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Red Robin Gourmet
(NASDAQ:RRGB)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$7.00
▲(77.22% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/17/26
The score is held back mainly by weak financial fundamentals—declining revenue, ongoing losses, inconsistent free cash flow, and especially negative equity with high leverage. Technicals provide support with strong upward momentum, but overbought indicators increase near-term risk. The latest earnings call was balanced: guidance was maintained and margins/labor improved, but traffic and revenue pressure, limited liquidity, and commodity exposure remain key risks.
Positive Factors
Refranchising plan to reduce debt
Large-scale refranchising (~$96M in announced transactions plus prior 30-unit sale) is a structural shift away from capital-intensive ownership. Proceeds targeted to debt reduction should lower leverage, reduce future capex needs and improve cash flow conversion, enhancing balance-sheet flexibility over the medium term as deals close.
Negative Factors
Negative shareholder equity & high leverage
Negative equity and elevated debt create a persistent structural constraint on flexibility. It raises refinancing and covenant risk, limits ability to invest in growth or weather commodity shocks, and may force continued asset disposals or accelerated refranchising if cash access tightens.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Refranchising plan to reduce debt
Large-scale refranchising (~$96M in announced transactions plus prior 30-unit sale) is a structural shift away from capital-intensive ownership. Proceeds targeted to debt reduction should lower leverage, reduce future capex needs and improve cash flow conversion, enhancing balance-sheet flexibility over the medium term as deals close.
Read all positive factors
Red Robin Gourmet Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Restaurant Count
Tracks the total number of restaurants, reflecting the company’s scale and market presence. Growth in this number can signal expansion and increased market share.
Tracks the total number of restaurants, reflecting the company’s scale and market presence. Growth in this number can signal expansion and increased market share.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyRed Robin Gourmet (RRGB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$125.80M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)339.23K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.28
Revenue Growth-4.49%
EPS Growth64.71%
CountryUS
Employees21,443
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.49
Shares Outstanding18,499,651
10 Day Avg. Volume330,389
30 Day Avg. Volume339,233
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.04
Price to Book (P/B)-0.69
Price to Sales (P/S)0.06
P/FCF Ratio11.80
Enterprise Value/Market Cap4.78
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.50
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.49
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.99
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.17Price Target Upside182.70% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.32
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.16B
Red Robin Gourmet Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc., along with its affiliated entities, is involved in the development, operation, and franchising of casual and full-service restaurant concepts. Its establishments are renowned for their signature gourmet burgers and...
How the Company Makes Money
RRGB generates revenue primarily through restaurant sales from company-owned locations, which include food and beverage sales to guests across dine-in and off-premises occasions (takeout and delivery). A secondary revenue stream comes from its fra...
Red Robin Gourmet Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 19, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mix of operational gains and remaining financial headwinds. Management highlighted meaningful progress: traffic momentum improvement, the highest Q1 restaurant margin since 2021, strong labor efficiencies, successful traction of the Big Yummm value platform (mixing ~13%–14%), G&A reductions, and active refranchising discussions. Offsetting these positives are continued revenue pressure (Q1 revenue down $14M), comps down 60 basis points and traffic down 1.6%, a small decline in adjusted EBITDA, the impact of restaurant closures (~$40M sales effect), and commodity exposure with only ~60% of 2026 needs locked. Management maintained full-year guidance and emphasized discipline and momentum, leaving the picture balanced between operational improvement and near-term financial challenges.Positive Updates
Balance Sheet / Refranchising Progress
Tactical refranchising discussions in final stages with sophisticated prospects; planned use of proceeds to reduce debt. Ended Q1 with $24M cash, $10M restricted cash and $17M available on revolver.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline
Total revenues for Q1 were $378 million, down $14 million from 2025 (approximately a 3.6% decline), driven primarily by restaurant closures and lower comp sales.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Balance Sheet / Refranchising Progress
Tactical refranchising discussions in final stages with sophisticated prospects; planned use of proceeds to reduce debt. Ended Q1 with $24M cash, $10M restricted cash and $17M available on revolver.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management maintained 2026 guidance: comparable restaurant revenues +0.5% to +1.5% (ex‑deferred loyalty), restaurant‑level operating profit margin of ~13%, adjusted EBITDA of $70–$73M, and capital expenditures of $25–$30M (outlook excludes any impact from tactical refranchising). For context, Q1 results showed $378M in revenue, comps down 0.6% (average check +1.0%, traffic -1.6%), Q1 adjusted EBITDA $27M, restaurant operating margin 14.8% (+50 bps YoY), labor at 35.7% with ~130 bps YoY labor savings, Big Yummm mix >13%, roughly 60% of 2026 commodity needs locked, $24M cash (+$10M restricted) and $17M available on the revolver.Red Robin Gourmet Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
32
Negative
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.20B | 1.21B | 1.25B | 1.30B | 1.27B | 1.16B |
| Gross Profit | 241.55M | 822.38M | 852.81M | 417.79M | 419.59M | 394.36M |
| EBITDA | 50.18M | 54.05M | 5.38M | 71.83M | 18.75M | 47.02M |
| Net Income | -26.71M | -23.28M | -77.54M | -21.23M | -78.88M | -50.44M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 543.85M | 563.53M | 641.31M | 741.93M | 832.14M | 929.00M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 24.27M | 19.92M | 30.65M | 23.63M | 48.83M | 22.75M |
| Total Debt | 509.26M | 515.00M | 585.12M | 610.79M | 657.13M | 672.89M |
| Total Liabilities | 650.50M | 669.88M | 725.58M | 762.38M | 830.36M | 852.02M |
| Stockholders Equity | -106.66M | -106.35M | -84.27M | -20.44M | 1.79M | 76.97M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.11M | 6.22M | -18.99M | -50.60M | -2.63M | 5.03M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 24.41M | 37.01M | 7.05M | -1.16M | 35.53M | 47.29M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -24.95M | -24.62M | -1.75M | 8.23M | -29.57M | -42.24M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.17M | -22.25M | 2.54M | -33.71M | 29.53M | 1.56M |
Red Robin Gourmet Technical Analysis
Positive
3.95
Price Trends
5.04
Positive
4.33
Positive
4.58
Positive
Market Momentum
0.60
Positive
59.05
Neutral
23.91
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RRGB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.95 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.40, below the 50-day MA of 5.04, and below the 200-day MA of 4.58, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.60 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.91 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RRGB.
Red Robin Gourmet Risk Analysis
Red Robin Gourmet disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Red Robin Gourmet reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Red Robin Gourmet Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $3.90B | 23.73 | 38.34% | 2.11% | 5.14% | 8.17% | |
63 Neutral | $77.32M | 13.42 | 9.04% | 1.89% | 5.74% | 47.36% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
54 Neutral | $445.12M | 34.16 | -6.47% | 5.10% | 8.39% | -70.93% | |
52 Neutral | $125.80M | -4.73 | 27.56% | ― | -4.49% | 64.71% | |
48 Neutral | $289.35M | 3.42 | -3.80% | 9.34% | -17.16% | ― |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
RRGB
Red Robin Gourmet
6.99
1.03
17.28%
DIN
Dine Brands Global
35.71
11.71
48.79%
BDL
Flanigan's Enterprises
44.90
12.19
37.28%
JACK
Jack In The Box
14.89
-7.86
-34.55%
CAKE
Cheesecake Factory
82.76
19.26
30.33%
Red Robin Gourmet Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Red Robin Announces Major Refranchising and Debt Reduction Plan
Positive
Jun 15, 2026
On June 11, 2026, Red Robin International signed asset purchase agreements to sell 69 company-owned restaurants in eight eastern and southern states to Op Burgers, LLC for $62.5 million and 17 units in Oregon and Washington to Kuber entities for $...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Red Robin Refranchises 30 Restaurants to Evergreen Dining
Positive
May 28, 2026
On May 27 and May 28, 2026, Red Robin said its subsidiary Red Robin International agreed to sell the assets of 30 company-owned restaurants in Washington and western Idaho to Evergreen Dining LLC for $23.5 million in cash. Evergreen, backed by pri...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Red Robin Shareholders Back Board, Pay and ESPP Changes
Positive
May 15, 2026
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. held its annual meeting of stockholders on May 14, 2026, with approximately 80.66% of outstanding shares represented, and stockholders elected all seven board nominees to one-year terms. Investors also approved on a...
Executive/Board Changes
Red Robin Announces Resignation of Chief Legal Officer
Neutral
May 1, 2026
On April 27, 2026, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. announced that Chief Legal Officer and Secretary Sarah A. Mussetter had submitted her resignation, with her departure to take effect on May 15, 2026. She will remain in her role through that date ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Red Robin Gourmet Appoints Mark Graff as New CFO
Positive
Apr 30, 2026
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc., a casual dining restaurant chain, announced on April 29, 2026 that it has appointed Mark Graff as Chief Financial Officer, effective May 4, 2026, with Graff set to become principal financial and accounting officer ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.