement, or economic changes there.
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The Fly
The FlyTransMedics Group (TMDX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.32B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.65M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.4
Beta (1Y)1.09
Revenue Growth30.24%
EPS Growth244.83%
CountryUS
Employees728
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Devices
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.03
Shares Outstanding34,560,910
10 Day Avg. Volume1,384,759
30 Day Avg. Volume1,649,682
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.05
Price to Book (P/B)8.74
Price to Sales (P/S)6.83
P/FCF Ratio30.96
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.15
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.21
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.13
Enterprise Value/Ebitda19.50
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$126.75Price Target Upside9.39% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)2.09
Revenue Forecast (FY)$733.30M
TransMedics Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
TransMedics Group, Inc., a commercial-stage medical technology company, engages in transforming organ transplant therapy for end-stage organ failure patients in the United States and internationally. The company offers Organ Care System (OCS), a p...
How the Company Makes Money
TransMedics primarily makes money by selling and supporting its organ preservation technology and related services used by transplant centers and organ procurement stakeholders. Key revenue streams include: (1) Product-related revenue tied to use ...
TransMedics Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicates solid top-line growth (21% YoY) and a strong cash position (~$462M), supported by clear, multi-year growth initiatives (CHOPS, OCS Kidney Gen 3.0, Gen 3.0 upgrades, and European NOP expansion) and reiterated full‑year guidance (20%–25% revenue growth). Near term, the company is absorbing deliberate, sizeable investments that compress gross and operating margins (gross margin down ~331 bps YoY; adjusted operating expenses up ~42% YoY), while donor-volume volatility and prior competitive-driven enrollment delays create execution and timing risk for clinical programs. Overall the call strikes a positive tone on growth and strategic direction but acknowledges tangible near-term margin and enrollment headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Total revenue of $174.0M in 1Q2026, up ~21% year-over-year and ~8% sequentially, demonstrating continued demand for the OCS platform and NOP services.
Negative Updates
Gross Margin Pressure
Total gross margin ~58% in 1Q2026, down ~331 basis points YoY. The decline was attributed to internal supply chain activity to replenish inventory for DENOVO/ENHANCE, investments in NOP capabilities and certain one-time items; management expects some normalization over time but near-term pressure remains.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth
Total revenue of $174.0M in 1Q2026, up ~21% year-over-year and ~8% sequentially, demonstrating continued demand for the OCS platform and NOP services.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated full‑year 2026 revenue guidance of $727–$757 million (up 20%–25% vs. 2025) while reporting a solid Q1: total revenue $174M (+21% YoY, +8% sequential), U.S. transplant revenue ~$167M (liver ~$139M, heart ~$26M, lung ~$2M), international revenue ~$5.6M, total product revenue ~$108M, service revenue ~$66M and transplant logistics services revenue ~$32M (NOP coverage ~82%; plan to maintain 22 U.S. aircraft in 2026). Q1 adjusted operating profit was roughly $18M (~10–10.4% adjusted operating margin), adjusted net income ~$11M (≈$0.30 diluted EPS), cash and equivalents ~$462M, gross margin ~58% (down ~331 bps YoY), and adjusted operating expenses ~$83M (up ~42% YoY) with adjusted R&D +45% and adjusted SG&A +41% as investments were front‑loaded; management reiterated a long‑term gross margin target of ~60%, expects near‑term margin pressure (operate up to ~250 bps below 2025 adjusted operating margin) and said guidance may be revisited as ENHANCE/DENOVO enrollment and U.S. transplant modernization dynamics unfold.TransMedics Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 635.89M | 605.49M | 441.54M | 241.62M | 93.46M | 30.26M |
| Gross Profit | 375.74M | 362.81M | 262.08M | 154.09M | 65.27M | 21.16M |
| EBITDA | 137.38M | 148.49M | 69.95M | -7.70M | -28.96M | -38.49M |
| Net Income | 171.92M | 190.29M | 35.46M | -25.03M | -36.23M | -44.22M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.43B | 1.07B | 804.08M | 706.05M | 277.15M | 134.89M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 461.74M | 488.37M | 336.65M | 394.81M | 201.18M | 92.45M |
| Total Debt | 818.75M | 469.69M | 518.29M | 515.95M | 67.56M | 43.80M |
| Total Liabilities | 940.81M | 595.27M | 575.47M | 568.85M | 89.77M | 67.04M |
| Stockholders Equity | 494.01M | 473.10M | 228.60M | 137.20M | 187.38M | 67.85M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 151.36M | 133.59M | -80.94M | -192.09M | -57.72M | -32.38M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 220.23M | 192.84M | 48.80M | -13.03M | -45.82M | -28.86M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -68.87M | -59.25M | -129.30M | -193.95M | 54.51M | 29.27M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 17.59M | 16.86M | 22.87M | 400.42M | 167.93M | 1.39M |
TransMedics Group Technical Analysis
Negative
115.87
Price Trends
93.47
Negative
114.32
Negative
118.41
Negative
Market Momentum
-8.45
Negative
31.38
Neutral
67.52
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TMDX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 115.87 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 71.96, above the 50-day MA of 93.47, and below the 200-day MA of 118.41, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -8.45 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 31.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TMDX.
TransMedics Group Risk Analysis
TransMedics Group disclosed 75 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TransMedics Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
TransMedics Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $4.05B | 37.68 | 9.13% | ― | 12.40% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $2.32B | 13.44 | 41.92% | ― | 30.24% | 244.83% | |
61 Neutral | $3.03B | 21.61 | 8.23% | ― | 5.48% | 77.43% | |
61 Neutral | $1.19B | 9.05 | 17.98% | ― | 8.94% | 102.92% | |
52 Neutral | $6.07B | -31.67 | -26.46% | ― | 36.30% | -42.48% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
50 Neutral | $1.19B | -9.52 | -443.09% | ― | 22.55% | 27.87% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
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TransMedics Group Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
TransMedics Shareholders Reelect Board and Approve Executive Pay
Positive
May 21, 2026
On May 20, 2026, TransMedics Group, Inc. shareholders re-elected eight directors, including founder and CEO Waleed Hassanein, M.D., along with board members such as James R. Tobin and Merilee Raines, to serve until the 2027 annual meeting. Investo...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.