Dollar Tree (DLTR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $24.35B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.63M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.69
• Revenue Growth: -39.27%
• EPS Growth: -182.36%
• Country: US
• Employees: 64,434
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Discount Stores
• EPS (TTM): 1.21
• Shares Outstanding: 198,853,180
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,099,897
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,631,360
• PEG Ratio: -0.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.98
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.90
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.13
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.12
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.44
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.00
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 15.72
• 1Y Price Target: $117.50
• Price Target Upside: -4.03% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 19
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $114.00 ▼(-6.89% Downside)

Dollar Tree's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, particularly in profitability and leverage, which are partially offset by strong technical indicators and positive earnings call guidance. The valuation remains a concern due to negative earnings, but strategic initiatives and positive momentum provide a balanced outlook.

Positive Factors

Multi-Price Strategy Expansion

The multi-price strategy enhances profitability by offering higher-value items, increasing profit per item and attracting diverse customers.

Increased Customer Base

Expanding customer base, especially among higher-income households, indicates strong brand appeal and potential for sustained revenue growth.

Gross Margin Improvement

Improved gross margins reflect effective cost management and pricing strategies, supporting long-term profitability and competitive positioning.

Negative Factors

High Debt Levels

Significant leverage can constrain financial flexibility, increase risk, and impact the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities.

Negative Free Cash Flow

Negative free cash flow suggests challenges in funding operations and investments, potentially affecting long-term financial health.

SG&A Rate Increase

Rising SG&A costs can pressure margins and profitability, requiring effective cost management to maintain financial stability.

Dollar Tree Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety retail stores. It operates in two segments, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. The Dollar Tree segment offers merchandise at the fixed price of $ 1.25. It provides consumable merchandise, including candy and food, and health and personal care, as well as everyday consumables, such as household paper and chemicals, and frozen and refrigerated food; variety merchandise comprising toys, durable housewares, gifts, stationery, party goods, greeting cards, softlines, arts and crafts supplies, and other items; and seasonal goods that include Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day merchandise. As of January 29, 2022, this segment operated 8,061 stores under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands, as well as 15 distribution centers in the United States and 2 distribution centers in Canada. The Family Dollar segment operates general merchandise retail discount stores that offer consumable merchandise, which comprise food and beverages, tobacco, health and personal care, household chemicals, paper products, hardware and automotive supplies, diapers, batteries, and pet food and supplies; and home products, including housewares, home décor, and giftware, as well as domestics, such as comforters, sheets, and towels. It also provides apparel and accessories merchandise comprising clothing, fashion accessories, and shoes; and seasonal and electronics merchandise that include Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day merchandise, as well as personal electronics, which comprise pre-paid cellular phones and services, stationery and school supplies, and toys. As of January 29, 2022, this segment operated 8,016 stores under the Family Dollar brand; and 11 distribution centers. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Chesapeake, Virginia.

How the Company Makes Money

Dollar Tree generates revenue primarily through the sale of its wide assortment of products at fixed price points. The company’s revenue model is based on a high-volume, low-margin strategy, where it aims to attract a large customer base seeking affordable goods. Key revenue streams include in-store sales from Dollar Tree and Family Dollar locations, as well as e-commerce sales. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships with suppliers that enable it to source products at lower costs, which helps maintain its pricing structure. Seasonal merchandise and exclusive product offerings further enhance sales, while cost control measures and efficient inventory management contribute to profitability.

Dollar Tree Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Dollar Tree faces significant financial challenges, particularly with profitability and leverage. The company is experiencing declining revenues and substantial losses, as reflected in the negative net profit margin and return on equity. While there are strengths in operational efficiency and cash flow generation, the high debt levels and negative growth trends pose risks to financial stability.

Income Statement

Dollar Tree's income statement shows significant challenges with a negative net profit margin of -25.17% in TTM, indicating substantial losses. The revenue growth rate is also negative at -11.42%, suggesting declining sales. However, the gross profit margin remains relatively strong at 63.29%, and the EBIT margin is positive at 11.15%, showing some operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.36, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risks. Return on equity is negative at -61.99%, reflecting poor profitability. However, the company maintains a reasonable equity ratio, suggesting some balance in its financial structure.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a positive free cash flow growth rate of 7.06% in TTM, indicating improving cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.72, suggesting strong cash flow relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is lower at 0.67, reflecting challenges in converting earnings to free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	18.96B	17.58B	16.78B	15.41B	26.32B	25.51B
Gross Profit	6.81B	6.29B	6.02B	5.78B	7.74B	7.79B
EBITDA	1.73B	2.02B	2.17B	2.46B	2.53B	2.57B
Net Income	-2.95B	-3.03B	-998.40M	1.62B	1.33B	1.34B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	13.66B	18.64B	22.02B	23.02B	21.72B	20.70B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	594.80M	1.26B	425.20M	642.80M	984.90M	1.42B
Total Debt	5.23B	7.83B	7.37B	10.13B	9.97B	9.64B
Total Liabilities	10.19B	14.67B	14.71B	14.27B	14.00B	13.41B
Stockholders Equity	3.46B	3.98B	7.31B	8.75B	7.72B	7.29B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.64B	1.56B	576.90M	361.00M	408.70M	1.82B
Operating Cash Flow	2.03B	2.86B	2.68B	1.61B	1.43B	2.72B
Investing Cash Flow	-437.30M	-1.70B	-2.11B	-1.25B	-1.02B	-889.70M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.70B	-411.30M	-530.00M	-686.80M	-836.50M	-949.90M

Dollar Tree Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 122.44
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DLTR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 122.44 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 106.71, above the 50-day MA of 100.25, and above the 200-day MA of 94.01, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.37 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.26 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DLTR.

Dollar Tree Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OLLI	74 Outperform	$7.44B	35.17	12.63%	―	10.14%	5.01%
DG	69 Neutral	$29.14B	22.86	16.45%	1.88%	4.86%	-4.51%
KR	69 Neutral	$41.56B	57.61	7.76%	2.14%	-1.77%	-70.80%
ACI	64 Neutral	$9.46B	10.19	32.04%	3.48%	2.08%	-1.63%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
TSN	62 Neutral	$19.70B	41.79	2.60%	3.53%	2.12%	-40.75%
DLTR	60 Neutral	$24.35B	―	20.07%	―	-39.27%	-182.36%

Dollar Tree Corporate Events

Dollar Tree Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results

On December 3, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. reported its financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2025, which ended on November 1, 2025. The company achieved a 9.4% increase in net sales to $4.7 billion, with same-store net sales growth of 4.2%. The company’s strategic pricing initiatives and multi-price format contributed to a record Halloween season and improved gross margins. Dollar Tree opened 106 new stores and converted 646 stores to its 3.0 multi-price format. Looking ahead, the company has revised its full-year fiscal 2025 outlook, projecting net sales between $19.35 billion and $19.45 billion and adjusted EPS from continuing operations between $5.60 and $5.80, reflecting its updated operating outlook and share repurchases.

Dollar Tree to Discuss Q3 2025 Financial Results

On November 19, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. announced it will host a conference call on December 3, 2025, to discuss its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, which ended on November 1, 2025. The call, led by CEO Mike Creedon and CFO Stewart Glendinning, will provide insights into the company’s performance and future outlook, potentially impacting investor sentiment and market positioning.

Dollar Tree Expands Commercial Paper Program to $2.5B

On November 10, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. announced an increase in its commercial paper program, allowing for the issuance of unsecured commercial paper notes up to $2.5 billion, effective until March 20, 2026. This expansion from the previous $1.5 billion limit aims to enhance the company’s financial flexibility, potentially impacting its operational capabilities and market positioning.

Dollar Tree Reaffirms Financial Outlook at Investor Day

On October 15, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. hosted its 2025 Investor Day at the NASDAQ MarketSite in New York City, where it reaffirmed its financial outlook for the third quarter and fiscal year 2025. The company outlined a strategic plan for 2026-2028, projecting a 12 to 15 percent compounded annual growth rate in earnings per share, driven by a long-term growth algorithm and discrete cost benefits. The event highlighted the company’s focus on enhancing its product assortment, customer experience, and supply chain to drive profitable growth as a standalone banner, separate from Family Dollar.

Dollar Tree Announces Upcoming Investor Conference

On September 16, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. announced it will host an Investor Conference at the NASDAQ MarketSite in New York on October 15, 2025. The event will feature presentations from the CEO and CFO, outlining a refreshed long-term strategy and financial outlook for the company, with a live webcast available to the public.

Dollar Tree Announces CMO Retirement and Successor

On September 9, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. announced the planned retirement of Chief Merchandising Officer Richard McNeely in April 2026, with Brent Beebe, the current Senior Vice President of Merchandising, set to succeed him. This leadership transition is expected to ensure continuity in Dollar Tree’s merchandising strategy, with Beebe bringing over 20 years of experience to the role, having already made significant contributions to the company since joining in 2020.