Ingles Markets (IMKTA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.61B
• Dividend Yield: 0.93%
• Average Volume (3M): 103.27K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.31
• Revenue Growth: -5.42%
• EPS Growth: -20.80%
• Country: US
• Employees: 11,072
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Grocery Stores
• EPS (TTM): 1.48
• Shares Outstanding: 14,548,686
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 126,929
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 103,272
• PEG Ratio: -0.75
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.81
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.24
• P/FCF Ratio: 32.96
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.13
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.34
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.39
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.82
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $89.00 ▲(15.15% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/06/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/06/26

The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance—improving leverage but weaker profitability and uncertain cash-flow quality. Technicals are supportive due to a strong uptrend, though overbought indicators add near-term risk. Valuation is fair with a modest P/E but a low dividend yield, while the latest corporate update was a positive incremental catalyst.

Positive Factors

Diversified Grocery Model

Ingles operates supermarkets with grocery, pharmacy and fuel sales plus private-label and loyalty programs, creating multiple steady revenue streams. This diversification supports customer retention, improves basket economics and cushions margins against single-category shocks over the medium term.

Improving Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Debt metrics have improved from higher levels in 2021–2023 and equity has expanded, while recent reporting shows declining total debt and minimal credit-line usage. Better leverage and liquidity increase financial flexibility for capex, store investments and weathering regional shocks.

Recent Operational Recovery

The fiscal Q1 improvement — stronger sales, higher gross margin and materially higher net income with modestly lower capex — suggests operational execution and margin recovery. If sustained, this trend can rebuild cash flow and support reinvestment across the store base.

Negative Factors

Weakened Free Cash Flow

Free cash flow has declined for multiple years and conversion of earnings to cash is inconsistent, increasing uncertainty about sustainable internal funding. Weak FCF constrains ability to fund capex, debt paydown, dividends or pursue strategic investments without external financing.

Compressed Profitability

Operating and net margins have fallen from earlier peaks and returns on equity have sharply declined to mid-single digits. Persistent margin compression undermines cash generation and returns, limiting capacity to absorb cost inflation or invest in differentiation long term.

Stagnant Revenue Trend

Revenues have been roughly flat with a slight recent decline, indicating limited top-line momentum. Structural revenue stagnation reduces operating-leverage benefits, constrains margin expansion and makes sustainable earnings growth dependent on margin recovery or share gains.

Ingles Markets Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ingles Markets, Incorporated (IMKTA) is a regional grocery store chain based in the southeastern United States, primarily serving customers in North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, and Virginia. The company operates a network of supermarkets that offer a wide range of products including fresh produce, meat, dairy, bakery items, and grocery essentials. In addition to its retail operations, Ingles Markets also provides pharmacy services and fuel centers, enhancing its value proposition to customers and fostering loyalty in the communities it serves.

How the Company Makes Money

Ingles Markets generates revenue primarily through the sale of grocery products in its supermarkets, which includes both perishable and non-perishable items. The company's revenue model is driven by a combination of in-store sales and online grocery orders, catering to changing consumer preferences. Key revenue streams include groceries, pharmacy sales, and fuel sales from its gas stations. Additionally, Ingles benefits from private label products, which typically have higher margins compared to national brands. The company may also engage in partnerships with local suppliers and farms, promoting regional products and enhancing its market appeal. Seasonal promotions and loyalty programs further contribute to customer retention and increased sales, effectively bolstering the company’s earnings.

Ingles Markets Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are mixed: the balance sheet is improving with more manageable leverage, but operating and net margins have compressed meaningfully versus 2021–2023. Cash flow is the main concern due to multi-year free cash flow weakness and less consistent conversion versus earnings.

Income Statement

Revenue has been roughly flat over the last few years, with the latest annual period showing a slight decline and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) returning to modest growth. Profitability, however, has compressed meaningfully versus 2021–2023: operating and net margins have stepped down to much lower levels in the latest annual period and remain subdued in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Strengths are still-positive earnings and a stable gross margin profile, but the key weakness is the clear downshift in operating leverage and bottom-line profitability versus prior-cycle peaks.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable with debt-to-equity improving from higher levels in 2021–2023 to a lower level in the latest annual period, suggesting balance sheet risk has moderated. Equity has also grown over time, supporting financial flexibility. The main offset is that returns on equity have declined sharply from very strong levels earlier in the period to mid-single digits more recently, indicating weaker overall profitability even as leverage improves.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has weakened: the latest annual period shows lower free cash flow versus prior years and negative free cash flow growth for multiple consecutive years. Cash flow quality versus earnings is also softer recently, with free cash flow representing a smaller share of net income than in 2021–2023. TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) shows a very large jump in free cash flow growth, but coverage and conversion ratios in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) appear unusually low versus the income statement, making the cash-flow picture less consistent and increasing uncertainty around sustainability.

Breakdown	TTM	Sep 2025	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.42B	5.33B	5.64B	5.89B	5.68B	4.99B
Gross Profit	1.31B	1.27B	1.30B	1.40B	1.42B	1.30B
EBITDA	267.08M	252.54M	282.98M	416.55M	500.58M	469.05M
Net Income	95.13M	83.59M	105.54M	210.81M	272.76M	249.73M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.57B	2.57B	2.53B	2.47B	2.30B	2.02B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	361.68M	366.25M	353.69M	328.54M	267.20M	75.31M
Total Debt	539.03M	543.67M	564.96M	595.47M	612.50M	632.04M
Total Liabilities	930.27M	950.12M	982.13M	1.01B	1.04B	1.04B
Stockholders Equity	1.64B	1.62B	1.55B	1.46B	1.26B	983.26M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	123.07M	39.60M	51.66M	92.82M	219.89M	165.70M
Operating Cash Flow	236.15M	154.10M	262.52M	266.41M	339.50M	306.30M
Investing Cash Flow	-112.37M	-109.94M	-206.18M	-170.10M	-111.99M	-127.98M
Financing Cash Flow	-31.61M	-31.60M	-31.18M	-34.97M	-30.62M	-114.90M

Ingles Markets Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 77.29
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IMKTA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 77.29 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 85.72, above the 50-day MA of 76.78, and above the 200-day MA of 69.88, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.88 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 61.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.07 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for IMKTA.

Ingles Markets Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VLGEA	70 Outperform	$520.30M	10.21	11.22%	2.63%	3.88%	7.71%
NGVC	69 Neutral	$618.21M	13.15	23.81%	1.99%	7.19%	35.90%
WMK	67 Neutral	$1.65B	17.86	7.22%	2.06%	3.11%	6.54%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
ACI	61 Neutral	$9.10B	11.53	29.65%	3.49%	2.08%	-1.63%
IMKTA	60 Neutral	$1.61B	16.89	5.29%	0.93%	-5.42%	-20.80%
GO	52 Neutral	$907.77M	-194.33	-0.37%	―	7.22%	-108.99%

Ingles Markets Corporate Events

Ingles Markets Posts Strong Fiscal 2026 First-Quarter Results

On February 5, 2026, Ingles Markets reported strong results for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, covering the period ended December 27, 2025, with net sales rising 6.6% year-on-year to $1.37 billion and gross profit improving to 24.4% of sales from 23.4% a year earlier. Operating and administrative expenses increased to $295.4 million, but lower interest expense and stronger operating performance lifted net income to $28.1 million from $16.6 million in the prior-year quarter, with Class A basic earnings per share climbing to $1.51 from $0.89 and Class B basic earnings per share rising to $1.38 from $0.81. Capital expenditures were modestly lower at $36.4 million, total debt declined to $511.5 million from $529.4 million, and the company ended the quarter with minimal usage of its $150 million credit line, underscoring a solid liquidity position even as it continues to invest in its store base and recover from hurricane-related closures.

The most recent analyst rating on (IMKTA) stock is a Hold with a $71.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ingles Markets stock, see the IMKTA Stock Forecast page.

Ingles Markets Reports Q4 2025 Financial Results

Ingles Markets reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended September 27, 2025. The company saw a decrease in net sales for both the quarter and the fiscal year compared to the previous year, with $1.37 billion for the quarter and $5.33 billion for the year. Despite the decline in sales, the company improved its gross profit margins and achieved a net income of $25.7 million for the quarter, recovering from a net loss in the same quarter of the previous year due to impairment losses from Hurricane Helene. For the fiscal year, net income was $83.6 million, down from $105.5 million the prior year. Ingles Markets continues to focus on enhancing customer experience and managing its financial resources effectively.

The most recent analyst rating on (IMKTA) stock is a Hold with a $78.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ingles Markets stock, see the IMKTA Stock Forecast page.

Ingles Markets Appoints New Board Member

On November 21, 2025, Ingles Markets, a North Carolina-based company, announced the resignation of John R. Lowden from its Board of Directors, effective immediately. L. Keith Collins, who has extensive experience in dairy operations and management, was appointed to fill the vacancy. Mr. Collins, previously President of Milkco, Inc., a subsidiary of Ingles Markets, will serve on the Board until the 2026 annual meeting of shareholders. His appointment is expected to bring valuable industry expertise to the Board, with no conflicts of interest reported.

The most recent analyst rating on (IMKTA) stock is a Hold with a $78.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ingles Markets stock, see the IMKTA Stock Forecast page.