Bj's Wholesale Club Holdings (BJ)
NYSE:BJ
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Bj's Wholesale Club Holdings
(NYSE:BJ)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$107.00
▲(16.22% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:03/06/26
The score is driven primarily by solid (but not exceptional) financial fundamentals with thin margins and weaker free-cash conversion, partially offset by a constructive earnings outlook emphasizing membership/digital strength, expansion execution, and buybacks. Technicals are broadly neutral, while valuation (P/E ~23.9 with no dividend yield provided) provides limited downside support.
Positive Factors
High-quality recurring membership revenue
A large, growing membership base with a stable 90% tenured renewal rate and rising fee income creates durable, predictable recurring revenue. High renewal and higher-tier penetration (42%) increase customer lifetime value and cushion core cash flow versus transactional retail swings.
Negative Factors
Thin operating margins
EBIT margins near 3% leave limited room to absorb input inflation, wage pressure, or deliberate price investments. With low structural margins, small adverse mix or cost moves can materially depress earnings, making profitability highly sensitive to execution over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High-quality recurring membership revenue
A large, growing membership base with a stable 90% tenured renewal rate and rising fee income creates durable, predictable recurring revenue. High renewal and higher-tier penetration (42%) increase customer lifetime value and cushion core cash flow versus transactional retail swings.
Read all positive factors
Bj's Wholesale Club Holdings (BJ) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$11.99B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.99M
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.9
Beta (1Y)-0.06
Revenue Growth4.66%
EPS Growth8.98%
CountryUS
Employees33,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryDiscount Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.41
Shares Outstanding129,676,590
10 Day Avg. Volume2,079,927
30 Day Avg. Volume1,988,143
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.29
Price to Book (P/B)5.52
Price to Sales (P/S)0.57
P/FCF Ratio36.64
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.21
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.68
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.64
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$107.58Price Target Upside16.85% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)4.52
Revenue Forecast (FY)$22.71B
Bj's Wholesale Club Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates warehouse clubs on the east coast of the United States. It provides perishable, general merchandise, gasoline, and other ancillary services. The company sells its product...
How the Company Makes Money
BJ's Wholesale Club generates revenue primarily through membership fees and product sales. Membership fees are a significant revenue stream, as customers must pay an annual fee to shop at BJ's clubs, which provides access to discounted prices on b...
Bj's Wholesale Club Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Type
Categorizes revenue streams, offering a view of the company's diverse income sources and identifying which areas drive growth or present risks.
Categorizes revenue streams, offering a view of the company's diverse income sources and identifying which areas drive growth or present risks.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyBj's Wholesale Club Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 21, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call reflected solid top-line growth, strong membership gains, accelerating digital adoption, successful new-club openings, and a healthy balance sheet with active buybacks — all indicating positive momentum and confident long-term execution. Offsetting items included modest margin pressure (mix and deliberate price investments), slight SG&A deleverage tied to expansion, category variability (home/seasonal), and macro/tariff uncertainties that could affect near-term cadence. Overall the positives (membership growth, digital penetration, new-club performance, and cash generation) meaningfully outweigh the headwinds.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Q4 net sales of ~$5.4B, up 5.5% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Merchandise Margin Pressure
Merchandise gross margin rate (excluding gasoline) declined approximately 50 basis points year-over-year in Q4, primarily driven by mix shift toward general merchandise and consumer electronics (lower-margin categories) and by deliberate price/value investments in grocery.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Q4 net sales of ~$5.4B, up 5.5% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided fiscal 2026 to merchandise comparable sales excluding gas growth of 2%–3% and adjusted EPS of $4.40–$4.60, with an expected effective tax rate of ~27% for the year (lowest in Q1 due to a stock‑comp windfall); they expect slight SG&A deleverage driven by accelerated new‑club openings and continued outsized depreciation, remain on track to open 25–30 new clubs over 2025–2026, and noted net leverage of 0.4x and roughly $750 million remaining under the share‑repurchase authorization. They also said membership fee income growth should moderate as they lap the January 2025 fee increase, plan further supply‑chain investments (including an automated Ohio DC in 2027), and are not modeling potential tariff impacts into current assumptions.Bj's Wholesale Club Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 21.46B | 20.50B | 19.97B | 19.32B | 16.67B |
| Gross Profit | 4.00B | 3.76B | 3.64B | 3.43B | 3.08B |
| EBITDA | 1.13B | 1.03B | 1.03B | 933.26M | 788.68M |
| Net Income | 578.38M | 534.42M | 523.74M | 513.18M | 426.65M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 7.51B | 7.07B | 6.68B | 6.35B | 5.67B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 46.24M | 28.27M | 36.05M | 33.91M | 45.44M |
| Total Debt | 2.61B | 2.84B | 2.98B | 3.12B | 2.96B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.31B | 5.22B | 5.22B | 5.30B | 5.02B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.20B | 1.85B | 1.46B | 1.05B | 648.11M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 331.00M | 312.89M | 251.81M | 417.63M | 527.14M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.03B | 900.87M | 718.88M | 788.16M | 831.65M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -702.34M | -589.57M | -454.76M | -747.06M | -304.51M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -309.74M | -319.08M | -261.98M | -52.63M | -525.23M |
Bj's Wholesale Club Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
92.07
Price Trends
97.17
Negative
94.87
Negative
96.60
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.48
Positive
41.02
Neutral
24.66
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BJ, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 92.07 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 95.55, below the 50-day MA of 97.17, and below the 200-day MA of 96.60, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.48 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.66 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BJ.
Bj's Wholesale Club Holdings Risk Analysis
Bj's Wholesale Club Holdings disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Bj's Wholesale Club Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Bj's Wholesale Club Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $1.04T | 56.03 | 23.69% | 0.85% | 4.73% | 13.47% | |
72 Outperform | $441.77B | 55.55 | 28.81% | 0.59% | 8.40% | 12.18% | |
70 Outperform | $5.09B | 19.75 | 13.30% | ― | 16.62% | 20.49% | |
68 Neutral | $11.99B | 23.91 | 27.41% | ― | 4.66% | 8.98% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
56 Neutral | $19.04B | 11.56 | 34.83% | ― | -29.62% | ― | |
55 Neutral | $25.63B | 18.52 | 18.66% | 1.88% | 5.20% | 34.26% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
BJ
Bj's Wholesale Club Holdings
92.45
-26.93
-22.56%
COST
Costco
995.75
-5.76
-0.58%
DG
Dollar General
116.37
25.33
27.82%
DLTR
Dollar Tree
96.51
12.07
14.29%
WMT
Walmart
130.08
32.12
32.79%
OLLI
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding
83.57
-26.86
-24.32%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.