Dollar Tree (DLTR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $20.33B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.61M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.67
• Revenue Growth: -9.88%
• EPS Growth: -205.57%
• Country: US
• Employees: 64,434
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 73
• Industry: Discount Stores
• EPS (TTM): 1.26
• Shares Outstanding: 210,147,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,508,930
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,605,784
• PEG Ratio: 0.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.62
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.75
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.23
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.23
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.96
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.28
• 1Y Price Target: $87.47
• Price Target Upside: -1.30% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 18

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $104.00 ▲(17.35%Upside)

Dollar Tree's overall score is driven by strong technical analysis, indicating bullish momentum in the stock's price. However, the company's financial performance and valuation present significant concerns, particularly the negative net income and high leverage. Corporate events add a positive strategic perspective, but the lack of earnings call data prevents a full assessment of management's guidance and sentiment.

Positive Factors

Product Performance

The multi-price 3.0 stores showed a notable improvement in performance, with a 220 basis points comp lift compared to other formats.

Revenue Strategy

Dollar Tree's previous price adjustment from $1 to $1.25 was accepted by consumers, suggesting that upcoming price increases may also be well-received.

Sales Growth

Strong sales momentum, growth in both traffic & ticket; momentum has continued into 2Q.

Negative Factors

Earnings Pressure

2Q EPS are expected to be significantly lower year-over-year due to temporary factors.

Expense Pressures

Expense pressures are expected to increase due to operational complexities and labor hour expenses.

Tariff Risks

Tariffs remain a wild card with recent court rulings and China rhetoric, impacting margin sustainability.

Dollar Tree Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety retail stores. It operates in two segments, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. The Dollar Tree segment offers merchandise at the fixed price of $ 1.25. It provides consumable merchandise, including candy and food, and health and personal care, as well as everyday consumables, such as household paper and chemicals, and frozen and refrigerated food; variety merchandise comprising toys, durable housewares, gifts, stationery, party goods, greeting cards, softlines, arts and crafts supplies, and other items; and seasonal goods that include Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day merchandise. As of January 29, 2022, this segment operated 8,061 stores under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands, as well as 15 distribution centers in the United States and 2 distribution centers in Canada. The Family Dollar segment operates general merchandise retail discount stores that offer consumable merchandise, which comprise food and beverages, tobacco, health and personal care, household chemicals, paper products, hardware and automotive supplies, diapers, batteries, and pet food and supplies; and home products, including housewares, home décor, and giftware, as well as domestics, such as comforters, sheets, and towels. It also provides apparel and accessories merchandise comprising clothing, fashion accessories, and shoes; and seasonal and electronics merchandise that include Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day merchandise, as well as personal electronics, which comprise pre-paid cellular phones and services, stationery and school supplies, and toys. As of January 29, 2022, this segment operated 8,016 stores under the Family Dollar brand; and 11 distribution centers. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Chesapeake, Virginia.

How the Company Makes Money

Dollar Tree generates revenue primarily through the sale of its diverse product offerings at its retail locations. The company's key revenue streams include consumables, which cover food, snacks, and household supplies; seasonal and party goods, which are popular during holidays and special occasions; and a variety of general merchandise such as toys, apparel, and home decor. Dollar Tree also benefits from economies of scale by purchasing large quantities of goods at low prices and maintaining a low-cost operating model. The company's earnings are supported by its extensive network of physical stores, strategic location selection, and efficient supply chain management. Additionally, Dollar Tree's acquisition of Family Dollar expanded its market presence and diversified its customer base, contributing to its overall revenue growth.

Dollar Tree Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Dollar Tree's financial health shows mixed results. While the cash flow remains positive with a decent free cash flow, the income statement reveals declining profitability with a negative net income, and the balance sheet indicates increased leverage, raising concerns about financial stability.

Income Statement

Dollar Tree's income statement shows a concerning trend with declining profitability. The TTM data reveals a negative net income, indicating financial stress. Gross profit margin remains stable, but the net profit margin is negative due to significant net losses. Revenue showed growth in prior years, but TTM figures suggest a downturn.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates a relatively stable financial structure with a balanced debt-to-equity ratio, though with high total liabilities. The equity ratio is healthy, suggesting that a significant portion of assets is financed by equity. However, the overall leverage increase in TTM raises concerns about financial risk.

Cash Flow

Cash flow metrics are mixed, with positive operating cash flow and a decent free cash flow, which has grown over the past year. However, the negative net income impacts the efficiency ratios, and the reliance on debt financing in TTM could present future liquidity challenges.

Breakdown
Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement		Total Revenue
17.58B	30.60B	28.33B	26.32B	25.51B
	Gross Profit
6.29B	9.33B	8.94B	7.74B	7.79B
	EBIT
1.46B	-881.80M	2.24B	1.81B	1.89B
	EBITDA
2.02B	-40.90M	3.00B	2.52B	2.57B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-3.03B	-998.40M	1.62B	1.33B	1.34B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.26B	684.90M	642.80M	984.90M	1.42B
	Total Assets
18.64B	22.02B	23.02B	21.72B	20.70B
	Total Debt
7.83B	10.39B	10.13B	9.97B	9.64B
	Net Debt
6.57B	9.70B	9.48B	8.99B	8.22B
	Total Liabilities
14.67B	14.71B	14.27B	14.00B	13.41B
	Stockholders Equity
3.98B	7.31B	8.75B	7.72B	7.29B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
1.56B	576.90M	361.00M	408.70M	1.82B
	Operating Cash Flow
2.86B	2.68B	1.61B	1.43B	2.72B
	Investing Cash Flow
-1.70B	-2.11B	-1.25B	-1.02B	-889.70M
	Financing Cash Flow
-411.30M	-530.00M	-686.80M	-836.50M	-949.90M

Dollar Tree Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 88.62
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DLTR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 88.62 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 88.53, above the 50-day MA of 81.19, and above the 200-day MA of 74.23, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.97 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.86 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DLTR.

Dollar Tree Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WMT	73 Outperform	$798.25B	42.75	22.80%	0.89%	4.22%	-0.17%
OLLI	72 Outperform	$6.87B	33.79	12.32%	―	8.70%	2.54%
BJ	71 Outperform	$14.75B	25.99	32.76%	―	2.84%	11.25%
DG	68 Neutral	$21.37B	19.00	15.69%	2.10%	4.77%	-23.73%
DLTR	65 Neutral	$20.33B	―	19.25%	―	-9.88%	-205.57%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$6.90B	11.24	2.93%	3.89%	2.68%	-24.71%
TGT	52 Neutral	$42.40B	10.26	29.08%	4.68%	-0.69%	2.03%

Dollar Tree Corporate Events

Dollar Tree Reports Strong Q1 2025 Financial Results

Dollar Tree, Inc. reported its first-quarter fiscal 2025 results, highlighting an 11.3% increase in net sales to $4.6 billion, driven by a 5.4% rise in same-store sales. The company completed over $500 million in share repurchases and updated its adjusted EPS outlook to reflect these repurchases. The sale of Family Dollar is on track to close in the second quarter, with expected net proceeds of approximately $800 million. Dollar Tree’s strategic initiatives, including store openings and conversions to a multi-price format, contributed to its performance, positioning the company to capitalize on economic uncertainties and enhance customer value.

The most recent analyst rating on (DLTR) stock is a Hold with a $85.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dollar Tree stock, see the DLTR Stock Forecast page.

Dollar Tree to Announce Q1 2025 Financial Results

On May 21, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. announced it will release its first quarter 2025 financial results on June 4, 2025, before the market opens, followed by a conference call for investors and analysts. The call will be led by CEO Mike Creedon and CFO Stewart Glendinning, providing insights into the company’s performance and allowing for a question-and-answer session, which could impact stakeholder perspectives on the company’s financial health and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (DLTR) stock is a Hold with a $112.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dollar Tree stock, see the DLTR Stock Forecast page.

Dollar Tree Secures New Credit Agreements with JPMorgan

On March 21, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. entered into two significant credit agreements with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. The first is a $1,500 million revolving credit facility maturing in 2030, and the second is a $1,000 million 364-day revolving credit facility maturing in 2026. These agreements, which include various covenants and conditions, replace the company’s previous credit arrangement and are expected to enhance Dollar Tree’s financial flexibility. The agreements allow for voluntary repayment without penalties, supporting the company’s strategic financial management.

Dollar Tree to Divest Family Dollar for $1,007 Million

On March 26, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. announced its decision to divest its Family Dollar business to Brigade and Macellum for approximately $1,007 million, with net proceeds expected to be around $804 million. This strategic move, concluded after a thorough review, is anticipated to allow Dollar Tree to concentrate on its long-term growth and profitability. The sale is expected to close in about 90 days, subject to customary conditions, including antitrust approval. The financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024 showed a slight increase in net sales by 0.7% to $5 billion, despite a decline in gross profit and operating income. The company also reported a diluted loss per share of $17.17, while adjusted diluted EPS from continuing operations was $2.11.

Dollar Tree Appoints New CFO Stewart Glendinning

On March 4, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. announced the appointment of Stewart Glendinning as the new Chief Financial Officer, effective March 30, 2025. Glendinning, who joined the company earlier in 2025, has been involved in enterprise-wide transformation initiatives and the review of strategic alternatives for the Family Dollar business. This leadership change is expected to support Dollar Tree’s growth ambitions for 2025, as emphasized by CEO Mike Creedon. The company also announced a conference call scheduled for March 26, 2025, to discuss financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended February 1, 2025.