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TransMedics Group Inc (TMDX)
NASDAQ:TMDX
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TransMedics Group
(NASDAQ:TMDX)
Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$135.00
▲(12.64% Upside)
Positive Factors
FDA Approval
TransMedics announced that the FDA has granted conditional approval of its Investigational Device Exemption (IDE) to initiate the next-generation OCS ENHANCE Heart clinical program.
Revenue and Guidance
Full-year guidance was raised to $585M-$605M from $565M-$585M.
US Sales Growth
US sales for 3Q25 are projected to be $138M, which is up by approximately 32% year over year.
Negative Factors
Logistics Impact
Scheduled maintenance for TMDX's aviation fleet is expected in Q3 and Q4, which could temporarily impact logistics.
Projected Sales Shortfall
The current estimate for 3Q25 US sales is $145M, indicating a potential shortfall in expected sales.
Transplant Volume Concerns
The SRTR data for July 2025 indicates that TMDX's transplant volumes were likely down from the average monthly rate in 2Q25.
TransMedics Group (TMDX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.18B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.24M
Price to Earnings (P/E)63.0
Beta (1Y)1.25
Revenue Growth48.09%
EPS Growth2410.18%
CountryUS
Employees728
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength48
IndustryMedical - Devices
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.92
Shares Outstanding34,090,355
10 Day Avg. Volume948,947
30 Day Avg. Volume1,244,780
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.24
Price to Book (P/B)9.06
Price to Sales (P/S)4.69
P/FCF Ratio-25.60
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.33
Enterprise Value/Revenue10.45
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit17.48
Enterprise Value/Ebitda49.61
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$147.00Price Target Upside22.65% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
TransMedics Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionTransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX) is a pioneering medical technology company focused on transforming the transplant process for organs, particularly hearts, lungs, and livers. The company has developed the Organ Care System (OCS), a novel platform that allows for the preservation and transport of donor organs in a near-physiological state, thereby increasing the viability and success rates of organ transplants. TMDX operates primarily within the healthcare and medical device sectors, targeting hospitals and transplant centers to improve patient outcomes and expand the availability of transplantable organs.
How the Company Makes MoneyTransMedics generates revenue primarily through the sale of its Organ Care Systems and related disposable products used in the organ preservation and transplantation process. The company earns revenue by leasing the OCS devices to hospitals and transplant centers, which includes a fee for each organ transported using the system. Additionally, TMDX benefits from recurring revenues through the sale of disposables that accompany the use of the OCS, such as perfusion kits and other single-use components. Strategic partnerships with hospitals, transplant programs, and organ procurement organizations also contribute to the company’s growth and revenue, as they expand the network of facilities adopting TransMedics' innovative technology.
TransMedics Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Organ
Details revenue generated from different organ transplant solutions, indicating which areas are most lucrative and where there might be potential for expansion or increased market share.
Details revenue generated from different organ transplant solutions, indicating which areas are most lucrative and where there might be potential for expansion or increased market share.
Data provided by:
Main Street Data
Main Street DataTransMedics Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: 11.28%|
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a strong financial performance with significant revenue and profit growth, successful FDA approvals, and raised guidance. However, there were challenges including a decline in OUS revenue and anticipated seasonality impacts, alongside addressing competitive noise. Overall, the positive highlights significantly outweighed the lowlights.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Revenue Growth
Total revenue for 2Q 2025 was $157.4 million, representing approximately 38% growth year-over-year and approximately 10% sequential growth from 1Q 2025.
Strong Operating Profit and Cash Generation
Operating profit of approximately $36.6 million in 2Q, representing more than 23% of total revenue, and strong cash generation with over $400 million in cash at the end of 2Q.
Growth in Transplant Logistics Revenue
Transplant logistics service revenue for 2Q was $29.8 million, representing 56% year-over-year and 14% sequential growth.
FDA Conditional Approval for OCS Lung IDE
Received FDA conditional approval for the OCS Lung IDE in July, with plans to begin trial initiation activities soon.
Raised Full Year 2025 Revenue Guidance
Raised full year 2025 revenue guidance to between $585 million and $605 million, representing approximately 35% growth over full year 2024.
Negative Updates
Decline in OUS Revenue
OUS revenue was $4 million, down 12% from Q2 of 2024, though up 2% sequentially.
Seasonality Impact on Performance
Expected minor and transient seasonality in Q3 performance, similar to the previous year, which could impact sequential growth.
Challenges with Competitive Commentary and Market Noise
Addressed recent market confusion and noise from competitive commentary, particularly concerning lung transplantation in the U.S.
Company Guidance
During the TransMedics second quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided a robust set of financial and operational metrics that underscored their strong performance and future growth strategies. The company reported total revenue of $157.4 million for the quarter, representing approximately 38% growth year-over-year and about 10% sequential growth from the first quarter of 2025. Gross margin remained steady at 61.4%, similar to the previous quarter, while operating profit increased to $36.6 million, up from $27.4 million in the prior quarter. The company also highlighted a significant addition of approximately $90 million to its balance sheet, ending the quarter with over $400 million in cash. TransMedics raised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to between $585 million and $605 million, reflecting approximately 35% growth over 2024 at the midpoint. The company also discussed its strategic initiatives, including achieving 10,000 U.S. NOP transplants by 2028, exploring international expansion, and advancing clinical programs for its next-gen OCS Heart and Lung platforms. Despite expected minor seasonal fluctuations in the third quarter, TransMedics remains focused on sustaining its upward momentum and expanding its market presence.TransMedics Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
TransMedics Group demonstrates strong financial performance with impressive revenue growth and improved operational profitability in the TTM period. The balance sheet is stable with manageable leverage, although liabilities have increased. Cash flow management has significantly improved, reflecting efficient capital use. The company is well-positioned for potential growth but should monitor its leverage levels.Income Statement
TransMedics Group has demonstrated a strong revenue growth trajectory with a significant increase in total revenue from $93.46M in 2022 to $531.29M in the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) period. Gross profit margin improved to 59.8% in TTM, indicating efficient cost management. Net profit margin stands at 13.5% in TTM, reflecting enhanced profitability. However, the company faced a negative EBIT margin in past years, indicating volatility, which is mitigated in the latest TTM results.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 1.44 in TTM, suggesting a balanced approach to leverage. The return on equity (ROE) improved significantly to 22.5% in TTM, driven by profitability gains. The equity ratio is 35.7%, showcasing a solid equity base. The company has maintained sufficient cash reserves, yet the total liabilities have increased, posing potential risks.78
Positive
Cash Flow
TransMedics Group has shown a positive shift in operating cash flow to $115.27M in TTM from a negative position in previous years. Free cash flow turned positive, marking a substantial improvement in cash flow management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.61, indicating strong cash conversion efficiency. Although capital expenditures are significant, the overall cash flow profile is robust.80
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 531.29M | 441.54M | 241.62M | 93.46M | 30.26M | 25.64M |
| Gross Profit | 317.68M | 262.08M | 154.09M | 65.27M | 21.16M | 16.64M |
| EBITDA | 111.94M | 69.95M | -7.60M | -28.96M | -38.49M | -23.15M |
| Net Income | 71.66M | 35.46M | -25.03M | -36.23M | -44.22M | -28.75M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 890.52M | 804.08M | 706.05M | 277.15M | 134.89M | 152.03M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 400.57M | 336.65M | 394.81M | 201.18M | 92.45M | 125.64M |
| Total Debt | 518.82M | 518.29M | 515.95M | 67.56M | 8.60M | 34.66M |
| Total Liabilities | 572.42M | 575.47M | 568.85M | 89.77M | 67.04M | 48.13M |
| Stockholders Equity | 318.10M | 228.60M | 137.20M | 187.38M | 67.85M | 103.89M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 17.35M | -80.94M | -192.09M | -57.72M | -32.38M | -30.72M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 115.27M | 48.80M | -13.03M | -45.82M | -28.86M | -30.27M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -97.48M | -129.30M | -193.95M | 54.51M | 29.27M | -41.60M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 19.16M | 22.87M | 400.42M | 167.93M | 1.39M | 75.55M |
TransMedics Group Technical Analysis
Neutral
119.85
Price Trends
122.33
Negative
113.28
Positive
92.18
Positive
Market Momentum
1.14
Positive
48.36
Neutral
21.45
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TMDX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 119.85 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 120.87, below the 50-day MA of 122.33, and above the 200-day MA of 92.18, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.14 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TMDX.
TransMedics Group Risk Analysis
TransMedics Group disclosed 71 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TransMedics Group reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
TransMedics Group Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $4.18B | 63.03 | 28.21% | ― | 48.09% | 2410.18% | |
73 Outperform | $1.69B | 26.17 | 19.29% | ― | 40.98% | 34.80% | |
61 Neutral | $2.92B | 30.62 | -17.87% | ― | 8.57% | -1154.64% | |
55 Neutral | $2.04B | ― | -5.01% | ― | 7.44% | -109.83% | |
53 Neutral | $2.19B | ― | -26.40% | ― | 55.71% | 24.37% | |
51 Neutral | $7.82B | -0.16 | -39.78% | 2.19% | 21.38% | -1.56% | |
50 Neutral | $1.14B | ― | -38.92% | ― | 3.53% | -2309.98% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
TMDX
TransMedics Group
119.85
-50.32
-29.57%
AORT
Artivion
44.83
18.30
68.98%
IART
Integra Lifesciences
14.86
-6.10
-29.10%
UFPT
Ufp Technologies
225.74
-108.87
-32.54%
LIVN
LivaNova
55.90
9.27
19.88%
PRCT
PROCEPT BioRobotics
41.23
-36.79
-47.15%
TransMedics Group Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
TransMedics Group Holds 2025 Annual Shareholders Meeting
Positive
May 23, 2025
On May 22, 2025, TransMedics Group, Inc. held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where several key proposals were voted on. The shareholders elected eight directors to serve on the Board until the 2026 Annual Meeting, approved the compensation for the company’s executive officers, and ratified the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. These decisions are expected to impact the company’s governance and financial oversight positively.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.