Dingdong (DDL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $650.96M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.06M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.15
• Revenue Growth: 8.34%
• EPS Growth: 40.20%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,120
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Grocery Stores
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 180,407,230
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,881,915
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,056,850
• PEG Ratio: -0.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 6.49
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.22
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.23
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 9.40
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.26
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.86
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 16.11
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $3.50 ▲(15.51% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/06/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/06/26

The score is led by strong technical momentum (price above major moving averages with positive MACD) and a favorable earnings-call read highlighting record results and sustained profitability. This is tempered by mixed financial quality—high leverage, thin net margins, and declining free cash flow growth—while valuation appears reasonable but lacks dividend support.

Positive Factors

Consistent Profitability

Sustained multi-quarter profitability demonstrates durable operational control and the ability to generate positive earnings through cycles. This track record supports reinvestment, creditor confidence, and competitive resilience in instant retail, reducing execution risk over a 2–6 month horizon.

High gross margins and product mix

A ~30% gross margin and a disproportionate GMV contribution from curated 'good products' indicate structural margin support from differentiated assortment and supplier relationships. This mix raises retention and repurchase rates, improving sustainable unit economics versus commodity grocery sellers.

Strategic market expansion

A clear multi-pronged strategy targeting product leadership, lower-tier city growth, and international expansion provides durable avenues for revenue diversification and market share gains. Execution here reduces dependence on a single region and drives long-term TAM expansion.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage

Significant leverage raises refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity, constraining financial flexibility if growth slows. High debt amplifies downside risk from cyclical revenue or margin pressure, limiting the firm's ability to invest opportunistically or weather macro shocks over several quarters.

Thin net margins and margin erosion

Very thin net margins leave little buffer for rising costs or competitive price pressure. A YoY gross margin decline signals margin compression risk from intensifying competition or category price declines, threatening sustained profitability unless offset by mix or efficiency gains.

Weak cash generation trends

Declining FCF growth and low OCF/NI conversion indicate limited near-term cash generation, which, combined with high leverage, pressures liquidity and investment capacity. This constrains capital for expansion, working capital, or debt reduction if the revenue trajectory weakens.

Dingdong Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Dingdong (Cayman) Limited operates an e-commerce company in China. The company offers fresh produce, meat, seafood, prepared food, and other food products, such as dairy and bakery products, snacks, oil, seasonings, and beverages. It operates as a self-operated online retail business primarily through Dingdong Fresh. The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

How the Company Makes Money

Dingdong generates revenue primarily through its online grocery sales, where customers place orders on its platform for home delivery. The company earns a margin on the products sold, which includes fresh produce, packaged goods, and household items. Additionally, Dingdong may have partnerships with various suppliers and manufacturers, allowing for better pricing and exclusive product offerings. The company may also explore subscription models or delivery fees for expedited services, contributing to its overall revenue. Key factors influencing its earnings include the expansion of its delivery network, customer acquisition strategies, and overall market demand for online grocery services.

Dingdong Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: revenue has been growing and gross margin is solid (~30%), but profitability remains thin (TTM net margin ~1.38%). Balance sheet leverage is elevated (debt-to-equity 2.69) and free cash flow growth declined (TTM -17.57%), partially offset by decent conversion of net income to free cash flow (FCF/NI 0.87).

Income Statement

Dingdong's income statement shows a positive trajectory with a consistent increase in revenue over the years, highlighted by a 1.6% growth in TTM. The gross profit margin remains strong at around 30%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is relatively low at 1.38% in TTM, suggesting limited profitability. The company has improved its EBIT and EBITDA margins, but they remain modest, reflecting ongoing challenges in operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.69 in TTM, indicating significant leverage and potential financial risk. Despite this, the return on equity has improved to 41.41%, showing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is low, suggesting a heavy reliance on debt financing, which could pose risks if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth by 17.57% in TTM, raising concerns about cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.16, indicating moderate cash conversion efficiency. The free cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 0.87, suggesting that a significant portion of net income is being converted into free cash flow, which is a positive sign.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	23.90B	23.07B	19.97B	24.22B	20.12B	11.34B
Gross Profit	7.09B	6.95B	6.12B	7.49B	4.04B	2.23B
EBITDA	379.75M	482.31M	182.10M	-462.22M	-6.12B	-3.02B
Net Income	330.55M	295.08M	-99.88M	-814.37M	-6.43B	-3.18B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.76B	7.12B	7.70B	9.38B	9.42B	4.92B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.97B	4.45B	5.31B	6.49B	5.23B	2.38B
Total Debt	2.54B	3.03B	4.52B	5.61B	5.39B	2.85B
Total Liabilities	5.69B	6.19B	7.20B	8.96B	8.66B	5.67B
Stockholders Equity	942.76M	798.61M	382.53M	310.18M	728.07M	-744.67M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	676.97M	830.85M	-317.93M	-19.75M	-6.12B	-2.30B
Operating Cash Flow	775.15M	929.03M	-234.61M	107.14M	-5.67B	-2.06B
Investing Cash Flow	-115.68M	475.50M	519.33M	-66.90M	-4.07B	-1.02B
Financing Cash Flow	-794.09M	-1.72B	-934.42M	1.11B	9.04B	3.66B

Dingdong Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 3.03
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DDL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.89, above the 50-day MA of 2.74, and above the 200-day MA of 2.23, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DDL.

Dingdong Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VLGEA	70 Outperform	$531.48M	10.30	11.22%	2.63%	3.88%	7.71%
NGVC	69 Neutral	$603.70M	12.51	23.81%	1.99%	7.19%	35.90%
DDL	67 Neutral	$650.96M	17.36	33.30%	―	8.34%	40.20%
WMK	67 Neutral	$1.80B	19.37	7.22%	2.06%	3.11%	6.54%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
IMKTA	60 Neutral	$1.65B	17.36	5.29%	0.93%	-5.42%	-20.80%
GO	52 Neutral	$990.20M	-211.97	-0.37%	―	7.22%	-108.99%

Dingdong Corporate Events

Dingdong Reports Continued Growth and Profitability in Q3 2025

Dingdong (Cayman) Limited announced its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, showing a continued trend of growth and profitability. The company reported a 1.9% year-over-year increase in revenue, reaching RMB6,662.4 million, and maintained profitability for the seventh consecutive quarter under GAAP standards. Despite challenges such as price declines in certain categories and operational suspensions in 2024, Dingdong’s strategic resilience and execution excellence have enabled it to sustain growth and profitability. The company has also seen a rise in the number of orders and improved market penetration in East China, supported by its ‘One Big, One Small, One World’ framework and strong cash reserves.

The most recent analyst rating on (DDL) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dingdong stock, see the DDL Stock Forecast page.