Treace Medical Concepts (TMCI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $152.92M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 918.48K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.97
• Revenue Growth: 7.90%
• EPS Growth: 19.92%
• Country: US
• Employees: 477
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Devices
• EPS (TTM): -0.26
• Shares Outstanding: 63,718,075
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,009,218
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 918,480
• PEG Ratio: -0.75
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.09
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.21
• P/FCF Ratio: -9.48
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.38
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.96
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.20
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -6.05
• 1Y Price Target: $5.34
• Price Target Upside: 132.17% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 45 Neutral
• Price Target: $2.00 ▼(-13.04% Downside)

Treace Medical Concepts faces significant financial challenges, with ongoing losses and negative cash flows being the most critical issues. The bearish technical indicators and negative valuation metrics further weigh down the stock's attractiveness. However, recent corporate events provide some positive outlook for future financial flexibility and strategic growth.

Positive Factors

High Gross Margin

An ~80% gross margin indicates durable manufacturing and implant-level profitability. This structural margin strength provides room to fund sales training, R&D, and distribution expansion as procedure volumes scale, supporting long-term margin recovery despite current losses.

Product Portfolio Expansion

Adding three 3D bunion systems materially broadens surgeon choice coverage and addresses evolving preferences. Structurally, a fuller product set reduces single-product dependency, improves competitive positioning, and supports sustainable procedure adoption over the next 2–6 months and beyond.

Secured Financing and Liquidity

The new $125M term/$50M revolver structure materially strengthens the balance sheet and extends runway with non-dilutive capital. This durable financing supports commercialization, surgeon training, and product rollout while reducing near-term refinancing risk.

Negative Factors

Negative Operating and Free Cash Flows

Persistent negative operating and free cash flows indicate the business is consuming liquidity to fund growth and operations. Over months this necessitates continued external financing or cost cuts, constraining strategic flexibility and exposing the company to funding and covenant risk.

Profitability Hampered by High Operating Expenses

Despite strong gross margins, elevated operating expenses (sales, training, G&A) keep net loss and negative ROE persistent. Structurally, until operating cost base is reined in or revenue scale increases materially, returns to shareholders and self-funded growth remain impaired.

Pressure on Core Lapiplasty Volumes

A lasting preference shift to minimally invasive osteotomies reduces demand for Treace's flagship Lapiplasty system, pressuring volumes and ASPs. Even with new products, changing clinical preference is a structural market risk that can slow adoption and margin recovery over multiple quarters.

Treace Medical Concepts Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Treace Medical Concepts, Inc., an orthopedic medical device company, engages in the design, manufacture, and marketing of medical devices for foot and ankle surgeons in the United States. It offers Lapiplasty procedure that allows podiatric surgeons to treat all three dimensions of the bunion, providing patients with a cosmetic and medical improvement. The company also provides Lapiplasty Mini-Incision precision system. In addition, it offers products to address ancillary surgical procedures, including akin osteotomies, weil osteotomies, intercuneiform stabilization, lesser tarsometatarsal joint fusions, and autograft bone harvesting, as well as for MTP fusion. Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

TMCI generates revenue primarily through the sale of its orthopedic surgical products, particularly those related to the Lapiplasty® procedure. The company's revenue model is based on direct sales to hospitals and surgical centers, along with distribution through medical device wholesalers. Key revenue streams include product sales from its proprietary devices, instrumentation, and surgical kits. Additionally, TMCI may benefit from strategic partnerships with healthcare providers and distributors to expand its market reach. The company also invests in ongoing research and development to innovate and diversify its product offerings, which can lead to new revenue opportunities.

Treace Medical Concepts Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Treace Medical Concepts shows consistent revenue growth but struggles with profitability and cash flow management. The company has improved its debt-to-equity ratio, but ongoing losses and negative cash flows pose significant risks.

Income Statement

Treace Medical Concepts shows a consistent revenue growth trend, with a TTM growth rate of 2.4%. However, profitability remains a challenge, as indicated by negative net profit and EBIT margins. The gross profit margin is strong at approximately 80%, suggesting efficient production processes, but high operating expenses are impacting overall profitability.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved significantly to 0.14 in the TTM period, indicating better leverage management. However, the return on equity remains negative, reflecting ongoing losses. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting a balanced asset structure, but the company needs to improve profitability to enhance shareholder returns.

Cash Flow

Treace Medical Concepts faces challenges in cash flow management, with negative operating and free cash flows. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating some efficiency in converting net income to cash, but overall cash flow growth is negative, highlighting the need for improved cash generation strategies.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	218.88M	209.36M	187.12M	141.84M	94.42M	57.37M
Gross Profit	174.83M	168.26M	151.94M	114.31M	77.53M	44.90M
EBITDA	-34.77M	-42.07M	-39.01M	-36.28M	-15.81M	2.06M
Net Income	-50.11M	-55.74M	-49.53M	-42.81M	-20.55M	-3.67M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	196.59M	217.09M	251.91M	159.02M	140.82M	41.81M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	57.42M	75.68M	123.20M	81.25M	105.83M	18.08M
Total Debt	70.37M	69.65M	70.30M	68.59M	29.36M	30.98M
Total Liabilities	107.40M	104.20M	113.97M	98.50M	47.75M	41.03M
Stockholders Equity	89.19M	112.89M	137.94M	60.53M	93.07M	776.00K
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-26.34M	-48.76M	-46.03M	-45.49M	-19.90M	-5.56M
Operating Cash Flow	-12.15M	-37.17M	-34.58M	-30.65M	-17.19M	-4.49M
Investing Cash Flow	7.01M	35.38M	-81.30M	-76.52M	-2.71M	-1.07M
Financing Cash Flow	721.00K	160.00K	109.38M	20.81M	107.65M	11.50M

Treace Medical Concepts Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 2.30
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TMCI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.3 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.65, below the 50-day MA of 2.69, and below the 200-day MA of 5.41, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.80 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TMCI.

Treace Medical Concepts Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TCMD	76 Outperform	$639.47M	36.90	8.80%	―	9.28%	21.00%
BVS	64 Neutral	$642.24M	69.63	4.97%	―	1.58%	―
SIBN	57 Neutral	$726.37M	-32.38	-12.91%	―	23.27%	43.90%
OFIX	55 Neutral	$520.34M	-4.32	-24.60%	―	4.31%	3.26%
KIDS	54 Neutral	$434.34M	-8.84	-12.67%	―	19.90%	-57.90%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
TMCI	45 Neutral	$152.92M	-2.89	-51.63%	―	7.90%	19.92%

Treace Medical Concepts Corporate Events

Treace Medical Issues Preliminary Q4 Results, Highlights Growth

On January 13, 2026, Treace Medical Concepts reported preliminary, unaudited results showing fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $62.1 million to $62.5 million, representing about a 9% year-over-year decline, while full-year 2025 revenue rose modestly by roughly 2% to a range of $212.3 million to $212.7 million, in line with its prior guidance. The company added approximately 202 new active surgeons in 2025 and ended the year with about 3,337 active surgeons, a 6% increase that now represents roughly one-third of the estimated 10,000 U.S. bunion surgeons, with management highlighting mid–single-digit growth in procedure volumes driven by adoption of its 3D bunion technologies despite macroeconomic and product-mix headwinds, and noting that formal 2026 financial guidance will be issued with its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release in February 2026; executives emphasized maintaining Treace’s leading bunion-market position, further expanding procedure penetration and surgeon base, and improving profitability for shareholders as they present these trends to investors at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference on January 14, 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (TMCI) stock is a Buy with a $12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treace Medical Concepts stock, see the TMCI Stock Forecast page.

Treace Medical Completes New Secured Loan Financing Deal

On December 17, 2025, Treace Medical Concepts entered into new five-year senior secured loan agreements with credit funds managed by SLR Capital Partners, establishing up to $175 million in total debt capacity through a $125 million term loan facility and a revolving credit facility that can reach $50 million, replacing prior credit lines with MidCap Financial Trust. The company drew $60 million at closing, used the proceeds to repay its $50 million term loan and $4 million outstanding under its former revolver while incurring $2.3 million in associated prepayment and exit fees, and emerged with approximately $165 million in total liquidity, although the new covenants restrict dividend payments and are secured by substantially all assets, including intellectual property. The financing, which carries SOFR-based interest rates with an initial 48-month interest-only period and potential extension, is intended to provide Treace with non-dilutive capital, enhance balance sheet strength and financial flexibility, and support its efforts to expand its market presence in bunion surgery. Separately, on December 16, 2025, the board appointed veteran healthcare executive and existing director John K. Bakewell as lead independent director, reinforcing governance with an experienced financial and medical device industry leader.

The most recent analyst rating on (TMCI) stock is a Hold with a $2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Treace Medical Concepts stock, see the TMCI Stock Forecast page.