Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding (OLLI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $8.15B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.18M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 38.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.70
• Revenue Growth: 10.14%
• EPS Growth: 5.01%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,900
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Discount Stores
• EPS (TTM): 0.99
• Shares Outstanding: 61,310,150
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,065,874
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,177,318
• PEG Ratio: 3.15
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.03
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.01
• P/FCF Ratio: 63.98
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.09
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.64
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.93
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 27.00
• 1Y Price Target: $147.07
• Price Target Upside: 9.20% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 16

• Rating: 79 Outperform
• Price Target: $154.00 ▲(14.35% Upside)

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding's strong financial performance and positive earnings call results are the most significant factors driving its score. The company's robust growth, efficient operations, and strategic store expansion are key strengths. However, the high P/E ratio suggests overvaluation, and the absence of a dividend yield detracts from its valuation appeal. Technical indicators support a stable outlook, but rising debt levels and increased expenses should be monitored.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The significant increase in net sales and comparable store sales reflects strong market demand and effective sales strategies, indicating robust revenue growth potential.

Store Expansion

The aggressive store expansion strategy enhances market presence and revenue potential, supporting long-term growth by tapping into new geographic markets.

Loyalty Program Growth

Growth in the loyalty program boosts customer retention and sales per visit, enhancing long-term revenue stability and customer engagement.

Negative Factors

Rising SG&A Expenses

Increased SG&A expenses can pressure profit margins, potentially impacting financial performance if not managed effectively over the long term.

Preopening and Dark Rent Costs

High preopening and dark rent costs could strain financial resources, affecting profitability and cash flow if expansion costs are not controlled.

Debt Levels

Increasing debt levels could limit financial flexibility and increase risk, necessitating careful management to maintain long-term financial health.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. operates as a retailer of brand name merchandise. The company offers housewares, bed and bath, food, floor coverings, health and beauty aids, books and stationery, toys, and electronics; and other products, including hardware, candy, clothing, sporting goods, pet and lawn, and garden products. It provides its products primarily under the Ollie's, Ollie's Bargain Outlet, Good Stuff Cheap, Ollie's Army, Real Brands Real Cheap!, Real Brands! Real Bargains, Sarasota Breeze, Steelton Tools, American Way, and Middleton Home names. As of August 3, 2022, it operated 450 stores in 29 states throughout half of the United States. The company was formerly known as Bargain Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. in March 2015. Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

How the Company Makes Money

Ollie's generates revenue primarily through the sale of discounted merchandise in its retail stores. The company's revenue model is based on purchasing overstock and closeout items directly from manufacturers and wholesalers at a deep discount, which allows them to pass on savings to consumers while maintaining healthy profit margins. Key revenue streams include sales from a diverse array of product categories, including food, cleaning supplies, and home goods. Additionally, Ollie's benefits from a loyal customer base that seeks value and variety, which drives repeat business. The company's strategic partnerships with suppliers also enable it to secure favorable pricing and exclusive deals on inventory, further enhancing its profit potential.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding exhibits strong financial health with solid revenue growth, efficient operations, and robust cash flow management. The balance sheet is stable, though rising debt levels warrant monitoring. Overall, the company is well-positioned in the discount retail industry, but should continue to focus on sustaining growth and managing leverage effectively.

Income Statement

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding shows strong revenue growth with a TTM increase of 4.33% and consistent gross profit margins around 40%. The net profit margin is healthy at 8.59%, indicating effective cost management. EBIT and EBITDA margins are stable, reflecting operational efficiency. However, the revenue growth rate has slowed compared to previous years, which could be a concern if the trend continues.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a solid balance sheet with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.38, indicating prudent leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) is decent at 12.12%, showcasing effective use of equity capital. The equity ratio stands at 63.74%, reflecting a strong equity base. However, increasing debt levels over time could pose a risk if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

Ollie's demonstrates robust cash flow management with a significant free cash flow growth rate of 78.63% TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.62, indicating good cash conversion. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.44, suggesting a healthy cash flow relative to earnings. Despite these strengths, the company should focus on maintaining consistent cash flow growth.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.44B	2.27B	2.10B	1.83B	1.75B	1.81B
Gross Profit	994.43M	914.45M	832.37M	656.09M	681.25M	723.37M
EBITDA	328.82M	293.46M	277.42M	162.57M	239.16M	299.96M
Net Income	213.31M	199.76M	181.44M	102.79M	157.46M	242.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.80B	2.56B	2.29B	2.04B	1.97B	2.01B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	317.06M	428.67M	353.24M	270.76M	246.98M	447.13M
Total Debt	665.58M	564.87M	488.75M	441.18M	431.93M	387.17M
Total Liabilities	1.02B	865.84M	786.36M	682.03M	684.46M	670.97M
Stockholders Equity	1.79B	1.70B	1.51B	1.36B	1.29B	1.33B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	170.67M	106.90M	130.09M	62.68M	10.04M	330.68M
Operating Cash Flow	252.81M	227.45M	254.50M	114.35M	45.03M	361.25M
Investing Cash Flow	-153.95M	-255.34M	-150.09M	-111.45M	-31.83M	-30.45M
Financing Cash Flow	-38.29M	-33.25M	-48.74M	-39.27M	-213.35M	26.37M

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 134.68
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OLLI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 134.68 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 132.38, above the 50-day MA of 133.81, and above the 200-day MA of 117.17, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.65 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OLLI.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OLLI	79 Outperform	$8.15B	38.12	12.63%	―	10.14%	5.01%
PSMT	78 Outperform	3.61B	24.68	11.98%	1.07%	7.47%	15.20%
DG	68 Neutral	23.00B	19.18	14.87%	2.26%	4.98%	-15.98%
SFM	67 Neutral	11.31B	23.85	28.79%	―	16.83%	52.71%
BJ	66 Neutral	12.32B	21.47	27.58%	―	2.48%	9.41%
DLTR	53 Neutral	19.56B	-7.06	-82.21%	―	-29.67%	-178.03%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%