The ONE Group Hospitality Inc (STKS)
NASDAQ:STKS
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The ONE Group Hospitality
(NASDAQ:STKS)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$2.00
▲(14.29% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/20/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (rising leverage with negative equity, worsening net losses, and persistent negative free cash flow) and a bearish technical setup. Offsetting factors include a mixed-but-improving strategic narrative from the earnings call and positive corporate updates around asset-light expansion and reduced capex, though valuation support is limited due to losses and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Asset-light expansion and franchise deals
A large asset-light development deal materially shifts the growth model toward franchising and rights sales, reducing capital intensity and enabling faster footprint expansion. Over months this supports higher ROIC potential and lowers ongoing capex burdens versus company-owned builds.
Negative Factors
High leverage and weak balance sheet
Significant leverage constrains financial flexibility, increases interest expense sensitivity, and raises refinancing risk during downturns. Over a multi-month horizon, high debt levels limit the firm's ability to pursue opportunistic investments or absorb operational shocks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Asset-light expansion and franchise deals
A large asset-light development deal materially shifts the growth model toward franchising and rights sales, reducing capital intensity and enabling faster footprint expansion. Over months this supports higher ROIC potential and lowers ongoing capex burdens versus company-owned builds.
Read all positive factors
The ONE Group Hospitality (STKS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$54.68M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)38.55K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.43
Revenue Growth51.57%
EPS Growth-367.14%
CountryUS
Employees10,800
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.18
Shares Outstanding31,245,373
10 Day Avg. Volume37,274
30 Day Avg. Volume38,552
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)-0.73
Price to Sales (P/S)0.07
P/FCF Ratio-2.04
Enterprise Value/Market Cap12.82
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.87
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.98
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.19
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.67Price Target Upside166.86% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.26
Revenue Forecast (FY)$844.63M
The ONE Group Hospitality Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc., a hospitality company, develops, owns, operates, manages, and licenses restaurants and lounges worldwide. It operates through STK, Kona Grill, and ONE Hospitality segments. The company also provides turn-key food a...
How the Company Makes Money
The company makes money primarily by operating full-service restaurants and lounges. Its core revenue stream is food and beverage sales to guests dining on-premise (including premium steakhouse offerings, cocktails, wine, and other beverages). Add...
The ONE Group Hospitality Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 06, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed picture, with significant growth in loyalty programs, successful restaurant redesigns, and franchise expansion contrasted by declines in revenue, comparable sales, and increased net losses. The company is optimistic about the future with strong holiday bookings and strategic initiatives in place.Positive Updates
Loyalty Program Growth
The Friends with Benefits loyalty program reached over 6.5 million members, with 200,000 new members added during the quarter, showing high repeat participation.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline
Total consolidated GAAP revenues decreased by 7.1% from the same quarter last year, with company-owned restaurants' net revenue down 6.9%.
Read all updates
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Loyalty Program Growth
The Friends with Benefits loyalty program reached over 6.5 million members, with 200,000 new members added during the quarter, showing high repeat participation.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the call, several key metrics were provided, offering insights into the company's performance and strategic initiatives. The Friends with Benefits loyalty program has gained traction, reaching over 6.5 million members, with 200,000 new members added during the quarter. The company also reported a successful restaurant opening in San Mateo, California, which became the top-performing location in Benihana's history, indicating the effectiveness of their redesigned restaurant format. Financially, the company reported total consolidated GAAP revenues of $180.2 million, a decrease of 7.1% from the previous year, largely due to a 5.9% reduction in consolidated comparable sales and the closure of underperforming restaurants. Operating loss was $7.9 million, impacted by a $3.4 million noncash loss on impairment. Looking forward, the company projects total GAAP revenues between $820 million and $825 million for fiscal year 2025, with plans to open 5 to 7 new venues. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $95 million and $100 million, while total capital expenditures are anticipated to range from $45 million to $50 million.The ONE Group Hospitality Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
20
Very Negative
Cash Flow
32
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 805.72M | 673.34M | 332.77M | 316.64M | 277.18M |
| Gross Profit | 95.88M | 122.75M | 65.79M | 66.58M | 65.18M |
| EBITDA | 86.95M | 40.72M | 34.02M | 28.44M | 38.57M |
| Net Income | -92.24M | -15.82M | 4.72M | 13.53M | 31.35M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 884.20M | 959.35M | 317.25M | 291.02M | 229.84M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.67M | 27.58M | 21.05M | 55.12M | 23.61M |
| Total Debt | 651.10M | 641.02M | 199.29M | 183.63M | 132.64M |
| Total Liabilities | 772.72M | 756.75M | 249.88M | 222.43M | 169.31M |
| Stockholders Equity | -75.84M | 205.25M | 69.18M | 69.71M | 61.43M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -27.28M | -27.37M | -22.77M | -7.38M | 19.50M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 30.31M | 44.19M | 30.78M | 25.25M | 30.97M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -57.59M | -441.39M | -53.55M | -32.63M | -11.47M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 3.87M | 404.34M | -11.25M | 39.10M | -20.27M |
The ONE Group Hospitality Technical Analysis
Negative
1.75
Price Trends
2.06
Negative
1.99
Negative
2.55
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.07
Negative
42.90
Neutral
44.76
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STKS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.75 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.88, below the 50-day MA of 2.06, and below the 200-day MA of 2.55, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for STKS.
The ONE Group Hospitality Risk Analysis
The ONE Group Hospitality disclosed 30 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. The ONE Group Hospitality reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
The ONE Group Hospitality Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $57.62M | 17.07 | 8.92% | 1.89% | 8.99% | 49.97% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
50 Neutral | $24.88M | 6.41 | -29.84% | ― | -9.70% | -194.23% | |
49 Neutral | $54.17M | -1.19 | 203.92% | ― | -0.35% | -37.02% | |
47 Neutral | $54.68M | -0.60 | -51.90% | ― | 51.57% | -367.14% | |
44 Neutral | $47.90M | -3.16 | 25.76% | ― | -3.61% | 2.06% | |
43 Neutral | $66.82M | -2.06 | 36.11% | ― | -8.52% | 49.12% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
STKS
The ONE Group Hospitality
1.75
-1.24
-41.47%
ARKR
Ark Restaurants
6.90
-3.20
-31.68%
BDL
Flanigan's Enterprises
31.00
6.71
27.60%
RRGB
Red Robin Gourmet
2.65
-0.91
-25.56%
NDLS
Noodles & Co
9.20
0.48
5.50%
THCH
TH International
2.01
-0.92
-31.40%
The ONE Group Hospitality Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
The ONE Group to Present at Sidoti Investor Conference
Positive
Mar 19, 2026
The ONE Group Hospitality announced it would present at Sidoti’s Small-Cap Virtual Investor Conference on March 19, 2026, with its presentation scheduled to begin at 2:30 p.m. Eastern Time and accessible through the Investor Relations sectio...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
The ONE Group Announces Strong 2025 Growth and Expansion Plans
Positive
Jan 12, 2026
On January 12, 2026, The ONE Group reported preliminary 2025 results indicating full-year GAAP revenue of about $805 million, up 20% from 2024 largely due to its May 2024 acquisition of Benihana, even as comparable sales are expected to fall 3.7%....
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
The ONE Group Hospitality unveils major asset-light expansion
Positive
Dec 29, 2025
On December 23, 2025, The ONE Group Hospitality extended CEO Emanuel “Manny” Hilario’s employment agreement by four years to September 2, 2031, awarded him a $1 million one-time bonus subject to multi-year clawback provisions, an...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.