Treace Medical Concepts (TMCI)
NASDAQ:TMCI
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Treace Medical Concepts
(NASDAQ:TMCI)
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Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
$4.00
▲(106.19% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/01/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (ongoing losses and negative free cash flow despite strong gross margins). Technicals are supportive but very overbought, raising near-term reversal risk. Earnings call takeaways are mixed—encouraging product momentum and cash-use improvement plans, but guidance still indicates a revenue decline and profitability pressure. Valuation remains constrained by negative earnings and no dividend support.
Positive Factors
High Gross Margins
Margins near 80% reflect durable product-level economics from proprietary implants and instruments. High gross margins provide a structural buffer to absorb SG&A, support eventual operating leverage as volumes scale, and improve the pathway to profitability if adoption continues.
Negative Factors
Persistent Negative Cash Flow
Operating and free cash flow remain negative across periods; although burn narrowed in 2025/TTM, the business still funds operations via cash outflows. Persistent negative cash generation limits runway, forces financing or deeper cuts, and constrains strategic investments needed to scale.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High Gross Margins
Margins near 80% reflect durable product-level economics from proprietary implants and instruments. High gross margins provide a structural buffer to absorb SG&A, support eventual operating leverage as volumes scale, and improve the pathway to profitability if adoption continues.
Read all positive factors
Treace Medical Concepts (TMCI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$260.14M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)918.48K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.58
Revenue Growth-1.66%
EPS Growth-12.59%
CountryUS
Employees477
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Devices
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.97
Shares Outstanding64,872,980
10 Day Avg. Volume1,009,218
30 Day Avg. Volume918,480
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.79
Price to Book (P/B)1.77
Price to Sales (P/S)0.73
P/FCF Ratio-5.26
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.02
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.27
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.60
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-5.70
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.50Price Target Upside131.96% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.9
Revenue Forecast (FY)$206.33M
Treace Medical Concepts Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Headquartered in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. is an orthopedic medical device enterprise that specializes in the development, manufacturing, and commercialization of surgical tools for foot and ankle specialists throug...
How the Company Makes Money
TMCI makes money primarily by selling foot-and-ankle surgical products used in operating rooms to correct bunions and related deformities. Revenue is generated from (1) procedure-driven sales of proprietary implant systems and related disposable/s...
Treace Medical Concepts Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a mixed picture: commercial execution and product momentum are clear positives (rapid adoption of new systems, expanding TAM, high gross margins, improved cash balance and reduced cash burn expectations), but near-term financials remain challenged (Q1 revenue down 10%, larger net and EBITDA losses, and ASP/mix headwinds). Management is taking a conservative posture—reaffirming guidance while highlighting the path to lapping mix headwinds in the back half of 2026 and expecting revenue growth to return in Q4. Overall, operational improvements and promising adoption trends offset but do not yet fully overcome the near-term revenue and profitability headwinds, leaving the situation balanced between encouraging commercial traction and ongoing financial pressure.Positive Updates
Product Portfolio Expansion and Commercial Progress
Launched multiple new systems (Nanoplasty, Percuplasty 3D MIS, SpeedMTP) and announced upcoming Lapiplasty Lightning, SpeedTMT, SuperBite screws and SpeedXM. Company says these new offerings more than double accessible market relative to Lapiplasty alone and expand TAM by approximately $300M with SuperBite + SpeedXM commercialization planned in Q3 2026.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline in Q1
Revenue was $47.2M in Q1 2026, a decrease of ~10% year-over-year, driven by a shift toward lower-priced minimally invasive products and lower volume of higher-priced bunion procedure kits.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Product Portfolio Expansion and Commercial Progress
Launched multiple new systems (Nanoplasty, Percuplasty 3D MIS, SpeedMTP) and announced upcoming Lapiplasty Lightning, SpeedTMT, SuperBite screws and SpeedXM. Company says these new offerings more than double accessible market relative to Lapiplasty alone and expand TAM by approximately $300M with SuperBite + SpeedXM commercialization planned in Q3 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Treace reaffirmed FY‑2026 revenue guidance of $202.0M–$212.0M (a decline of ~5% to 0% vs. FY‑2025) and expects an adjusted EBITDA loss of $4M–$6M for 2026 (vs. a $3.9M adjusted EBITDA loss in 2025), while targeting a ~50% reduction in cash usage vs. 2025; in Q1 they reported revenue of $47.2M (‑10% YoY), gross margin of 79.3% (vs. 79.7% a year ago), operating expenses of $54.6M (vs. $57.5M), net loss of $18.0M or $0.28/sh (vs. $15.9M, $0.25/sh), adjusted EBITDA loss of $5.5M (vs. $3.8M), cash and marketable securities of $51.9M as of 3/31/26 (up ≈$3.5M from $48.4M on 12/31/25), and mid‑single‑digit procedure volume growth in Q1; management expects revenue declines to improve through the year with growth returning in seasonally strong Q4 (helped by case volume acceleration, lapping of ASP/mix shifts starting around Q3, and contributions from 2026 product launches, including Q3 commercialization of SuperBite/SpeedXM which expands TAM by ≈$300M).Treace Medical Concepts Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
57
Neutral
Cash Flow
29
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 207.32M | 212.69M | 209.36M | 187.12M | 141.84M | 94.42M |
| Gross Profit | 165.27M | 169.75M | 168.26M | 151.94M | 114.31M | 77.53M |
| EBITDA | -46.33M | -43.18M | -42.07M | -39.01M | -36.28M | -15.81M |
| Net Income | -61.04M | -59.00M | -55.74M | -49.53M | -42.81M | -20.55M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 184.10M | 190.58M | 217.09M | 251.91M | 159.02M | 140.82M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 51.85M | 48.37M | 75.68M | 123.20M | 81.25M | 105.83M |
| Total Debt | 13.55M | 13.98M | 69.65M | 70.30M | 68.59M | 29.36M |
| Total Liabilities | 106.91M | 103.25M | 104.20M | 113.97M | 98.50M | 47.75M |
| Stockholders Equity | 77.19M | 87.33M | 112.89M | 137.94M | 60.53M | 93.07M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -25.97M | -29.49M | -48.76M | -46.03M | -45.49M | -19.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -12.93M | -15.97M | -37.17M | -34.58M | -30.65M | -17.19M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 7.33M | 13.25M | 35.38M | -81.30M | -76.52M | -2.71M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.78M | 2.08M | 160.00K | 109.38M | 20.81M | 107.65M |
Treace Medical Concepts Technical Analysis
Positive
1.94
Price Trends
2.72
Positive
2.20
Positive
3.39
Positive
Market Momentum
0.42
Positive
63.57
Neutral
63.19
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TMCI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.94 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.62, below the 50-day MA of 2.72, and below the 200-day MA of 3.39, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.42 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 63.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TMCI.
Treace Medical Concepts Risk Analysis
Treace Medical Concepts disclosed 66 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Treace Medical Concepts reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Treace Medical Concepts Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $591.43M | 29.13 | 9.70% | ― | 17.18% | 34.07% | |
67 Neutral | $734.27M | 20.76 | 16.27% | ― | 1.52% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $701.61M | -40.78 | -9.56% | ― | 16.77% | 39.26% | |
57 Neutral | $466.44M | -10.81 | -11.42% | ― | 14.52% | 4.11% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
48 Neutral | $260.14M | -4.13 | -69.50% | ― | -1.66% | -12.59% | |
48 Neutral | $361.77M | -5.94 | -13.44% | ― | 2.59% | 59.39% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
TMCI
Treace Medical Concepts
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Treace Medical Concepts Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Treace Medical Shareholders Back Directors, Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 20, 2026
At its annual meeting of stockholders held on May 19, 2026, Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. shareholders elected Class II directors Lance A. Berry, Elizabeth S. Hanna and Jane E. Kiernan to three-year terms ending with the 2029 annual meeting. The v...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Treace Medical Concepts Announces Leadership Transition and Outlook
Positive
Apr 9, 2026
Treace Medical Concepts said Chief Commercial Officer Gaetano M. Guglielmino would depart at the close of business on April 8, 2026, with his duties redistributed among existing staff and the senior vice president of sales now reporting directly t...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.