TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO)
NYSE:TKO
Want to see TKO full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
TKO Group Holdings
(NYSE:TKO)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$195.00
▲(4.66% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/10/26
The score is anchored by solid cash-flow strength but moderated by inconsistent profitability (including the negative gross profit flag) and higher leverage. Strong 2026 guidance and durable media-rights/partnership drivers are a meaningful positive, while technical momentum is currently weak and valuation appears stretched versus earnings.
Positive Factors
Long-term media rights
Large, multi-year media-rights contracts create predictable, high-margin recurring revenue with annual escalators. This structural revenue base reduces cyclicality from live-event timing, supports EBITDA margin expansion, and underpins durable cash flow visibility over the next several years.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage from debt-funded buybacks
Using substantial incremental debt to fund buybacks increases net leverage and interest obligations, reducing balance-sheet flexibility. With year‑end net leverage already ~1.9x, added term debt constrains capacity for opportunistic investments and raises refinancing and coverage risk if cash flow softens.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Long-term media rights
Large, multi-year media-rights contracts create predictable, high-margin recurring revenue with annual escalators. This structural revenue base reduces cyclicality from live-event timing, supports EBITDA margin expansion, and underpins durable cash flow visibility over the next several years.
Read all positive factors
TKO Group Holdings (TKO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$36.10B
Dividend Yield1.07%
Average Volume (3M)1.50M
Price to Earnings (P/E)86.4
Beta (1Y)0.81
Revenue Growth68.85%
EPS Growth1638.30%
CountryUS
Employees4,000
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryEntertainment
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.08
Shares Outstanding77,966,340
10 Day Avg. Volume1,300,765
30 Day Avg. Volume1,504,232
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.05
Price to Book (P/B)4.52
Price to Sales (P/S)3.57
P/FCF Ratio14.58
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.49
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.71
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.48
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.53
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$238.82Price Target Upside28.18% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)5.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.77B
TKO Group Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. operates as a sports and entertainment company. It operates through four segments: Media and Content, Live Events, Sponsorships, and Consumer Products Licensing. The company produces live events, television programs, and l...
How the Company Makes Money
TKO makes money by monetizing its live-event and media franchises (UFC and WWE) across multiple revenue streams. (1) Media rights and content distribution: A major portion of revenue comes from long-term agreements that pay for the right to broadc...
TKO Group Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Media Rights and Content Revenue Breakdown
Analyzes income from media rights and content, highlighting the company's ability to monetize its content library and negotiate lucrative broadcast deals, crucial for sustained revenue growth.
Analyzes income from media rights and content, highlighting the company's ability to monetize its content library and negotiate lucrative broadcast deals, crucial for sustained revenue growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyTKO Group Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a broadly positive operational and financial narrative: management highlighted transformational media-rights deals, strong adjusted EBITDA growth (+47% YoY) and significant margin expansion, robust cash generation and aggressive capital returns (dividends doubled and sizable buybacks). Key growth levers—media rights, partnerships, live events and FIPs—are driving 2026 guidance that implies substantial step-up in revenue (~21%) and EBITDA (~43%). Offsetting items include a modest FY2025 revenue decline (-3%) largely attributable to timing, a weaker IMG business (Q4 revenue -9% and negative EBITDA), one-time costs and timing-related cash flow volatility (World Cup distributions, antitrust settlement payments, White House event cost) and higher expected cash taxes in 2026. On balance, highlights materially outweigh the lowlights given the scale of recurring high-margin media deals, margin expansion and strong cash returns, supporting an overall positive outlook.Positive Updates
Significant Media Rights Agreements
Secured landmark long-term media rights including UFC's $7.7 billion deal with Paramount and WWE's $1.6 billion deal with ESPN; company now has more than $15 billion of long-term media rights across UFC, WWE, PBR and Zuffa Boxing, providing high-margin, recurring revenue with annual escalators.
Negative Updates
Full-Year Revenue Decline
Full-year 2025 revenue decreased 3% to $4.735 billion (from $4.884 billion in 2024). Management attributed part of the year-over-year revenue decline to timing impacts including 2024 event mix (e.g., Paris Olympics timing effects).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Significant Media Rights Agreements
Secured landmark long-term media rights including UFC's $7.7 billion deal with Paramount and WWE's $1.6 billion deal with ESPN; company now has more than $15 billion of long-term media rights across UFC, WWE, PBR and Zuffa Boxing, providing high-margin, recurring revenue with annual escalators.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
TKO guided full‑year 2026 revenue of $5.675–$5.775 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $2.24–$2.29 billion (midpoint implying ~21% revenue growth, ~43% EBITDA growth and a ~39.6% adjusted EBITDA margin — ~600 bps expansion vs. 2025), after 2025 results of $4.735B revenue and $1.585B adjusted EBITDA (33.5% margin) and Q4 results of $1.038B revenue/$281M adjusted EBITDA (27% margin). Key drivers cited include more than $15B of long‑term media rights (notably UFC’s $7.7B Paramount deal and WWE’s $1.6B ESPN deal), over $300M of aggregate financial incentive packages (FIPs) expected in 2026 (normalized ≈$240M) with a $380–$420M FIP target by 2030, partnerships exceeding $450M in 2025 and a raised 2030 partnerships target of $1.2B, plus expected World Cup contribution of ~$75M adjusted EBITDA and Milano Olympics revenue of ~ $170M. Capital and cash metrics highlighted: 2025 free cash flow $1.159B (73% conversion of adjusted EBITDA; normalized target >60%), year‑end net leverage 1.9x (net debt $2.952B / adj. EBITDA $1.585B), cash $831M + $355M restricted, dividends of ~$150M quarterly ($0.78/sh) / $452M for the year, ~ $900M repurchased in 2025 and intent to repurchase up to an additional $1B, and near‑term working‑capital and cash‑tax headwinds from the Paramount payment schedule and World Cup distributions. Strategic proof points cited include UFC 324’s ~5M streaming views and WWE’s 525M hours streamed on Netflix in year one.TKO Group Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
54
Neutral
Cash Flow
73
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.74B | 2.80B | 1.67B | 1.14B | 1.10B |
| Gross Profit | 2.35B | 1.51B | 995.75M | 754.53M | 446.10M |
| EBITDA | 1.31B | 676.31M | 611.09M | 603.15M | 341.40M |
| Net Income | 195.40M | 9.41M | -35.23M | 387.27M | 177.41M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 15.50B | 12.70B | 12.69B | 3.58B | 4.30B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 831.10M | 525.56M | 235.84M | 180.57M | 874.69M |
| Total Debt | 4.06B | 3.04B | 3.03B | 2.78B | 2.85B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.25B | 3.98B | 3.84B | 3.00B | 3.04B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.74B | 4.09B | 4.11B | 568.92M | 1.25B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.16B | 508.46M | 419.75M | 489.32M | 139.37M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.29B | 583.41M | 468.38M | 501.72M | 178.60M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -146.89M | -59.05M | 12.28M | -13.26M | -188.81M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -635.73M | -232.26M | -424.47M | -1.18B | -317.06M |
TKO Group Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
186.31
Price Trends
202.48
Negative
202.35
Negative
192.62
Negative
Market Momentum
-3.19
Positive
37.94
Neutral
24.35
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TKO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 186.31 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 194.50, below the 50-day MA of 202.48, and below the 200-day MA of 192.62, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TKO.
TKO Group Holdings Risk Analysis
TKO Group Holdings disclosed 61 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TKO Group Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
TKO Group Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $15.35B | 31.10 | 5.09% | 0.76% | -12.13% | 6.09% | |
68 Neutral | $25.51B | 34.54 | 16.22% | 0.75% | 9.20% | -10.54% | |
62 Neutral | $36.10B | 86.44 | 4.89% | 1.07% | 68.85% | 1638.30% | |
62 Neutral | $67.61B | 98.11 | 2.05% | ― | -5.02% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $14.62B | 22.61 | 48.36% | 2.47% | 8.46% | -40.64% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
59 Neutral | $36.77B | 66.61 | 157.65% | ― | 8.83% | -107.91% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
TKO
TKO Group Holdings
185.95
21.41
13.02%
LYV
Live Nation Entertainment
158.25
22.13
16.26%
NWSA
News Corp
26.24
-1.27
-4.62%
FOXA
Fox
63.35
14.56
29.83%
WMG
Warner Music Group
27.98
-1.54
-5.20%
WBD
Warner Bros
26.97
18.60
222.22%
TKO Group Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackPrivate Placements and Financing
TKO Group Launches Major Debt-Funded Share Repurchase
Positive
Mar 10, 2026
TKO Group Holdings’ financing arm, TKO Worldwide Holdings, amended its first-lien credit agreement on March 10, 2026 to add a $900 million incremental term loan and expand its revolving credit facility to $350 million, with the new term debt...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.