Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding (OLLI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.32B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.28M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 35.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.61
• Revenue Growth: 8.70%
• EPS Growth: 2.54%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,900
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 66
• Industry: Discount Stores
• EPS (TTM): 0.75
• Shares Outstanding: 61,341,120
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,452,335
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,278,698
• PEG Ratio: 3.15
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.03
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 63.98
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.98
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.79
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.64
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.90
• 1Y Price Target: $127.43
• Price Target Upside: 12.76% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: $130.00 ▲(15.03%Upside)

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding's overall stock score reflects its strong financial performance and strategic growth initiatives, particularly in store expansions and loyalty program strength. Technical indicators support a stable outlook, although valuation concerns due to a high P/E ratio slightly temper the overall assessment. Positive earnings call insights further contribute to the favorable score.

Positive Factors

Consumer Behavior

OLLI's value proposition is resonating with stretched consumers.

Real Estate Strategy

OLLI will remain opportunistic in acquiring real estate with prime locations and good rent structures as retailer bankruptcies continue.

Negative Factors

Earnings Guidance

Some one-time items in SG&A limited the magnitude of the 1Q EPS beat and limited the ability to raise EPS guidance.

Margin Expansion

A dynamic tariff backdrop and softening consumer discretionary spend could limit topline/EBIT margin expansion.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Inc. (OLLI) is a leading American discount retail chain that specializes in offering an extensive selection of brand name merchandise at significantly reduced prices. Founded in 1982 and headquartered in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, Ollie's operates a growing network of stores across the United States. The company is known for its 'Good Stuff Cheap' slogan and provides customers with a wide variety of products, including housewares, books, toys, food, electronics, and more. Ollie's focuses on acquiring closeouts, excess inventory, and salvage merchandise from manufacturers, wholesalers, and other retailers, enabling it to pass substantial savings on to its customers.

How the Company Makes Money

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Inc. generates revenue primarily through the sale of discounted merchandise in its retail stores. The company sources products from a variety of channels, including closeout merchandise, excess inventory, and salvage goods, which are often purchased at below-market prices. This business model allows Ollie's to offer significant discounts to its customers while maintaining healthy profit margins. Key revenue streams include sales from various product categories such as housewares, food, clothing, and electronics. A significant factor contributing to Ollie’s earnings is its strategic purchasing practices, which involve building strong relationships with suppliers and remaining flexible to quickly respond to market opportunities for acquiring discounted merchandise. Additionally, Ollie's operates a customer loyalty program, Ollie's Army, which helps drive repeat business and customer retention.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding demonstrates strong financial health across income, balance sheet, and cash flow perspectives. The company shows robust revenue and profit growth, stable leverage, and efficient cash flow management. These factors collectively indicate a solid financial foundation, positioning the company well for continued success in the Retailers - Staples industry.

Income Statement

The company's income statement shows strong growth with a revenue increase of 8.05% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) compared to the previous year. Gross Profit Margin is 39.91%, and Net Profit Margin stands at 8.79%, reflecting efficient cost control. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust at 11.10% and 13.44%, respectively, indicating solid profitability. The consistent revenue and profit growth trends demonstrate effective business operations and market presence.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a stable financial position with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.33, suggesting manageable leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) is 11.78%, indicating good profitability relative to shareholder equity. The Equity Ratio is 66.19%, showing a strong reliance on equity financing. Overall, the balance sheet reflects financial stability with moderate leverage and healthy equity levels.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statements indicate a positive trajectory with a Free Cash Flow Growth Rate of 24.76% in TTM, showcasing effective capital management. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 1.14, reflecting strong cash generation relative to net income. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 0.81, demonstrating efficient translation of profits into free cash flow. Overall, cash flows are strong and supportive of future growth.

Breakdown
TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.34B	2.27B	2.10B	1.83B	1.75B	1.81B
	Gross Profit
942.13M	914.45M	832.37M	656.09M	681.25M	723.37M
	EBIT
249.19M	249.50M	227.80M	130.92M	204.59M	277.50M
	EBITDA
307.28M	293.46M	277.42M	162.57M	239.16M	299.96M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
200.98M	199.76M	181.44M	102.79M	157.46M	242.70M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
303.91M	428.67M	353.24M	270.76M	246.98M	447.13M
	Total Assets
2.47B	2.56B	2.29B	2.04B	1.97B	2.01B
	Total Debt
557.51M	564.87M	488.75M	441.18M	430.88M	387.17M
	Net Debt
428.82M	359.75M	222.49M	230.58M	183.90M	-59.96M
	Total Liabilities
853.87M	865.84M	786.36M	682.03M	684.46M	670.97M
	Stockholders Equity
1.62B	1.70B	1.51B	1.36B	1.29B	1.33B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
95.54M	106.90M	130.09M	62.68M	10.04M	330.68M
	Operating Cash Flow
215.97M	227.45M	254.50M	114.35M	45.03M	361.25M
	Investing Cash Flow
-205.09M	-255.34M	-150.09M	-111.45M	-31.83M	-30.45M
	Financing Cash Flow
-24.11M	-33.25M	-48.74M	-39.27M	-213.35M	26.37M

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 113.01
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OLLI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 113.01 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 114.48, above the 50-day MA of 112.14, and above the 200-day MA of 103.93, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.93 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.08 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for OLLI.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OLLI	78 Outperform	$7.32B	35.64	12.32%	―	8.70%	2.54%
MHO	75 Outperform	$3.01B	5.94	19.02%	―	8.68%	8.39%
M	70 Neutral	$3.36B	6.25	12.92%	5.74%	-3.77%	4607.98%
DG	69 Neutral	$24.97B	21.64	15.69%	2.08%	4.77%	-23.73%
TBBB	65 Neutral	$3.57B	107.99	14.10%	―	―	―
Sector *	63 Neutral	$6.96B	11.51	2.80%	3.85%	2.70%	-24.43%
DLTR	61 Neutral	$19.72B	―	19.25%	―	-20.46%	-202.26%

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding Corporate Events

Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Announces Leadership Changes

On February 3, 2025, Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings announced leadership changes with John Swygert transitioning from CEO to Executive Chairman and Eric van der Valk promoted to President and CEO, effective February 2, 2025. This shift completes the company’s Leadership Succession Plan, enhancing its competitive positioning and growth potential in the retail industry.