TIM Group (TIIAY)
OTHER OTC:TIIAY
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TIM Group
(OTC:TIIAY)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$9.00
▲(54.37% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/19/26
Score is held back primarily by mixed financial quality—thin profitability and weakened free-cash-flow conversion—despite a clear operational rebound and improved leverage. Technicals are supportive with a strong uptrend, while valuation is difficult to justify on earnings due to the negative P/E. Earnings-call commentary was constructive on guidance and underlying performance, but near-term cash flow pressure and corporate/regulatory uncertainty temper the outlook.
Positive Factors
Operational rebound & margin improvement
A large rebound in TTM revenue alongside a materially higher EBIT margin demonstrates the company has regained operating traction and structural cost discipline. Sustained top-line recovery and improved operating profitability underpin durable cash generation potential and investment capacity over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Thin net profitability
Very low net margins and weak ROE limit internal capital generation and leave little buffer for adverse shocks. Persistently thin bottom-line results constrain sustained reinvestment, dividend potential and reduce resilience to margin compression from competition or regulatory shifts over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Operational rebound & margin improvement
A large rebound in TTM revenue alongside a materially higher EBIT margin demonstrates the company has regained operating traction and structural cost discipline. Sustained top-line recovery and improved operating profitability underpin durable cash generation potential and investment capacity over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
TIM Group (TIIAY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$18.07B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)723.00
Price to Earnings (P/E)110.7
Beta (1Y)0.45
Revenue Growth7.88%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees26,282
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryTelecommunications Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.53
Shares Outstanding2,135,725,800
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume723
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.13
Price to Book (P/B)0.45
Price to Sales (P/S)0.42
P/FCF Ratio6.66
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.55
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.04
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit14.98
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.58
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.28
Revenue Forecast (FY)$16.80B
TIM Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Telecom Italia S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides fixed and mobile telecommunications services in Italy and internationally. The company operates through Domestic, Brazil, and Other Operations segments. It offers fixed and mobile voi...
How the Company Makes Money
TIM primarily makes money by charging recurring service fees for telecommunications connectivity. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Mobile services: monthly plans and usage-based charges for voice, messaging, and mobile data provided to r...
TIM Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a largely constructive operational and strategic picture: core revenue and underlying EBITDA trends were healthy once the planned MVNO phasing is excluded; TIM highlighted clear growth engines (TIM Enterprise, cloud/sovereign solutions, TIM Brazil), disciplined CapEx, progress on capital structure moves, and proactive AI and product strategies (TIM Premium). Near-term headwinds include MVNO-related revenue/EBITDA drag, seasonal working capital absorption leading to a negative equity free cash flow in Q1, a one-off pre-retirement provision, and regulatory/corporate uncertainties tied to the Poste offer and tower/MSA dynamics. Management confirmed full‑year guidance and outlined a back‑end loaded EBITDA profile (Q1 contribution ~19% rising to ~29–31% in Q4), signaling confidence in execution. Overall, positive operational momentum and strategic initiatives outweigh the transitory financial and corporate uncertainties.Positive Updates
Group revenue growth and underlying strength
Group revenues increased 1.4% y/y to EUR 3.3 billion; excluding the MVNO impact revenues grew 3.1% y/y, indicating continued commercial momentum across core businesses.
Negative Updates
MVNO transition materially hit Q1 results
MVNO phasing accounted for EUR 54 million lower revenues and almost EUR 50 million lower EBITDA after lease vs Q1 last year; impact was front-loaded in H1 and caused the pronounced Q1 decline in wholesale-related lines.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Group revenue growth and underlying strength
Group revenues increased 1.4% y/y to EUR 3.3 billion; excluding the MVNO impact revenues grew 3.1% y/y, indicating continued commercial momentum across core businesses.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company confirmed its full‑year guidance and a back‑end loaded EBITDA‑after‑lease profile, noting Q1 group revenues of €3.3bn (+1.4% y/y; +3.1% excl. MVNO), EBITDA after lease of €0.8bn (‑2.7% y/y; +4.1% excl. MVNO), CapEx of €0.4bn (12.5% of revenues), EBITDA after lease minus CapEx up >5% to ~€0.4bn, equity free cash flow of ‑€0.4bn, and net debt after lease of €7.3bn (leverage 1.99x). Domestic: revenues €2.2bn (‑0.9% y/y; total revenues +1.5% excl. MVNO, service revenues +3% excl. MVNO), EBITDA after lease €0.4bn (‑8.2% y/y; +4.5% excl. MVNO), CapEx €0.2bn (~9% of domestic revenues) and EBITDA after lease minus CapEx up 4.1% to ~€0.2bn. The MVNO phasing reduced Q1 revenue by ~€54m and EBITDA by ~€50m versus prior year and is expected to normalize to ~€45m/quarter in H2 (~€180m p.a.), lifting domestic EBITDA contribution from ~19% in Q1 to ~29–31% in Q4. Other metrics and targets reiterated: TIM Enterprise cloud +15% y/y (44% of Enterprise service revenues), National Strategic Hub +50% y/y, planned TIM Enterprise investment ~€500m (2026–28), AI go‑live targeted H2‑2027 with ~50% inbound calls managed by AI, 70% back‑office automation and 50% faster issue resolution, a new pre‑retirement for ~1,000 employees with ~€0.2bn provision and ~€60m annual savings, energy hedges covering ~80% of 2026 and ~50% of 2027 direct consumption, concession fee receipts ~50% imminently and remainder in Q3–Q4, savings‑share conversion following capital cut from €11bn to €6bn, a 10:1 reverse stock split planned for June, and an authorized buyback up to €0.4bn (up to 700m ordinary shares; ~3.3% of share capital) subject to the Sparkle disposal.TIM Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
53
Neutral
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
44
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 13.79B | 13.19B | 14.44B | 16.30B | 15.79B | 15.32B |
| Gross Profit | 1.88B | 4.45B | 6.73B | 8.08B | 9.13B | 9.25B |
| EBITDA | 4.27B | 3.18B | 4.80B | 5.71B | 5.51B | 1.16B |
| Net Income | 124.15M | 297.00M | -610.00M | -1.44B | -2.92B | -8.65B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 37.51B | 36.72B | 37.66B | 62.16B | 62.03B | 69.19B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.60B | 3.52B | 4.46B | 4.97B | 5.00B | 9.15B |
| Total Debt | 14.65B | 13.76B | 14.72B | 32.64B | 31.19B | 32.10B |
| Total Liabilities | 24.02B | 23.24B | 24.30B | 44.65B | 43.30B | 47.15B |
| Stockholders Equity | 12.13B | 12.21B | 11.96B | 13.65B | 15.06B | 17.41B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 366.95M | 827.98M | 402.00M | -25.00M | -1.41B | 323.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.46B | 2.44B | 3.25B | 3.94B | 4.89B | 4.34B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.34B | -1.44B | 4.94B | -4.15B | -5.33B | -5.12B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.29B | -1.83B | -7.41B | -456.00M | -2.87B | 3.16B |
TIM Group Technical Analysis
Positive
5.83
Price Trends
7.73
Positive
7.36
Positive
6.47
Positive
Market Momentum
0.20
Positive
66.64
Neutral
77.26
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TIIAY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.83 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.21, below the 50-day MA of 7.73, and below the 200-day MA of 6.47, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 66.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TIIAY.
TIM Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $21.59B | 16.96 | 9.28% | 5.03% | 10.34% | 17.26% | |
68 Neutral | $10.40B | 12.08 | 17.55% | 7.82% | 8.21% | 30.97% | |
64 Neutral | $16.84B | 17.16 | 12.76% | 6.14% | -6.44% | -27.87% | |
62 Neutral | $34.51B | -72.60 | -0.79% | 3.77% | 16.69% | 87.12% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
59 Neutral | $18.07B | 110.72 | 2.57% | ― | 7.88% | ― |
* Communication Services Sector Average
TIIAY
TIM Group
8.51
4.17
96.28%
TLK
PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk
16.42
0.24
1.46%
VIV
Telefonica Brasil
13.14
3.62
38.01%
TIMB
TIM
22.02
5.71
35.02%
VOD
Vodafone
14.96
5.01
50.38%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.