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Tilly's Inc. (TLYS)
NYSE:TLYS
US Market
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Tilly's (TLYS) AI Stock Analysis

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TLYS

Tilly's

(NYSE:TLYS)

Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$2.00
▲(0.50% Upside)
Tilly's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, including declining revenues and profitability, negative cash flows, and a concerning valuation. However, positive technical indicators and strategic leadership changes provide some optimism. The earnings call highlights both achievements and ongoing challenges, contributing to a balanced outlook.

Tilly's (TLYS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Tilly's Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTilly's, Inc. (TLYS) is a leading specialty retailer that focuses on providing a wide range of apparel, footwear, accessories, and lifestyle products primarily aimed at the youth and young adult market. The company operates in the retail sector, offering an assortment of products that cater to the action sports culture, including skateboarding, surfing, and snowboarding. Tilly's features a diverse selection of branded merchandise from well-known companies as well as private label products, allowing it to appeal to a broad customer base seeking trendy and functional clothing.
How the Company Makes MoneyTilly's generates revenue primarily through the sale of its merchandise in retail stores and online. The company operates a network of physical stores across various locations, which contributes significantly to its sales volume. Additionally, Tilly's has a robust e-commerce platform that allows customers to shop online, driving further sales and expanding its market reach. Key revenue streams include apparel, footwear, and accessories, which are sourced from a mix of brand partnerships and in-house labels. The company also benefits from seasonal promotions, limited-edition product drops, and collaborations with popular brands that attract customers. Tilly's engages in strategic marketing and social media initiatives to enhance brand visibility and customer engagement, contributing to its overall earnings.

Tilly's Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Sep 03, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 27, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a cautiously optimistic outlook. While there are notable achievements in profitability, product margin improvements, and social media engagement, challenges remain in terms of declining net sales, store closures, and e-commerce setbacks. The sentiment is balanced with both positive progress and significant challenges.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Improved Product Margins and Reduced Inventory Levels
Product margins improved by 210 basis points due to higher initial markups and lower markdowns. Inventory levels were reduced by 14.5% compared to last year's second quarter.
First Profitable Quarter Since 2022
Reported earnings per share of $0.10, beating the earnings outlook range and marking the first profitable quarter in nearly three years.
Positive Start to Fiscal August
Total comparable net sales for fiscal August increased by 0.9%, with store sales up by 4.5%.
Debt-Free Balance Sheet
Ended the second quarter with $114 million in total liquidity and no borrowings, comprising $51 million in cash and $63 million in undrawn borrowing capacity.
Increased Social Media Presence
Quadrupled TikTok following to 169,000 followers, enhancing content creation and launching a TikTok shop.
Negative Updates
Decrease in Total Net Sales
Total net sales decreased by 7.1% to $151.3 million compared to the previous year.
Decline in E-commerce Sales
E-commerce net sales decreased by 6.6%, with a significant decrease of 12.1% in fiscal August due to a distribution decision by a third-party brand.
Store Closures
Ended the second quarter with 232 total stores, a net decrease of 15 stores (6.1%) compared to last year, with more closures expected.
Volatile Tariff Impact
Tariffs continue to impact product costs, with a net impact of $500,000 expected for fiscal 2025 and uncertainty for fiscal 2026.
Company Guidance
During the Tilly's, Inc. Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, Michael Henry provided detailed guidance for the third quarter of fiscal 2025. The company expects net sales to range from $134 million to $140 million, translating to a comparable net sales range from a 2% decrease to a 2% increase. SG&A is projected to be approximately $47 million, excluding non-cash asset impairment charges, with an expected near-zero effective income tax rate. The anticipated net loss is estimated between $10.5 million and $6.9 million, translating to a loss per share of $0.35 to $0.23, an improvement from last year's $0.43 loss per share. The company plans to conclude the quarter with 230 total stores, compared to 246 stores at the end of the previous year's third quarter, and expects to maintain a debt-free status with liquidity between $83 million and $86 million. Total liquidity will include $20 million to $25 million in cash and investments, alongside $61 million to $63 million in undrawn borrowing capacity under its credit facility.

Tilly's Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Tilly's financial performance is under pressure with declining revenues and profitability, increased leverage, and negative cash flows. The income statement shows a negative trend in revenue and profitability, while the balance sheet indicates moderate financial stability but with concerning leverage levels. Cash flow analysis highlights liquidity pressures with negative operating and free cash flows.
Income Statement
42
Neutral
Tilly's income statement reveals a declining trend in revenue and profitability. The company has experienced negative revenue growth over the past three years, with revenues falling from $775 million in 2022 to $569 million in 2025. The gross profit margin has also decreased significantly, causing a deeper negative net profit margin. EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, indicating operating challenges.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet shows a stable equity ratio of around 30%, but the debt-to-equity ratio has increased due to declining equity. The return on equity is negative, reflecting recent losses. The overall financial stability is moderate, with a concerning leverage level, though cash reserves provide some liquidity cushion.
Cash Flow
38
Negative
Cash flow analysis indicates negative operating cash flow and free cash flow, highlighting liquidity pressures. The company has struggled to convert net income into cash flow, which is concerning for future operations. Free cash flow growth is negative, and reliance on debt could increase if cash flows do not improve.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue549.60M569.45M623.08M672.28M775.69M531.33M
Gross Profit145.85M149.70M165.66M202.79M276.66M142.19M
EBITDA-36.02M-37.08M-18.15M25.59M104.43M16.02M
Net Income-45.53M-46.23M-34.49M9.68M64.25M-1.15M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets345.53M342.46M429.55M475.90M504.82M505.47M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments50.68M46.71M95.05M113.28M139.23M141.14M
Total Debt178.63M193.87M231.59M242.00M247.00M265.80M
Total Liabilities263.03M241.59M284.68M298.69M330.11M344.85M
Stockholders Equity82.50M100.87M144.87M177.21M174.71M160.62M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-22.75M-50.24M-20.69M-16.54M49.98M30.43M
Operating Cash Flow-17.10M-42.02M-6.73M-1.42M63.40M38.90M
Investing Cash Flow34.90M15.75M-19.99M42.80M-45.33M-3.20M
Financing Cash Flow-3.87M294.00K227.00K-10.06M-52.06M-29.65M

Tilly's Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price1.99
Price Trends
50DMA
1.64
Positive
100DMA
1.45
Positive
200DMA
2.50
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.12
Negative
RSI
57.96
Neutral
STOCH
42.07
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TLYS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.99 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.72, above the 50-day MA of 1.64, and below the 200-day MA of 2.50, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.07 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TLYS.

Tilly's Risk Analysis

Tilly's disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tilly's reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Tilly's Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
$3.03B14.8543.13%6.57%1.62%-2.57%
77
Outperform
$6.34B13.8419.72%9.63%56.06%
75
Outperform
$3.26B18.1512.17%2.73%-2.73%-16.71%
64
Neutral
$365.54M1,677.270.19%1.64%
62
Neutral
$312.77M-13.32%3.32%25.71%
61
Neutral
$17.92B12.81-0.76%2.98%1.30%-14.28%
54
Neutral
$57.90M-43.51%-11.10%-10.31%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TLYS
Tilly's
1.99
-2.98
-59.96%
AEO
American Eagle
18.32
>-0.01
-0.05%
BKE
Buckle
59.37
20.29
51.92%
CTRN
Citi Trends
37.82
23.44
163.00%
URBN
Urban Outfitters
73.01
38.66
112.55%
ZUMZ
Zumiez
21.24
-1.86
-8.05%

Tilly's Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Tilly’s Announces New CEO Appointment
Positive
Jul 28, 2025

On July 25, 2025, Tillys announced the appointment of Nathan M. Smith as President and CEO, effective August 18, 2025. Smith, who brings extensive industry experience from roles at Marolina Outdoor, Boardriders, and Oakley, will also join the Board of Directors. This leadership transition, supported by co-founder Hezy Shaked, aims to revitalize the brand and drive business improvements. The agreement with Smith includes a substantial compensation package, stock options, and relocation support, reflecting Tillys’ commitment to strategic growth and leadership stability.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Tilly’s Stockholders Approve Key Proposals at Annual Meeting
Neutral
Jun 11, 2025

At Tilly’s 2025 annual stockholders meeting held on June 11, 2025, stockholders voted on four key proposals. The election of six directors for terms expiring in 2026 was confirmed, and the Third Amended and Restated Tilly’s Equity and Incentive Award Plan was approved. Additionally, the appointment of BDO USA, P.C. as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending January 31, 2026, was ratified, and the compensation of named executive officers for the fiscal year ended February 1, 2025, was approved on a non-binding, advisory basis.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 04, 2025