The ONE Group Hospitality (STKS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $67.19M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 38.55K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.43
• Revenue Growth: 51.57%
• EPS Growth: -367.14%
• Country: US
• Employees: 10,800
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): -0.51
• Shares Outstanding: 31,104,780
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 37,274
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 38,552
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.44
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.13
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.30
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 10.48
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.86
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.41
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.88
• 1Y Price Target: $4.67
• Price Target Upside: 116.20% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 48 Neutral
• Price Target: $2.50 ▲(15.74% Upside)

The score is primarily constrained by weak financial performance—loss-making profitability, high leverage, and negative free cash flow. Technicals are supportive with price strength and positive MACD, but an overbought RSI raises pullback risk. Valuation is limited by negative earnings, while management commentary and corporate updates point to asset-light growth and cost/capex discipline, partially offset by near-term sales softness.

Positive Factors

Asset-light expansion and franchise deals

A large asset-light development deal materially shifts the growth model toward franchising and rights sales, reducing capital intensity and enabling faster footprint expansion. Over months this supports higher ROIC potential and lowers ongoing capex burdens versus company-owned builds.

Large, growing loyalty program

A 6.5M-member loyalty base provides a durable, data-driven channel for repeat visits, targeted marketing and yield improvement. Sustained membership growth supports higher frequency, better customer LTV and more predictable demand across quarters and seasons.

Operational margin improvement

Incremental improvement in EBIT/EBITDA margins indicates that cost controls and operational initiatives are taking hold. If sustained, modest margin expansion can compound through higher cash generation and fund further asset-light growth or debt reduction over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

High leverage and weak balance sheet

Significant leverage constrains financial flexibility, increases interest expense sensitivity, and raises refinancing risk during downturns. Over a multi-month horizon, high debt levels limit the firm's ability to pursue opportunistic investments or absorb operational shocks.

Negative free cash flow

Persistent negative free cash flow restricts the company’s ability to pay down debt, fund conversions, or invest in growth without external financing. This structural cash shortfall increases reliance on capital markets and hampers long-term balance sheet repair.

Worsening net losses and impairments

A sharp increase in net loss, driven by impairments and valuation adjustments, signals recurring profitability challenges and potential asset write-downs. Such losses erode equity, reduce investor flexibility, and can necessitate further cost cuts or asset disposals over the medium term.

The ONE Group Hospitality Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc., a hospitality company, develops, owns, operates, manages, and licenses restaurants and lounges worldwide. It operates through STK, Kona Grill, and ONE Hospitality segments. The company also provides turn-key food and beverage services for hospitality venues, including hotels, casinos, and other locations. Its hospitality food and beverage solutions include developing, managing, and operating restaurants, bars, rooftops, pools, banqueting, catering, private dining rooms, room service, and mini bars; and offers hospitality advisory and consulting services. The company operates restaurants primarily under the STK and Kona Grill brands. As of December 31, 2021, it owned, operated, managed, or licensed 60 venues, including 23 STKs and 24 Kona Grills in North America, Europe, and the Middle East, as well as 13 F&B venues in seven hotels and casinos in the United States and Europe. The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

The ONE Group makes money through multiple revenue streams, primarily by operating its restaurant brands, especially STK, which generates income through food and beverage sales. The company also earns revenue from management and consulting services provided to third-party restaurants and hospitality venues. Additionally, The ONE Group engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations that enhance its brand visibility and market reach, contributing to its overall earnings. Key factors influencing revenue include the company's ability to attract customers through marketing initiatives, seasonal promotions, and its reputation for quality, which helps drive sales in its establishments.

The ONE Group Hospitality Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement trends show volatile and recently declining revenue, weakening gross margins, and negative net margins. The balance sheet is a key drag with high leverage, a low equity ratio, and negative ROE in the TTM. Cash flow is mixed: operating cash flow is positive, but free cash flow is negative, limiting flexibility.

Income Statement

The ONE Group Hospitality's revenue has shown volatility, with a recent decline in TTM. Gross profit margins have decreased over time, and the company is currently experiencing negative net profit margins, indicating challenges in profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are modest but have improved slightly in the TTM, suggesting some operational efficiency gains.

Balance Sheet

The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage, which poses a financial risk. Return on equity has turned negative in the TTM, reflecting challenges in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is low, suggesting limited financial stability.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains positive, but free cash flow is negative, indicating cash constraints. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is reasonable, but the free cash flow to net income ratio is concerning. The company has not shown significant growth in free cash flow, which could impact future investments.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	820.59M	673.34M	332.77M	316.64M	277.18M	141.94M
Gross Profit	130.17M	122.75M	65.79M	66.58M	65.18M	20.88M
EBITDA	79.30M	40.72M	34.02M	28.44M	38.57M	6.97M
Net Income	-83.81M	-15.82M	4.72M	13.53M	31.35M	-12.82M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	879.53M	959.35M	317.25M	291.02M	229.84M	215.57M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.55M	27.58M	21.05M	55.12M	23.61M	24.39M
Total Debt	642.22M	641.02M	199.29M	183.63M	132.64M	159.09M
Total Liabilities	762.64M	756.75M	249.88M	222.43M	169.31M	193.59M
Stockholders Equity	120.88M	205.25M	69.18M	69.71M	61.43M	23.18M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-26.22M	-27.37M	-22.77M	-7.38M	19.50M	-5.36M
Operating Cash Flow	35.74M	44.19M	30.78M	25.25M	30.97M	431.00K
Investing Cash Flow	-61.96M	-441.39M	-53.55M	-32.63M	-11.47M	-5.79M
Financing Cash Flow	3.59M	404.34M	-11.25M	39.10M	-20.27M	17.42M

The ONE Group Hospitality Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 2.16
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STKS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.16 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.22, above the 50-day MA of 2.02, and below the 200-day MA of 2.83, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.54 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for STKS.

The ONE Group Hospitality Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BDL	62 Neutral	$60.45M	12.01	7.97%	1.89%	8.99%	49.97%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
STKS	48 Neutral	$67.19M	-0.58	-51.90%	―	51.57%	-367.14%
NDLS	44 Neutral	$30.92M	-0.67	―	―	-0.35%	-37.02%
THCH	43 Neutral	$66.82M	-1.39	―	―	-8.52%	49.12%
RRGB	41 Neutral	$67.01M	-1.16	―	―	-3.61%	2.06%
ARKR	40 Underperform	$23.66M	-2.06	-29.84%	―	-9.70%	-194.23%

The ONE Group Hospitality Corporate Events

The ONE Group Announces Strong 2025 Growth and Expansion Plans

On January 12, 2026, The ONE Group reported preliminary 2025 results indicating full-year GAAP revenue of about $805 million, up 20% from 2024 largely due to its May 2024 acquisition of Benihana, even as comparable sales are expected to fall 3.7%. Fourth-quarter 2025 revenue is projected at roughly $207 million, down 6.8% year over year, driven by planned RA Sushi and Kona Grill closures, the shift to a new 4-13-week fiscal calendar that removed New Year’s Eve from the quarter, and the resulting timing effects; STK is expected to post its first positive comparable sales quarter since 2023, Benihana is seen flat, and consolidated comparable sales improved sequentially by about four points. During 2025 the company opened multiple Benihana and STK locations, including a converted RA Sushi in Scottsdale, and in December 2025 it signed its largest asset-light development deal to date, securing rights for ten Benihana or Benihana Express units in the Greater San Francisco Bay Area while also expanding high-margin concessions in stadiums such as Phoenix’s Mortgage Matchup Center and UBS Arena in New York. Looking ahead to 2026, management plans to conserve cash and prioritize capital-efficient growth by sharply reducing discretionary capex, focusing new company-owned units on lower-cost builds, working through an existing lease pipeline, and converting up to nine additional Kona Grill and RA Sushi sites into Benihana or STK formats by the end of 2026, which are expected to be EBITDA-accretive and support a stronger balance sheet and more flexible growth profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (STKS) stock is a Buy with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on The ONE Group Hospitality stock, see the STKS Stock Forecast page.

The ONE Group Hospitality unveils major asset-light expansion

On December 23, 2025, The ONE Group Hospitality extended CEO Emanuel “Manny” Hilario’s employment agreement by four years to September 2, 2031, awarded him a $1 million one-time bonus subject to multi-year clawback provisions, and increased both his target annual bonus and long-term incentive grants to 200% of base salary, moves that further align executive pay with performance and continuity as the company pursues its growth strategy. In a December 29, 2025 development update, the company detailed its largest-ever asset-light deal, securing rights for ten Benihana and Benihana Express restaurants in the Greater San Francisco Bay Area, renewed and expanded high-margin concession partnerships at major sports arenas in Phoenix and New York, reported strong early performance from two new capital-efficient STK openings in Scottsdale and Oak Brook, launched Benihana-branded Teriyaki Flavored Crispy Chicken Chips with Flock Foods to extend the brand into retail snacking, and outlined a 2026 plan centered on reduced discretionary capex, focusing new company-owned builds on low-cost second-generation units, working through an existing lease pipeline, and converting up to nine Kona Grill and RA Sushi sites to Benihana or STK formats to drive EBITDA-accretive, asset-light growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (STKS) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on The ONE Group Hospitality stock, see the STKS Stock Forecast page.

The ONE Group Hospitality Updates Investor Presentation

The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. announced its participation in investor conferences scheduled for December. The company has also updated its investor presentation, which is now accessible on its website, potentially impacting investor relations and stakeholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (STKS) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on The ONE Group Hospitality stock, see the STKS Stock Forecast page.