Natural Grocers (NGVC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $623.66M
• Dividend Yield: 1.88%
• Average Volume (3M): 277.25K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.68
• Revenue Growth: 7.19%
• EPS Growth: 35.90%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,332
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Grocery Stores
• EPS (TTM): 0.55
• Shares Outstanding: 22,954,110
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 318,886
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 277,248
• PEG Ratio: 0.43
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.88
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.54
• P/FCF Ratio: 19.28
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.00
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.95
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.05
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.84
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.17
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.43B

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $33.00 ▲(18.83% Upside)

The overall stock score of 58 reflects a mixed outlook. The company's financial performance is strong, with consistent revenue growth and improved profitability. However, technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, and the valuation is not particularly compelling. Investors should be cautious due to the current downward trend in stock price and oversold conditions.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth indicates a strong market position and effective business model, supporting long-term financial stability and expansion.

Profitability Margins

Improved profit margins reflect efficient cost management, enhancing the company's ability to reinvest in growth and maintain competitive pricing.

Leverage Management

Better leverage management reduces financial risk and increases the company's ability to invest in strategic opportunities, supporting long-term growth.

Negative Factors

Free Cash Flow Decline

Declining free cash flow can constrain the company's ability to fund operations and growth initiatives, potentially impacting future financial flexibility.

Equity Ratio Concerns

A low equity ratio indicates higher financial risk, which could affect the company's ability to withstand economic downturns or invest in growth.

Operational Efficiency

Limited improvement in operational efficiency may hinder profitability growth, requiring strategic focus on cost management and process optimization.

Natural Grocers Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Natural Grocers (NGVC) is a specialty retailer dedicated to providing high-quality natural and organic products, including groceries, dietary supplements, and personal care items. Founded in 1955, the company operates a chain of stores across the United States, focusing on sustainable and health-oriented products that cater to health-conscious consumers. Natural Grocers emphasizes education on nutrition and wellness, offering a range of organic foods, including fresh produce, meat, dairy, and pantry staples, as well as a diverse selection of supplements and body care products.

How the Company Makes Money

Natural Grocers generates revenue primarily through the sale of its natural and organic products in its retail stores. The company's core revenue streams include grocery sales, dietary supplements, and personal care items. Additionally, Natural Grocers offers educational seminars and workshops, which enhance customer engagement and loyalty. The company benefits from a loyal customer base attracted to its commitment to quality and sustainability. Partnerships with suppliers of organic and natural products also contribute to its earnings, allowing for a diverse product range that meets customer demand. Seasonal promotions and loyalty programs further drive sales, providing additional income during peak shopping periods.

Natural Grocers Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Natural Grocers shows solid financial performance with consistent revenue growth and improved profitability margins. The balance sheet reflects better leverage management, although the equity ratio suggests caution. Cash flow metrics indicate strong cash generation, but the decline in free cash flow growth warrants attention. Overall, the company is on a positive trajectory with areas for improvement in operational efficiency and financial stability.

Income Statement

Natural Grocers has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 1.51%. The gross profit margin has improved to 31.07% in the TTM period, indicating efficient cost management. The net profit margin has also increased to 3.31%, reflecting enhanced profitability. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins show moderate improvement, suggesting room for operational efficiency gains.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 1.65 in the TTM period, indicating better leverage management compared to previous years. Return on equity has increased to 23.23%, showcasing strong profitability relative to equity. However, the equity ratio remains low, suggesting potential financial risk due to high leverage.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains strong with a TTM operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.42. Free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 0.89, indicating good cash generation relative to profits. However, the free cash flow growth rate is negative, highlighting a decline in free cash flow generation.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.32B	1.24B	1.14B	1.09B	1.06B	1.04B
Gross Profit	409.36M	364.81M	299.11M	304.88M	292.19M	283.14M
EBITDA	84.02M	77.91M	62.08M	58.76M	58.76M	59.74M
Net Income	43.65M	33.94M	23.24M	21.36M	20.58M	20.01M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	659.00M	655.48M	669.18M	663.11M	655.08M	681.79M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	13.18M	8.87M	18.34M	12.04M	23.68M	28.53M
Total Debt	334.53M	346.51M	370.18M	393.37M	401.52M	400.14M
Total Liabilities	456.50M	481.22M	498.34M	507.30M	512.35M	508.73M
Stockholders Equity	202.50M	174.25M	170.84M	155.81M	142.73M	173.07M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	50.25M	35.08M	26.51M	8.25M	25.59M	36.92M
Operating Cash Flow	64.16M	73.76M	64.61M	39.69M	53.88M	66.50M
Investing Cash Flow	-29.73M	-38.60M	-37.95M	-31.14M	-27.75M	-29.56M
Financing Cash Flow	-35.16M	-44.63M	-20.35M	-20.19M	-30.98M	-14.63M

Natural Grocers Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 27.77
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NGVC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 27.77 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.97, below the 50-day MA of 34.92, and below the 200-day MA of 39.99, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.25 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 24.38 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.93 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NGVC.

Natural Grocers Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
IMKTA	72 Outperform	$1.42B	17.31	5.29%	0.87%	-5.42%	-20.80%
SFM	69 Neutral	$8.36B	16.63	36.96%	―	16.60%	49.76%
VLGEA	67 Neutral	$464.85M	9.11	―	2.89%	3.88%	7.65%
WMK	67 Neutral	$1.63B	17.33	7.22%	2.02%	3.11%	6.54%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
NGVC	58 Neutral	$623.66M	13.59	24.02%	1.88%	7.19%	35.90%
GO	45 Neutral	$1.10B	―	-0.37%	―	7.22%	-108.99%

Natural Grocers Corporate Events

Natural Grocers Approves Executive Cash Bonuses

On October 23, 2025, Natural Grocers‘ Board of Directors approved discretionary cash bonuses of $365,000 each for three executives: Heather Isely, Elizabeth Isely, and Richard Hallé. These awards highlight the company’s recognition of its executive team, potentially impacting its financial management and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (NGVC) stock is a Hold with a $43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Natural Grocers stock, see the NGVC Stock Forecast page.

Natural Grocers Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. is a specialty retailer that focuses on providing natural and organic groceries, body care products, and dietary supplements, with a commitment to high-quality standards and affordable pricing.

Natural Grocers Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results

Natural Grocers reported strong financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2025, with net sales increasing by 6.3% to $328.7 million and net income rising by 26% to $11.6 million. Despite a temporary disruption due to a cybersecurity incident with its primary distributor, the company managed to maintain robust growth in comparable store sales and improved its operating margin. The company raised its fiscal 2025 outlook, reflecting confidence in continued growth and resilience in its operations.