Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding (OLLI)
NASDAQ:OLLI
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Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding
(NASDAQ:OLLI)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$90.00
▼(-5.08% Downside)
Action:UpgradedDate:03/17/26
Overall score reflects solid financial performance and a constructive earnings outlook (store growth, comps and EPS guidance, and increased repurchases), partially offset by weak technical trend signals and a relatively high P/E with no dividend support.
Positive Factors
Stable high margins
Ollie’s durable off‑price buying model supports a roughly 40% gross margin and ~9% net margin, providing a structural profitability cushion. Opportunistic sourcing and high turnover let management preserve spreads versus traditional retailers, helping earnings withstand moderate cost shocks.
Negative Factors
Inventory build raises working capital risk
An 18% inventory increase ties up significant working capital and heightens sensitivity to shifts in consumer demand or deal flow. With only moderate cash conversion (~59% of net income) and some timing volatility in operating cash, oversized inventory builds can strain liquidity and compress margins over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Stable high margins
Ollie’s durable off‑price buying model supports a roughly 40% gross margin and ~9% net margin, providing a structural profitability cushion. Opportunistic sourcing and high turnover let management preserve spreads versus traditional retailers, helping earnings withstand moderate cost shocks.
Read all positive factors
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding (OLLI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.01B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.53M
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.7
Beta (1Y)0.71
Revenue Growth16.62%
EPS Growth20.49%
CountryUS
Employees5,900
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryDiscount Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.93
Shares Outstanding60,956,215
10 Day Avg. Volume1,363,507
30 Day Avg. Volume1,533,629
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.39
Price to Book (P/B)3.58
Price to Sales (P/S)2.55
P/FCF Ratio34.75
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.09
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.05
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.27
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.76
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$139.40Price Target Upside47.02% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)4.48
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.00B
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. operates as a retailer of brand name merchandise. The company offers housewares, bed and bath, food, floor coverings, health and beauty aids, books and stationery, toys, and electronics; and other products, in...
How the Company Makes Money
Ollie’s makes money primarily by purchasing merchandise at steep discounts and reselling it through its chain of retail stores at prices that are meaningfully below traditional retailers while still generating a gross profit margin. Its core reven...
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial momentum: record store openings, double-digit net sales growth (+17%), healthy comps (+3.6%), meaningful loyalty expansion, and a fortified balance sheet with an increased commitment to share repurchases. Management acknowledged discrete challenges—weather-related store closures, a near-term flattening in new-store maturity tied to a soft-opening approach, margin reinvestments (≈80 bps YoY decline), inventory build and tariff/geopolitical risks—but framed them as manageable and within planning assumptions. Guidance for 2026 is constructive (sales and EPS growth, 75 new stores, 40.5% gross margin baseline) and the company emphasized disciplined capital allocation and reinvestment into the business.Positive Updates
Record Store Expansion
Opened a record 86 stores in fiscal 2025 (previous record 50), with all openings occurring in the first three quarters; total store count 658 across 35 states. Planning 75 new store openings in 2026 and targeting long-term >1,300 stores (roughly 10%+ annual unit growth).
Negative Updates
Weather-Related Store Disruptions
Severe winter storms around Black Friday weekend, Ollie's Army Night and late January caused hundreds of store closures and meaningful disruptions, disproportionately impacting Q4 and new-store sales performance.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Store Expansion
Opened a record 86 stores in fiscal 2025 (previous record 50), with all openings occurring in the first three quarters; total store count 658 across 35 states. Planning 75 new store openings in 2026 and targeting long-term >1,300 stores (roughly 10%+ annual unit growth).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company’s fiscal 2026 guidance calls for 75 new stores (front‑loaded), net sales of $2.985–$3.013 billion, comparable‑store sales growth of ~2% and a gross margin target of 40.5%; management expects operating income of $339–$348 million, adjusted net income of $270–$277 million and adjusted EPS of $4.40–$4.50 (diluted weighted‑average shares ~61.4M), with depreciation & amortization of $63M (including $15M in COGS), preopening expense of $22M, an annual effective tax rate of ~25%, and capital expenditures of $103–$113M (including nearly $20M for Texas and Illinois DC expansions). Management reiterated a long‑term algorithm targeting ~10% unit growth and 2% comp growth, a commitment to return ~50% of free cash flow to shareholders via stepped‑up share repurchases (roughly $100M planned in 2026), and said these initiatives should support consistent mid‑teens EPS growth en route to a 1,300‑store target.Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.65B | 2.27B | 2.10B | 1.83B | 1.75B |
| Gross Profit | 1.03B | 914.45M | 832.37M | 656.09M | 681.25M |
| EBITDA | 378.18M | 293.46M | 277.42M | 171.31M | 239.16M |
| Net Income | 240.60M | 199.76M | 181.44M | 102.79M | 157.46M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.95B | 2.56B | 2.29B | 2.04B | 1.97B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 296.31M | 428.67M | 353.24M | 270.76M | 246.98M |
| Total Debt | 685.93M | 564.87M | 488.75M | 441.18M | 431.93M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.07B | 865.84M | 786.36M | 682.03M | 684.46M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.89B | 1.70B | 1.51B | 1.36B | 1.29B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 194.66M | 106.90M | 130.09M | 62.68M | 10.04M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 296.54M | 227.45M | 254.50M | 114.35M | 45.03M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -179.93M | -255.34M | -150.09M | -111.45M | -31.83M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -62.06M | -33.25M | -48.74M | -39.27M | -213.35M |
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Technical Analysis
Neutral
94.82
Price Trends
102.19
Negative
108.29
Negative
119.00
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.21
Negative
46.12
Neutral
59.60
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OLLI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 94.82 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 93.49, below the 50-day MA of 102.19, and below the 200-day MA of 119.00, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.60 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for OLLI.
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Risk Analysis
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $4.89B | 23.80 | 12.00% | 1.02% | 8.85% | 8.03% | |
70 Outperform | $5.01B | 19.75 | 13.30% | ― | 16.62% | 20.49% | |
68 Neutral | $12.06B | 23.91 | 27.41% | ― | 4.66% | 8.98% | |
67 Neutral | $7.79B | 11.19 | 36.06% | ― | 10.25% | 17.03% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
56 Neutral | $18.59B | 11.56 | 34.83% | ― | -29.62% | ― | |
55 Neutral | $24.95B | 20.87 | 18.66% | 1.88% | 5.20% | 34.26% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
OLLI
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding
82.21
-31.70
-27.83%
DG
Dollar General
113.29
25.58
29.17%
DLTR
Dollar Tree
94.24
5.24
5.89%
PSMT
Pricesmart
158.26
55.42
53.89%
SFM
Sprouts Farmers
82.83
-74.16
-47.24%
BJ
Bj's Wholesale Club Holdings
92.97
-18.74
-16.78%
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Ollie’s Announces Merchandising Leadership Transition and Succession
Positive
Mar 16, 2026
On March 10, 2026, Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. announced that long-serving Senior Vice President and General Merchandise Manager Kevin McLain will retire effective May 1, 2026, after holding the role since May 2014. His departure f...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.