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Fat Brands Inc (FAT)
NASDAQ:FAT
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Fat Brands (FAT) AI Stock Analysis

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FAT

Fat Brands

(NASDAQ:FAT)

Rating:39Underperform
Price Target:
$1.50
▼(-20.21% Downside)
The overall stock score is heavily influenced by the company's poor financial performance and valuation, both scoring at the lowest end of the scale. Technical analysis also indicates bearish momentum, further weighing down the score. While corporate events show some strategic efforts, they do not significantly offset the financial and technical challenges.

Fat Brands (FAT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Fat Brands Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionFAT Brands Inc., a multi-brand franchising company, acquires, develops, and manages quick service, fast casual, casual dining, and polished casual dining restaurant concepts worldwide. As of August 22, 2022, it owned seventeen restaurant brands, including Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli's, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo's Cafe and Buffalo's Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean, and Ponderosa Steakhouse/Bonanza Steakhouse, as well as franchises and owns approximately 2,300 locations. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Beverly Hills, California. FAT Brands Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Fog Cutter Holdings, LLC.
How the Company Makes MoneyFat Brands generates revenue primarily through a combination of franchise fees, company-operated restaurant sales, and royalties from franchised locations. The company charges initial franchise fees and ongoing royalties based on a percentage of sales from franchisees, which provides a steady income stream. Additionally, Fat Brands earns revenue from selling products and ingredients to its franchisees. The company's growth strategy includes acquiring existing restaurant brands, which diversifies its portfolio and enhances revenue potential. Strategic partnerships with suppliers also contribute to cost savings and improved margins, further bolstering its financial performance.

Fat Brands Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
FAT Brands continues to focus on expansion and pipeline growth, with promising results in co-branding and international partnerships. However, financial performance suffered due to revenue decline, increased expenses, and strategic closures, leading to a significant net loss.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Expansion and Development Pipeline
FAT Brands has commitments for over 1,000 new locations in the pipeline, with 23 units opened in Q1 2025, a 37% increase from Q1 2024. The company aims to open over 100 new locations this year.
Co-Branding and International Growth
FAT Brands continues to expand its co-branding initiatives with new models and international partnerships, including 30 new Fatburger locations in France over the next three years and 10 Buffalo's Cafe locations.
Georgia Production Facility Performance
The Georgia production facility generated $8.8 million in first-quarter sales and $3.1 million in adjusted EBITDA, with a 35% margin. Plans to increase utilization from 40-45% to 60-70% could enhance value.
Strong Casual Dining Segment Performance
Same-store sales in the casual dining segment increased approximately 1.6%, driven by Buffalo's Cafe and Ponderosa and Bonanza locations.
Negative Updates
Decline in Total Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA
Total revenue for Q1 2025 was $142 million, a 6.5% decrease from Q1 2024. Adjusted EBITDA was $11.1 million compared to $18.2 million last year.
Smoky Bones Closure Impact
The closure of Smoky Bones locations contributed to the decline in co-owned restaurant sales, which were down about 6.2%.
Increased Litigation and Professional Fees
General and administrative expenses increased to $33 million from $30 million in the prior year, primarily due to increased professional fees related to pending litigation.
Paused Dividend Payments
FAT Brands temporarily paused its common dividend and started accruing the FAT Series B preferred dividend until a $25 million principal reduction is achieved.
Net Loss Increase
Net loss attributable to FAT Brands was $46 million or $2.73 per diluted share, compared to a net loss of $38.3 million or $2.37 per share in the prior year quarter.
Company Guidance
During the FAT Brands Inc. First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided several key metrics and strategic updates. Total revenue for the quarter was $142 million, reflecting a 6.5% decrease from $152 million in the previous year's quarter, primarily due to lower same-store sales and the closure of Smoky Bones locations for conversion into Twin Peaks lodges. System-wide sales were reported at $571.1 million, down 1.8% compared to the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $11.1 million, a decrease from $18.2 million in the prior year. The company highlighted a development pipeline with commitments for over 1,000 new locations and a target of opening over 100 new sites this year, including 23 units opened in the first quarter, marking a 37% increase from Q1 2024. Additionally, FAT Brands discussed strategic initiatives such as a $50 million dividend distribution from the spin-off of Twin Hospitality Group Inc., plans to raise between $75 million and $100 million of equity in 2025, and efforts to reduce SG&A by over $5 million annually. The company also reported a net loss of $46 million or $2.73 per diluted share, compared to a net loss of $38.3 million or $2.37 per share in the previous year.

Fat Brands Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Fat Brands faces significant financial challenges across all key areas. The income statement shows declining profitability and inconsistent revenue growth. The balance sheet highlights high leverage and negative equity, raising concerns about financial stability. Cash flow issues further underscore operational inefficiencies and weak cash generation, posing substantial risks to the company's financial health.
Income Statement
25
Negative
The income statement shows significant challenges, including negative net income and declining EBIT and EBITDA margins. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a notable drop in TTM performance. Gross profit margin has also deteriorated, indicating increased cost pressures or inefficiencies.
Balance Sheet
30
Negative
The balance sheet reveals high leverage, with a negative stockholders' equity and a problematic debt-to-equity ratio. The equity ratio is negative, suggesting insolvency risks. These factors highlight financial instability and potential liquidity issues.
Cash Flow
20
Very Negative
Cash flow analysis reflects negative operating and free cash flows, indicating poor cash generation ability. Free cash flow growth is negative, pointing towards deteriorating cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is unfavorable, highlighting operational inefficiencies.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue142.46B592.65M480.46M407.22M118.88M18.12M
Gross Profit46.04B150.42M197.57M158.58M56.67M14.29M
EBITDA-20.55M-12.82M52.30M21.51M2.41M-8.83M
Net Income-46.12B-189.85M-90.11M-126.19M-31.58M-14.86M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.27B1.29B1.39B1.21B1.27B121.14M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments41.53M23.38M37.04M28.67M56.66M3.94M
Total Debt1.57B1.47B1.38B1.12B1.01B97.92M
Total Liabilities1.77B1.74B1.64B1.37B1.29B163.03M
Stockholders Equity-493.94M-455.71M-255.86M-159.18M42.80M-41.88M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-64.28M-79.05M-57.11M-70.57M-9.74M-11.94M
Operating Cash Flow-41.06M-56.25M-35.61M-47.40M682.00K-11.48M
Investing Cash Flow-18.45M-26.47M-59.80M-12.50M-723.20M-36.58M
Financing Cash Flow23.02M58.20M118.55M28.74M815.23M55.24M

Fat Brands Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price1.88
Price Trends
50DMA
2.18
Negative
100DMA
2.35
Negative
200DMA
2.75
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.10
Negative
RSI
41.74
Neutral
STOCH
48.62
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FAT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.88 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.90, below the 50-day MA of 2.18, and below the 200-day MA of 2.75, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.62 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FAT.

Fat Brands Risk Analysis

Fat Brands disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Fat Brands reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Fat Brands Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$48.60M18.3421.75%2.93%20.81%
67
Neutral
$54.99M12.736.88%1.86%8.83%41.90%
61
Neutral
$17.99B12.87-3.56%2.97%1.27%-14.28%
55
Neutral
$110.51M92.02%-3.09%-30.16%
46
Neutral
$25.86M-33.50%2.67%-6.89%-42.75%
41
Neutral
$31.07M-978.37%-1.23%-68.38%
39
Underperform
$33.71M38.50%160.64%0.96%-57.29%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
FAT
Fat Brands
1.88
-0.82
-30.37%
ARKR
Ark Restaurants
7.05
-4.45
-38.70%
BDL
Flanigan's Enterprises
29.58
2.81
10.50%
RAVE
Rave Restaurant Group
3.42
1.64
92.13%
RRGB
Red Robin Gourmet
6.17
3.13
102.96%
NDLS
Noodles & Co
0.67
-0.66
-49.62%

Fat Brands Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Fat Brands Reappoints Andrew Wiederhorn as CEO
Neutral
Sep 4, 2025

On September 2, 2025, FAT Brands Inc. announced the reappointment of Andrew Wiederhorn as President and CEO, a role he previously held until May 2023. This leadership change is expected to impact the company’s strategic direction, with Mr. Wiederhorn’s extensive experience and previous tenure likely influencing future developments.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Fat Brands Enters Confidentiality Agreement for Refinancing
Neutral
Jul 31, 2025

On or about July 9, 2025, FAT Brands Inc. entered into a confidentiality agreement with certain holders of notes issued by its special purpose, whole business securitization financing subsidiaries. This agreement was to facilitate discussions on potential transactions involving refinancing or restructuring. The company disclosed certain confidential information as part of its public disclosure obligations, but no agreement has been reached yet, and negotiations are expected to continue.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
FAT Brands Reports Q2 2025 Revenue Decline
Negative
Jul 30, 2025

On July 30, 2025, FAT Brands reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, revealing a 3.4% decline in total revenue to $146.8 million compared to the previous year. Despite the revenue drop, the company opened 18 new locations and is on track to meet its goal of over 100 restaurant openings in 2025. The company is focusing on expanding its manufacturing capacity and has implemented financial strategies to improve cash flow, including converting bonds and reducing general and administrative expenses.

Delistings and Listing Changes
Fat Brands’ Stock Warrants Expire and Delist
Neutral
Jul 17, 2025

On July 16, 2025, FAT Brands Inc. saw the expiration of its common stock warrants (FATBW), initially issued on July 16, 2020. These warrants were delisted from the Nasdaq Stock Market LLC following their expiration. The expiration of these warrants means that any unexercised warrants will be automatically exercised via a cashless method by October 14, 2025, following the termination of the Warrant Agency Agreement.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 29, 2025