Red Robin Gourmet (RRGB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $103.22M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.65M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.54
• Revenue Growth: -1.68%
• EPS Growth: -140.83%
• Country: US
• Employees: 21,443
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 57
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 0.19
• Shares Outstanding: 17,735,916
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,637,510
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,651,850
• PEG Ratio: -2.20
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.18
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 701.84
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 6.67
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.14
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.76
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.11
• 1Y Price Target: $12.00
• Price Target Upside: 123.05% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: $5.50 ▲(2.23%Upside)

Red Robin faces substantial financial difficulties, with notable weaknesses in financial performance and valuation metrics. While technical analysis and the new CEO appointment offer some optimism, the company's financial health is the most significant factor impacting its overall score.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Red Robin announced that its expected AEBITDA results for 1Q25 will exceed prior guidance, indicating better-than-expected financial performance.

Management and Strategy

The CEO transition to David Pace, who has extensive experience in the restaurant industry, is expected to enhance the company's forward marketing strategy and operational improvements.

Profitability

Much stronger than expected profitability driven by efficiency gains against solid revenue trends.

Negative Factors

Revenue Expectations

Management issued 2025 revenue guidance that was below our expectations for revenue due to upcoming restaurant closures.

Revenue Guidance

Full year revenue guidance was lowered by $15M-$20M on an ~100bps lower traffic assumption reflecting the current macro environment and April and May traffic trends.

Traffic Trends

Full year revenue guidance was lowered by $15M-$20M on an ~100bps lower traffic assumption reflecting the current macro environment and April and May traffic trends.

Red Robin Gourmet Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, operates, and franchises full-service and casual-dining restaurants. The company's restaurants primarily offer burgers and shareable pizzas; various appetizers, salads, soups, sandwiches, seafood, and other entrees; and desserts, wings, milkshakes, alcoholic and non-alcoholic specialty drinks, cocktails, wine, and beers. As of December 26, 2021, it operated approximately 531 Red Robin restaurants, including 430 were company-owned and 101 were operated by franchisees in the United States and one Canadian province. Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is based in Greenwood Village, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. generates revenue primarily through the operation of its company-owned and franchised restaurants. The company's key revenue streams include sales of food and beverages directly to customers dining in its locations. Additionally, Red Robin benefits from licensing and franchise fees from franchised restaurant operations. The company also engages in strategic partnerships with suppliers and vendors to optimize its supply chain and reduce costs, contributing positively to its earnings. While Red Robin's core business revolves around its restaurant services, it continually seeks to enhance its profitability through menu innovation, customer loyalty programs, and targeted marketing efforts.

Red Robin Gourmet Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Red Robin faces significant financial challenges, including declining revenues, negative equity, and ongoing cash flow issues. Despite a slight improvement in cash flows, the company's profitability and solvency remain weak.

Income Statement

Red Robin Gourmet has faced declining revenues, with a negative revenue growth rate of -4.17% from 2023 to 2024. The company also experienced negative net and EBIT margins, indicating profitability challenges. Despite a positive EBITDA margin in 2023, the overall financial health in terms of profitability is weak.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet is concerning, with negative stockholders' equity in 2023, indicating insolvency risks. The debt-to-equity ratio is not calculable due to negative equity, and the equity ratio is effectively zero, further highlighting financial instability.

Cash Flow

While Red Robin's free cash flow improved slightly from -$50.6 million in 2023 to -$18.9 million in 2024, it remains negative, suggesting ongoing cash flow challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is not favorable, but there is a slight improvement in operational cash flows.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.25B	1.30B	1.27B	1.16B	868.72M
	Gross Profit
852.81M	192.79M	420.68M	394.80M	237.88M
	EBIT
-53.08M	4.54M	-56.41M	-36.70M	-275.15M
	EBITDA
5.38M	71.83M	18.75M	47.46M	-185.83M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-77.54M	-21.23M	-77.80M	-50.00M	-276.07M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
30.65M	23.63M	48.83M	22.75M	16.12M
	Total Assets
641.31M	741.93M	832.14M	929.00M	974.74M
	Total Debt
578.38M	618.54M	647.08M	660.93M	691.15M
	Net Debt
547.73M	587.16M	598.25M	638.18M	675.04M
	Total Liabilities
725.58M	762.38M	826.77M	852.02M	854.03M
	Stockholders Equity
-84.27M	-20.44M	5.38M	76.97M	120.71M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-18.99M	-50.60M	-2.63M	5.03M	-1.90M
	Operating Cash Flow
7.05M	-1.16M	35.53M	47.29M	20.23M
	Investing Cash Flow
-1.75M	8.23M	-29.57M	-42.24M	-21.39M
	Financing Cash Flow
2.54M	-33.71M	29.53M	1.56M	-11.70M

Red Robin Gourmet Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 5.38
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RRGB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.38 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.57, above the 50-day MA of 3.57, and above the 200-day MA of 4.64, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.78 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.55 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RRGB.

Red Robin Gourmet Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CAKE	74 Outperform	$2.84B	18.00	46.60%	1.88%	4.42%	48.23%
PBPB	72 Outperform	$337.93M	7.81	117.47%	―	-3.96%	1036.87%
BJRI	70 Neutral	$968.67M	46.78	6.01%	―	2.91%	-4.86%
CBRL	65 Neutral	$1.21B	21.16	12.90%	1.80%	2.84%	-4.44%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$6.94B	11.34	2.80%	4.26%	2.68%	-24.70%
DENN	59 Neutral	$216.79M	12.63	-63.40%	―	-0.53%	-24.19%
RRGB	53 Neutral	$103.22M	―	92.02%	―	-1.68%	-140.83%

Red Robin Gourmet Corporate Events

Red Robin Elects Directors and Ratifies Auditor

At the annual meeting of stockholders held on May 22, 2025, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. elected all nine directors nominated by the board for one-year terms. Stockholders approved the compensation of executive officers but did not pass proposals to amend the company’s Certificate of Incorporation for officer exculpation and to eliminate supermajority vote requirements. Additionally, the appointment of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the 2025 fiscal year was ratified.

The most recent analyst rating on (RRGB) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Red Robin Gourmet stock, see the RRGB Stock Forecast page.

Red Robin Gourmet Appoints New CEO David A. Pace

On April 24, 2025, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. announced a leadership transition with David A. Pace appointed as the new President and CEO, succeeding G.J. Hart. Mr. Hart, who has been instrumental in transforming Red Robin into an operations-focused restaurant company, will remain as a senior advisor until September 2025. The transition aims to continue the company’s growth and improve its financial performance, with Mr. Pace bringing extensive industry experience to lead the next phase of transformation. The company also expects a positive financial outlook for the first quarter of 2025, with anticipated increases in comparable restaurant sales and adjusted EBITDA.