Tilly's (TLYS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $51.50M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 130.59K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.24
• Revenue Growth: -8.31%
• EPS Growth: 36.10%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,410
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Apparel - Retail
• EPS (TTM): -0.05
• Shares Outstanding: 23,167,562
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 70,092
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 130,587
• PEG Ratio: -0.09
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.29
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.23
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.59
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.36
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.32
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.14
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -7.24
• 1Y Price Target: $2.25
• Price Target Upside: 41.51% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): -1.25
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $541.80M

• Rating: 48 Neutral
• Price Target: $1.50 ▼(-5.66% Downside)

Overall score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (large revenue contraction, ongoing losses, and negative free cash flow with elevated leverage). The latest earnings call shows meaningful near-term improvement in comps, margins, and loss reduction, but technicals remain mixed and valuation is constrained by negative earnings and no dividend signal.

Positive Factors

Gross Margin Improvement

The improvement in gross margin indicates better pricing strategies and cost management, which can enhance profitability and competitive positioning over time.

Positive Comparable Sales

A return to positive comparable sales suggests successful strategic adjustments and potential for sustained revenue growth, boosting long-term business prospects.

AI and Technology Initiatives

Implementing AI tools can optimize pricing and inventory, enhancing operational efficiency and customer satisfaction, supporting long-term growth.

Negative Factors

Declining Total Net Sales

A decline in total net sales reflects challenges in maintaining overall revenue levels, which could impact financial stability and growth potential if not addressed.

E-commerce Sales Decline

The decline in e-commerce sales highlights potential weaknesses in digital strategy, crucial for future growth as consumer shopping habits shift online.

Store Closures

Store closures may reduce physical market presence and sales opportunities, impacting brand visibility and customer reach in the long term.

Tilly's Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tilly's, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer of casual apparel, footwear, accessories, and hardgoods for young men and women, and boys and girls in the United States. Its apparel merchandise includes tops, outerwear, bottoms, and dresses; and accessories merchandise comprises backpacks, hydration bottles, hats, sunglasses, small electronics and accessories, handbags, watches, jewelry, and others, as well as hardgoods consists of skateboards, longboards, bikes, roller-skates, and equipment for snowboarding and surfing. The company also provides third-party merchandise assortment across its various product categories. As of March 14, 2022, it operated 241 stores. The company also sells its merchandise through its e-commerce website, tillys.com. Tilly's, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Irvine, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Tilly's generates revenue primarily through the sale of branded apparel, footwear, and accessories in its retail stores and online. The company's revenue model includes direct sales from both physical locations and its e-commerce website, where customers can shop a diverse selection of products. Key revenue streams include merchandise sales, which are bolstered by seasonal promotions and brand collaborations. Tilly's also benefits from its partnerships with prominent brands in the action sports and lifestyle sectors, which help to attract customers and increase sales. Additionally, the company may engage in marketing initiatives and loyalty programs to enhance customer retention and drive repeat purchases.

Tilly's Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Tilly's financial performance is under pressure with declining revenues and profitability, increased leverage, and negative cash flows. The income statement shows a significant decline in revenue and profitability, while the balance sheet indicates moderate financial stability with concerning leverage levels. The cash flow analysis highlights liquidity pressures with negative operating and free cash flows.

Income Statement

Tilly's income statement reveals a declining trend in revenue and profitability. The company has experienced negative revenue growth over the past three years, with revenues falling from $775 million in 2022 to $569 million in 2025. The gross profit margin has also decreased significantly, causing a deeper negative net profit margin. EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, indicating operating challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a stable equity ratio of around 30%, but the debt-to-equity ratio has increased due to declining equity. The return on equity is negative, reflecting recent losses. The overall financial stability is moderate, with a concerning leverage level, though cash reserves provide some liquidity cushion.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates negative operating cash flow and free cash flow, highlighting liquidity pressures. The company has struggled to convert net income into cash flow, which is concerning for future operations. Free cash flow growth is negative, and reliance on debt could increase if cash flows do not improve.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	545.74M	569.45M	623.08M	672.28M	775.69M	531.33M
Gross Profit	151.24M	149.70M	165.66M	202.79M	276.66M	142.19M
EBITDA	-23.88M	-37.08M	-18.15M	25.32M	104.43M	16.02M
Net Income	-34.06M	-46.23M	-34.49M	9.68M	64.25M	-1.15M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	317.07M	342.46M	429.55M	475.90M	504.82M	505.47M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	39.04M	46.71M	95.05M	113.28M	139.23M	141.14M
Total Debt	165.94M	193.87M	231.59M	242.00M	247.00M	265.80M
Total Liabilities	235.46M	241.59M	284.68M	298.69M	330.11M	344.85M
Stockholders Equity	81.62M	100.87M	144.87M	177.21M	174.71M	160.62M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-9.35M	-50.24M	-20.69M	-16.54M	49.98M	30.43M
Operating Cash Flow	-4.45M	-42.02M	-6.73M	-1.42M	63.40M	38.90M
Investing Cash Flow	20.96M	15.75M	-19.99M	42.80M	-45.33M	-3.20M
Financing Cash Flow	-3.87M	294.00K	227.00K	-10.06M	-52.06M	-29.65M

Tilly's Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.59
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TLYS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.59 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.83, below the 50-day MA of 1.64, and below the 200-day MA of 1.59, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.38 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TLYS.

Tilly's Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
URBN	82 Outperform	$6.29B	13.34	19.34%	―	11.09%	51.51%
AEO	74 Outperform	$4.35B	22.17	12.36%	2.09%	-1.15%	-0.98%
ZUMZ	62 Neutral	$424.93M	53.47	2.79%	―	2.81%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
TLYS	48 Neutral	$51.50M	-1.46	-34.77%	―	-8.31%	36.10%
CATO	45 Neutral	$69.71M	-7.39	-5.58%	―	-1.01%	65.04%
CURV	45 Neutral	$126.97M	-59.46	―	―	-7.33%	-114.80%