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Talen Energy Corp (TLN)
:TLN
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Talen Energy Corp (TLN) AI Stock Analysis

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TLN

Talen Energy Corp

(NASDAQ:TLN)

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Neutral 58 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$424.00
▲(7.61% Upside)
Talen Energy's overall score is primarily impacted by its strong financial performance in terms of revenue growth and strategic expansions highlighted in the earnings call. However, significant challenges in profitability, cash flow, and valuation concerns due to a high P/E ratio weigh down the score. Technical indicators also suggest a bearish trend, contributing to a moderate overall score.
Positive Factors
Strategic Expansion
The expanded contract with Amazon signifies a strong strategic partnership, enhancing Talen's market position and future cash flow potential.
Energy Storage Collaboration
The collaboration with Eos Energy to develop energy storage enhances Talen's capability to meet growing energy demands, supporting long-term growth and sustainability.
Improved Leverage
The significant reduction in leverage enhances financial stability, providing Talen with greater flexibility to invest in growth opportunities.
Negative Factors
Cash Flow Challenges
Severe cash flow challenges limit Talen's ability to fund operations and growth initiatives, posing a risk to long-term financial health.
Operational Inefficiencies
Declining net profit margins indicate operational inefficiencies, which could hinder profitability and competitiveness over time.
Susquehanna Outage Impact
The extended outage at Susquehanna highlights operational vulnerabilities, impacting financial results and potentially affecting future reliability.

Talen Energy Corp (TLN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Talen Energy Corp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTalen Energy Corp (TLN) is a leading energy generation and marketing company based in the United States, primarily focused on providing reliable and sustainable electricity through its diverse portfolio of power generation assets. The company operates in multiple sectors, including conventional energy generation, renewable energy, and energy marketing services. Talen Energy is known for its commitment to operational excellence and environmental stewardship, with a mix of natural gas, coal, and renewable energy resources to meet the growing energy demands of its customers.
How the Company Makes MoneyTalen Energy Corp generates revenue primarily through the sale of electricity produced from its power generation facilities. The company's revenue model includes several key streams: (1) wholesale electricity sales to regional power markets, where it participates in bidding for power generation; (2) long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with utilities and other off-takers, providing stable cash flow; (3) ancillary services, including capacity and reserve market participation, which ensures reliability for the grid; and (4) revenues from renewable energy credits (RECs) and environmental credits, which are generated through its commitment to sustainable practices. Talen Energy may also engage in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to enhance its market reach and operational capabilities, contributing to its overall earnings.

Talen Energy Corp Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted significant strategic expansions, including a major contract with Amazon and the acquisition of two power plants, enhancing Talen's future cash flow and market positioning. However, these positive developments were offset by financial and operational challenges, particularly related to the Susquehanna outage and slower than expected share repurchases.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Performance
Talen Energy reported an adjusted EBITDA of $90 million for Q2 2025.
Amazon Contract Expansion
Talen expanded its agreement with Amazon to a front-of-the-meter 1.9 gigawatts arrangement, doubling the original contract size.
Strategic Acquisitions
Talen acquired Freedom Energy Center and Guernsey Power Plant, adding low-carbon, highly efficient CCGTs to their fleet, with expected free cash flow per share accretion over 40% in 2026 and more than 50% in the following two years.
PJM Capacity Pricing
Higher 2025/2026 PJM capacity pricing of approximately $270 per megawatt-day is expected to benefit Talen's earnings.
Share Repurchase Program
Approximately 23% of outstanding shares have been repurchased for $2 billion at an average price of around $150 per share since the start of 2024.
Negative Updates
Extended Outage at Susquehanna
The extended outage at Susquehanna led to an adjusted free cash flow use of $78 million, impacting Talen's financial results.
Incremental Maintenance Investment
An additional $30 million was invested in the spring maintenance outage at Susquehanna, resulting in approximately 30 days of additional outage time.
Challenges with Share Repurchase
Year-to-date, only about $100 million of a targeted $500 million in share repurchases have been completed due to strategic moves and MNPI.
Company Guidance
During the Talen Energy Corporation's Q2 2025 earnings call, the company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $90 million and an adjusted free cash flow use of $78 million, primarily due to an extended outage at the Susquehanna plant. This outage resulted in an increase of over 75 megawatts from Unit 2. Talen also expanded its agreement with Amazon, doubling it to 1.9 gigawatts, and announced the acquisition of the Freedom Energy Center and Guernsey Power Plant, which is expected to increase free cash flow per share by over 40% in 2026 and more than 50% in the following two years. The company reaffirmed its 2025 guidance and plans to provide updates on its 2026 and 2027-2028 outlooks in September. Talen has also been added to two Russell equity indices, enhancing shareholder demand. Additionally, the company is targeting a net leverage ratio of less than 3.5x by the end of 2026, supported by a $1 billion buyback capacity, and aims to return 70% of capital to shareholders once the leverage target is met.

Talen Energy Corp Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Talen Energy Corp shows strong revenue growth and improved gross profit margins, indicating positive sales momentum and cost management. However, declining net profit margins and operational inefficiencies pose profitability challenges. The balance sheet shows improved leverage, enhancing financial stability, but cash flow difficulties remain a significant concern.
Income Statement
Talen Energy Corp shows a strong revenue growth rate of 24.54% in the TTM, indicating a positive trajectory in sales. The gross profit margin improved to 42.89%, reflecting efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin decreased significantly from 48.14% in 2024 to 8.13% in the TTM, suggesting challenges in maintaining profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins also declined, indicating potential operational inefficiencies.
Balance Sheet
The company's debt-to-equity ratio improved dramatically to 0.01 in the TTM, showcasing a significant reduction in leverage, which enhances financial stability. The return on equity is at 12.06%, indicating decent profitability relative to shareholder equity. However, the equity ratio is not calculated due to missing data, which limits a comprehensive assessment of asset financing.
Cash Flow
The cash flow statement reveals a concerning free cash flow growth rate of -493.33% in the TTM, indicating cash flow challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.09, suggesting limited cash generation from operations relative to net income. The negative free cash flow to net income ratio further highlights cash flow difficulties.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.30B2.07B1.44B3.02B1.77B
Gross Profit986.00M664.00M453.00M1.34B244.00M
EBITDA684.00M1.77B1.71B1.39B-301.00M
Net Income187.00M998.00M613.00M-1.29B-977.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets5.83B6.11B7.12B10.72B10.05B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments135.00M329.00M401.00M988.00M276.00M
Total Debt17.00M3.00B2.83B4.35B4.81B
Total Liabilities4.58B4.72B4.59B11.20B9.32B
Stockholders Equity1.25B1.39B2.46B-573.00M733.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-59.00M67.00M516.00M-125.00M-518.00M
Operating Cash Flow41.00M256.00M864.00M187.00M-294.00M
Investing Cash Flow78.00M1.17B-347.00M-368.00M-280.00M
Financing Cash Flow-1.10B-1.96B-604.00M426.00M956.00M

Talen Energy Corp Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price394.00
Price Trends
50DMA
402.94
Negative
100DMA
359.40
Positive
200DMA
289.36
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-3.82
Positive
RSI
44.28
Neutral
STOCH
66.11
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TLN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 394 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 416.02, below the 50-day MA of 402.94, and above the 200-day MA of 289.36, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.82 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.11 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TLN.

Talen Energy Corp Risk Analysis

Talen Energy Corp disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Talen Energy Corp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
We expect to incur a significant amount of indebtedness to finance the Freedom and Guernsey Acquisitions. However, we are obligated to complete the transactions whether or not we have obtained the necessary funding. Q2, 2025
2.
The proposed Freedom and Guernsey Acquisitions are subject to a number of conditions which, if not satisfied or waived, could delay or impair our ability to complete the transactions on the agreed terms or at all. Failure to consummate the Freedom and (or) Guernsey Acquisitions as contemplated or at all could adversely affect us and the price of our common stock. Q2, 2025
3.
If completed, the Freedom and Guernsey Acquisitions may not achieve their intended results. Q2, 2025

Talen Energy Corp Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
$5.03B16.838.02%4.48%9.78%-6.19%
$10.83B18.688.90%3.87%7.47%-8.53%
$64.58B30.2445.85%0.47%46.90%388.66%
$27.30B27.756.96%2.91%6.62%17.35%
$17.65B18.105.60%3.62%6.62%11.55%
$33.42B73.1117.66%1.03%2.09%-74.13%
$18.63B116.249.95%125.17%-74.67%
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TLN
Talen Energy Corp
394.00
219.77
126.14%
NRG
NRG Energy
172.76
85.67
98.37%
PNW
Pinnacle West Capital
90.68
6.61
7.86%
POR
Portland GE
45.87
0.62
1.37%
PPL
PPL
36.91
5.67
18.15%
VST
Vistra Energy
190.59
67.18
54.44%

Talen Energy Corp Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Talen Energy Completes $2.69 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Oct 27, 2025

On October 27, 2025, Talen Energy Supply, LLC, a subsidiary of Talen Energy Corporation, completed its offerings of $2.69 billion in senior notes, with the proceeds intended to fund the acquisitions of the Freedom Energy Center and the Guernsey Power Station. These acquisitions are part of Talen’s strategy to expand its natural gas-fired power generation capacity, with potential implications for its market positioning and operational scale.

The most recent analyst rating on (TLN) stock is a Hold with a $424.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Talen Energy Corp stock, see the TLN Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Talen Energy Prices $2.69 Billion in Senior Notes
Neutral
Oct 10, 2025

On October 10, 2025, Talen Energy Corporation announced that its subsidiary, Talen Energy Supply, LLC, has priced $2.69 billion in senior notes due in 2034 and 2036 in private offerings. The proceeds from these offerings, along with a new $1.2 billion credit facility, will fund the acquisition of two natural gas-fired power plants in Pennsylvania and Ohio. If these acquisitions are not completed by the specified dates, Talen Energy will be required to redeem the notes.

The most recent analyst rating on (TLN) stock is a Buy with a $496.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Talen Energy Corp stock, see the TLN Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Talen Energy Corp Announces Senior Notes Offering
Neutral
Oct 10, 2025

On October 9, 2025, Talen Energy Corporation announced that its subsidiary, Talen Energy Supply, LLC, is proposing to offer senior notes due in 2034 and 2036 in a private offering. The proceeds, along with a new $1.2 billion term loan, will fund acquisitions of two natural gas-fired power plants in Pennsylvania and Ohio. Additionally, the company has withdrawn and plans to refile its Hart-Scott-Rodino antitrust application to provide more information to the DOJ, with the acquisitions expected to close in the first quarter of 2026, pending regulatory approvals.

The most recent analyst rating on (TLN) stock is a Buy with a $496.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Talen Energy Corp stock, see the TLN Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Talen Energy Launches $1.2 Billion Term Loan B
Positive
Oct 6, 2025

On July 17, 2025, Talen Energy Corporation, through its subsidiary Talen Generation, LLC, entered into agreements to acquire two natural gas-fired power plants, the Freedom Energy Center in Pennsylvania and the Guernsey Power Station in Ohio, for a total of $3.79 billion. To support these acquisitions, Talen Energy announced on October 6, 2025, the launch of a $1.2 billion Term Loan B facility and the upsizing of its revolving credit and letter of credit facilities by $200 million each. These financial moves are aimed at enhancing Talen Energy’s operational capacity and market positioning in the energy sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TLN) stock is a Buy with a $430.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Talen Energy Corp stock, see the TLN Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackM&A Transactions
Talen Energy Expands Share Repurchase Program by $1.005B
Positive
Sep 9, 2025

On September 8, 2025, Talen Energy’s board approved an increase in its share repurchase program by $1.005 billion, extending the expiration date to December 31, 2028. This decision raises the total authorization to $2 billion, contingent upon the completion of the Freedom and Guernsey acquisitions expected by the end of 2025. Talen plans to fund the repurchases with cash on hand and operational cash flow, with the flexibility to adjust the program based on market conditions and other factors.

The most recent analyst rating on (TLN) stock is a Buy with a $410.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Talen Energy Corp stock, see the TLN Stock Forecast page.

Talen Energy Reports Q2 2025 Earnings and Strategic Moves
Aug 8, 2025

Talen Energy Corp, headquartered in Houston, Texas, is a leading independent power producer and energy infrastructure company in the United States, operating approximately 10.5 gigawatts of power infrastructure, including nuclear and fossil fuel generation, primarily in the Mid-Atlantic and Montana regions.

Talen Energy’s Earnings Call Highlights Strategic Growth
Aug 8, 2025

Talen Energy Corp’s recent earnings call exuded a positive sentiment, highlighting the company’s robust performance and strategic expansions. The call underscored significant operational improvements and shareholder-friendly actions, such as substantial share repurchases. Despite facing financial pressures from extended maintenance outages and interest impacts, the overall sentiment was optimistic, driven by notable achievements and strategic positioning for future growth.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 29, 2025