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H2O America
(NASDAQ:HTO)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$69.00
â–˛(8.08% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/29/26
The score is led by solid, utility-like profitability and steady revenue growth, plus a constructive price trend with the stock trading above key moving averages. However, the overall rating is held back by persistent, deeply negative free cash flow (capital spending consistently exceeding internally generated cash), which increases reliance on external financing. Valuation is fair rather than compelling (P/E ~22.5 with a ~2.7% dividend), and the latest earnings call was constructive on guidance and long-term targets but highlighted near-term dilution and cost/regulatory pressures.
Positive Factors
Steady regulated revenue and margins
HTO’s revenue growth and stable 10–13% net margins reflect a predictable, regulated water utility business model. Durable demand and regulated rate mechanisms support steady cash flow and earnings visibility, underpinning long-term earnings power and planning for multi-year capex programs.
Negative Factors
Deep negative free cash flow
Persistent negative FCF means capital spending consistently outpaces internally generated cash, increasing reliance on external financing. Over time this raises sensitivity to capital market conditions and can pressure returns if regulatory recoveries or asset productivity lag expectations.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Steady regulated revenue and margins
HTO’s revenue growth and stable 10–13% net margins reflect a predictable, regulated water utility business model. Durable demand and regulated rate mechanisms support steady cash flow and earnings visibility, underpinning long-term earnings power and planning for multi-year capex programs.
Read all positive factors
H2O America (HTO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.67B
Dividend Yield2.72%
Average Volume (3M)496.08K
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.3
Beta (1Y)>-0.01
Revenue Growth5.04%
EPS Growth-6.59%
CountryUS
Employees837
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Water
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.86
Shares Outstanding41,856,804
10 Day Avg. Volume571,894
30 Day Avg. Volume496,076
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio3.60
Price to Book (P/B)1.14
Price to Sales (P/S)2.20
P/FCF Ratio-6.32
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$67.25Price Target Upside5.34% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)2.79
Revenue Forecast (FY)$870.27M
H2O America Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
H2O America, operating nationwide via its various subsidiaries, is a key provider of essential water utility and associated services. The company manages the entire water lifecycle, from procuring, storing, and purifying water to its distribution,...
How the Company Makes Money
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H2O America Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 27, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 02, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced several operational and strategic positives — reiterated guidance, strong adjusted net income growth, an actionable five-year capital plan, substantial H1 capital deployment, near-term progress and expected accretion from the Quadvest acquisition, and strong liquidity/financing — against tangible near-term challenges including EPS dilution from equity issuance, rising water supply costs (notably in California), higher production and operating expenses, and a disappointing PFD in a Texas SIC filing. Management outlined clear mitigation plans (regulatory engagement, operational initiatives such as purified water and desalination feasibility, identified financial offsets, and filing a large Texas GRC) and reiterated long-term targets, leaving the tone constructive and forward-looking despite near-term headwinds.Positive Updates
Quarterly and Year-to-Date EPS
Reported Q2 2026 GAAP diluted EPS of $0.62 and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.72; year-to-date GAAP diluted EPS of $1.12 and adjusted diluted EPS of $1.23, results consistent with internal expectations and supportive of reaffirmed 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance of $3.08 to $3.18.
Negative Updates
EPS Dilution from Share Issuances
Weighted average diluted shares outstanding were ~19% higher in H1 2026 versus H1 2025 due to ATM issuances in 2025 and a March 2026 equity raise; share count dilution reduced EPS by ~$0.21 YTD and by $0.14 in Q2 (net $0.06 EPS reduction attributed to timing of the equity raise).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly and Year-to-Date EPS
Reported Q2 2026 GAAP diluted EPS of $0.62 and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.72; year-to-date GAAP diluted EPS of $1.12 and adjusted diluted EPS of $1.23, results consistent with internal expectations and supportive of reaffirmed 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance of $3.08 to $3.18.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated standalone 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance of $3.08 to $3.18 and a long‑term organic EPS CAGR target of 6%–8% (stating they expect to deliver a non‑linear EPS CAGR over 2026–2030 at or above the top end), supported by a 5‑year capital plan of $2.7 billion and an expected 13% rate‑base CAGR off a year‑end 2025 base of $2.8 billion; Q2 results were $0.62 GAAP diluted EPS and $0.72 adjusted diluted EPS (Q2‑2025 adj. $0.75), year‑to‑date EPS were $1.12 GAAP and $1.23 adjusted (vs. $1.25 adj. YTD‑2025), with underlying adjusted net income up 17% in H1 while weighted‑average diluted shares rose ~19% (H1 vs. prior year) after an upsized $700 million equity raise (including a $400 million forward agreement) that lowered EPS by a net $0.06; operationally they’ve invested $207 million through H1 (43% of the $483 million 2026 CapEx budget), have had >90% of budgeted year‑over‑year revenue increases approved by regulators, expect to raise $100–$200 million of debt to fund the Quadvest acquisition (anticipated to close end‑Q3/early‑Q4 2026), retain strong liquidity with only $1 million drawn on $370 million of bank lines, hold an A‑ rating, and noted tax rates of ~13% in Q2 and ~14% YTD (down from 16% prior), while flagging specific project figures such as a $176 million estimated PFAS remediation capex and incremental AMI recovery of $53 million.H2O America Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
67
Positive
Cash Flow
38
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 828.50M | 800.59M | 748.44M | 670.36M | 620.70M | 573.69M |
| Gross Profit | 467.73M | 374.11M | 425.12M | 388.43M | 357.17M | 318.57M |
| EBITDA | 314.24M | 321.33M | 289.38M | 265.23M | 246.82M | 219.66M |
| Net Income | 106.95M | 102.58M | 93.97M | 84.99M | 73.83M | 60.48M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.44B | 5.15B | 4.66B | 4.35B | 3.76B | 3.49B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 104.10M | 20.69M | 11.11M | 9.72M | 12.34M | 10.91M |
| Total Debt | 1.89B | 1.98B | 1.83B | 1.75B | 1.66B | 1.60B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.59B | 3.61B | 3.29B | 3.11B | 2.64B | 2.46B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.84B | 1.54B | 1.37B | 1.23B | 1.11B | 1.03B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -428.07M | -278.10M | -185.11M | -99.89M | -78.04M | -123.77M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 245.23M | 244.80M | 195.53M | 190.83M | 166.20M | 130.04M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -518.43M | -520.10M | -340.10M | -322.27M | -244.33M | -260.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 357.45M | 284.87M | 145.96M | 128.82M | 78.35M | 132.81M |
H2O America Technical Analysis
Positive
63.84
Price Trends
60.59
Positive
58.93
Positive
54.49
Positive
Market Momentum
0.46
Negative
61.30
Neutral
93.98
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HTO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 63.84 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 62.56, above the 50-day MA of 60.59, and above the 200-day MA of 54.49, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.46 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.98 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HTO.
H2O America Risk Analysis
H2O America disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. H2O America reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
H2O America Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $3.53B | 24.31 | 13.50% | 2.33% | 13.23% | 12.00% | |
66 Neutral | $2.67B | 22.33 | 6.35% | 2.69% | 5.04% | -6.59% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $3.12B | 22.63 | 7.62% | 2.50% | 6.43% | -2.99% | |
65 Neutral | $1.11B | 22.50 | 9.57% | 2.53% | 5.26% | 7.26% | |
62 Neutral | $2.69B | 77.00 | 3.50% | 1.39% | -1.95% | -17.11% |
* Utilities Sector Average
HTO
H2O America
63.85
15.68
32.56%
AWR
American States Water
88.97
16.50
22.77%
CWT
California Water Service
50.40
5.64
12.60%
MSEX
Middlesex Water Company
58.73
7.55
14.76%
WTTR
Select Energy Services
20.86
12.81
159.10%
ARIS
Aris Mining
17.89
10.95
157.78%
H2O America Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
H2O America announces executive Kristen Johnson’s upcoming departure
Neutral
Jun 12, 2026
On June 10, 2026, H2O America disclosed that it had reached a mutual agreement with executive Kristen Johnson for her to separate from the company, with her departure becoming effective July 3, 2026. The company classified the move as a separation...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
H2O America Shareholders Reaffirm Board and Governance Policies
Positive
May 19, 2026
At its May 13, 2026 stockholders’ meeting, H2O America shareholders elected nine directors to the board and approved, on an advisory basis, the compensation of the company’s named executive officers as presented in its 2026 proxy mater...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.