Red Robin Gourmet (RRGB)
NASDAQ:RRGB
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Red Robin Gourmet
(NASDAQ:RRGB)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$4.00
▲(1.27% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/16/26
The score is held down primarily by a stressed capital structure (negative equity and substantial debt) and persistent net losses despite recent operational improvement. Technicals show modest near-term stabilization, while guidance points to continued margin/EBITDA progress, but traffic softness, inflation pressures, and limited liquidity keep risk elevated.
Positive Factors
Improved cash generation
A swing to positive free cash flow and a meaningful increase in operating cash flow indicate the business can fund some capex and operations internally. That durable improvement reduces immediate reliance on external funding and supports debt reduction or targeted reinvestment over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Weak balance sheet
Negative equity and elevated debt create persistent leverage and refinancing risk, reducing financial flexibility. This structural weakness makes the company sensitive to interest-rate moves and external shocks, constraining strategic options and increasing the probability that asset sales or dilutive financing will be needed.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved cash generation
A swing to positive free cash flow and a meaningful increase in operating cash flow indicate the business can fund some capex and operations internally. That durable improvement reduces immediate reliance on external funding and supports debt reduction or targeted reinvestment over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Red Robin Gourmet Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Restaurant Count
Tracks the total number of restaurants, reflecting the company’s scale and market presence. Growth in this number can signal expansion and increased market share.
Tracks the total number of restaurants, reflecting the company’s scale and market presence. Growth in this number can signal expansion and increased market share.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyRed Robin Gourmet (RRGB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$68.37M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)336.85K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.15
Revenue Growth-3.07%
EPS Growth73.53%
CountryUS
Employees21,443
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.30
Shares Outstanding18,135,330
10 Day Avg. Volume287,353
30 Day Avg. Volume336,848
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.04
Price to Book (P/B)-0.69
Price to Sales (P/S)0.06
P/FCF Ratio11.80
Enterprise Value/Market Cap8.23
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.46
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.74
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.41
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.17Price Target Upside182.70% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.32
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.15B
Red Robin Gourmet Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, operates, and franchises full-service and casual-dining restaurants. The company's restaurants primarily offer burgers and shareable pizzas; various appetizers, salads, sou...
How the Company Makes Money
Red Robin primarily makes money by selling food and beverages to guests through its company-owned restaurants. Revenue is generated per transaction from menu item purchases (e.g., burgers and other entrées, sides, appetizers, desserts) and beverag...
Red Robin Gourmet Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed clear operational and financial progress—material adjusted EBITDA growth (53%), margin expansion, labor efficiencies, targeted marketing gains, menu enhancements and cost reductions—combined with constructive 2026 guidance. However, challenges remain: comparable sales and traffic declines, commodity/beef inflation, weather-driven disruption, elevated selling expense to fuel marketing, and modest cash balances. On balance, the positive improvements in profitability, efficiency and strategic execution outweigh the near-term top-line and external headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Adjusted EBITDA and Profitability Gains
Full-year adjusted EBITDA of $69.7 million, representing 53% growth versus 2024; fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $11.8 million, which was ahead of expectations.
Negative Updates
Comparable Sales and Traffic Declines
Full-year comparable sales down 0.3% (ex-deferred loyalty). Q4 comparable sales down 3.3% excl. deferred loyalty (down 3.1% incl. deferred). Q4 average check +0.3% but traffic declined 3.6%; full-year average check +3.5% offset by traffic -3.8%.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Adjusted EBITDA and Profitability Gains
Full-year adjusted EBITDA of $69.7 million, representing 53% growth versus 2024; fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $11.8 million, which was ahead of expectations.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided 2026 comparable restaurant revenues (ex‑deferred loyalty) of +0.5% to +1.5%, with a full‑year menu pricing carry of roughly 3.2%, restaurant‑level operating profit margin of about 13%, adjusted EBITDA of $70–$73 million, and capital expenditures of $25–$30 million; management also said selling expense will be up versus 2025 (and likely up each quarter), G&A (ex‑stock‑based comp) is targeted at roughly $65–$67 million, commodity inflation was ~4% in 2025 and is expected to be roughly similar in 2026 with beef as the primary pressure, Q1 quarter‑to‑date comps were down ~1% with weather estimated to cost ~50 basis points (about 179 lost operating days) in Q1, and liquidity at year‑end included $19.9 million cash, $9.6 million restricted cash and $37 million of revolver capacity.Red Robin Gourmet Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
22
Negative
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.21B | 1.25B | 1.30B | 1.27B | 1.16B |
| Gross Profit | 822.38M | 852.81M | 417.79M | 419.59M | 394.36M |
| EBITDA | 54.05M | 5.38M | 71.83M | 18.75M | 47.02M |
| Net Income | -23.28M | -77.54M | -21.23M | -78.88M | -50.44M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 563.53M | 641.31M | 741.93M | 832.14M | 929.00M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 19.92M | 30.65M | 23.63M | 48.83M | 22.75M |
| Total Debt | 513.91M | 585.12M | 610.79M | 657.13M | 672.89M |
| Total Liabilities | 669.88M | 725.58M | 762.38M | 830.36M | 852.02M |
| Stockholders Equity | -106.35M | -84.27M | -20.44M | 1.79M | 76.97M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 6.22M | -18.99M | -50.60M | -2.63M | 5.03M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 37.01M | 7.05M | -1.16M | 35.53M | 47.29M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -24.62M | -1.75M | 8.23M | -29.57M | -42.24M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -22.25M | 2.54M | -33.71M | 29.53M | 1.56M |
Red Robin Gourmet Technical Analysis
Positive
3.95
Price Trends
3.57
Positive
3.81
Positive
4.97
Negative
Market Momentum
0.06
Negative
65.46
Neutral
84.41
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RRGB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.95 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.23, above the 50-day MA of 3.57, and below the 200-day MA of 4.97, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.41 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RRGB.
Red Robin Gourmet Risk Analysis
Red Robin Gourmet disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Red Robin Gourmet reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Red Robin Gourmet Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $2.96B | 12.87 | 38.34% | 2.11% | 5.14% | 8.17% | |
62 Neutral | $58.92M | 5.01 | 8.92% | 1.89% | 5.74% | 47.36% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
55 Neutral | $377.89M | 10.80 | -6.47% | 5.10% | 8.39% | -70.93% | |
47 Neutral | $68.37M | -1.84 | 25.76% | ― | -3.07% | 73.53% | |
46 Neutral | $207.33M | 5.33 | -3.80% | 9.34% | -17.16% | ― |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
RRGB
Red Robin Gourmet
3.77
0.69
22.40%
DIN
Dine Brands Global
29.79
6.78
29.44%
BDL
Flanigan's Enterprises
31.70
8.85
38.72%
JACK
Jack In The Box
10.87
-11.10
-50.52%
CAKE
Cheesecake Factory
59.49
6.02
11.26%
Red Robin Gourmet Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Red Robin Shareholders Back Board, Pay and ESPP Changes
Positive
May 15, 2026
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. held its annual meeting of stockholders on May 14, 2026, with approximately 80.66% of outstanding shares represented, and stockholders elected all seven board nominees to one-year terms. Investors also approved on a...
Executive/Board Changes
Red Robin Announces Resignation of Chief Legal Officer
Neutral
May 1, 2026
On April 27, 2026, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. announced that Chief Legal Officer and Secretary Sarah A. Mussetter had submitted her resignation, with her departure to take effect on May 15, 2026. She will remain in her role through that date ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Red Robin Gourmet Appoints Mark Graff as New CFO
Positive
Apr 30, 2026
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc., a casual dining restaurant chain, announced on April 29, 2026 that it has appointed Mark Graff as Chief Financial Officer, effective May 4, 2026, with Graff set to become principal financial and accounting officer ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.