Tilly's (TLYS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $46.13M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 240.99K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.14
• Revenue Growth: -8.79%
• EPS Growth: -15.17%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,410
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 73
• Industry: Apparel - Retail
• EPS (TTM): -0.74
• Shares Outstanding: 22,845,798
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 158,938
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 240,985
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 4.29
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.35
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.35
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -4.66
• 1Y Price Target: $1.60
• Price Target Upside: 1.27% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

• Rating: 47 Neutral
• Price Target: $1.50 ▼(-5.06% Downside)

Tilly's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its weak financial performance, characterized by declining revenues and profitability, and negative cash flows. The technical analysis and valuation also present challenges, with bearish trends and a negative P/E ratio. However, the appointment of a new CEO and some positive aspects from the earnings call, such as improved sales trends and strong liquidity, provide a glimmer of hope for future improvements.

Tilly's Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tilly's, Inc. (TLYS) is a leading specialty retailer that focuses on providing a wide range of apparel, footwear, accessories, and lifestyle products primarily aimed at the youth and young adult market. The company operates in the retail sector, offering an assortment of products that cater to the action sports culture, including skateboarding, surfing, and snowboarding. Tilly's features a diverse selection of branded merchandise from well-known companies as well as private label products, allowing it to appeal to a broad customer base seeking trendy and functional clothing.

How the Company Makes Money

Tilly's generates revenue primarily through the sale of its merchandise in retail stores and online. The company operates a network of physical stores across various locations, which contributes significantly to its sales volume. Additionally, Tilly's has a robust e-commerce platform that allows customers to shop online, driving further sales and expanding its market reach. Key revenue streams include apparel, footwear, and accessories, which are sourced from a mix of brand partnerships and in-house labels. The company also benefits from seasonal promotions, limited-edition product drops, and collaborations with popular brands that attract customers. Tilly's engages in strategic marketing and social media initiatives to enhance brand visibility and customer engagement, contributing to its overall earnings.

Tilly's Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Tilly's financial performance is concerning with declining revenues, negative profitability, and liquidity pressures. The income statement shows a consistent revenue decline, and the cash flow analysis highlights negative operating and free cash flows, which pose risks to future operations. The balance sheet indicates moderate stability but increased leverage is a concern.

Income Statement

Tilly's income statement reveals a declining trend in revenue and profitability. The company has experienced negative revenue growth over the past three years, with revenues falling from $775 million in 2022 to $569 million in 2025. The gross profit margin has also decreased significantly, causing a deeper negative net profit margin. EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, indicating operating challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a stable equity ratio of around 30%, but the debt-to-equity ratio has increased due to declining equity. The return on equity is negative, reflecting recent losses. The overall financial stability is moderate, with a concerning leverage level, though cash reserves provide some liquidity cushion.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates negative operating cash flow and free cash flow, highlighting liquidity pressures. The company has struggled to convert net income into cash flow, which is concerning for future operations. Free cash flow growth is negative, and reliance on debt could increase if cash flows do not improve.

Breakdown	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	569.45M	623.08M	672.28M	775.69M	531.33M
Gross Profit	149.70M	165.66M	202.79M	276.66M	142.19M
EBITDA	-37.08M	-18.15M	25.59M	104.43M	16.02M
Net Income	-46.23M	-34.49M	9.68M	64.25M	-1.15M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	342.46M	429.55M	475.90M	504.82M	505.47M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	46.71M	95.05M	113.28M	139.23M	141.14M
Total Debt	193.87M	231.59M	242.00M	247.00M	265.80M
Total Liabilities	241.59M	284.68M	298.69M	330.11M	344.85M
Stockholders Equity	100.87M	144.87M	177.21M	174.71M	160.62M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-50.24M	-20.69M	-16.54M	49.98M	30.43M
Operating Cash Flow	-42.02M	-6.73M	-1.42M	63.40M	38.90M
Investing Cash Flow	15.75M	-19.99M	42.80M	-45.33M	-3.20M
Financing Cash Flow	294.00K	227.00K	-10.06M	-52.06M	-29.65M

Tilly's Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1.58
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TLYS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.58 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.63, above the 50-day MA of 1.46, and below the 200-day MA of 2.66, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TLYS.

Tilly's Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BKE	79 Outperform	$2.84B	14.30	44.55%	7.02%	-1.08%	-8.20%
URBN	75 Outperform	$6.95B	16.24	19.55%	―	8.38%	52.18%
AEO	69 Neutral	$2.25B	13.29	12.19%	3.89%	-0.95%	-10.51%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$17.43B	12.62	-6.02%	3.11%	1.71%	-15.47%
ZUMZ	56 Neutral	$275.27M	1,444.55	0.23%	―	3.01%	―
CTRN	52 Neutral	$265.16M	―	-29.52%	―	1.85%	-337.77%
TLYS	47 Neutral	$46.13M	―	-47.54%	―	-8.79%	-15.17%

Tilly's Corporate Events

Tilly’s Announces New CEO Appointment

On July 25, 2025, Tillys announced the appointment of Nathan M. Smith as President and CEO, effective August 18, 2025. Smith, who brings extensive industry experience from roles at Marolina Outdoor, Boardriders, and Oakley, will also join the Board of Directors. This leadership transition, supported by co-founder Hezy Shaked, aims to revitalize the brand and drive business improvements. The agreement with Smith includes a substantial compensation package, stock options, and relocation support, reflecting Tillys’ commitment to strategic growth and leadership stability.

Tilly’s Stockholders Approve Key Proposals at Annual Meeting

At Tilly’s 2025 annual stockholders meeting held on June 11, 2025, stockholders voted on four key proposals. The election of six directors for terms expiring in 2026 was confirmed, and the Third Amended and Restated Tilly’s Equity and Incentive Award Plan was approved. Additionally, the appointment of BDO USA, P.C. as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending January 31, 2026, was ratified, and the compensation of named executive officers for the fiscal year ended February 1, 2025, was approved on a non-binding, advisory basis.