TIM Group (TIIAY)
OTHER OTC:TIIAY
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TIM Group
(OTC:TIIAY)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$7.00
▲(20.07% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/29/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (profitability recovery, meaningfully lower leverage, and better free cash flow) and supportive reaffirmed 2026 guidance. Offsetting factors are recent revenue softness and mixed near-term technical momentum, while valuation (P/E ~11) provides a modest cushion.
Positive Factors
Balance-sheet deleveraging
Material debt reduction meaningfully lowers financial risk and increases flexibility. With debt cut roughly in half vs. 2023, TIM has greater room for disciplined capex, M&A or shareholder returns while reducing refinancing and interest-cost exposure over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Sustained revenue decline
Top-line erosion in core services constrains long-term EBITDA and free-cash-flow upside even as margins recover. Unless offset by higher-growth cloud/Brazil segments or stabilised consumer monetization, continued revenue declines will limit the company's ability to sustainably expand operating profits.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance-sheet deleveraging
Material debt reduction meaningfully lowers financial risk and increases flexibility. With debt cut roughly in half vs. 2023, TIM has greater room for disciplined capex, M&A or shareholder returns while reducing refinancing and interest-cost exposure over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
TIM Group (TIIAY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$16.03B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)723.00
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.6
Beta (1Y)0.44
Revenue Growth-6.15%
EPS Growth97.16%
CountryUS
Employees26,282
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryTelecommunications Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.11
Shares Outstanding1,532,946,700
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume723
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.07
Price to Book (P/B)0.45
Price to Sales (P/S)0.42
P/FCF Ratio6.66
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.60
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.88
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.13
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.48
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.24
Revenue Forecast (FY)$16.39B
TIM Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Telecom Italia S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides fixed and mobile telecommunications services in Italy and internationally. The company operates through Domestic, Brazil, and Other Operations segments. It offers fixed and mobile voi...
How the Company Makes Money
TIM primarily makes money by charging recurring service fees for telecommunications connectivity. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Mobile services: monthly plans and usage-based charges for voice, messaging, and mobile data provided to r...
TIM Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong execution and financial discipline: the company delivered guidance for the fourth consecutive year, showing revenue and EBITDA growth, disciplined CapEx, improved cash generation and reduced leverage. High-growth areas (TIM Enterprise cloud, TIM Brasil) and strategic improvements (capital-structure simplification, 1998 concession fee settlement, ESG milestones) are notable positives. Key near-term headwinds include MVNO-related revenue phasing into 2026, the reversal of some nonrepeatable cash gains, a significant accounting one-off (EUR 0.6bn) that hit 2025 EBITDA, and timing/regulatory uncertainty over Sparkle disposal and RAN/rent-sharing approvals. On balance, positives (recurring operational improvements, cash generation, deleveraging and cloud momentum) outweigh the lowlights, which are largely timing or noncash/accounting effects.Positive Updates
Group revenue and EBITDA growth
Group revenues increased 2.7% to EUR 13.7 billion and EBITDA after lease grew 6.5% to EUR 3.7 billion in 2025, reflecting commercial momentum, operating leverage and tight cost control.
Negative Updates
MVNO volatility and near-term revenue phasing
Q4 Consumer total and service revenues declined 2.3% due mainly to the exit of MVNOs (Fastweb, CoopVoce). Management expects MVNO-related phasing (outbound exits and PosteMobile onboarding) to suppress H1 2026 results and create a weaker H1 / stronger H2 pattern in 2026; MVNO contract net impact cited at EUR 80–100 million per year.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Group revenue and EBITDA growth
Group revenues increased 2.7% to EUR 13.7 billion and EBITDA after lease grew 6.5% to EUR 3.7 billion in 2025, reflecting commercial momentum, operating leverage and tight cost control.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
TIM confirmed its 2026 guidance: group revenues +2–3% (Italy +1–2%), group EBITDA after lease +5–6% (Italy ≈+4%), CapEx intensity below 14% of revenues at group level (~12% domestic), and equity free cash flow after lease around €1.8bn (excluding the 1998 concession cash, which is expected to deliver <€1bn post‑tax in 2026); year‑end leverage is targeted below 1.7x (FY‑2025 net debt after lease €6.9bn, leverage 1.86x). Shareholder remuneration plans include ~€0.5bn dividend (≈70% of adjusted EFCF) payable in 2027, a buyback equal to 50% of Sparkle proceeds (Sparkle proceeds ~€700m expected), and up to ~€0.7bn cash to savings‑shareholders on conversion (May); TIM Brasil assumes real service‑revenue growth and EBITDA growth above inflation with ~€0.2bn cash‑out for the remaining 51% of I‑Systems. For context, FY‑2025 baselines were: revenues €13.7bn (+2.7%), EBITDA after lease €3.7bn (+6.5%), CapEx €1.9bn (<14% of revenues), EBITDA‑after‑lease minus CapEx €1.8bn (+17%), and equity free cash flow after lease €0.7bn.TIM Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 13.19B | 14.44B | 16.30B | 15.79B | 15.32B |
| Gross Profit | 4.45B | 6.73B | 8.08B | 9.13B | 9.25B |
| EBITDA | 3.18B | 4.80B | 5.71B | 5.51B | 1.16B |
| Net Income | 297.00M | -610.00M | -1.44B | -2.92B | -8.65B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 36.72B | 37.66B | 62.16B | 62.03B | 69.19B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.52B | 4.46B | 4.97B | 5.00B | 9.15B |
| Total Debt | 13.76B | 14.72B | 32.64B | 31.19B | 32.10B |
| Total Liabilities | 23.24B | 24.30B | 44.65B | 43.30B | 47.15B |
| Stockholders Equity | 12.21B | 11.96B | 13.65B | 15.06B | 17.41B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 827.98M | 402.00M | -25.00M | -1.41B | 323.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.44B | 3.25B | 3.94B | 4.89B | 4.34B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.44B | 4.94B | -4.15B | -5.33B | -5.12B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.83B | -7.41B | -456.00M | -2.87B | 3.16B |
TIM Group Technical Analysis
Positive
5.83
Price Trends
7.11
Positive
6.52
Positive
5.85
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.01
Negative
55.89
Neutral
90.02
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TIIAY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.83 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.93, below the 50-day MA of 7.11, and below the 200-day MA of 5.85, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.02 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TIIAY.
TIM Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $18.24B | 16.17 | 15.56% | 6.14% | -5.21% | -7.45% | |
73 Outperform | $12.58B | 11.93 | 17.46% | 7.82% | -4.90% | 14.83% | |
70 Outperform | $25.73B | 17.32 | 9.03% | 5.03% | -3.16% | 4.70% | |
61 Neutral | $16.03B | 18.56 | 2.57% | ― | -6.15% | 97.16% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
60 Neutral | $35.11B | 7.35 | -8.37% | 3.77% | 19.67% | -278.51% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
TIIAY
TIM Group
7.21
3.91
118.68%
TLK
PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk
18.77
5.66
43.13%
VIV
Telefonica Brasil
16.03
7.51
88.10%
TIMB
TIM
26.38
12.72
93.16%
VOD
Vodafone
15.21
7.08
87.08%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.