Target Corp (TGT)
NYSE:TGT
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Target
(NYSE:TGT)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$149.00
▲(16.55% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/13/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (better margins vs. 2023 and a strong free-cash-flow rebound) and solid technical momentum with the stock trading above key moving averages. Valuation is supportive with a ~3.4% dividend yield and mid-teens P/E, while the latest earnings call was constructive on raised sales guidance but tempered by near-term cost headwinds, tougher comps, and still-elevated leverage.
Positive Factors
Omnichannel & Same‑Day Fulfillment
Sustained digital and same‑day growth strengthens Target’s omnichannel moat by increasing visit frequency, raising basket size and utilizing stores as low‑cost fulfillment hubs. Higher third‑party GMV and same‑day scale drive recurring revenue and improve long‑run margin mix.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Meaningful leverage limits balance‑sheet flexibility and raises vulnerability to macro shocks. Even with improvement, debt burdens constrain aggressive buybacks or M&A and increase interest exposure, making downside recovery slower if revenue softness recurs.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Omnichannel & Same‑Day Fulfillment
Sustained digital and same‑day growth strengthens Target’s omnichannel moat by increasing visit frequency, raising basket size and utilizing stores as low‑cost fulfillment hubs. Higher third‑party GMV and same‑day scale drive recurring revenue and improve long‑run margin mix.
Read all positive factors
Target Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Total Store Count
Reflects the overall number of stores, providing insight into the company's expansion strategy and market presence.
Reflects the overall number of stores, providing insight into the company's expansion strategy and market presence.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyTarget (TGT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$59.38B
Dividend Yield4.79%
Average Volume (3M)5.56M
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.2
Beta (1Y)0.62
Revenue Growth0.47%
EPS Growth-16.65%
CountryUS
Employees440,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryDiscount Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.61
Shares Outstanding454,191,100
10 Day Avg. Volume4,332,680
30 Day Avg. Volume5,556,778
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.57
Price to Book (P/B)2.96
Price to Sales (P/S)0.46
P/FCF Ratio16.89
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.24
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.69
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.45
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.14
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$135.14Price Target Upside5.71% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering27
EPS Forecast (FY)8.39
Revenue Forecast (FY)$108.86B
Target Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Target Corporation operates as a prominent general merchandise retailer throughout the United States. Its extensive product range includes a wide array of food items like perishables, dry groceries, dairy, and frozen goods, alongside apparel, acce...
How the Company Makes Money
Target primarily makes money by selling merchandise to consumers through its stores and digital channels, generating revenue at the point of sale across its major product categories (apparel/accessories, beauty/personal care, home, electronics, to...
Target Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 20, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Cautiously positive. The quarter delivered stronger‑than‑expected top‑line performance, meaningful digital momentum, improved gross margin and inventory productivity, plus early merchandising proof points and expanded network capacity. However, GAAP EPS declined, SG&A and operating margins remain pressured by investments and prior‑year distortions, some categories (home and apparel) have not yet recovered, and the company faces tougher comps and near‑term cost headwinds. Management is pursuing an ambitious multi‑year merchandising and operational overhaul, and while early signals are encouraging, execution risk and macro uncertainty remain.Positive Updates
Top-Line Growth and Comparable Sales
Q1 net sales of $25.4 billion, up 6.7% year-over-year and 3.7% versus two years ago; comparable sales increased 5.6%, driven primarily by a 4.4% increase in traffic.
Negative Updates
GAAP EPS Decline and Earnings Mix
Reported Q1 GAAP and adjusted EPS of $1.71; GAAP EPS down 24% versus prior year, though adjusted EPS rose 32% versus prior year adjusted — highlighting continued noise between GAAP and adjusted metrics.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Top-Line Growth and Comparable Sales
Q1 net sales of $25.4 billion, up 6.7% year-over-year and 3.7% versus two years ago; comparable sales increased 5.6%, driven primarily by a 4.4% increase in traffic.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Target updated FY2026 guidance, now planning full‑year net sales growth centered around 4% (up ~2 percentage points from its prior range) and expects to finish the year near the high end of its previously communicated EPS range of $750–$850 million after a stronger‑than‑expected Q1 (Q1 net sales $25.4B; comps +5.6%; 2‑yr +3.7%; traffic +4.4%). Q1 operating metrics included first‑party digital sales ~+9% with same‑day delivery +27% and Target Plus GMV ~+60%; gross margin ~29% (+~80 bps YoY); SG&A rate 21.9% (adjusted SG&A growth ~7%); operating margin 4.5%; GAAP and adjusted EPS $1.71 (GAAP -24% YoY; adjusted +32% YoY). Management warned of a tougher Q2 comp (nearly 2 percentage points vs. last year’s Nintendo Switch 2 launch), expects cost headwinds more pronounced in H1 that moderate in H2, is investing ~$5B in CapEx for the year (Q1 CapEx ≈ $1B), paid $516M in Q1 dividends, opened 7 stores (including the 2,000th) and plans >30 openings plus 100+ remodels, and noted inventory productivity improvement (turns +>10% YoY) while monitoring freight and maintaining middle‑A credit rating.Target Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 106.38B | 104.78B | 106.57B | 107.41B | 109.12B | 106.00B |
| Gross Profit | 29.93B | 29.27B | 30.06B | 29.58B | 26.81B | 31.04B |
| EBITDA | 8.03B | 8.35B | 8.65B | 8.60B | 6.60B | 11.97B |
| Net Income | 3.45B | 3.71B | 4.09B | 4.14B | 2.78B | 6.95B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 58.01B | 59.49B | 57.77B | 55.36B | 53.34B | 53.81B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.53B | 5.49B | 4.76B | 3.81B | 2.23B | 5.91B |
| Total Debt | 18.83B | 20.29B | 19.88B | 19.65B | 19.07B | 16.47B |
| Total Liabilities | 41.62B | 43.33B | 43.10B | 41.92B | 42.10B | 40.98B |
| Stockholders Equity | 16.39B | 16.16B | 14.67B | 13.43B | 11.23B | 12.83B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.13B | 2.83B | 4.48B | 3.81B | -1.51B | 5.08B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 7.00B | 6.56B | 7.37B | 8.62B | 4.02B | 8.63B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.90B | -3.65B | -2.86B | -4.76B | -5.50B | -3.15B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.46B | -2.19B | -3.55B | -2.29B | -2.20B | -8.07B |
Target Technical Analysis
Positive
127.84
Price Trends
125.87
Positive
120.07
Positive
105.83
Positive
Market Momentum
1.88
Negative
55.74
Neutral
57.78
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TGT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 127.84 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 127.54, above the 50-day MA of 125.87, and above the 200-day MA of 105.83, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.88 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TGT.
Target Risk Analysis
Target disclosed 17 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Target reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Target Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $59.38B | 17.20 | 21.74% | 4.79% | 0.47% | -16.65% | |
73 Outperform | $421.95B | 47.79 | 28.27% | 0.59% | 9.23% | 12.69% | |
68 Neutral | $21.46B | 17.08 | 35.90% | ― | -19.68% | ― | |
67 Neutral | $932.53B | 40.50 | 24.26% | 0.85% | 5.87% | 21.68% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
62 Neutral | $25.03B | 15.99 | 18.65% | 1.88% | 4.72% | 35.43% | |
61 Neutral | $10.88B | 19.19 | 26.59% | ― | 5.92% | 0.80% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
TGT
Target
130.74
38.26
41.37%
COST
Costco
951.45
-47.41
-4.75%
DG
Dollar General
113.45
0.79
0.70%
DLTR
Dollar Tree
111.65
11.14
11.08%
WMT
Walmart
117.18
20.12
20.73%
BJ
Bj's Wholesale Club Holdings
85.22
-29.59
-25.77%
Target Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Target Shareholders Reaffirm Board, Auditor and Pay Structure
Positive
Jun 12, 2026
At its June 10, 2026 annual meeting of shareholders, Target Corporation secured strong investor backing for all 12 director nominees and ratified Ernst Young LLP as its independent auditor for fiscal 2026, while also gaining advisory approval of ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.