TH International (THCH)
NASDAQ:THCH
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TH International
(NASDAQ:THCH)
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Rating:43Neutral
Price Target:
$2.00
▼(-11.50% Downside)
Action:DowngradedDate:01/27/26
The score is driven primarily by very weak financial performance (losses, cash burn, and negative equity). Technicals also lean bearish with the stock below major moving averages and negative MACD. The earnings call adds some support from sales and loyalty growth, but profitability pressure and negative EBITDA keep overall risk elevated.
Positive Factors
System & Same‑Store Sales Growth
Sustained system sales (+12.8% YoY) and positive same-store sales indicate durable consumer demand and improving unit economics at scale. Over 2–6 months this supports franchising momentum, royalty/fee income growth, and a more predictable revenue base as new and existing locations gain traction.
Negative Factors
Negative Stockholders' Equity
Negative equity is a durable solvency flag: it constrains borrowing capacity, may trigger covenant/credit issues, and weakens stakeholder confidence. Over months this limits flexibility to invest or weather shocks, and can force dilutive financings or restructuring if operating cash flow doesn't improve.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
System & Same‑Store Sales Growth
Sustained system sales (+12.8% YoY) and positive same-store sales indicate durable consumer demand and improving unit economics at scale. Over 2–6 months this supports franchising momentum, royalty/fee income growth, and a more predictable revenue base as new and existing locations gain traction.
Read all positive factors
TH International (THCH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$72.47M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)7.98K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.23
Revenue Growth-8.52%
EPS Growth49.12%
CountryUS
Employees2,367
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.33
Shares Outstanding33,243,584
10 Day Avg. Volume7,038
30 Day Avg. Volume7,982
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.04
Price to Book (P/B)-1.00
Price to Sales (P/S)0.60
P/FCF Ratio-5.90
Enterprise Value/Market Cap29.57
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.60
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.12
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-11.35
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)-4.07
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.64B
TH International Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
TH International (THCH) is a prominent player in the food and beverage sector, specializing in the development, operation, and franchising of fast-casual dining concepts. The company is best known for its flagship brand, which focuses on providing...
How the Company Makes Money
TH International generates revenue primarily through the franchising of its restaurant brands, where franchisees pay initial franchise fees and ongoing royalties based on their sales. Additionally, the company earns income from corporate-owned res...
TH International Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Dec 09, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 14, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted strong growth in system sales and loyalty program membership, as well as successful expansion in food and delivery revenues. However, challenges remain with declining revenues from company-owned stores and increased costs leading to negative EBITDA margin.Positive Updates
Positive Net New Store Openings
Returned to positive net new store openings and continued strong momentum in system sales with a 12.8% year-over-year growth.
Negative Updates
Drop in Company-Owned and Operated Store Revenues
Revenues from company-owned and operated stores dropped by 5.5% year-over-year due to planned closure of underperforming stores.
Read all updates
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Positive Net New Store Openings
Returned to positive net new store openings and continued strong momentum in system sales with a 12.8% year-over-year growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
In the third quarter of 2025, Tims China achieved notable growth, with system sales increasing by 12.8% year-over-year and same-store sales growing by 3.3%. The company saw a 24.2% rise in food revenues, which now constitute 36.5% of total sales, up from 31.5% the previous year. Delivery revenues also surged by 23.1% year-over-year, contributing to a 20.9% increase in delivery orders from company-owned and operated stores. Despite higher delivery costs, the company maintained a stable adjusted store contribution margin of 8.1% for the first nine months of both 2024 and 2025. Digital order penetration reached 91%, an all-time high, and franchised and retail business revenues grew by 25.0%. Tims China expanded its footprint to 91 cities, with a robust community of 27.9 million loyalty club members, marking a 22.3% increase. The company remains focused on enhancing operational efficiencies and expects to achieve double-digit store level margins next year.TH International Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
30
Negative
Balance Sheet
25
Negative
Cash Flow
35
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.34B | 1.39B | 1.58B | 1.01B | 643.37M | 212.08M |
| Gross Profit | 301.16M | 213.56M | 417.16M | 33.05M | 13.81M | 6.62M |
| EBITDA | -188.80M | -266.19M | -686.50M | -431.72M | -297.64M | -115.22M |
| Net Income | -337.93M | -412.08M | -876.25M | -742.65M | -381.72M | -142.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.29B | 1.56B | 2.22B | 2.64B | 1.28B | 580.36M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 131.61M | 161.37M | 225.72M | 611.45M | 395.00M | 180.35M |
| Total Debt | 1.80B | 1.88B | 1.87B | 1.77B | 522.42M | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 2.32B | 2.40B | 2.64B | 2.53B | 945.80M | 147.31M |
| Stockholders Equity | -1.04B | -840.89M | -427.21M | 108.85M | 335.54M | 428.29M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -34.74M | -142.51M | -488.53M | -621.86M | -580.28M | -290.52M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -34.74M | -39.67M | -196.13M | -286.93M | -244.97M | -145.77M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -53.75M | -8.04M | 60.00M | -705.17M | -335.28M | -144.75M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 56.59M | 26.00M | 80.83M | 827.16M | 798.00M | 221.12M |
TH International Technical Analysis
Positive
2.26
Price Trends
2.00
Positive
2.21
Negative
2.44
Negative
Market Momentum
0.02
Negative
57.68
Neutral
82.83
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For THCH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.26 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.07, above the 50-day MA of 2.00, and below the 200-day MA of 2.44, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.83 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for THCH.
TH International Risk Analysis
TH International disclosed 88 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TH International reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
TH International Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $35.53M | 18.57 | 19.70% | ― | 0.35% | 9.25% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
47 Neutral | $57.18M | -0.60 | -51.90% | ― | 51.57% | -367.14% | |
44 Neutral | $60.91M | -3.16 | 25.76% | ― | -3.61% | 2.06% | |
43 Neutral | $72.47M | -2.06 | 36.11% | ― | -8.52% | 49.12% | |
42 Neutral | $50.70M | -3.60 | -8.89% | 1.27% | 9.36% | -249.08% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
THCH
TH International
2.18
0.00
0.00%
RAVE
Rave Restaurant Group
2.50
0.32
14.68%
RRGB
Red Robin Gourmet
3.37
0.43
14.63%
STKS
The ONE Group Hospitality
1.83
-1.20
-39.60%
GENK
GEN Restaurant Group, Inc. Class A
1.54
-3.07
-66.59%
TH International Corporate Events
Tims China Reports Q3 2025 Financial Growth and Strategic Developments
Dec 9, 2025
On December 9, 2025, TH International Limited announced its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, reporting a 12.8% year-over-year increase in system sales to RMB419.9 million. Despite a slight decrease in total revenues by 0.4% compare...
TH International Completes $89.9 Million Convertible Notes Issuance
Dec 3, 2025
On December 2, 2025, TH International Limited announced the completion of its issuance of senior secured convertible notes due in September 2029, totaling approximately $89.9 million. This move also involved amending the company’s existing 2...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.