American States Water Company (AWR)
NYSE:AWR
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American States Water
(NYSE:AWR)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$81.00
▲(11.66% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/01/26
The score is anchored by solid regulated-utility profitability and a positive earnings-call backdrop (EPS growth, regulatory progress, and dividend growth), tempered most by persistently negative free cash flow and cash-flow/data consistency concerns. Technicals are supportive and valuation is reasonable but not compelling given funding dependence and volatility risks under the new ratemaking mechanism.
Positive Factors
Regulated profitability
Consistently strong net margins and respectable returns on equity reflect the structural earnings stability of regulated water and electric utilities. This durable margin profile supports predictable cash flows, rate-base reinvestment and the company’s long-standing dividend growth policy over multi-year horizons.
Negative Factors
Weak cash generation
Persistent negative free cash flow, and an anomalous 2025 operating cash flow reading, signal structural funding pressure given heavy capex needs. Over time this raises dependence on external financing, increases refinancing risk, and can constrain discretionary investment or dividend flexibility if not corrected.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Regulated profitability
Consistently strong net margins and respectable returns on equity reflect the structural earnings stability of regulated water and electric utilities. This durable margin profile supports predictable cash flows, rate-base reinvestment and the company’s long-standing dividend growth policy over multi-year horizons.
Read all positive factors
American States Water (AWR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.94B
Dividend Yield2.64%
Average Volume (3M)269.50K
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.4
Beta (1Y)>-0.01
Revenue Growth10.28%
EPS Growth13.56%
CountryUS
Employees517
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Water
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.74
Shares Outstanding39,082,470
10 Day Avg. Volume235,912
30 Day Avg. Volume269,503
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio3.40
Price to Book (P/B)2.67
Price to Sales (P/S)4.25
P/FCF Ratio-393.98
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.32
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.89
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.28
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.37
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)3.48
Revenue Forecast (FY)$664.00M
American States Water Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
American States Water Company, through its subsidiaries, provides water and electric services to residential, commercial, industrial, and other customers in the United States. It operates through three segments: Water, Electric, and Contracted Ser...
How the Company Makes Money
AWR makes money primarily through two models: regulated utility revenue and contracted service revenue. (1) Regulated utilities: Its water and electric subsidiaries earn revenue by delivering water/wastewater service and electric distribution serv...
American States Water Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Highlights revenue contributions from different business units, indicating which segments drive growth and profitability, and where the company might face challenges or opportunities.
Highlights revenue contributions from different business units, indicating which segments drive growth and profitability, and where the company might face challenges or opportunities.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAmerican States Water Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a solid financial and operational performance for 2025 highlighted by double‑digit adjusted EPS growth (10.9%), strong infrastructure investment ($210.9M), constructive regulatory approvals, rate base expansion (CAGR 11.3%), ASUS growth, higher operating cash flow (+~15.6%), and an 8.3% dividend increase. Offsetting items include change to the water ratemaking mechanism that increases exposure to consumption volatility (nearly 4% lower consumption vs. GRC assumptions), higher supply and operating costs, modest electric weakness in the quarter, dilution from share issuance, and slightly higher parent interest costs. Overall, positive operational momentum and regulatory positioning outweigh the near‑term cost pressures and regulatory/timing risks.Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year EPS Performance
Reported consolidated earnings per share of $3.37 for 2025 versus $3.17 in 2024; excluding a one‑time 2024 tax benefit, adjusted EPS increased from $3.04 to $3.37, a $0.33 improvement or 10.9% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Change in Water Ratemaking Mechanism Introduces Volatility Risk
CPUC required transition from full decoupling to a Monterey‑Style Water Revenue Adjustment Mechanism (MRAM) and incremental supply cost balancing account effective Jan 1, 2025; company warned this could expose revenues and earnings to future volatility from fluctuations in customer water consumption and supply source mix.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Full-Year EPS Performance
Reported consolidated earnings per share of $3.37 for 2025 versus $3.17 in 2024; excluding a one‑time 2024 tax benefit, adjusted EPS increased from $3.04 to $3.37, a $0.33 improvement or 10.9% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance highlights included company-funded capital expenditures projected at $185 million–$225 million for the year (after $210.9 million invested in 2025), ASUS expected to contribute $0.63–$0.67 per share in 2026 (vs $0.61 in 2025), Bear Valley’s GRC filing requesting ~ $133 million of capital for 2027–2030 plus ~$17 million AFUDC and seeking a 11.3% ROE, 5.92% embedded cost of debt, 60/40 capital structure and a 9.15% return on rate base, and Golden State Water preparing a new rate case to be filed by July 1, 2026 (while pursuing the $5.25 million Norwalk acquisition expected to add ~ $1 million of revenue); other noted metrics include consolidated 2025 EPS of $3.37 (up $0.33 or 10.9% vs adjusted 2024 $3.04), net cash from operations of $229.7 million (vs $198.7 million in 2024), Golden State’s adopted average rate base growth from $980.4 million in 2021 to $1,673.2 million in 2026 (CAGR 11.3%), ASUS new awards of $29.4 million, Bear Valley’s approved $28 million solar/battery projects, a 2025 quarterly dividend increase of 8.3% (quarterly dividend CAGR 8.5%, target >7% long-term), and ATM proceeds of $67 million raised in 2025 with $40.7 million remaining (not expected to continue).American States Water Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
38
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 658.07M | 595.46M | 595.70M | 491.53M | 498.85M |
| Gross Profit | 334.09M | 452.02M | 449.55M | 368.23M | 377.82M |
| EBITDA | 252.15M | 244.05M | 252.54M | 170.78M | 187.58M |
| Net Income | 130.44M | 119.27M | 124.92M | 78.40M | 94.35M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.72B | 2.50B | 2.25B | 2.03B | 1.90B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 18.82M | 26.66M | 14.07M | 6.00M | 4.96M |
| Total Debt | 942.78M | 938.24M | 917.88M | 734.43M | 629.02M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.67B | 1.58B | 1.47B | 1.32B | 1.22B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.05B | 920.05M | 776.11M | 709.55M | 685.95M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -7.09M | -33.23M | -120.86M | -48.44M | -28.93M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 229.73M | 198.73M | 67.68M | 117.80M | 115.58M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -237.54M | -232.78M | -188.76M | -167.10M | -145.09M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -26.00K | 46.64M | 129.16M | 50.34M | -2.27M |
American States Water Technical Analysis
Positive
72.54
Price Trends
74.31
Positive
73.56
Positive
73.35
Positive
Market Momentum
0.69
Positive
48.62
Neutral
19.45
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AWR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 72.54 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 75.52, below the 50-day MA of 74.31, and below the 200-day MA of 73.35, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.69 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.45 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AWR.
American States Water Risk Analysis
American States Water disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. American States Water reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Delays in obtaining approval of general rate cases could adversely impact our liquidity Q4, 2023
American States Water Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $334.10M | 14.28 | 9.26% | 3.87% | 5.80% | 12.33% | |
67 Neutral | $940.04M | 26.96 | 9.08% | 2.67% | 6.24% | 3.35% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $2.94B | 21.42 | 13.10% | 2.64% | 10.28% | 13.56% | |
58 Neutral | $2.66B | 20.13 | 7.68% | 2.88% | -2.60% | -33.78% | |
58 Neutral | $445.59M | 22.20 | 8.49% | 2.68% | 3.63% | -5.82% | |
54 Neutral | $222.06M | ― | 3.58% | 3.56% | 7.06% | -38.94% |
* Utilities Sector Average
AWR
American States Water
75.28
-2.79
-3.58%
ARTNA
Artesian Resources
32.11
-1.27
-3.80%
CWT
California Water Service
44.68
-4.87
-9.83%
MSEX
Middlesex Water Company
50.59
-10.46
-17.13%
YORW
The York Water Company
30.84
-3.79
-10.94%
GWRS
Global Water Resources
7.72
-2.16
-21.83%
American States Water Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
American States Water Sets 2026 Executive Incentive Program
Neutral
Mar 27, 2026
On March 26, 2026, American States Water Company’s Compensation Committee approved a 2026 Short-Term Incentive Program for its executive officers, establishing eligibility for both objective and discretionary cash bonuses tied to the 2026 ca...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
American States Water Clarifies Recent Stock Transaction Terms
Neutral
Feb 20, 2026
American States Water Company disclosed in its February 27, 2024, Current Report on Form 8-K that a referenced transaction involving its common stock is not intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy the securities. The filing clarifies...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.