Want to see TGT full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Target
(NYSE:TGT)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$173.00
▲(26.48% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:08/20/26
The score reflects improving financial trajectory led by a sharp rebound in free cash flow and recovering margins, but tempered by elevated leverage and an incomplete return to prior-cycle profitability. Technicals are supportive with the stock trading well above key moving averages, though momentum is somewhat stretched. Valuation is broadly reasonable with a mid-teens P/E and a nearly 3% dividend yield, and the earnings call was constructive with raised guidance, partially offset by the one-time nature of tariff-refund-driven upside and ongoing category/SG&A pressures.
Positive Factors
Omnichannel and Marketplace Growth
Strong digital, same-day delivery, and marketplace growth broadens Target’s customer reach and improves convenience. Using stores as fulfillment hubs and expanding Target Plus can support durable sales growth and diversify future revenue streams.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Debt exceeding equity leaves Target more exposed to earnings volatility than an ideally capitalized retailer. Higher leverage can constrain financial flexibility and make it harder to absorb sustained margin pressure or unexpected operating setbacks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Omnichannel and Marketplace Growth
Strong digital, same-day delivery, and marketplace growth broadens Target’s customer reach and improves convenience. Using stores as fulfillment hubs and expanding Target Plus can support durable sales growth and diversify future revenue streams.
Read all positive factors
Target Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Total Store Count
Reflects the overall number of stores, providing insight into the company's expansion strategy and market presence.
Reflects the overall number of stores, providing insight into the company's expansion strategy and market presence.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyTarget (TGT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$69.26B
Dividend Yield2.88%
Average Volume (3M)4.32M
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.4
Beta (1Y)0.50
Revenue Growth1.95%
EPS Growth12.49%
CountryUS
Employees415,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryDiscount Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)9.68
Shares Outstanding454,191,100
10 Day Avg. Volume3,523,722
30 Day Avg. Volume4,323,645
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.57
Price to Book (P/B)2.96
Price to Sales (P/S)0.46
P/FCF Ratio16.89
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$165.35Price Target Upside20.88% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering29
EPS Forecast (FY)8.52
Revenue Forecast (FY)$109.08B
Target Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Target Corp. engages in the operation and ownership of general merchandise stores. It offers food and general merchandise, clothing and household goods, electronics, and toys. Its brands include A New Day, All in Motion, Art Class, Auden, AVA & VI...
How the Company Makes Money
Target primarily makes money by selling merchandise to consumers through its stores and digital channels, generating revenue at the point of sale across its major product categories (apparel/accessories, beauty/personal care, home, electronics, to...
Target Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 19, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a clear improvement in top-line trends, category momentum (notably Food, Fun101, Beauty, and toys), strong digital and loyalty growth, improved fulfillment metrics, and raised guidance — all supported by strategic investments in stores, remodels, supply chain and AI. However, a meaningful portion of margin and EPS upside in the quarter was driven by a large one-time tariff refund ($994M pretax / $1.65 EPS), apparel and home remain underperforming and SG&A is rising. Management emphasized that underlying performance excluding refunds is healthy (adjusted EPS ex-refunds up ~20% in Q2) and that they are early in a multi-year transformation. Overall, the positives and momentum reported materially outweigh the caveats and one-time benefits, though sustainable improvement will depend on continued execution across apparel, home, inventory consistency and disciplined capital deployment.Positive Updates
Revenue and Comparable Sales Growth
Net sales of $26.5 billion, up 5.3% year-over-year; comparable sales +3.8% (store comps +2.7%, digital comps +8.7%); traffic growth +3.6% with average ticket roughly flat.
Negative Updates
Heavy Dependence on Tariff Refunds for Margin/Earnings Boost
Q2 included a $994 million pretax IEEPA tariff refund recorded as a reduction of Cost of Sales; tariff refunds contributed $1.65 to EPS and accounted for ~3.7 percentage points of gross margin improvement. Management noted the majority of refunds recognized, with only some additional refunds expected — creating comparability and sustainability questions.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Comparable Sales Growth
Net sales of $26.5 billion, up 5.3% year-over-year; comparable sales +3.8% (store comps +2.7%, digital comps +8.7%); traffic growth +3.6% with average ticket roughly flat.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Target raised its full‑year outlook, now expecting net sales to grow around 5% (up 1 percentage point from the prior outlook) and full‑year operating margin (excluding IEEPA tariff refunds) to be roughly 0.5 percentage points higher than last year’s adjusted 4.6% rate; EPS guidance was increased from $7.50–$8.50 to $9.90–$10.90 (the updated range includes a $1.65 benefit from Q2 tariff refunds, which were a ~$994 million pretax reduction of cost of sales, and excluding those refunds the midpoint is about $0.75 higher than the prior midpoint), management reiterated it expects ~ $5.0 billion of CapEx for the year ($2.4 billion deployed YTD, up ~30%), paid $518 million of dividends in Q2 (just over $1.0 billion YTD) while targeting a longer‑term ~40% payout ratio, and said it expects capacity to resume share repurchases in H2 subject to operating results, cash generation and maintaining its middle‑A credit ratings.Target Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 107.70B | 104.78B | 106.57B | 107.41B | 109.12B | 106.00B |
| Gross Profit | 31.56B | 29.27B | 30.06B | 29.58B | 26.81B | 31.04B |
| EBITDA | 8.48B | 8.35B | 8.65B | 8.60B | 6.60B | 11.97B |
| Net Income | 4.39B | 3.71B | 4.09B | 4.14B | 2.78B | 6.95B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 61.23B | 59.49B | 57.77B | 55.36B | 53.34B | 53.81B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.41B | 5.49B | 4.76B | 3.81B | 2.23B | 5.91B |
| Total Debt | 4.47B | 20.29B | 19.88B | 19.65B | 19.07B | 16.47B |
| Total Liabilities | 43.39B | 43.33B | 43.10B | 41.92B | 42.10B | 40.98B |
| Stockholders Equity | 17.84B | 16.16B | 14.67B | 13.43B | 11.23B | 12.83B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 6.96B | 2.83B | 4.48B | 3.81B | -1.51B | 5.08B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 8.72B | 6.56B | 7.37B | 8.62B | 4.02B | 8.63B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.19B | -3.65B | -2.86B | -4.76B | -5.50B | -3.15B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.46B | -2.19B | -3.55B | -2.29B | -2.20B | -8.07B |
Target Technical Analysis
Positive
136.78
Price Trends
138.63
Positive
130.86
Positive
116.20
Positive
Market Momentum
5.17
Negative
72.29
Negative
65.26
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TGT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 136.78 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 147.40, below the 50-day MA of 138.63, and above the 200-day MA of 116.20, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 5.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.29 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TGT.
Target Risk Analysis
Target disclosed 17 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Target reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Target Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $25.07B | 20.57 | 35.90% | ― | -19.68% | ― | |
80 Outperform | $426.34B | 48.07 | 28.27% | 0.59% | 9.23% | 12.69% | |
73 Outperform | $11.84B | 20.96 | 26.59% | ― | 5.92% | 0.80% | |
71 Outperform | $916.77B | 40.11 | 23.92% | 0.88% | 5.87% | 21.68% | |
68 Neutral | $69.26B | 16.43 | 21.74% | 3.33% | 1.95% | 12.49% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
62 Neutral | $26.66B | 17.20 | 18.65% | 2.01% | 4.72% | 35.43% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
TGT
Target
159.00
64.15
67.63%
COST
Costco
956.99
-31.81
-3.22%
DG
Dollar General
122.31
9.75
8.66%
DLTR
Dollar Tree
131.84
18.49
16.31%
WMT
Walmart
114.30
12.34
12.11%
BJ
Bj's Wholesale Club Holdings
91.79
-15.55
-14.49%
Target Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Target Boosts Liquidity with New Revolving Credit Facility
Positive
Aug 14, 2026
On August 14, 2026, Target entered into a new five-year $4.0 billion unsecured revolving credit facility with a syndicate of major banks, replacing and consolidating its previous credit arrangements. The agreement, which can be increased by up to ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Target strengthens board with Joe DePinto appointment
Positive
Jul 22, 2026
On July 18, 2026, Target’s board elected former 7-Eleven President CEO Joe DePinto as a director, with his appointment effective August 1, 2026, and named him to the Audit Risk Committee and the Infrastructure Finance Committee. DePinto, ...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Target Shareholders Reaffirm Board, Auditor and Pay Structure
Positive
Jun 12, 2026
At its June 10, 2026 annual meeting of shareholders, Target Corporation secured strong investor backing for all 12 director nominees and ratified Ernst Young LLP as its independent auditor for fiscal 2026, while also gaining advisory approval of ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.