Tilly's (TLYS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $44.80M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 68.00K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.33
• Revenue Growth: -11.10%
• EPS Growth: -10.31%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,410
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Apparel - Retail
• EPS (TTM): -0.05
• Shares Outstanding: 23,167,562
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 56,422
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 68,001
• PEG Ratio: -0.09
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.29
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.23
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.59
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 4.00
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.33
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.23
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -4.98
• 1Y Price Target: $2.25
• Price Target Upside: 41.51% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 48 Neutral
• Price Target: $1.50 ▼(-5.66% Downside)

Tilly's overall stock score is primarily influenced by its weak financial performance, characterized by declining revenues and profitability, and negative cash flows. The valuation is also a concern with a negative P/E ratio. While the earnings call highlights some positive trends, such as improved gross margins and a return to positive comparable net sales, these are offset by ongoing challenges in e-commerce and store closures. Technical analysis provides mixed signals, with the stock trading below key moving averages.

Positive Factors

Gross Margin Improvement

The improvement in gross margin indicates better pricing strategies and cost management, which can enhance profitability and competitive positioning over time.

Positive Comparable Sales

A return to positive comparable sales suggests successful strategic adjustments and potential for sustained revenue growth, boosting long-term business prospects.

AI and Technology Initiatives

Implementing AI tools can optimize pricing and inventory, enhancing operational efficiency and customer satisfaction, supporting long-term growth.

Negative Factors

Declining Total Net Sales

A decline in total net sales reflects challenges in maintaining overall revenue levels, which could impact financial stability and growth potential if not addressed.

E-commerce Sales Decline

The decline in e-commerce sales highlights potential weaknesses in digital strategy, crucial for future growth as consumer shopping habits shift online.

Store Closures

Store closures may reduce physical market presence and sales opportunities, impacting brand visibility and customer reach in the long term.

Tilly's Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tilly's, Inc. is a leading specialty retailer that focuses on providing a wide range of casual apparel, footwear, accessories, and gear for the active lifestyle market. Established in 1982, Tilly's targets a youthful demographic and operates both brick-and-mortar stores and an online platform. The company offers popular brands in surf, skate, and lifestyle categories, catering to both men and women. Tilly's aims to create a unique shopping experience that reflects the active and vibrant culture of its customers.

How the Company Makes Money

Tilly's generates revenue primarily through the sale of branded apparel, footwear, and accessories in its retail stores and online. The company's revenue model includes direct sales from both physical locations and its e-commerce website, where customers can shop a diverse selection of products. Key revenue streams include merchandise sales, which are bolstered by seasonal promotions and brand collaborations. Tilly's also benefits from its partnerships with prominent brands in the action sports and lifestyle sectors, which help to attract customers and increase sales. Additionally, the company may engage in marketing initiatives and loyalty programs to enhance customer retention and drive repeat purchases.

Tilly's Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Tilly's financial performance is under pressure with declining revenues and profitability, increased leverage, and negative cash flows. The income statement shows a significant decline in revenue and profitability, while the balance sheet indicates moderate financial stability with concerning leverage levels. The cash flow analysis highlights liquidity pressures with negative operating and free cash flows.

Income Statement

Tilly's income statement reveals a declining trend in revenue and profitability. The company has experienced negative revenue growth over the past three years, with revenues falling from $775 million in 2022 to $569 million in 2025. The gross profit margin has also decreased significantly, causing a deeper negative net profit margin. EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, indicating operating challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a stable equity ratio of around 30%, but the debt-to-equity ratio has increased due to declining equity. The return on equity is negative, reflecting recent losses. The overall financial stability is moderate, with a concerning leverage level, though cash reserves provide some liquidity cushion.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates negative operating cash flow and free cash flow, highlighting liquidity pressures. The company has struggled to convert net income into cash flow, which is concerning for future operations. Free cash flow growth is negative, and reliance on debt could increase if cash flows do not improve.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	549.60M	569.45M	623.08M	672.28M	775.69M	531.33M
Gross Profit	145.85M	149.70M	165.66M	202.79M	276.66M	142.19M
EBITDA	-36.02M	-37.08M	-18.15M	25.32M	104.43M	16.02M
Net Income	-45.53M	-46.23M	-34.49M	9.68M	64.25M	-1.15M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	345.53M	342.46M	429.55M	475.90M	504.82M	505.47M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	50.68M	46.71M	95.05M	113.28M	139.23M	141.14M
Total Debt	178.63M	193.87M	231.59M	242.00M	247.00M	265.80M
Total Liabilities	263.03M	241.59M	284.68M	298.69M	330.11M	344.85M
Stockholders Equity	82.50M	100.87M	144.87M	177.21M	174.71M	160.62M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-22.75M	-50.24M	-20.69M	-16.54M	49.98M	30.43M
Operating Cash Flow	-17.10M	-42.02M	-6.73M	-1.42M	63.40M	38.90M
Investing Cash Flow	34.90M	15.75M	-19.99M	42.80M	-45.33M	-3.20M
Financing Cash Flow	-3.87M	294.00K	227.00K	-10.06M	-52.06M	-29.65M

Tilly's Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1.59
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TLYS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.59 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.36, below the 50-day MA of 1.59, and below the 200-day MA of 1.78, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.07 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.49 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TLYS.

Tilly's Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
URBN	77 Outperform	$7.02B	14.79	19.34%	―	11.09%	51.51%
AEO	72 Outperform	$3.60B	20.46	12.36%	2.09%	-1.15%	-0.98%
ZUMZ	66 Neutral	$454.05M	―	0.19%	―	1.64%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
TLYS	48 Neutral	$44.80M	―	-43.51%	―	-11.10%	-10.31%
CATO	45 Neutral	$68.73M	-7.78	-5.58%	―	-1.01%	65.04%
CURV	45 Neutral	$140.82M	45.51	―	―	-5.76%	-75.71%

Tilly's Corporate Events

Tilly’s Earnings Call: Balancing Optimism and Challenges

The recent earnings call for Tilly’s reflected a cautiously optimistic outlook, highlighting both achievements and challenges. While the company reported improvements in profitability and product margins, as well as increased social media engagement, it also faced declining net sales, store closures, and setbacks in e-commerce. The sentiment during the call was balanced, acknowledging positive progress alongside significant hurdles.

Tillys Reports Improved Profitability Amid Sales Decline

Tillys, Inc. is a specialty retailer offering casual apparel, footwear, and accessories for young individuals, with a focus on active, outdoor, and social lifestyles, operating both physical stores and an e-commerce platform.