American States Water Company (AWR)
NYSE:AWR
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American States Water
(NYSE:AWR)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$83.00
â–²(14.42% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/09/26
The score is driven mainly by steady regulated profitability and improving leverage, but is held back by weak and historically negative free cash flow that increases financing reliance. Technicals are modestly supportive with a mild uptrend and neutral momentum, while valuation looks somewhat rich for the growth profile despite a reasonable dividend yield. The latest earnings call added support via stronger Q1 results, improved operating cash flow, and favorable regulatory/rate-base updates, partly offset by cost and dilution/volatility risks.
Positive Factors
Regulatory rate‑base growth
Sustained additions to regulated rate base and recent CPUC approvals create predictable, tariff‑based cash flows. A rising rate base (11.3% CAGR 2021–2026) and an authorized return near 7.93% lock in permitted recovery of invested capital, supporting long‑term earnings and capex payback.
Negative Factors
Weak free cash flow
Thin and historically negative free cash flow forces recurring external financing to fund capital programs. Reliance on debt or equity issuance reduces flexibility, increases interest and dilution sensitivity, and can constrain discretionary investments or dividend coverage in adverse cycles.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Regulatory rate‑base growth
Sustained additions to regulated rate base and recent CPUC approvals create predictable, tariff‑based cash flows. A rising rate base (11.3% CAGR 2021–2026) and an authorized return near 7.93% lock in permitted recovery of invested capital, supporting long‑term earnings and capex payback.
Read all positive factors
American States Water (AWR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.03B
Dividend Yield2.64%
Average Volume (3M)295.44K
Price to Earnings (P/E)24.7
Beta (1Y)-0.03
Revenue Growth11.68%
EPS Growth5.79%
CountryUS
Employees517
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Water
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.43
Shares Outstanding39,192,654
10 Day Avg. Volume355,152
30 Day Avg. Volume295,442
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio3.40
Price to Book (P/B)2.67
Price to Sales (P/S)4.25
P/FCF Ratio-393.98
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.30
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.79
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.07
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.29
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)3.7
Revenue Forecast (FY)$664.00M
American States Water Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
American States Water Company, through its subsidiaries, provides water and electric services to residential, commercial, industrial, and other customers in the United States. It operates through three segments: Water, Electric, and Contracted Ser...
How the Company Makes Money
AWR makes money primarily through two models: regulated utility revenue and contracted service revenue. (1) Regulated utilities: Its water and electric subsidiaries earn revenue by delivering water/wastewater service and electric distribution serv...
American States Water Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Highlights revenue contributions from different business units, indicating which segments drive growth and profitability, and where the company might face challenges or opportunities.
Highlights revenue contributions from different business units, indicating which segments drive growth and profitability, and where the company might face challenges or opportunities.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAmerican States Water Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed primarily positive operational and financial momentum: consolidated EPS rose 8.6%, revenues grew by $21.2 million, operating cash flow improved materially (~58.8%), ASUS showed notable growth and provided full‑year guidance, and regulators approved rate increases and additions to rate base that support future revenue. Offsetting items include higher supply and operating costs (+$5.1M and +$10.2M), some interest expense headwinds, minor dilution from the ATM program, and ongoing regulatory mechanism changes (MRAM) that can increase future earnings volatility. On balance, the positive performance, cash generation, regulatory approvals that add recurring revenue, and dividend growth outweigh the headwinds.Positive Updates
Consolidated EPS Growth
Reported consolidated earnings per share of $0.76 for Q1 2026 versus $0.70 in Q1 2025, an increase of 8.6%.
Negative Updates
Higher Supply Costs
Supply costs increased by $5.1 million year‑over‑year, driven by higher per‑unit purchased water costs and greater purchased water volumes; while much of the per‑unit cost was included in water rates (no net EPS impact for that portion), increased supply volumes negatively impacted earnings.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Consolidated EPS Growth
Reported consolidated earnings per share of $0.76 for Q1 2026 versus $0.70 in Q1 2025, an increase of 8.6%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company provided guidance and key metrics including projected 2026 company‑funded capital expenditures of $185 million to $225 million and ASUS contribution of $0.63–$0.67 per share for the year; Q1 results included consolidated EPS of $0.76 vs $0.70 (up 8.6%), revenue up $21.2 million (water +$11.1M, electric +$3.7M, ASUS +$6.4M), supply costs up $5.1M, consolidated operating expenses ex‑supply up $10.2M, net cash from operations $71.6M vs $45.1M, and $42.1M of company‑funded capex in Q1; financing activity included $6.2M raised under the ATM with $34.3M still available; regulatory metrics include Golden State Water’s adopted operating revenues less supply cost up ≈$32M in 2026 (≈$11M from advice‑letter projects), $80M of advice‑letter project costs added to 2026 rate base generating ≈$11M incremental revenue requirement, a rate‑base CAGR of 11.3% from 2021 (base $980.4M) to 2026, an authorized return on rate base of 7.93% (ROE 10.06%, capital structure 57% equity/43% debt) through 12/31/2027, CPUC deferral of the cost‑of‑capital filing to 05/01/2027 (effective 01/01/2028), and Bear Valley’s requested four‑year capital budget of ≈$133M plus ≈$17M (plus AFUDC) with a requested ROE of 11.3%, embedded debt 5.92%, capital structure 60/40, and requested return on rate base of 9.15%; the quarterly dividend has grown at a 5‑year CAGR of 8.5% (above the >7% policy target).American States Water Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 679.25M | 658.07M | 595.46M | 595.70M | 491.53M | 498.85M |
| Gross Profit | 390.72M | 334.09M | 452.02M | 449.55M | 368.23M | 377.82M |
| EBITDA | 257.28M | 252.15M | 244.05M | 252.54M | 170.78M | 187.58M |
| Net Income | 133.55M | 130.44M | 119.27M | 124.92M | 78.40M | 94.35M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.73B | 2.72B | 2.50B | 2.25B | 2.03B | 1.90B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 22.16M | 18.82M | 26.66M | 14.07M | 6.00M | 4.96M |
| Total Debt | 930.55M | 942.78M | 938.24M | 917.88M | 734.43M | 629.02M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.67B | 1.67B | 1.58B | 1.47B | 1.32B | 1.22B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.06B | 1.05B | 920.05M | 776.11M | 709.55M | 685.95M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 38.00M | -7.09M | -33.23M | -120.86M | -48.44M | -28.93M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 256.31M | 229.73M | 198.73M | 67.68M | 117.80M | 115.58M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -219.03M | -237.54M | -232.78M | -188.76M | -167.10M | -145.09M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -36.35M | -26.00K | 46.64M | 129.16M | 50.34M | -2.27M |
American States Water Technical Analysis
Positive
72.54
Price Trends
74.49
Positive
73.65
Positive
73.35
Positive
Market Momentum
0.51
Positive
51.21
Neutral
22.94
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AWR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 72.54 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 75.82, below the 50-day MA of 74.49, and below the 200-day MA of 73.35, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.51 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.94 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AWR.
American States Water Risk Analysis
American States Water disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. American States Water reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Delays in obtaining approval of general rate cases could adversely impact our liquidity Q4, 2023
American States Water Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $331.90M | 13.85 | 9.26% | 3.87% | 5.06% | 8.72% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
64 Neutral | $3.03B | 24.69 | 13.06% | 2.64% | 11.68% | 5.79% | |
63 Neutral | $960.27M | 22.58 | 9.07% | 2.67% | 1.76% | -0.20% | |
58 Neutral | $480.12M | 22.79 | 8.49% | 2.68% | 4.38% | 7.70% | |
56 Neutral | $2.60B | 167.62 | 6.96% | 2.88% | 4.20% | -12.47% | |
54 Neutral | $203.36M | 77.24 | 3.58% | 3.56% | 5.82% | -53.16% |
* Utilities Sector Average
AWR
American States Water
77.20
1.06
1.39%
ARTNA
Artesian Resources
32.04
-0.20
-0.62%
CWT
California Water Service
43.47
-2.60
-5.64%
MSEX
Middlesex Water Company
51.56
-6.16
-10.67%
YORW
The York Water Company
29.62
-1.59
-5.09%
GWRS
Global Water Resources
7.07
-2.88
-28.94%
American States Water Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
American States Water Sets 2026 Executive Incentive Program
Neutral
Mar 27, 2026
On March 26, 2026, American States Water Company’s Compensation Committee approved a 2026 Short-Term Incentive Program for its executive officers, establishing eligibility for both objective and discretionary cash bonuses tied to the 2026 ca...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
American States Water Clarifies Recent Stock Transaction Terms
Neutral
Feb 20, 2026
American States Water Company disclosed in its February 27, 2024, Current Report on Form 8-K that a referenced transaction involving its common stock is not intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy the securities. The filing clarifies...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.