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Telefonica (TEF)
NYSE:TEF

Telefonica (TEF) AI Stock Analysis

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TEF

Telefonica

(NYSE:TEF)

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Neutral 45 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$4.00
▲(1.78% Upside)
Telefonica's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its financial performance challenges, including declining revenue and profitability. The technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, further weighing down the score. While the high dividend yield offers some appeal, the negative P/E ratio reflects underlying financial difficulties.
Positive Factors
Strategic Growth Plans
Telefónica's long-term growth strategy, with planned revenue and EBITDA growth, indicates a focus on sustainable expansion and operational efficiency.
Network Expansion
The expansion of fiber and 5G networks enhances service quality and customer reach, strengthening Telefónica's competitive position in core markets.
Debt Reduction
Reducing financial debt through asset sales improves Telefónica's balance sheet health, providing more financial flexibility for future investments.
Negative Factors
Declining Revenue Growth
Declining revenue growth indicates challenges in maintaining market share and could impact long-term profitability if not addressed.
Profitability Challenges
Ongoing profitability issues highlight inefficiencies and may hinder Telefónica's ability to reinvest in growth and innovation.
Free Cash Flow Decline
Decreasing free cash flow limits Telefónica's capacity to fund operations and strategic initiatives, posing a risk to financial stability.

Telefonica (TEF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Telefonica Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTelefónica, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides telecommunications services in Europe and Latin America. The company's mobile and related services and products comprise mobile voice, value added, mobile data and Internet, wholesale, corporate, roaming, fixed wireless, and trunking and paging services. Its fixed telecommunication services include PSTN lines; ISDN accesses; public telephone services; local, domestic, and international long-distance and fixed-to-mobile communications; corporate communications; supplementary value-added services; video telephony; intelligent network; and telephony information services, as well as leases and sells handset equipment. The company also provides Internet and broadband multimedia services comprising Internet service provider, portal and network, retail and wholesale broadband access, narrowband switched access, high-speed Internet through fibre to the home, and voice over Internet protocol services. In addition, it offers leased line, virtual private network, fibre optics, web hosting and application, outsourcing and consultancy, desktop, and system integration and professional services. Further, the company offers wholesale services for telecommunication operators, including domestic interconnection and international wholesale services; leased lines for other operators; and local loop leasing services, as well as bit stream services, wholesale line rental accesses, and leased ducts for other operators' fiber deployment. Additionally, it provides video/TV services; smart connectivity and services, and consumer IoT products; financial and other payment, security, cloud computing, advertising, big data, and digital telco experience services; virtual assistants; digital home platforms; and Movistar Home devices. It also offers online telemedicine, home insurance, music streaming, and consumer loan services. The company was incorporated in 1924 and is headquartered in Madrid, Spain.
How the Company Makes MoneyTelefónica generates revenue primarily through its telecommunications services, which include mobile and fixed-line voice services, data transmission, and broadband internet access. The company earns significant income from mobile subscriptions, with a large customer base across its various markets. Additionally, it provides value-added services such as cloud computing, cybersecurity, and Internet of Things (IoT) solutions, contributing to its overall revenue. Key revenue streams include monthly subscription fees, usage charges, and sales of devices. Telefónica also engages in partnerships with content providers and technology firms to enhance its service offerings, which further supports its earnings. The company's extensive presence in both developed and emerging markets allows it to capitalize on diverse revenue opportunities, including business solutions and wholesale services.

Telefonica Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2025
(Q1-2025)
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% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Telefonica's earnings call for the first quarter of 2025 highlighted strong operational performance in its core markets such as Spain and Brazil, as well as progress in strategic simplification in Hispam. However, challenges remain with forex impacts on financial metrics and operational difficulties in the Hispam region. While there are clear positive trends in customer engagement and network expansion, the financial performance is somewhat dampened by external factors like forex and seasonality in cash flow.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Customer Engagement and Network Expansion
NPS scores reached new highs, with Spain leading the market. Fiber was rolled out to over 1.5 million premises, and 5G coverage reached 75% in core markets.
Commercial and Financial Strength in Spain
Telefonica Spain showed strong commercial momentum with customer growth in all accesses for the seventh consecutive quarter. Domestic revenue grew by 1.7% year-on-year.
Resilient Performance in Brazil
Vivo reached its largest customer base with revenue rising 6%, above inflation, driven by higher ARPU and growth in mobile contracts and fiber accesses.
Operational Efficiency in Germany
Telefonica Deutschland maintained robust commercial momentum with a stable EBITDA margin year-on-year and a 4.8% growth in EBITDA minus CapEx.
Strategic Simplification in Hispam
Completed the sale of Telefonica Argentina for €1.2 billion, and signed a binding agreement to sell Telefonica Colombia.
Positive Trends in Telefonica Tech
Telefonica Tech increased revenue by 6.6% year-on-year, with commercial activity growing and bookings up by 7%.
Negative Updates
Impact of Forex on Financial Metrics
Reported results were negatively affected by forex, impacting the financial metrics despite organic growth in main metrics.
Challenges in Hispam Region
EBITDA minus CapEx fell by 31% due to lower EBITDA and higher lease costs, primarily in Colombia.
Seasonality Affecting Free Cash Flow
Free cash flow from continuing operations totaled minus €205 million, affected by seasonality in working capital, leases, and financial payments.
Company Guidance
In the recent Telefonica results conference call for the first fiscal period of 2025, significant metrics and strategic guidance were shared. The company highlighted robust operational performance across its core markets of Spain, Brazil, and Germany, with an emphasis on customer engagement, network transformation, and efficiency. Telefonica achieved notable milestones, including a record high Net Promoter Score (NPS) and expanded fiber and 5G coverage, reaching 75% in core markets. The company also made significant strides in network virtualization and legacy service shutdowns, optimizing operations by completing the copper switch-off in Spain and shutting down 3G in Germany and 2G in Uruguay. Financially, Telefonica reiterated its 2025 guidance, expecting revenue, EBITDA, and EBITDA minus CapEx to grow organically, with a stable free cash flow similar to 2024 figures, despite forex challenges. The company reduced net debt and maintained a solid liquidity position, with its net debt to EBITDA ratio at 2.67 times. Additionally, strategic moves included the sale of operations in Argentina and Peru and a pending agreement in Colombia, highlighting the company's focus on financial flexibility and simplification. The strategic review, expected to conclude in the second half of the year, will further refine the company’s operational focus and financial strategy.

Telefonica Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Telefonica faces challenges in revenue growth and profitability, with significant net losses impacting overall financial health. While leverage is moderate, the negative return on equity and declining free cash flow growth highlight potential risks. The company needs to focus on improving operational efficiency and profitability to enhance financial stability.
Income Statement
Telefonica's income statement shows a declining revenue trend with a negative revenue growth rate of -1.70% in the TTM period. The company is facing profitability challenges, as indicated by a negative net profit margin of -6.12% and a declining EBIT margin. The gross profit margin remains strong, but the overall profitability is hindered by significant net losses.
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.44 in the TTM period, indicating manageable leverage compared to previous years. However, the return on equity is negative, suggesting inefficiencies in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is stable, showing a reasonable proportion of equity financing.
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals a decline in free cash flow growth by -9.64% in the TTM period, indicating potential cash generation issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting that the company is generating cash from operations despite net losses. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio indicates that cash flow is not sufficient to cover net losses.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue38.27B41.31B40.65B39.99B39.28B43.08B
Gross Profit32.04B28.76B20.23B27.84B27.79B30.93B
EBITDA14.30B12.35B10.34B14.79B22.52B14.36B
Net Income-2.12B-49.00M-892.00M2.01B8.14B1.58B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets92.57B100.50B104.32B109.64B109.21B105.05B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments6.37B9.26B7.67B8.54B10.66B8.10B
Total Debt42.90B45.02B44.12B45.39B48.17B50.85B
Total Liabilities71.22B77.75B77.23B77.93B80.53B86.79B
Stockholders Equity17.61B19.35B21.85B25.09B22.21B11.23B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow4.89B5.20B5.93B5.41B4.18B6.18B
Operating Cash Flow11.05B10.99B12.59B11.76B12.14B13.20B
Investing Cash Flow-6.01B-5.22B-4.63B-5.33B6.97B-7.79B
Financing Cash Flow-7.01B-4.67B-7.77B-7.92B-15.35B-5.44B

Telefonica Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price3.93
Price Trends
50DMA
4.09
Negative
100DMA
4.58
Negative
200DMA
4.74
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.05
Negative
RSI
42.16
Neutral
STOCH
18.69
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TEF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.93 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.00, below the 50-day MA of 4.09, and below the 200-day MA of 4.74, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.69 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TEF.

Telefonica Risk Analysis

Telefonica disclosed 16 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Telefonica reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Telefonica Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
$19.98B18.858.36%5.03%-3.16%4.70%
75
Outperform
$20.26B15.3915.54%6.14%-5.21%-7.45%
69
Neutral
$30.52B5.7034.79%0.42%13.46%
60
Neutral
$48.67B4.58-11.27%4.14%2.83%-41.78%
60
Neutral
$62.38B16.3917.70%2.69%1.14%83.48%
58
Neutral
$31.99B-7.40-7.08%3.77%19.67%-278.51%
45
Neutral
$22.50B-10.17-0.70%7.47%-5.49%-75.51%
* Communication Services Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TEF
Telefonica
3.93
0.15
4.00%
AMX
America Movil
20.50
6.95
51.29%
CHTR
Charter Communications
206.67
-139.62
-40.32%
TLK
PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk
21.39
5.93
38.39%
VIV
Telefonica Brasil
12.42
5.06
68.75%
VOD
Vodafone
13.55
5.66
71.71%

Telefonica Corporate Events

Telefónica Launches Tender Offer for €2.25 Billion in Hybrid Notes as Part of Capital Management Drive
Jan 12, 2026

On 12 January 2026, Telefónica Europe B.V., irrevocably guaranteed by Telefónica, S.A., launched cash tender offers for three outstanding euro-denominated undated deeply subordinated hybrid note series maturing around first call dates in 2026, 2027 and 2028, with an aggregate principal amount of EUR 2.25 billion. The offers, which run until 17:00 CET on 19 January 2026, are designed to proactively manage Telefónica’s hybrid capital layer and allow investors to switch into newly issued hybrid securities with 5.25-year and 8.25-year non-call periods, with pricing terms that include fixed purchase prices for the 2026 and 2027 notes and a market-based fixed-spread mechanism for the 2028 notes; repurchased notes may be cancelled, and if at least 75% of any series is bought back and cancelled, Telefónica may exercise its call right to redeem the remaining notes at par plus accrued interest, underlining an active liability-management strategy that could optimize its cost of capital and capital structure over time.

The most recent analyst rating on (TEF) stock is a Sell with a $3.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Telefonica stock, see the TEF Stock Forecast page.

Telefónica Sets €2.5 Billion Workforce Exit Plan Under 2026–2030 Transformation Strategy
Dec 22, 2025

On 22 December 2025, Telefónica announced that, as part of its Transform & Grow Plan 2026–2030, it has reached agreements with major trade unions to extend collective bargaining agreements for Telefónica España and its corporate units through 31 December 2030 and to approve a new collective agreement for Movistar Plus+. In parallel, the company and unions agreed on exit plans covering around 5,500 employees across Telefónica España, Movistar Plus+ and various corporate units, with a total pre-tax provision of about €2.5 billion and expected average annual direct cost savings of roughly €600 million for the Group from 2028, while cash generation is projected to benefit as early as 2026 as departures begin in the first quarter. The measures, which include simplification of the operating model and a shift toward more flexible, digital ways of working, are designed to streamline operations, retain and attract talent, and strengthen Telefónica’s competitiveness in a highly contested telecoms landscape, with significant implications for its workforce structure and long-term cost base.

The most recent analyst rating on (TEF) stock is a Sell with a $3.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Telefonica stock, see the TEF Stock Forecast page.

Telefónica Plans NYSE and LSE Delisting to Streamline Operations
Dec 17, 2025

On December 17, 2025, Telefónica announced plans to delist its American Depositary Shares (ADSs) and several debt securities from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The move aligns with its strategic plan to reduce administrative costs and simplify its operations, with alternative listings planned in Euronext Dublin and continued trading on Spanish Stock Exchanges. Additionally, Telefónica will delist from the Lima Stock Exchange and intends to deregister its U.S. securities with the SEC. This decision is not expected to impact its clients, partners, or commercial presence in the United States, while ensuring continued compliance with financial reporting standards.

The most recent analyst rating on (TEF) stock is a Sell with a $3.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Telefonica stock, see the TEF Stock Forecast page.

Telefónica Secures LaLiga Broadcasting Rights for 2027-2032
Nov 28, 2025

On November 28, 2025, Telefónica Audiovisual Digital, S.A.U. was provisionally awarded exclusive broadcasting rights for five matches per matchday of LaLiga’s Primera División for pay television in Spain. This agreement, covering the 2027/2028 to 2031/2032 seasons, is valued at 2,635.85 million euros. Telefónica aims to ensure Movistar Plus+ customers have access to all LaLiga matches, complementing its existing European competition rights. The award is contingent on finalizing an agreement with LaLiga within 30 working days.

The most recent analyst rating on (TEF) stock is a Hold with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Telefonica stock, see the TEF Stock Forecast page.

Telefónica Announces New Committee Appointments
Nov 26, 2025

On November 26, 2025, Telefónica’s Board of Directors announced changes to the composition of its committees. The Board appointed Mr. César Mascaraque Alonso as a member of both the Executive Commission and the Nominating, Compensation and Corporate Governance Committee, and Mr. Alejandro Reynal Ample as a member of the Audit and Control Committee. These appointments reflect Telefónica’s commitment to strengthening its governance structure, potentially impacting its strategic oversight and operational efficiency.

The most recent analyst rating on (TEF) stock is a Hold with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Telefonica stock, see the TEF Stock Forecast page.

Telefónica Secures Exclusive UEFA Media Rights for 2027-2031
Nov 20, 2025

On November 20, 2025, Telefónica announced it has been provisionally awarded exclusive media rights for major UEFA football competitions, including the Champions League and Europa League, for the seasons from 2027 to 2031. This acquisition, valued at 1,464 million euros, will enable Telefónica to enhance its content offerings for residential customers by securing premium European football content, pending final contract negotiations with UEFA.

The most recent analyst rating on (TEF) stock is a Hold with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Telefonica stock, see the TEF Stock Forecast page.

Telefónica Outlines Strategic Growth Plans Up to 2030
Nov 4, 2025

On November 4, 2025, Telefónica held its Capital Markets Day in Madrid, outlining strategic guidelines for growth up to 2030. The company anticipates revenue growth with a CAGR of 1.5-2.5% from 2025 to 2028, accelerating to 2.5-3.5% from 2028 to 2030. Adjusted EBITDA and OpCFaL are expected to follow similar growth patterns. Telefónica plans to reduce its CapEx/Sales ratio to around 12% by 2026-2028 and further to 11% by 2030, while targeting a leverage reduction to 2.5x Net debt/EBITDAaL by 2028. The company also announced a 2025 dividend of 0.30 euro per share, with future dividends based on a 40-60% payout of the FCF base.

The most recent analyst rating on (TEF) stock is a Hold with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Telefonica stock, see the TEF Stock Forecast page.

Telefónica Q3 2025 Results: Growth and Strategic Transformations
Nov 4, 2025

Telefónica reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, highlighting consistent growth and strong operational performance across its business units. The company achieved a year-on-year revenue growth of 0.4%, with notable increases in Spain and Brazil. Telefónica’s focus on customer satisfaction and network expansion, particularly in fiber and 5G, contributed to its positive performance. The company also continued its strategic portfolio transformation in Latin America, selling several regional operations. Telefónica confirmed its guidance for 2025, expecting continued growth in revenue, EBITDA, and EBITDAaL-CapEx, while maintaining a CapEx to sales ratio below 12.5%.

The most recent analyst rating on (TEF) stock is a Hold with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Telefonica stock, see the TEF Stock Forecast page.

Telefónica Reports Q3 2025 Results with Strategic Network Expansion
Nov 4, 2025

Telefónica, S.A. reported its financial results for the first nine months of 2025, highlighting a strategic focus on customer-centric operations and network efficiency. The company achieved notable milestones such as the expansion of its fiber and 5G networks, with 82.6 million fiber connections and 78% 5G coverage in core markets. Despite a slight decline in reported revenue, the company saw organic growth in service and B2B revenues, reflecting its successful portfolio transformation and strong customer engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (TEF) stock is a Hold with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Telefonica stock, see the TEF Stock Forecast page.

Telefónica Completes Sale of Otecel to Millicom
Oct 31, 2025

On October 30, 2025, Telefónica announced the completion of the sale of its Ecuadorian subsidiary, Otecel S.A., to Millicom Spain, S.L. for USD 380 million. This transaction, part of Telefónica’s strategy to reduce its exposure in Hispanoamerica, resulted in a reduction of the company’s net financial debt by approximately EUR 273 million, aligning with its asset portfolio management policy.

The most recent analyst rating on (TEF) stock is a Hold with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Telefonica stock, see the TEF Stock Forecast page.

Telefónica Announces Board Restructuring and New Appointments
Oct 22, 2025

On October 22, 2025, Telefónica announced changes in its Board of Directors and its committees. Mr. Francisco Javier de Paz Mancho resigned from his director position to take on executive responsibilities within the Telefónica Group. Mr. César Mascaraque Alonso was appointed as an Independent Director, and Ms. Ana María Sala Andrés was appointed as Chairwoman of the Sustainability and Regulation Committee. These changes reflect Telefónica’s strategic focus on strengthening its governance and leadership structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (TEF) stock is a Hold with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Telefonica stock, see the TEF Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 08, 2025