TransMedics Group Inc (TMDX)
NASDAQ:TMDX
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TransMedics Group
(NASDAQ:TMDX)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$109.00
▼(-4.39% Downside)
Action:DowngradedDate:03/19/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (rapid revenue scaling, major profitability improvement, and sharply better operating cash flow/FCF) and supportive 2026 growth guidance, partially offset by weak technical signals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD) and earnings-quality/margin-pressure risks (one-time tax benefit in 2025 and planned 2026 investment-driven margin compression).
Positive Factors
Rapid revenue growth & clinical adoption
Sustained 30%+ revenue growth reflects durable market adoption of OCS across liver and heart and increasing utilization per center. This growth implies expanding case volume, recurring consumable sales, and widening clinical footprint that support multi-year revenue visibility and scale economics.
Negative Factors
One-time earnings boost
An $83.8M deferred tax benefit materially inflated reported 2025 net income and margins. Relying on such nonrecurring items can overstate true profitability and ROE; analysts and investors should normalize earnings when assessing sustainable cash returns and margin trajectory.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Rapid revenue growth & clinical adoption
Sustained 30%+ revenue growth reflects durable market adoption of OCS across liver and heart and increasing utilization per center. This growth implies expanding case volume, recurring consumable sales, and widening clinical footprint that support multi-year revenue visibility and scale economics.
Read all positive factors
TransMedics Group (TMDX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.91B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)959.16K
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.7
Beta (1Y)1.33
Revenue Growth41.20%
EPS Growth173.53%
CountryUS
Employees728
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Devices
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.62
Shares Outstanding34,302,452
10 Day Avg. Volume807,071
30 Day Avg. Volume959,163
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.05
Price to Book (P/B)8.74
Price to Sales (P/S)6.83
P/FCF Ratio30.96
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.99
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.39
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.67
Enterprise Value/Ebitda26.06
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$155.10Price Target Upside36.05% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)2.49
Revenue Forecast (FY)$739.61M
TransMedics Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
TransMedics Group, Inc., a commercial-stage medical technology company, engages in transforming organ transplant therapy for end-stage organ failure patients in the United States and internationally. The company offers Organ Care System (OCS), a p...
How the Company Makes Money
TransMedics primarily makes money by selling and supporting its organ preservation technology and related services used by transplant centers and organ procurement stakeholders. Key revenue streams include: (1) Product-related revenue tied to use ...
TransMedics Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyTransMedics Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 27, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated strong operational and financial momentum: robust revenue growth (Q4 +32% YoY; FY +37%), expanded operating margins, a healthy cash balance (~$488M), large increases in OCS clinical volume (5,139 U.S. OCS transplants in 2025) and clear growth catalysts across clinical programs, next-generation platforms and international rollout. Notable near-term risks include Q4 gross margin pressure, a significant one-time tax benefit inflating net income, low lung adoption, potential trial delays due to competitive dynamics in ENHANCE Part B, and planned 2026 investments that will compress margins temporarily. On balance, the positives — scalable revenue growth, margin expansion at scale, strong cash position and accelerating clinical adoption in liver and heart — outweigh the lowlights, though execution on trials, international buildout and operational scaling remains critical.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth (Q4 and Full Year 2025)
Q4 2025 total revenue of $160.8M (reported ~ $161M) representing ~32% year-over-year growth and ~12% sequential growth versus Q3 2025; Full year 2025 revenue $605.5M, up ~37% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Q4 Gross Margin Pressure and Inventory/Freight Costs
Q4 total gross margin ~58%, down ~110 bps year-over-year and ~70 bps sequentially; declines attributed to higher clinical service costs, increased logistics discounts, higher freight expenses and year-end inventory-related charges.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue Growth (Q4 and Full Year 2025)
Q4 2025 total revenue of $160.8M (reported ~ $161M) representing ~32% year-over-year growth and ~12% sequential growth versus Q3 2025; Full year 2025 revenue $605.5M, up ~37% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
TransMedics guided full-year 2026 revenue of $727 million to $757 million (about 20%–25% growth vs. full‑year 2025 revenue of $605.5M), saying growth will be driven by increased order utilization, continued OCS adoption and expanded service revenue while expecting similar seasonal Q3 dynamics; management reiterated a long‑run gross margin target around 60% but flagged near‑term margin pressure as roughly half of incremental investments are transitory and called for operating margins to be up to ~250 basis points below 2025 levels (2025 operating margin ~18%, implying roughly ~15.5% in 2026 at the midpoint), with operating margin expansion to approach ~30% by 2028; other guidance-related metrics: $488.4M cash on hand at year‑end 2025, planned completion timing for OCS Kidney FDA trial by early 2027, continued R&D and Gen 3.0 investments, a double‑shifting pilot with early H1 2026 results, and no current plan to expand the 22‑jet fleet in 2026.TransMedics Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 605.49M | 441.54M | 241.62M | 93.46M | 30.26M |
| Gross Profit | 362.81M | 262.08M | 154.09M | 65.27M | 21.16M |
| EBITDA | 148.49M | 69.95M | -7.70M | -28.96M | -38.49M |
| Net Income | 190.29M | 35.46M | -25.03M | -36.23M | -44.22M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.07B | 804.08M | 706.05M | 277.15M | 134.89M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 488.37M | 336.65M | 394.81M | 201.18M | 92.45M |
| Total Debt | 469.69M | 518.29M | 515.95M | 67.56M | 43.80M |
| Total Liabilities | 595.27M | 575.47M | 568.85M | 89.77M | 67.04M |
| Stockholders Equity | 473.10M | 228.60M | 137.20M | 187.38M | 67.85M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 133.59M | -80.94M | -192.09M | -57.72M | -32.38M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 192.84M | 48.80M | -13.03M | -45.82M | -28.86M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -59.25M | -129.30M | -193.95M | 54.51M | 29.27M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 16.86M | 22.87M | 400.42M | 167.93M | 1.39M |
TransMedics Group Technical Analysis
Neutral
114.00
Price Trends
124.69
Negative
128.73
Negative
123.75
Negative
Market Momentum
-5.28
Negative
50.34
Neutral
81.08
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TMDX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 114 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 109.03, below the 50-day MA of 124.69, and below the 200-day MA of 123.75, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -5.28 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.08 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TMDX.
TransMedics Group Risk Analysis
TransMedics Group disclosed 75 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TransMedics Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
TransMedics Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $3.43B | -13.83 | -21.49% | ― | 8.97% | -1024.86% | |
67 Neutral | $3.91B | 21.73 | 53.88% | ― | 41.20% | 173.53% | |
66 Neutral | $2.93B | 26.50 | 6.05% | ― | 7.81% | -26.32% | |
66 Neutral | $1.54B | 18.63 | 21.07% | ― | 16.81% | 34.90% | |
59 Neutral | $6.76B | -34.40 | -25.41% | ― | 30.38% | 47.64% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
51 Neutral | $1.65B | -22.02 | -1760.45% | ― | 27.11% | 17.66% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
TMDX
TransMedics Group
114.00
27.16
31.28%
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TransMedics Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
TransMedics Group Names New Commercial Leader
Positive
Feb 4, 2026
On February 1, 2026, TransMedics Group’s board appointed Giovanni Cecere as Chief Commercial Officer, effective February 2, 2026, succeeding long-serving commercial chief Tamer Khayal, M.D., who will shift into the role of Senior Vice Presid...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.