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Target
(NYSE:TGT)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$168.00
▲(22.82% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:08/19/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (notably the strong rebound in free cash flow and margin repair), supported by strong technical uptrend signals. Valuation is reasonable with a solid dividend yield, while the earnings call adds a positive tilt via raised sales guidance, tempered by leverage and near-term cost and margin pressures.
Positive Factors
Omnichannel and Comparable-Sales Growth
Traffic-led comparable growth alongside digital and same-day gains indicates improving customer engagement across stores and online channels. Using stores as fulfillment hubs can strengthen convenience, support sales productivity, and reinforce Target’s omnichannel differentiation over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Profitability Remains Below Prior-Peak Levels
Although profitability has recovered from the 2023 trough, margins remain well below earlier levels and reported earnings are still pressured. This limits resilience against promotions, shrink, labor, and fulfillment costs, making sustained margin expansion an important execution requirement.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Omnichannel and Comparable-Sales Growth
Traffic-led comparable growth alongside digital and same-day gains indicates improving customer engagement across stores and online channels. Using stores as fulfillment hubs can strengthen convenience, support sales productivity, and reinforce Target’s omnichannel differentiation over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Target Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Total Store Count
Reflects the overall number of stores, providing insight into the company's expansion strategy and market presence.
Reflects the overall number of stores, providing insight into the company's expansion strategy and market presence.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyTarget (TGT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$68.59B
Dividend Yield3%
Average Volume (3M)4.32M
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.8
Beta (1Y)0.54
Revenue Growth0.47%
EPS Growth-16.65%
CountryUS
Employees415,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryDiscount Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)9.68
Shares Outstanding454,191,100
10 Day Avg. Volume3,523,722
30 Day Avg. Volume4,323,645
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.57
Price to Book (P/B)2.96
Price to Sales (P/S)0.46
P/FCF Ratio16.89
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$147.93Price Target Upside8.15% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering29
EPS Forecast (FY)8.52
Revenue Forecast (FY)$109.06B
Target Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Target Corp. engages in the operation and ownership of general merchandise stores. It offers food and general merchandise, clothing and household goods, electronics, and toys. Its brands include A New Day, All in Motion, Art Class, Auden, AVA & VI...
How the Company Makes Money
Target primarily makes money by selling merchandise to consumers through its stores and digital channels, generating revenue at the point of sale across its major product categories (apparel/accessories, beauty/personal care, home, electronics, to...
Target Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 20, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Cautiously positive. The quarter delivered stronger‑than‑expected top‑line performance, meaningful digital momentum, improved gross margin and inventory productivity, plus early merchandising proof points and expanded network capacity. However, GAAP EPS declined, SG&A and operating margins remain pressured by investments and prior‑year distortions, some categories (home and apparel) have not yet recovered, and the company faces tougher comps and near‑term cost headwinds. Management is pursuing an ambitious multi‑year merchandising and operational overhaul, and while early signals are encouraging, execution risk and macro uncertainty remain.Positive Updates
Top-Line Growth and Comparable Sales
Q1 net sales of $25.4 billion, up 6.7% year-over-year and 3.7% versus two years ago; comparable sales increased 5.6%, driven primarily by a 4.4% increase in traffic.
Negative Updates
GAAP EPS Decline and Earnings Mix
Reported Q1 GAAP and adjusted EPS of $1.71; GAAP EPS down 24% versus prior year, though adjusted EPS rose 32% versus prior year adjusted — highlighting continued noise between GAAP and adjusted metrics.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Top-Line Growth and Comparable Sales
Q1 net sales of $25.4 billion, up 6.7% year-over-year and 3.7% versus two years ago; comparable sales increased 5.6%, driven primarily by a 4.4% increase in traffic.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Target updated FY2026 guidance, now planning full‑year net sales growth centered around 4% (up ~2 percentage points from its prior range) and expects to finish the year near the high end of its previously communicated EPS range of $750–$850 million after a stronger‑than‑expected Q1 (Q1 net sales $25.4B; comps +5.6%; 2‑yr +3.7%; traffic +4.4%). Q1 operating metrics included first‑party digital sales ~+9% with same‑day delivery +27% and Target Plus GMV ~+60%; gross margin ~29% (+~80 bps YoY); SG&A rate 21.9% (adjusted SG&A growth ~7%); operating margin 4.5%; GAAP and adjusted EPS $1.71 (GAAP -24% YoY; adjusted +32% YoY). Management warned of a tougher Q2 comp (nearly 2 percentage points vs. last year’s Nintendo Switch 2 launch), expects cost headwinds more pronounced in H1 that moderate in H2, is investing ~$5B in CapEx for the year (Q1 CapEx ≈ $1B), paid $516M in Q1 dividends, opened 7 stores (including the 2,000th) and plans >30 openings plus 100+ remodels, and noted inventory productivity improvement (turns +>10% YoY) while monitoring freight and maintaining middle‑A credit rating.Target Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 107.70B | 104.78B | 106.57B | 107.41B | 109.12B | 106.00B |
| Gross Profit | 15.24B | 29.27B | 30.06B | 29.58B | 26.81B | 31.04B |
| EBITDA | 7.67B | 8.35B | 8.65B | 8.60B | 6.60B | 11.97B |
| Net Income | 4.39B | 3.71B | 4.09B | 4.14B | 2.78B | 6.95B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 61.23B | 59.49B | 57.77B | 55.36B | 53.34B | 53.81B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.41B | 5.49B | 4.76B | 3.81B | 2.23B | 5.91B |
| Total Debt | 4.47B | 20.29B | 19.88B | 19.65B | 19.07B | 16.47B |
| Total Liabilities | 43.39B | 43.33B | 43.10B | 41.92B | 42.10B | 40.98B |
| Stockholders Equity | 17.84B | 16.16B | 14.67B | 13.43B | 11.23B | 12.83B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 6.96B | 2.83B | 4.48B | 3.81B | -1.51B | 5.08B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 8.72B | 6.56B | 7.37B | 8.62B | 4.02B | 8.63B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.19B | -3.65B | -2.86B | -4.76B | -5.50B | -3.15B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.46B | -2.19B | -3.55B | -2.29B | -2.20B | -8.07B |
Target Technical Analysis
Positive
136.78
Price Trends
137.91
Positive
130.42
Positive
115.86
Positive
Market Momentum
4.82
Negative
65.05
Neutral
65.24
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TGT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 136.78 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 146.29, below the 50-day MA of 137.91, and above the 200-day MA of 115.86, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.82 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.24 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TGT.
Target Risk Analysis
Target disclosed 17 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Target reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Target Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $24.89B | 20.21 | 35.90% | ― | -19.68% | ― | |
80 Outperform | $422.86B | 47.89 | 28.27% | 0.59% | 9.23% | 12.69% | |
76 Outperform | $909.85B | 40.12 | 23.92% | 0.88% | 5.87% | 21.68% | |
73 Outperform | $12.06B | 21.24 | 26.59% | ― | 5.92% | 0.80% | |
71 Outperform | $68.59B | 19.84 | 21.74% | 3.33% | 0.47% | -16.65% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
62 Neutral | $26.49B | 17.17 | 18.65% | 2.01% | 4.72% | 35.43% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
TGT
Target
152.48
51.22
50.58%
COST
Costco
961.35
-13.81
-1.42%
DG
Dollar General
120.84
10.31
9.32%
DLTR
Dollar Tree
130.48
18.00
16.00%
WMT
Walmart
115.20
14.52
14.42%
BJ
Bj's Wholesale Club Holdings
92.69
-11.85
-11.34%
Target Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Target Boosts Liquidity with New Revolving Credit Facility
Positive
Aug 14, 2026
On August 14, 2026, Target entered into a new five-year $4.0 billion unsecured revolving credit facility with a syndicate of major banks, replacing and consolidating its previous credit arrangements. The agreement, which can be increased by up to ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Target strengthens board with Joe DePinto appointment
Positive
Jul 22, 2026
On July 18, 2026, Target’s board elected former 7-Eleven President CEO Joe DePinto as a director, with his appointment effective August 1, 2026, and named him to the Audit Risk Committee and the Infrastructure Finance Committee. DePinto, ...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Target Shareholders Reaffirm Board, Auditor and Pay Structure
Positive
Jun 12, 2026
At its June 10, 2026 annual meeting of shareholders, Target Corporation secured strong investor backing for all 12 director nominees and ratified Ernst Young LLP as its independent auditor for fiscal 2026, while also gaining advisory approval of ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.