TH International (THCH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $89.29M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 20.47K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.06
• Revenue Growth: -12.77%
• EPS Growth: 52.05%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,367
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): -0.33
• Shares Outstanding: 33,193,190
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 17,091
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 20,473
• PEG Ratio: 0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): -1.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.60
• P/FCF Ratio: -5.90
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.69
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.25
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.48
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -1.48
• 1Y Price Target: $2.50
• Price Target Upside: -7.06% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0

• Rating: 45 Neutral
• Price Target: $2.50 ▼(-7.06% Downside)

TH International's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its poor financial performance, characterized by significant net losses and insolvency risks. While technical indicators show some neutral signals, the negative valuation metrics further weigh down the score. The earnings call provided some optimism, but it is not enough to offset the financial challenges.

TH International Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

TH International Limited operates Tim Hortons coffee shops in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau. As of September 28, 2022, it had approximately 460 coffee shops across the People's Republic of China. The company was incorporated in 2018 and is based in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China. TH International Limited is a subsidiary of Tim Hortons Inc.

How the Company Makes Money

TH International makes money primarily through the sale of food and beverages at its Tim Hortons locations in China. The company generates revenue by offering a wide range of products, including coffee, donuts, pastries, sandwiches, and other fast-casual dining options. Additionally, TH International benefits from strategic partnerships and franchise agreements, which allow for expanded reach and consistent brand presence across the market. The company's earnings are influenced by factors such as store traffic, customer preferences, and the overall economic environment in the regions where it operates.

TH International Financial Statement Overview

Summary

TH International faces significant financial challenges, with consistent net losses, negative equity, and cash flow deficits. Despite revenue growth, the company's financial instability and insolvency risks necessitate urgent strategic adjustments.

Income Statement

TH International's income statement reveals significant challenges, with consistent net losses over recent years, including a net income of -$412 million in 2024. The company has not achieved profitability, as indicated by negative EBIT and EBITDA margins. Although revenue has grown from $212 million in 2020 to $1.39 billion in 2024, the net losses suggest inefficiencies and high operational costs, impacting overall financial health.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows concerning financial leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio that is undefinable due to negative stockholders' equity of -$840 million in 2024. Total liabilities exceed total assets, indicating insolvency risk. Equity has declined significantly over the years, highlighting financial instability and raising concerns about the company's long-term sustainability.

Cash Flow

The cash flow analysis indicates negative operating cash flow, with -$39 million in 2024, and persistent negative free cash flow, impacting liquidity. The company struggles to generate positive cash flow from operations, suggesting challenges in covering expenses and investing in growth opportunities. This cash flow deficit highlights the need for strategic adjustments to improve financial operations.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.34B	1.39B	1.58B	1.01B	643.37M	212.08M
Gross Profit	222.16M	213.56M	417.16M	33.05M	13.81M	6.62M
EBITDA	-222.41M	-266.19M	-686.50M	-431.72M	-302.90M	-115.22M
Net Income	-353.89M	-412.08M	-876.25M	-910.17M	-378.05M	-142.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.39B	1.56B	2.22B	2.64B	1.28B	580.36M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	155.22M	161.37M	227.00M	611.45M	390.84M	174.87M
Total Debt	1.84B	1.88B	1.87B	1.77B	522.42M	0.00
Total Liabilities	2.35B	2.40B	2.64B	2.53B	945.80M	147.31M
Stockholders Equity	-968.75M	-840.89M	-427.21M	108.85M	335.54M	428.29M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-46.02M	-142.51M	-488.53M	-621.86M	-580.28M	-290.52M
Operating Cash Flow	-46.02M	-39.67M	-196.13M	-286.93M	-244.97M	-145.77M
Investing Cash Flow	-32.73M	-8.04M	60.00M	-705.17M	-335.28M	-144.75M
Financing Cash Flow	87.89M	26.00M	80.83M	827.16M	798.00M	221.12M

TH International Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 2.69
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For THCH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.69 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.58, above the 50-day MA of 2.63, and below the 200-day MA of 2.88, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for THCH.

TH International Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BDL	71 Outperform	$56.99M	13.19	5.48%	1.82%	8.83%	41.90%
RRGB	51 Neutral	$128.95M	-2.18	67.84%	―	-3.09%	-30.16%
STKS	46 Neutral	$80.49M	-1.74	-8.10%	―	96.64%	-292.65%
THCH	45 Neutral	$89.29M	―	―	―	-12.77%	52.05%
FAT	45 Neutral	$34.93M	-0.15	39.58%	157.29%	0.96%	-57.29%
NDLS	41 Neutral	$28.99M	-0.68	649.09%	―	-1.23%	-68.38%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%

TH International Corporate Events

Tims China Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results with Positive EBITDA and Growth in Loyalty Membership

On August 26, 2025, Tims China announced its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, highlighting a 1.4% year-over-year increase in system sales to RMB409.5 million and a positive adjusted corporate EBITDA of RMB2.2 million. Despite a 4.9% decrease in total revenues from the same quarter in 2024, the company reported a significant growth in its loyalty club membership, reaching 26.2 million members, a 22.4% increase year-over-year. The company also achieved a historical high in food revenue contribution as a percentage of system sales, reflecting the success of its ‘Light & Fit Lunch Box’ platform. However, the quarter also saw a net closure of nine stores, with a decrease in revenues from company-owned stores due to underperforming store closures and a decline in same-store sales growth.

TH International Announces Board Resignation of Meizi Zhu

TH International Limited, a company based in Shanghai, China, announced the resignation of Meizi Zhu from its board of directors, effective August 7, 2025. Zhu has been recognized for her significant contributions and leadership over the past six years, which have been instrumental in the company’s growth. The company has decided not to fill her vacated position on the board at this time.

TH International Reports Q1 2025 Financial Results with Increased System Sales

On June 24, 2025, TH International Limited announced its financial results for the first quarter of 2025, revealing a 3.5% increase in system sales year-over-year to RMB376.3 million. Despite a 9.5% decrease in total revenues compared to the previous year, the company improved its store contribution margin by 5.9 percentage points. The company also reported a significant increase in its loyalty club membership by 25.7% year-over-year, reaching 25.1 million members. The strategic focus on ‘Coffee + Freshly Prepared Food’ and cost optimization measures have helped Tims China regain top-line growth and enhance profitability, positioning it for further expansion and operational efficiency improvements.