Tilly's (TLYS)
NYSE:TLYS
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Tilly's
(NYSE:TLYS)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$4.50
▲(183.02% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/19/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (ongoing losses, leverage vs. reduced equity, and not-yet-sustainable free cash flow). Offsetting this are strong technical momentum (price well above all major moving averages with positive MACD) and a constructive earnings narrative with improving comps and margins, though near-term loss guidance and lack of full-year guidance limit upside confidence. Valuation is a secondary drag due to negative earnings and no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Gross Margin Expansion
A large, multi-hundred-basis-point product-margin improvement reflects better sourcing, lower markdowns and pricing optimization. Structural margin gains (price-optimization tool, buying/distribution improvements) increase operating leverage and make profitability less dependent on transient traffic spikes.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage vs. Shrinking Equity
High net leverage relative to a reduced equity base materially constrains financial flexibility. If the turnaround stalls, servicing debt or meeting covenants could force asset sales, additional dilution, or curtailed investments, making recovery riskier over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Gross Margin Expansion
A large, multi-hundred-basis-point product-margin improvement reflects better sourcing, lower markdowns and pricing optimization. Structural margin gains (price-optimization tool, buying/distribution improvements) increase operating leverage and make profitability less dependent on transient traffic spikes.
Read all positive factors
Tilly's (TLYS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$126.47M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.34M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.70
Revenue Growth-8.31%
EPS Growth36.10%
CountryUS
Employees1,410
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryApparel - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.10
Shares Outstanding23,167,562
10 Day Avg. Volume6,951,590
30 Day Avg. Volume2,342,797
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.04
Price to Book (P/B)0.52
Price to Sales (P/S)0.08
P/FCF Ratio-75.16
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.98
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.45
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.52
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-28.61
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$3.00Price Target Upside88.68% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.78
Revenue Forecast (FY)$548.90M
Tilly's Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Tilly's, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer of casual apparel, footwear, accessories, and hardgoods for young men and women, and boys and girls in the United States. Its apparel merchandise includes tops, outerwear, bottoms, and dresses; and ac...
How the Company Makes Money
Tilly's makes money primarily by selling merchandise (apparel, footwear, and accessories) to consumers through two main channels: (1) brick-and-mortar retail stores and (2) its e-commerce website. Revenue is generated at the point of sale from pro...
Tilly's Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Sales by Segment
Separates sales across business segments like retail stores, e‑commerce, and wholesale, highlighting channel mix, margin differences, and how shifts between channels affect growth and cost structure.
Separates sales across business segments like retail stores, e‑commerce, and wholesale, highlighting channel mix, margin differences, and how shifts between channels affect growth and cost structure.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyTilly's Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a clear and meaningful turnaround: accelerating comparable sales (10.1% in Q4; +20.1% in Feb), large margin expansion (720 bps increase in overall gross margin and 470 bps product margin improvement), a return to quarterly profitability (Q4 net income of $2.9M), stronger liquidity, and investments that are already delivering operational efficiencies. Remaining challenges include lack of full-year profitability, near-term Q1 losses, lower-than-historical sales per square foot (~$260), continued net store reductions through Q1, and some uncertainty around potential impairment charges and macro sensitivity. Overall, the positive operational and financial momentum and tangible margin/SG&A improvements outweigh the near-term losses and uncertainties.Positive Updates
Q4 Net Sales Growth
Total net sales of $155.1M, up 5.3% year-over-year in the fourth quarter despite ending the year with 17 fewer stores.
Negative Updates
Still Not Profitable on an Annualized Basis
Company is not yet profitable for the full year; management estimates an annualized comparable net sales increase of ~8%–9% would be required to begin generating full-year profitability for fiscal 2026.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Q4 Net Sales Growth
Total net sales of $155.1M, up 5.3% year-over-year in the fourth quarter despite ending the year with 17 fewer stores.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's fiscal 2026 guidance for Q1 calls for total net sales of ~$119.0M–$125.0M (comparable net sales +16% to +22%), product margin expansion of ~310–330 basis points versus last year's Q1, SG&A of about $44.0M–$45.0M (before any potential noncash store impairment charges), a pretax loss roughly $10.1M–$8.0M with a near‑zero effective tax rate, a net loss and loss per share of approximately $0.34–$0.27 (weighted average shares ≈30.1M), and an expected Q1 store count of 220 (net −18 stores, −7.6% year‑over‑year); they also noted February comps of +20.1%, said they are not providing full‑year guidance, and indicated an illustrative annualized comparable sales increase of ~8%–9% would be needed to return to full‑year profitability.Tilly's Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
33
Negative
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
27
Negative
| Breakdown | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 553.59M | 569.45M | 623.08M | 672.28M | 775.69M |
| Gross Profit | 164.47M | 149.70M | 165.66M | 202.79M | 276.66M |
| EBITDA | -8.76M | -37.08M | -18.15M | 25.32M | 104.43M |
| Net Income | -17.45M | -46.23M | -34.49M | 9.68M | 64.25M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 310.76M | 342.46M | 429.55M | 475.90M | 504.82M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 46.31M | 46.71M | 95.05M | 113.28M | 139.23M |
| Total Debt | 170.46M | 193.87M | 231.59M | 242.00M | 247.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 225.62M | 241.59M | 284.68M | 298.69M | 330.11M |
| Stockholders Equity | 85.14M | 100.87M | 144.87M | 177.21M | 174.71M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -589.00K | -50.24M | -20.69M | -16.54M | 49.98M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.10M | -42.02M | -6.73M | -1.42M | 63.40M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 21.16M | 15.75M | -19.99M | 42.80M | -45.33M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | 294.00K | 227.00K | -10.06M | -52.06M |
Tilly's Technical Analysis
Positive
1.59
Price Trends
1.88
Positive
1.75
Positive
1.70
Positive
Market Momentum
0.68
Negative
93.79
Negative
89.04
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TLYS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.59 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.44, below the 50-day MA of 1.88, and below the 200-day MA of 1.70, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.68 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 93.79 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.04 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TLYS.
Tilly's Risk Analysis
Tilly's disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tilly's reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Tilly's Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $5.51B | 13.74 | 17.66% | ― | 11.09% | 51.51% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
56 Neutral | $126.47M | -2.54 | -21.26% | ― | -8.31% | 36.10% | |
56 Neutral | $378.93M | 30.86 | 4.41% | ― | 2.81% | ― | |
54 Neutral | $2.80B | 20.90 | 12.12% | 2.09% | -1.15% | -0.98% | |
46 Neutral | $169.63M | -16.58 | 0.97% | ― | -7.33% | -114.80% | |
42 Neutral | $54.31M | -1.39 | -3.88% | ― | -1.01% | 65.04% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
TLYS
Tilly's
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1.88
81.03%
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Tilly's Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Tillys Elevates Merchandising Leadership Amid Renewed Profit Momentum
Positive
Mar 12, 2026
On March 10, 2026, Tillys promoted Michael J. Cingolani, 48, to executive vice president and chief merchandising officer, recognizing his impact since becoming senior vice president and general merchandising manager in November 2024. The move unde...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.