Dollar Tree (DLTR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $22.24B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.94M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.70
• Revenue Growth: -20.46%
• EPS Growth: -202.26%
• Country: US
• Employees: 64,434
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Discount Stores
• EPS (TTM): 1.26
• Shares Outstanding: 208,695,820
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,563,044
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,935,229
• PEG Ratio: -4.68
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.84
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.16
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.20
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.28
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.30
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.09
• 1Y Price Target: $96.69
• Price Target Upside: -10.60% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 20

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $110.00 ▲(1.71%Upside)

Dollar Tree's overall stock score reflects a mixed financial performance with challenges in profitability and valuation. Positive technical momentum and strategic corporate actions, including share buybacks and the sale of Family Dollar, provide a supportive backdrop. The most significant risks stem from ongoing net losses and valuation concerns, tempered by strategic growth initiatives and operational improvements.

Positive Factors

Consumer Relevancy

Dollar Tree's top-line acceleration is encouraging and should continue to have momentum.

Earnings

Dollar Tree reported adjusted EPS and same-store sales for the first quarter that exceeded forecasts.

EPS Growth

Dollar Tree expects EPS growth to reaccelerate in the second half of the year due to lower tariff rates now in effect and mitigation efforts.

Negative Factors

Digital Strategy

DLTR should trade at a discount to DG given its lack of a comprehensive digital strategy and greater uncertainty due to tariffs.

Expense Risks

The analyst reiterates an Underperform rating and a price objective of $70 due to ongoing expense risks and competitive pressures.

Tariffs

Tariffs are expected to impact costs significantly, which introduces risk to achieving margin expansion.

Dollar Tree Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) is a leading operator of discount variety stores, offering a wide assortment of products at the fixed price point of $1.25 (as of recent updates). The company operates in the retail sector and provides an extensive range of products, including consumables, seasonal goods, home products, and health and beauty care items. Dollar Tree operates thousands of stores across the United States and Canada, catering to budget-conscious consumers seeking value for everyday essentials and discretionary purchases.

How the Company Makes Money

Dollar Tree generates revenue primarily through the sale of its diverse product offerings at its retail locations. The company's key revenue streams include consumables, which cover food, snacks, and household supplies; seasonal and party goods, which are popular during holidays and special occasions; and a variety of general merchandise such as toys, apparel, and home decor. Dollar Tree also benefits from economies of scale by purchasing large quantities of goods at low prices and maintaining a low-cost operating model. The company's earnings are supported by its extensive network of physical stores, strategic location selection, and efficient supply chain management. Additionally, Dollar Tree's acquisition of Family Dollar expanded its market presence and diversified its customer base, contributing to its overall revenue growth.

Dollar Tree Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Dollar Tree faces challenges with profitability and net losses, impacting overall financial health. Despite strong gross profit margins, the company struggles with net losses and inconsistent revenue growth. The balance sheet is moderately leveraged, and while cash flow generation is solid, negative return on equity is a concern.

Income Statement

Dollar Tree has seen some fluctuations in its profitability metrics. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is strong at 55.54%, indicating effective cost management. However, the net profit margin is negative, reflecting significant net losses. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with recent declines. EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively low, suggesting operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals moderate financial leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.02, which is typical for the retail industry but highlights a reliance on debt financing. The equity ratio stands at 21.36%, indicating a moderate level of equity financing. Return on equity is negative due to net losses, which is a concern for long-term sustainability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a mixed picture. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. Free cash flow has grown slightly, showing some improvement. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains negative, reflecting the impact of net losses on cash flow metrics.

Breakdown	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	17.58B	16.78B	15.41B	26.32B	25.51B
Gross Profit	6.29B	6.02B	5.78B	7.74B	7.79B
EBITDA	2.02B	-40.90M	3.00B	2.52B	2.57B
Net Income	-3.03B	-998.40M	1.62B	1.33B	1.34B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	18.64B	22.02B	23.02B	21.72B	20.70B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.26B	684.90M	642.80M	984.90M	1.42B
Total Debt	7.83B	10.39B	10.13B	9.97B	9.64B
Total Liabilities	14.67B	14.71B	14.27B	14.00B	13.41B
Stockholders Equity	3.98B	7.31B	8.75B	7.72B	7.29B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.56B	576.90M	361.00M	408.70M	1.82B
Operating Cash Flow	2.86B	2.68B	1.61B	1.43B	2.72B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.70B	-2.11B	-1.25B	-1.02B	-889.70M
Financing Cash Flow	-411.30M	-530.00M	-686.80M	-836.50M	-949.90M

Dollar Tree Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 108.15
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DLTR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 108.15 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 102.98, above the 50-day MA of 95.50, and above the 200-day MA of 77.23, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.79 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.25 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DLTR.

Dollar Tree Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OLLI	78 Outperform	$7.81B	40.56	12.32%	―	8.70%	2.54%
DG	77 Outperform	$24.92B	21.59	15.69%	2.10%	4.77%	-23.73%
BJ	75 Outperform	$13.92B	24.18	32.76%	―	2.84%	11.25%
WMT	74 Outperform	$761.25B	40.92	22.80%	0.99%	4.22%	-0.17%
TGT	66 Neutral	$46.44B	11.23	29.08%	4.42%	-0.69%	2.03%
Sector *	62 Neutral	AU$2.86B	27.61	4.79%	5.15%	2.38%	-31.70%
DLTR	60 Neutral	$22.24B	―	19.25%	―	-20.46%	-202.26%

Dollar Tree Corporate Events

Dollar Tree Announces $2.5 Billion Share Buyback

On July 9, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors approved a $2.5 billion share repurchase authorization, reinstating the limit set in September 2021. This move underscores the company’s commitment to delivering value to shareholders and reflects confidence in its long-term cash flow generation capabilities. The authorization allows for stock purchases in the open market or through private transactions, with no expiration date, indicating a strategic focus on capital allocation and shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (DLTR) stock is a Hold with a $112.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dollar Tree stock, see the DLTR Stock Forecast page.

Dollar Tree Sells Family Dollar for $1 Billion

On July 5, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. completed the sale of Family Dollar Stores, LLC to 1959 Holdings, LLC for an aggregate base purchase price of $1,007.5 million in cash, subject to adjustments. The net proceeds from the sale are estimated to be approximately $800 million, which includes $665 million paid at closing and $135 million from monetization of cash prior to closing, with final adjustments expected 90 days post-closing.

The most recent analyst rating on (DLTR) stock is a Hold with a $112.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dollar Tree stock, see the DLTR Stock Forecast page.

Dollar Tree Completes Sale of Family Dollar

On July 7, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. announced the completion of its sale of the Family Dollar business to Brigade Capital Management and Macellum Capital Management for $1,007.5 million in cash. The transaction, initially announced on March 26, 2025, is expected to provide Dollar Tree with approximately $800 million in net proceeds and $375 million in tax benefits from losses on the sale. This strategic move allows Dollar Tree to focus on its core business, aiming to accelerate growth and innovation in the value retail sector. The company will also engage in a Transition Services Agreement, which will reduce SG&A expenses.

The most recent analyst rating on (DLTR) stock is a Hold with a $112.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dollar Tree stock, see the DLTR Stock Forecast page.

Dollar Tree Amends By-Laws and Holds Annual Meeting

On June 19, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. amended its By-Laws to reduce the number of directors from twelve to eleven. During the same day, the company held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where all director nominees were elected for a one-year term. Shareholders also approved the executive compensation, ratified KPMG LLP as the independent auditor for 2025, and adopted the 2025 Employee Stock Purchase Plan.

The most recent analyst rating on (DLTR) stock is a Hold with a $112.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dollar Tree stock, see the DLTR Stock Forecast page.

Dollar Tree Reports Strong Q1 2025 Financial Results

Dollar Tree, Inc. reported its first-quarter fiscal 2025 results, highlighting an 11.3% increase in net sales to $4.6 billion, driven by a 5.4% rise in same-store sales. The company completed over $500 million in share repurchases and updated its adjusted EPS outlook to reflect these repurchases. The sale of Family Dollar is on track to close in the second quarter, with expected net proceeds of approximately $800 million. Dollar Tree’s strategic initiatives, including store openings and conversions to a multi-price format, contributed to its performance, positioning the company to capitalize on economic uncertainties and enhance customer value.

The most recent analyst rating on (DLTR) stock is a Hold with a $85.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dollar Tree stock, see the DLTR Stock Forecast page.

Dollar Tree to Announce Q1 2025 Financial Results

On May 21, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. announced it will release its first quarter 2025 financial results on June 4, 2025, before the market opens, followed by a conference call for investors and analysts. The call will be led by CEO Mike Creedon and CFO Stewart Glendinning, providing insights into the company’s performance and allowing for a question-and-answer session, which could impact stakeholder perspectives on the company’s financial health and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (DLTR) stock is a Hold with a $112.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dollar Tree stock, see the DLTR Stock Forecast page.