Village Super Market (VLGEA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $550.32M
• Dividend Yield: 2.63%
• Average Volume (3M): 44.44K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.38
• Revenue Growth: 3.88%
• EPS Growth: 7.71%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,190
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Grocery Stores
• EPS (TTM): 1.21
• Shares Outstanding: 10,626,925
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 54,359
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 44,444
• PEG Ratio: 8.89
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.08
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.23
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.39
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.42
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.33
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.18
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.68
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $45.00 ▲(30.13% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/05/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/05/26

VLGEA scores well primarily on improving financial performance (revenue growth, better profitability vs earlier years, and meaningful deleveraging) and supportive technicals (price above key moving averages with positive MACD). The score is held back by limited valuation visibility due to an unusable P/E input, structurally thin grocery margins with a recent gross margin dip, and some added complexity/risk in the NMTC-related financing structure.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth Trend

Consistent top-line expansion over multiple years shows durable customer demand and successful store/format execution. Steady revenue growth supports scale benefits, underpins margin recovery opportunities, and provides a larger cash base for reinvestment and debt reduction over the medium term.

Deleveraging / Stronger Balance Sheet

Material reduction in leverage over several years increases financial flexibility and resilience to cyclical pressures. Lower leverage reduces refinancing risk and interest burden, enabling the company to fund capex, pursue opportunistic store investment, and better withstand modest sales or margin volatility.

Improving Cash Generation

Rising operating cash flow and a meaningful jump in free cash flow signal stronger cash conversion and internal funding capacity. Improved cash generation supports dividend sustainability, debt paydown, and capital investments, giving management more optionality without relying on external financing.

Negative Factors

Structurally Low Margins

Grocery is a low-margin, high-volume industry and a recent TTM gross margin dip underscores limited pricing power versus input cost swings. Persistent margin pressure from labor, food inflation, or competitive pricing could compress operating profits and limit the firm's ability to expand margins.

Absolute Debt Level

Although leverage ratios improved, the company carries meaningful absolute debt which raises exposure to economic slowdowns or cost shocks. Material debt levels constrain strategic flexibility, increase interest expense sensitivity, and heighten downside risk if sales or cash flow weaken.

NMTC Financing Complexity & Governance Risk

The New Markets Tax Credit structure provides cheap funding but creates multi-year compliance, recapture exposure, and related-party JV arrangements. These obligations add operational complexity, potential indemnities, and governance oversight that can create legal/financial risk and distract management resources.

Village Super Market Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Village Super Market, Inc. operates a chain of supermarkets in the United States. Its stores feature specialty departments, such as an on-site bakery, an expanded delicatessen; and various natural and organic foods, ethnic and international foods, prepared foods, and pharmacies. The company operates a chain of twenty-nine ShopRite supermarkets, five Fairway Markets, and three Gourmet Garage specialty markets located in New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, and Maryland. Village Super Market, Inc. was founded in 1937 and is based in Springfield, New Jersey.

How the Company Makes Money

Village Super Market generates revenue primarily through the sale of grocery and household products in its stores. The company operates on a low-margin, high-volume business model typical for grocery retailers, relying on a large customer base to drive sales. Key revenue streams include the sale of perishable and non-perishable food items, health and beauty products, and household essentials. Additionally, Village Super Market benefits from its membership in the Wakefern Food Corporation, which allows it to leverage collective purchasing power for better pricing and product variety. Seasonal promotions, loyalty programs, and partnerships with local suppliers also contribute to customer retention and increased sales.

Village Super Market Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are steady and improving: revenue expanded from $2.03B (FY2021) to $2.32B (FY2025) and $2.39B (TTM) with net margin improving to ~2.4% (FY2025/TTM). Balance sheet leverage improved materially (debt/equity ~1.17x in FY2021 to ~0.64x TTM) and ROE has been stable around ~11–12%. Cash generation improved (TTM FCF ~$62M vs ~$34M FY2025), but cash conversion is uneven (TTM FCF ~56% of net income), and the business remains structurally low-margin with a noted TTM gross margin dip.

Income Statement

VLGEA shows steady top-line expansion, with revenue rising from $2.03B (FY2021) to $2.32B (FY2025) and $2.39B in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Profitability has improved versus earlier years (net margin ~1.0% in FY2021 to ~2.4% in FY2025 and ~2.4% in TTM), indicating better cost control and/or mix. However, the business remains structurally low-margin (typical for grocery), and TTM gross margin dipped versus FY2024–FY2025, which is a key risk if pricing or labor/food inflation pressures persist.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has trended meaningfully better, with debt relative to equity improving from ~1.17x (FY2021) to ~0.69x (FY2025) and ~0.64x in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), alongside rising equity over time. Returns on equity are healthy and stable around ~11–12% from FY2023 through TTM, reflecting consistent profitability. The main weakness is that debt is still sizable in absolute terms (TTM total debt ~$329M), leaving the company more exposed than a low-debt peer if operating conditions weaken.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid and improving: operating cash flow increased to ~$111M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) from ~$93M in FY2025, and free cash flow jumped to ~$62M in TTM from ~$34M in FY2025 (strong growth off a lower base). That said, cash flow conversion is not consistently strong—free cash flow is only ~56% of net income in TTM (and ~37% in FY2025), and operating cash flow covered only ~58% of net income in TTM—suggesting working-capital swings and/or elevated reinvestment needs can dampen near-term cash conversion.

Breakdown	TTM	Jul 2025	Jul 2024	Jul 2023	Jul 2022	Jul 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.39B	2.32B	2.24B	2.17B	2.06B	2.03B
Gross Profit	658.98M	662.97M	641.98M	616.45M	579.67M	565.04M
EBITDA	116.69M	110.23M	112.31M	112.66M	77.68M	68.50M
Net Income	56.55M	56.38M	50.46M	49.72M	26.83M	19.99M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.03B	1.00B	981.66M	967.71M	924.45M	889.00M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	160.10M	110.70M	117.26M	140.91M	134.83M	116.31M
Total Debt	329.14M	340.55M	371.68M	392.58M	403.58M	399.84M
Total Liabilities	510.58M	511.75M	534.11M	557.54M	552.34M	547.53M
Stockholders Equity	516.67M	491.96M	447.56M	410.17M	372.11M	341.47M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	62.12M	34.46M	17.74M	58.11M	36.35M	27.46M
Operating Cash Flow	111.05M	93.22M	80.85M	104.51M	79.63M	52.69M
Investing Cash Flow	-65.19M	-75.58M	-78.01M	-88.43M	-46.42M	-26.37M
Financing Cash Flow	-18.58M	-24.21M	-26.48M	-10.01M	-14.69M	-21.69M

Village Super Market Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 34.58
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VLGEA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 34.58 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.50, below the 50-day MA of 37.22, and below the 200-day MA of 36.12, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.85 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.93 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VLGEA.

Village Super Market Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VLGEA	71 Outperform	$550.32M	7.26	11.37%	2.63%	3.88%	7.71%
DDL	67 Neutral	$566.33M	17.51	23.09%	―	8.34%	40.20%
NGVC	66 Neutral	$575.37M	12.71	23.11%	1.99%	7.19%	35.90%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
IMKTA	60 Neutral	$1.61B	11.86	5.29%	0.93%	-5.42%	-20.80%
WMK	58 Neutral	$1.56B	17.84	6.83%	2.06%	3.11%	6.54%
GO	45 Neutral	$596.77M	-4.43	-19.78%	―	7.22%	-108.99%

Village Super Market Corporate Events

Village Super Market secures NMTC financing for new store

On December 19, 2025, Village Super Market, Inc. entered into a New Markets Tax Credit financing transaction with Valley National Bank’s community investment fund to help fund the construction and opening costs of a replacement store in East Orange, New Jersey, a qualified low-income community. Through a layered structure involving an investment fund and a community development entity, approximately $5.6 million in low-interest, long-term financing was provided to a Village subsidiary, with the company expecting to recognize a $1.1 million pretax benefit over the seven-year NMTC compliance period, while bearing obligations to maintain program compliance and potentially indemnify Valley Bank if tax credits are recaptured. The company also formed a joint venture, VSM New Markets II LLC, with CEO John J. Sumas as a related party to act as the leverage lender; Sumas contributed a $0.2 million loan under a promissory note at 7% interest and the remaining leverage funds were provided by the company, with the related party terms reviewed and approved by the board’s audit committee.

The most recent analyst rating on (VLGEA) stock is a Buy with a $39.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Village Super Market stock, see the VLGEA Stock Forecast page.