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Natural Grocers (NGVC)
NYSE:NGVC
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Natural Grocers
(NYSE:NGVC)
72Outperform
Natural Grocers (NGVC) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.16B
Dividend Yield0.87%
Average Volume (3M)155.64K
Price to Earnings (P/E)32.4
Beta (1Y)0.93
Revenue Growth9.31%
EPS Growth35.37%
CountryUS
Employees3,332
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength82
IndustryGrocery Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.56
Shares Outstanding22,931,227
10 Day Avg. Volume151,162
30 Day Avg. Volume155,644
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.92
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)0.00
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.09
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.46
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
Natural Grocers Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNatural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC) is a specialty retailer focused on providing high-quality natural and organic groceries, dietary supplements, and household products. Based in the United States, the company operates a chain of stores that emphasize healthy living and sustainability, offering a wide range of products including organic produce, vitamins, and body care items. Natural Grocers is committed to educating consumers through its in-store nutritional health coaches and providing affordable options for health-conscious customers.
How the Company Makes MoneyNatural Grocers makes money primarily through the sale of natural and organic groceries, dietary supplements, and household products at its retail locations. The company's key revenue streams include the sales of organic produce, packaged groceries, dietary supplements, and personal care products. In addition to in-store sales, Natural Grocers benefits from its loyalty program, which encourages repeat business from customers. The company also engages in educational initiatives and community outreach that enhance customer loyalty and brand reputation, contributing indirectly to its earnings. While the company does not have significant partnerships impacting its revenue model, its focus on high-quality, organic offerings and customer education sets it apart in the competitive retail grocery sector.
Natural Grocers Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Natural Grocers displays a positive financial trajectory with consistent revenue growth and effective cash flow management. While the balance sheet shows moderate leverage, which could be a concern, the company's strong cash flows and profitability metrics provide a stable foundation. Continued focus on operational efficiency could further enhance financial performance.Income Statement
Natural Grocers has demonstrated steady revenue growth with a noticeable increase from its previous year. The gross profit margin is healthy, indicating efficient management of cost of goods sold. However, net profit margin and EBIT margin are moderate, suggesting room for improvement in operational efficiency. The EBITDA margin is consistent, reflecting stable earnings before non-cash expenses.72
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company maintains a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, which indicates a balanced approach to leveraging. Return on equity is decent, showcasing an effective use of shareholder funds. However, the equity ratio suggests a higher reliance on liabilities compared to equity, which could pose risks if not managed properly.65
Positive
Cash Flow
Natural Grocers has shown strong growth in free cash flow, reflecting robust cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, indicating efficient conversion of revenue into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio supports a solid financial position, allowing for reinvestment and potential debt reduction.78
Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 | Sep 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 1.24B | 1.14B | 1.09B | 1.06B | 1.04B | Gross Profit |
| 364.81M | 326.93M | 304.88M | 292.19M | 283.14M | EBIT |
| 46.98M | 31.67M | 30.16M | 28.33M | 27.75M | EBITDA |
| 77.91M | 62.08M | 61.66M | 59.86M | 60.34M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 33.94M | 23.24M | 21.36M | 20.58M | 20.01M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 8.87M | 18.34M | 12.04M | 23.68M | 28.53M | Total Assets |
| 655.48M | 669.18M | 663.11M | 655.08M | 681.79M | Total Debt |
| 346.51M | 370.18M | 393.37M | 401.52M | 400.14M | Net Debt |
| 337.64M | 351.84M | 381.33M | 377.84M | 371.61M | Total Liabilities |
| 481.22M | 498.34M | 507.30M | 512.35M | 508.73M | Stockholders Equity |
| 174.25M | 170.84M | 155.81M | 142.73M | 173.07M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 35.08M | 26.51M | 8.25M | 25.59M | 36.92M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 73.76M | 64.61M | 39.69M | 53.88M | 66.50M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -38.60M | -37.95M | -31.14M | -27.75M | -29.56M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -44.63M | -20.35M | -20.19M | -30.98M | -14.63M |
Natural Grocers Technical Analysis
Positive
50.59
Price Trends
42.59
Positive
42.65
Positive
35.71
Positive
Market Momentum
2.28
Negative
73.15
Negative
79.20
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NGVC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 50.59 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 47.08, above the 50-day MA of 42.59, and above the 200-day MA of 35.71, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.28 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.15 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NGVC.
Natural Grocers Risk Analysis
Natural Grocers disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Natural Grocers reported the most risks in the “Production” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Natural Grocers Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $1.16B | 32.40 | 21.52% | 0.87% | 9.31% | 35.37% | |
72 Outperform | $17.02B | 39.16 | 35.74% | ― | 15.51% | 53.77% | |
71 Outperform | $620.33M | 16.38 | 6.35% | ― | 4.01% | 22.46% | |
67 Neutral | $1.17B | 15.25 | 5.15% | 1.06% | -7.38% | -57.42% | |
65 Neutral | $1.62B | 41.49 | 3.27% | ― | 10.13% | -50.29% | |
64 Neutral | $8.88B | 14.97 | 4.63% | 174.27% | 3.67% | 4.40% | |
53 Neutral | $1.62B | ― | -4.94% | ― | 4.73% | 29.70% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
NGVC
Natural Grocers
50.59
33.11
189.42%
IMKTA
Ingles Markets
63.20
-8.24
-11.53%
SENEA
Seneca Foods
89.86
32.52
56.71%
UNFI
United Natural Foods
26.81
17.12
176.68%
SFM
Sprouts Farmers
173.93
98.93
131.91%
GO
Grocery Outlet Holding
16.48
-9.33
-36.15%
Natural Grocers Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 06, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 1.06%|
Next Earnings Date:May 08, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong sales growth, improved earnings per share, and successful customer engagement initiatives, alongside plans for store expansion. However, there were some concerns regarding increased administrative expenses and timing-driven free cash flow variability.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Sales Growth
Net sales increased 9.4% from the prior year period to $330.2 million. Daily average comparable store sales increased 8.9% and 15.1% on a two-year basis.
Earnings Per Share Improvement
Diluted earnings per share increased 26.5% to $0.43 in the first quarter.
Customer Loyalty Programs
NPower Rewards program net sales penetration was 81%, up from 78% a year ago, reflecting continued positive trends in customer loyalty and engagement.
New Product Launches
Introduced 23 new Natural Grocers brand items, contributing to branded products accounting for 8.9% of total sales, up from 8.5% a year ago.
Financial Guidance Increase
Revised fiscal 2025 outlook for daily average comparable store sales growth to 5-7% and diluted earnings per share to $1.57-$1.65, up from previous estimates.
Store Expansion Plans
Plans to open four to six new stores and relocate or remodel two to four stores in fiscal 2025.
Negative Updates
Increased Administrative Expenses
Administrative expenses as a percentage of net sales increased 40 basis points, driven by higher compensation and technology expenses.
Timing-Driven Free Cash Flow Variability
Free cash flow impacted by timing-related working capital movements, particularly in accounts payable.
Company Guidance
During the first quarter fiscal year 2025 earnings call for Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc., the company provided an optimistic outlook with several key metrics indicating robust performance and future growth. Daily average comparable store sales increased by 15.1% on a two-year basis, with an 8.9% increase from the prior year, while transaction counts rose by 5.3%. Additionally, the net sales for the first quarter reached $330.2 million, marking a 9.4% increase. The company also reported a 26.5% year-over-year rise in diluted earnings per share to $0.43 and a 21.7% increase in adjusted EBITDA to $22.8 million. Furthermore, the Natural Grocers brand products accounted for 8.9% of total sales, up from 8.5% a year ago, bolstered by the launch of 23 new products. For fiscal year 2025, the company revised its outlook, forecasting daily average comparable store sales growth between 5% and 7% and an increase in diluted earnings per share between $1.57 and $1.65. The strategic plan includes opening four to six new stores, relocating or remodeling two to four stores, and investing $36 to $44 million in capital expenditures to support growth initiatives.Natural Grocers Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Natural Grocers Announces New Chief Financial Officer
Neutral
Jan 7, 2025
Todd Dissinger retired as Chief Financial Officer of Natural Grocers on December 31, 2024, with Richard Hallé taking over the position effective January 1, 2025. This leadership transition marks a significant change in the company’s financial management, potentially affecting its strategic direction and stakeholder relations.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.