TH International (THCH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $75.13M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 7.98K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.25
• Revenue Growth: -8.52%
• EPS Growth: 49.12%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,367
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): -0.32
• Shares Outstanding: 33,243,584
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 7,038
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 7,982
• PEG Ratio: 0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): -1.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.60
• P/FCF Ratio: -5.90
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 0.00
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 41 Neutral
• Price Target: $2.00 ▼(-11.50% Downside)

The overall stock score is primarily impacted by significant financial challenges, including negative profitability, high leverage, and negative cash flows. Technical analysis also indicates a bearish trend, with the stock trading below major moving averages. Valuation concerns are evident with a negative P/E ratio and no dividend yield, further reducing the stock's attractiveness.

Positive Factors

System Sales Growth

The growth in system sales indicates strong market demand and effective expansion strategies, which can drive long-term revenue growth.

Loyalty Program Expansion

The expansion of the loyalty program enhances customer retention and engagement, supporting sustainable revenue growth and brand loyalty.

Franchise Program Expansion

The robust interest in the franchise program suggests potential for significant network expansion, which can increase market presence and revenue.

Negative Factors

Negative Profitability

Ongoing negative profitability and high leverage pose risks to financial stability, potentially limiting growth and investment capacity.

Declining Revenue Growth

The decline in revenue growth highlights challenges in maintaining market competitiveness and could impact long-term financial health.

Negative Cash Flows

Negative cash flows indicate cash burn and potential liquidity issues, which can constrain operational flexibility and investment in growth.

TH International Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

TH International (THCH) is a prominent player in the food and beverage sector, specializing in the development, operation, and franchising of fast-casual dining concepts. The company is best known for its flagship brand, which focuses on providing high-quality, innovative menu options that cater to evolving consumer tastes. THCH operates in various international markets, leveraging its expertise in brand management and restaurant operations to expand its footprint and enhance customer experiences.

How the Company Makes Money

TH International generates revenue primarily through the franchising of its restaurant brands, where franchisees pay initial franchise fees and ongoing royalties based on their sales. Additionally, the company earns income from corporate-owned restaurant locations, which contribute directly to its sales figures. Significant partnerships with suppliers and distributors also play a vital role in enhancing profitability, as they allow THCH to negotiate favorable terms and reduce costs. Furthermore, the company may benefit from promotional collaborations and marketing agreements that help drive brand awareness and customer traffic to its locations.

TH International Financial Statement Overview

Summary

TH International is facing significant financial challenges. The income statement shows declining revenues and persistent losses, with negative profit margins. The balance sheet is highly leveraged with negative equity, indicating financial distress. Although there is some improvement in cash flow management, the company still struggles with operational cash deficits.

Income Statement

TH International's income statement reveals significant challenges. The company has experienced declining revenue growth, with a negative growth rate of -1.31% in the TTM period. Profitability metrics are concerning, with a negative net profit margin of -26.37% and a negative EBIT margin of -25.59%. These figures indicate substantial losses and operational inefficiencies. The gross profit margin is relatively low at 16.56%, suggesting limited pricing power or high cost of goods sold. Overall, the income statement reflects a struggling business with declining revenues and persistent losses.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of TH International shows a precarious financial position. The company has a negative stockholders' equity, resulting in a negative debt-to-equity ratio of -1.90, indicating that liabilities exceed assets. This high leverage poses a significant risk to financial stability. The return on equity is positive at 41.67%, but this is primarily due to the negative equity base rather than operational success. The equity ratio is also negative, further highlighting the company's financial distress. Overall, the balance sheet suggests a highly leveraged company with limited financial flexibility.

Cash Flow

TH International's cash flow statement indicates some improvement, but challenges remain. The free cash flow growth rate is positive at 250.24%, suggesting better cash management compared to previous periods. However, the operating cash flow is negative, and the operating cash flow to net income ratio is -0.03, indicating that the company is not generating sufficient cash from operations to cover its losses. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.0, suggesting that all free cash flow is being used to cover net losses. Overall, while there are signs of improvement, the cash flow situation remains weak.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.34B	1.39B	1.58B	1.01B	643.37M	212.08M
Gross Profit	301.16M	213.56M	417.16M	33.05M	13.81M	6.62M
EBITDA	-188.80M	-266.19M	-686.50M	-431.72M	-297.64M	-115.22M
Net Income	-337.93M	-412.08M	-876.25M	-742.65M	-381.72M	-142.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.29B	1.56B	2.22B	2.64B	1.28B	580.36M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	131.61M	161.37M	225.72M	611.45M	395.00M	180.35M
Total Debt	1.80B	1.88B	1.87B	1.77B	522.42M	0.00
Total Liabilities	2.32B	2.40B	2.64B	2.53B	945.80M	147.31M
Stockholders Equity	-1.04B	-840.89M	-427.21M	108.85M	335.54M	428.29M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-34.74M	-142.51M	-488.53M	-621.86M	-580.28M	-290.52M
Operating Cash Flow	-34.74M	-39.67M	-196.13M	-286.93M	-244.97M	-145.77M
Investing Cash Flow	-53.75M	-8.04M	60.00M	-705.17M	-335.28M	-144.75M
Financing Cash Flow	56.59M	26.00M	80.83M	827.16M	798.00M	221.12M

TH International Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 2.26
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For THCH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.26 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.49, below the 50-day MA of 2.54, and below the 200-day MA of 2.70, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.19 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for THCH.

TH International Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RAVE	76 Outperform	$39.93M	14.51	20.05%	―	0.35%	9.25%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
STKS	42 Neutral	$58.17M	-0.51	-51.90%	―	51.57%	-367.14%
RRGB	41 Neutral	$71.68M	-1.27	―	―	-3.61%	2.06%
GENK	41 Neutral	$75.74M	-9.37	-8.89%	1.30%	9.36%	-249.08%
THCH	41 Neutral	$75.13M	-1.55	―	―	-8.52%	49.12%
FAT	39 Underperform	$9.15M	-0.03	―	695.85%	-5.26%	-44.78%

TH International Corporate Events

Tims China Reports Q3 2025 Financial Growth and Strategic Developments

On December 9, 2025, TH International Limited announced its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, reporting a 12.8% year-over-year increase in system sales to RMB419.9 million. Despite a slight decrease in total revenues by 0.4% compared to the previous year, the company experienced positive same-store sales growth of 3.3% for company-owned and operated stores. The company also saw a significant increase in registered loyalty club members, growing by 22.3% year-over-year to 27.9 million. The strategic financial restructuring, including the issuance of senior secured convertible notes, aims to bolster the development of its store network and strengthen the Tim Hortons brand in China.

TH International Completes $89.9 Million Convertible Notes Issuance

On December 2, 2025, TH International Limited announced the completion of its issuance of senior secured convertible notes due in September 2029, totaling approximately $89.9 million. This move also involved amending the company’s existing 2024 unsecured convertible notes and repurchasing all outstanding principal of its variable rate convertible senior notes due 2026. These financial maneuvers are likely to impact the company’s capital structure and provide it with greater financial flexibility, potentially strengthening its position in the competitive Chinese coffee market.

TH International Announces New Convertible Notes Issuance

On October 31, 2025, TH International Limited announced a definitive agreement for the issuance of Senior Secured Convertible Notes and amendments to its existing 2024 unsecured convertible notes. The new notes, due September 2029, amount to approximately $89.9 million and will be used partly to repurchase existing notes due 2026. The transaction, approved by the board, is expected to close in Q4 2025, pending regulatory approvals in China. This strategic financial maneuver aims to strengthen Tims China’s financial position, aligning its debt maturity and conversion terms, and potentially enhancing its market standing.