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TIM Group (TIIAY)
OTHER OTC:TIIAY

TIM Group (TIIAY) AI Stock Analysis

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TIIAY

TIM Group

(OTC:TIIAY)

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Neutral 48 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
$6.00
▲(2.92% Upside)
The overall stock score is primarily influenced by financial performance and valuation concerns. Despite some positive technical indicators, the company's high leverage, negative profitability margins, and poor valuation metrics weigh heavily on the score. The positive sentiment from the earnings call is noted but does not directly impact the score due to its exclusion from the weighted calculation.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
The consistent revenue growth in Q3 2025 indicates a strong market position and effective business strategies, supporting long-term stability.
Strategic Partnerships
The partnership with Poste Italiane enhances TIM's digital transformation efforts, positioning it as a leader in Italy's digital market.
Investor Confidence
The successful bond issuance reflects strong investor confidence, providing TIM with favorable financing to support growth initiatives.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage can limit financial flexibility and increase risk, especially in volatile markets, potentially impacting long-term sustainability.
Profitability Challenges
Ongoing profitability issues highlight operational inefficiencies, which could hinder TIM's ability to reinvest and compete effectively.
Cash Flow Issues
Negative cash flow growth suggests difficulties in generating sufficient cash, which may affect TIM's capacity to fund operations and growth.

TIM Group (TIIAY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

TIM Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTIM Group (TIIAY) is a leading telecommunications company based in Italy, primarily engaged in providing a wide range of services including fixed-line and mobile telephony, broadband internet, and digital television. The company operates in several sectors, including consumer and business communications, as well as IT and network solutions. TIM Group is known for its commitment to innovation and digital transformation, offering services that cater to both individual customers and enterprises, enhancing connectivity and digital experiences.
How the Company Makes MoneyTIM Group generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily by offering telecommunications services such as mobile and fixed-line voice services, broadband internet access, and pay-TV subscriptions. The company earns significant income from mobile services, including prepaid and postpaid plans, as well as value-added services like data packages and international calling. Additionally, TIM Group monetizes its infrastructure by leasing network capacity to other operators and providing managed services to businesses. Strategic partnerships with technology providers and content creators also contribute to its revenue, as TIM collaborates to deliver bundled services that increase customer retention and satisfaction.

TIM Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 05, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance and strategic advancements, particularly in Brazil and through partnerships with Poste Italiane. However, challenges such as the decline in MVNO revenue and stagnant mobile ARPU were noted. Overall, the sentiment of the call was positive with TIM on track to meet full-year targets.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance in Q3 2025
TIM delivered a solid operational and financial performance in Q3 2025, with total revenues up 2% to 3% year-on-year and service revenue growing 3%. EBITDA after lease increased 5% to 3%, and equity free cash flow confirmed a structural improvement versus last year.
Successful Bond Issuance
In September, TIM successfully issued a EUR 500 million bond with the lowest spread in the past 15 years for TIM, receiving demand six times the offer, indicating strong investor confidence.
Robust Growth in Brazil
TIM Brazil delivered strong results with consistent growth and improved cash generation, maintaining its leadership in 5G coverage now reaching over 1,000 cities.
Progress in Strategic Partnerships
TIM strengthened its partnership with Poste Italiane, launching TIM Energia powered by Poste and signing a letter of intent to establish a joint venture focused on cloud and AI, positioning TIM and Poste as leaders in Italy's digital transformation.
Negative Updates
MVNO Revenue Decline
Service revenues in the consumer segment were slightly negative at minus 0.5% year-on-year, mainly due to a lower contribution from MVNOs, although this was anticipated in the plan.
Stagnant Mobile ARPU
Despite repricing actions, mobile ARPU remained stable due to a balance between price increases and ARPU dilution from the difference between front book and back book pricing.
Company Guidance
In the TIM 9-month 2025 Results Presentation, the company confirmed its full-year guidance, highlighting solid performance across its operations in Italy and Brazil. Key financial metrics included a 2% to 3% year-on-year increase in total revenues, with service revenue growing 3%. EBITDA after lease saw an increase of 5% to 3%, and CapEx was reported at EUR 1.2 billion, representing 12% of total revenues. The equity free cash flow after lease was positive at EUR 50 million in Q3, with expectations to reach EUR 500 million for the full year. Net debt after lease remained stable around EUR 7.5 billion, with a leverage ratio below 2.1x. Additionally, the domestic business experienced a 1.2% growth in total revenues and a 1.9% increase in service revenue. The company also noted a successful bond issuance of EUR 500 million with the lowest spread in 15 years, demonstrating investor confidence. TIM's strategic initiatives included a strengthened partnership with Poste Italiane and advancing digital transformation efforts through cloud and AI ventures.

TIM Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
TIM Group faces several financial challenges, particularly in profitability and cash flow management. While there is some revenue growth, the company struggles with high leverage and negative profitability margins. The financial health is under pressure, requiring strategic improvements to enhance stability and performance.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
The income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue growth rate is positive at 2.72%, indicating some recovery. However, the company struggles with profitability, evidenced by a negative net profit margin of -0.69% and a declining gross profit margin over the years. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also decreased compared to previous years, reflecting operational challenges.
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
The balance sheet indicates financial leverage concerns, with a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.13 in the TTM period. The return on equity is negative, suggesting inefficiencies in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is relatively stable, but the high leverage poses potential risks in a volatile market.
Cash Flow
35
Negative
Cash flow analysis reveals significant challenges. The TTM free cash flow growth rate is negative, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, indicating cash flow issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low, suggesting difficulties in converting income into cash.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue14.36B14.44B16.30B15.79B15.32B15.80B
Gross Profit4.95B6.73B8.08B9.13B9.25B10.13B
EBITDA3.76B4.80B5.71B5.51B1.16B7.25B
Net Income-206.12M-610.00M-1.44B-2.92B-8.65B7.22B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets43.11B37.66B62.16B62.03B69.19B73.23B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.08B4.46B4.97B5.00B9.15B5.92B
Total Debt17.21B14.72B32.64B31.19B32.10B29.95B
Total Liabilities27.48B24.30B44.65B43.30B47.15B44.39B
Stockholders Equity14.03B11.96B13.65B15.06B17.41B26.21B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow78.92M402.00M-25.00M-1.41B323.00M1.85B
Operating Cash Flow2.57B3.25B3.94B4.89B4.34B6.55B
Investing Cash Flow-1.24B4.94B-4.15B-5.33B-5.12B-3.08B
Financing Cash Flow-1.43B-7.41B-456.00M-2.87B3.16B-2.01B

TIM Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price5.83
Price Trends
50DMA
5.79
Positive
100DMA
5.53
Positive
200DMA
4.84
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.09
Negative
RSI
65.04
Neutral
STOCH
100.13
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TIIAY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.83 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.83, above the 50-day MA of 5.79, and above the 200-day MA of 4.84, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 100.13 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TIIAY.

TIM Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
$9.26B13.8214.93%7.82%-4.90%14.83%
77
Outperform
$19.15B18.038.36%5.03%-3.16%4.70%
75
Outperform
$20.44B15.7115.54%6.14%-5.21%-7.45%
60
Neutral
$48.67B4.58-11.27%4.14%2.83%-41.78%
58
Neutral
$30.95B-7.16-7.08%3.77%19.67%-278.51%
48
Neutral
$13.70B-511.51-1.13%-6.15%97.16%
45
Neutral
$22.90B-10.30-0.70%7.47%-5.49%-75.51%
* Communication Services Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TIIAY
TIM Group
6.09
3.53
137.89%
TLK
PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk
21.21
5.70
36.75%
VIV
Telefonica Brasil
11.89
4.72
65.83%
TEF
Telefonica
3.98
0.17
4.46%
TIMB
TIM
20.27
9.41
86.65%
VOD
Vodafone
13.12
5.07
62.98%

TIM Group Corporate Events

Telecom Italia S.P.A. Reports Continued Growth in 2025
Nov 7, 2025

Telecom Italia S.P.A., operating under the brand TIM, is a prominent telecommunications company based in Italy, providing a range of services including fixed and mobile telephony, internet, and digital solutions primarily in Italy and Brazil.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 18, 2025