Natural Grocers (NGVC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $890.85M
• Dividend Yield: 1.19%
• Average Volume (3M): 248.28K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.74
• Revenue Growth: 8.51%
• EPS Growth: 40.83%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,332
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Grocery Stores
• EPS (TTM): 0.54
• Shares Outstanding: 22,954,110
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 327,604
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 248,285
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.39
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.94
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.02
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 16.62
• 1Y Price Target: $43.00
• Price Target Upside: 10.80% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $43.00 ▲(10.80% Upside)

Natural Grocers has a strong earnings call performance, which is the most significant factor, highlighting record sales and improved earnings. Financial performance is solid, though there are concerns about cash flow growth. Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, and valuation metrics indicate moderate pricing.

Natural Grocers Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, retails natural and organic groceries, and dietary supplements in the United States. The company's stores offer natural and organic grocery products, such as organic produce; bulk food products; private label products comprising pasta, pasta sauce, ketchup, canned beans and vegetables, frozen vegetables, frozen fruits, frozen meals, frozen pizza, bread, baking mixes, plant based butter, olive and coconut oil, coconut milk, honey, maple syrup, preserves, chocolate, coffee, bacon, beef jerky, canned seafood, popcorn, tortilla chips, taco shells, eggs, cheese, apple sauce, apple cider vinegar, spring water, paper products, cleaning products, and other products; dry, frozen, and canned groceries; meat and seafood products; dairy products, dairy substitutes, and eggs; prepared foods; bread and baked products; beverages; and beer, wine, and hard cider products. Its stores also provide private label dietary supplements; body care products consisting of cosmetics, skin care, hair care, fragrance, and personal care products containing natural and organic ingredients; pet care and food products; books and handouts; and household and general merchandise, including cleaning supplies, paper products, and dish and laundry soaps, as well as other common household products, such as diapers. The company operates its retail stores under the Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage trademark. As of February 1, 2022, it operated 162 stores in 20 states. The company also offers science-based nutrition education programs to help customers make informed health and nutrition choices. Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Lakewood, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Natural Grocers generates revenue primarily through the sale of its natural and organic products in its retail stores. The company's core revenue streams include grocery sales, dietary supplements, and personal care items. Additionally, Natural Grocers offers educational seminars and workshops, which enhance customer engagement and loyalty. The company benefits from a loyal customer base attracted to its commitment to quality and sustainability. Partnerships with suppliers of organic and natural products also contribute to its earnings, allowing for a diverse product range that meets customer demand. Seasonal promotions and loyalty programs further drive sales, providing additional income during peak shopping periods.

Natural Grocers Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Natural Grocers shows consistent revenue growth and improved profitability with a stable gross profit margin. High leverage poses a risk, but strong cash flow generation and return on equity mitigate concerns.

Income Statement

Natural Grocers has demonstrated consistent revenue growth with a TTM revenue increase of 4.5% from the previous year. The gross profit margin remains stable at 29.2%, signaling efficient cost management. The net profit margin has improved to 3.2%, reflecting enhanced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are at 4.3% and 5.6% respectively, showing operational efficiency improvements.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.74, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risks. However, the return on equity stands at a healthy 21.4%, showing effective use of shareholder funds to generate profits. The equity ratio of 29.0% suggests a relatively lower reliance on equity financing.

Cash Flow

Natural Grocers reports robust free cash flow growth of 64%, highlighting strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.78 reflects efficient conversion of net income into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio at 1.39 indicates solid cash flow sustainability relative to earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.32B	1.24B	1.14B	1.09B	1.06B	1.04B
Gross Profit	409.36M	364.81M	299.11M	304.88M	292.19M	283.14M
EBITDA	74.39M	77.91M	62.08M	58.76M	58.76M	59.74M
Net Income	43.65M	33.94M	23.24M	21.36M	20.58M	20.01M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	659.00M	655.48M	669.18M	663.11M	655.08M	681.79M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	13.18M	8.87M	18.34M	12.04M	23.68M	28.53M
Total Debt	334.53M	346.51M	370.18M	393.37M	401.52M	400.14M
Total Liabilities	456.50M	481.22M	498.34M	507.30M	512.35M	508.73M
Stockholders Equity	202.50M	174.25M	170.84M	155.81M	142.73M	173.07M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	57.33M	35.08M	26.51M	8.25M	25.59M	36.92M
Operating Cash Flow	64.16M	73.76M	64.61M	39.69M	53.88M	66.50M
Investing Cash Flow	-29.73M	-38.60M	-37.95M	-31.14M	-27.75M	-29.56M
Financing Cash Flow	-35.16M	-44.63M	-20.35M	-20.19M	-30.98M	-14.63M

Natural Grocers Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 38.81
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NGVC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 38.81 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.66, below the 50-day MA of 39.86, and below the 200-day MA of 41.74, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.29 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.59 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NGVC.

Natural Grocers Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VLGEA	74 Outperform	$469.02M	9.09	11.87%	2.84%	3.94%	12.50%
NGVC	71 Outperform	$890.85M	20.66	23.58%	1.19%	8.51%	40.83%
SFM	68 Neutral	$14.23B	30.01	36.94%	―	16.83%	52.71%
WMK	67 Neutral	$1.74B	17.47	7.86%	1.94%	2.49%	15.99%
GO	63 Neutral	$1.80B	231.15	0.68%	―	8.47%	-85.17%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$20.74B	14.39	-8.06%	3.17%	2.73%	-9.96%
IMKTA	52 Neutral	$1.19B	21.62	3.58%	1.03%	-7.96%	-64.67%

Natural Grocers Corporate Events

Natural Grocers Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results

Natural Grocers reported strong financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2025, with net sales increasing by 6.3% to $328.7 million and net income rising by 26% to $11.6 million. Despite a temporary disruption due to a cybersecurity incident with its primary distributor, the company managed to maintain robust growth in comparable store sales and improved its operating margin. The company raised its fiscal 2025 outlook, reflecting confidence in continued growth and resilience in its operations.