Dollar Tree (DLTR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $19.84B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 4.21M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.70
• Revenue Growth: -29.67%
• EPS Growth: -178.03%
• Country: US
• Employees: 64,434
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Discount Stores
• EPS (TTM): 0.77
• Shares Outstanding: 203,967,830
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,706,087
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,208,884
• PEG Ratio: -0.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.98
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.90
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.13
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.54
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.40
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.09
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 15.41
• 1Y Price Target: $113.18
• Price Target Upside: 18.54% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 22

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: $102.00 ▲(6.83% Upside)

Dollar Tree's overall stock score is primarily impacted by significant financial challenges, including declining revenues and high leverage. However, strong sales growth and strategic corporate actions, such as the sale of Family Dollar and share buybacks, provide some positive momentum. Technical indicators suggest bearish sentiment, and valuation metrics are weak due to negative earnings.

Positive Factors

Sales Growth

Strong sales growth indicates effective market strategies and product appeal, enhancing long-term revenue potential and market share.

Customer Base Expansion

Expanding customer base, especially among higher-income households, suggests increased brand appeal and potential for higher sales.

Strategic Focus

Divesting Family Dollar allows Dollar Tree to concentrate resources on its core brand, potentially improving operational efficiency and growth.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage can limit financial flexibility and increase risk, potentially impacting the company's ability to invest in growth initiatives.

Declining Revenue

Declining revenue growth poses a challenge to maintaining market position and profitability, potentially affecting long-term business sustainability.

Profitability Challenges

Sustained profitability challenges could hinder reinvestment in the business and affect shareholder returns, impacting long-term growth.

Dollar Tree Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Dollar Tree, Inc. is a leading discount variety store chain in the United States, primarily focused on providing a wide range of products at the fixed price of one dollar. The company operates thousands of stores across the country, offering an extensive assortment of items, including household goods, groceries, party supplies, seasonal items, and health and beauty products. Dollar Tree's business model emphasizes affordability and value, catering to budget-conscious consumers in various demographics.

How the Company Makes Money

Dollar Tree generates revenue primarily through the sale of merchandise in its stores, all priced at one dollar. The company's revenue model is based on high volume sales of low-cost items, allowing it to attract value-seeking customers. Key revenue streams include product sales from its extensive inventory, which is sourced from a combination of direct manufacturers, wholesalers, and imports to keep costs low. Additionally, Dollar Tree benefits from economies of scale, as its large purchasing power enables it to negotiate favorable terms with suppliers. The company also enhances its profitability through efficient inventory management and cost control measures. While Dollar Tree traditionally focused on single-price items, its acquisition of Family Dollar has allowed it to expand its product offerings and reach a broader customer base, contributing to its earnings growth.

Dollar Tree Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Dollar Tree faces significant financial challenges, particularly with profitability and leverage. The company is experiencing declining revenues and substantial losses, as reflected in the negative net profit margin and return on equity. While there are strengths in operational efficiency and cash flow generation, the high debt levels and negative growth trends pose risks to financial stability.

Income Statement

Dollar Tree's income statement shows significant challenges with a negative net profit margin of -25.17% in TTM, indicating substantial losses. The revenue growth rate is also negative at -11.42%, suggesting declining sales. However, the gross profit margin remains relatively strong at 63.29%, and the EBIT margin is positive at 11.15%, showing some operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.36, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risks. Return on equity is negative at -61.99%, reflecting poor profitability. However, the company maintains a reasonable equity ratio, suggesting some balance in its financial structure.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a positive free cash flow growth rate of 7.06% in TTM, indicating improving cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.72, suggesting strong cash flow relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is lower at 0.67, reflecting challenges in converting earnings to free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	21.78B	17.58B	16.78B	15.41B	26.32B	25.51B
Gross Profit	7.45B	6.29B	6.02B	5.78B	7.74B	7.79B
EBITDA	1.98B	2.02B	2.17B	2.46B	2.53B	2.57B
Net Income	-2.96B	-3.03B	-998.40M	1.62B	1.33B	1.34B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	13.38B	18.64B	22.02B	23.02B	21.72B	20.70B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	666.30M	1.26B	425.20M	642.80M	984.90M	1.42B
Total Debt	4.91B	7.83B	7.37B	10.13B	9.97B	9.64B
Total Liabilities	9.78B	14.67B	14.71B	14.27B	14.00B	13.41B
Stockholders Equity	3.61B	3.98B	7.31B	8.75B	7.72B	7.29B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.68B	1.56B	576.90M	361.00M	408.70M	1.82B
Operating Cash Flow	2.50B	2.86B	2.68B	1.61B	1.43B	2.72B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.24B	-1.70B	-2.11B	-1.25B	-1.02B	-889.70M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.88B	-411.30M	-530.00M	-686.80M	-836.50M	-949.90M

Dollar Tree Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 95.48
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DLTR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 95.48 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 105.45, below the 50-day MA of 109.69, and above the 200-day MA of 86.35, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -4.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 28.22 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.94 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DLTR.

Dollar Tree Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OLLI	76 Outperform	8.35B	39.49	11.94%	―	10.14%	5.01%
DG	69 Neutral	23.01B	19.33	14.87%	2.26%	4.98%	-15.98%
KR	68 Neutral	44.57B	17.06	28.99%	1.94%	-2.13%	3.42%
TSN	66 Neutral	18.83B	24.00	4.35%	3.70%	1.99%	0.00%
ACI	61 Neutral	10.30B	11.22	29.60%	3.10%	1.96%	-14.99%
DLTR	53 Neutral	$19.84B	―	20.07%	―	-29.67%	-178.03%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%

Dollar Tree Corporate Events

Dollar Tree Announces CMO Retirement and Successor

On September 9, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. announced the planned retirement of Chief Merchandising Officer Richard McNeely in April 2026, with Brent Beebe, the current Senior Vice President of Merchandising, set to succeed him. This leadership transition is expected to ensure continuity in Dollar Tree’s merchandising strategy, with Beebe bringing over 20 years of experience to the role, having already made significant contributions to the company since joining in 2020.

Dollar Tree Boosts Sales Outlook After Family Dollar Sale

Dollar Tree, Inc. reported strong financial results for the second quarter of fiscal 2025, with net sales increasing by 12.3% to $4.6 billion and same-store sales growing by 6.5%. The company completed the sale of Family Dollar on July 5, 2025, allowing it to focus entirely on strengthening the Dollar Tree brand. The sale generated approximately $800 million in cash, and the company has increased its full-year fiscal 2025 net sales outlook to $19.3 to $19.5 billion. Dollar Tree also repurchased over $1 billion in shares year-to-date, reflecting its robust financial position and commitment to returning value to shareholders.

Dollar Tree to Host Q2 Financial Results Call

On August 13, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. announced it will host a conference call on September 3, 2025, to discuss its second-quarter financial results for the period ending August 2, 2025. The call, led by CEO Mike Creedon and CFO Stewart Glendinning, aims to provide insights into the company’s financial performance and engage with investors and analysts, potentially impacting stakeholder perceptions and market positioning.

Dollar Tree Announces $2.5 Billion Share Buyback

On July 9, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors approved a $2.5 billion share repurchase authorization, reinstating the limit set in September 2021. This move underscores the company’s commitment to delivering value to shareholders and reflects confidence in its long-term cash flow generation capabilities. The authorization allows for stock purchases in the open market or through private transactions, with no expiration date, indicating a strategic focus on capital allocation and shareholder returns.

Dollar Tree Sells Family Dollar for $1 Billion

On July 5, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. completed the sale of Family Dollar Stores, LLC to 1959 Holdings, LLC for an aggregate base purchase price of $1,007.5 million in cash, subject to adjustments. The net proceeds from the sale are estimated to be approximately $800 million, which includes $665 million paid at closing and $135 million from monetization of cash prior to closing, with final adjustments expected 90 days post-closing.

Dollar Tree Completes Sale of Family Dollar

On July 7, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. announced the completion of its sale of the Family Dollar business to Brigade Capital Management and Macellum Capital Management for $1,007.5 million in cash. The transaction, initially announced on March 26, 2025, is expected to provide Dollar Tree with approximately $800 million in net proceeds and $375 million in tax benefits from losses on the sale. This strategic move allows Dollar Tree to focus on its core business, aiming to accelerate growth and innovation in the value retail sector. The company will also engage in a Transition Services Agreement, which will reduce SG&A expenses.

Dollar Tree Amends By-Laws and Holds Annual Meeting

On June 19, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. amended its By-Laws to reduce the number of directors from twelve to eleven. During the same day, the company held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where all director nominees were elected for a one-year term. Shareholders also approved the executive compensation, ratified KPMG LLP as the independent auditor for 2025, and adopted the 2025 Employee Stock Purchase Plan.