Natural Grocers (NGVC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $953.36M
• Dividend Yield: 1.16%
• Average Volume (3M): 215.18K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 23.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.72
• Revenue Growth: 9.36%
• EPS Growth: 43.17%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,332
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 66
• Industry: Grocery Stores
• EPS (TTM): 0.75
• Shares Outstanding: 22,950,380
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 205,421
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 215,179
• PEG Ratio: 3.47
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.57
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 29.65
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.66
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.12
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.65
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.14
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $51.00 ▲(22.77%Upside)

Natural Grocers has a solid financial foundation with strong cash generation and profitability. Positive earnings call sentiment and guidance further enhance its outlook. However, technical indicators suggest caution, and the valuation is relatively average. The company's high leverage remains a risk factor.

Natural Grocers Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, retails natural and organic groceries, and dietary supplements in the United States. The company's stores offer natural and organic grocery products, such as organic produce; bulk food products; private label products comprising pasta, pasta sauce, ketchup, canned beans and vegetables, frozen vegetables, frozen fruits, frozen meals, frozen pizza, bread, baking mixes, plant based butter, olive and coconut oil, coconut milk, honey, maple syrup, preserves, chocolate, coffee, bacon, beef jerky, canned seafood, popcorn, tortilla chips, taco shells, eggs, cheese, apple sauce, apple cider vinegar, spring water, paper products, cleaning products, and other products; dry, frozen, and canned groceries; meat and seafood products; dairy products, dairy substitutes, and eggs; prepared foods; bread and baked products; beverages; and beer, wine, and hard cider products. Its stores also provide private label dietary supplements; body care products consisting of cosmetics, skin care, hair care, fragrance, and personal care products containing natural and organic ingredients; pet care and food products; books and handouts; and household and general merchandise, including cleaning supplies, paper products, and dish and laundry soaps, as well as other common household products, such as diapers. The company operates its retail stores under the Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage trademark. As of February 1, 2022, it operated 162 stores in 20 states. The company also offers science-based nutrition education programs to help customers make informed health and nutrition choices. Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Lakewood, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Natural Grocers makes money primarily through the sale of natural and organic groceries, dietary supplements, and household products at its retail locations. The company's key revenue streams include the sales of organic produce, packaged groceries, dietary supplements, and personal care products. In addition to in-store sales, Natural Grocers benefits from its loyalty program, which encourages repeat business from customers. The company also engages in educational initiatives and community outreach that enhance customer loyalty and brand reputation, contributing indirectly to its earnings. While the company does not have significant partnerships impacting its revenue model, its focus on high-quality, organic offerings and customer education sets it apart in the competitive retail grocery sector.

Natural Grocers Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Natural Grocers demonstrates solid financial performance with consistent revenue growth and improved profitability, despite high leverage. Strong cash generation and high returns on equity further bolster its financial position.

Income Statement

Natural Grocers has demonstrated consistent revenue growth with a TTM revenue increase of 4.5% from the previous year. The gross profit margin remains stable at 29.2%, signaling efficient cost management. The net profit margin has improved to 3.2%, reflecting enhanced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are at 4.3% and 5.6% respectively, showing operational efficiency improvements.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.74, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risks. However, the return on equity stands at a healthy 21.4%, showing effective use of shareholder funds to generate profits. The equity ratio of 29.0% suggests a relatively lower reliance on equity financing.

Cash Flow

Natural Grocers reports robust free cash flow growth of 64%, highlighting strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.78 reflects efficient conversion of net income into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio at 1.39 indicates solid cash flow sustainability relative to earnings.

Breakdown
TTM	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021	Sep 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.30B	1.24B	1.14B	1.09B	1.06B	1.04B
	Gross Profit
378.61M	364.81M	326.93M	304.88M	292.19M	283.14M
	EBIT
55.81M	46.98M	31.67M	30.16M	28.33M	27.75M
	EBITDA
72.29M	77.91M	62.08M	61.66M	59.86M	60.34M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
41.26M	33.94M	23.24M	21.36M	20.58M	20.01M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
21.21M	8.87M	18.34M	12.04M	23.68M	28.53M
	Total Assets
664.59M	655.48M	669.18M	663.11M	655.08M	681.79M
	Total Debt
335.56M	346.51M	370.18M	393.37M	401.52M	400.14M
	Net Debt
314.36M	337.64M	351.84M	381.33M	377.84M	371.61M
	Total Liabilities
303.89M	481.22M	498.34M	507.30M	512.35M	508.73M
	Stockholders Equity
192.97M	174.25M	170.84M	155.81M	142.73M	173.07M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
57.53M	35.08M	26.51M	8.25M	25.59M	36.92M
	Operating Cash Flow
73.66M	73.76M	64.61M	39.69M	53.88M	66.50M
	Investing Cash Flow
-31.97M	-38.60M	-37.95M	-31.14M	-27.75M	-29.56M
	Financing Cash Flow
-31.45M	-44.63M	-20.35M	-20.19M	-30.98M	-14.63M

Natural Grocers Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 41.54
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NGVC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 41.54 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 47.08, below the 50-day MA of 47.61, and above the 200-day MA of 39.10, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.65 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.24 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NGVC.

Natural Grocers Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SENEA	71 Outperform	$621.53M	15.31	6.77%	―	4.01%	22.46%
NGVC	70 Outperform	$953.36M	23.35	23.38%	1.16%	9.36%	43.17%
SFM	70 Outperform	$15.37B	35.55	35.74%	―	15.51%	53.77%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$8.81B	14.92	4.67%	6.17%	3.60%	-2.89%
IMKTA	61 Neutral	$1.13B	18.58	4.00%	1.09%	-7.79%	-64.85%
GO	60 Neutral	$1.34B	80.94	1.43%	―	10.37%	-73.84%
UNFI	48 Neutral	$1.31B	―	-4.11%	―	6.62%	53.12%

Natural Grocers Corporate Events

Natural Grocers Announces New Chief Financial Officer

Todd Dissinger retired as Chief Financial Officer of Natural Grocers on December 31, 2024, with Richard Hallé taking over the position effective January 1, 2025. This leadership transition marks a significant change in the company’s financial management, potentially affecting its strategic direction and stakeholder relations.