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Red Robin Gourmet
(NASDAQ:RRGB)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$8.50
▲(17.73% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/24/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance—multi-year revenue declines, continued losses, and a highly constrained balance sheet with negative equity and meaningful leverage—despite improving EBITDA and positive operating cash flow. Technicals are moderately positive with the stock in an uptrend and healthy (not overbought) momentum. Guidance and recent refranchising actions add support via operational progress and planned debt reduction, but near-term top-line pressure, commodity exposure, and limited liquidity keep overall risk elevated.
Positive Factors
Improved EBITDA & Operating Cash Flow
Recovered restaurant-level EBITDA margins (~4–6%) alongside a return to positive operating cash flow in 2024–2025 and TTM signal that core operations can generate cash. Durable cash generation improves the firm's capacity to service debt, fund targeted reinvestment and support refranchising without immediate external equity infusions.
Negative Factors
Negative Equity & High Leverage
Negative shareholders' equity and sustained high debt create a structural constraint on financial flexibility. This leverage profile heightens refinancing and covenant risk, reduces capacity to absorb shocks, and limits the company’s ability to pursue opportunistic investments or withstand another prolonged top-line slowdown.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved EBITDA & Operating Cash Flow
Recovered restaurant-level EBITDA margins (~4–6%) alongside a return to positive operating cash flow in 2024–2025 and TTM signal that core operations can generate cash. Durable cash generation improves the firm's capacity to service debt, fund targeted reinvestment and support refranchising without immediate external equity infusions.
Read all positive factors
Red Robin Gourmet Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Restaurant Count
Tracks the total number of restaurants, reflecting the company’s scale and market presence. Growth in this number can signal expansion and increased market share.
Tracks the total number of restaurants, reflecting the company’s scale and market presence. Growth in this number can signal expansion and increased market share.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyRed Robin Gourmet (RRGB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$150.96M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)293.63K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.26
Revenue Growth-3.71%
EPS Growth50.04%
CountryUS
Employees18,852
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.49
Shares Outstanding18,499,651
10 Day Avg. Volume122,160
30 Day Avg. Volume293,629
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.04
Price to Book (P/B)-0.69
Price to Sales (P/S)0.06
P/FCF Ratio11.80
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.75Price Target Upside76.59% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.36
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.15B
Red Robin Gourmet Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc., along with its affiliated entities, is involved in the development, operation, and franchising of casual and full-service restaurant concepts. Its establishments are renowned for their signature gourmet burgers and...
How the Company Makes Money
RRGB generates revenue primarily through restaurant sales from company-owned locations, which include food and beverage sales to guests across dine-in and off-premises occasions (takeout and delivery). A secondary revenue stream comes from its fra...
Red Robin Gourmet Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 12, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated clear operational momentum: comp revenue growth, improving traffic and competitive share, margin expansion, strong labor efficiency, product innovation, and meaningful refranchising agreements that should materially strengthen the balance sheet once closed. Offsetting these positives are a year-over-year revenue decline (impacted by closures), a reduction in adjusted EBITDA driven by higher marketing investment, elevated selling expense, some mix pressure from value offerings, and near-term refinancing and execution risks until refranchising proceeds are realized and refinancing is completed. Overall, management expressed confidence and maintained full-year guidance while emphasizing cautious execution on the refranchising and refinancing roadmap.Positive Updates
Comparable Restaurant Revenue Growth
Comparable restaurant revenue increased 1.3% in Q2 (excluding deferred loyalty revenue), driven by a 1.5% average check increase while traffic was effectively flat (-20 basis points).
Negative Updates
Total Revenue Decline
Total revenues for Q2 were $278 million, down $6.1 million versus the prior year, primarily due to restaurant closures.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Comparable Restaurant Revenue Growth
Comparable restaurant revenue increased 1.3% in Q2 (excluding deferred loyalty revenue), driven by a 1.5% average check increase while traffic was effectively flat (-20 basis points).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance: comparable restaurant revenues +0.5% to +1.5% (excluding deferred loyalty revenue), restaurant‑level operating margin of ~13%, adjusted EBITDA of $70–$73 million, and capital expenditures of $25–$30 million (guidance excludes tactical refranchising impact). For context, Q2 results included $278 million of total revenues, comp sales +1.3% (traffic essentially flat, down 20 bps), average check +1.5% (price +3.3%, mix/discounts -1.8%), restaurant‑level operating margin 14.7% (+20 bps YoY), adjusted EBITDA $18.9 million, cash $23 million, restricted cash $10 million, $25 million revolver availability and total liquidity of $48 million; management expects roughly $96 million of gross proceeds from three refranchising deals (to be received in Q3) and is ~60% locked on 2026 commodity needs (front‑half commodity pressure ~5% trending to a blended ~3% in the back half).Red Robin Gourmet Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
32
Negative
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.20B | 1.21B | 1.25B | 1.30B | 1.27B | 1.16B |
| Gross Profit | 241.55M | 822.38M | 852.81M | 417.79M | 419.59M | 394.36M |
| EBITDA | 50.18M | 54.05M | 5.38M | 71.83M | 18.75M | 47.02M |
| Net Income | -26.71M | -23.28M | -77.54M | -21.23M | -78.88M | -50.44M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 543.85M | 563.53M | 641.31M | 741.93M | 832.14M | 929.00M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 24.27M | 19.92M | 30.65M | 23.63M | 48.83M | 22.75M |
| Total Debt | 509.26M | 515.00M | 585.12M | 610.79M | 657.13M | 672.89M |
| Total Liabilities | 650.50M | 669.88M | 725.58M | 762.38M | 830.36M | 852.02M |
| Stockholders Equity | -106.66M | -106.35M | -84.27M | -20.44M | 1.79M | 76.97M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.11M | 6.22M | -18.99M | -50.60M | -2.63M | 5.03M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 24.41M | 37.01M | 7.05M | -1.16M | 35.53M | 47.29M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -24.95M | -24.62M | -1.75M | 8.23M | -29.57M | -42.24M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.17M | -22.25M | 2.54M | -33.71M | 29.53M | 1.56M |
Red Robin Gourmet Technical Analysis
Positive
7.22
Price Trends
6.71
Positive
5.21
Positive
4.66
Positive
Market Momentum
0.41
Positive
63.85
Neutral
58.48
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RRGB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.22 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.64, above the 50-day MA of 6.71, and above the 200-day MA of 4.66, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.41 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 63.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.48 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RRGB.
Red Robin Gourmet Risk Analysis
Red Robin Gourmet disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Red Robin Gourmet reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Red Robin Gourmet Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $80.67M | 13.45 | 9.04% | 1.89% | 6.14% | 53.60% | |
66 Neutral | $5.84B | 29.21 | 38.83% | 1.35% | 5.66% | 14.01% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
55 Neutral | $358.01M | 10.78 | -3.80% | ― | -20.21% | ― | |
52 Neutral | $150.96M | -5.86 | 27.56% | ― | -3.71% | 50.04% | |
50 Neutral | $461.68M | 68.14 | -2.46% | 3.17% | 6.44% | -82.92% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
RRGB
Red Robin Gourmet
9.90
3.82
62.83%
DIN
Dine Brands Global
34.75
14.00
67.47%
BDL
Flanigan's Enterprises
48.01
17.71
58.45%
JACK
Jack In The Box
18.76
-1.89
-9.15%
CAKE
Cheesecake Factory
111.88
49.65
79.78%
Red Robin Gourmet Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Red Robin Adds Michael Kappitt to Board
Positive
Jul 23, 2026
On July 17, 2026, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. expanded its Board of Directors from seven to eight members and appointed Michael Kappitt as a new independent director, effective July 24, 2026, with a term extending until the 2027 Annual Meeting...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Red Robin Announces Major Refranchising and Debt Reduction Plan
Positive
Jun 15, 2026
On June 11, 2026, Red Robin International signed asset purchase agreements to sell 69 company-owned restaurants in eight eastern and southern states to Op Burgers, LLC for $62.5 million and 17 units in Oregon and Washington to Kuber entities for $...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Red Robin Refranchises 30 Restaurants to Evergreen Dining
Positive
May 28, 2026
On May 27 and May 28, 2026, Red Robin said its subsidiary Red Robin International agreed to sell the assets of 30 company-owned restaurants in Washington and western Idaho to Evergreen Dining LLC for $23.5 million in cash. Evergreen, backed by pri...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Red Robin Shareholders Back Board, Pay and ESPP Changes
Positive
May 15, 2026
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. held its annual meeting of stockholders on May 14, 2026, with approximately 80.66% of outstanding shares represented, and stockholders elected all seven board nominees to one-year terms. Investors also approved on a...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.