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Kroger Company (KR)
:KR

Kroger Company (KR) AI Stock Analysis

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KR

Kroger Company

(NYSE:KR)

Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$79.00
▲(11.72%Upside)
Kroger's overall score of 73 reflects a balanced view of moderate financial performance and positive technical indicators. The company is successfully growing in e-commerce and fresh segments, but high leverage and challenges in profitability in certain areas, such as e-commerce and fuel, are key risks. Valuation remains a concern with a relatively low dividend yield.
Positive Factors
E-commerce Growth
Faster e-commerce growth of 15% YoY contributed an incremental growth suggesting e-commerce growth likely accounted for the majority of the sequential market share improvements.
Market Share and Sales Growth
KR outgrew the industry for the first time in over 2 years, indicating a positive market share inflection.
Pharmacy and Customer Growth
Pharmacy growth was strong and accelerated, driven by existing customers fulfilling more scripts and new customer growth due to competitor closures.
Negative Factors
Competitive and Macro Risks
The macro environment and heightened industry competition remain risks.
E-commerce Profitability
E-commerce remains unprofitable despite having the best QoQ improvement in profits yet.
Market Share Challenges
Modest market share losses are estimated, indicating that further valuation expansion likely requires stronger grocery market share trends.

Kroger Company (KR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Kroger Company Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionThe Kroger Company (KR) is one of the largest retail companies in the United States, operating a range of supermarket chains and multi-department stores. Founded in 1883 and headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio, Kroger provides a variety of products and services including groceries, pharmaceuticals, and general merchandise. The company also operates fuel centers, convenience stores, and jewelry stores, serving millions of customers across the country.
How the Company Makes MoneyKroger makes money primarily through the sale of grocery products, which include fresh and prepared foods, as well as household essentials. The company's revenue model is built on a multi-channel retail strategy that includes brick-and-mortar stores, e-commerce, and private label brands. Key revenue streams include the sale of national and private label products, fuel, and pharmacy services. Additionally, Kroger has partnerships with a variety of suppliers and leverages data analytics through its loyalty programs to optimize inventory and marketing strategies. The company's earnings are also supported by its investments in technology and distribution networks to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience.

Kroger Company Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Store Count
Store Count
Indicates the total number of retail locations, highlighting the company's market reach and potential for customer engagement. A growing store count can signal expansion and increased market penetration.
Chart InsightsKroger's store count has been declining since 2019, but 2024 marks a reversal with a slight increase. This aligns with the company's strategic focus on digital sales and operational excellence, as highlighted in their earnings call. The completion of 30 major store projects in 2025 suggests a renewed emphasis on physical retail presence. Despite challenges like flat EPS and lower fuel profitability, Kroger's investments in digital growth and alternative profit businesses indicate a balanced approach to expansion and profitability.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Kroger Company Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jun 20, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 7.92%|
Next Earnings Date:Sep 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The Kroger Co.'s first-quarter earnings call presented a balanced view of both achievements and challenges. Significant growth was noted in e-commerce and fresh segments, alongside strategic investments in improving customer experience and labor relations. However, challenges such as store closures, declining fuel sales, and the need to address e-commerce profitability were also highlighted. The macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, influencing customer spending habits.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Solid First-Quarter Results
The Kroger Co. announced strong first-quarter results with identical sales, excluding fuel and adjustment items, increasing by 3.2%. Adjusted net earnings per diluted share increased by 4% to $1.49.
Growth in E-commerce
E-commerce sales grew by 15% in the first quarter, driven by strong demand and delivery. This represents a significant impact on results, with improvements in order accuracy and reduced pickup wait times.
Strong Performance in Fresh and Pharmacy Segments
Fresh identical sales outperformed center store sales, supporting overall sales growth. Pharmacy sales were also strong, contributing significantly to identical sales growth.
Strategic Investments in Customer Experience
Investments in projects that grow the core business, accelerate new store openings, and reduce costs are expected to reinvest savings into lower prices and additional store hours.
Our Brands Outperforming National Brands
Our Brands grew faster than national brands for the seventh consecutive quarter, with Simple Truth and Private Selection leading sales growth. New product introductions, like 80 new protein products, were highlighted.
Labor Relations Progress
Significant progress on labor agreements was noted, with new agreements covering more than 23,000 associates ratified.
Negative Updates
Store Closures
Plans to close approximately 60 underperforming stores over the next 18 months were announced, acknowledging not all stores are delivering sustainable results.
Fuel Sales Decline
Fuel results were behind expectations, with sales lower compared to last year due to lower average retail price per gallon and fewer gallons sold.
E-commerce Profitability Challenges
While e-commerce is growing, it is not yet profitable. The company acknowledged the need to become profitable in this segment.
Uncertain Macroeconomic Environment
Customers continue to spend cautiously in an uncertain economic environment, affecting overall consumer confidence and spending patterns.
Company Guidance
During The Kroger Co.'s first quarter 2025 earnings call, the company reported a 3.2% increase in identical sales excluding fuel and adjustment items, and a 4% rise in adjusted net earnings per diluted share to $1.49. Key growth areas included pharmacy, e-commerce, and fresh categories, with e-commerce sales experiencing a 15% increase. The company also announced plans to close approximately 60 underperforming stores over the next 18 months while completing 30 major store projects in 2025. The Kroger Co. is focusing on cost optimization and reviewing its capital allocation strategy to ensure investments yield high returns. They are also committed to growing market share and boosting e-commerce profitability. Despite some challenges, such as lower fuel profitability, the company raised its identical sales guidance to a range of 2.25% to 3.25% for the year. The call highlighted efforts to improve customer experience and associate engagement, with the average hourly wage for associates now over $19.50, increasing to more than $25 when benefits are included.

Kroger Company Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Kroger's financial performance is solid, with stable revenue and profitability. Improvements in profit margins and a strong ROE indicate operational efficiency. However, the increased leverage and declining free cash flow pose some financial risks.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Kroger displays robust revenue figures with a slight decline from $150.039B in 2024 to $147.123B in 2025, indicating a revenue growth rate of -1.94%. The gross profit margin improved to 22.7%, reflecting efficient cost management. The net profit margin is stable at 1.81%, aligning with industry norms. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins show an upward trend, suggesting operational efficiency improvements.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The debt-to-equity ratio increased to 3.03, indicating higher leverage, which could pose risk during economic downturns. The equity ratio stands at 15.74%, implying moderate financial stability. Return on equity is 32.17%, showcasing strong profitability. However, the decrease in stockholders' equity from $11.615B to $8.281B is a concern.
Cash Flow
68
Positive
Operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 2.17, indicating healthy cash generation relative to net income. Free cash flow decreased significantly by 38.4% from 2024 to 2025, highlighting potential cash management issues. Free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.67, showing adequate conversion of earnings to free cash flow.
BreakdownTTMMar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue101.84B147.12B150.04B148.26B137.89B132.50B
Gross Profit23.26B33.40B33.36B31.78B30.35B30.90B
EBITDA12.27B7.04B7.04B7.03B6.06B7.29B
Net Income4.30B2.67B2.16B2.24B1.66B2.58B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets53.25B52.62B50.51B49.54B49.09B48.64B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments340.00M5.27B3.10B1.01B2.90B2.78B
Total Debt25.21B25.08B19.25B20.41B20.44B20.59B
Total Liabilities44.34B44.34B38.90B39.52B39.66B39.09B
Stockholders Equity8.91B8.29B11.62B10.01B9.43B9.55B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.71B1.78B2.88B1.23B3.58B3.95B
Operating Cash Flow5.47B5.79B6.79B4.31B6.19B6.82B
Investing Cash Flow-3.25B-3.23B-3.75B-3.02B-2.61B-2.81B
Financing Cash Flow-473.00M-490.00M-2.17B-2.29B-3.44B-2.71B

Kroger Company Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price70.71
Price Trends
50DMA
69.14
Positive
100DMA
67.77
Positive
200DMA
63.18
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.71
Positive
RSI
54.48
Neutral
STOCH
38.58
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 70.71 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 69.62, above the 50-day MA of 69.14, and above the 200-day MA of 63.18, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.71 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.58 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KR.

Kroger Company Risk Analysis

Kroger Company disclosed 15 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Kroger Company reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Kroger Company Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
KRKR
73
Outperform
$46.45B19.2224.06%1.82%-2.11%25.03%
SFSFM
72
Outperform
$15.63B35.7335.74%15.51%53.77%
ACACI
71
Outperform
$12.59B13.5731.26%2.69%1.46%-26.54%
WMWMK
69
Neutral
$2.00B18.767.54%1.82%1.76%6.01%
65
Neutral
$26.88B15.20-4.27%3.19%1.02%1.89%
65
Neutral
$1.23B20.274.00%1.00%-7.79%-64.85%
GOGO
58
Neutral
$1.26B77.701.43%10.37%-73.84%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
KR
Kroger Company
70.71
19.32
37.59%
IMKTA
Ingles Markets
67.03
-5.88
-8.06%
WMK
Weis Markets
74.81
9.05
13.76%
SFM
Sprouts Farmers
158.72
76.09
92.09%
ACI
Albertsons Companies
22.28
3.30
17.39%
GO
Grocery Outlet Holding
12.88
-8.32
-39.25%

Kroger Company Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Kroger Company Holds Annual Shareholders Meeting
Neutral
Jun 27, 2025

On June 26, 2025, Kroger Company held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where ten directors were elected, executive compensation was approved, and PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP was ratified as the independent auditor for 2025. Several shareholder proposals were rejected, including reports on cigarette pollution, a third-party framework for U.S. farmers, and consumer health data privacy. During the meeting, technical difficulties affected the audio webcast, preventing the final question’s response from being heard. The company addressed concerns about tariffs, stating efforts to avoid passing costs to consumers by sourcing products from less affected areas.

The most recent analyst rating on (KR) stock is a Buy with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kroger Company stock, see the KR Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 11, 2025