Tilly's (TLYS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $45.41M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 62.68K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.24
• Revenue Growth: -8.31%
• EPS Growth: 36.10%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,410
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Apparel - Retail
• EPS (TTM): -0.05
• Shares Outstanding: 23,167,562
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 46,062
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 62,684
• PEG Ratio: -0.09
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.29
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.23
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.59
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.75
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.31
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.13
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -7.13
• 1Y Price Target: $2.25
• Price Target Upside: 41.51% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 48 Neutral
• Price Target: $1.50 ▼(-5.66% Downside)

Overall score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (large revenue contraction, ongoing losses, and negative free cash flow with elevated leverage). The latest earnings call shows meaningful near-term improvement in comps, margins, and loss reduction, but technicals remain mixed and valuation is constrained by negative earnings and no dividend signal.

Positive Factors

Comparable Sales Recovery

A return to positive comparable store sales across the quarter signals that merchandising, marketing and in-store execution adjustments are resonating with core customers. Sustained positive comps over several months can stabilize top-line trends, support fixed-cost absorption, and provide a base for incremental margin recovery if maintained.

Gross Margin Improvement

A sizeable gross margin expansion from improved initial markups and reduced markdowning reflects better assortment and pricing discipline. If structural (less clearance, improved inventory turns), higher product margins are durable drivers of profitability and reduce reliance on volume recovery alone to restore operating profits.

Product and Tech Initiatives

Investments in AI, RFID and a higher mix of proprietary brands target structural levers: better inventory accuracy, optimized pricing, and higher-margin own-label sales. These initiatives can sustainably reduce markdowns, improve cash conversion and differentiate assortment, supporting longer-term margin and margin stability.

Negative Factors

Severe Revenue Decline

A multi-year, steep revenue contraction erodes scale, diminishes bargaining power with vendors, and weakens fixed-cost leverage. Such a structural decline increases the difficulty of restoring profitability because incremental sales contribute less to covering SG&A and occupancy costs until volumes recover materially.

Negative Free Cash Flow

Sustained negative operating and free cash flow forces reliance on external financing or asset draws, constraining reinvestment in stores, tech, or product development. Continued cash outflows limit the company’s ability to fund turnaround initiatives and increase execution risk if sales improvements stall.

Elevated Leverage and Eroded Equity

High debt relative to diminished equity reduces financial flexibility and raises refinancing risk if results falter. Elevated leverage increases interest and covenant vulnerability, limiting the company’s capacity to invest in inventory or growth initiatives and amplifying downside in a prolonged recovery.

Tilly's Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tilly's, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer of casual apparel, footwear, accessories, and hardgoods for young men and women, and boys and girls in the United States. Its apparel merchandise includes tops, outerwear, bottoms, and dresses; and accessories merchandise comprises backpacks, hydration bottles, hats, sunglasses, small electronics and accessories, handbags, watches, jewelry, and others, as well as hardgoods consists of skateboards, longboards, bikes, roller-skates, and equipment for snowboarding and surfing. The company also provides third-party merchandise assortment across its various product categories. As of March 14, 2022, it operated 241 stores. The company also sells its merchandise through its e-commerce website, tillys.com. Tilly's, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Irvine, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Tilly's generates revenue primarily through the sale of branded apparel, footwear, and accessories in its retail stores and online. The company's revenue model includes direct sales from both physical locations and its e-commerce website, where customers can shop a diverse selection of products. Key revenue streams include merchandise sales, which are bolstered by seasonal promotions and brand collaborations. Tilly's also benefits from its partnerships with prominent brands in the action sports and lifestyle sectors, which help to attract customers and increase sales. Additionally, the company may engage in marketing initiatives and loyalty programs to enhance customer retention and drive repeat purchases.

Tilly's Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals are very weak: steep TTM revenue decline, ongoing operating/net losses, and negative free cash flow. Leverage is high versus equity and equity has eroded, limiting flexibility despite some debt reduction.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) performance remains weak: revenue is down sharply (about -70% year-over-year) and profitability is negative, with a gross margin around 28% but operating and net margins still in the red. The company has now posted multiple consecutive annual net losses after profitability in 2022 and a smaller profit in 2023, indicating a deteriorating earnings trend and limited operating leverage. The main positive is that gross margin has improved versus the most recent annual period, but it is still well below the stronger 2022 level, and losses persist.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is elevated and rising relative to equity: TTM debt is about $166M versus ~$82M of equity (roughly 2.0x), and returns on equity are deeply negative due to losses. Total debt has come down from 2024–2023 levels, which is a modest positive, but equity has also declined meaningfully over the same period, keeping balance sheet risk high. Overall, the balance sheet has limited flexibility if operating results do not stabilize.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is currently pressured: TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow are both negative (approximately -$4M and -$9M, respectively), following very weak cash flow in the latest annual period as well. While the TTM cash outflow is smaller than the prior year’s cash burn, the business is still not self-funding, and the trajectory of free cash flow remains unfavorable. This increases reliance on liquidity management and/or external financing if losses continue.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	545.74M	569.45M	623.08M	672.28M	775.69M	531.33M
Gross Profit	151.24M	149.70M	165.66M	202.79M	276.66M	142.19M
EBITDA	-23.88M	-37.08M	-18.15M	25.32M	104.43M	16.02M
Net Income	-34.06M	-46.23M	-34.49M	9.68M	64.25M	-1.15M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	317.07M	342.46M	429.55M	475.90M	504.82M	505.47M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	39.04M	46.71M	95.05M	113.28M	139.23M	141.14M
Total Debt	165.94M	193.87M	231.59M	242.00M	247.00M	265.80M
Total Liabilities	235.46M	241.59M	284.68M	298.69M	330.11M	344.85M
Stockholders Equity	81.62M	100.87M	144.87M	177.21M	174.71M	160.62M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-9.35M	-50.24M	-20.69M	-16.54M	49.98M	30.43M
Operating Cash Flow	-4.45M	-42.02M	-6.73M	-1.42M	63.40M	38.90M
Investing Cash Flow	20.96M	15.75M	-19.99M	42.80M	-45.33M	-3.20M
Financing Cash Flow	-3.87M	294.00K	227.00K	-10.06M	-52.06M	-29.65M

Tilly's Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.59
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TLYS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.59 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.62, below the 50-day MA of 1.69, and above the 200-day MA of 1.57, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.42 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TLYS.

Tilly's Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
URBN	82 Outperform	$6.62B	13.45	19.34%	―	11.09%	51.51%
AEO	74 Outperform	$4.10B	20.87	12.36%	2.09%	-1.15%	-0.98%
ZUMZ	62 Neutral	$426.45M	50.45	2.79%	―	2.81%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
TLYS	48 Neutral	$45.41M	-1.27	-34.77%	―	-8.31%	36.10%
CATO	45 Neutral	$59.84M	-6.49	-5.58%	―	-1.01%	65.04%
CURV	45 Neutral	$114.08M	-51.35	―	―	-7.33%	-114.80%