TH International (THCH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $66.82M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 7.98K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.21
• Revenue Growth: -8.52%
• EPS Growth: 49.12%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,367
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): -0.32
• Shares Outstanding: 33,243,584
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 7,038
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 7,982
• PEG Ratio: 0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): -1.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.60
• P/FCF Ratio: -5.90
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 31.63
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.58
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.02
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -11.19
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 43 Neutral
• Price Target: $2.00 ▼(-11.50% Downside)

The score is driven primarily by very weak financial performance (losses, cash burn, and negative equity). Technicals also lean bearish with the stock below major moving averages and negative MACD. The earnings call adds some support from sales and loyalty growth, but profitability pressure and negative EBITDA keep overall risk elevated.

Positive Factors

System and same-store sales growth

Sustained system sales and positive same-store sales indicate enduring consumer demand for the Tim Hortons brand in China. This supports franchisee economics, network effects, and topline scalability over the next several quarters, aiding recovery of company performance and margin leverage as volumes grow.

Digital penetration and loyalty expansion

Very high digital penetration and rapid loyalty growth create a durable revenue engine: lower transaction costs, better customer retention, higher-frequency ordering, and data-driven marketing. These structural advantages support unit economics and franchise value over the medium term.

Franchise expansion and net new stores

A clear shift toward franchising reduces capital intensity and accelerates network growth without heavy company cash outlays. Expanding the franchised base improves cash flow stability, diversifies revenue streams, and enhances return scalability over multiple quarters.

Negative Factors

Negative profitability and cash burn

Persistently negative EBIT/EBITDA and cash flow indicate structural inability to convert revenue into sustainable profits. Negative shareholders' equity and cash burn force reliance on external financing, limiting reinvestment capacity and increasing insolvency risk over the coming months.

Rising delivery mix compresses margins

A durable shift toward delivery raises variable costs and erodes contribution margins unless offset by pricing, fulfilment efficiency, or lower commissions. Without structural cost control, the delivery mix threatens sustained margin recovery and store-level economics.

Heavy reliance on new convertible debt

Issuing senior secured convertible notes materially alters capital structure and signals dependence on external funding to cover cash needs. This raises leverage and potential dilution, constraining financial flexibility and increasing refinancing and covenant risks over the medium term.

TH International Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

TH International (THCH) is a prominent player in the food and beverage sector, specializing in the development, operation, and franchising of fast-casual dining concepts. The company is best known for its flagship brand, which focuses on providing high-quality, innovative menu options that cater to evolving consumer tastes. THCH operates in various international markets, leveraging its expertise in brand management and restaurant operations to expand its footprint and enhance customer experiences.

How the Company Makes Money

TH International generates revenue primarily through the franchising of its restaurant brands, where franchisees pay initial franchise fees and ongoing royalties based on their sales. Additionally, the company earns income from corporate-owned restaurant locations, which contribute directly to its sales figures. Significant partnerships with suppliers and distributors also play a vital role in enhancing profitability, as they allow THCH to negotiate favorable terms and reduce costs. Furthermore, the company may benefit from promotional collaborations and marketing agreements that help drive brand awareness and customer traffic to its locations.

TH International Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are weak across statements: negative profitability (negative EBIT/EBITDA margins), declining revenue growth, negative operating and free cash flow, and a balance sheet with negative stockholders’ equity indicating elevated solvency risk and reliance on debt financing.

Income Statement

TH International's income statement shows significant challenges with negative profitability metrics. The company has a negative net profit margin and declining revenue growth, indicating struggles in generating profit from its operations. The gross profit margin is low, and both EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, reflecting operational inefficiencies and high costs relative to revenue. The consistent decline in revenue growth rate over recent periods further highlights the company's difficulty in expanding its top line.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a precarious financial position with negative stockholders' equity, indicating potential insolvency risks. The debt-to-equity ratio is negative due to negative equity, suggesting high leverage and financial instability. Although the return on equity appears positive, it is misleading due to the negative equity base. The equity ratio is also negative, underscoring the company's reliance on debt financing and lack of asset-backed equity.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows negative operating and free cash flows, indicating cash burn and potential liquidity issues. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, but this is due to both metrics being negative, which does not reflect operational strength. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, highlighting the company's inability to convert its earnings into cash. The decline in free cash flow growth further exacerbates concerns about cash generation capabilities.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.34B	1.39B	1.58B	1.01B	643.37M	212.08M
Gross Profit	301.16M	213.56M	417.16M	33.05M	13.81M	6.62M
EBITDA	-188.80M	-266.19M	-686.50M	-431.72M	-297.64M	-115.22M
Net Income	-337.93M	-412.08M	-876.25M	-742.65M	-381.72M	-142.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.29B	1.56B	2.22B	2.64B	1.28B	580.36M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	131.61M	161.37M	225.72M	611.45M	395.00M	180.35M
Total Debt	1.80B	1.88B	1.87B	1.77B	522.42M	0.00
Total Liabilities	2.32B	2.40B	2.64B	2.53B	945.80M	147.31M
Stockholders Equity	-1.04B	-840.89M	-427.21M	108.85M	335.54M	428.29M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-34.74M	-142.51M	-488.53M	-621.86M	-580.28M	-290.52M
Operating Cash Flow	-34.74M	-39.67M	-196.13M	-286.93M	-244.97M	-145.77M
Investing Cash Flow	-53.75M	-8.04M	60.00M	-705.17M	-335.28M	-144.75M
Financing Cash Flow	56.59M	26.00M	80.83M	827.16M	798.00M	221.12M

TH International Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 2.26
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For THCH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.26 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.30, below the 50-day MA of 2.37, and below the 200-day MA of 2.61, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.02 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for THCH.

TH International Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RAVE	77 Outperform	$47.47M	17.07	20.05%	―	0.35%	9.25%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
STKS	48 Neutral	$67.19M	-0.58	-51.90%	―	51.57%	-367.14%
THCH	43 Neutral	$66.82M	-1.39	―	―	-8.52%	49.12%
FAT	42 Neutral	$6.85M	-0.02	―	760.71%	-5.26%	-44.78%
RRGB	41 Neutral	$67.01M	-1.16	―	―	-3.61%	2.06%
GENK	41 Neutral	$68.50M	-7.99	-8.89%	1.27%	9.36%	-249.08%

TH International Corporate Events

Tims China Reports Q3 2025 Financial Growth and Strategic Developments

On December 9, 2025, TH International Limited announced its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, reporting a 12.8% year-over-year increase in system sales to RMB419.9 million. Despite a slight decrease in total revenues by 0.4% compared to the previous year, the company experienced positive same-store sales growth of 3.3% for company-owned and operated stores. The company also saw a significant increase in registered loyalty club members, growing by 22.3% year-over-year to 27.9 million. The strategic financial restructuring, including the issuance of senior secured convertible notes, aims to bolster the development of its store network and strengthen the Tim Hortons brand in China.

The most recent analyst rating on (THCH) stock is a Hold with a $2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TH International stock, see the THCH Stock Forecast page.

TH International Completes $89.9 Million Convertible Notes Issuance

On December 2, 2025, TH International Limited announced the completion of its issuance of senior secured convertible notes due in September 2029, totaling approximately $89.9 million. This move also involved amending the company’s existing 2024 unsecured convertible notes and repurchasing all outstanding principal of its variable rate convertible senior notes due 2026. These financial maneuvers are likely to impact the company’s capital structure and provide it with greater financial flexibility, potentially strengthening its position in the competitive Chinese coffee market.

The most recent analyst rating on (THCH) stock is a Hold with a $2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TH International stock, see the THCH Stock Forecast page.

TH International Announces New Convertible Notes Issuance

On October 31, 2025, TH International Limited announced a definitive agreement for the issuance of Senior Secured Convertible Notes and amendments to its existing 2024 unsecured convertible notes. The new notes, due September 2029, amount to approximately $89.9 million and will be used partly to repurchase existing notes due 2026. The transaction, approved by the board, is expected to close in Q4 2025, pending regulatory approvals in China. This strategic financial maneuver aims to strengthen Tims China’s financial position, aligning its debt maturity and conversion terms, and potentially enhancing its market standing.

The most recent analyst rating on (THCH) stock is a Hold with a $2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TH International stock, see the THCH Stock Forecast page.