Dollar Tree (DLTR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $28.08B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.94M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.62
• Revenue Growth: -39.27%
• EPS Growth: -182.36%
• Country: US
• Employees: 64,434
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Discount Stores
• EPS (TTM): 1.21
• Shares Outstanding: 198,853,180
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,668,377
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,936,298
• PEG Ratio: -0.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.98
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.90
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.13
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.88
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.31
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.64
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.03
• 1Y Price Target: $127.73
• Price Target Upside: -8.73% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 17
• EPS Forecast (FY): 5.74
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $19.42B

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $149.00 ▲(6.47% Upside)

Dollar Tree's overall stock score reflects a mixed outlook. The most significant factor is the company's strong technical momentum, suggesting positive investor sentiment. However, financial performance challenges, particularly in profitability and leverage, weigh heavily on the score. The positive earnings call provides some optimism with improved sales and strategic initiatives, but valuation concerns remain due to negative earnings.

Positive Factors

Multi-Price Strategy

The multi-price strategy enhances profitability by offering higher-value items, generating more profit per item and supporting long-term growth.

Increased Customer Base

Expanding customer base, especially among higher-income households, indicates strong brand appeal and potential for sustained revenue growth.

Gross Margin Improvement

Improved gross margins through effective merchandise management and cost controls support long-term profitability and financial health.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

Significant leverage poses financial risks, potentially limiting the company's ability to invest in growth and weather economic downturns.

Negative Traffic Impact

Declining store traffic could indicate challenges in attracting customers, potentially impacting sales and market share over time.

Negative Free Cash Flow

Negative free cash flow, despite positive operating cash, suggests capital expenditure pressures, impacting financial flexibility and investment capacity.

Dollar Tree Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety retail stores. It operates in two segments, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. The Dollar Tree segment offers merchandise at the fixed price of $ 1.25. It provides consumable merchandise, including candy and food, and health and personal care, as well as everyday consumables, such as household paper and chemicals, and frozen and refrigerated food; variety merchandise comprising toys, durable housewares, gifts, stationery, party goods, greeting cards, softlines, arts and crafts supplies, and other items; and seasonal goods that include Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day merchandise. As of January 29, 2022, this segment operated 8,061 stores under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands, as well as 15 distribution centers in the United States and 2 distribution centers in Canada. The Family Dollar segment operates general merchandise retail discount stores that offer consumable merchandise, which comprise food and beverages, tobacco, health and personal care, household chemicals, paper products, hardware and automotive supplies, diapers, batteries, and pet food and supplies; and home products, including housewares, home décor, and giftware, as well as domestics, such as comforters, sheets, and towels. It also provides apparel and accessories merchandise comprising clothing, fashion accessories, and shoes; and seasonal and electronics merchandise that include Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day merchandise, as well as personal electronics, which comprise pre-paid cellular phones and services, stationery and school supplies, and toys. As of January 29, 2022, this segment operated 8,016 stores under the Family Dollar brand; and 11 distribution centers. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Chesapeake, Virginia.

How the Company Makes Money

Dollar Tree generates revenue primarily through the sale of its wide assortment of products at fixed price points. The company’s revenue model is based on a high-volume, low-margin strategy, where it aims to attract a large customer base seeking affordable goods. Key revenue streams include in-store sales from Dollar Tree and Family Dollar locations, as well as e-commerce sales. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships with suppliers that enable it to source products at lower costs, which helps maintain its pricing structure. Seasonal merchandise and exclusive product offerings further enhance sales, while cost control measures and efficient inventory management contribute to profitability.

Dollar Tree Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Dollar Tree's financial performance is challenged by declining revenue and profitability, as evidenced by negative net income and revenue growth. The balance sheet shows high leverage, which could impact financial stability. Cash flow remains a relative strength, but declining free cash flow growth is a concern.

Income Statement

Dollar Tree's income statement shows a concerning trend with declining revenue and negative net income in the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). The gross profit margin remains stable, but the net profit margin has turned negative, indicating profitability challenges. Revenue growth is negative, reflecting a downturn in sales performance.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risks. Return on equity is negative, reflecting poor profitability relative to shareholder equity. However, the equity ratio is reasonable, suggesting some stability in asset financing.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth, although the company maintains a positive free cash flow to net income ratio. Operating cash flow coverage is moderate, indicating some ability to cover net income with operating cash flows.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	18.96B	17.58B	16.78B	15.41B	26.32B	25.51B
Gross Profit	6.81B	6.29B	6.02B	5.78B	7.74B	7.79B
EBITDA	2.06B	2.02B	2.17B	2.46B	2.53B	2.57B
Net Income	-2.92B	-3.03B	-998.40M	1.62B	1.33B	1.34B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	13.66B	18.64B	22.02B	23.02B	21.72B	20.70B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	594.80M	1.26B	425.20M	642.80M	984.90M	1.42B
Total Debt	5.23B	7.83B	7.37B	10.13B	9.97B	9.64B
Total Liabilities	10.19B	14.67B	14.71B	14.27B	14.00B	13.41B
Stockholders Equity	3.46B	3.98B	7.31B	8.75B	7.72B	7.29B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.61B	1.56B	576.90M	361.00M	408.70M	1.82B
Operating Cash Flow	2.38B	2.86B	2.68B	1.61B	1.43B	2.72B
Investing Cash Flow	-809.10M	-1.70B	-2.11B	-1.25B	-1.02B	-889.70M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.70B	-411.30M	-530.00M	-686.80M	-836.50M	-949.90M

Dollar Tree Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 139.95
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DLTR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 139.95 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 129.77, above the 50-day MA of 119.02, and above the 200-day MA of 102.32, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 5.78 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.84 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.89 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DLTR.

Dollar Tree Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OLLI	73 Outperform	$7.19B	32.25	12.96%	―	12.58%	7.80%
DG	73 Outperform	$33.40B	26.20	16.45%	1.88%	4.86%	-4.51%
TSN	69 Neutral	$20.91B	44.37	2.60%	3.48%	2.12%	-40.75%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
DLTR	61 Neutral	$28.08B	-10.39	20.07%	―	-39.27%	-182.36%
KR	56 Neutral	$39.55B	57.24	7.75%	2.15%	-1.77%	-70.83%
ACI	54 Neutral	$8.93B	11.19	29.65%	3.49%	2.08%	-1.63%

Dollar Tree Corporate Events

Dollar Tree Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results

On December 3, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. reported its financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2025, which ended on November 1, 2025. The company achieved a 9.4% increase in net sales to $4.7 billion, with same-store net sales growth of 4.2%. The company’s strategic pricing initiatives and multi-price format contributed to a record Halloween season and improved gross margins. Dollar Tree opened 106 new stores and converted 646 stores to its 3.0 multi-price format. Looking ahead, the company has revised its full-year fiscal 2025 outlook, projecting net sales between $19.35 billion and $19.45 billion and adjusted EPS from continuing operations between $5.60 and $5.80, reflecting its updated operating outlook and share repurchases.

The most recent analyst rating on (DLTR) stock is a Hold with a $108.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dollar Tree stock, see the DLTR Stock Forecast page.

Dollar Tree to Discuss Q3 2025 Financial Results

On November 19, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. announced it will host a conference call on December 3, 2025, to discuss its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, which ended on November 1, 2025. The call, led by CEO Mike Creedon and CFO Stewart Glendinning, will provide insights into the company’s performance and future outlook, potentially impacting investor sentiment and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (DLTR) stock is a Sell with a $103.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dollar Tree stock, see the DLTR Stock Forecast page.

Dollar Tree Expands Commercial Paper Program to $2.5B

On November 10, 2025, Dollar Tree, Inc. announced an increase in its commercial paper program, allowing for the issuance of unsecured commercial paper notes up to $2.5 billion, effective until March 20, 2026. This expansion from the previous $1.5 billion limit aims to enhance the company’s financial flexibility, potentially impacting its operational capabilities and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (DLTR) stock is a Sell with a $103.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dollar Tree stock, see the DLTR Stock Forecast page.