Dollar Tree (DLTR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $23.37B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.09M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.68
• Revenue Growth: -20.46%
• EPS Growth: -202.26%
• Country: US
• Employees: 64,434
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 46
• Industry: Discount Stores
• EPS (TTM): 1.26
• Shares Outstanding: 208,695,820
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,093,664
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,090,518
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.07
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.71
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.08
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.72
• 1Y Price Target: $111.89
• Price Target Upside: -0.86% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 21

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $110.00 ▼(-2.53% Downside)

Dollar Tree's overall stock score reflects a mixed financial performance with challenges in profitability and valuation. Positive technical momentum and strategic corporate actions, including share buybacks and the sale of Family Dollar, provide a supportive backdrop. The most significant risks stem from ongoing net losses and valuation concerns, tempered by strategic growth initiatives and operational improvements.

Positive Factors

Earnings Outlook

Dollar Tree reported adjusted EPS and same-store sales for the first quarter that exceeded forecasts.

Pricing Strategy

Dollar Tree's value proposition is resonating with consumers, indicating strong performance even before the full impact of Multi-Price.

Sales Performance

DLTR's year-to-date comparable sales showcase a strong response to the elevated multi-price offering and growing trade-in.

Negative Factors

Expense Risks

Despite raising guidance, Dollar Tree anticipates significant profit headwinds in the second quarter due to increased tariff and labor costs.

Strategic Uncertainty

DLTR should trade at a discount to DG given its lack of a comprehensive digital strategy and greater uncertainty due to tariffs.

Tariff Costs

Concerns remain over Dollar Tree's multi-price rollout, including expense pressures from increased store complexity post-conversion.

Dollar Tree Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Dollar Tree, Inc. is a leading discount variety store chain in the United States, primarily focused on providing a wide range of products at the fixed price of one dollar. The company operates thousands of stores across the country, offering an extensive assortment of items, including household goods, groceries, party supplies, seasonal items, and health and beauty products. Dollar Tree's business model emphasizes affordability and value, catering to budget-conscious consumers in various demographics.

How the Company Makes Money

Dollar Tree generates revenue primarily through the sale of merchandise in its stores, all priced at one dollar. The company's revenue model is based on high volume sales of low-cost items, allowing it to attract value-seeking customers. Key revenue streams include product sales from its extensive inventory, which is sourced from a combination of direct manufacturers, wholesalers, and imports to keep costs low. Additionally, Dollar Tree benefits from economies of scale, as its large purchasing power enables it to negotiate favorable terms with suppliers. The company also enhances its profitability through efficient inventory management and cost control measures. While Dollar Tree traditionally focused on single-price items, its acquisition of Family Dollar has allowed it to expand its product offerings and reach a broader customer base, contributing to its earnings growth.

Dollar Tree Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Dollar Tree faces challenges with profitability and net losses, impacting overall financial health. Despite strong gross profit margins, the company struggles with net losses and inconsistent revenue growth. The balance sheet is moderately leveraged, and while cash flow generation is solid, negative return on equity is a concern.

Income Statement

Dollar Tree has seen some fluctuations in its profitability metrics. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is strong at 55.54%, indicating effective cost management. However, the net profit margin is negative, reflecting significant net losses. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with recent declines. EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively low, suggesting operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals moderate financial leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.02, which is typical for the retail industry but highlights a reliance on debt financing. The equity ratio stands at 21.36%, indicating a moderate level of equity financing. Return on equity is negative due to net losses, which is a concern for long-term sustainability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a mixed picture. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. Free cash flow has grown slightly, showing some improvement. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains negative, reflecting the impact of net losses on cash flow metrics.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	14.59B	17.58B	16.78B	15.41B	26.32B	25.51B
Gross Profit	8.10B	6.29B	6.02B	5.78B	7.74B	7.79B
EBITDA	1.96B	2.02B	-40.90M	3.00B	2.52B	2.57B
Net Income	-2.99B	-3.03B	-998.40M	1.62B	1.33B	1.34B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	18.29B	18.64B	22.02B	23.02B	21.72B	20.70B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.01B	1.26B	425.20M	642.80M	984.90M	1.42B
Total Debt	7.91B	7.83B	7.37B	10.13B	9.97B	9.64B
Total Liabilities	14.39B	14.67B	14.71B	14.27B	14.00B	13.41B
Stockholders Equity	3.90B	3.98B	7.31B	8.75B	7.72B	7.29B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.57B	1.56B	576.90M	361.00M	408.70M	1.82B
Operating Cash Flow	2.65B	2.86B	2.68B	1.61B	1.43B	2.72B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.47B	-1.70B	-2.11B	-1.25B	-1.02B	-889.70M
Financing Cash Flow	-559.10M	-411.30M	-530.00M	-686.80M	-836.50M	-949.90M

Dollar Tree Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 112.86
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DLTR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 112.86 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 114.08, above the 50-day MA of 109.30, and above the 200-day MA of 83.95, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.71 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DLTR.

Dollar Tree Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OLLI	78 Outperform	$8.01B	40.14	12.32%	―	8.70%	2.54%
WMT	73 Outperform	$766.52B	36.20	24.46%	0.95%	4.23%	38.05%
DG	72 Outperform	$24.32B	21.43	15.69%	2.12%	4.77%	-23.73%
TGT	72 Outperform	$43.67B	11.33	26.32%	4.59%	-1.55%	-11.41%
BJ	66 Neutral	$12.70B	22.30	30.84%	―	2.48%	9.41%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$20.46B	14.47	-3.60%	3.13%	2.63%	-6.18%
DLTR	60 Neutral	$23.37B	―	19.25%	―	-20.46%	-202.26%

Dollar Tree Corporate Events

Dollar Tree to Host Q2 Financial Results Call

On August 13, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. announced it will host a conference call on September 3, 2025, to discuss its second-quarter financial results for the period ending August 2, 2025. The call, led by CEO Mike Creedon and CFO Stewart Glendinning, aims to provide insights into the company’s financial performance and engage with investors and analysts, potentially impacting stakeholder perceptions and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (DLTR) stock is a Hold with a $67.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dollar Tree stock, see the DLTR Stock Forecast page.

Dollar Tree Announces $2.5 Billion Share Buyback

On July 9, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors approved a $2.5 billion share repurchase authorization, reinstating the limit set in September 2021. This move underscores the company’s commitment to delivering value to shareholders and reflects confidence in its long-term cash flow generation capabilities. The authorization allows for stock purchases in the open market or through private transactions, with no expiration date, indicating a strategic focus on capital allocation and shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (DLTR) stock is a Hold with a $112.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dollar Tree stock, see the DLTR Stock Forecast page.

Dollar Tree Sells Family Dollar for $1 Billion

On July 5, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. completed the sale of Family Dollar Stores, LLC to 1959 Holdings, LLC for an aggregate base purchase price of $1,007.5 million in cash, subject to adjustments. The net proceeds from the sale are estimated to be approximately $800 million, which includes $665 million paid at closing and $135 million from monetization of cash prior to closing, with final adjustments expected 90 days post-closing.

The most recent analyst rating on (DLTR) stock is a Hold with a $112.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dollar Tree stock, see the DLTR Stock Forecast page.

Dollar Tree Completes Sale of Family Dollar

On July 7, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. announced the completion of its sale of the Family Dollar business to Brigade Capital Management and Macellum Capital Management for $1,007.5 million in cash. The transaction, initially announced on March 26, 2025, is expected to provide Dollar Tree with approximately $800 million in net proceeds and $375 million in tax benefits from losses on the sale. This strategic move allows Dollar Tree to focus on its core business, aiming to accelerate growth and innovation in the value retail sector. The company will also engage in a Transition Services Agreement, which will reduce SG&A expenses.

The most recent analyst rating on (DLTR) stock is a Hold with a $112.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dollar Tree stock, see the DLTR Stock Forecast page.

Dollar Tree Amends By-Laws and Holds Annual Meeting

On June 19, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. amended its By-Laws to reduce the number of directors from twelve to eleven. During the same day, the company held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where all director nominees were elected for a one-year term. Shareholders also approved the executive compensation, ratified KPMG LLP as the independent auditor for 2025, and adopted the 2025 Employee Stock Purchase Plan.

The most recent analyst rating on (DLTR) stock is a Hold with a $112.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dollar Tree stock, see the DLTR Stock Forecast page.

Dollar Tree Reports Strong Q1 2025 Financial Results

Dollar Tree, Inc. reported its first-quarter fiscal 2025 results, highlighting an 11.3% increase in net sales to $4.6 billion, driven by a 5.4% rise in same-store sales. The company completed over $500 million in share repurchases and updated its adjusted EPS outlook to reflect these repurchases. The sale of Family Dollar is on track to close in the second quarter, with expected net proceeds of approximately $800 million. Dollar Tree’s strategic initiatives, including store openings and conversions to a multi-price format, contributed to its performance, positioning the company to capitalize on economic uncertainties and enhance customer value.

The most recent analyst rating on (DLTR) stock is a Hold with a $85.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dollar Tree stock, see the DLTR Stock Forecast page.

Dollar Tree to Announce Q1 2025 Financial Results

On May 21, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. announced it will release its first quarter 2025 financial results on June 4, 2025, before the market opens, followed by a conference call for investors and analysts. The call will be led by CEO Mike Creedon and CFO Stewart Glendinning, providing insights into the company’s performance and allowing for a question-and-answer session, which could impact stakeholder perspectives on the company’s financial health and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (DLTR) stock is a Hold with a $112.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dollar Tree stock, see the DLTR Stock Forecast page.