TransMedics Group (TMDX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.91B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 642.79K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 57.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.02
• Revenue Growth: 41.20%
• EPS Growth: 173.53%
• Country: US
• Employees: 728
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Devices
• EPS (TTM): 0.66
• Shares Outstanding: 34,174,324
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 664,557
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 642,793
• PEG Ratio: -0.24
• Price to Book (P/B): 9.06
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.69
• P/FCF Ratio: -25.60
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.79
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 6.85
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.37
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 29.34
• 1Y Price Target: $147.80
• Price Target Upside: 2.86% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.89
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $724.49M

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: $155.00 ▲(7.87% Upside)

The score is led by strong financial performance (margin expansion and exceptional cash flow generation) and a generally constructive technical setup (price above key moving averages with positive MACD). The main constraint is valuation (high P/E with no dividend yield), while the latest earnings call supports the outlook via raised guidance despite acknowledged seasonal and sequential softness.

Positive Factors

Free Cash Flow Strength

A 595% rise in free cash flow signals a durable improvement in cash conversion and operating discipline. Strong FCF supports ongoing R&D, clinical rollouts, consumable volume scale, and reduces reliance on external financing as the company scales global OCS adoption.

Margin Expansion

Sustained gross margins near 60% and rising net margins reflect pricing power on devices and consumables plus improving operating leverage. Durable margin expansion enhances reinvestment capacity and makes unit economics attractive as procedure volumes scale internationally.

Multi-Organ Market Coverage

Meaningful growth across liver, heart and lung segments reduces single-organ concentration risk and broadens addressable market. A multi-organ platform drives recurring consumable and service revenue, supports cross-selling, and strengthens competitive positioning over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Elevated Leverage

Leverage remains relatively high despite improvements, constraining financial flexibility. Elevated debt increases interest and covenant risk, limits optionality for opportunistic M&A or accelerated R&D, and makes the company more sensitive to cash flow variability over the next several quarters.

Volume Seasonality and Variability

Transplant volumes show seasonal and quarter-to-quarter swings, creating revenue visibility challenges. Procedure-driven revenue variability affects capacity utilization, rental scheduling and consumable sales, complicating forecasting and potentially pressuring margins during weak periods.

Large Long-Term Real Estate Commitment

A substantial, long-duration HQ and campus lease plus land purchases create fixed-cost and capital commitments. While strategic for scale, these long-horizon obligations reduce short-term liquidity flexibility and divert capital from product development if growth or cash generation slows.

TransMedics Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

TransMedics Group, Inc., a commercial-stage medical technology company, engages in transforming organ transplant therapy for end-stage organ failure patients in the United States and internationally. The company offers Organ Care System (OCS), a portable organ perfusion, optimization, and monitoring system that utilizes its proprietary and customized technology to replicate near-physiologic conditions for donor organs outside of the human body. Its Organ Care System includes OCS LUNG for the preservation of standard criteria donor lungs for double-lung transplantation; OCS Heart, a technology for extracorporeal perfusion and preservation of donor hearts; and OCS Liver for the preservation of donor livers. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

TransMedics generates revenue primarily through the sale and rental of its Organ Care Systems and related services. The company earns money through the direct sale of OCS devices to hospitals and transplant centers, as well as through leasing agreements that allow medical facilities to utilize the technology on a per-case basis. Additionally, TMDX may derive revenue from the sale of consumables and accessories used in conjunction with its devices. Significant partnerships with transplant centers, hospitals, and healthcare organizations enhance its reach and capability, contributing to its revenue streams by facilitating more organ transplants and expanding the adoption of its technology.

TransMedics Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

TransMedics Group exhibits strong financial health with significant improvements in revenue growth, profitability, and cash flow generation. The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 6.6% increase in the TTM period, supported by a solid gross profit margin of 59.8%. The net profit margin improved significantly to 13.5% from 8.0% in the previous year, indicating enhanced profitability. While leverage remains a consideration, the company's operational and financial metrics indicate a positive trajectory and effective management strategies.

Income Statement

TransMedics Group has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 6.6% increase in the TTM period, supported by a solid gross profit margin of 59.8%. The net profit margin improved significantly to 13.5% from 8.0% in the previous year, indicating enhanced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins also showed positive trends, reflecting operational efficiency improvements.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved from 2.27 to 1.63, indicating better leverage management, though it remains relatively high. Return on equity has increased to 28.0%, showcasing strong profitability relative to equity. However, the equity ratio remains moderate, suggesting a balanced asset structure.

Cash Flow

TransMedics Group's cash flow performance is robust, with a remarkable 595.3% growth in free cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.04 indicates strong cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio has improved, reflecting better cash conversion efficiency.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	566.35M	441.54M	241.62M	93.46M	30.26M	25.64M
Gross Profit	341.40M	262.08M	154.09M	65.27M	21.16M	16.64M
EBITDA	132.27M	69.95M	-7.70M	-28.96M	-38.49M	-23.15M
Net Income	91.77M	35.46M	-25.03M	-36.23M	-44.22M	-28.75M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	946.03M	804.08M	706.05M	277.15M	134.89M	152.03M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	466.17M	336.65M	394.81M	201.18M	92.45M	125.64M
Total Debt	519.35M	518.29M	515.95M	67.56M	43.80M	34.66M
Total Liabilities	590.83M	575.47M	568.85M	89.77M	67.04M	48.13M
Stockholders Equity	355.20M	228.60M	137.20M	187.38M	67.85M	103.89M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	120.65M	-80.94M	-192.09M	-57.72M	-32.38M	-30.72M
Operating Cash Flow	177.99M	48.80M	-13.03M	-45.82M	-28.86M	-30.27M
Investing Cash Flow	-57.34M	-129.30M	-193.95M	54.51M	29.27M	-41.60M
Financing Cash Flow	14.94M	22.87M	400.42M	167.93M	1.39M	75.55M

TransMedics Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 143.69
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TMDX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 143.69 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 131.20, above the 50-day MA of 130.37, and above the 200-day MA of 118.81, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.68 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.86 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TMDX.

TransMedics Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TMDX	76 Outperform	$4.91B	57.91	32.48%	―	41.20%	173.53%
INSP	69 Neutral	$2.80B	63.26	6.54%	―	16.81%	34.90%
ITGR	65 Neutral	$2.99B	35.91	5.18%	―	7.81%	-26.32%
LIVN	63 Neutral	$3.45B	-15.49	-17.63%	―	8.97%	-1024.86%
GKOS	58 Neutral	$6.58B	-77.53	-12.19%	―	30.38%	47.64%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
ATEC	47 Neutral	$2.59B	-16.94	-540.40%	―	27.11%	17.66%

TransMedics Group Corporate Events

TransMedics Group Expands Somerville Campus With Major Lease

On January 8, 2026, TransMedics Group entered into a long-term lease with BioMed Realty for approximately 498,286 square feet of space at 188 Assembly Park Drive in Somerville, Massachusetts, which will house the company’s future headquarters as well as research, laboratory, manufacturing, assembly, vivarium, and office operations. The facility is expected to become TransMedics’ new headquarters on or before January 1, 2028, with base rent beginning no later than February 1, 2028 at about $23.9 million annually, subject to 2% yearly increases, and the company assuming essentially all operating and tax expenses; the lease runs for an initial term of 192 months, backed by an $18 million letter-of-credit security deposit and multiple extension options, underscoring a significant, long-horizon infrastructure commitment. Also on January 8, 2026, the company purchased two adjacent Somerville parcels for $15 million each plus related costs, further consolidating its campus-style presence and signaling a substantial long-term expansion of its Massachusetts operational base.

The most recent analyst rating on (TMDX) stock is a Hold with a $115.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TransMedics Group stock, see the TMDX Stock Forecast page.