Target (TGT)
NYSE:TGT
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Target
(NYSE:TGT)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$127.00
▲(3.36% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/27/26
The score is led by attractive valuation (low P/E and strong dividend yield) and a moderately positive technical backdrop (price above key longer-term averages with positive MACD). Offsetting these positives, financial performance is steady but constrained by muted growth, still-elevated leverage, and weakening recent cash flow trends. The earnings call adds a modest boost due to funded strategic initiatives and improving early sales signals, but execution risk and tariff uncertainty temper confidence.
Positive Factors
Digital, same-day and loyalty strength
Strong same-day fulfillment, a growing marketplace and highly sticky loyalty cohorts create durable revenue and margin advantages. Higher spend from Circle members and personalization-driven incremental sales support long-term customer lifetime value and recurring revenue streams beyond transient traffic shifts.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
A debt/equity ratio near 1.3x leaves limited financial flexibility for a low-margin retailer. Elevated leverage amplifies downside in margin pressure or demand softness, constrains optionality for further buybacks or dividends, and increases sensitivity to interest-rate or cash-flow swings over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Digital, same-day and loyalty strength
Strong same-day fulfillment, a growing marketplace and highly sticky loyalty cohorts create durable revenue and margin advantages. Higher spend from Circle members and personalization-driven incremental sales support long-term customer lifetime value and recurring revenue streams beyond transient traffic shifts.
Read all positive factors
Target (TGT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$55.64B
Dividend Yield4.79%
Average Volume (3M)5.87M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.8
Beta (1Y)0.52
Revenue Growth-2.16%
EPS Growth-12.66%
CountryUS
Employees440,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryDiscount Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.44
Shares Outstanding452,855,600
10 Day Avg. Volume3,933,217
30 Day Avg. Volume5,874,323
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.57
Price to Book (P/B)2.96
Price to Sales (P/S)0.46
P/FCF Ratio16.89
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.00
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.52
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.92
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.36
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$127.26Price Target Upside3.57% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering26
EPS Forecast (FY)7.99
Revenue Forecast (FY)$106.77B
Target Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Target Corporation operates as a general merchandise retailer in the United States. The company offers food assortments, including perishables, dry grocery, dairy, and frozen items; apparel, accessories, home décor products, electronics, toys, sea...
How the Company Makes Money
Target makes money primarily by selling merchandise to consumers through its stores and e-commerce platforms. Its core revenue stream is retail sales across multiple product categories, with profitability driven by merchandise margin (the spread b...
Target Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Total Store Count
Reflects the overall number of stores, providing insight into the company's expansion strategy and market presence.
Reflects the overall number of stores, providing insight into the company's expansion strategy and market presence.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyTarget Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a constructive and strategic reset: management articulated clear priorities (merchandising authority, guest experience, technology, team/community), backed those priorities with significant funding (>$2B incremental investment and ~$5B CapEx) and highlighted encouraging early top-line and digital/loyalty momentum (same-day delivery +30%, marketplace +30%, doubled Circle360 membership, early category wins). At the same time, the company candidly acknowledged recent underperformance, tariff- and inventory-related pressures in 2025, execution risk from large-scale store and assortment changes, and modest near-term sales guidance (~2% net sales growth). Overall, the positives — funded strategy, measurable initiatives, productivity gains and early sales signals — appear to outweigh the risks, though the plan's success depends heavily on flawless execution and resolution of macro/tariff uncertainty.Positive Updates
Material Incremental Investment and Capital Plan
Target announced more than $2.0 billion of incremental investments in 2026: ~$1.0 billion in additional CapEx (raising full-year CapEx to approximately $5.0 billion, +~$1.0 billion YoY) and ~$1.0 billion reinvested into the P&L to support stores, payroll, marketing and technology. Plans include opening more than 30 new full-size stores and completing more than 130 full-store remodels in 2026 (remodel lifts of ~2–4% in year 1).
Negative Updates
Recent Underperformance and Need to Rebuild Merchandising Authority
Company acknowledged that performance over recent years 'has not met expectations' and that Target 'lost the clarity and discipline' that historically drove strength, particularly in categories like home and apparel which underperformed and require multi-year transformation.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Material Incremental Investment and Capital Plan
Target announced more than $2.0 billion of incremental investments in 2026: ~$1.0 billion in additional CapEx (raising full-year CapEx to approximately $5.0 billion, +~$1.0 billion YoY) and ~$1.0 billion reinvested into the P&L to support stores, payroll, marketing and technology. Plans include opening more than 30 new full-size stores and completing more than 130 full-store remodels in 2026 (remodel lifts of ~2–4% in year 1).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Target provided 2026 guidance calling for net sales to grow around 2% (with a small comparable-sales increase and >1 percentage point of that growth from new stores, Roundel and Target Plus), GAAP and adjusted EPS of $7.50–$8.50 (the midpoint implying ~5–6% adjusted EPS growth vs. 2025), and an adjusted operating income rate about 20 basis points higher than last year’s 4.6% (i.e., roughly ~4.8%); management said it will invest more than $2 billion incremental this year (including ~$1 billion additional CapEx for new stores/remodels and ~$1 billion reinvested in the P&L), with full-year CapEx of approximately $5 billion (+~$1 billion vs. 2025), plans to open >30 new stores and complete >130 full remodels, spend >$1 billion on food & beverage, and fund payroll/training increases (hundreds of millions).Target Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 104.78B | 106.57B | 107.41B | 109.12B | 106.00B |
| Gross Profit | 29.27B | 30.06B | 29.58B | 26.81B | 31.04B |
| EBITDA | 8.01B | 8.65B | 8.60B | 6.60B | 11.97B |
| Net Income | 3.71B | 4.09B | 4.14B | 2.78B | 6.95B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 59.49B | 57.77B | 55.36B | 53.34B | 53.81B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.49B | 4.76B | 3.81B | 2.23B | 5.91B |
| Total Debt | 5.59B | 19.88B | 19.65B | 19.07B | 16.47B |
| Total Liabilities | 43.33B | 43.10B | 41.92B | 42.10B | 40.98B |
| Stockholders Equity | 16.16B | 14.67B | 13.43B | 11.23B | 12.83B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.83B | 4.48B | 3.81B | -1.51B | 5.08B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.56B | 7.37B | 8.62B | 4.02B | 8.63B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.65B | -2.86B | -4.76B | -5.50B | -3.15B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.19B | -3.55B | -2.29B | -2.20B | -8.07B |
Target Technical Analysis
Positive
122.87
Price Trends
117.11
Positive
107.44
Positive
100.44
Positive
Market Momentum
1.52
Positive
58.19
Neutral
40.62
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TGT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 122.87 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 118.94, above the 50-day MA of 117.11, and above the 200-day MA of 100.44, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.52 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.62 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TGT.
Target Risk Analysis
Target disclosed 17 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Target reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Target Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $436.89B | 55.55 | 28.81% | 0.59% | 8.34% | 9.58% | |
68 Neutral | $11.76B | 23.91 | 27.41% | ― | 2.82% | 3.77% | |
67 Neutral | $55.64B | 8.81 | 26.06% | 4.79% | -2.16% | -12.66% | |
67 Neutral | $994.64B | 56.03 | 23.69% | 0.85% | 4.34% | 17.27% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
56 Neutral | $19.99B | 11.56 | 34.83% | ― | -39.27% | -182.36% | |
55 Neutral | $26.77B | 20.87 | 18.66% | 1.88% | 4.86% | -4.51% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
TGT
Target
122.87
36.37
42.05%
COST
Costco
984.75
22.27
2.31%
DG
Dollar General
121.56
33.98
38.80%
DLTR
Dollar Tree
101.33
28.12
38.41%
WMT
Walmart
124.76
34.37
38.03%
BJ
Bj's Wholesale Club Holdings
90.70
-25.13
-21.70%
Target Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Target Announces Leadership Changes in Operations and Commerce
Neutral
Feb 10, 2026
On February 10, 2026, Target Corporation announced that longtime executive Lisa Roath will become Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, effective February 15, 2026, following a two-decade career at the company in senior merchandisi...
Executive/Board Changes
Target appoints Michael Fiddelke as new CEO, updates leadership
Neutral
Feb 5, 2026
On February 1, 2026, Target implemented a leadership transition in which Michael J. Fiddelke became Chief Executive Officer and a member of the board, with his compensation set on January 31, 2026. Fiddelke will receive a $1.30 million annual base...
Executive/Board Changes
Target Adds Experienced Independent Leaders to Board Committees
Positive
Jan 22, 2026
On January 21, 2026, Target’s board elected former Nike executive John R. Hoke III to its board of directors, effective March 1, 2026, assigning him to the Compensation Human Capital Management Committee and the Governance Sustainability C...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.