Talen Energy Corp (TLN)
NASDAQ:TLN
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Talen Energy Corp
(NASDAQ:TLN)
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Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$304.00
▼(-5.39% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/21/26
The score is primarily constrained by weak financial quality (earnings volatility and materially higher leverage) and bearish technicals (below major moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting these is a notably positive earnings-call outlook with reaffirmed 2026 guidance, strong liquidity messaging, and expected cash-flow growth, while valuation remains less supportive due to negative earnings.
Positive Factors
Diversified generation & RTO participation
Talen’s mix of nuclear, gas and coal assets and active participation in RTO markets provides multiple durable revenue channels (energy, capacity, ancillary). This diversification reduces single-asset exposure, supports commercial optimization across nodes and underpins long-term contracting opportunities with large-load customers.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
A sharp increase in nominal debt and very high debt-to-equity leaves the balance sheet stretched. Elevated leverage raises interest and refinancing exposure, limits capital allocation flexibility, and magnifies downside risk if cash flow weakens, making execution on deleveraging targets and acquisitions more conditional on sustained earnings.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Diversified generation & RTO participation
Talen’s mix of nuclear, gas and coal assets and active participation in RTO markets provides multiple durable revenue channels (energy, capacity, ancillary). This diversification reduces single-asset exposure, supports commercial optimization across nodes and underpins long-term contracting opportunities with large-load customers.
Read all positive factors
Talen Energy Corp (TLN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$14.59B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)759.80K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.49
Revenue Growth80.20%
EPS Growth-74.33%
CountryUS
Employees1,894
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryIndependent Power Producers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-7.60
Shares Outstanding45,395,008
10 Day Avg. Volume550,637
30 Day Avg. Volume759,804
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.62
Price to Book (P/B)15.67
Price to Sales (P/S)6.78
P/FCF Ratio41.88
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.42
Enterprise Value/Revenue8.21
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit16.53
Enterprise Value/Ebitda43.48
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$458.90Price Target Upside42.81% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)21.88
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.34B
Talen Energy Corp Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Talen Energy Corporation, an independent power producer and infrastructure company, produces and sells electricity, capacity, and ancillary services into wholesale power markets in the United States. The company operates nuclear, fossil, solar, an...
How the Company Makes Money
Talen primarily makes money by generating electricity and selling it into wholesale markets, where prices are set competitively based on supply and demand and market-clearing mechanisms. Key revenue streams generally include: (1) Energy sales: rev...
Talen Energy Corp Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial momentum: FY2025 results beat expectations, Q4 free cash flow was notably robust (Q4 alone exceeded full-year 2024), large acquisitions expanded the fleet (~2.8 GW added) and the Amazon PPA (1.9 GW) plus announced Cornerstone deal provide substantial upside. Management reaffirmed ambitious 2026 guidance (implying ~84% EBITDA and ~106% FCF increases vs FY2025 actuals at midpoints), maintained >$2B liquidity, and raised the $2B share repurchase program. Offsetting these positives are tangible near-term risks: a public setback/uncertainty around Montour, Susquehanna operational and PTC issues, PJM regulatory uncertainty (RBP/cost allocation), and gas/commodity risk complexities that affect PPA structuring. Overall, positive financial and strategic momentum outweigh the operational and regulatory headwinds, but execution and regulatory clarity will be key to realizing the upside.Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year Financial Performance
FY2025 adjusted EBITDA of $1.035 billion and adjusted free cash flow of $524 million, exceeding the high end of the company’s revised guidance issued last quarter.
Negative Updates
Montour Development Setback and Public Controversy
Montour site faced public/political scrutiny (county commission vote) and related delays; management acknowledged it as a short-term hurdle and signaled they will no longer discuss development details in public to avoid speculation, creating near-term uncertainty around that high-profile opportunity.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Full-Year Financial Performance
FY2025 adjusted EBITDA of $1.035 billion and adjusted free cash flow of $524 million, exceeding the high end of the company’s revised guidance issued last quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Talen reaffirmed its 2026 guidance with adjusted EBITDA of $1.75–$2.05 billion and adjusted free cash flow of $980 million–$1.18 billion (guidance excludes the pending Cornerstone acquisition) and said the 2026 forecast is more than double 2025 actuals (2025 adjusted EBITDA $1.035 billion; adjusted FCF $524 million; Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA $382 million and adjusted FCF $292 million). Management highlighted balance sheet and per‑share upside — >$2 billion liquidity (≈$1.2 billion cash and a $900 million revolver), a long‑term net leverage target below 3.5x and a pro forma net leverage of 3.0x using current net debt and the 2026 EBITDA midpoint (as of Feb 20) — and expects the Cornerstone deal (closing anticipated this summer) to add >$4 of adjusted FCF per share annually (management cited roughly a $500 million EBITDA run‑rate as a reasonable round number). Operational and strategic metrics supporting the guidance included ~40 TWh generation in 2025 (+10% y/y), a 4.7% equivalent forced outage factor, a 0.55 recordable incident rate, ~2.8 GW added from Freedom and Guernsey, a 1.9 GW Amazon front‑of‑the‑meter PPA, and a $2 billion share repurchase program through 2028.Talen Energy Corp Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.52B | 2.07B | 2.44B | 2.41B | 1.77B |
| Gross Profit | 1.25B | 664.00M | 1.05B | 770.00M | 244.00M |
| EBITDA | 415.00M | 1.77B | 977.00M | -326.00M | -301.00M |
| Net Income | -219.00M | 998.00M | 613.00M | -1.29B | -977.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 10.90B | 6.11B | 7.12B | 10.72B | 10.05B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 752.00M | 329.00M | 400.00M | 988.00M | 276.00M |
| Total Debt | 6.81B | 3.00B | 2.82B | 4.35B | 4.74B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.81B | 4.72B | 4.59B | 11.20B | 9.32B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.09B | 1.39B | 2.46B | -573.00M | 733.00M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 409.00M | 54.00M | 516.00M | -125.00M | -518.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 615.00M | 243.00M | 864.00M | 187.00M | -294.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.00B | 1.05B | -347.00M | -368.00M | -280.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 3.77B | -1.82B | -604.00M | 426.00M | 956.00M |
Talen Energy Corp Technical Analysis
Negative
321.33
Price Trends
340.95
Negative
356.88
Negative
364.82
Negative
Market Momentum
-5.26
Negative
46.45
Neutral
42.33
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TLN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 321.33 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 322.50, below the 50-day MA of 340.95, and below the 200-day MA of 364.82, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -5.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TLN.
Talen Energy Corp Risk Analysis
Talen Energy Corp disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Talen Energy Corp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Talen Energy Corp Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $29.79B | 21.95 | 8.16% | 3.13% | 8.42% | 32.48% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $12.52B | 17.22 | 8.91% | 4.15% | 5.70% | -8.25% | |
64 Neutral | $6.79B | 17.33 | 7.76% | 4.38% | 7.53% | -17.59% | |
60 Neutral | $35.14B | 35.94 | 39.65% | 1.11% | 6.40% | 62.12% | |
58 Neutral | $52.38B | 58.07 | 18.91% | 0.56% | 42.77% | -47.64% | |
51 Neutral | $14.59B | -11.79 | -17.56% | ― | 80.20% | -74.33% |
* Utilities Sector Average
TLN
Talen Energy Corp
321.33
121.10
60.48%
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Talen Energy Corp Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Talen Energy to Acquire Gas-Fired Assets in PJM Expansion
Positive
Jan 15, 2026
On January 15, 2026, Talen Energy agreed to acquire approximately 2.6 gigawatts of natural gas-fired generation from Energy Capital Partners—comprising the Waterford and Darby plants in Ohio and the Lawrenceburg facility in Indiana—for...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.