Dollar Tree (DLTR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $24.14B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.05M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.69
• Revenue Growth: -20.46%
• EPS Growth: -202.26%
• Country: US
• Employees: 64,434
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Discount Stores
• EPS (TTM): 1.26
• Shares Outstanding: 208,695,820
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,110,111
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,045,503
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.03
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.71
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.08
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.72
• 1Y Price Target: $105.53
• Price Target Upside: -8.76% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 20

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $110.00 ▼(-4.89% Downside)

Dollar Tree's overall stock score reflects a mixed financial performance with challenges in profitability and valuation. Positive technical momentum and strategic corporate actions, including share buybacks and the sale of Family Dollar, provide a supportive backdrop. The most significant risks stem from ongoing net losses and valuation concerns, tempered by strategic growth initiatives and operational improvements.

Positive Factors

Earnings

Dollar Tree reported adjusted EPS and same-store sales for the first quarter that exceeded forecasts.

Pricing Strategy

Survey shows Dollar Tree's basket is nearly 4% cheaper compared to Walmart, providing solid value at higher price points.

Negative Factors

Digital Strategy

Dollar Tree should trade at a discount to Dollar General given its lack of a comprehensive digital strategy and greater uncertainty due to tariffs.

Tariffs

Tariff mitigation strategies remain unclear and could weigh on merchandising quality longer-term.

Dollar Tree Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety retail stores. It operates in two segments, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. The Dollar Tree segment offers merchandise at the fixed price of $ 1.25. It provides consumable merchandise, including candy and food, and health and personal care, as well as everyday consumables, such as household paper and chemicals, and frozen and refrigerated food; variety merchandise comprising toys, durable housewares, gifts, stationery, party goods, greeting cards, softlines, arts and crafts supplies, and other items; and seasonal goods that include Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day merchandise. As of January 29, 2022, this segment operated 8,061 stores under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands, as well as 15 distribution centers in the United States and 2 distribution centers in Canada. The Family Dollar segment operates general merchandise retail discount stores that offer consumable merchandise, which comprise food and beverages, tobacco, health and personal care, household chemicals, paper products, hardware and automotive supplies, diapers, batteries, and pet food and supplies; and home products, including housewares, home décor, and giftware, as well as domestics, such as comforters, sheets, and towels. It also provides apparel and accessories merchandise comprising clothing, fashion accessories, and shoes; and seasonal and electronics merchandise that include Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day merchandise, as well as personal electronics, which comprise pre-paid cellular phones and services, stationery and school supplies, and toys. As of January 29, 2022, this segment operated 8,016 stores under the Family Dollar brand; and 11 distribution centers. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Chesapeake, Virginia.

How the Company Makes Money

Dollar Tree generates revenue primarily through the sale of its diverse product offerings at its retail locations. The company's key revenue streams include consumables, which cover food, snacks, and household supplies; seasonal and party goods, which are popular during holidays and special occasions; and a variety of general merchandise such as toys, apparel, and home decor. Dollar Tree also benefits from economies of scale by purchasing large quantities of goods at low prices and maintaining a low-cost operating model. The company's earnings are supported by its extensive network of physical stores, strategic location selection, and efficient supply chain management. Additionally, Dollar Tree's acquisition of Family Dollar expanded its market presence and diversified its customer base, contributing to its overall revenue growth.

Dollar Tree Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Dollar Tree faces challenges with profitability and net losses, impacting overall financial health. Despite strong gross profit margins, the company struggles with net losses and inconsistent revenue growth. The balance sheet is moderately leveraged, and while cash flow generation is solid, negative return on equity is a concern.

Income Statement

Dollar Tree has seen some fluctuations in its profitability metrics. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is strong at 55.54%, indicating effective cost management. However, the net profit margin is negative, reflecting significant net losses. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with recent declines. EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively low, suggesting operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals moderate financial leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.02, which is typical for the retail industry but highlights a reliance on debt financing. The equity ratio stands at 21.36%, indicating a moderate level of equity financing. Return on equity is negative due to net losses, which is a concern for long-term sustainability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a mixed picture. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. Free cash flow has grown slightly, showing some improvement. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains negative, reflecting the impact of net losses on cash flow metrics.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	17.58B	16.78B	15.41B	26.32B	25.51B
Gross Profit	6.29B	6.02B	5.78B	7.74B	7.79B
EBITDA	2.02B	-40.90M	3.00B	2.52B	2.57B
Net Income	-3.03B	-998.40M	1.62B	1.33B	1.34B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	18.64B	22.02B	23.02B	21.72B	20.70B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.26B	684.90M	642.80M	984.90M	1.42B
Total Debt	7.83B	10.39B	10.13B	9.97B	9.64B
Total Liabilities	14.67B	14.71B	14.27B	14.00B	13.41B
Stockholders Equity	3.98B	7.31B	8.75B	7.72B	7.29B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.56B	576.90M	361.00M	408.70M	1.82B
Operating Cash Flow	2.86B	2.68B	1.61B	1.43B	2.72B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.70B	-2.11B	-1.25B	-1.02B	-889.70M
Financing Cash Flow	-411.30M	-530.00M	-686.80M	-836.50M	-949.90M

Dollar Tree Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 115.66
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DLTR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 115.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 111.31, above the 50-day MA of 102.10, and above the 200-day MA of 79.89, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.99 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 71.98 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DLTR.

Dollar Tree Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BJ	80 Outperform	$14.07B	24.78	32.76%	―	2.84%	11.25%
OLLI	78 Outperform	$8.49B	42.57	12.32%	―	8.70%	2.54%
DG	77 Outperform	$24.40B	21.16	15.69%	2.13%	4.77%	-23.73%
WMT	74 Outperform	$792.54B	42.60	22.80%	0.90%	4.22%	-0.17%
TGT	71 Outperform	$46.54B	11.26	29.08%	4.49%	-0.69%	2.03%
DLTR	60 Neutral	$24.14B	―	19.25%	―	-20.46%	-202.26%
Sector *	50 Neutral	AU$2.04B	-0.17	-22.96%	9.17%	4.40%	-101.77%

Dollar Tree Corporate Events

Dollar Tree Announces $2.5 Billion Share Buyback

On July 9, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors approved a $2.5 billion share repurchase authorization, reinstating the limit set in September 2021. This move underscores the company’s commitment to delivering value to shareholders and reflects confidence in its long-term cash flow generation capabilities. The authorization allows for stock purchases in the open market or through private transactions, with no expiration date, indicating a strategic focus on capital allocation and shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (DLTR) stock is a Hold with a $112.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dollar Tree stock, see the DLTR Stock Forecast page.

Dollar Tree Sells Family Dollar for $1 Billion

On July 5, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. completed the sale of Family Dollar Stores, LLC to 1959 Holdings, LLC for an aggregate base purchase price of $1,007.5 million in cash, subject to adjustments. The net proceeds from the sale are estimated to be approximately $800 million, which includes $665 million paid at closing and $135 million from monetization of cash prior to closing, with final adjustments expected 90 days post-closing.

The most recent analyst rating on (DLTR) stock is a Hold with a $112.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dollar Tree stock, see the DLTR Stock Forecast page.

Dollar Tree Completes Sale of Family Dollar

On July 7, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. announced the completion of its sale of the Family Dollar business to Brigade Capital Management and Macellum Capital Management for $1,007.5 million in cash. The transaction, initially announced on March 26, 2025, is expected to provide Dollar Tree with approximately $800 million in net proceeds and $375 million in tax benefits from losses on the sale. This strategic move allows Dollar Tree to focus on its core business, aiming to accelerate growth and innovation in the value retail sector. The company will also engage in a Transition Services Agreement, which will reduce SG&A expenses.

The most recent analyst rating on (DLTR) stock is a Hold with a $112.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dollar Tree stock, see the DLTR Stock Forecast page.

Dollar Tree Amends By-Laws and Holds Annual Meeting

On June 19, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. amended its By-Laws to reduce the number of directors from twelve to eleven. During the same day, the company held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where all director nominees were elected for a one-year term. Shareholders also approved the executive compensation, ratified KPMG LLP as the independent auditor for 2025, and adopted the 2025 Employee Stock Purchase Plan.

The most recent analyst rating on (DLTR) stock is a Hold with a $112.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dollar Tree stock, see the DLTR Stock Forecast page.

Dollar Tree Reports Strong Q1 2025 Financial Results

Dollar Tree, Inc. reported its first-quarter fiscal 2025 results, highlighting an 11.3% increase in net sales to $4.6 billion, driven by a 5.4% rise in same-store sales. The company completed over $500 million in share repurchases and updated its adjusted EPS outlook to reflect these repurchases. The sale of Family Dollar is on track to close in the second quarter, with expected net proceeds of approximately $800 million. Dollar Tree’s strategic initiatives, including store openings and conversions to a multi-price format, contributed to its performance, positioning the company to capitalize on economic uncertainties and enhance customer value.

The most recent analyst rating on (DLTR) stock is a Hold with a $85.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dollar Tree stock, see the DLTR Stock Forecast page.

Dollar Tree to Announce Q1 2025 Financial Results

On May 21, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. announced it will release its first quarter 2025 financial results on June 4, 2025, before the market opens, followed by a conference call for investors and analysts. The call will be led by CEO Mike Creedon and CFO Stewart Glendinning, providing insights into the company’s performance and allowing for a question-and-answer session, which could impact stakeholder perspectives on the company’s financial health and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (DLTR) stock is a Hold with a $112.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dollar Tree stock, see the DLTR Stock Forecast page.