Grocery Outlet Holding (GO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.10B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.84M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.71
• Revenue Growth: 7.22%
• EPS Growth: -108.99%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,692
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Grocery Stores
• EPS (TTM): 0.21
• Shares Outstanding: 98,137,230
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,280,526
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,839,491
• PEG Ratio: -0.77
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.28
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.35
• P/FCF Ratio: -20.46
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.01
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.73
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.40
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 21.98
• 1Y Price Target: $15.88
• Price Target Upside: 41.41% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.79
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $4.70B

• Rating: 45 Neutral
• Price Target: $10.00 ▼(-10.95% Downside)

Grocery Outlet Holding's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its financial performance and technical analysis. The company faces significant profitability and cash flow challenges, and the stock is experiencing bearish momentum. Valuation metrics are also weak, with a negative P/E ratio and no dividend yield. These factors collectively result in a low overall score.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The consistent revenue growth, driven by new store openings and increased comparable store sales, indicates a strong market position and potential for future expansion.

Store Refresh Program

The success of the store refresh program suggests operational improvements and enhanced customer experience, which could drive long-term sales growth.

Leadership Additions

The addition of experienced leaders in key roles is likely to enhance operational efficiency and supply chain management, supporting sustainable growth.

Negative Factors

Profitability Challenges

The negative net profit margin reflects ongoing profitability challenges, which could hinder reinvestment in growth initiatives and impact financial health.

Cash Flow Issues

The decline in free cash flow growth suggests liquidity risks, potentially limiting the company's ability to fund operations and strategic investments.

Comparable Store Sales

Underperformance in comparable store sales indicates challenges in driving organic growth, which may affect overall revenue and market competitiveness.

Grocery Outlet Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. is an American discount grocery retailer that operates a chain of stores across the United States. It primarily focuses on offering a wide variety of grocery products, including fresh produce, dairy, meat, and pantry staples, at significantly reduced prices. The company operates through a unique business model that includes both traditional retail and a focus on providing consumers with high-quality products that are often surplus or overstock items from major manufacturers, helping to minimize waste while maximizing value for customers.

How the Company Makes Money

Grocery Outlet generates revenue primarily through the sale of grocery items at discounted prices. Its revenue model is based on purchasing surplus and discontinued products from manufacturers and wholesalers at lower costs and then passing on those savings to consumers. Key revenue streams include sales of perishable goods such as fruits, vegetables, meats, and dairy products, as well as non-perishable items like canned goods, snacks, and household products. The company also benefits from strong partnerships with suppliers who provide products at reduced prices, allowing Grocery Outlet to maintain a wide variety of inventory while keeping operational costs low. Additionally, the company's franchise model allows for further income generation through franchise fees and royalties from its franchisee partners.

Grocery Outlet Holding Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Grocery Outlet Holding shows stable revenue growth and gross profit margins, but faces challenges with profitability and cash flow management. The high leverage and declining return on equity highlight potential financial risks. Overall, the company needs to focus on improving operational efficiency and cash flow generation to enhance financial stability.

Income Statement

Grocery Outlet Holding shows a modest revenue growth rate of 1.15% in the TTM, with a stable gross profit margin of 30.5%. However, the net profit margin is quite low at 0.38%, indicating challenges in converting revenue into profit. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have declined compared to previous years, suggesting increased operational costs or inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.48, indicating significant leverage, which could pose risks if not managed well. The return on equity has decreased to 1.42%, reflecting lower profitability on shareholders' investments. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting a balanced asset structure.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow has decreased significantly, with a negative growth rate of -30.19% in the TTM, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.42, showing some ability to generate cash from operations, but it has declined from previous periods.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.57B	4.37B	3.97B	3.58B	3.08B	3.13B
Gross Profit	1.38B	1.32B	1.24B	1.09B	948.79M	973.35M
EBITDA	151.20M	192.35M	214.97M	173.09M	165.44M	166.96M
Net Income	-4.44M	39.47M	79.44M	65.05M	62.31M	106.71M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.37B	3.17B	2.97B	2.77B	2.67B	2.49B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	52.13M	62.83M	114.99M	102.73M	140.09M	105.33M
Total Debt	1.81B	1.66B	1.39B	1.41B	1.46B	1.38B
Total Liabilities	2.17B	1.98B	1.75B	1.66B	1.66B	1.56B
Stockholders Equity	1.20B	1.20B	1.22B	1.11B	1.01B	922.31M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-42.06M	-74.65M	111.46M	55.03M	42.20M	50.46M
Operating Cash Flow	203.79M	111.96M	303.45M	185.51M	165.59M	181.24M
Investing Cash Flow	-250.92M	-274.03M	-194.16M	-149.93M	-136.71M	-133.79M
Financing Cash Flow	30.61M	109.91M	-97.02M	-72.94M	5.88M	29.77M

Grocery Outlet Holding Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 11.23
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.23 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.52, below the 50-day MA of 13.84, and below the 200-day MA of 14.48, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.93 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 37.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GO.

Grocery Outlet Holding Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
IMKTA	72 Outperform	$1.40B	17.06	5.29%	0.86%	-5.42%	-20.80%
ACI	68 Neutral	$10.07B	10.84	32.04%	3.31%	2.08%	-1.63%
VLGEA	67 Neutral	$460.86M	9.09	11.60%	2.89%	3.76%	12.17%
WMK	67 Neutral	$1.63B	17.33	7.22%	2.07%	3.11%	6.54%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
NGVC	58 Neutral	$631.93M	13.77	24.02%	1.85%	7.19%	35.90%
GO	45 Neutral	$1.10B	―	-0.37%	―	7.22%	-108.99%

Grocery Outlet Holding Corporate Events

Grocery Outlet’s Earnings Call: Growth Amid Challenges

The recent earnings call for Grocery Outlet Holding presented a mixed sentiment. While the company celebrated strategic advancements such as net sales growth and the success of its store refresh program, concerns were raised about underperformance in comparable store sales, the impact of SNAP benefits, and a decline in adjusted earnings. The introduction of new leadership was seen as a potential positive step towards addressing these operational challenges.

Grocery Outlet Reports Q3 2025 Earnings with Strategic Initiatives

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp., a high-growth retailer known for offering quality, name-brand consumables and fresh products at extreme value, operates over 560 independently operated stores across the United States. In its third quarter fiscal 2025 earnings report, Grocery Outlet reported a 5.4% increase in net sales to $1.17 billion, although net income declined to $11.6 million from $24.2 million the previous year. The company highlighted the launch of its store refresh program as a strategic initiative aimed at improving store layouts and expanding product assortments.

Grocery Outlet Appoints New Chief Store Operations Officer

On August 26, 2025, Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. announced the appointment of Frank Kerr as Executive Vice President, Chief Store Operations Officer, effective September 15, 2025. Frank Kerr, with extensive experience in grocery retail, previously held leadership roles at Lidl US and Save A Lot, where he contributed to significant market share gains and operational improvements. His appointment is expected to enhance Grocery Outlet’s store operations and support its mission of providing exceptional value to customers, while driving sustainable growth and profitability.

The most recent analyst rating on (GO) stock is a Hold with a $19.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Grocery Outlet Holding stock, see the GO Stock Forecast page.

Grocery Outlet’s Earnings Call: Optimism Amid Challenges

Grocery Outlet Holding’s recent earnings call painted a picture of cautious optimism. The company reported strong financial performance that exceeded expectations, alongside strategic initiatives that are making headway and positive consumer feedback. However, this optimism was tempered by challenges such as ongoing systems implementation issues and a notable decrease in net income, which balanced the overall sentiment.

Grocery Outlet Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp., a prominent retailer in the extreme value sector, specializes in offering quality, name-brand consumables and fresh products through a network of independently operated stores across the United States.