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TransMedics Group Inc (TMDX)
NASDAQ:TMDX
US Market
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TransMedics Group (TMDX) AI Stock Analysis

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TMDX

TransMedics Group

(NASDAQ:TMDX)

Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$126.00
▲(19.73%Upside)
The strong earnings call and positive financial performance are significant strengths, but technical indicators and valuation concerns, such as a high P/E ratio and negative cash flow, temper the overall score.
Positive Factors
Earnings
TransMedics is expected to exceed consensus sales and EPS expectations this quarter.
Market Growth
The company is growing the organ transplant market rapidly, addressing the supply-plagued market through extended DBD and more significantly by DCD donors.
Sales Performance
US sales of TMDX reached $144.8 million, representing an increase of roughly 34% year-over-year.
Negative Factors
Management Outlook
Management may take a more conservative outlook to second-half guidance due to typical seasonality in the business.
Regulatory Challenges
The FDA's interim response to the citizen petition is expected to be neutral, which is de facto negative, as it signals no likely action by the agency.
Seasonality Impact
Year-over-year industry volumes have shown seasonal weakness in the third quarter, likely due to summer vacations of transplant staff.

TransMedics Group (TMDX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

TransMedics Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTransMedics Group, Inc. is a medical technology company that specializes in developing advanced organ transplant systems. The company is renowned for its Organ Care System (OCS), which is designed to improve outcomes for organ transplant patients by enabling enhanced preservation, assessment, and transportation of donor organs. Operating primarily within the healthcare and medical technology sectors, TransMedics aims to address the limitations of traditional cold storage methods and expand the availability of viable organs for transplantation.
How the Company Makes MoneyTransMedics makes money primarily through the sale and leasing of its Organ Care System (OCS) devices and the associated single-use disposable products required for each organ transplant procedure. The company generates revenue from hospitals and transplant centers that purchase or lease the OCS for heart, lung, and liver transplants. Additionally, TransMedics may benefit from partnerships with healthcare institutions and research organizations that utilize its technology for clinical studies and trials. The company also engages in strategic collaborations to expand the adoption and application of its systems in various markets, thereby contributing to its revenue growth.

TransMedics Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Organ
Revenue by Organ
Details revenue generated from different organ transplant solutions, indicating which areas are most lucrative and where there might be potential for expansion or increased market share.
Chart InsightsTransMedics' revenue growth is driven by significant gains in the liver segment, which has seen a remarkable increase in market share from 17% to 27% in 2024. This aligns with the company's overall strong performance, achieving its first year of positive cash flow and a substantial increase in U.S. revenue. However, challenges remain with gross margin pressures and flat international revenue. The company's focus on expanding logistics and investing in next-gen technology is crucial for sustaining growth and addressing operational hurdles.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

TransMedics Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 12.92%|
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong revenue growth and operational efficiency improvements, particularly in the U.S. market and logistics services. However, challenges remain in international revenue growth, service gross margin, and managing increased operating expenses. Despite these lowlights, the overall outlook is positive with raised revenue guidance and significant strategic advancements.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Revenue Growth
Total revenue for Q1 2025 was $143.5 million, representing approximately 48% growth year-over-year and 18% sequential growth from Q4 2024.
Strong Performance in Transplant Services
TransMedics transplant services revenue for Q1 was approximately $55.3 million, up 56% year-over-year and 18.5% sequentially.
Improved Gross Margin
Overall gross margins for Q1 improved to 61.5%, up from 59% in Q4 2024.
Significant Operating Profit Increase
Operating profit was $27.4 million in Q1, representing approximately 19% of total revenue and up significantly from 7% of total revenue in Q4 2024.
Successful Expansion in Logistics
Transplant Logistics services revenue for Q1 was $26.1 million, representing approximately 80% year-over-year and 20% sequential growth.
Raised Full-Year Revenue Guidance
Full-year 2025 revenue guidance was raised to between $565 million and $585 million, representing approximately 28% to 32% growth over full-year 2024.
Negative Updates
Flat International Revenue
OUS revenue was $4 million, down 1% from Q1 2024 and up only 4% sequentially, indicating challenges in international growth.
Service Gross Margin Challenges
Service gross margin declined 632 basis points versus Q1 2024, primarily driven by the higher proportion of the aviation business.
Higher Operating Expenses
Total operating expenses for Q1 2025 were approximately $61 million, up 28% year-over-year, driven by a 51% increase in R&D and a 21% increase in SG&A.
Cash Flow Concerns
The company ended the quarter with $310 million in cash, down $26.5 million from December 31, 2024, due to investments in additional aircraft.
Company Guidance
During TransMedics' first-quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided updated financial guidance reflecting a robust performance. Total revenue for Q1 2025 reached $143.5 million, marking approximately 48% year-over-year growth and 18% sequential growth, driven by increased adoption of the OCS NOP platform for liver and heart transplants. The company's transplant services revenue rose to $55.3 million, up 56% from the previous year. Operating profit for Q1 was reported at $27.4 million, constituting 19% of total revenue, compared to 7% in Q4 2024. The gross margin improved to 61.5%. For fiscal year 2025, TransMedics raised its full-year revenue guidance to $565-$585 million, representing 28%-32% growth over 2024. The company plans to launch new heart and lung clinical programs in the second half of 2025, with expected contributions primarily in 2026. Despite external distractions, TransMedics maintained strong operational execution, underscoring resilience and support from the transplant clinical community.

TransMedics Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
TransMedics exhibits strong revenue growth and improving margins, positioning it well in the industry. However, high debt levels and negative free cash flow indicate financial risks that require careful management.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
The company shows strong revenue growth from $25.6M in 2020 to $488.2M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), indicating a robust growth trajectory. Gross profit margin improved significantly, demonstrating operational efficiency. EBIT and EBITDA margins have turned positive, reflecting improved profitability. However, net profit margins remain modest, highlighting room for further profitability improvements.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet is strengthened by increasing stockholders' equity, reaching $266.3M in TTM from $103.9M in 2020. The debt-to-equity ratio indicates a moderate leverage level, but the company has maintained a healthy equity ratio. However, the high total debt of $518.4M could pose a risk if earnings do not continue to grow.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Free cash flow remains negative despite improvements in operating cash flow, indicating cash generation challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests adequate cash conversion, but high capital expenditures impact free cash flow. Continued growth in operating cash flow is essential to support investments and reduce reliance on external financing.
Breakdown
Income Statement
Total Revenue
Gross Profit
EBITDA
Net Income
Balance Sheet
Total Assets
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
Total Debt
Total Liabilities
Stockholders Equity
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
Investing Cash Flow
Financing Cash Flow

TransMedics Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price105.24
Price Trends
50DMA
124.77
Negative
100DMA
103.51
Positive
200DMA
91.81
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-5.63
Positive
RSI
35.06
Neutral
STOCH
37.15
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TMDX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 105.24 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 115.65, below the 50-day MA of 124.77, and above the 200-day MA of 91.81, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -5.63 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TMDX.

TransMedics Group Risk Analysis

TransMedics Group disclosed 71 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TransMedics Group reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

TransMedics Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (46)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
$1.89B29.9719.36%34.43%31.90%
68
Neutral
$3.56B77.3522.99%64.43%
68
Neutral
$1.34B-7.25%5.94%-115.82%
61
Neutral
$2.37B30.62-19.69%7.97%-592.40%
54
Neutral
$2.99B-27.62%59.36%19.87%
52
Neutral
$1.02B-1.85%6.19%-174.69%
46
Neutral
C$205.70M-3.34-23.14%2.45%20.79%-0.36%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TMDX
TransMedics Group
104.83
-33.60
-24.27%
AORT
Artivion
31.31
4.08
14.98%
IART
Integra Lifesciences
12.86
-12.17
-48.62%
UFPT
Ufp Technologies
244.70
-72.20
-22.78%
LIVN
LivaNova
43.99
-7.31
-14.25%
PRCT
PROCEPT BioRobotics
53.84
-8.82
-14.08%

TransMedics Group Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
TransMedics Group Holds 2025 Annual Shareholders Meeting
Positive
May 23, 2025

On May 22, 2025, TransMedics Group, Inc. held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where several key proposals were voted on. The shareholders elected eight directors to serve on the Board until the 2026 Annual Meeting, approved the compensation for the company’s executive officers, and ratified the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. These decisions are expected to impact the company’s governance and financial oversight positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (TMDX) stock is a Buy with a $109.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TransMedics Group stock, see the TMDX Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 16, 2025