Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding (OLLI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $8.15B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.42M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 40.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.68
• Revenue Growth: 8.70%
• EPS Growth: 2.54%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,900
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Discount Stores
• EPS (TTM): 0.75
• Shares Outstanding: 61,341,120
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,352,224
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,417,079
• PEG Ratio: 2.71
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.17
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 118.20
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.44
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.40
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.84
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.96
• 1Y Price Target: $127.85
• Price Target Upside: -2.98% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: $147.00 ▲(11.55%Upside)

Ollie's Bargain Outlet's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and positive earnings call insights, indicating growth potential. However, technical indicators suggest caution due to overbought conditions, and a high P/E ratio raises valuation concerns.

Positive Factors

Competitive Advantage

OLLI stands to benefit from the new Ollie’s Army Night messaging and the potential sales lift from At Home’s recent bankruptcy announcement.

Expansion and Growth

OLLI opened 25 stores in Q1, 4 more than expectations, though FY outlook of 75 openings is unchanged.

Market Position

OLLI is seen as a market share gainer in retail, particularly as consumers prioritize value and smaller retailers face difficulties.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

Some one-time items in SG&A limited the magnitude of the 1Q EPS beat and limited the ability to raise EPS guidance.

Market Challenges

A dynamic tariff backdrop and softening consumer discretionary spend could limit topline/EBIT margin expansion.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Inc. (OLLI) is a leading American discount retail chain that specializes in offering an extensive selection of brand name merchandise at significantly reduced prices. Founded in 1982 and headquartered in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, Ollie's operates a growing network of stores across the United States. The company is known for its 'Good Stuff Cheap' slogan and provides customers with a wide variety of products, including housewares, books, toys, food, electronics, and more. Ollie's focuses on acquiring closeouts, excess inventory, and salvage merchandise from manufacturers, wholesalers, and other retailers, enabling it to pass substantial savings on to its customers.

How the Company Makes Money

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Inc. generates revenue primarily through the sale of discounted merchandise in its retail stores. The company sources products from a variety of channels, including closeout merchandise, excess inventory, and salvage goods, which are often purchased at below-market prices. This business model allows Ollie's to offer significant discounts to its customers while maintaining healthy profit margins. Key revenue streams include sales from various product categories such as housewares, food, clothing, and electronics. A significant factor contributing to Ollie’s earnings is its strategic purchasing practices, which involve building strong relationships with suppliers and remaining flexible to quickly respond to market opportunities for acquiring discounted merchandise. Additionally, Ollie's operates a customer loyalty program, Ollie's Army, which helps drive repeat business and customer retention.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ollie's Bargain Outlet shows strong financial performance with consistent revenue and profit growth, efficient operations, and solid cash flow management. Its conservative leverage strategy and financial stability position it well within the industry, though the increase in debt warrants monitoring.

Income Statement

Ollie's Bargain Outlet has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with a notable Revenue Growth Rate of 11.3% in the latest annual period. The Gross Profit Margin stands strong at 40.3% TTM, and the Net Profit Margin is healthy at 8.6% TTM. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also solid, indicating efficient operational performance. However, a slight decrease in EBIT from the previous full year suggests room for operational efficiency improvement.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a strong balance sheet with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.38 TTM, highlighting a conservative leverage strategy. Return on Equity is robust at 11.6% TTM, indicating effective use of equity capital. The Equity Ratio of 63.9% TTM suggests financial stability. However, the increase in total debt over the years may pose a potential risk if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

Ollie's Bargain Outlet exhibits strong cash flow management, with a positive Free Cash Flow growth of 11.4% from the previous period. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is favorable at 1.07 TTM, indicating efficient conversion of net income into cash. The company also maintains a positive Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio, highlighting strong cash generation capabilities. However, the slight decrease in operating cash flow compared to the previous year should be monitored.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.34B	2.27B	2.10B	1.83B	1.75B	1.81B
Gross Profit	942.13M	914.45M	832.37M	656.09M	681.25M	723.37M
EBITDA	307.28M	293.46M	277.42M	162.57M	239.16M	299.96M
Net Income	200.98M	199.76M	181.44M	102.79M	157.46M	242.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.71B	2.56B	2.29B	2.04B	1.97B	2.01B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	369.51M	428.67M	353.24M	270.76M	246.98M	447.13M
Total Debt	648.69M	564.87M	488.75M	441.18M	430.88M	387.17M
Total Liabilities	977.17M	865.84M	786.36M	682.03M	684.46M	670.97M
Stockholders Equity	1.73B	1.70B	1.51B	1.36B	1.29B	1.33B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	95.54M	106.90M	130.09M	62.68M	10.04M	330.68M
Operating Cash Flow	215.97M	227.45M	254.50M	114.35M	45.03M	361.25M
Investing Cash Flow	-205.09M	-255.34M	-150.09M	-111.45M	-31.83M	-30.45M
Financing Cash Flow	-24.11M	-33.25M	-48.74M	-39.27M	-213.35M	26.37M

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 131.78
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OLLI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 131.78 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 120.38, above the 50-day MA of 114.92, and above the 200-day MA of 105.98, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 5.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.70 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OLLI.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OLLI	78 Outperform	$8.15B	40.53	12.32%	―	8.70%	2.54%
MHO	77 Outperform	$3.02B	5.93	19.02%	―	8.68%	8.39%
DG	77 Outperform	$25.19B	21.83	15.69%	2.06%	4.77%	-23.73%
M	72 Outperform	$3.08B	5.74	12.92%	6.43%	-3.77%	4607.98%
TBBB	69 Neutral	$3.15B	113.68	14.10%	―	―	―
Sector *	62 Neutral	$16.72B	10.94	-7.49%	3.11%	1.66%	-24.52%
DLTR	58 Neutral	$20.60B	―	19.25%	―	-20.46%	-202.26%

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Corporate Events

Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holds Annual Meeting, Elects Directors

On June 12, 2025, Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holding held its Annual Meeting where stockholders approved the election of ten directors to the Board, the compensation of the company’s named executive officers, and the 2025 Plan to succeed the expiring 2015 equity incentive plan. Additionally, the appointment of KPMG LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending January 31, 2026, was ratified.

The most recent analyst rating on (OLLI) stock is a Hold with a $99.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holding stock, see the OLLI Stock Forecast page.