TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO)
NYSE:TKO
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TKO Group Holdings
(NYSE:TKO)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$198.00
▲(6.27% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/13/26
Score is driven by strong cash generation and a constructive earnings outlook with reaffirmed guidance and margin expansion, partly offset by higher leverage and past net income volatility. Technicals are weak (below major moving averages with negative MACD), and valuation is stretched at a high P/E, which together limit upside in the near term.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow
TKO's sustained, high free cash flow generation (TTM ~$1.75B and strong Q1 conversion) underpins durable financial flexibility. Reliable cash allows funding of content, buybacks, dividends and investments without immediate reliance on external financing, supporting long‑term strategy execution.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage
Leverage has grown materially (debt rise and net leverage ~2.3x), reducing balance‑sheet flexibility if revenues or margins weaken. Higher debt raises interest and refinancing sensitivities and limits capacity to absorb shocks, making deleveraging execution and cash conversion critical over coming quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow
TKO's sustained, high free cash flow generation (TTM ~$1.75B and strong Q1 conversion) underpins durable financial flexibility. Reliable cash allows funding of content, buybacks, dividends and investments without immediate reliance on external financing, supporting long‑term strategy execution.
Read all positive factors
TKO Group Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Media Rights and Content Revenue Breakdown
Analyzes income from media rights and content, highlighting the company's ability to monetize its content library and negotiate lucrative broadcast deals, crucial for sustained revenue growth.
Analyzes income from media rights and content, highlighting the company's ability to monetize its content library and negotiate lucrative broadcast deals, crucial for sustained revenue growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyTKO Group Holdings (TKO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$36.60B
Dividend Yield1.07%
Average Volume (3M)1.37M
Price to Earnings (P/E)43.6
Beta (1Y)0.80
Revenue Growth47.04%
EPS Growth33.90%
CountryUS
Employees4,000
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryEntertainment
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.83
Shares Outstanding74,967,674
10 Day Avg. Volume1,526,904
30 Day Avg. Volume1,367,640
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.05
Price to Book (P/B)4.52
Price to Sales (P/S)3.57
P/FCF Ratio14.58
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.48
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.48
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.74
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.04
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$235.91Price Target Upside26.62% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)4.71
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.79B
TKO Group Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. operates as a sports and entertainment company. It operates through four segments: Media and Content, Live Events, Sponsorships, and Consumer Products Licensing. The company produces live events, television programs, and l...
How the Company Makes Money
TKO makes money by monetizing its live-event and media franchises (UFC and WWE) across multiple revenue streams. (1) Media rights and content distribution: A major portion of revenue comes from long-term agreements that pay for the right to broadc...
TKO Group Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple material positives: robust consolidated growth (revenue +26%, adjusted EBITDA +32%), strong segment performances (WWE, IMG, UFC media rights lift), healthy cash generation and an active capital return program, plus confirmed full-year guidance with significant margin expansion. Lowlights were largely timing- and event-specific (fewer UFC Fight Nights, higher launch and one-off event costs including an expected ~$30M loss on Freedom 250), near-term cost pressure from talent and international events, and geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East which management says is being managed with committed partners. On balance, achievements and momentum materially outweigh the challenges discussed.Positive Updates
Strong Consolidated Financial Results
Q1 revenue of $1.597 billion (+26% year-over-year) and adjusted EBITDA of $550 million (+32% YoY); adjusted EBITDA margin of 34% (≈+150 bps YoY).
Negative Updates
Event Mix and Timing Weighed on UFC Q1 Results
UFC staged 9 events in Q1 2026 versus 11 in Q1 2025; two fewer Fight Nights and absence of last year's Riyadh FIP reduced high-flow-through revenue allocations and suppressed quarter-over-quarter margin upside.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Consolidated Financial Results
Q1 revenue of $1.597 billion (+26% year-over-year) and adjusted EBITDA of $550 million (+32% YoY); adjusted EBITDA margin of 34% (≈+150 bps YoY).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
TKO reaffirmed full‑year 2026 guidance targeting $5.675–$5.775 billion of revenue and $2.24–$2.29 billion of adjusted EBITDA (implying ~21% revenue growth, ~43% EBITDA growth and ~600 bps of margin expansion to ~39.6% at the midpoint); Q1 results were $1.597 billion revenue and $550 million adjusted EBITDA (34% margin), up 26% and 32% YoY respectively (margin +150 bps), with LTM adjusted EBITDA of $1.718 billion. Management expects UFC and WWE margins to meaningfully outpace 2025, Q2 to feature 11 UFC events (including Freedom 250, on which they expect an approximate $30 million loss) and WWE’s Q2 to be the largest revenue/EBITDA quarter; they also reiterated media‑rights step‑ups from Paramount and ESPN will drive results. Cash generation and capital returns remain a priority: Q1 free cash flow was $675 million (123% adj EBITDA conversion), they returned ~ $1 billion to shareholders in Q1 (including a ~$150 million/$0.78 per‑share dividend), the Board approved an incremental $1 billion buyback (on top of prior $2 billion), they repurchased $38 million of shares under a 10b5‑1, entered an $800 million ASR (initial ~3.1M shares delivered), closed a $900 million term‑loan add‑on, and finished the quarter with $4.671 billion debt, $789 million cash (+$937 million restricted) and net debt $3.882 billion (net leverage 2.3x).TKO Group Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
67
Positive
Balance Sheet
54
Neutral
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.06B | 4.74B | 2.80B | 1.67B | 1.14B | 1.10B |
| Gross Profit | 2.61B | 2.35B | 1.51B | 995.75M | 754.53M | 446.10M |
| EBITDA | 1.46B | 1.31B | 676.31M | 611.09M | 603.15M | 341.40M |
| Net Income | 226.35M | 195.40M | 9.41M | -35.23M | 387.27M | 177.41M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 16.02B | 15.50B | 12.70B | 12.69B | 3.58B | 4.30B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.73B | 831.10M | 525.56M | 235.84M | 180.57M | 874.69M |
| Total Debt | 4.96B | 4.06B | 3.04B | 3.03B | 2.78B | 2.85B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.50B | 6.25B | 3.98B | 3.84B | 3.00B | 3.04B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.38B | 3.74B | 4.09B | 4.11B | 568.92M | 1.25B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.75B | 1.16B | 508.46M | 419.75M | 489.32M | 139.37M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.82B | 1.29B | 583.41M | 468.38M | 501.72M | 178.60M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -14.85M | -146.89M | -59.05M | 12.28M | -13.26M | -188.81M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -703.44M | -635.73M | -232.26M | -424.47M | -1.18B | -317.06M |
TKO Group Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
186.31
Price Trends
191.44
Positive
198.87
Negative
195.12
Negative
Market Momentum
0.34
Negative
52.46
Neutral
70.98
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TKO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 186.31 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 188.14, below the 50-day MA of 191.44, and below the 200-day MA of 195.12, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.34 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TKO.
TKO Group Holdings Risk Analysis
TKO Group Holdings disclosed 63 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TKO Group Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
TKO Group Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $18.11B | 18.11 | 67.11% | 2.47% | 12.55% | -0.50% | |
73 Outperform | $25.70B | 37.29 | 14.86% | 0.75% | 0.60% | -5.58% | |
65 Neutral | $36.60B | 43.63 | 5.96% | 1.07% | 47.04% | 33.90% | |
65 Neutral | $14.87B | 39.20 | 4.88% | 0.76% | -6.39% | -12.34% | |
63 Neutral | $38.53B | -22.77 | 33.04% | ― | 12.64% | -158.14% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
55 Neutral | $67.77B | -5.13 | -6.13% | ― | -2.78% | 84.26% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
TKO
TKO Group Holdings
191.50
35.95
23.11%
LYV
Live Nation Entertainment
165.55
20.54
14.16%
NWSA
News Corp
25.89
-1.80
-6.50%
FOXA
Fox
63.98
9.46
17.35%
WMG
Warner Music Group
34.72
9.16
35.85%
WBD
Warner Bros
27.03
17.48
183.04%
TKO Group Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
TKO Group Updates Rule 10b5-1 Share Repurchase Plan
Positive
May 12, 2026
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. previously disclosed that on March 10, 2026, it entered into an accelerated share repurchase agreement for $800 million of its Class A common stock and adopted a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan to repurchase up to an additional $...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackPrivate Placements and Financing
TKO Group Launches Major Debt-Funded Share Repurchase
Positive
Mar 10, 2026
TKO Group Holdings’ financing arm, TKO Worldwide Holdings, amended its first-lien credit agreement on March 10, 2026 to add a $900 million incremental term loan and expand its revolving credit facility to $350 million, with the new term debt...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.