TransMedics Group (TMDX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.83B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.01M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 105.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.43
• Revenue Growth: 64.43%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 728
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Medical - Devices
• EPS (TTM): 0.70
• Shares Outstanding: 33,833,790
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 784,193
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,010,960
• PEG Ratio: 2.18
• Price to Book (P/B): 9.74
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -31.60
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.35
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.00
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.82
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.43
• 1Y Price Target: $124.00
• Price Target Upside: -13.21% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: $156.00 ▲(9.18%Upside)

TransMedics Group's impressive revenue growth and positive earnings call are significant strengths, contributing to a strong overall outlook. However, high valuation and cash flow challenges slightly temper the overall score. Technical indicators suggest bullish momentum, but the overbought condition warrants caution.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

US sales are estimated to be $173M, up by approximately 60% year over year.

Market Expansion

FDA approval to expand OCS Liver's label is expected, which could significantly increase on-label usage.

Transplant Market Growth

Transplant data from UNOS showed strong growth in heart and DCD liver trends, which is a positive indicator for TMDX.

Negative Factors

Heart Transplant Trends

There is a decline in heart transplants.

Regulatory Challenges

The interim response to the citizen petition, expected to be neutral, is considered a de facto negative.

Transplant Segment Performance

Total lung transplants declined by 1% month-over-month, and DCD lung transplants declined 17% month-over-month, indicating a weaker performance in this segment for TMDX.

TransMedics Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

TransMedics Group, Inc. is a medical technology company that specializes in developing advanced organ transplant systems. The company is renowned for its Organ Care System (OCS), which is designed to improve outcomes for organ transplant patients by enabling enhanced preservation, assessment, and transportation of donor organs. Operating primarily within the healthcare and medical technology sectors, TransMedics aims to address the limitations of traditional cold storage methods and expand the availability of viable organs for transplantation.

How the Company Makes Money

TransMedics makes money primarily through the sale and leasing of its Organ Care System (OCS) devices and the associated single-use disposable products required for each organ transplant procedure. The company generates revenue from hospitals and transplant centers that purchase or lease the OCS for heart, lung, and liver transplants. Additionally, TransMedics may benefit from partnerships with healthcare institutions and research organizations that utilize its technology for clinical studies and trials. The company also engages in strategic collaborations to expand the adoption and application of its systems in various markets, thereby contributing to its revenue growth.

TransMedics Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

TransMedics Group demonstrates impressive revenue growth and improving margins, positioning it favorably in the medical devices industry. However, high debt levels and negative free cash flow necessitate careful management and strategic focus on cash generation.

Income Statement

The company shows strong revenue growth from $25.6M in 2020 to $488.2M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), indicating a robust growth trajectory. Gross profit margin improved significantly, demonstrating operational efficiency. EBIT and EBITDA margins have turned positive, reflecting improved profitability. However, net profit margins remain modest, highlighting room for further profitability improvements.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is strengthened by increasing stockholders' equity, reaching $266.3M in TTM from $103.9M in 2020. The debt-to-equity ratio indicates a moderate leverage level, but the company has maintained a healthy equity ratio. However, the high total debt of $518.4M could pose a risk if earnings do not continue to grow.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow remains negative despite improvements in operating cash flow, indicating cash generation challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests adequate cash conversion, but high capital expenditures impact free cash flow. Continued growth in operating cash flow is essential to support investments and reduce reliance on external financing.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
488.23M	441.54M	241.62M	93.46M	30.26M	25.64M
	Gross Profit
290.25M	262.08M	154.09M	65.27M	21.16M	16.64M
	EBIT
52.52M	37.50M	-28.73M	-31.44M	-39.43M	-26.38M
	EBITDA
82.66M	69.95M	-7.60M	-28.96M	-38.49M	-23.15M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
48.95M	35.46M	-25.03M	-36.23M	-44.22M	-28.75M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
310.14M	336.65M	394.81M	201.18M	92.45M	125.64M
	Total Assets
837.53M	804.08M	706.05M	277.15M	134.89M	152.03M
	Total Debt
518.41M	518.29M	515.95M	67.56M	8.60M	34.66M
	Net Debt
208.27M	181.64M	121.13M	-133.63M	-16.98M	10.08M
	Total Liabilities
571.22M	575.47M	568.85M	89.77M	67.04M	48.13M
	Stockholders Equity
266.31M	228.60M	137.20M	187.38M	67.85M	103.89M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-63.23M	-80.94M	-192.09M	-57.72M	-32.38M	-30.72M
	Operating Cash Flow
49.38M	48.80M	-13.03M	-45.82M	-28.86M	-30.27M
	Investing Cash Flow
-112.17M	-129.30M	-193.95M	54.51M	29.27M	-41.60M
	Financing Cash Flow
22.72M	22.87M	400.42M	167.93M	1.39M	75.55M

TransMedics Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 142.88
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TMDX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 142.88 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 130.77, above the 50-day MA of 107.12, and above the 200-day MA of 96.47, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 10.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 81.99 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.35 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TMDX.

TransMedics Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
UFPT	81 Outperform	$1.80B	28.54	19.36%	―	34.43%	31.90%
TMDX	74 Outperform	$4.83B	105.01	22.99%	―	64.43%	―
AORT	68 Neutral	$1.21B	―	-7.25%	―	5.94%	-115.82%
LIVN	66 Neutral	$2.50B	30.62	-19.69%	―	7.97%	-592.40%
PRCT	60 Neutral	$3.35B	―	-27.62%	―	59.36%	19.87%
Sector *	54 Neutral	$5.37B	3.26	-45.10%	3.30%	16.81%	0.02%
IART	52 Neutral	$944.98M	―	-1.85%	―	6.19%	-174.69%

TransMedics Group Corporate Events

TransMedics Group Holds 2025 Annual Shareholders Meeting

On May 22, 2025, TransMedics Group, Inc. held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where several key proposals were voted on. The shareholders elected eight directors to serve on the Board until the 2026 Annual Meeting, approved the compensation for the company’s executive officers, and ratified the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. These decisions are expected to impact the company’s governance and financial oversight positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (TMDX) stock is a Buy with a $109.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TransMedics Group stock, see the TMDX Stock Forecast page.