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Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage (NGVC)
NYSE:NGVC
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Natural Grocers
(NYSE:NGVC)
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Rating:70Neutral
Price Target:
$27.00
▼(-2.77% Downside)
Natural Grocers' overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and a favorable valuation, supported by positive earnings call insights. However, technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, which slightly offsets the positive fundamentals. The company's strategic initiatives and growth plans contribute to a cautiously optimistic outlook.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth over two decades indicates strong market position and customer loyalty, supporting long-term business stability.
Dividend Increase
A significant dividend increase reflects strong cash flow and management's confidence in future earnings, enhancing shareholder value.
Store Expansion Plans
Strategic store expansion supports market penetration and revenue growth, indicating a robust growth strategy and execution capability.
Negative Factors
Economic Uncertainty
Economic uncertainty can dampen consumer spending, potentially impacting sales growth and profitability in the medium term.
Cybersecurity Incident
Cybersecurity incidents can disrupt operations and erode customer trust, posing risks to sales and brand reputation.
Decrease in Gross Margin
A decrease in gross margin indicates cost pressures, which could affect profitability if not managed effectively over time.
Natural Grocers (NGVC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$583.89M
Dividend Yield1.99%
Average Volume (3M)314.54K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.8
Beta (1Y)0.70
Revenue Growth7.19%
EPS Growth35.90%
CountryUS
Employees3,332
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryGrocery Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.55
Shares Outstanding23,033,092
10 Day Avg. Volume391,361
30 Day Avg. Volume314,543
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.56
Price to Book (P/B)4.32
Price to Sales (P/S)0.69
P/FCF Ratio16.59
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.11
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.93
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.10
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.15
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)2.17
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.43B
Natural Grocers Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNatural Grocers (NGVC) is a specialty retailer focused on providing high-quality natural and organic groceries, dietary supplements, and personal care products. Founded in 1955, the company operates a chain of stores primarily in the United States, emphasizing products that are free from artificial ingredients and additives. With a commitment to health and wellness, Natural Grocers offers a wide range of organic produce, bulk foods, and eco-friendly household items, catering to health-conscious consumers seeking sustainable and nutritious options.
How the Company Makes MoneyNatural Grocers generates revenue primarily through the sale of natural and organic products in its retail stores. The company benefits from a diverse revenue model that includes the sale of groceries, health and wellness products, dietary supplements, and personal care items. Key revenue streams include in-store sales, which constitute the bulk of its earnings, as well as online sales through its website. Additionally, Natural Grocers may engage in partnerships with local farmers and suppliers to source fresh produce and unique products, enhancing its product offerings and potentially increasing customer loyalty. Seasonal promotions and loyalty programs also contribute to customer retention and sales growth, further boosting the company's revenue. Overall, Natural Grocers capitalizes on the growing demand for health-oriented and sustainable products, positioning itself as a leader in the natural grocery sector.
Natural Grocers Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 20, 2025
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance with record earnings per share and consistent sales growth, supported by strategic store expansions and increased dividends. However, challenges such as economic uncertainty and a cybersecurity incident impacting sales, along with a slight decrease in gross margin, were noted. Despite these challenges, the company's strategic initiatives and long-term growth plans contribute to a cautiously optimistic outlook.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Earnings Per Share
Fiscal year 2025 diluted earnings per share reached a record $2, a 36.1% increase from $1.47 in fiscal 2024.
Consistent Sales Growth
Fiscal 2025 marked the twenty-second consecutive year of positive comparable store sales growth, with a 7.3% increase.
Increased Dividend
The quarterly cash dividend was increased by 25% to $0.15 per common share.
Growth in Branded Products
Natural Grocers branded products accounted for 8.8% of total sales in Q4, up from 8.4% a year ago.
Store Expansion Plans
The company plans to open six to eight new stores in fiscal 2026, with a long-term commitment to 4% to 5% annual new store unit growth.
Negative Updates
Sales Impact from Cybersecurity Incident
UNFI's June 2025 cybersecurity incident affected the ability to fulfill orders, impacting sales in June and July.
Economic Uncertainty
Persisting economic uncertainty led to more cautious retail spending, affecting consumer behavior.
Decrease in Gross Margin
Gross margin decreased 10 basis points to 29.5% in the fourth quarter due to lower product margin.
Challenges in Consumer Spending
Lower and middle-income consumers pulled back on spending, impacting sales growth.
Company Guidance
During the Natural Grocers Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company reported that sales were in line with guidance, with diluted earnings per share surpassing expectations, reaching a record $2 per share for the fiscal year. The daily average comparable store sales increased by 4.2% for the quarter and 11.3% over two years. Despite a slight moderation in sales comps due to factors such as UNFI's cybersecurity incident and economic uncertainty, the company achieved a 90 basis point improvement in operating margin. The nPower Rewards program maintained an 82% net sales penetration, while Natural Grocers branded products grew to account for 8.8% of total sales. For fiscal 2026, the company plans to open six to eight new stores, with expected comparable store sales growth between 1.5% and 4%. Capital expenditures are projected to range from $50 million to $55 million, with free cash flow remaining positive. The company remains committed to enhancing stockholder value, supported by a 25% increase in the quarterly cash dividend to $0.15 per share, and is confident in its ability to sustain long-term growth through strategic initiatives and a focus on customer value.Natural Grocers Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Natural Grocers shows strong financial health with consistent revenue growth and improving profitability margins. The balance sheet reflects prudent leverage management, while cash flow metrics indicate robust cash generation. The company is well-positioned within the grocery industry, balancing growth and stability effectively.Income Statement
Natural Grocers has demonstrated consistent revenue growth over the years, with a notable increase of 1.02% in the latest year. The company maintains a healthy gross profit margin of approximately 29.9%, indicating efficient cost management. The net profit margin has improved to 3.49%, reflecting enhanced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also shown positive trends, suggesting strong operational performance.78
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 1.56, down from previous years, indicating better leverage management. Return on equity is strong at 21.87%, showcasing effective use of shareholder funds. However, the equity ratio remains moderate, suggesting a balanced approach between debt and equity financing.65
Positive
Cash Flow
Natural Grocers has achieved a significant free cash flow growth rate of 10.06%, highlighting improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.35, indicating sufficient cash flow to cover net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.0 suggests that the company is generating ample free cash flow relative to its net income.72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.33B | 1.33B | 1.24B | 1.14B | 1.09B | 1.06B |
| Gross Profit | 397.88M | 397.88M | 364.81M | 299.11M | 304.88M | 292.19M |
| EBITDA | 93.80M | 93.80M | 77.91M | 62.08M | 58.76M | 58.76M |
| Net Income | 46.44M | 46.44M | 33.94M | 23.24M | 21.36M | 20.58M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 670.50M | 670.50M | 655.48M | 669.18M | 663.11M | 655.08M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 17.12M | 17.12M | 8.87M | 18.34M | 12.04M | 23.68M |
| Total Debt | 332.02M | 332.02M | 346.51M | 370.18M | 393.37M | 401.52M |
| Total Liabilities | 458.11M | 458.11M | 481.22M | 498.34M | 507.30M | 512.35M |
| Stockholders Equity | 212.40M | 212.40M | 174.25M | 170.84M | 155.81M | 142.73M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 74.58M | 58.53M | 35.08M | 26.51M | 8.25M | 25.59M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 89.74M | 55.30M | 73.76M | 64.61M | 39.69M | 53.88M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -30.97M | -30.97M | -38.60M | -37.95M | -31.14M | -27.75M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -50.52M | -16.09M | -44.63M | -20.35M | -20.19M | -30.98M |
Natural Grocers Technical Analysis
Negative
27.77
Price Trends
31.24
Negative
34.73
Negative
38.85
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.57
Negative
35.42
Neutral
50.41
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NGVC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 27.77 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.01, below the 50-day MA of 31.24, and below the 200-day MA of 38.85, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.57 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 35.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.41 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NGVC.
Natural Grocers Risk Analysis
Natural Grocers disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Natural Grocers reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Natural Grocers Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $1.33B | 16.05 | 5.29% | 0.93% | -5.42% | -20.80% | |
71 Outperform | $487.44M | 9.38 | 11.22% | 2.63% | 3.88% | 7.71% | |
70 Neutral | $583.89M | 12.83 | 24.02% | 1.99% | 7.19% | 35.90% | |
69 Neutral | $7.81B | 15.13 | 36.96% | ― | 16.60% | 49.76% | |
67 Neutral | $1.64B | 17.38 | 7.22% | 2.06% | 3.11% | 6.54% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
52 Neutral | $986.28M | -214.29 | -0.37% | ― | 7.22% | -108.99% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
NGVC
Natural Grocers
25.62
-14.13
-35.55%
IMKTA
Ingles Markets
70.65
5.04
7.68%
VLGEA
Village Super Market
35.97
4.79
15.36%
WMK
Weis Markets
65.94
-1.97
-2.90%
SFM
Sprouts Farmers
78.12
-52.41
-40.15%
GO
Grocery Outlet Holding
10.20
-5.78
-36.17%
Natural Grocers Corporate Events
DividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Natural Grocers Boosts Dividend Amid Strong Performance
Positive
Nov 20, 2025
On November 20, 2025, Natural Grocers announced a 25% increase in its quarterly cash dividend to $0.15 per share, reflecting strong fiscal 2025 performance. The company reported record sales and earnings for fiscal 2025, with net sales rising by 7.2% to $1.33 billion and net income increasing by 36.9% to $46.4 million. The company plans to continue its growth strategy by opening six to eight new stores in fiscal 2026, emphasizing its robust pipeline and execution capabilities.
Executive/Board Changes
Natural Grocers Approves Executive Cash Bonuses
Neutral
Oct 29, 2025
On October 23, 2025, Natural Grocers‘ Board of Directors approved discretionary cash bonuses of $365,000 each for three executives: Heather Isely, Elizabeth Isely, and Richard Hallé. These awards highlight the company’s recognition of its executive team, potentially impacting its financial management and stakeholder relations.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.