Dollar Tree (DLTR)
NASDAQ:DLTR
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Dollar Tree
(NASDAQ:DLTR)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$112.00
▲(9.16% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/24/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed fundamentals—strong operating cash flow but weak net profitability and elevated leverage—partly offset by constructive FY2026 guidance and operational progress from the latest earnings call. Technical signals are the main near-term drag given the stock’s downtrend and bearish momentum, while the moderate P/E provides some valuation support.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained, sizable operating and free cash flow gives Dollar Tree durable liquidity to fund capex, ~400 planned net new stores, buybacks and interest costs. Reliable cash conversion cushions the business through consumer cycles and supports strategic reinvestment without immediate reliance on equity financing.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Higher leverage reduces financial flexibility and raises refinancing and covenant risk, particularly as the company shifted to longer-dated term debt. Elevated debt amplifies the impact of margin or traffic weakness on solvency and constrains cash available for opportunistic investments or accelerated buybacks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained, sizable operating and free cash flow gives Dollar Tree durable liquidity to fund capex, ~400 planned net new stores, buybacks and interest costs. Reliable cash conversion cushions the business through consumer cycles and supports strategic reinvestment without immediate reliance on equity financing.
Read all positive factors
Dollar Tree (DLTR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$20.24B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.89M
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.9
Beta (1Y)0.68
Revenue Growth-39.27%
EPS Growth-182.36%
CountryUS
Employees153,032
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryDiscount Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.56
Shares Outstanding197,298,220
10 Day Avg. Volume2,294,666
30 Day Avg. Volume2,893,388
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.13
Price to Book (P/B)6.44
Price to Sales (P/S)1.25
P/FCF Ratio17.32
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.20
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.25
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.44
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.20
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$127.76Price Target Upside24.52% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering19
EPS Forecast (FY)6.73
Revenue Forecast (FY)$20.64B
Dollar Tree Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety retail stores. It operates in two segments, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. The Dollar Tree segment offers merchandise at the fixed price of $ 1.25. It provides consumable merchandise, including candy and...
How the Company Makes Money
Dollar Tree primarily makes money by selling merchandise in its Dollar Tree and Family Dollar retail stores. Revenue is generated when customers purchase products across key categories such as consumables (which tend to drive frequent trips and re...
Dollar Tree Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Details revenue contributions from different business segments, helping to identify which areas are most lucrative and where there may be potential for expansion.
Details revenue contributions from different business segments, helping to identify which areas are most lucrative and where there may be potential for expansion.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyDollar Tree Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 16, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 21, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasizes measurable operational and strategic progress — strong Q4 top-line growth (9% sales, 5% comps), margin expansion (+150 bps), record household penetration, multi-price rollouts, improved inventory discipline and robust free cash flow and buybacks. Management also highlighted clear FY2026 guidance and long-term SG&A targets. Key headwinds include a modest traffic decline, one-time restickering costs (~$100M), tariff and freight volatility, higher store payroll and liability costs, and weather-related disruption. On balance, the positive metrics, cash generation, and structural improvements outweigh the operational and macro uncertainties, though management notes continued vigilance on costs and traffic recovery.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Q4 net sales increased 9% year-over-year to $5.5 billion; comparable store sales grew 5% driven by a 6.3% increase in average ticket (traffic down 1.2%). Full-year net sales guidance for FY2026 is $20.5B–$20.7B with comps of 3%–4%.
Negative Updates
Traffic Decline and Price-Reset Impact
Traffic declined 1.2% in Q4. Management notes traffic disruption historically follows pricing resets (2022 saw a ~4% traffic decline lasting over a year); current traffic decline is more muted but remains a risk to future comps and is expected to be a key focus in FY2026.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth
Q4 net sales increased 9% year-over-year to $5.5 billion; comparable store sales grew 5% driven by a 6.3% increase in average ticket (traffic down 1.2%). Full-year net sales guidance for FY2026 is $20.5B–$20.7B with comps of 3%–4%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Dollar Tree guided fiscal 2026 net sales of $20.5–20.7 billion with comparable‑store sales growth of 3–4% (Q1 sales $4.9–5.0 billion, comps 3–4%), adjusted diluted EPS of $6.50–$6.90 (high‑teens earnings growth) and Q1 EPS $1.45–$1.60; management expects gross margin to be roughly flat (help from improved markdowns and mix offset by higher freight), operating‑margin expansion concentrated in Q2–Q3, corporate SG&A of $470–$490 million net of TSA (~$70 million TSA income expected), CapEx of $1.1–1.2 billion, net interest & other income ~ $85 million, an effective tax rate of 25.4%, and a diluted share count of ~199 million (no assumed repurchases); the plan contemplates ~400 gross new store openings and ~75 closings, cycling ~$100 million of prior stickering costs, realizing roughly $165 million of NOL cash tax benefits, and potential tariff relief that would likely flow through with ~4 months’ delay.Dollar Tree Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
52
Neutral
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 19.41B | 17.58B | 16.78B | 15.41B | 26.32B |
| Gross Profit | 7.07B | 6.29B | 6.02B | 5.78B | 7.74B |
| EBITDA | 2.25B | 2.02B | 2.17B | 2.46B | 2.53B |
| Net Income | 1.28B | -3.03B | -998.40M | 1.62B | 1.33B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 13.47B | 18.64B | 22.02B | 23.02B | 21.72B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 717.80M | 1.26B | 425.20M | 642.80M | 984.90M |
| Total Debt | 4.62B | 7.83B | 7.37B | 10.13B | 9.97B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.71B | 14.67B | 14.71B | 14.27B | 14.00B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.75B | 3.98B | 7.31B | 8.75B | 7.72B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.40B | 1.56B | 576.90M | 361.00M | 408.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.53B | 2.86B | 2.68B | 1.61B | 1.43B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -728.50M | -1.70B | -2.11B | -1.25B | -1.02B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.55B | -411.30M | -530.00M | -686.80M | -836.50M |
Dollar Tree Technical Analysis
Negative
102.60
Price Trends
116.88
Negative
119.34
Negative
111.49
Negative
Market Momentum
-3.26
Negative
35.02
Neutral
17.94
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DLTR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 102.6 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 107.84, below the 50-day MA of 116.88, and below the 200-day MA of 111.49, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 35.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.94 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DLTR.
Dollar Tree Risk Analysis
Dollar Tree disclosed 4 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Dollar Tree reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Dollar Tree Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $5.63B | 28.12 | 13.30% | ― | 12.58% | 7.80% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
61 Neutral | $22.58B | 59.42 | 1.10% | 3.48% | 2.12% | -40.75% | |
61 Neutral | $8.98B | 8.31 | 28.54% | 3.49% | 2.08% | -1.63% | |
56 Neutral | $20.24B | 18.87 | 34.83% | ― | -39.27% | -182.36% | |
55 Neutral | $26.37B | 20.87 | 18.66% | 1.88% | 4.86% | -4.51% | |
55 Neutral | $43.09B | 40.33 | 13.04% | 2.15% | -1.77% | -70.83% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
DLTR
Dollar Tree
102.60
30.86
43.02%
DG
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119.75
34.36
40.23%
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70.35
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12.65%
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Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding
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ACI
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Dollar Tree Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Dollar Tree Secures New $500 Million Term Loan
Neutral
Mar 23, 2026
On March 19, 2026, Dollar Tree, Inc. entered into a new $500 million term loan credit facility with Bank of America and a syndicate of lenders, maturing on March 19, 2029 and bearing interest at a rate tied to Term SOFR plus a margin that varies w...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Dollar Tree Posts Strong Q4, Sets Upbeat 2026 Outlook
Positive
Mar 16, 2026
On March 16, 2026, Dollar Tree, Inc. reported strong fourth-quarter and fiscal 2025 results from continuing operations, following the classification of its Family Dollar segment as discontinued operations. For the quarter ended January 31, 2026, n...
Financial Disclosures
Dollar Tree Schedules Q4 2025 Earnings Release and Call
Neutral
Feb 23, 2026
On February 23, 2026, Dollar Tree, Inc. announced it will release financial results for its fourth quarter 2025, which ended January 31, 2026, before the market opens on Monday, March 16, 2026. The company will host an earnings conference call at ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.