Treace Medical Concepts (TMCI)
NASDAQ:TMCI
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Treace Medical Concepts
(NASDAQ:TMCI)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$2.00
▲(3.09% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/09/26
TMCI scores low-to-mid primarily due to weak financial performance—ongoing losses and negative free cash flow despite strong gross margins and improved leverage. Guidance points to flat-to-declining 2026 revenue and continued adjusted EBITDA losses, which caps the outlook, while technicals provide only moderate support given short-term strength but a still-weak longer-term trend.
Positive Factors
High Gross Margins
Consistently ~80% product gross margins provide durable per-procedure economics that cushion EBITA sensitivity to revenue swings. High gross margin supports long-term operating leverage as adoption grows and helps fund commercialization without immediate margin erosion.
Negative Factors
Persistent Negative Cash Flow
Operating and free cash flow remain chronically negative, forcing reliance on cash reserves and credit. Persistent outflows constrain reinvestment capacity, raise refinancing risk if growth stalls, and limit margin improvements absent continued cash discipline or external funding.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High Gross Margins
Consistently ~80% product gross margins provide durable per-procedure economics that cushion EBITA sensitivity to revenue swings. High gross margin supports long-term operating leverage as adoption grows and helps fund commercialization without immediate margin erosion.
Read all positive factors
Treace Medical Concepts (TMCI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$130.22M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)918.48K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.38
Revenue Growth-1.66%
EPS Growth-12.59%
CountryUS
Employees477
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Devices
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.97
Shares Outstanding64,784,440
10 Day Avg. Volume1,009,218
30 Day Avg. Volume918,480
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.79
Price to Book (P/B)1.77
Price to Sales (P/S)0.73
P/FCF Ratio-5.26
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.03
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.65
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.81
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-2.80
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.08Price Target Upside110.48% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.91
Revenue Forecast (FY)$205.92M
Treace Medical Concepts Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Treace Medical Concepts, Inc., an orthopedic medical device company, engages in the design, manufacture, and marketing of medical devices for foot and ankle surgeons in the United States. It offers Lapiplasty procedure that allows podiatric surgeo...
How the Company Makes Money
TMCI makes money primarily by selling foot-and-ankle surgical products used in operating rooms to correct bunions and related deformities. Revenue is generated from (1) procedure-driven sales of proprietary implant systems and related disposable/s...
Treace Medical Concepts Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 27, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture: the company demonstrated meaningful operational progress — expanding its product portfolio, accelerating surgeon adoption, materially reducing cash burn and improving full-year adjusted EBITDA vs prior year — and secured liquidity. However, these positives are offset by near-term revenue pressure driven by a mix shift toward lower-priced products, market softness in elective foot and ankle procedures, a sizable Q4 GAAP net loss increase, and guidance that implies flat-to-declining revenue for 2026 with an expectation of an adjusted EBITDA loss. Management expects improvements later in 2026 (stronger Q3/Q4) as new higher-ASP products launch and adoption deepens, but the current outlook and recent quarterly results temper the outlook.Positive Updates
Expanded Product Portfolio and TAM Expansion
Launched 3 new bunion systems in 2025 (Nanoplasty, Percuplasty 3D MIS, SpeedMTP) plus ongoing Lapiplasty innovations (Micro-Lapiplasty, planned Lapiplasty Lightning and Speed TMT). Company estimates these new launches expand accessible market (TAM) materially and plans two additional 2026 launches that expand TAM by an estimated $300 million (SuperBite screws, Speed XM).
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline and Q4 Results
Fourth quarter 2025 revenue was $62.5 million, down 9% year-over-year. Management cited a revenue mix shift toward lower-priced products as a primary driver of the decline.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Expanded Product Portfolio and TAM Expansion
Launched 3 new bunion systems in 2025 (Nanoplasty, Percuplasty 3D MIS, SpeedMTP) plus ongoing Lapiplasty innovations (Micro-Lapiplasty, planned Lapiplasty Lightning and Speed TMT). Company estimates these new launches expand accessible market (TAM) materially and plans two additional 2026 launches that expand TAM by an estimated $300 million (SuperBite screws, Speed XM).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Treace initiated 2026 guidance calling for full-year revenue of $200 million to $212 million (a decline of 6% to 0% vs. full-year 2025), with revenue declines expected to continue until the seasonally strongest Q4 and Q1 revenue forecast to step down ~27% vs. Q4 2025; the company expects a full-year adjusted EBITDA loss of $4 million to $6 million (vs. a $3.9 million adjusted EBITDA loss in 2025) and expects to reduce cash usage by ~50% in 2026 vs. 2025 (the company used $27.3 million of cash in 2025, implying roughly $13.6 million expected in 2026), while exiting 2025 with $48.4 million of cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities and an additional $115 million credit facility available; for context, Q4 2025 revenue was $62.5 million (down 9% YoY), Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $6.2 million (vs. $11.1 million in Q4 2024), Q4 gross margin was 80.6%, Q4 operating expenses were $56.3 million, and Q4 net loss was $9.4 million, or $0.15 per share.Treace Medical Concepts Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
57
Neutral
Cash Flow
29
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 207.32M | 212.69M | 209.36M | 187.12M | 141.84M | 94.42M |
| Gross Profit | 165.27M | 169.75M | 168.26M | 151.94M | 114.31M | 77.53M |
| EBITDA | -48.00M | -43.18M | -42.07M | -39.01M | -36.28M | -15.81M |
| Net Income | -61.04M | -59.00M | -55.74M | -49.53M | -42.81M | -20.55M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 184.10M | 190.58M | 217.09M | 251.91M | 159.02M | 140.82M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 51.85M | 48.37M | 75.68M | 123.20M | 81.25M | 105.83M |
| Total Debt | 13.55M | 13.98M | 69.65M | 70.30M | 68.59M | 29.36M |
| Total Liabilities | 106.91M | 103.25M | 104.20M | 113.97M | 98.50M | 47.75M |
| Stockholders Equity | 77.19M | 87.33M | 112.89M | 137.94M | 60.53M | 93.07M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -25.96M | -29.49M | -48.76M | -46.03M | -45.49M | -19.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -12.93M | -15.97M | -37.17M | -34.58M | -30.65M | -17.19M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 7.33M | 13.25M | 35.38M | -81.30M | -76.52M | -2.71M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.77M | 2.08M | 160.00K | 109.38M | 20.81M | 107.65M |
Treace Medical Concepts Technical Analysis
Neutral
1.94
Price Trends
1.66
Positive
2.15
Negative
4.16
Negative
Market Momentum
0.11
Negative
59.59
Neutral
70.97
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TMCI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1.94 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.53, above the 50-day MA of 1.66, and below the 200-day MA of 4.16, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TMCI.
Treace Medical Concepts Risk Analysis
Treace Medical Concepts disclosed 66 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Treace Medical Concepts reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Treace Medical Concepts Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $875.96M | 48.32 | 16.27% | ― | 1.52% | ― | |
72 Outperform | $578.57M | -83.60 | 9.70% | ― | 17.18% | 34.07% | |
56 Neutral | $542.87M | -130.15 | -11.00% | ― | 20.19% | 40.88% | |
52 Neutral | $457.45M | -8.79 | -11.42% | ― | 14.52% | 4.11% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
50 Neutral | $470.91M | -5.55 | -13.44% | ― | 2.59% | 59.39% | |
45 Neutral | $130.22M | -1.20 | -69.50% | ― | -1.66% | -12.59% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
TMCI
Treace Medical Concepts
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Treace Medical Concepts Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Treace Medical Concepts Announces Leadership Transition and Outlook
Positive
Apr 9, 2026
Treace Medical Concepts said Chief Commercial Officer Gaetano M. Guglielmino would depart at the close of business on April 8, 2026, with his duties redistributed among existing staff and the senior vice president of sales now reporting directly t...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.