Target (TGT)
NYSE:TGT
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Target
(NYSE:TGT)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$121.00
▲(3.98% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:03/03/26
The score is driven primarily by steady-but-not-strong financial performance (muted growth, elevated leverage, and softer cash flow conversion). Offsetting factors include supportive valuation (moderate P/E and ~4% yield) and moderately positive technicals, while the latest earnings call remained mixed due to negative comps despite improving digital performance and stated efficiency initiatives.
Positive Factors
Omnichannel fulfillment
Strong same-day delivery growth demonstrates durable fulfillment and digital capabilities that use stores as mini-distribution centers. Over time this increases customer convenience, supports higher basket frequency, improves inventory turns and protects market share versus pure‑play e‑commerce rivals.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
A debt/equity ratio near 1.3x is high for a low‑margin retailer and reduces financial flexibility. Elevated leverage amplifies downside risk if sales or margins slip, increases interest burden, and constrains the company's ability to fund opportunistic investments or absorb macro shocks without cutting returns or raising more capital.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Omnichannel fulfillment
Strong same-day delivery growth demonstrates durable fulfillment and digital capabilities that use stores as mini-distribution centers. Over time this increases customer convenience, supports higher basket frequency, improves inventory turns and protects market share versus pure‑play e‑commerce rivals.
Read all positive factors
Target (TGT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$52.70B
Dividend Yield4.79%
Average Volume (3M)6.44M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.8
Beta (1Y)0.58
Revenue Growth-2.16%
EPS Growth-12.66%
CountryUS
Employees440,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryDiscount Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.44
Shares Outstanding452,855,600
10 Day Avg. Volume6,778,516
30 Day Avg. Volume6,437,748
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.57
Price to Book (P/B)2.96
Price to Sales (P/S)0.46
P/FCF Ratio16.89
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.50
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.83
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.06
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$126.79Price Target Upside8.95% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering26
EPS Forecast (FY)7.98
Revenue Forecast (FY)$106.78B
Target Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Target Corporation operates as a general merchandise retailer in the United States. The company offers food assortments, including perishables, dry grocery, dairy, and frozen items; apparel, accessories, home décor products, electronics, toys, sea...
How the Company Makes Money
Target generates revenue primarily through the sale of products across various categories, including apparel, home goods, electronics, and groceries. The company operates a mix of physical stores and a robust e-commerce platform, which contributes...
Target Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Total Store Count
Reflects the overall number of stores, providing insight into the company's expansion strategy and market presence.
Reflects the overall number of stores, providing insight into the company's expansion strategy and market presence.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyTarget Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 19, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment. While there are strong areas of growth, particularly in same-day delivery and inventory management improvements, Target faces challenges in discretionary sales and overall consumer sentiment. The company's restructuring efforts, including job cuts, and the decline in comparable sales highlight significant challenges.Positive Updates
Record Top-Line Growth Since 2014
Target's top-line revenue is expected to be over $30 billion higher than when Brian Cornell became CEO in 2014, and adjusted EPS has doubled since then.
Negative Updates
Decline in Comparable Sales
Q3 comparable sales were down 2.7%, with continued softness in discretionary categories like home and apparel.
Read all updates
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Top-Line Growth Since 2014
Target's top-line revenue is expected to be over $30 billion higher than when Brian Cornell became CEO in 2014, and adjusted EPS has doubled since then.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the Target Corporation third quarter earnings call for fiscal year 2025, the company provided guidance that reflects a focus on returning to sustainable and profitable growth. The company set three interrelated priorities: enhancing merchandising authority, elevating the shopping experience, and leveraging technology to improve efficiency and guest interactions. Despite a 2.7% decline in comparable sales and a 1.5% decline in net sales year-over-year, Target saw growth in digital sales, particularly a 35% increase in same-day delivery services. The gross margin rate slightly decreased to 28.2%, reflecting higher markdowns, while SG&A expenses increased by 60 basis points due to onetime business transformation costs. For the full year, the adjusted EPS is expected to be between $7 and $8, with a GAAP EPS range approximately $0.70 higher. Target plans to increase capital expenditures to $5 billion in fiscal year 2026, focusing on store remodels, technology, and new store openings to drive growth.Target Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 104.78B | 106.57B | 107.41B | 109.12B | 106.00B |
| Gross Profit | 29.27B | 30.06B | 29.58B | 26.81B | 31.04B |
| EBITDA | 8.01B | 8.65B | 8.60B | 6.60B | 11.97B |
| Net Income | 3.71B | 4.09B | 4.14B | 2.78B | 6.95B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 59.49B | 57.77B | 55.36B | 53.34B | 53.81B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.49B | 4.76B | 3.81B | 2.23B | 5.91B |
| Total Debt | 5.59B | 19.88B | 19.65B | 19.07B | 16.47B |
| Total Liabilities | 43.33B | 43.10B | 41.92B | 42.10B | 40.98B |
| Stockholders Equity | 16.16B | 14.67B | 13.43B | 11.23B | 12.83B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.83B | 4.48B | 3.81B | -1.51B | 5.08B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.56B | 7.37B | 8.62B | 4.02B | 8.63B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.65B | -2.86B | -4.76B | -5.50B | -3.15B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.19B | -3.55B | -2.29B | -2.20B | -8.07B |
Target Technical Analysis
Positive
116.37
Price Trends
113.01
Positive
103.03
Positive
98.58
Positive
Market Momentum
0.60
Positive
52.88
Neutral
48.64
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TGT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 116.37 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 117.02, above the 50-day MA of 113.01, and above the 200-day MA of 98.58, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.60 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TGT.
Target Risk Analysis
Target disclosed 17 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Target reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Target Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $432.50B | 55.55 | 28.81% | 0.59% | 8.34% | 9.58% | |
73 Outperform | $981.08B | 43.44 | 23.69% | 0.85% | 4.34% | 17.27% | |
68 Neutral | $12.68B | 20.97 | 27.41% | ― | 2.82% | 3.77% | |
63 Neutral | $52.70B | 8.81 | 26.06% | 4.79% | -2.16% | -12.66% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
56 Neutral | $21.04B | 11.56 | 34.83% | ― | -39.27% | -182.36% | |
55 Neutral | $26.33B | 20.87 | 18.66% | 1.88% | 4.86% | -4.51% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
TGT
Target
116.37
14.53
14.26%
COST
Costco
974.86
41.23
4.42%
DG
Dollar General
119.55
33.90
39.58%
DLTR
Dollar Tree
106.64
29.69
38.58%
WMT
Walmart
123.06
38.18
44.99%
BJ
Bj's Wholesale Club Holdings
97.81
-14.67
-13.04%
Target Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Target Announces Leadership Changes in Operations and Commerce
Neutral
Feb 10, 2026
On February 10, 2026, Target Corporation announced that longtime executive Lisa Roath will become Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, effective February 15, 2026, following a two-decade career at the company in senior merchandisi...
Executive/Board Changes
Target appoints Michael Fiddelke as new CEO, updates leadership
Neutral
Feb 5, 2026
On February 1, 2026, Target implemented a leadership transition in which Michael J. Fiddelke became Chief Executive Officer and a member of the board, with his compensation set on January 31, 2026. Fiddelke will receive a $1.30 million annual base...
Executive/Board Changes
Target Adds Experienced Independent Leaders to Board Committees
Positive
Jan 22, 2026
On January 21, 2026, Target’s board elected former Nike executive John R. Hoke III to its board of directors, effective March 1, 2026, assigning him to the Compensation Human Capital Management Committee and the Governance Sustainability C...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.