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Treace Medical Concepts
(NASDAQ:TMCI)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$4.50
▲(12.50% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/07/26
TMCI’s score is primarily constrained by weak financial performance (ongoing operating losses and persistent cash burn alongside slowing/declining revenue trends), partially offset by improving balance-sheet leverage and a cautiously constructive earnings update (tighter EBITDA-loss outlook and sharply improved cash usage). Technicals are supportive with the stock trading above major moving averages, while valuation is difficult to justify on earnings due to the negative P/E and lack of dividend yield.
Positive Factors
High, stable gross margins (~80%)
Sustained ~80% gross margins indicate durable product-level economics and strong pricing power for implants and disposables. High product margins provide structural cushion to fund R&D and commercial investment, supporting long-term scalability even if top-line growth moderates.
Negative Factors
Consistent negative operating and free cash flow
Persistent cash burn constrains financial flexibility and forces reliance on external financing or capital discipline. Even with recent improvement, continued negative operating/free cash flow limits ability to self‑fund expansion, increases execution risk for product rollouts and heightens refinancing vulnerability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High, stable gross margins (~80%)
Sustained ~80% gross margins indicate durable product-level economics and strong pricing power for implants and disposables. High product margins provide structural cushion to fund R&D and commercial investment, supporting long-term scalability even if top-line growth moderates.
Read all positive factors
Treace Medical Concepts (TMCI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$279.60M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)918.48K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.51
Revenue Growth-1.66%
EPS Growth-12.59%
CountryUS
Employees450
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Devices
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.93
Shares Outstanding64,872,980
10 Day Avg. Volume1,009,218
30 Day Avg. Volume918,480
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.79
Price to Book (P/B)1.77
Price to Sales (P/S)0.73
P/FCF Ratio-5.26
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.50Price Target Upside37.50% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.9
Revenue Forecast (FY)$206.24M
Treace Medical Concepts Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Treace Medical Concepts, Inc., a medical technology company, designs, manufactures, and markets medical devices in the United States. The company offers Lapiplasty System, enables surgeons to correct all three dimensions of the bunion deformity, s...
How the Company Makes Money
TMCI makes money primarily by selling medical devices used in bunion and midfoot surgical procedures. Its core revenue stream is the sale of procedure-related products—implants, instrumentation, and related disposable/single-use items—associated w...
Treace Medical Concepts Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call is cautiously positive. Management reported accelerating case volumes, improving surgeon adoption of new products, tightened operating expenses (–8%), improved adjusted EBITDA and a large pipeline of product launches and TAM expansion. They raised full‑year revenue guidance modestly and materially reduced YTD cash usage (–57%). However, top-line pressure persists (Q2 revenue down 4% and full‑year guidance still implies a decline of up to 4%), gross margin compressed slightly, and the company remains EBITDA‑negative for the year, relying on a seasonal Q4 and successful execution of new product rollouts to return to growth. Balancing the clear commercial momentum and improved profitability metrics against ongoing mix headwinds, negative adjusted EBITDA guidance for the year, and execution/competitive risks, the positives outweigh the negatives but warrant cautious monitoring.Positive Updates
Revenue and Guidance Update
Q2 revenue of $45.4 million (down 4% YoY). Company raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $204M–$212M (implies a decline of 4% to 0% vs. 2025, up from prior guidance of $202M–$212M) and expects to return to positive revenue growth in its seasonally strongest Q4.
Negative Updates
Year-over-Year Revenue Decline
Revenue declined 4% in Q2 2026 vs. Q2 2025; full-year guidance still implies a decline of 4% to flat versus 2025, indicating top-line pressure until seasonally strong Q4.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Guidance Update
Q2 revenue of $45.4 million (down 4% YoY). Company raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $204M–$212M (implies a decline of 4% to 0% vs. 2025, up from prior guidance of $202M–$212M) and expects to return to positive revenue growth in its seasonally strongest Q4.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Treace raised full‑year 2026 revenue guidance to $204–$212 million (down 4% to 0% vs. FY2025; prior guide $202–$212M) and tightened adjusted‑EBITDA guidance to a loss of $3–$5 million (prior $4–$6M; FY2025 adjusted‑EBITDA loss was $3.9M), while reiterating an expected ~50% reduction in cash usage for FY2026 vs. FY2025. Management said revenue will likely decline through Q3 before returning to positive growth in the seasonally strongest Q4, with a planned Q3 step‑up versus Q2 (Q2 revenue $45.4M, down 4% YoY; Q2 adjusted‑EBITDA loss $3.5M; Q2 net loss $15.9M or $0.24/share; gross margin 78.5%; operating expenses $50.6M). The company reported $45.6M of cash and marketable securities as of June 30, a YTD cash‑usage reduction of 57% ($3.6M), and cited commercial momentum (over 3,300 surgeon customers; 40% of Lapiplasty users have tried at least one 2025 bunion system, up from 35%), plus upcoming product rollouts (SuperBite full commercialization in Q3, Lapiplasty Lightning limited launch in Q4) as drivers of the back‑half recovery.Treace Medical Concepts Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
27
Negative
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
26
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 205.31M | 212.69M | 209.36M | 187.12M | 141.84M | 94.42M |
| Gross Profit | 163.12M | 169.75M | 168.26M | 151.94M | 114.31M | 77.53M |
| EBITDA | -47.78M | -43.18M | -42.07M | -39.01M | -36.28M | -15.81M |
| Net Income | -59.52M | -59.00M | -55.74M | -49.53M | -42.81M | -20.55M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 181.06M | 190.58M | 217.09M | 251.91M | 159.02M | 140.82M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 45.62M | 48.37M | 75.68M | 123.20M | 81.25M | 105.83M |
| Total Debt | 13.09M | 13.98M | 69.65M | 70.30M | 68.59M | 29.36M |
| Total Liabilities | 113.32M | 103.25M | 104.20M | 113.97M | 98.50M | 47.75M |
| Stockholders Equity | 67.74M | 87.33M | 112.89M | 137.94M | 60.53M | 93.07M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -25.05M | -29.49M | -48.76M | -46.03M | -45.49M | -19.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -14.58M | -15.97M | -37.17M | -34.58M | -30.65M | -17.19M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 17.65M | 13.25M | 35.38M | -81.30M | -76.52M | -2.71M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.48M | 2.08M | 160.00K | 109.38M | 20.81M | 107.65M |
Treace Medical Concepts Technical Analysis
Positive
4.00
Price Trends
4.14
Positive
3.02
Positive
3.00
Positive
Market Momentum
0.15
Negative
59.86
Neutral
68.14
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TMCI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.34, below the 50-day MA of 4.14, and above the 200-day MA of 3.00, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TMCI.
Treace Medical Concepts Risk Analysis
Treace Medical Concepts disclosed 66 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Treace Medical Concepts reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Treace Medical Concepts Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $18.17B | 24.27 | 6.11% | 1.05% | 9.23% | -14.66% | |
72 Outperform | $124.86B | 33.47 | 16.36% | 1.05% | 8.48% | 27.36% | |
71 Outperform | $13.10B | 21.11 | 12.25% | 2.56% | 6.30% | 52.96% | |
71 Outperform | $1.10B | 31.11 | 28.39% | ― | 1.52% | ― | |
67 Neutral | $1.39B | 24.99 | 5.51% | 2.02% | 3.86% | -48.06% | |
52 Neutral | $279.60M | -4.44 | -69.50% | ― | -1.66% | -12.59% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
TMCI
Treace Medical Concepts
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-1.63
-25.51%
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ZBH
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96.55
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Treace Medical Concepts Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Treace Medical Shareholders Back Directors, Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 20, 2026
At its annual meeting of stockholders held on May 19, 2026, Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. shareholders elected Class II directors Lance A. Berry, Elizabeth S. Hanna and Jane E. Kiernan to three-year terms ending with the 2029 annual meeting. The v...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.