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Natural Grocers (NGVC)
NYSE:NGVC
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Natural Grocers
(NYSE:NGVC)
Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$56.00
▲( 12.18% Upside)
Natural Grocers (NGVC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.15B
Dividend Yield0.88%
Average Volume (3M)193.44K
Price to Earnings (P/E)28.1
Beta (1Y)0.71
Revenue Growth9.36%
EPS Growth43.17%
CountryUS
Employees3,332
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength75
IndustryGrocery Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.75
Shares Outstanding22,950,380
10 Day Avg. Volume209,061
30 Day Avg. Volume193,438
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio6.27
Price to Book (P/B)7.52
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio58.78
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.49
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.35
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.76
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.91
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
Natural Grocers Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNatural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, retails natural and organic groceries, and dietary supplements in the United States. The company's stores offer natural and organic grocery products, such as organic produce; bulk food products; private label products comprising pasta, pasta sauce, ketchup, canned beans and vegetables, frozen vegetables, frozen fruits, frozen meals, frozen pizza, bread, baking mixes, plant based butter, olive and coconut oil, coconut milk, honey, maple syrup, preserves, chocolate, coffee, bacon, beef jerky, canned seafood, popcorn, tortilla chips, taco shells, eggs, cheese, apple sauce, apple cider vinegar, spring water, paper products, cleaning products, and other products; dry, frozen, and canned groceries; meat and seafood products; dairy products, dairy substitutes, and eggs; prepared foods; bread and baked products; beverages; and beer, wine, and hard cider products. Its stores also provide private label dietary supplements; body care products consisting of cosmetics, skin care, hair care, fragrance, and personal care products containing natural and organic ingredients; pet care and food products; books and handouts; and household and general merchandise, including cleaning supplies, paper products, and dish and laundry soaps, as well as other common household products, such as diapers. The company operates its retail stores under the Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage trademark. As of February 1, 2022, it operated 162 stores in 20 states. The company also offers science-based nutrition education programs to help customers make informed health and nutrition choices. Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Lakewood, Colorado.
How the Company Makes MoneyNatural Grocers makes money primarily through the sale of natural and organic groceries, dietary supplements, and household products at its retail locations. The company's key revenue streams include the sales of organic produce, packaged groceries, dietary supplements, and personal care products. In addition to in-store sales, Natural Grocers benefits from its loyalty program, which encourages repeat business from customers. The company also engages in educational initiatives and community outreach that enhance customer loyalty and brand reputation, contributing indirectly to its earnings. While the company does not have significant partnerships impacting its revenue model, its focus on high-quality, organic offerings and customer education sets it apart in the competitive retail grocery sector.
Natural Grocers Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Overall, Natural Grocers displays a positive financial trajectory with consistent revenue growth and effective cash flow management. While the balance sheet shows moderate leverage, which could be a concern, the company's strong cash flows and profitability metrics provide a stable foundation. Continued focus on operational efficiency could further enhance financial performance.Income Statement
Natural Grocers has demonstrated steady revenue growth with a noticeable increase from its previous year. The gross profit margin is healthy, indicating efficient management of cost of goods sold. However, net profit margin and EBIT margin are moderate, suggesting room for improvement in operational efficiency. The EBITDA margin is consistent, reflecting stable earnings before non-cash expenses.72
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company maintains a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, which indicates a balanced approach to leveraging. Return on equity is decent, showcasing an effective use of shareholder funds. However, the equity ratio suggests a higher reliance on liabilities compared to equity, which could pose risks if not managed properly.65
Positive
Cash Flow
Natural Grocers has shown strong growth in free cash flow, reflecting robust cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, indicating efficient conversion of revenue into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio supports a solid financial position, allowing for reinvestment and potential debt reduction.78
Positive
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 | Sep 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 1.27B | 1.24B | 1.14B | 1.09B | 1.06B | 1.04B | Gross Profit |
| 359.73M | 364.81M | 326.93M | 304.88M | 292.19M | 283.14M | EBIT |
| 50.21M | 46.98M | 31.67M | 30.16M | 28.33M | 27.75M | EBITDA |
| 74.39M | 77.91M | 62.08M | 61.66M | 59.86M | 60.34M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 36.12M | 33.94M | 23.24M | 21.36M | 20.58M | 20.01M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 6.32M | 8.87M | 18.34M | 12.04M | 23.68M | 28.53M | Total Assets |
| 648.88M | 655.48M | 669.18M | 663.11M | 655.08M | 681.79M | Total Debt |
| 347.13M | 346.51M | 370.18M | 393.37M | 401.52M | 400.14M | Net Debt |
| 340.82M | 337.64M | 351.84M | 381.33M | 377.84M | 371.61M | Total Liabilities |
| 467.00M | 481.22M | 498.34M | 507.30M | 512.35M | 508.73M | Stockholders Equity |
| 181.88M | 174.25M | 170.84M | 155.81M | 142.73M | 173.07M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| 23.30M | 35.08M | 26.51M | 8.25M | 25.59M | 36.92M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 59.82M | 73.76M | 64.61M | 39.69M | 53.88M | 66.50M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -36.21M | -38.60M | -37.95M | -31.14M | -27.75M | -29.56M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -30.91M | -44.63M | -20.35M | -20.19M | -30.98M | -14.63M |
Natural Grocers Technical Analysis
Positive
49.92
Price Trends
45.76
Positive
44.15
Positive
37.68
Positive
Market Momentum
1.18
Positive
51.40
Neutral
13.29
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NGVC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 49.92 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 50.68, above the 50-day MA of 45.76, and above the 200-day MA of 37.68, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.18 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.29 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NGVC.
Natural Grocers Risk Analysis
Natural Grocers disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Natural Grocers reported the most risks in the “Production” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Natural Grocers Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $1.15B | 28.06 | 23.38% | 0.88% | 9.36% | 43.17% | |
72 Outperform | $15.99B | 36.79 | 35.74% | ― | 15.51% | 53.77% | |
71 Outperform | $630.73M | 16.67 | 6.35% | ― | 4.01% | 22.46% | |
68 Neutral | $1.11B | 18.38 | 4.00% | 1.10% | -7.79% | -64.85% | |
64 Neutral | $8.82B | 14.56 | 4.78% | 173.92% | 3.50% | 2.20% | |
63 Neutral | $1.78B | ― | -4.94% | ― | 4.73% | 29.70% | |
60 Neutral | $1.30B | 78.92 | 1.43% | ― | 10.37% | -73.84% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
NGVC
Natural Grocers
49.92
29.22
141.16%
IMKTA
Ingles Markets
59.91
-11.70
-16.34%
SENEA
Seneca Foods
91.48
31.08
51.46%
UNFI
United Natural Foods
29.34
17.55
148.85%
SFM
Sprouts Farmers
163.43
84.49
107.03%
GO
Grocery Outlet Holding
13.29
-8.71
-39.59%
Natural Grocers Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: 8.83%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance with record sales, improved earnings per share, and successful customer engagement initiatives. Although there were some increased administrative expenses and a reduction in new store guidance, the positive aspects and growth metrics significantly outweighed the negatives.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Sales and Earnings
The company delivered record sales and earnings in the second quarter, with net sales increasing 9% from the prior year to $335.8 million.
Strong Comparable Store Sales Growth
Daily average comparable store sales increased by 8.9% and accelerated to 16.4% on a two-year basis.
Increase in Diluted Earnings per Share
Diluted earnings per share increased by 60% to $0.56 in the second quarter.
Improved Operating Margin
Operating margin improved by 150 basis points, and operating income increased by 55.9% to $17.6 million.
Loyalty Program Success
Net sales penetration of the Empower Rewards program was 81%, up from 78% a year ago.
New Store Openings and Expansion
Opened new stores in Brownsville and Waco, Texas, and plan to expand into a new state.
Negative Updates
Increased Administrative Expenses
Administrative expenses as a percentage of net sales increased by 20 basis points due to technology expenses and higher compensation.
Reduced New Store Guidance
Revised outlook for new store openings reduced to three to four compared to prior outlook of four to six.
Company Guidance
During the Natural Grocers Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2025 earnings call, the company provided updated guidance reflecting strong performance metrics. The daily average comparable store sales growth increased to between 6.5% and 7.5%, up from the previous outlook of 5% to 7%. Additionally, diluted earnings per share are now projected to be between $1.78 and $1.86, compared to the prior guidance of $1.57 to $1.65. The company also revised its outlook for new store openings to three to four, down from the initial expectation of four to six. Despite a strong first half, they anticipate sales comps to moderate in the second half while maintaining a flat to slightly lower year-over-year gross margin. Natural Grocers emphasizes its value proposition of high-quality, natural, and organic products at affordable prices as a key driver amid economic uncertainties.Natural Grocers Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Natural Grocers Announces New Chief Financial Officer
Neutral
Jan 7, 2025
Todd Dissinger retired as Chief Financial Officer of Natural Grocers on December 31, 2024, with Richard Hallé taking over the position effective January 1, 2025. This leadership transition marks a significant change in the company’s financial management, potentially affecting its strategic direction and stakeholder relations.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.