Tilly's (TLYS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $42.97M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 81.58K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.28
• Revenue Growth: -11.10%
• EPS Growth: -10.31%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,410
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Apparel - Retail
• EPS (TTM): 0.10
• Shares Outstanding: 23,167,562
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 50,631
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 81,581
• PEG Ratio: -0.09
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.29
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.23
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.59
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 4.18
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.45
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.67
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -7.16
• 1Y Price Target: $2.25
• Price Target Upside: 41.51% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 41 Neutral
• Price Target: $1.50 ▼(-5.66% Downside)

Tilly's stock score is primarily impacted by weak financial performance and technical indicators. The company's declining revenues, negative cash flows, and bearish technical signals are significant concerns. Valuation is also a challenge with a negative P/E ratio. Despite some positive aspects from the earnings call, such as improved product margins, the overall outlook remains cautious.

Tilly's Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tilly's, Inc. (TLYS) is a leading specialty retailer that focuses on providing a wide range of apparel, footwear, accessories, and lifestyle products primarily aimed at the youth and young adult market. The company operates in the retail sector, offering an assortment of products that cater to the action sports culture, including skateboarding, surfing, and snowboarding. Tilly's features a diverse selection of branded merchandise from well-known companies as well as private label products, allowing it to appeal to a broad customer base seeking trendy and functional clothing.

How the Company Makes Money

Tilly's generates revenue primarily through the sale of its merchandise in retail stores and online. The company operates a network of physical stores across various locations, which contributes significantly to its sales volume. Additionally, Tilly's has a robust e-commerce platform that allows customers to shop online, driving further sales and expanding its market reach. Key revenue streams include apparel, footwear, and accessories, which are sourced from a mix of brand partnerships and in-house labels. The company also benefits from seasonal promotions, limited-edition product drops, and collaborations with popular brands that attract customers. Tilly's engages in strategic marketing and social media initiatives to enhance brand visibility and customer engagement, contributing to its overall earnings.

Tilly's Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Tilly's financial performance is under pressure with declining revenues, negative profitability, and increased leverage. The income statement shows a significant drop in revenue and profitability, while the balance sheet indicates moderate financial stability but with concerning leverage. Cash flow is negative, highlighting liquidity issues.

Income Statement

Tilly's income statement reveals a declining trend in revenue and profitability. The company has experienced negative revenue growth over the past three years, with revenues falling from $775 million in 2022 to $569 million in 2025. The gross profit margin has also decreased significantly, causing a deeper negative net profit margin. EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, indicating operating challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a stable equity ratio of around 30%, but the debt-to-equity ratio has increased due to declining equity. The return on equity is negative, reflecting recent losses. The overall financial stability is moderate, with a concerning leverage level, though cash reserves provide some liquidity cushion.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates negative operating cash flow and free cash flow, highlighting liquidity pressures. The company has struggled to convert net income into cash flow, which is concerning for future operations. Free cash flow growth is negative, and reliance on debt could increase if cash flows do not improve.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	402.31M	569.45M	623.08M	672.28M	775.69M	531.33M
Gross Profit	107.58M	149.70M	165.66M	202.79M	276.66M	142.19M
EBITDA	-25.05M	-37.08M	-18.15M	25.32M	104.43M	16.02M
Net Income	-31.86M	-46.23M	-34.49M	9.68M	64.25M	-1.15M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	345.53M	342.46M	429.55M	475.90M	504.82M	505.47M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	50.68M	46.71M	95.05M	113.28M	139.23M	141.14M
Total Debt	178.63M	193.87M	231.59M	242.00M	247.00M	265.80M
Total Liabilities	263.03M	241.59M	284.68M	298.69M	330.11M	344.85M
Stockholders Equity	82.50M	100.87M	144.87M	177.21M	174.71M	160.62M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-17.39M	-50.24M	-20.69M	-16.54M	49.98M	30.43M
Operating Cash Flow	-13.28M	-42.02M	-6.73M	-1.42M	63.40M	38.90M
Investing Cash Flow	36.43M	15.75M	-19.99M	42.80M	-45.33M	-3.20M
Financing Cash Flow	-3.87M	294.00K	227.00K	-10.06M	-52.06M	-29.65M

Tilly's Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.59
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TLYS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.59 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.57, below the 50-day MA of 1.79, and below the 200-day MA of 2.00, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.92 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TLYS.

Tilly's Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
URBN	74 Outperform	$5.73B	12.51	19.72%	―	9.63%	56.06%
AEO	71 Outperform	$2.90B	16.46	12.17%	2.81%	-2.73%	-16.71%
ZUMZ	64 Neutral	$372.40M	―	0.19%	―	1.64%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
CATO	47 Neutral	$72.40M	-3.83	-10.73%	4.63%	-4.13%	-18.26%
CURV	42 Neutral	$119.00M	36.86	―	―	-5.76%	-75.71%
TLYS	41 Neutral	$42.97M	―	-43.51%	―	-11.10%	-10.31%

Tilly's Corporate Events

Tilly’s Earnings Call: Balancing Optimism and Challenges

The recent earnings call for Tilly’s reflected a cautiously optimistic outlook, highlighting both achievements and challenges. While the company reported improvements in profitability and product margins, as well as increased social media engagement, it also faced declining net sales, store closures, and setbacks in e-commerce. The sentiment during the call was balanced, acknowledging positive progress alongside significant hurdles.

Tillys Reports Improved Profitability Amid Sales Decline

Tillys, Inc. is a specialty retailer offering casual apparel, footwear, and accessories for young individuals, with a focus on active, outdoor, and social lifestyles, operating both physical stores and an e-commerce platform.