Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage (NGVC)
NYSE:NGVC
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Natural Grocers
(NYSE:NGVC)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$33.00
▲(30.28% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is primarily driven by improving financial performance and a supportive valuation. This is offset by weak technical positioning and a cautious near-term outlook from the earnings call due to softer consumer demand, transaction pressure, and incremental expense/investment headwinds.
Positive Factors
Accelerating Revenue Growth
Sustained acceleration in revenue (7.2% FY2025; 12% TTM) indicates expanding customer adoption and scale across Natural Grocers' product mix. A durable top-line upswing supports investment in stores, private brands and loyalty programs and underpins longer-term operating leverage.
Negative Factors
Meaningful Leverage Remains
Although leverage has improved, debt still meaningfully exceeds equity which can limit strategic flexibility. In a rising-rate environment or if sales falter, interest and principal service could constrain capital allocation for new stores, dividends or buybacks and elevate refinancing risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Accelerating Revenue Growth
Sustained acceleration in revenue (7.2% FY2025; 12% TTM) indicates expanding customer adoption and scale across Natural Grocers' product mix. A durable top-line upswing supports investment in stores, private brands and loyalty programs and underpins longer-term operating leverage.
Read all positive factors
Natural Grocers Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Natural Grocers (NGVC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$704.13M
Dividend Yield1.99%
Average Volume (3M)125.02K
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.7
Beta (1Y)0.57
Revenue Growth3.09%
EPS Growth16.13%
CountryUS
Employees3,332
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryGrocery Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.09
Shares Outstanding23,040,787
10 Day Avg. Volume120,089
30 Day Avg. Volume125,022
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.56
Price to Book (P/B)4.32
Price to Sales (P/S)0.69
P/FCF Ratio38.06
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.43
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.76
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.59
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.53
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$40.00Price Target Upside57.92% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)2.12
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.38B
Natural Grocers Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC) operates as a retailer specializing in natural and organic food items and dietary supplements across the United States. Its stores provide an extensive array of natural and organic groceries, includi...
How the Company Makes Money
Natural Grocers primarily makes money by selling products through its network of Natural Grocers retail stores; its revenue is generated mainly from point-of-sale transactions across multiple merchandising categories. Its key revenue streams inclu...
Natural Grocers Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented modest but tangible progress: revenue, EPS, adjusted EBITDA and two‑year comps improved; the company completed a major ERP upgrade, maintained strong liquidity, and kept a constructive store growth plan. However, management flagged a softer consumer backdrop, lower transaction counts and basket depth, a prior distributor cyber disruption, and near-term margin and expense pressures (including higher admin/technology costs and new-store preopening investments). Guidance was refined conservatively to reflect these headwinds while still showing profitability and controlled capital deployment.Positive Updates
Revenue and Comparable Sales Growth
Net sales of $337.4M, up 0.5% year-over-year; daily average comparable store sales increased 0.5%, and 2-year comparable sales growth was +9.4%.
Negative Updates
Soft Consumer Environment and Value-Seeking Behavior
Management cited continued economic uncertainty and value-seeking consumer behavior; less loyal customers pulled back, weighing on comps and sales momentum.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Comparable Sales Growth
Net sales of $337.4M, up 0.5% year-over-year; daily average comparable store sales increased 0.5%, and 2-year comparable sales growth was +9.4%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Natural Grocers refined its fiscal 2026 outlook, now targeting 6–8 new store openings (plus 2–3 relocations/remodels) and targeting a 4%–5% annual new‑unit growth rate over time; daily average comparable store sales growth of 1.5%–2.5% (down from a prior 1.5%–4%), with second‑half comps expected to be 2%–4% (Q3 at the lower end, modestly higher in Q4); diluted EPS of $2.07–$2.15 (vs. prior $2.00–$2.15) — which incorporates a $2.0 million insurance recovery (~$0.065 per share) and assumes an incremental ~$0.09 EPS drag from new‑store preopening and opening expenses — capital expenditures of $45M–$50M (down from $50M–$55M) including maintenance CapEx of ~75 basis points of net sales; management expects year‑over‑year gross margin relatively flat (dependent on promotional activity), store expenses as a percent of sales flat to slightly lower, administrative expenses as a percent of sales relatively flat in the second half (excluding the insurance recovery), and modest inflation in line with current trends.Natural Grocers Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.34B | 1.33B | 1.24B | 1.14B | 1.09B | 1.06B |
| Gross Profit | 390.68M | 397.88M | 364.81M | 326.93M | 304.88M | 292.19M |
| EBITDA | 95.94M | 93.80M | 77.91M | 62.08M | 58.76M | 58.76M |
| Net Income | 48.17M | 46.44M | 33.94M | 23.24M | 21.36M | 20.58M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 684.70M | 670.50M | 655.48M | 669.18M | 663.11M | 655.08M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 20.72M | 17.12M | 8.87M | 18.34M | 12.04M | 23.68M |
| Total Debt | 323.07M | 332.02M | 346.51M | 370.18M | 393.37M | 401.52M |
| Total Liabilities | 453.81M | 458.11M | 481.22M | 498.34M | 507.30M | 512.35M |
| Stockholders Equity | 230.90M | 212.40M | 174.25M | 170.84M | 155.81M | 142.73M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 51.32M | 24.10M | 35.08M | 26.51M | 8.25M | 25.59M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 96.83M | 55.30M | 73.76M | 64.61M | 39.69M | 53.88M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -45.43M | -30.97M | -38.60M | -37.95M | -31.14M | -27.75M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -51.88M | -16.09M | -44.63M | -20.35M | -20.19M | -30.98M |
Natural Grocers Technical Analysis
Positive
25.33
Price Trends
28.44
Positive
27.11
Positive
29.40
Positive
Market Momentum
0.77
Negative
59.21
Neutral
62.87
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NGVC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 25.33 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.83, below the 50-day MA of 28.44, and below the 200-day MA of 29.40, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.77 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.87 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NGVC.
Natural Grocers Risk Analysis
Natural Grocers disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Natural Grocers reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Natural Grocers Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $7.86B | 14.89 | 36.06% | ― | 10.25% | 17.03% | |
68 Neutral | $547.75M | 9.79 | 11.37% | 2.63% | 4.20% | -3.38% | |
67 Neutral | $1.96B | 18.72 | 7.49% | 2.06% | 4.14% | -0.27% | |
66 Neutral | $704.13M | 14.73 | 22.26% | 1.99% | 3.09% | 16.13% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
56 Neutral | $1.65B | 15.86 | 6.41% | 0.93% | -0.28% | 68.37% | |
49 Neutral | $977.36M | -2.44 | -36.58% | ― | 6.04% | -2370.84% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
NGVC
Natural Grocers
30.72
-9.02
-22.70%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.