Target (TGT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $54.70B
• Dividend Yield: 4.79%
• Average Volume (3M): 6.08M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.61
• Revenue Growth: -2.16%
• EPS Growth: -12.66%
• Country: US
• Employees: 440,000
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Discount Stores
• EPS (TTM): 2.44
• Shares Outstanding: 452,806,430
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,785,806
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,082,923
• PEG Ratio: -1.57
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.96
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.46
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.30
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.00
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.51
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.88
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.24
• 1Y Price Target: $119.23
• Price Target Upside: -1.30% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 24
• EPS Forecast (FY): 7.79
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $106.79B

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $121.00 ▲(0.17% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 03/03/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 03/03/26

The score is driven primarily by steady-but-not-strong financial performance (muted growth, elevated leverage, and softer cash flow conversion). Offsetting factors include supportive valuation (moderate P/E and ~4% yield) and moderately positive technicals, while the latest earnings call remained mixed due to negative comps despite improving digital performance and stated efficiency initiatives.

Positive Factors

Omnichannel fulfillment

Strong same-day delivery growth demonstrates durable fulfillment and digital capabilities that use stores as mini-distribution centers. Over time this increases customer convenience, supports higher basket frequency, improves inventory turns and protects market share versus pure‑play e‑commerce rivals.

Store expansion & targeted CapEx

A sustained $5B CapEx program with >30 new stores and 130+ remodels is a structural bet to refresh the store fleet and strengthen in-store merchandising. If executed, it can boost comp sales, improve assortment presentation and extend useful life of assets, driving mid-term revenue and operating-margin recovery.

Growing private‑label momentum

Acceleration of owned brands like Good & Gather supports higher gross margins and exclusive differentiation. Larger private‑label scale improves supplier leverage, margin mix and customer loyalty, creating a durable source of margin expansion and recurring revenue independent of national brand cycles.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage

A debt/equity ratio near 1.3x is high for a low‑margin retailer and reduces financial flexibility. Elevated leverage amplifies downside risk if sales or margins slip, increases interest burden, and constrains the company's ability to fund opportunistic investments or absorb macro shocks without cutting returns or raising more capital.

Stagnant top‑line growth

Persistent flat or negative revenue growth limits operating leverage and ability to scale SG&A absorption. Over the medium term this makes margin expansion harder, reduces incremental cash generation per store, and increases reliance on execution (assortment, remodels) to restore sustainable sales momentum.

Weaker cash conversion

Declining operating cash flow and a free‑cash‑flow conversion near 44% reduce the firm's internal funding for capex, dividends and buybacks. Over several quarters this limits strategic flexibility, may pressure balance sheet improvements, and forces tougher prioritization between growth investments and shareholder returns.

Target Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Target Corporation operates as a general merchandise retailer in the United States. The company offers food assortments, including perishables, dry grocery, dairy, and frozen items; apparel, accessories, home décor products, electronics, toys, seasonal offerings, food, and other merchandise; and beauty and household essentials. It also provides in-store amenities, such as Target Café, Target Optical, Starbucks, and other food service offerings. The company sells its products through its stores; and digital channels, including Target.com. As of March 09, 2022, the company operated approximately 2,000 stores. Target Corporation was incorporated in 1902 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

How the Company Makes Money

Target generates revenue primarily through the sale of products across various categories, including apparel, home goods, electronics, and groceries. The company operates a mix of physical stores and a robust e-commerce platform, which contributes significantly to its overall sales. Key revenue streams include in-store purchases, online sales, and exclusive product offerings through partnerships with various brands. Additionally, Target has developed its own private label brands, which have higher profit margins than national brands. The company also engages in promotional activities and loyalty programs that encourage repeat purchases. Strategic partnerships with suppliers and collaborations with designers enhance Target's product offerings and attract a wider customer base, further driving sales. Seasonal promotions, such as back-to-school and holiday campaigns, are critical in boosting revenue during peak shopping periods.

Target Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are stable but mixed: revenue is essentially flat (TTM ~-0.3%), profitability has recovered from the 2023 trough but remains below prior peaks, leverage is still elevated (debt/equity ~1.29x), and cash flow momentum has softened with lower operating cash flow and weaker free-cash-flow conversion (~44% of net income).

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is essentially flat versus the prior year (about -0.3%), continuing a multi-year stretch of low/negative top-line growth. Profitability is stable but modest for the sector: gross margin is ~27.7% and net margin ~3.6% in TTM, slightly below last year but far better than the 2023 trough. Operating profitability has recovered from 2023 levels, yet remains well below the 2021–2022 peak, indicating earnings power has improved but not fully normalized.

Balance Sheet

Leverage remains a key overhang: debt relative to equity is ~1.29x in TTM (still elevated, though improved from the ~1.70x level in 2023). Equity has grown versus 2023, supporting a healthier capital base, and returns on equity are solid (~24.9% TTM), reflecting decent profitability on the equity base. The main weakness is the still-high leverage profile for a low-margin retailer, which can amplify downside risk if margins compress.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive but has softened: operating cash flow fell to ~$6.6B in TTM from ~$7.4B last year, and free cash flow declined to ~$2.9B with a negative growth rate versus the prior year. Free cash flow covers less than half of net income in TTM (~44%), suggesting weaker cash conversion than last year (when it was ~61%). Strengths include remaining solidly free-cash-flow positive after the 2023 deficit, but the downward momentum and lower cash conversion weigh on the score.

Breakdown	Jan 2026	Jan 2025	Jan 2024	Jan 2023	Jan 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	104.78B	106.57B	107.41B	109.12B	106.00B
Gross Profit	29.27B	30.06B	29.58B	26.81B	31.04B
EBITDA	8.01B	8.65B	8.60B	6.60B	11.97B
Net Income	3.71B	4.09B	4.14B	2.78B	6.95B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	59.49B	57.77B	55.36B	53.34B	53.81B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.49B	4.76B	3.81B	2.23B	5.91B
Total Debt	5.59B	19.88B	19.65B	19.07B	16.47B
Total Liabilities	43.33B	43.10B	41.92B	42.10B	40.98B
Stockholders Equity	16.16B	14.67B	13.43B	11.23B	12.83B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	6.56B	4.48B	3.81B	-1.51B	5.08B
Operating Cash Flow	6.56B	7.37B	8.62B	4.02B	8.63B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.65B	-2.86B	-4.76B	-5.50B	-3.15B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.19B	-3.55B	-2.29B	-2.20B	-8.07B

Target Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 120.80
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TGT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 120.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 114.46, above the 50-day MA of 107.22, and above the 200-day MA of 96.59, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.74 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 65.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TGT.

Target Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
COST	74 Outperform	$445.10B	54.14	30.32%	0.59%	8.34%	9.58%
WMT	73 Outperform	$1.02T	46.85	22.97%	0.85%	4.34%	17.27%
DG	73 Outperform	$33.69B	26.42	16.45%	1.88%	4.86%	-4.51%
BJ	71 Outperform	$13.05B	22.98	29.24%	―	2.82%	3.77%
TGT	63 Neutral	$54.70B	14.66	25.09%	4.79%	-2.16%	-12.66%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
DLTR	61 Neutral	$23.55B	-8.79	20.07%	―	-39.27%	-182.36%

Target Corporate Events

Target Announces Leadership Changes in Operations and Commerce

On February 10, 2026, Target Corporation announced that longtime executive Lisa Roath will become Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, effective February 15, 2026, following a two-decade career at the company in senior merchandising and marketing roles across food, essentials, beauty, and food and beverage. Her appointment, with a base salary of $775,000 and eligibility for leadership-level incentive and equity programs, signals continuity in operational and merchandising strategy by elevating an internal leader deeply familiar with key growth categories.

Also on February 10, 2026, Target said that Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer Rick Gomez will step down from his role on February 15, 2026, transitioning to a non-executive advisor position until April 17, 2026 under a previously signed agreement. He is expected to depart the company on April 17, 2026, under an involuntary termination without cause that entitles him to severance and partial vesting of long-term incentives, underscoring a managed leadership transition with defined financial arrangements for an outgoing senior executive.

The most recent analyst rating on (TGT) stock is a Sell with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Target stock, see the TGT Stock Forecast page.

Target appoints Michael Fiddelke as new CEO, updates leadership

On February 1, 2026, Target implemented a leadership transition in which Michael J. Fiddelke became Chief Executive Officer and a member of the board, with his compensation set on January 31, 2026. Fiddelke will receive a $1.30 million annual base salary, a target annual cash incentive equal to 200% of salary under the Short-Term Incentive Plan, and stock-based awards under the 2020 Long-Term Incentive Plan with a target value of $12.1 million, along with continued eligibility for leadership-level benefits as an at-will employee. Effective the same date, former CEO Brian C. Cornell stepped down from that role to serve as Executive Chair of the Board, and on February 2, 2026, Target agreed to provide him with a $1.12 million base salary, a fiscal 2026 cash incentive opportunity at 200% of salary, and a March 2026 restricted stock unit grant valued at $6.0 million, while his prior equity awards continue to vest and he remains an at-will employee expected to serve as executive chair or special advisor until March 13, 2027, though he is no longer entitled to severance under the company’s Income Continuation Plan.

The most recent analyst rating on (TGT) stock is a Sell with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Target stock, see the TGT Stock Forecast page.

Target Adds Experienced Independent Leaders to Board Committees

On January 21, 2026, Target’s board elected former Nike executive John R. Hoke III to its board of directors, effective March 1, 2026, assigning him to the Compensation & Human Capital Management Committee and the Governance & Sustainability Committee, moves that bring deep design, brand, and innovation expertise into Target’s governance structure. On the same date, the board also elected former HanesBrands CEO and ex-Walmart Chief Merchandising Officer Stephen B. Bratspies as a director, effective April 1, 2026, appointing him to the Audit & Risk Committee and the Infrastructure & Finance Committee, thereby strengthening Target’s oversight with seasoned retail, merchandising, and operational leadership; both appointees were confirmed as independent directors with no related-party transactions and will receive standard non-employee director compensation.

The most recent analyst rating on (TGT) stock is a Hold with a $120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Target stock, see the TGT Stock Forecast page.