Dollar Tree (DLTR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $20.20B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 4.96M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.72
• Revenue Growth: -29.67%
• EPS Growth: -178.03%
• Country: US
• Employees: 64,434
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Discount Stores
• EPS (TTM): 0.77
• Shares Outstanding: 203,967,830
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,064,201
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,957,622
• PEG Ratio: -0.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.98
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.90
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.13
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.51
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.40
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.09
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 15.41
• 1Y Price Target: $110.56
• Price Target Upside: 7.77% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 23

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: $98.00 ▼(-4.47% Downside)

Dollar Tree's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, particularly in profitability and leverage, which are partially offset by strong sales growth and customer base expansion as highlighted in the earnings call. The technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, and the valuation metrics are unattractive due to negative earnings. However, the company's strategic initiatives and resilience in the face of operational challenges provide some optimism for future performance.

Positive Factors

Sales Growth

Strong sales growth indicates effective market strategies and product appeal, enhancing long-term revenue potential and market share.

Customer Base Expansion

Expanding customer base, especially among higher-income households, suggests increased brand appeal and potential for higher sales.

Strategic Focus

Divesting Family Dollar allows Dollar Tree to concentrate resources on its core brand, potentially improving operational efficiency and growth.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage can limit financial flexibility and increase risk, potentially impacting the company's ability to invest in growth initiatives.

Declining Revenue

Declining revenue growth poses a challenge to maintaining market position and profitability, potentially affecting long-term business sustainability.

Profitability Challenges

Sustained profitability challenges could hinder reinvestment in the business and affect shareholder returns, impacting long-term growth.

Dollar Tree Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Dollar Tree, Inc. is a leading discount variety store chain in the United States, primarily focused on providing a wide range of products at the fixed price of one dollar. The company operates thousands of stores across the country, offering an extensive assortment of items, including household goods, groceries, party supplies, seasonal items, and health and beauty products. Dollar Tree's business model emphasizes affordability and value, catering to budget-conscious consumers in various demographics.

How the Company Makes Money

Dollar Tree generates revenue primarily through the sale of merchandise in its stores, all priced at one dollar. The company's revenue model is based on high volume sales of low-cost items, allowing it to attract value-seeking customers. Key revenue streams include product sales from its extensive inventory, which is sourced from a combination of direct manufacturers, wholesalers, and imports to keep costs low. Additionally, Dollar Tree benefits from economies of scale, as its large purchasing power enables it to negotiate favorable terms with suppliers. The company also enhances its profitability through efficient inventory management and cost control measures. While Dollar Tree traditionally focused on single-price items, its acquisition of Family Dollar has allowed it to expand its product offerings and reach a broader customer base, contributing to its earnings growth.

Dollar Tree Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Dollar Tree faces significant financial challenges, particularly with profitability and leverage. The company is experiencing declining revenues and substantial losses, as reflected in the negative net profit margin and return on equity. While there are strengths in operational efficiency and cash flow generation, the high debt levels and negative growth trends pose risks to financial stability.

Income Statement

Dollar Tree's income statement shows significant challenges with a negative net profit margin of -25.17% in TTM, indicating substantial losses. The revenue growth rate is also negative at -11.42%, suggesting declining sales. However, the gross profit margin remains relatively strong at 63.29%, and the EBIT margin is positive at 11.15%, showing some operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.36, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risks. Return on equity is negative at -61.99%, reflecting poor profitability. However, the company maintains a reasonable equity ratio, suggesting some balance in its financial structure.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a positive free cash flow growth rate of 7.06% in TTM, indicating improving cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.72, suggesting strong cash flow relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is lower at 0.67, reflecting challenges in converting earnings to free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	21.78B	17.58B	16.78B	15.41B	26.32B	25.51B
Gross Profit	7.45B	6.29B	6.02B	5.78B	7.74B	7.79B
EBITDA	1.98B	2.02B	2.17B	2.46B	2.53B	2.57B
Net Income	-2.96B	-3.03B	-998.40M	1.62B	1.33B	1.34B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	13.38B	18.64B	22.02B	23.02B	21.72B	20.70B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	666.30M	1.26B	425.20M	642.80M	984.90M	1.42B
Total Debt	4.91B	7.83B	7.37B	10.13B	9.97B	9.64B
Total Liabilities	9.78B	14.67B	14.71B	14.27B	14.00B	13.41B
Stockholders Equity	3.61B	3.98B	7.31B	8.75B	7.72B	7.29B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.68B	1.56B	576.90M	361.00M	408.70M	1.82B
Operating Cash Flow	2.50B	2.86B	2.68B	1.61B	1.43B	2.72B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.24B	-1.70B	-2.11B	-1.25B	-1.02B	-889.70M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.88B	-411.30M	-530.00M	-686.80M	-836.50M	-949.90M

Dollar Tree Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 102.59
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DLTR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 102.59 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 93.87, above the 50-day MA of 99.16, and above the 200-day MA of 89.50, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.98 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.47 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DLTR.

Dollar Tree Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OLLI	―	$7.18B	33.95	12.63%	―	10.14%	5.01%
DG	―	$22.45B	18.87	15.60%	2.30%	4.98%	-15.98%
KR	―	$44.47B	16.99	24.83%	1.93%	-2.13%	3.22%
ACI	―	$10.24B	11.03	32.04%	3.19%	2.08%	-1.63%
TSN	―	$17.92B	22.83	4.31%	3.89%	1.99%	―
Sector *	―	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
DLTR	―	$20.20B	-7.55	20.07%	―	-29.67%	-178.03%

Dollar Tree Corporate Events

Dollar Tree Reaffirms Financial Outlook at Investor Day

On October 15, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. hosted its 2025 Investor Day at the NASDAQ MarketSite in New York City, where it reaffirmed its financial outlook for the third quarter and fiscal year 2025. The company outlined a strategic plan for 2026-2028, projecting a 12 to 15 percent compounded annual growth rate in earnings per share, driven by a long-term growth algorithm and discrete cost benefits. The event highlighted the company’s focus on enhancing its product assortment, customer experience, and supply chain to drive profitable growth as a standalone banner, separate from Family Dollar.

The most recent analyst rating on (DLTR) stock is a Hold with a $105.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dollar Tree stock, see the DLTR Stock Forecast page.

Dollar Tree Announces Upcoming Investor Conference

On September 16, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. announced it will host an Investor Conference at the NASDAQ MarketSite in New York on October 15, 2025. The event will feature presentations from the CEO and CFO, outlining a refreshed long-term strategy and financial outlook for the company, with a live webcast available to the public.

The most recent analyst rating on (DLTR) stock is a Buy with a $130.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dollar Tree stock, see the DLTR Stock Forecast page.

Dollar Tree Announces CMO Retirement and Successor

On September 9, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. announced the planned retirement of Chief Merchandising Officer Richard McNeely in April 2026, with Brent Beebe, the current Senior Vice President of Merchandising, set to succeed him. This leadership transition is expected to ensure continuity in Dollar Tree’s merchandising strategy, with Beebe bringing over 20 years of experience to the role, having already made significant contributions to the company since joining in 2020.

The most recent analyst rating on (DLTR) stock is a Hold with a $109.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dollar Tree stock, see the DLTR Stock Forecast page.

Dollar Tree Reports Strong Q2 2025 Earnings Growth

Dollar Tree, Inc., a leading value retailer in North America, operates over 9,000 stores across the U.S. and Canada, providing customers with affordable products and a unique shopping experience.

Dollar Tree’s Earnings Call Highlights Growth Amid Challenges

Dollar Tree’s latest earnings call revealed a generally positive sentiment, highlighting strong sales growth and an expanding customer base. The company effectively managed its store expansions and partnerships, demonstrating resilience despite challenges such as tariff pressures and increased operating costs. Strategic measures and positive customer engagement were key themes throughout the call.

Dollar Tree Boosts Sales Outlook After Family Dollar Sale

Dollar Tree, Inc. reported strong financial results for the second quarter of fiscal 2025, with net sales increasing by 12.3% to $4.6 billion and same-store sales growing by 6.5%. The company completed the sale of Family Dollar on July 5, 2025, allowing it to focus entirely on strengthening the Dollar Tree brand. The sale generated approximately $800 million in cash, and the company has increased its full-year fiscal 2025 net sales outlook to $19.3 to $19.5 billion. Dollar Tree also repurchased over $1 billion in shares year-to-date, reflecting its robust financial position and commitment to returning value to shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (DLTR) stock is a Hold with a $112.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dollar Tree stock, see the DLTR Stock Forecast page.

Dollar Tree to Host Q2 Financial Results Call

On August 13, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. announced it will host a conference call on September 3, 2025, to discuss its second-quarter financial results for the period ending August 2, 2025. The call, led by CEO Mike Creedon and CFO Stewart Glendinning, aims to provide insights into the company’s financial performance and engage with investors and analysts, potentially impacting stakeholder perceptions and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (DLTR) stock is a Hold with a $67.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dollar Tree stock, see the DLTR Stock Forecast page.