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Kroger Company
(NYSE:KR)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$58.00
▼(-12.15% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/27/26
The score is primarily held back by pressured financial fundamentals (notably thinner profitability and an elevated leverage profile) and weak technicals (price below major moving averages with bearish MACD). These are partly offset by a constructive earnings call featuring reaffirmed guidance, profitable and fast-growing eCommerce, and cost savings ahead of plan, while valuation remains a headwind due to a high P/E despite a moderate dividend yield.
Positive Factors
eCommerce growth & profitability
Sustained digital growth and structural profitability in eCommerce shift Kroger from a cost center to a margin-accretive channel. Store-based fulfillment and partnerships (DoorDash, Uber Eats) lower fulfillment costs, scale convenience demand, deepen household engagement, and create a durable revenue stream with improving unit economics.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
A materially higher leverage profile increases financing risk and reduces strategic optionality. Elevated debt amplifies earnings volatility from margin pressures, constrains M&A and capital projects, and raises refinancing and interest-cost sensitivity if cash flow weakens, making recovery plans more fragile.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
eCommerce growth & profitability
Sustained digital growth and structural profitability in eCommerce shift Kroger from a cost center to a margin-accretive channel. Store-based fulfillment and partnerships (DoorDash, Uber Eats) lower fulfillment costs, scale convenience demand, deepen household engagement, and create a durable revenue stream with improving unit economics.
Read all positive factors
Kroger Company Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Store Count
Indicates the total number of retail locations, highlighting the company's market reach and potential for customer engagement. A growing store count can signal expansion and increased market penetration.
Indicates the total number of retail locations, highlighting the company's market reach and potential for customer engagement. A growing store count can signal expansion and increased market penetration.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyKroger Company (KR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$34.02B
Dividend Yield2.15%
Average Volume (3M)7.77M
Price to Earnings (P/E)32.2
Beta (1Y)-0.19
Revenue Growth1.14%
EPS Growth-53.47%
CountryUS
Employees409,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryGrocery Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.73
Shares Outstanding612,647,300
10 Day Avg. Volume10,058,933
30 Day Avg. Volume7,773,828
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.70
Price to Book (P/B)6.91
Price to Sales (P/S)0.28
P/FCF Ratio12.23
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.75
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.40
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.73
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.62
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$69.00Price Target Upside4.51% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)5.2
Revenue Forecast (FY)$151.18B
Kroger Company Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The Kroger Co. functions as a significant retail entity throughout the United States, encompassing a varied collection of store formats. Its operations include integrated food and drug stores, which stock a broad range of products from natural and...
How the Company Makes Money
Kroger primarily makes money by selling consumer goods through its grocery retail operations. Its largest revenue stream is product sales in stores and through digital channels, spanning fresh foods, packaged foods, beverages, household consumable...
Kroger Company Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jun 18, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a constructive and action-oriented tone: management reported tangible progress across core metrics (1% identical sales ex-fuel, eCommerce +19% and now profitable, Our Brands +175 bps vs. national brands, media >20% growth, adjusted EPS +6%) while also candidly outlining margin pressures (gross margin down 9 bps), pharmacy and inflation headwinds (IRA ~130 bps, brand-to-generic ~40 bps), higher transportation costs (~15 bps), and execution gaps across the store fleet. Cost-savings execution (COGS savings 30% ahead of plan) and strong balance-sheet metrics (net debt/EBITDA 1.75x) provide funding and flexibility to invest in price and operations. Overall, the positive operational and financial progress, clear plans for savings and reinvestment, and the achievement of eCommerce profitability outweigh the disclosed challenges, but risks remain in near-term inflation/transportation and store execution consistency.Positive Updates
Identical Sales Growth and Core Momentum
Identical sales excluding fuel of 1% in Q1, led by strong performance in eCommerce, fresh categories, and Our Brands. Loyal households grew for the 17th consecutive quarter, and Kroger outperformed Circana's Rest of Market, marking the best performance vs. traditional grocery competitors in over three years.
Negative Updates
Margin Headwinds and Inflation-Related Pressures
FIFO gross margin rate (ex. rent/dep/amort, fuel, adjustments) decreased 9 basis points year-over-year. Management expects inflationary pressure to increase later in the year and noted egg deflation represented a 64 basis-point headwind to identical sales in the quarter.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Identical Sales Growth and Core Momentum
Identical sales excluding fuel of 1% in Q1, led by strong performance in eCommerce, fresh categories, and Our Brands. Loyal households grew for the 17th consecutive quarter, and Kroger outperformed Circana's Rest of Market, marking the best performance vs. traditional grocery competitors in over three years.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Kroger reaffirmed full‑year guidance and said Q2 identical sales excluding fuel should be roughly in line with Q1 (Q1 = +1% identical sales ex‑fuel), with Q2 adjusted net EPS expected to be in line with last year and growth accelerating in the back half as cost‑savings ramp. Key Q1 metrics included adjusted EPS of $1.58 (up 6% YoY), adjusted FIFO operating profit of $1.5 billion, FIFO gross margin rate down 9 bps YoY (transportation added ~15 bps headwind), OG&A up 16 bps, eCommerce growth of 19% (convenience orders <1 hour ≈50% of digital growth), perfect order rates +8%, eCom (including media) turned profitable and eCom savings/COST targets (including the previously disclosed ~$400M eCom improvement) are ahead of plan (COGS savings 30% ahead of plan); Our Brands outpaced national brands by 175 bps, egg deflation cost ~64 bps to comp, the Inflation Reduction Act was ~130 bps headwind and brand‑to‑generic ~40 bps, fuel reward redemptions were +10% while gallons were slightly down but Kroger outpaced industry gallons by >400 bps, and net total debt/adjusted EBITDA was 1.75x (vs. target range 2.3–2.5x).Kroger Company Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
44
Neutral
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 148.65B | 147.64B | 147.12B | 150.04B | 148.26B | 137.89B |
| Gross Profit | 34.46B | 34.40B | 33.40B | 33.36B | 31.78B | 30.35B |
| EBITDA | 5.60B | 5.76B | 7.64B | 7.03B | 7.02B | 6.05B |
| Net Income | 1.05B | 1.02B | 2.67B | 2.16B | 2.24B | 1.66B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 50.29B | 49.94B | 52.62B | 50.51B | 49.62B | 49.09B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.87B | 4.58B | 5.27B | 3.10B | 2.14B | 2.90B |
| Total Debt | 23.52B | 24.68B | 25.08B | 19.25B | 20.41B | 20.44B |
| Total Liabilities | 43.81B | 44.01B | 44.34B | 38.90B | 39.61B | 39.66B |
| Stockholders Equity | 6.48B | 5.93B | 8.29B | 11.62B | 10.04B | 9.45B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.89B | 3.35B | 1.78B | 2.88B | 1.23B | 3.58B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.99B | 7.21B | 5.79B | 6.79B | 4.31B | 6.19B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.13B | -3.91B | -3.23B | -3.75B | -3.02B | -2.61B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.63B | -3.98B | -490.00M | -2.17B | -2.29B | -3.44B |
Kroger Company Technical Analysis
Negative
66.02
Price Trends
64.52
Negative
67.26
Negative
65.65
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.10
Positive
35.37
Neutral
25.49
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 66.02 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 61.25, above the 50-day MA of 64.52, and above the 200-day MA of 65.65, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.49 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for KR.
Kroger Company Risk Analysis
Kroger Company disclosed 15 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Kroger Company reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Kroger Company Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $7.95B | 16.21 | 36.06% | ― | 10.25% | 17.03% | |
67 Neutral | $1.94B | 19.85 | 7.49% | 2.06% | 4.14% | -0.27% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
56 Neutral | $1.65B | 15.81 | 6.41% | 0.93% | -0.28% | 68.37% | |
52 Neutral | $34.02B | 32.19 | 13.04% | 2.15% | 1.14% | -53.47% | |
51 Neutral | $6.63B | 42.27 | 8.17% | 3.49% | 3.46% | -80.55% | |
49 Neutral | $987.25M | -2.52 | -36.58% | ― | 6.04% | -2370.84% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
KR
Kroger Company
55.53
-14.36
-20.55%
IMKTA
Ingles Markets
88.58
23.12
35.31%
WMK
Weis Markets
78.31
4.77
6.48%
SFM
Sprouts Farmers
84.58
-77.52
-47.82%
GO
Grocery Outlet Holding
9.98
-2.95
-22.82%
ACI
Albertsons Companies
13.53
-7.39
-35.31%
Kroger Company Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Kroger Updates Board Leadership Role and Director Compensation
Positive
Jun 26, 2026
Effective July 1, 2026, Ronald L. Sargent will cease serving as an employee of The Kroger Co. but will continue as non-executive chairman of the board, becoming eligible for the company’s revised standard non-employee director compensation a...
Executive/Board Changes
Kroger Announces Retirement of Executive Vice President Massa
Neutral
May 27, 2026
On May 22, 2026, Kroger announced that Executive Vice President and Associate Experience Officer Timothy A. Massa plans to retire in the fall of 2026, marking a significant leadership change in the company’s human capital and workforce strat...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.