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TIM Group (TIIAY)
:TIIAY
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TIM Group (TIIAY) AI Stock Analysis

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TIIAY

TIM Group

(OTC:TIIAY)

Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$5.50
▲(4.56% Upside)
The overall stock score of 54 reflects significant financial challenges, including high debt levels and negative profitability, which weigh heavily on the score. While technical indicators show bullish momentum, overbought conditions suggest caution. The high P/E ratio indicates overvaluation, and despite positive earnings call highlights, concerns about cash flow and leadership changes persist.

TIM Group (TIIAY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

TIM Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTelecom Italia S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides fixed and mobile telecommunications services in Italy and internationally. The company operates through Domestic, Brazil, and Other Operations segments. It offers fixed and mobile voice and Internet, and public telephony services, as well as products managed and developed for individuals and families; and voice, data, and Internet services and products, and information and communications technology solutions for small and medium-size enterprises, small offices/home offices, the public sector, large accounts, and enterprises in the fixed and mobile telecommunications markets. The company also manages and develops a portfolio of regulated and unregulated wholesale services for fixed-line and mobile telecommunications operators; and development, engineering, construction, and operation of network infrastructures, information technology (IT), and systems and properties. In addition, it is involved in customer care, operating credit support, loyalty, and retention activities. The company has a strategic partnership with Google Cloud. Telecom Italia S.p.A. was incorporated in 1908 and is headquartered in Rome, Italy.
How the Company Makes MoneyTIM Group generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from its mobile and fixed-line services. The company earns money by charging customers for voice and data plans, broadband subscriptions, and television services. Additionally, TIM Group capitalizes on its extensive network infrastructure by offering wholesale services to other telecom operators. Significant partnerships with technology firms and content providers also contribute to its earnings, allowing TIM to bundle services and create value-added offerings. Furthermore, the company's initiatives in digital services, such as cloud solutions and IoT applications, are emerging revenue sources that align with the growing demand for digital transformation in various sectors.

TIM Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted solid revenue and EBITDA growth, successful price adjustments, and strong performance in Brazil. However, challenges remain with equity free cash flow, pending legal outcomes, and leadership changes.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Total revenues grew by 2.7% year-on-year, with service revenues increasing by 3.3%. EBITDA after lease increased by 5%.
Successful Price Adjustments
Price adjustments across Wireline and mobile customer bases were implemented, with a lower-than-expected impact on churn. This confirms the success of the volume to value strategy.
TIM Brazil Performance
TIM Brazil delivered mid-single digit top-line growth, driven by mobile service revenue. EBITDA after lease margin reached nearly 38% of revenues with year-on-year growth of 6%.
Operational Efficiency
Group CapEx intensity was below the full year target, and EBITDA after lease margin increased by 0.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year.
Negative Updates
Equity Free Cash Flow Challenges
Equity free cash flow was slightly negative in the first half at around EUR 0.1 billion, reflecting seasonal impacts and working capital dynamics.
Pending Legal Outcomes
Awaiting final court ruling on the '98 concession fee, with potential financial implications depending on the outcome.
Leadership Changes
Resignation of Chief Financial Officer Adrian Calaza and Chief Public Affairs Security and International Business Officer Eugenio Santagata, with replacements planned.
Company Guidance
In the recent call, TIM provided guidance indicating that for the first half of 2025, they are on track to meet their full-year targets, both operationally and financially. Key metrics highlighted include a year-on-year total revenue growth of 2.7%, service revenue growth of 3.3%, and an EBITDA after lease increase of 5%. CapEx was reported at EUR 0.8 billion, representing about 13% of total revenues, and equity free cash flow was slightly negative at around EUR 0.1 billion, but turned positive in Q2. The company maintains a stable net debt after lease of EUR 7.5 billion, with a leverage ratio below 2.1x. They anticipate an acceleration of domestic EBITDA in the second half, supported by price increases and operational efficiencies. Despite Adrian Calaza's upcoming departure as CFO, TIM remains focused on executing their strategy and confirms guidance for the full year, with potential for better-than-expected cash flow performance.

TIM Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
TIM Group's financial statements reflect challenges in profitability and cash flow management. Despite some improvement in leverage and revenue growth, persistent negative net income and high debt levels are concerning. The company needs to focus on improving operational efficiency and reducing debt to enhance financial stability and shareholder value.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
The income statement shows a declining trend in gross profit margin from 64.08% in 2020 to 42.53% in TTM 2025, indicating reduced efficiency in generating profit from revenue. Net profit margin has been negative since 2021, with a slight improvement in TTM 2025, but still negative at -2.42%. Revenue growth is inconsistent, with a minor increase of 1.38% in TTM 2025. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have shown some stability, but overall profitability remains a concern.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio, peaking at 2.31 in 2023, indicating significant leverage. Although it has improved to 1.27 in TTM 2025, it remains a risk factor. Return on equity has been negative since 2021, reflecting poor returns for shareholders. The equity ratio has been stable, but the high leverage poses a potential risk to financial stability.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Cash flow analysis shows a negative free cash flow in TTM 2025, with a significant decline in free cash flow growth rate. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low, indicating challenges in converting income into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive but low, suggesting limited cash generation relative to net income.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue13.98B14.44B16.30B15.79B15.32B15.80B
Gross Profit5.95B6.73B8.08B9.13B9.25B10.13B
EBITDA3.48B4.80B5.71B5.51B1.16B7.25B
Net Income-96.00M-610.00M-1.44B-2.92B-8.65B7.22B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets36.45B37.66B62.16B62.03B69.19B73.23B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.88B4.46B4.97B5.00B9.15B5.92B
Total Debt13.37B14.72B31.55B31.19B32.10B29.95B
Total Liabilities23.25B24.30B44.65B43.30B47.15B44.39B
Stockholders Equity11.86B11.96B13.65B15.06B17.41B26.21B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-286.00M402.00M-25.00M-1.41B323.00M1.85B
Operating Cash Flow2.34B3.25B3.94B4.89B4.34B6.55B
Investing Cash Flow6.47B4.94B-4.15B-5.33B-5.12B-3.08B
Financing Cash Flow-6.58B-7.41B-456.00M-2.87B3.16B-2.01B

TIM Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price5.26
Price Trends
50DMA
4.92
Negative
100DMA
4.48
Positive
200DMA
3.63
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.11
Positive
RSI
38.04
Neutral
STOCH
-1.07
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TIIAY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.26 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.16, above the 50-day MA of 4.92, and above the 200-day MA of 3.63, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of -1.07 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TIIAY.

TIM Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
$10.21B16.1113.78%5.61%-7.99%2.16%
73
Outperform
$9.56B15.205.22%2.78%-1.22%-17.07%
67
Neutral
$8.40B11.908.49%4.53%-4.74%-16.57%
60
Neutral
$44.05B4.50-12.81%4.08%1.86%-43.08%
56
Neutral
$3.82B22.47-0.27%2.29%3.89%-107.44%
54
Neutral
$11.67B113.65-1.91%-9.37%
48
Neutral
$9.24B-7.82%4.15%-311.82%
* Communication Services Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TIIAY
TIM Group
4.83
2.23
85.77%
KT
KT
20.43
5.79
39.55%
SKM
Sk Telecom
22.15
-0.84
-3.65%
TEO
Telecom Argentina
8.91
2.08
30.45%
TIMB
TIM
21.47
6.84
46.75%
FYBR
Frontier Communications Parent
37.13
8.62
30.24%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 20, 2025