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Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding (OLLI)
NASDAQ:OLLI
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Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding
(NASDAQ:OLLI)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$127.00
▲(9.56% Upside)
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding receives a solid score due to its strong financial performance and positive earnings call, which highlight growth in store openings and membership. However, technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, and the valuation suggests the stock is relatively expensive, which tempers the overall score.
Positive Factors
Store Expansion
Ollie's aggressive store expansion strategy enhances its market presence and potential revenue streams, supporting long-term growth.
Loyalty Program Growth
The growth in the loyalty program indicates strong customer retention and engagement, which can drive repeat sales and brand loyalty.
Cash Position
A strong cash position with low debt enhances financial flexibility, enabling strategic investments and resilience against economic downturns.
Negative Factors
Gross Margin Pressures
Slight declines in gross margin due to higher supply chain costs could pressure profitability if not managed effectively long-term.
Average Ticket Price Decline
A declining average ticket price may indicate challenges in maintaining pricing power, potentially impacting revenue growth.
Impact of Tariffs
Ongoing tariff-related costs could erode margins and necessitate price adjustments, impacting competitiveness and profitability.
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding (OLLI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.11B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.32M
Price to Earnings (P/E)32.1
Beta (1Y)0.73
Revenue Growth12.58%
EPS Growth7.80%
CountryUS
Employees5,900
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryDiscount Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.75
Shares Outstanding61,332,550
10 Day Avg. Volume1,021,423
30 Day Avg. Volume1,319,612
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio3.15
Price to Book (P/B)4.03
Price to Sales (P/S)3.01
P/FCF Ratio63.98
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.12
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.13
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.69
Enterprise Value/Ebitda23.39
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$144.46Price Target Upside24.62% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)3.87
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.65B
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionOllie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. operates as a retailer of brand name merchandise. The company offers housewares, bed and bath, food, floor coverings, health and beauty aids, books and stationery, toys, and electronics; and other products, including hardware, candy, clothing, sporting goods, pet and lawn, and garden products. It provides its products primarily under the Ollie's, Ollie's Bargain Outlet, Good Stuff Cheap, Ollie's Army, Real Brands Real Cheap!, Real Brands! Real Bargains, Sarasota Breeze, Steelton Tools, American Way, and Middleton Home names. As of August 3, 2022, it operated 450 stores in 29 states throughout half of the United States. The company was formerly known as Bargain Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. in March 2015. Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.
How the Company Makes MoneyOllie's Bargain Outlet generates revenue primarily through the sale of its discounted merchandise in its retail stores. The company's revenue model is centered on purchasing overstock and closeout inventory from manufacturers, wholesalers, and other retailers at a lower cost, which it then sells to consumers at reduced prices. Key revenue streams include sales from core categories such as food, health and beauty, home goods, and seasonal products. Additionally, Ollie's benefits from a strategic partnership with suppliers that allows it to acquire inventory at favorable prices. The company's emphasis on value and variety attracts a loyal customer base, contributing to consistent sales growth.
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Dec 09, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a strong performance with significant accomplishments in store openings, membership growth, and financial metrics. However, there are challenges related to gross margins and tariffs that need to be addressed. Overall, the company's strategic initiatives and financial health indicate positive momentum moving forward.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Store Openings
Opened 32 new stores in Q3 and 86 for the year, marking an 18% growth year-over-year. This is a record for Ollie's and demonstrates the company's ability to exceed its growth algorithm opportunistically.
Membership Growth
Ollie's Army loyalty program saw a 30% increase in new memberships year-over-year, with the customer file increasing by 12%.
Revenue and Earnings Growth
Net sales increased 19% to $614 million with comparable store sales growth of 3.3%. Adjusted net income and adjusted earnings per share increased 29% to $46 million and $0.75, respectively.
Increased Sales and Earnings Outlook
Raised full-year sales and earnings outlook, with net sales projected to be between $2.648 to $2.655 billion.
Strong Cash Position
Total cash and investments increased by 42% to $432 million with no meaningful long-term debt.
Digital Marketing Success
Shift from traditional print to digital marketing is proving successful, with October being the strongest month.
Supply Chain and Infrastructure Investment
Plans to expand the Texas distribution center by 150,000 square feet and increase service capacity by approximately 50 stores.
Negative Updates
Gross Margin Pressures
Gross margin decreased slightly by 10 basis points to 41.3%, primarily due to higher supply chain costs, including tariff expenses.
Average Ticket Price Decline
There was a decrease in average ticket price, driven by a high single-digit decline in average unit retail.
Impact of Tariffs
Higher supply chain costs and tariff expenses continue to affect the company's financials.
Company Guidance
In the recent earnings call, Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. provided an optimistic outlook for Fiscal Year 2025, raising their full-year sales and earnings guidance due to a strong third quarter and a promising start to the fourth quarter. Key metrics include the opening of 86 new stores, representing an 18% growth, and a total of 645 stores by the end of the third quarter. Comparable store sales increased by 3.3%, driven by mid-single-digit transaction growth, although the average ticket price saw a slight decline. The Ollie's Army loyalty program expanded significantly, with membership rising 12% to 16.6 million members, and new memberships increasing by 30% year over year. The company reported a net sales increase of 19% to $614 million and an adjusted net income growth of 29% to $46 million for the quarter. Gross margin slightly decreased to 41.3% due to higher supply chain costs, while SG&A expenses as a percentage of net sales decreased to 29.4%. For Fiscal 2025, Ollie's projects net sales of $2.648 to $2.655 billion, with a gross margin of 40.3% and adjusted earnings per share of $3.81 to $3.87. The company plans to open 75 new stores in Fiscal 2026, with a focus on capturing market share from retail consolidations and leveraging strong consumer demand.Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding demonstrates strong financial health with consistent revenue growth, solid profitability, and effective cash flow management. The balance sheet is stable with moderate leverage, supporting future growth opportunities.Income Statement
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding shows a solid financial performance with a consistent revenue growth rate of 3.94% in the TTM period. The gross profit margin of 40.74% and net profit margin of 8.81% indicate strong profitability. However, the EBIT margin of 9.05% suggests room for improvement in operational efficiency.78
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.37, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity of 12.50% reflects effective use of shareholder funds, while the equity ratio of 64.18% underscores financial stability.75
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow performance is robust, with a free cash flow growth rate of 27.83% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.72 and free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.70 highlight strong cash generation relative to earnings.82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.54B | 2.27B | 2.10B | 1.83B | 1.75B | 1.81B |
| Gross Profit | 1.03B | 914.45M | 832.37M | 656.09M | 681.25M | 723.37M |
| EBITDA | 340.00M | 293.46M | 277.42M | 171.31M | 239.16M | 310.24M |
| Net Income | 223.60M | 199.76M | 181.44M | 102.79M | 157.46M | 242.70M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.86B | 2.56B | 2.29B | 2.04B | 1.97B | 2.01B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 186.01M | 428.67M | 353.24M | 270.76M | 246.98M | 447.13M |
| Total Debt | 670.71M | 564.87M | 488.75M | 441.18M | 431.93M | 387.17M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.02B | 865.84M | 786.36M | 682.03M | 684.46M | 670.97M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.83B | 1.70B | 1.51B | 1.36B | 1.29B | 1.33B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 184.39M | 106.90M | 130.09M | 62.68M | 10.04M | 330.68M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 261.93M | 227.45M | 254.50M | 114.35M | 45.03M | 361.25M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -218.01M | -255.34M | -150.09M | -111.45M | -31.83M | -30.45M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -27.91M | -33.25M | -48.74M | -39.27M | -213.35M | 26.37M |
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Technical Analysis
Neutral
115.92
Price Trends
117.81
Negative
123.25
Negative
122.35
Negative
Market Momentum
0.09
Negative
51.54
Neutral
72.06
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OLLI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 115.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 112.45, below the 50-day MA of 117.81, and below the 200-day MA of 122.35, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for OLLI.
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Risk Analysis
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $4.37B | 28.92 | 12.22% | 1.02% | 7.25% | 5.42% | |
73 Outperform | $7.11B | 32.06 | 12.96% | ― | 12.58% | 7.80% | |
73 Outperform | $33.23B | 26.06 | 16.45% | 1.88% | 4.86% | -4.51% | |
71 Outperform | $12.55B | 22.11 | 29.24% | ― | 2.82% | 3.77% | |
69 Neutral | $7.93B | 15.77 | 36.96% | ― | 16.60% | 49.76% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
61 Neutral | $27.90B | -10.41 | 20.07% | ― | -39.27% | -182.36% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
OLLI
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding
115.92
11.44
10.95%
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150.95
83.18
122.75%
DLTR
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SFM
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81.42
-59.11
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BJ
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.