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Sprouts Farmers (SFM)
NASDAQ:SFM

Sprouts Farmers (SFM) AI Stock Analysis

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SF

Sprouts Farmers

(NASDAQ:SFM)

Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$178.00
▲(10.41%Upside)
Sprouts Farmers Market shows robust financial performance and promising future growth prospects, highlighted by strong earnings call outcomes. However, technical analysis and high valuation raise concerns about potential short-term price weakness and overvaluation. The overall score reflects a balanced view of strong company fundamentals and market caution.
Positive Factors
Customer Base Growth
The company sees continued growth in its customer base supported by assortment enhancements, geographic expansion, and marketing efforts.
Sales and Margin Strength
Sprouts Farmers Market's sales and margin strength continues, leading to an analyst recommendation to raise the price objective to $200.
Negative Factors
Competitive Challenges
Key bear concerns include tough compares and high expectations given SFM's impressive track record of sales/EPS upside.
Consumer Sentiment Risk
Sales/margin risk if consumer sentiment worsens and price investments are needed to stimulate traffic, especially as price gaps for SFM have widened.

Sprouts Farmers (SFM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Sprouts Farmers Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSprouts Farmers Market, Inc. is a leading American supermarket chain that specializes in offering fresh, organic, and natural products. Founded in 2002 and headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona, Sprouts operates in the grocery store sector, focusing on providing affordable, wholesome, and innovative food options. The company emphasizes a farm-fresh layout with a wide range of products including fresh produce, bulk foods, vitamins and supplements, dairy, meat and seafood, bakery items, and natural body care products.
How the Company Makes MoneySprouts Farmers Market generates revenue primarily through the sale of grocery products in its retail stores. The company's key revenue streams include fresh produce, grocery items, meat and seafood, bakery goods, and vitamins and supplements. Sprouts differentiates itself by offering a wide selection of organic and natural products, often at competitive prices, which attracts health-conscious consumers. Additionally, the company leverages strategic partnerships with local farmers and suppliers to maintain a steady flow of high-quality products. Sprouts' revenue is also supported by its private-label products, which offer higher margins. The company's business model is characterized by its focus on providing a unique shopping experience centered around health and wellness, which helps in retaining and expanding its customer base.

Sprouts Farmers Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -5.73%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a strong financial performance with significant sales and earnings growth, driven by a successful strategy and execution. The launch of a new loyalty program and e-commerce expansion are positive developments. However, some challenges with inventory management and store closure costs were noted.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Sales Growth
Sales increased by 19%, supported by a comparable store sales increase of 11.7%. Total sales for the quarter were $2.2 billion, up $353 million compared to the same period last year.
Earnings Per Share Surge
Diluted earnings per share reached $1.81, reflecting a 62% increase compared to the same period last year.
E-commerce Expansion
E-commerce sales grew approximately 28%, representing 15% of total sales for the quarter.
Gross Margin Improvement
Gross margin was 39.6%, an increase of 129 basis points compared to the same period last year.
Loyalty Program Launch
Sprouts launched a new loyalty program, which is expected to enhance customer engagement and sales.
Cash Flow and Share Repurchase
Generated $299 million in operating cash flow and returned $219 million to shareholders through share repurchases.
Negative Updates
Inventory Management Challenges
Supply constraints and strong sales put pressure on in-stock levels, resulting in additional shrink leverage.
Store Closure Costs
Store closure and other costs totaled approximately $2 million for the quarter, related to exiting leases and disaster recovery charges from wildfires.
Company Guidance
During the Sprouts Farmers' Market first quarter 2025 earnings call, the company reported strong financial performance and provided guidance for the year. Sales increased by 19%, driven by an 11.7% rise in comparable store sales and robust new store performance. Diluted earnings per share grew by 62% year-over-year to $1.81. The company highlighted the effectiveness of its differentiated strategy, which resonated with health-focused consumers, expanding its target market to $290 billion of the $1.6 trillion spent on food at home. Sprouts expects total sales growth of 12% to 14% for 2025, with comp sales projected between 5.5% and 7.5%. The company plans to open at least 35 new stores and anticipates earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) to be between $640 million and $660 million. Capital expenditures are expected to range from $230 million to $250 million. Sprouts also discussed the launch of its new loyalty program, aimed at enhancing customer engagement, and its transition to self-distributing fresh meat and seafood to improve product freshness and supply chain efficiency.

Sprouts Farmers Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Sprouts Farmers demonstrates solid financial performance with strong revenue growth, profitability, and efficient cash flow management. The income statement and cash flow metrics indicate robust overall health. However, moderate leverage suggests an opportunity to improve the equity base for greater stability.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Sprouts Farmers shows strong revenue growth with a TTM revenue of $8.07 billion, up from $7.72 billion in the previous year, marking a revenue growth rate of 4.55%. The gross profit margin is robust at 38.06%, indicating effective cost management. The net profit margin has improved to 5.53% TTM, reflecting enhanced profitability. EBIT margin stands at 7.26% and EBITDA margin at 8.95% TTM, both showcasing efficient operations. Overall, the income statement reflects a healthy growth trajectory with solid profitability metrics.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company maintains a balanced financial structure with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.33, indicating moderate leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) is strong at 34.67% TTM, demonstrating effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is 34.45%, suggesting a stable financial foundation. While the leverage is moderate, there is an opportunity to improve the equity base for greater stability.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Sprouts Farmers' cash flow analysis reveals a positive trend with a free cash flow growth rate of 17.15% TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable at 1.62, indicating good cash generation relative to profit. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.09, showing effective conversion of profits into free cash flow. The company maintains strong cash flow management, supporting its operational and financial commitments.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income StatementTotal Revenue
8.07B7.72B6.84B6.40B6.10B6.47B
Gross Profit
3.11B2.94B2.52B2.35B2.21B2.38B
EBIT
582.56M504.50M350.23M358.36M334.08M391.67M
EBITDA
868.27M785.79M482.12M604.76M568.13M617.45M
Net Income Common Stockholders
446.53M380.60M258.86M261.16M244.16M287.45M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
285.66M265.16M201.79M293.23M245.29M169.70M
Total Assets
3.74B3.64B3.33B3.07B2.92B2.81B
Total Debt
1.72B1.68B1.66B1.54B1.51B1.47B
Net Debt
1.43B1.41B1.46B1.25B1.26B1.30B
Total Liabilities
2.45B2.32B2.18B2.02B1.96B1.93B
Stockholders Equity
1.29B1.32B1.15B1.05B959.88M881.29M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
486.00M414.84M239.76M247.32M262.42M372.07M
Operating Cash Flow
724.61M645.21M465.07M371.33M364.80M494.04M
Investing Cash Flow
-238.61M-230.38M-238.34M-124.01M-102.38M-121.97M
Financing Cash Flow
-512.61M-351.50M-318.05M-199.13M-186.86M-287.41M

Sprouts Farmers Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price161.21
Price Trends
50DMA
164.26
Negative
100DMA
158.11
Positive
200DMA
143.08
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.13
Positive
RSI
46.73
Neutral
STOCH
37.40
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SFM, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 161.21 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 165.65, below the 50-day MA of 164.26, and above the 200-day MA of 143.08, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.40 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SFM.

Sprouts Farmers Risk Analysis

Sprouts Farmers disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Sprouts Farmers reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Sprouts Farmers Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
SFSFM
70
Outperform
$15.71B36.2935.74%15.51%53.77%
KRKR
69
Neutral
$43.95B17.9726.59%1.94%-1.94%23.94%
67
Neutral
$931.33M22.8123.38%1.18%9.36%43.17%
ACACI
67
Neutral
$12.39B13.1131.26%2.79%1.46%-26.54%
65
Neutral
$8.77B15.114.67%3.71%3.60%-2.96%
61
Neutral
$1.14B18.794.00%1.08%-7.79%-64.85%
GOGO
60
Neutral
$1.27B76.661.43%10.37%-73.84%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SFM
Sprouts Farmers
161.86
84.87
110.24%
IMKTA
Ingles Markets
61.15
-7.38
-10.77%
KR
Kroger Company
65.52
16.30
33.12%
NGVC
Natural Grocers
41.12
20.85
102.86%
ACI
Albertsons Companies
21.09
1.85
9.62%
GO
Grocery Outlet Holding
13.05
-7.87
-37.62%

Sprouts Farmers Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Sprouts Farmers Market Holds Annual Stockholder Meeting
Neutral
May 23, 2025

On May 21, 2025, Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. held its annual meeting of stockholders, where several key proposals were voted on, including the declassification of the company’s board of directors. This amendment will transition the board to annual elections by 2028, allowing directors to be removed with or without cause, aligning with Delaware law. The declassification aims to enhance corporate governance and accountability. Additionally, the stockholders elected two Class III directors, approved executive compensation for 2024, and ratified PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent accounting firm for 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (SFM) stock is a Hold with a $102.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sprouts Farmers stock, see the SFM Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Sprouts Farmers Reports Strong Q1 2025 Financial Results
Positive
Apr 30, 2025

Sprouts Farmers Market reported strong financial results for the first quarter of 2025, with net sales reaching $2.2 billion, a 19% increase from the previous year. The company also saw a comparable store sales growth of 11.7% and a significant rise in diluted earnings per share to $1.81. Sprouts opened three new stores, bringing its total to 443 locations, and ended the quarter with $286 million in cash and no debt on its revolving credit facility. The company repurchased 1.6 million shares of common stock and generated $299 million in cash from operations. Looking ahead, Sprouts anticipates continued growth with plans to open at least 35 new stores and achieve net sales growth of 12% to 14% for the full year 2025.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.