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TransMedics Group
(NASDAQ:TMDX)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$88.00
▲(21.78% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/05/26
The score reflects strong fundamentals and demand momentum (rapid growth and improved profitability versus prior years) supported by a reasonable P/E. This is tempered by rising leverage and weaker recent free-cash-flow conversion, plus guidance that implies near-term margin pressure and execution risk from heavy investment and PAD-related dilution. Technicals are mixed, with improving short-term trend but still weak longer-term trend.
Positive Factors
Sustained revenue growth & solid gross margin
Multi-year double-digit revenue growth with an established ~59% gross margin indicates durable demand and a scalable consumables-driven business model. Strong gross margins support reinvestment in R&D and logistics while preserving unit economics as volume scales over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage
Material increase in leverage reduces financial flexibility and raises fixed interest obligations. If free cash flow conversion remains weaker, higher debt amplifies refinancing and covenant risk and constrains capital allocation for strategic investments over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained revenue growth & solid gross margin
Multi-year double-digit revenue growth with an established ~59% gross margin indicates durable demand and a scalable consumables-driven business model. Strong gross margins support reinvestment in R&D and logistics while preserving unit economics as volume scales over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
TransMedics Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Divides revenue by market to show geographic strengths and vulnerabilities. Expansion into multiple transplant hubs points to scalable adoption and reduced reliance on any single region, while heavy dependence on one area increases risk from regulatory, reimbursement, or economic changes there.
Divides revenue by market to show geographic strengths and vulnerabilities. Expansion into multiple transplant hubs points to scalable adoption and reduced reliance on any single region, while heavy dependence on one area increases risk from regulatory, reimbursement, or economic changes there.
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The Fly
The FlyTransMedics Group (TMDX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.64B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)959.09K
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.2
Beta (1Y)1.13
Revenue Growth30.24%
EPS Growth244.83%
CountryUS
Employees898
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Devices
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.42
Shares Outstanding34,560,910
10 Day Avg. Volume841,515
30 Day Avg. Volume959,090
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.05
Price to Book (P/B)8.74
Price to Sales (P/S)6.83
P/FCF Ratio30.96
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$96.88Price Target Upside34.06% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)1.83
Revenue Forecast (FY)$732.60M
TransMedics Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
TransMedics Group, Inc. operates as a commercial-stage medical technology enterprise, committed to transforming the landscape of organ transplant therapy for patients worldwide grappling with end-stage organ failure. At the core of their offerings...
How the Company Makes Money
TransMedics primarily generates revenue by selling and supporting its OCS platform and by charging for services associated with using the technology in real-world transplant workflows. Key revenue streams include: (1) product revenue from the sale...
TransMedics Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive operational and commercial picture: record revenue, strong product and service growth (notably liver and logistics), improved sequential gross margin, robust cash balance, and raised revenue guidance. At the same time, the company is investing heavily in strategic initiatives (OCS Kidney, Gen 3.0, ENHANCE, DENOVO, European logistics/PAD) which is elevating R&D and operating expenses, tempering near-term operating margin and introducing execution and timing risk (IDE approvals, PAD integration and international reimbursement). Overall, the fundamentals and long-term growth roadmap are strong, but near-term profitability will be impacted by deliberate, front-loaded investments and some timing uncertainties.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue and Volume
Total revenue of approximately $190 million, the highest quarterly revenue in company history, up ~21% year-over-year and ~9% sequentially.
Negative Updates
Near-Term Margin Pressure from Mix and Costs
Total gross margin declined ~180 basis points year-over-year (despite sequential improvement) due to higher mix of service revenue and temporary product cost pressures including inventory provisioning and trial-related solution costs.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue and Volume
Total revenue of approximately $190 million, the highest quarterly revenue in company history, up ~21% year-over-year and ~9% sequentially.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
TransMedics raised the low end of its 2026 revenue guide to $737–$757 million (≈22%–25% growth vs. 2025), explicitly assuming no revenue from the recent PAD Aviation investment and no meaningful contribution yet from ENHANCE Part B or DENOVO; management expects second-half gross margin (ex‑PAD) of ~59% and a full‑year adjusted operating margin (ex‑PAD) of ~12.5%–14% (vs. a prior ~16% target and 2025’s 18.5%), with Q2 adjusted operating margin at 13.6% (~$25.8M) and adjusted net income of $16.2M ($0.44 diluted EPS on ~40.7M shares). The company finished Q2 with ~$473M cash (+~$18M restricted), forecasts full‑year interest expense of ~ $29M (including ~$15.3M HQ‑related) partially offset by ~ $12M interest income, expects an effective tax rate of ~26% for the year, warns PAD consolidation in Q3 will be near‑term dilutive to gross and operating margins, and reiterates longer‑term targets of ~60% sustainable gross margin and a platform capable of ~30,000 transplants by 2032 driving >$2B in annual revenue.TransMedics Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 668.47M | 605.49M | 441.54M | 241.62M | 93.46M | 30.26M |
| Gross Profit | 392.35M | 362.81M | 262.08M | 154.09M | 65.27M | 21.16M |
| EBITDA | 119.97M | 148.49M | 69.95M | -7.70M | -28.96M | -38.49M |
| Net Income | 151.70M | 190.29M | 35.46M | -25.03M | -36.23M | -44.22M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.46B | 1.07B | 804.08M | 706.05M | 277.15M | 134.89M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 472.68M | 488.37M | 336.65M | 394.81M | 201.18M | 92.45M |
| Total Debt | 867.72M | 469.69M | 518.29M | 515.95M | 67.56M | 43.80M |
| Total Liabilities | 946.34M | 595.27M | 575.47M | 568.85M | 89.77M | 67.04M |
| Stockholders Equity | 518.05M | 473.10M | 228.60M | 137.20M | 187.38M | 67.85M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 79.04M | 133.59M | -80.94M | -192.09M | -57.72M | -32.38M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 145.93M | 192.84M | 48.80M | -13.03M | -45.82M | -28.86M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -66.89M | -59.25M | -129.30M | -193.95M | 54.51M | 29.27M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 11.47M | 16.86M | 22.87M | 400.42M | 167.93M | 1.39M |
TransMedics Group Technical Analysis
Negative
72.26
Price Trends
73.00
Positive
85.34
Negative
108.61
Negative
Market Momentum
1.41
Negative
52.65
Neutral
74.85
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TMDX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 72.26 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 75.07, below the 50-day MA of 73.00, and below the 200-day MA of 108.61, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.41 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TMDX.
TransMedics Group Risk Analysis
TransMedics Group disclosed 75 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TransMedics Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
TransMedics Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $1.45B | 11.08 | 17.62% | ― | 8.94% | 102.92% | |
69 Neutral | $2.64B | 15.21 | 32.97% | ― | 30.24% | 244.83% | |
69 Neutral | $4.40B | 40.68 | 9.13% | ― | 12.40% | ― | |
64 Neutral | $4.12B | 29.85 | 7.43% | ― | 5.48% | 77.43% | |
62 Neutral | $1.46B | -11.47 | -139.55% | ― | 22.55% | 27.87% | |
61 Neutral | $9.83B | -51.30 | -27.07% | ― | 41.55% | -96.75% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
TMDX
TransMedics Group
76.49
-42.31
-35.61%
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TransMedics Group Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
TransMedics Shareholders Reelect Board and Approve Executive Pay
Positive
May 21, 2026
On May 20, 2026, TransMedics Group, Inc. shareholders re-elected eight directors, including founder and CEO Waleed Hassanein, M.D., along with board members such as James R. Tobin and Merilee Raines, to serve until the 2027 annual meeting. Investo...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.