Natural Grocers (NGVC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $603.70M
• Dividend Yield: 1.99%
• Average Volume (3M): 208.18K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.67
• Revenue Growth: 7.19%
• EPS Growth: 35.90%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,332
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Grocery Stores
• EPS (TTM): 0.53
• Shares Outstanding: 23,033,092
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 165,708
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 208,182
• PEG Ratio: 0.56
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.32
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.69
• P/FCF Ratio: 38.06
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.53
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.69
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.32
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.69
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.08
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.40B

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $30.00 ▲(18.44% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/06/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/06/26

The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (better margins and strong recent cash generation) and a constructive earnings outlook with reaffirmed guidance. Valuation is supportive with a moderate P/E and a dividend. The main constraint is technicals that remain below longer-term moving averages, alongside ongoing leverage and margin/shrink sensitivity risks.

Positive Factors

Consistent revenue and margin improvement

Multi-year revenue growth and visible margin expansion signal sustainable operational improvements and better cost control. This durable trend supports reinvestment in stores and programs, strengthens earnings power, and provides a buffer against moderate cost or demand shocks over the next several quarters.

Strong recent cash generation

Robust trailing‑12‑month operating and free cash flow increase financial flexibility for capex, dividends, and debt servicing. While cash conversion has been variable year-to-year, recent FCF supports the company’s store growth plan and shareholder returns without immediate reliance on new financing.

Loyalty program and private‑label traction

High rewards penetration and rising private‑label mix enhance customer retention and margin control. Structural gains in membership and owned brands drive repeat business, higher share of wallet and better gross margin mix over time, supporting steady revenue and profitability expansion.

Negative Factors

Elevated balance‑sheet leverage

Meaningful leverage limits financial flexibility in a low‑margin grocery model, raising interest and refinancing risk if conditions tighten. Though improving, sustained debt levels constrain capital allocation and increase vulnerability to margin pressure or weaker cash conversion over the medium term.

Inventory shrink driving margin volatility

Shrink and anomalous inventory events create recurring gross‑margin volatility in a business with limited margin headroom. Persistent or recurring shrink undermines profitability, requires operational fixes and investment, and reduces resilience to inflation or promotional pressure over coming quarters.

Execution and capital intensity of store growth

Aggressive unit expansion and meaningful capex are strategic for market share but tie up cash and compress near‑term EPS. Execution risk, preopening costs and potential slower ramp of new stores can strain margins and cash conversion, making growth a structural risk if consumer demand softens.

Natural Grocers Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, retails natural and organic groceries, and dietary supplements in the United States. The company's stores offer natural and organic grocery products, such as organic produce; bulk food products; private label products comprising pasta, pasta sauce, ketchup, canned beans and vegetables, frozen vegetables, frozen fruits, frozen meals, frozen pizza, bread, baking mixes, plant based butter, olive and coconut oil, coconut milk, honey, maple syrup, preserves, chocolate, coffee, bacon, beef jerky, canned seafood, popcorn, tortilla chips, taco shells, eggs, cheese, apple sauce, apple cider vinegar, spring water, paper products, cleaning products, and other products; dry, frozen, and canned groceries; meat and seafood products; dairy products, dairy substitutes, and eggs; prepared foods; bread and baked products; beverages; and beer, wine, and hard cider products. Its stores also provide private label dietary supplements; body care products consisting of cosmetics, skin care, hair care, fragrance, and personal care products containing natural and organic ingredients; pet care and food products; books and handouts; and household and general merchandise, including cleaning supplies, paper products, and dish and laundry soaps, as well as other common household products, such as diapers. The company operates its retail stores under the Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage trademark. As of February 1, 2022, it operated 162 stores in 20 states. The company also offers science-based nutrition education programs to help customers make informed health and nutrition choices. Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Lakewood, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Natural Grocers generates revenue primarily through the sale of natural and organic products in its retail stores. The company benefits from a diverse revenue model that includes the sale of groceries, health and wellness products, dietary supplements, and personal care items. Key revenue streams include in-store sales, which constitute the bulk of its earnings, as well as online sales through its website. Additionally, Natural Grocers may engage in partnerships with local farmers and suppliers to source fresh produce and unique products, enhancing its product offerings and potentially increasing customer loyalty. Seasonal promotions and loyalty programs also contribute to customer retention and sales growth, further boosting the company's revenue. Overall, Natural Grocers capitalizes on the growing demand for health-oriented and sustainable products, positioning itself as a leader in the natural grocery sector.

Natural Grocers Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue growth and profitability have improved meaningfully, with margin expansion and strong recent TTM free cash flow generation. Offsetting factors are still-notable balance-sheet leverage for a grocer and choppy year-to-year cash flow conversion, which reduces confidence versus steadier cash generators.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown steadily over the last several years (from $1.06B in 2021 to $1.33B in 2025 annual), with profitability improving meaningfully. Margins have expanded across the board, with net margin rising from ~2.0% (2021–2023 range) to ~3.5% in 2025 annual and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), and operating profitability improving alongside it. Strengths are the clear upward trajectory in earnings and better efficiency; the main weakness is that absolute profitability remains modest for the sector (mid-single-digit operating margin and low-single-digit net margin), leaving less cushion if costs rise or demand softens.

Balance Sheet

Leverage remains notable, with debt running higher than equity (debt-to-equity around 1.56 in 2025 vs. above 2.0 earlier years), although the leverage profile has improved versus 2021–2023. Equity has grown over time, and returns on equity are strong (roughly ~22% in 2025 annual and ~24% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)), reflecting improved profitability. The key risk is still balance-sheet leverage for a grocery retailer—while trending better, debt levels remain meaningful relative to the equity base.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear positive in the most recent period: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is $108.2M and free cash flow is $102.7M, showing strong conversion and a large step-up versus prior annual periods. That said, cash flow has been choppy year-to-year (notably weaker in 2025 annual free cash flow vs. 2024), and free cash flow is not consistently matching reported earnings (free cash flow relative to net income is below 1.0 across periods). Overall, the latest TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) performance is strong, but variability reduces confidence versus more stable cash generators.

Breakdown	TTM	Sep 2025	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.34B	1.33B	1.24B	1.14B	1.09B	1.06B
Gross Profit	397.91M	397.88M	364.81M	326.93M	304.88M	292.19M
EBITDA	95.13M	93.80M	77.91M	62.08M	58.76M	58.76M
Net Income	47.84M	46.44M	33.94M	23.24M	21.36M	20.58M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	668.56M	670.50M	655.48M	669.18M	663.11M	655.08M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	23.21M	17.12M	8.87M	18.34M	12.04M	23.68M
Total Debt	324.95M	332.02M	346.51M	370.18M	393.37M	401.52M
Total Liabilities	448.55M	458.11M	481.22M	498.34M	507.30M	512.35M
Stockholders Equity	220.01M	212.40M	174.25M	170.84M	155.81M	142.73M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	93.13M	24.10M	35.08M	26.51M	8.25M	25.59M
Operating Cash Flow	108.19M	55.30M	73.76M	64.61M	39.69M	53.88M
Investing Cash Flow	-31.13M	-30.97M	-38.60M	-37.95M	-31.14M	-27.75M
Financing Cash Flow	-60.16M	-16.09M	-44.63M	-20.35M	-20.19M	-30.98M

Natural Grocers Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 25.33
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NGVC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 25.33 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.19, below the 50-day MA of 25.77, and below the 200-day MA of 35.23, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NGVC.

Natural Grocers Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VLGEA	70 Outperform	$531.48M	10.42	11.22%	2.63%	3.88%	7.71%
NGVC	69 Neutral	$603.70M	12.76	23.81%	1.99%	7.19%	35.90%
WMK	67 Neutral	$1.80B	19.18	7.22%	2.06%	3.11%	6.54%
SFM	65 Neutral	$6.99B	13.92	38.43%	―	16.60%	49.76%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
IMKTA	60 Neutral	$1.65B	17.64	5.29%	0.93%	-5.42%	-20.80%
GO	52 Neutral	$990.20M	-209.87	-0.37%	―	7.22%	-108.99%

Natural Grocers Corporate Events

Natural Grocers Boosts Dividend Amid Strong Performance

On November 20, 2025, Natural Grocers announced a 25% increase in its quarterly cash dividend to $0.15 per share, reflecting strong fiscal 2025 performance. The company reported record sales and earnings for fiscal 2025, with net sales rising by 7.2% to $1.33 billion and net income increasing by 36.9% to $46.4 million. The company plans to continue its growth strategy by opening six to eight new stores in fiscal 2026, emphasizing its robust pipeline and execution capabilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (NGVC) stock is a Hold with a $33.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Natural Grocers stock, see the NGVC Stock Forecast page.