Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. (OLLI)
NASDAQ:OLLI
Want to see OLLI full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding
(NASDAQ:OLLI)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$91.00
▼(-4.03% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/16/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (improving profitability, steady growth, and a healthy balance sheet) and a constructive earnings outlook with continued store expansion and buybacks. This is tempered by mixed technicals (still below longer-term moving averages with negative MACD) and moderate valuation support given no dividend.
Positive Factors
Balance sheet strength
A conservative leverage profile (debt well below equity, mid-0.3x D/E) combined with a meaningful cash build improves the company’s financial flexibility to fund store growth, DC investments and buybacks while weathering cyclicality. That durability supports execution over months.
Negative Factors
Rising inventory exposure
Inventory growth from rapid store expansion raises working-capital needs and timing risk if seasonal demand shifts. Higher inventory coupled with historically choppy free cash flow can amplify margin pressure and strain cash conversion over the coming quarters if sell-through lags.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance sheet strength
A conservative leverage profile (debt well below equity, mid-0.3x D/E) combined with a meaningful cash build improves the company’s financial flexibility to fund store growth, DC investments and buybacks while weathering cyclicality. That durability supports execution over months.
Read all positive factors
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding (OLLI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.65B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.11M
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.8
Beta (1Y)0.75
Revenue Growth16.74%
EPS Growth24.35%
CountryUS
Employees5,900
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryDiscount Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.08
Shares Outstanding60,453,293
10 Day Avg. Volume2,295,342
30 Day Avg. Volume2,105,335
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.39
Price to Book (P/B)3.58
Price to Sales (P/S)2.55
P/FCF Ratio34.75
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.12
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.90
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.85
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.48
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$121.33Price Target Upside27.96% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)4.5
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.98B
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. operates as a leading discount retailer, offering a wide variety of brand-name goods. The company's diverse inventory includes home essentials such as housewares, bed and bath products, and floor coverings, as...
How the Company Makes Money
Ollie’s makes money primarily by purchasing merchandise at steep discounts and reselling it through its chain of retail stores at prices that are meaningfully below traditional retailers while still generating a gross profit margin. Its core reven...
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jun 03, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed solid operational and financial execution: double-digit top-line growth, margin expansion, strong earnings and cash generation, meaningful loyalty growth, ongoing store expansion and targeted capital investments (DC upgrades and expansions). Management acknowledged near-term headwinds from unseasonable weather, a rapid spike in fuel costs that caused trip consolidation, and localized regional weakness (notably the South and seasonal categories). They are taking proactive merchandising and pricing actions (investing in price, driving event cadence, improving space productivity) and raised their buyback and EPS outlook, signaling confidence. Balancing the pronounced quarterly positives against identifiable but manageable headwinds results in an overall constructive tone with momentum intact but contingent on weather normalization and consumer behavior stabilizing.Positive Updates
Net Sales and Comparable Sales Growth
Net sales increased 14% year-over-year to $659 million in Q1; comparable store sales (comps) rose 1.7% driven by basket growth and strength in food, general merchandise, hardware, seasonal decor and stationery.
Negative Updates
Weather-Related and Regional Underperformance
Divergent trends across regions due to unseasonable weather; the South notably underperformed (lagging plan by ~100–300 basis points) driven by drought-like conditions that hurt lawn & garden and summer furniture sales.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Net Sales and Comparable Sales Growth
Net sales increased 14% year-over-year to $659 million in Q1; comparable store sales (comps) rose 1.7% driven by basket growth and strength in food, general merchandise, hardware, seasonal decor and stationery.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Ollie's reiterated full‑year fiscal 2026 guidance calling for 75 new store openings and net sales of $2.98–$3.00 billion, with comparable‑store sales growth of about 2% and gross margin around 40.7%. Management expects operating income of $340–348 million, adjusted net income of $271–277 million and adjusted EPS of $4.45–$4.55 while targeting mid‑teens earnings growth. Key assumptions include diluted shares of ~60.9 million, depreciation & amortization of $63 million (incl. $15 million in COGS), preopening expense of $22 million, an annual tax rate of ~25% (excl. stock‑based compensation), and capital expenditures of $103–113 million (including ~ $20 million for Texas and Illinois DC expansions). The plan also contemplates a $125 million share repurchase target (roughly 50% of free cash flow), higher fuel costs for the balance of the year, and tariff assumptions that reflect current relief through July.Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.73B | 2.65B | 2.27B | 2.10B | 1.83B | 1.75B |
| Gross Profit | 1.07B | 1.03B | 914.45M | 832.37M | 656.09M | 681.25M |
| EBITDA | 385.49M | 378.18M | 293.46M | 277.42M | 171.31M | 239.16M |
| Net Income | 249.44M | 240.60M | 199.76M | 181.44M | 102.79M | 157.46M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.99B | 2.95B | 2.56B | 2.29B | 2.04B | 1.97B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 249.56M | 296.31M | 428.67M | 353.24M | 270.76M | 246.98M |
| Total Debt | 710.30M | 685.93M | 564.87M | 488.75M | 441.18M | 431.93M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.10B | 1.07B | 865.84M | 786.36M | 682.03M | 684.46M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.89B | 1.89B | 1.70B | 1.51B | 1.36B | 1.29B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 212.72M | 194.66M | 106.90M | 130.09M | 62.68M | 10.04M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 313.34M | 296.54M | 227.45M | 254.50M | 114.35M | 45.03M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -211.22M | -179.93M | -255.34M | -150.09M | -111.45M | -31.83M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -103.46M | -62.06M | -33.25M | -48.74M | -39.27M | -213.35M |
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Technical Analysis
Negative
94.82
Price Trends
83.61
Negative
94.00
Negative
108.10
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.96
Negative
42.39
Neutral
26.95
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OLLI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 94.82 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 80.13, above the 50-day MA of 83.61, and below the 200-day MA of 108.10, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.96 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OLLI.
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Risk Analysis
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $5.62B | 35.98 | 12.00% | 1.02% | 8.85% | 8.03% | |
72 Outperform | $7.57B | 15.04 | 36.06% | ― | 10.25% | 17.03% | |
68 Neutral | $4.65B | 18.77 | 13.49% | ― | 16.74% | 24.35% | |
68 Neutral | $21.46B | 17.08 | 35.90% | ― | -19.68% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
62 Neutral | $25.03B | 15.99 | 18.65% | 1.88% | 4.72% | 35.43% | |
61 Neutral | $10.88B | 19.19 | 26.59% | ― | 5.92% | 0.80% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
OLLI
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding
76.91
-52.30
-40.48%
DG
Dollar General
113.45
0.79
0.70%
DLTR
Dollar Tree
111.65
11.14
11.08%
PSMT
Pricesmart
182.02
80.86
79.93%
SFM
Sprouts Farmers
80.49
-92.80
-53.55%
BJ
Bj's Wholesale Club Holdings
85.22
-29.59
-25.77%
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Ollie’s Stockholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor Choices
Positive
Jun 15, 2026
On June 11, 2026, Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. held its annual meeting of stockholders, where shareholders elected ten directors to serve until the 2027 annual meeting or until successors are chosen, signaling continued confidence i...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Ollie’s Announces Merchandising Leadership Transition and Succession
Positive
Mar 16, 2026
On March 10, 2026, Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. announced that long-serving Senior Vice President and General Merchandise Manager Kevin McLain will retire effective May 1, 2026, after holding the role since May 2014. His departure f...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.