TransMedics Group (TMDX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.56B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 916.13K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 77.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.43
• Revenue Growth: 64.43%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 728
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Medical - Devices
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 33,833,790
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,065,505
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 916,127
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $140.57
• Price Target Upside: 33.57% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $126.00 ▲(19.73%Upside)

The strong earnings call and positive financial performance are significant strengths, but technical indicators and valuation concerns, such as a high P/E ratio and negative cash flow, temper the overall score.

Positive Factors

Earnings

TransMedics is expected to exceed consensus sales and EPS expectations this quarter.

Market Growth

The company is growing the organ transplant market rapidly, addressing the supply-plagued market through extended DBD and more significantly by DCD donors.

Sales Performance

US sales of TMDX reached $144.8 million, representing an increase of roughly 34% year-over-year.

Negative Factors

Management Outlook

Management may take a more conservative outlook to second-half guidance due to typical seasonality in the business.

Regulatory Challenges

The FDA's interim response to the citizen petition is expected to be neutral, which is de facto negative, as it signals no likely action by the agency.

Seasonality Impact

Year-over-year industry volumes have shown seasonal weakness in the third quarter, likely due to summer vacations of transplant staff.

TransMedics Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

TransMedics Group, Inc. is a medical technology company that specializes in developing advanced organ transplant systems. The company is renowned for its Organ Care System (OCS), which is designed to improve outcomes for organ transplant patients by enabling enhanced preservation, assessment, and transportation of donor organs. Operating primarily within the healthcare and medical technology sectors, TransMedics aims to address the limitations of traditional cold storage methods and expand the availability of viable organs for transplantation.

How the Company Makes Money

TransMedics makes money primarily through the sale and leasing of its Organ Care System (OCS) devices and the associated single-use disposable products required for each organ transplant procedure. The company generates revenue from hospitals and transplant centers that purchase or lease the OCS for heart, lung, and liver transplants. Additionally, TransMedics may benefit from partnerships with healthcare institutions and research organizations that utilize its technology for clinical studies and trials. The company also engages in strategic collaborations to expand the adoption and application of its systems in various markets, thereby contributing to its revenue growth.

TransMedics Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

TransMedics exhibits strong revenue growth and improving margins, positioning it well in the industry. However, high debt levels and negative free cash flow indicate financial risks that require careful management.

Income Statement

The company shows strong revenue growth from $25.6M in 2020 to $488.2M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), indicating a robust growth trajectory. Gross profit margin improved significantly, demonstrating operational efficiency. EBIT and EBITDA margins have turned positive, reflecting improved profitability. However, net profit margins remain modest, highlighting room for further profitability improvements.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is strengthened by increasing stockholders' equity, reaching $266.3M in TTM from $103.9M in 2020. The debt-to-equity ratio indicates a moderate leverage level, but the company has maintained a healthy equity ratio. However, the high total debt of $518.4M could pose a risk if earnings do not continue to grow.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow remains negative despite improvements in operating cash flow, indicating cash generation challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests adequate cash conversion, but high capital expenditures impact free cash flow. Continued growth in operating cash flow is essential to support investments and reduce reliance on external financing.

Breakdown
Income Statement
Total Revenue
Gross Profit
EBITDA
Net Income
Balance Sheet
Total Assets
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
Total Debt
Total Liabilities
Stockholders Equity
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
Investing Cash Flow
Financing Cash Flow

TransMedics Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 105.24
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TMDX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 105.24 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 115.65, below the 50-day MA of 124.77, and above the 200-day MA of 91.81, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -5.63 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TMDX.

TransMedics Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
UFPT	81 Outperform	$1.89B	29.97	19.36%	―	34.43%	31.90%
TMDX	68 Neutral	$3.56B	77.35	22.99%	―	64.43%	―
AORT	68 Neutral	$1.34B	―	-7.25%	―	5.94%	-115.82%
LIVN	61 Neutral	$2.37B	30.62	-19.69%	―	7.97%	-592.40%
PRCT	54 Neutral	$2.99B	―	-27.62%	―	59.36%	19.87%
IART	52 Neutral	$1.02B	―	-1.85%	―	6.19%	-174.69%
Sector *	46 Neutral	C$205.70M	-3.34	-23.14%	2.45%	20.79%	-0.36%

TransMedics Group Corporate Events

TransMedics Group Holds 2025 Annual Shareholders Meeting

On May 22, 2025, TransMedics Group, Inc. held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where several key proposals were voted on. The shareholders elected eight directors to serve on the Board until the 2026 Annual Meeting, approved the compensation for the company’s executive officers, and ratified the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. These decisions are expected to impact the company’s governance and financial oversight positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (TMDX) stock is a Buy with a $109.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TransMedics Group stock, see the TMDX Stock Forecast page.