Dingdong (DDL) AI Stock Analysis

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Dingdong

(NYSE:DDL)

Rating:67Neutral

Price Target:

$2.50

▲(12.11%Upside)

Dingdong's overall stock score is driven by its improved financial performance and stable technical indicators. The company's valuation suggests reasonable pricing, although the lack of a dividend yield and historical financial challenges weigh slightly on the assessment.

Dingdong (DDL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$494.24M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)397.46K

Price to Earnings (P/E)12.2

Beta (1Y)0.95

Revenue Growth16.90%

EPS GrowthN/A

CountryUS

Employees3,120

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength64

IndustryGrocery Stores

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)<0.01

Shares Outstanding180,623,400

10 Day Avg. Volume364,874

30 Day Avg. Volume397,465

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-7.32

Price to Book (P/B)4.31

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio4.33

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$2.00

Price Target Upside-10.31% Downside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering0

Dingdong Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionDingdong (Cayman) Limited operates an e-commerce company in China. The company offers fresh produce, meat, seafood, prepared food, and other food products, such as dairy and bakery products, snacks, oil, seasonings, and beverages. It operates as a self-operated online retail business primarily through Dingdong Fresh. The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

How the Company Makes MoneyDingdong (DDL) generates revenue primarily through the sale of fresh groceries and daily essentials via its e-commerce platform. Customers place orders through the Dingdong app or website, and the company fulfills these orders through its network of distribution centers and delivery personnel. The key revenue streams include the direct sale of food items and household goods, service fees associated with delivery, and potentially membership fees for premium services. Additionally, Dingdong may engage in partnerships with local farms and suppliers to secure favorable pricing and ensure a steady supply of quality products, which can enhance its profit margins. The company's earnings are significantly influenced by its operational efficiency, user base growth, and the ability to maintain competitive pricing in a rapidly evolving market.

Dingdong Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 16, 2025

(Q3-2024)

% Change Since: -6.30%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 27, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance, with significant revenue and profit growth, expansion in user base, and strategic geographical market penetration. Although there were minor challenges in profit margins and certain regional markets, the overall sentiment was positive given the consistent profitability and strategic growth initiatives.

Q3-2024 Updates

Positive Updates

Consistent Profitability Achieved

Dingdong achieved non-GAAP profitability for the eighth consecutive quarter and GAAP profitability for the third consecutive quarter.

Revenue and GMV Growth

Revenue increased by 27.2% year-over-year to CNY 6.54 billion and GMV grew by 28.3% to CNY 7.27 billion.

User Base Expansion

Average number of active transacting users rose to approximately 8.22 million, a 24.5% year-over-year increase.

Geographical Growth in Key Markets

Shanghai's GMV increased by 24.5% year-over-year, while Jiangsu and Zhejiang saw approximately 40% growth each.

Improved Cash Flow and Financial Position

Operating net cash inflow in Q3 reached CNY 400 million, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of net cash inflow from operating activities.

Strong Performance in Lower-Tier Cities

Excluding top cities, other cities across Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions increased GMV by over 40% year-over-year.

Expansion of Product Categories

Introduced an array of new products, contributing to the frequency of purchases and number of items per order.

Negative Updates

Decreased Gross Profit Margin

Gross profit margin decreased by 0.6 percentage points year-over-year due to strategic decisions to pass supply chain benefits to consumers.

Challenges in Beijing and Guangzhou-Shenzhen Regions

Despite improvements, the GMV growth in Beijing and Guangzhou-Shenzhen regions were relatively modest at 14.6% and 2.9%, respectively.

Company Guidance

During Dingdong Limited's Q3 2024 earnings call, management provided robust guidance highlighting significant growth across key financial metrics. The company reported a 28.3% year-over-year increase in GMV, reaching CNY 7.27 billion, while revenue rose by 27.2% to CNY 6.54 billion. Non-GAAP net profit surged over ninefold to CNY 160 million, with a profit margin of 2.5%, and GAAP net profit soared 62-fold to CNY 133 million, achieving a 2% margin. The average number of active transacting users climbed by 24.5% to approximately 8.22 million, with user stickiness mirrored in a 6.1% rise in average orders per month. The company also expanded its frontline fulfillment stations, enhancing geographical penetration in key regions like Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, which saw GMV growth of up to 40%. Improvements in the supply chain and operational efficiencies contributed to a gross profit margin of 29.8% and a fulfillment expense rate reduction to 21.4%. Looking ahead, Dingdong remains optimistic about continuing its trajectory of sustainable growth, raising targets for new fulfillment station openings and expecting further profitability increments in Q4 and the full year of 2024.

Dingdong Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Dingdong has shown significant financial improvement in 2024 with positive net profit and EBIT margins, indicating effective cost management. Despite high historical leverage, the company has improved its financial stability and cash flow metrics, though caution is needed due to ongoing high debt levels.

Income Statement

Positive

Dingdong has shown significant improvement in its income statement metrics over the years. The revenue growth from 2023 to 2024 is approximately 15.5%, indicating strong top-line expansion. The company has turned around from negative EBIT and net income in previous years to positive figures in 2024, with a net profit margin of 1.28% and an EBIT margin of 0.93%. This turnaround showcases effective cost management and improved profitability. However, the historical negative profits highlight past operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet reflects a reduction in leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio decreasing from 11.83 in 2023 to 3.79 in 2024, indicating improved financial stability. The equity ratio increased to 11.22%, but the company still maintains a relatively high level of debt compared to equity, suggesting potential financial risk. The increase in stockholders' equity from previous years is a positive sign of strengthened financial position.

Cash Flow

Positive

Dingdong's cash flow statement shows a notable improvement in free cash flow, turning positive in 2024 from negative figures in previous years. The free cash flow to net income ratio is approximately 2.81, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 3.15, reflecting strong cash flow management. However, historical negative cash flows underline past liquidity challenges.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	23.07B	19.97B	24.22B	20.12B	11.34B
Gross Profit	6.95B	6.12B	7.49B	4.04B	2.23B
EBITDA	265.44M	182.10M	-528.46M	-6.12B	-3.02B
Net Income	295.08M	-99.88M	-806.88M	-6.43B	-3.21B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	7.12B	7.70B	9.38B	9.42B	4.92B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.45B	5.31B	6.49B	5.23B	2.38B
Total Debt	3.03B	4.52B	5.61B	5.39B	2.85B
Total Liabilities	6.19B	7.20B	8.96B	8.66B	5.67B
Stockholders Equity	798.61M	382.53M	310.18M	728.07M	-744.67M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	830.85M	-317.93M	-19.75M	-6.12B	-2.30B
Operating Cash Flow	929.03M	-234.61M	107.14M	-5.67B	-2.06B
Investing Cash Flow	475.50M	519.33M	-66.90M	-4.07B	-1.02B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.72B	-934.42M	1.11B	9.04B	3.66B

Dingdong Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price2.23

Price Trends

50DMA

2.14

Positive

100DMA

2.40

Negative

200DMA

3.04

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

0.04

Negative

RSI

52.21

Neutral

STOCH

46.44

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DDL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.23 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.18, above the 50-day MA of 2.14, and below the 200-day MA of 3.04, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DDL.

Dingdong Risk Analysis

Dingdong disclosed 79 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Dingdong reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks

Implementation of the Law of the PRC on Safeguarding National Security in Hong Kong involves uncertainty, and the recent policy pronouncements by the PRC government regarding business activities of U.S.-listed PRC businesses may negatively impact our business. Q4, 2023

Dingdong Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VLGEA	70 Outperform	$484.06M	9.38	11.87%	2.78%	3.94%	12.50%
WMK	69 Neutral	$2.08B	19.32	7.54%	1.77%	1.76%	6.01%
DDL	67 Neutral	$494.24M	12.25	47.00%	―	16.90%	―
NGVC	67 Neutral	$913.20M	22.37	23.38%	1.15%	9.36%	43.17%
IMKTA	65 Neutral	$1.23B	20.35	4.00%	1.01%	-7.79%	-64.85%
Sector *	62 Neutral	AU$2.94B	27.78	4.69%	4.95%	2.28%	-33.31%
GO	58 Neutral	$1.37B	82.42	1.43%	―	10.37%	-73.84%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

DDL

Dingdong

2.23

0.42

23.20%

IMKTA

Ingles Markets

65.11

-13.76

-17.45%

VLGEA

Village Super Market

35.94

6.96

24.02%

WMK

Weis Markets

76.97

3.29

4.47%

NGVC

Natural Grocers

39.98

15.14

60.95%

Grocery Outlet Holding

13.88

-6.98

-33.46%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 26, 2025