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The ONE Group Hospitality
(NASDAQ:STKS)
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Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
$1.50
▼(-17.13% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial quality (large net losses, negative free cash flow, and high leverage) and bearish technicals (trading below key moving averages with negative momentum). Earnings-call commentary provides partial support via margin improvement, stronger operating cash flow, and EBITDA guidance, but near-term revenue/EBITDA softness and ongoing net losses keep the overall rating below average.
Positive Factors
Revenue growth and scale
A ~21% TTM revenue increase and ~20% growth in 2025 reflect a meaningful step-up in scale that supports fixed-cost absorption and brand leverage. Sustained top-line expansion enhances the firm's ability to drive unit economics and provides a foundation for multi-quarter margin recovery if execution holds.
Negative Factors
High leverage and weak equity base
Elevated debt relative to a small equity base increases financial vulnerability to operational setbacks. High leverage amplifies earnings volatility, raises interest servicing needs (guidance shows meaningful net interest expense), and constrains capital allocation and growth optionality absent sustained margin improvement.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue growth and scale
A ~21% TTM revenue increase and ~20% growth in 2025 reflect a meaningful step-up in scale that supports fixed-cost absorption and brand leverage. Sustained top-line expansion enhances the firm's ability to drive unit economics and provides a foundation for multi-quarter margin recovery if execution holds.
Read all positive factors
The ONE Group Hospitality (STKS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$56.18M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)38.55K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.48
Revenue Growth0.99%
EPS Growth-217.64%
CountryUS
Employees9,500
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-4.03
Shares Outstanding31,564,300
10 Day Avg. Volume37,274
30 Day Avg. Volume38,552
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.48
Price to Sales (P/S)0.07
P/FCF Ratio-2.04
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.00Price Target Upside176.24% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.15
Revenue Forecast (FY)$825.91M
The ONE Group Hospitality Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. is a global hospitality firm primarily involved in the development, ownership, operation, management, and licensing of restaurants and lounges. The company conducts its business through its distinct STK, Kona Grill,...
How the Company Makes Money
The ONE Group makes money primarily by operating restaurants, generating revenue from food and beverage sales to guests (dine-in and, where offered, related on-premise dining occasions such as private events). A secondary source of revenue can com...
The ONE Group Hospitality Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented meaningful operational and financial progress: stronger cash generation (nearly tripled operating cash flow YTD), improved restaurant-level margins, sustained cost-of-sales improvement, positive comparable transactions across all segments, and a disciplined shift toward capital-efficient, asset-light growth (including a promising Benihana Express prototype). Offsetting these positives were a modest revenue decline (~3.3%), a ~9.7% decrease in adjusted EBITDA driven by higher marketing and G&A investments, continued net losses to common shareholders, and temporary headwinds from the World Cup, extreme weather and a delayed NYC relocation. Overall, management emphasized execution, liquidity improvement, and a conservative growth posture.Positive Updates
Strong Cash Generation and Debt Paydown
Operating cash flow for the first six months of 2026 nearly tripled year-over-year to approximately $32-$33 million (from $11 million), enabling repayment of over $6 million of debt year-to-date ($4M term loan, $2M revolver) and improved liquidity with $28.7 million available under the revolving facility.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline Year-Over-Year
Total consolidated GAAP revenues decreased ~3.3% to $200–201 million (from $207 million prior year). Management attributes much of the decline to planned portfolio optimization and the delayed relocation of STK Downtown NYC, but top-line pressure remains a near-term headwind.
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Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Cash Generation and Debt Paydown
Operating cash flow for the first six months of 2026 nearly tripled year-over-year to approximately $32-$33 million (from $11 million), enabling repayment of over $6 million of debt year-to-date ($4M term loan, $2M revolver) and improved liquidity with $28.7 million available under the revolving facility.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management provided Q3 and full‑year 2026 targets: for Q3 they expect GAAP revenue of $176–$180M, consolidated comparable sales of 0%–2%, managed/franchise/license revenue of ~ $3M, company‑owned operating expenses of 85%–87% of company‑owned restaurant net revenue, adjusted G&A (ex‑stock comp) of about $12.5M, adjusted EBITDA of $12–$15M, and preopening expense of $1–$2M (noting Q3 historically represents ~10%–15% of full‑year contribution). For FY2026 they guide GAAP revenue of $805–$820M with comparable sales of 1%–2%, managed/franchise/license revenue of ~ $14M, company‑owned operating expenses ≈82% of company‑owned restaurant net revenue, adjusted G&A (ex‑stock comp) ≈ $50M, adjusted EBITDA $95–$105M, preopening $6.5–$7.5M, net interest expense $38–$39M, an effective tax rate of ~10%–20%, total capex (net of landlord allowances) $30M, and plans to open 6–10 new venues.The ONE Group Hospitality Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 807.41M | 805.72M | 673.34M | 332.77M | 316.64M | 277.18M |
| Gross Profit | 110.85M | 95.88M | 122.75M | 65.79M | 66.58M | 65.18M |
| EBITDA | 54.47M | 51.19M | 40.72M | 34.02M | 26.33M | 38.57M |
| Net Income | -90.01M | -92.24M | -15.82M | 4.72M | 13.53M | 31.35M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 877.21M | 884.20M | 959.35M | 317.25M | 291.02M | 229.84M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.62M | 4.17M | 27.58M | 21.05M | 55.12M | 23.61M |
| Total Debt | 644.12M | 651.10M | 641.02M | 199.29M | 183.63M | 132.64M |
| Total Liabilities | 761.84M | 772.72M | 756.75M | 249.88M | 222.43M | 169.31M |
| Stockholders Equity | 119.57M | 115.47M | 205.25M | 69.18M | 69.71M | 61.43M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -9.73M | -27.28M | -27.37M | -22.77M | -7.38M | 19.50M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 43.44M | 30.31M | 44.19M | 30.78M | 25.25M | 30.97M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -53.36M | -57.59M | -441.39M | -53.55M | -32.63M | -11.47M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -5.36M | 3.87M | 404.34M | -11.25M | 39.10M | -20.27M |
The ONE Group Hospitality Technical Analysis
Negative
1.81
Price Trends
1.87
Negative
1.84
Negative
1.95
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.05
Positive
37.52
Neutral
18.28
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STKS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.81 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.81, below the 50-day MA of 1.87, and below the 200-day MA of 1.95, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.28 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for STKS.
The ONE Group Hospitality Risk Analysis
The ONE Group Hospitality disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. The ONE Group Hospitality reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
The ONE Group Hospitality Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $77.58M | 13.00 | 9.04% | 1.89% | 5.74% | 47.36% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $111.10M | -4.64 | 50.91% | ― | 0.19% | 46.85% | |
52 Neutral | $145.04M | -5.26 | 27.56% | ― | -4.49% | 64.71% | |
47 Neutral | $54.14M | -0.77 | 42.17% | ― | -5.08% | -26.11% | |
46 Neutral | $56.18M | -0.44 | -76.61% | ― | 0.99% | -217.64% | |
42 Neutral | $20.83M | -3.39 | -18.91% | ― | -11.28% | 36.59% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
STKS
The ONE Group Hospitality
1.68
-1.04
-38.24%
ARKR
Ark Restaurants
5.61
-1.40
-19.93%
BDL
Flanigan's Enterprises
46.12
14.92
47.82%
RRGB
Red Robin Gourmet
8.20
2.31
39.22%
NDLS
Noodles & Co
17.95
10.35
136.18%
THCH
TH International
1.77
-0.92
-34.20%
The ONE Group Hospitality Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
ONE Group Shareholders Approve Directors and Compensation Plans
Positive
May 19, 2026
At its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on May 19, 2026, The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. reported that shareholders elected three Class I directors, Dimitrios Angelis, James Chambers and Michael Serruya, to three-year terms ending at the 2...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.