The ONE Group Hospitality Inc (STKS)
NASDAQ:STKS
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The ONE Group Hospitality
(NASDAQ:STKS)
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Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$2.00
▲(14.29% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/20/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial quality—large net losses, negative free cash flow, and high leverage—despite strong revenue growth and positive operating cash flow. Earnings-call commentary and guidance point to improving margins/EBITDA and better cash generation, while technicals are only moderately constructive and valuation is supportive but not decisive given balance-sheet and profitability risk.
Positive Factors
Strong revenue growth
A sustained ~20% annual revenue expansion increases scale and improves the potential payoff from fixed-cost leverage in full‑service restaurants. Larger revenues support unit economics, conversion pipeline returns, and provide a firmer base for margin recovery and debt servicing over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
High leverage
A debt load roughly 2.7x equity materially heightens refinancing and interest‑rate sensitivity. With limited equity cushion, any slowdown in margin recovery or cash conversion could force asset sales, equity raises or constrained growth, increasing structural financial risk over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong revenue growth
A sustained ~20% annual revenue expansion increases scale and improves the potential payoff from fixed-cost leverage in full‑service restaurants. Larger revenues support unit economics, conversion pipeline returns, and provide a firmer base for margin recovery and debt servicing over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
The ONE Group Hospitality (STKS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$59.97M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)38.55K
Price to Earnings (P/E)4.3
Beta (1Y)1.37
Revenue Growth0.99%
EPS Growth-217.64%
CountryUS
Employees10,800
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-4.03
Shares Outstanding31,564,300
10 Day Avg. Volume37,274
30 Day Avg. Volume38,552
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.48
Price to Sales (P/S)0.07
P/FCF Ratio-2.04
Enterprise Value/Market Cap11.63
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.86
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.29
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.83
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.50Price Target Upside157.14% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.33
Revenue Forecast (FY)$841.85M
The ONE Group Hospitality Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc., a hospitality company, develops, owns, operates, manages, and licenses restaurants and lounges worldwide. It operates through STK, Kona Grill, and ONE Hospitality segments. The company also provides turn-key food a...
How the Company Makes Money
The company makes money primarily by operating full-service restaurants and lounges. Its core revenue stream is food and beverage sales to guests dining on-premise (including premium steakhouse offerings, cocktails, wine, and other beverages). Add...
The ONE Group Hospitality Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational execution that drove margin expansion, adjusted EBITDA growth (+12.1%), improved restaurant-level profitability, cash flow generation ($22M) and disciplined capital allocation (capex down 22%). Management highlighted tangible wins — contract beef pricing, loyalty program momentum, successful conversions (Scottsdale example with ~4x ROI) and positive early Q2 sales trends (record Valentine’s Day, strong Easter). Offsetting these positives were flat consolidated comps (-0.3%), a 4.9% decline at growth concepts, localized softness (mall STKs, Texas/Dallas), continued net loss to common shareholders (-$6.2M), modest cash on hand ($6.6M), elevated G&A/one-time expenses and meaningful interest costs. Overall, the operational improvements and margin gains appear to materially outweigh the challenges, and management’s balance-sheet focus and conversion pipeline position the company for continued improvement.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Total consolidated GAAP revenues increased 0.8% year-over-year to $212.8 million (from $211.1 million), helped by a fiscal calendar shift (New Year's Eve moved into FY2026) and contributions from new openings/conversions.
Negative Updates
Consolidated Comparable Sales Flat to Slight Decline
Consolidated comparable sales were relatively flat at -0.3% for the quarter, indicating only modest traffic recovery despite other operational gains.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Total consolidated GAAP revenues increased 0.8% year-over-year to $212.8 million (from $211.1 million), helped by a fiscal calendar shift (New Year's Eve moved into FY2026) and contributions from new openings/conversions.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated full-year fiscal‑2026 guidance and gave near‑term targets: for the year they expect total GAAP revenues of $840–$850M, consolidated comparable sales +1% to +3%, management/license/franchise/incentive fees $14–$15M, company‑owned operating expenses ~82%–83% of owned net revenue, G&A ex‑stock compensation ≈$53M, adjusted EBITDA $100–$110M, restaurant preopening expense $5–$6M, an effective tax rate of ~10%–20%, total capital expenditures (net) $38–$42M, and 6–10 new openings (targeting sites with ≤ $1.5M net build‑out). Near‑term quarterly targets include consolidated comps +1% to +2%, management fees $3–$4M, company‑owned operating expenses 81%–82%, G&A ex‑SBC $13–$14M, adjusted EBITDA $24–$26M, and preopening expense $1–$2M.The ONE Group Hospitality Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 807.41M | 805.72M | 673.34M | 332.77M | 316.64M | 277.18M |
| Gross Profit | 110.85M | 95.88M | 122.75M | 65.79M | 66.58M | 65.18M |
| EBITDA | 70.94M | 86.95M | 40.72M | 34.02M | 28.44M | 38.57M |
| Net Income | -90.01M | -92.24M | -15.82M | 4.72M | 13.53M | 31.35M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 877.21M | 884.20M | 959.35M | 317.25M | 291.02M | 229.84M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.62M | 4.17M | 27.58M | 21.05M | 55.12M | 23.61M |
| Total Debt | 644.12M | 651.10M | 641.02M | 199.29M | 183.63M | 132.64M |
| Total Liabilities | 761.84M | 772.72M | 756.75M | 249.88M | 222.43M | 169.31M |
| Stockholders Equity | 119.57M | 115.47M | 205.25M | 69.18M | 69.71M | 61.43M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -9.73M | -27.28M | -27.37M | -22.77M | -7.38M | 19.50M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 43.44M | 30.31M | 44.19M | 30.78M | 25.25M | 30.97M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -53.36M | -57.59M | -441.39M | -53.55M | -32.63M | -11.47M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -5.36M | 3.87M | 404.34M | -11.25M | 39.10M | -20.27M |
The ONE Group Hospitality Technical Analysis
Negative
1.75
Price Trends
1.81
Positive
1.96
Negative
2.16
Negative
Market Momentum
0.03
Negative
52.21
Neutral
22.99
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STKS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.75 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.86, below the 50-day MA of 1.81, and below the 200-day MA of 2.16, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.99 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for STKS.
The ONE Group Hospitality Risk Analysis
The ONE Group Hospitality disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. The ONE Group Hospitality reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
The ONE Group Hospitality Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
62 Neutral | $61.24M | 5.01 | 8.92% | 1.89% | 5.74% | 47.36% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
57 Neutral | $65.87M | -3.67 | 90.61% | ― | -0.12% | 7.25% | |
51 Neutral | $59.97M | 4.35 | -65.14% | ― | 0.99% | -217.64% | |
45 Neutral | $65.16M | -1.34 | 36.11% | ― | -6.26% | 9.00% | |
44 Neutral | $84.17M | ― | 27.56% | ― | -4.49% | 64.71% | |
43 Neutral | $24.09M | -3.44 | -29.84% | ― | -11.28% | 36.59% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
STKS
The ONE Group Hospitality
1.90
-1.73
-47.66%
ARKR
Ark Restaurants
6.68
-5.26
-44.05%
BDL
Flanigan's Enterprises
32.95
5.75
21.12%
RRGB
Red Robin Gourmet
4.55
1.49
48.69%
NDLS
Noodles & Co
11.18
5.03
81.79%
THCH
TH International
1.96
-0.72
-26.87%
The ONE Group Hospitality Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
ONE Group Shareholders Approve Directors and Compensation Plans
Positive
May 19, 2026
At its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on May 19, 2026, The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. reported that shareholders elected three Class I directors, Dimitrios Angelis, James Chambers and Michael Serruya, to three-year terms ending at the 2...
Business Operations and Strategy
The ONE Group to Present at Sidoti Investor Conference
Positive
Mar 19, 2026
The ONE Group Hospitality announced it would present at Sidoti’s Small-Cap Virtual Investor Conference on March 19, 2026, with its presentation scheduled to begin at 2:30 p.m. Eastern Time and accessible through the Investor Relations sectio...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.