Target Corp (TGT)
NYSE:TGT
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Target
(NYSE:TGT)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$142.00
▲(11.08% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/20/26
The score is driven primarily by stabilizing financial performance (better margins vs. 2023 and a sharp free-cash-flow rebound) and supportive valuation (low P/E with a solid dividend). Technicals add a positive backdrop with an uptrend and moderate momentum, while the latest earnings call is cautiously positive due to raised sales outlook and strong Q1 comps, tempered by near-term cost headwinds and ongoing margin pressure.
Positive Factors
Omnichannel & digital momentum
Sustained digital growth and same‑day fulfillment expand addressable demand and lower friction between online and stores. A fast‑growing Target Plus marketplace diversifies revenue and can boost higher‑margin services and advertising, strengthening long‑term customer engagement and unit economics.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Meaningful leverage limits financial flexibility if sales or margins slip, constraining ability to fund buybacks or cushion shocks. While improved from prior years, debt levels remain a structural vulnerability for a retailer facing category cyclicality and investment needs over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Omnichannel & digital momentum
Sustained digital growth and same‑day fulfillment expand addressable demand and lower friction between online and stores. A fast‑growing Target Plus marketplace diversifies revenue and can boost higher‑margin services and advertising, strengthening long‑term customer engagement and unit economics.
Read all positive factors
Target Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Total Store Count
Reflects the overall number of stores, providing insight into the company's expansion strategy and market presence.
Reflects the overall number of stores, providing insight into the company's expansion strategy and market presence.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyTarget (TGT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$56.97B
Dividend Yield4.79%
Average Volume (3M)5.66M
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.5
Beta (1Y)0.57
Revenue Growth0.47%
EPS Growth-16.65%
CountryUS
Employees440,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryDiscount Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.61
Shares Outstanding454,176,240
10 Day Avg. Volume7,446,350
30 Day Avg. Volume5,663,447
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.57
Price to Book (P/B)2.96
Price to Sales (P/S)0.46
P/FCF Ratio16.89
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.02
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.55
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.15
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.08
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$133.04Price Target Upside4.07% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering27
EPS Forecast (FY)8.38
Revenue Forecast (FY)$108.80B
Target Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Target Corporation operates as a general merchandise retailer in the United States. The company offers food assortments, including perishables, dry grocery, dairy, and frozen items; apparel, accessories, home décor products, electronics, toys, sea...
How the Company Makes Money
Target makes money primarily by selling merchandise to consumers through its stores and e-commerce platforms. Its core revenue stream is retail sales across multiple product categories, with profitability driven by merchandise margin (the spread b...
Target Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 20, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Cautiously positive. The quarter delivered stronger‑than‑expected top‑line performance, meaningful digital momentum, improved gross margin and inventory productivity, plus early merchandising proof points and expanded network capacity. However, GAAP EPS declined, SG&A and operating margins remain pressured by investments and prior‑year distortions, some categories (home and apparel) have not yet recovered, and the company faces tougher comps and near‑term cost headwinds. Management is pursuing an ambitious multi‑year merchandising and operational overhaul, and while early signals are encouraging, execution risk and macro uncertainty remain.Positive Updates
Top-Line Growth and Comparable Sales
Q1 net sales of $25.4 billion, up 6.7% year-over-year and 3.7% versus two years ago; comparable sales increased 5.6%, driven primarily by a 4.4% increase in traffic.
Negative Updates
GAAP EPS Decline and Earnings Mix
Reported Q1 GAAP and adjusted EPS of $1.71; GAAP EPS down 24% versus prior year, though adjusted EPS rose 32% versus prior year adjusted — highlighting continued noise between GAAP and adjusted metrics.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Top-Line Growth and Comparable Sales
Q1 net sales of $25.4 billion, up 6.7% year-over-year and 3.7% versus two years ago; comparable sales increased 5.6%, driven primarily by a 4.4% increase in traffic.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Target updated FY2026 guidance, now planning full‑year net sales growth centered around 4% (up ~2 percentage points from its prior range) and expects to finish the year near the high end of its previously communicated EPS range of $750–$850 million after a stronger‑than‑expected Q1 (Q1 net sales $25.4B; comps +5.6%; 2‑yr +3.7%; traffic +4.4%). Q1 operating metrics included first‑party digital sales ~+9% with same‑day delivery +27% and Target Plus GMV ~+60%; gross margin ~29% (+~80 bps YoY); SG&A rate 21.9% (adjusted SG&A growth ~7%); operating margin 4.5%; GAAP and adjusted EPS $1.71 (GAAP -24% YoY; adjusted +32% YoY). Management warned of a tougher Q2 comp (nearly 2 percentage points vs. last year’s Nintendo Switch 2 launch), expects cost headwinds more pronounced in H1 that moderate in H2, is investing ~$5B in CapEx for the year (Q1 CapEx ≈ $1B), paid $516M in Q1 dividends, opened 7 stores (including the 2,000th) and plans >30 openings plus 100+ remodels, and noted inventory productivity improvement (turns +>10% YoY) while monitoring freight and maintaining middle‑A credit rating.Target Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 105.47B | 104.78B | 106.57B | 107.41B | 109.12B | 106.00B |
| Gross Profit | 27.05B | 26.65B | 30.06B | 29.58B | 26.81B | 31.04B |
| EBITDA | 8.20B | 7.98B | 8.65B | 8.60B | 6.60B | 11.97B |
| Net Income | 3.61B | 3.71B | 4.09B | 4.14B | 2.78B | 6.95B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 58.01B | 59.49B | 57.77B | 55.36B | 53.34B | 53.81B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.53B | 5.49B | 4.76B | 3.81B | 2.23B | 5.91B |
| Total Debt | 4.55B | 20.29B | 19.88B | 19.65B | 19.07B | 16.47B |
| Total Liabilities | 41.62B | 43.33B | 43.10B | 41.92B | 42.10B | 40.98B |
| Stockholders Equity | 16.39B | 16.16B | 14.67B | 13.43B | 11.23B | 12.83B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.16B | 2.83B | 4.48B | 3.81B | -1.51B | 5.08B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 7.00B | 6.56B | 7.37B | 8.62B | 4.02B | 8.63B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.90B | -3.65B | -2.86B | -4.76B | -5.50B | -3.15B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.46B | -2.19B | -3.55B | -2.29B | -2.20B | -8.07B |
Target Technical Analysis
Positive
127.84
Price Trends
122.39
Positive
116.32
Positive
103.36
Positive
Market Momentum
0.72
Negative
57.14
Neutral
78.20
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TGT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 127.84 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 124.87, above the 50-day MA of 122.39, and above the 200-day MA of 103.36, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.72 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TGT.
Target Risk Analysis
Target disclosed 17 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Target reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Target Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $56.97B | 15.52 | 22.76% | 4.79% | 0.47% | -16.65% | |
72 Outperform | $444.95B | 55.55 | 28.81% | 0.59% | 8.40% | 12.18% | |
70 Outperform | $945.12B | 46.52 | 24.26% | 0.85% | 5.87% | 21.68% | |
64 Neutral | $18.25B | 18.87 | 34.83% | ― | -29.62% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
61 Neutral | $10.84B | 21.07 | 25.45% | ― | 5.92% | 0.80% | |
56 Neutral | $22.82B | 20.87 | 18.66% | 1.88% | 5.20% | 34.26% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
TGT
Target
128.33
36.41
39.62%
COST
Costco
1,003.69
-3.78
-0.37%
DG
Dollar General
104.33
8.51
8.88%
DLTR
Dollar Tree
95.87
6.53
7.31%
WMT
Walmart
118.54
22.11
22.92%
BJ
Bj's Wholesale Club Holdings
84.20
-27.83
-24.84%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.