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TKO Group Holdings
(NYSE:TKO)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$199.00
▲(2.89% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/04/26
TKO scores well on fundamentals and narrative momentum: very strong free cash flow and a guidance raise with solid segment performance support an above-average outlook. The main offsets are the leveraged balance sheet and historically volatile margins, while the stock’s technical setup is weak and valuation is demanding (high P/E), limiting the overall score.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Sustained, high free cash flow is a durable strength: ~ $1.7B FCF provides reliable capacity to service debt, fund international expansion, and maintain buybacks/dividends. Over 2–6 months this underpins financial flexibility and resilience against event cadence swings.
Negative Factors
High leverage
Material leverage reduces strategic optionality: elevated debt levels relative to equity limit the company's ability to absorb weaker event cycles or pursue M&A. Over a multi-month horizon, leverage increases refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity risks, pressuring cash available for growth or returns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Sustained, high free cash flow is a durable strength: ~ $1.7B FCF provides reliable capacity to service debt, fund international expansion, and maintain buybacks/dividends. Over 2–6 months this underpins financial flexibility and resilience against event cadence swings.
Read all positive factors
TKO Group Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how much each business line—media, live events, merchandise, sponsorships—contributes to total sales, helping investors see which parts drive growth and which are more volatile. Useful for spotting concentration risks and where management is investing to expand margins or scale.
Shows how much each business line—media, live events, merchandise, sponsorships—contributes to total sales, helping investors see which parts drive growth and which are more volatile. Useful for spotting concentration risks and where management is investing to expand margins or scale.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyTKO Group Holdings (TKO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$36.61B
Dividend Yield1.61%
Average Volume (3M)1.49M
Price to Earnings (P/E)64.1
Beta (1Y)0.76
Revenue Growth35.92%
EPS Growth15.44%
CountryUS
Employees4,000
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryEntertainment
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.02
Shares Outstanding73,111,100
10 Day Avg. Volume1,011,843
30 Day Avg. Volume1,494,692
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.05
Price to Book (P/B)4.52
Price to Sales (P/S)3.57
P/FCF Ratio14.58
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$233.23Price Target Upside20.59% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)4.64
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.81B
TKO Group Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. stands as a significant enterprise within the sports and entertainment industries. Its business activities are primarily organized into four core divisions: Media and Content, Live Events, Sponsorships, and Consumer Produc...
How the Company Makes Money
TKO primarily makes money by monetizing the UFC and WWE brands through a mix of media rights, live events, sponsorship/advertising, and consumer products/licensing. The largest, most structural revenue driver is long-term media rights: TKO sells t...
TKO Group Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 03, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational execution and solid financial momentum across TKO's major businesses: consolidated revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth, a raised full-year outlook, record and high-grossing live events, meaningful On Location World Cup sales, and robust capital returns. Key short-term challenges include a ~$30M investment loss and margin impact from UFC Freedom 250, temporary declines in live events/hospitality revenue driven by event mix and ticketing choices, and higher event-related costs tied to international expansion. On balance, the positive growth, margin expansion, guidance raise, large partnership wins, and cash generation materially outweigh the noted one-time and mix-driven headwinds.Positive Updates
Consolidated Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Q2 consolidated revenue of $1.547 billion (up 18% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA of $650 million (up 23% YoY). Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded ~180 basis points to 42%.
Negative Updates
UFC Freedom 250 Financial Impact
UFC Freedom 250 incurred an anticipated loss of approximately $30 million and materially weighed on UFC and consolidated margins; UFC adjusted EBITDA margin declined to 52% from 59% YoY primarily due to the event's higher-than-normal costs and the lack of ticket revenue.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Consolidated Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Q2 consolidated revenue of $1.547 billion (up 18% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA of $650 million (up 23% YoY). Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded ~180 basis points to 42%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
TKO raised full‑year 2026 guidance to revenue of $5.775–$5.825 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $2.275–$2.305 billion (midpoint increases of $75M and $25M vs prior guidance), driven by strong H1 results (Q2 revenue $1.547B; adjusted EBITDA $650M; adj. EBITDA margin 42%; revenue +18% YoY; adj. EBITDA +23%; margin +~180 bps) and On Location/World Cup momentum (On Location World Cup hospitality sales >$2.0B from >568,000 packages through Q2, ~$22M of World Cup collections included in Q2 FCF). Management said IMG EBITDA should exceed its prior ~$75M full‑year estimate, expects UFC to stage 12 events in Q3 (3 numbered, 9 Fight Nights), WWE to have one PLE in Q3 (SummerSlam) vs four last year, targets normalized free cash flow conversion in excess of 60% (Q2 free cash flow $350M; Q2 FCF conversion 54%), and closed Q2 with $4.659B debt, $593M cash (+$960M restricted), net debt $4.067B, LTM adj. EBITDA $1.841B and net leverage 2.2x.TKO Group Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.30B | 4.74B | 2.80B | 1.67B | 1.14B | 1.10B |
| Gross Profit | 2.87B | 2.35B | 1.51B | 995.75M | 754.53M | 446.10M |
| EBITDA | 1.53B | 1.31B | 676.31M | 611.09M | 603.15M | 333.94M |
| Net Income | 229.56M | 195.40M | 9.41M | -35.23M | 387.27M | 177.41M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 16.26B | 15.50B | 12.70B | 12.69B | 3.58B | 4.30B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.55B | 831.10M | 525.56M | 235.84M | 180.57M | 874.69M |
| Total Debt | 4.95B | 4.06B | 3.04B | 3.03B | 2.78B | 2.85B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.90B | 6.25B | 3.98B | 3.84B | 3.00B | 3.04B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.40B | 3.74B | 4.09B | 4.11B | 568.92M | 1.25B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.67B | 1.16B | 467.27M | 172.41M | 489.32M | 430.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.80B | 1.29B | 586.08M | 266.16M | 501.72M | 441.24M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -145.12M | -146.89M | -117.24M | -35.98M | -13.26M | -11.48M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -940.71M | -635.73M | -154.96M | -174.10M | -1.18B | 162.51M |
TKO Group Holdings Technical Analysis
Neutral
193.41
Price Trends
191.96
Positive
192.20
Positive
196.14
Negative
Market Momentum
1.74
Negative
51.93
Neutral
19.24
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TKO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 193.41 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 191.15, above the 50-day MA of 191.96, and below the 200-day MA of 196.14, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.74 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.24 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TKO.
TKO Group Holdings Risk Analysis
TKO Group Holdings disclosed 63 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TKO Group Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
TKO Group Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $27.37B | 15.83 | 14.74% | 0.99% | 5.07% | -20.95% | |
71 Outperform | $17.42B | 34.03 | 6.62% | 0.73% | 1.06% | 26.22% | |
66 Neutral | $36.61B | 64.05 | 6.41% | 1.72% | 35.92% | 15.44% | |
62 Neutral | $14.52B | 21.75 | 90.84% | 2.86% | 12.91% | 125.41% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
60 Neutral | $43.50B | -167.81 | 73.28% | ― | 10.75% | -146.20% | |
54 Neutral | $72.06B | -22.60 | -9.22% | ― | -5.87% | -512.89% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
TKO
TKO Group Holdings
193.41
11.08
6.08%
LYV
Live Nation Entertainment
186.77
20.15
12.09%
NWSA
News Corp
30.92
1.42
4.80%
FOXA
Fox
70.33
11.82
20.20%
WMG
Warner Music Group
28.06
-4.53
-13.91%
WBD
Warner Bros
28.90
17.10
144.92%
TKO Group Holdings Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
TKO Group Shareholders Back Board, Auditor at Meeting
Positive
Jun 12, 2026
On June 10, 2026, TKO Group Holdings, Inc. held its annual meeting of stockholders, with about 98.03% of eligible voting power represented across its Class A and Class B shares. Stockholders elected twelve directors, including Ariel Emanuel, Mark ...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
TKO Group Updates Rule 10b5-1 Share Repurchase Plan
Positive
May 12, 2026
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. previously disclosed that on March 10, 2026, it entered into an accelerated share repurchase agreement for $800 million of its Class A common stock and adopted a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan to repurchase up to an additional $...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.