Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding (OLLI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.78B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.00M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 36.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.69
• Revenue Growth: 10.14%
• EPS Growth: 5.01%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,900
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 49
• Industry: Discount Stores
• EPS (TTM): 0.99
• Shares Outstanding: 61,341,120
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,441,042
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,000,492
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.14
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.79
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.42
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 28.89
• 1Y Price Target: $144.53
• Price Target Upside: 13.95% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $146.00 ▲(15.11% Upside)

Ollie's Bargain Outlet's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and positive earnings call highlights, including robust sales growth and store expansion. However, the high P/E ratio and mixed technical indicators temper the score, suggesting caution for potential investors.

Positive Factors

Digital Strategy

Enhanced digital strategies have notably increased recruitment of younger customers, contributing to sales growth.

Expansion Strategy

The company plans significant expansion with 85 net new stores, indicating a 15% unit growth.

Financial Performance

Ollie's reported a strong Q2 performance with a 5% same-store sales growth, supported by broad-based strength across new and existing customers.

Negative Factors

Market Saturation Risk

Ollie's is well-positioned to capitalize on competitor closures by increasing store openings, raising their store opening guidance for the year.

Valuation Concerns

Despite strong execution and positioning, valuation remains high and upside potential looks limited.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. is a leading retailer in the off-price sector, specializing in the sale of closeout merchandise and excess inventory. Founded in 1982 and headquartered in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, the company operates a chain of discount retail stores across the United States. Ollie's offers a wide range of products, including food, household goods, hardware, and seasonal items, all at significantly reduced prices compared to traditional retailers.

How the Company Makes Money

Ollie's generates revenue primarily through the sale of discounted merchandise in its retail stores. The company's revenue model is based on purchasing overstock and closeout items directly from manufacturers and wholesalers at a deep discount, which allows them to pass on savings to consumers while maintaining healthy profit margins. Key revenue streams include sales from a diverse array of product categories, including food, cleaning supplies, and home goods. Additionally, Ollie's benefits from a loyal customer base that seeks value and variety, which drives repeat business. The company's strategic partnerships with suppliers also enable it to secure favorable pricing and exclusive deals on inventory, further enhancing its profit potential.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ollie's Bargain Outlet exhibits strong financial performance with consistent revenue and profit growth, efficient operations, and solid cash flow management. The financial stability is emphasized by a conservative leverage strategy, although the increase in debt warrants attention.

Income Statement

Ollie's Bargain Outlet has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with a notable Revenue Growth Rate of 11.3% in the latest annual period. The Gross Profit Margin stands strong at 40.3% TTM, and the Net Profit Margin is healthy at 8.6% TTM. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also solid, indicating efficient operational performance. However, a slight decrease in EBIT from the previous full year suggests room for operational efficiency improvement.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a strong balance sheet with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.38 TTM, highlighting a conservative leverage strategy. Return on Equity is robust at 11.6% TTM, indicating effective use of equity capital. The Equity Ratio of 63.9% TTM suggests financial stability. However, the increase in total debt over the years may pose a potential risk if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

Ollie's Bargain Outlet exhibits strong cash flow management, with a positive Free Cash Flow growth of 11.4% from the previous period. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is favorable at 1.07 TTM, indicating efficient conversion of net income into cash. The company also maintains a positive Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio, highlighting strong cash generation capabilities. However, the slight decrease in operating cash flow compared to the previous year should be monitored.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.34B	2.27B	2.10B	1.83B	1.75B	1.81B
Gross Profit	942.13M	914.45M	832.37M	656.09M	681.25M	723.37M
EBITDA	307.28M	293.46M	277.42M	162.57M	239.16M	299.96M
Net Income	200.98M	199.76M	181.44M	102.79M	157.46M	242.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.71B	2.56B	2.29B	2.04B	1.97B	2.01B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	369.51M	428.67M	353.24M	270.76M	246.98M	447.13M
Total Debt	648.69M	564.87M	488.75M	441.18M	431.93M	387.17M
Total Liabilities	977.17M	865.84M	786.36M	682.03M	684.46M	670.97M
Stockholders Equity	1.73B	1.70B	1.51B	1.36B	1.29B	1.33B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	95.54M	106.90M	130.09M	62.68M	10.04M	330.68M
Operating Cash Flow	215.97M	227.45M	254.50M	114.35M	45.03M	361.25M
Investing Cash Flow	-205.09M	-255.34M	-150.09M	-111.45M	-31.83M	-30.45M
Financing Cash Flow	-24.11M	-33.25M	-48.74M	-39.27M	-213.35M	26.37M

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 126.84
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OLLI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 126.84 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 134.13, below the 50-day MA of 132.42, and above the 200-day MA of 113.97, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.78 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.21 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for OLLI.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MHO	80 Outperform	$3.89B	8.08	17.56%	―	7.39%	-1.37%
M	77 Outperform	$3.59B	6.69	12.92%	5.38%	-3.77%	4607.98%
OLLI	73 Outperform	$7.78B	36.78	12.63%	―	10.14%	5.01%
DG	71 Outperform	$23.94B	20.12	15.60%	2.17%	4.98%	-15.98%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$20.44B	14.73	-2.94%	3.07%	2.04%	-6.12%
TBBB	62 Neutral	$3.09B	105.94	-3.15%	―	―	―
DLTR	60 Neutral	$22.78B	―	19.25%	―	-20.46%	-202.26%

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Corporate Events

Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holds Annual Meeting, Elects Directors

On June 12, 2025, Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holding held its Annual Meeting where stockholders approved the election of ten directors to the Board, the compensation of the company’s named executive officers, and the 2025 Plan to succeed the expiring 2015 equity incentive plan. Additionally, the appointment of KPMG LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending January 31, 2026, was ratified.