TH International (THCH)
NASDAQ:THCH
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TH International
(NASDAQ:THCH)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$2.00
▼(-11.50% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance—persistent losses, sharply lower gross margin, negative equity and high debt—despite improved cash-burn trends. Technicals also remain bearish with the stock trading below all major moving averages and negative MACD. Earnings call guidance adds some support via cost-reduction and profitability targets, but near-term same-store-sales and delivery margin pressures, plus liquidity/financing concerns, limit confidence; valuation is also constrained by ongoing losses and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Large loyalty & digital penetration
A 31M-strong loyalty base and very high digital order penetration create durable customer engagement and recurring transactions. This scale supports targeted promotions, higher frequency, lower marketing per sale, and valuable behavioral data that can sustain revenue and margin improvement over multiple years.
Negative Factors
Weak balance sheet
Negative equity and ~RMB/USD2.0B debt reflect accumulated losses that constrain financial flexibility. This capital-structure strain raises refinancing and covenant risk, limits ability to invest organically, and increases reliance on external financing — a persistent solvency concern over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Large loyalty & digital penetration
A 31M-strong loyalty base and very high digital order penetration create durable customer engagement and recurring transactions. This scale supports targeted promotions, higher frequency, lower marketing per sale, and valuable behavioral data that can sustain revenue and margin improvement over multiple years.
Read all positive factors
TH International (THCH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$65.16M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)7.98K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.33
Revenue Growth-6.26%
EPS Growth9.00%
CountryUS
Employees2,367
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-13.26
Shares Outstanding33,243,584
10 Day Avg. Volume7,038
30 Day Avg. Volume7,982
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.55
Price to Book (P/B)-0.46
Price to Sales (P/S)0.44
P/FCF Ratio-7.23
Enterprise Value/Market Cap34.70
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.72
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.80
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-13.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)-4.72
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.47B
TH International Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
TH International (THCH) is a prominent player in the food and beverage sector, specializing in the development, operation, and franchising of fast-casual dining concepts. The company is best known for its flagship brand, which focuses on providing...
How the Company Makes Money
TH International primarily generates revenue through its Tim Hortons-branded restaurant network in China via a mix of company-operated and franchised locations. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Retail sales at company-operated restaurant...
TH International Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 14, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveys a cautiously optimistic outlook: operational momentum in 2025 included system sales growth (+7.6% full year), significant loyalty expansion (+29% YoY to 31M members), strong product innovation contributions (>25% of top line), franchise interest and pipeline strength, and corporate-level margin improvements (adjusted EBITDA). These positives are tempered by near-term headwinds — a Q4 revenue decline (-7.3% YoY), system-wide same-store sales contraction (-2.4% in 2025) and delivery-related margin pressure that compressed company-owned store contribution margins (7.0% vs 7.4% prior year). Liquidity dipped year-over-year and the company engaged in notable financing actions. Management positions 2025 as a transition year focused on pruning underperforming stores and improving unit economics, and they set targets for further cost reductions and at least 100 net store openings in 2026. Overall, the call highlights recovery and structural improvements but acknowledges meaningful near-term operational and competitive challenges.Positive Updates
Full-Year System Sales Growth
Total system sales reached RMB 1.57 billion in 2025, a 7.6% increase versus 2024, driven by expansion to 1,047 stores across 92 cities and 25 net new store openings in 2025.
Negative Updates
Q4 Revenue Decline and Company Revenue Pressure
Total revenues in Q4 2025 dropped by 7.3% year-over-year, a decline management attributed primarily to closure/pruning of underperforming company-owned stores.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full-Year System Sales Growth
Total system sales reached RMB 1.57 billion in 2025, a 7.6% increase versus 2024, driven by expansion to 1,047 stores across 92 cities and 25 net new store openings in 2025.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's 2026 guidance emphasized profitability and disciplined expansion: they target at least 100 net new store openings (company‑owned and franchised), accelerated sub‑franchising and special‑channel rollouts (railway/hospital/highway), while rolling out the made‑to‑order model with expected payback of 2–3 years per store; they plan to reduce food & packaging costs as a percentage of revenues by 1–2 percentage points in 2026, mitigate delivery‑related costs through pricing and aggregator negotiation, and improve/maintain store contribution margins versus the 2025 company‑owned level of 7% (noting 2024‑vintage stores averaged ~15%); management also aims to further expand adjusted corporate EBITDA margin beyond 2025’s improvements (full‑year +1 ppt; Q4 +3.3 ppt), leveraging supply‑chain optimization and unit‑economics work, while operating with a loyalty base of >31 million members (29% YoY), digital orders at 89.3% of total in Q4, Q4 delivery orders +33.7% YoY, and year‑end liquidity of RMB129.7 million (USD18.5 million).TH International Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
14
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
6
Very Negative
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
| Breakdown | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.28B | 1.39B | 1.56B | 1.01B | 643.37M |
| Gross Profit | 77.62M | 213.56M | 156.34M | 33.05M | 13.81M |
| EBITDA | -142.11M | -266.19M | -656.06M | -596.54M | -306.75M |
| Net Income | -422.65M | -412.08M | -876.25M | -742.65M | -381.72M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.18B | 1.56B | 2.22B | 2.64B | 1.28B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 129.79M | 161.37M | 225.72M | 614.92M | 395.00M |
| Total Debt | 1.97B | 1.88B | 1.81B | 1.77B | 522.42M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.41B | 2.40B | 2.64B | 2.53B | 945.80M |
| Stockholders Equity | -1.24B | -840.89M | -427.21M | 108.85M | 335.54M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -78.33M | -142.51M | -488.53M | -621.86M | -580.28M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -12.71M | -39.67M | -196.13M | -286.93M | -244.97M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -62.83M | -8.04M | 60.00M | -705.17M | -335.28M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 21.70M | 26.00M | 80.83M | 827.16M | 798.00M |
TH International Technical Analysis
Negative
2.26
Price Trends
2.06
Negative
2.08
Negative
2.31
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.03
Positive
44.53
Neutral
46.62
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For THCH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.26 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.02, above the 50-day MA of 2.06, and below the 200-day MA of 2.31, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.62 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for THCH.
TH International Risk Analysis
TH International disclosed 88 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TH International reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
TH International Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $40.65M | 11.28 | 19.21% | ― | 3.20% | 9.92% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
51 Neutral | $59.97M | 4.35 | -65.14% | ― | 0.99% | -217.64% | |
48 Neutral | $78.78M | -2.24 | -27.46% | 1.27% | -2.72% | -1962.01% | |
45 Neutral | $65.16M | -1.34 | 36.11% | ― | -6.26% | 9.00% | |
44 Neutral | $84.17M | ― | 27.56% | ― | -4.49% | 64.71% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
THCH
TH International
1.93
-0.75
-27.99%
RAVE
Rave Restaurant Group
2.96
0.22
8.03%
RRGB
Red Robin Gourmet
4.66
1.60
52.29%
STKS
The ONE Group Hospitality
1.97
-1.66
-45.73%
GENK
GEN Restaurant Group, Inc. Class A
2.38
-1.29
-35.15%
TH International Corporate Events
Tims China Posts Mixed 2025 Results as It Shifts Toward Made‑to‑Order Stores and Cost Efficiency
Apr 15, 2026
TH International Limited (Tims China) reported unaudited results for the fourth quarter and full year ended Dec. 31, 2025, on April 14, 2026, showing a mixed top-line picture but continued network expansion. System sales for the fourth quarter ros...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.