Dollar General (DG)
NYSE:DG
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Dollar General
(NYSE:DG)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$128.00
▲(6.89% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/24/26
The score is primarily driven by mixed fundamentals: strong sales and improved cash flow are offset by materially lower margins and still-high leverage. Technicals are a meaningful drag given the downtrend, despite oversold readings. Valuation and the earnings call outlook are modest positives, supported by guidance for continued growth and margin expansion but tempered by near-term headwinds and no 2026 buybacks.
Positive Factors
Top-line growth and market share gains
Sustained unit and dollar share gains across consumables and nonconsumables indicate structural demand for DG’s value proposition in rural/suburban markets. Consistent comp growth supports durable cash flow, higher store productivity, and a stable base for margin recovery and reinvestment over the next 2–4 years.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Material leverage, even after improvement, constrains capital allocation and raises sensitivity to weaker cash flow or higher interest costs. High leverage limits management flexibility on buybacks and opportunistic investments, increasing risk if margin recovery or FCF momentum slows over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Top-line growth and market share gains
Sustained unit and dollar share gains across consumables and nonconsumables indicate structural demand for DG’s value proposition in rural/suburban markets. Consistent comp growth supports durable cash flow, higher store productivity, and a stable base for margin recovery and reinvestment over the next 2–4 years.
Read all positive factors
Dollar General (DG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$26.37B
Dividend Yield1.88%
Average Volume (3M)3.43M
Price to Earnings (P/E)20.9
Beta (1Y)0.02
Revenue Growth4.86%
EPS Growth-4.51%
CountryUS
Employees194,200
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryDiscount Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.93
Shares Outstanding220,226,320
10 Day Avg. Volume2,908,462
30 Day Avg. Volume3,432,719
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.61
Price to Book (P/B)3.71
Price to Sales (P/S)0.74
P/FCF Ratio13.19
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.52
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.94
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.06
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.33
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$148.31Price Target Upside23.85% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering18
EPS Forecast (FY)7.29
Revenue Forecast (FY)$44.43B
Dollar General Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Dollar General Corporation, a discount retailer, provides various merchandise products in the southern, southwestern, Midwestern, and eastern United States. It offers consumable products, including paper and cleaning products, such as paper towels...
How the Company Makes Money
Dollar General makes money primarily by selling merchandise through its retail stores (and associated sales channels where applicable). Its core revenue stream is product sales, with consumables (everyday essentials such as food, household supplie...
Dollar General Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue across different business segments, highlighting which areas drive growth and profitability.
Breaks down revenue across different business segments, highlighting which areas drive growth and profitability.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyDollar General Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple strong operational and financial achievements in 2025 — robust sales growth, margin expansion driven by significant shrink reduction, improved inventory and strong cash flow — along with momentum in digital, delivery and media initiatives. Management provided reasonable 2026 guidance that factors in modest margin expansion but also flags headwinds including weather disruption, LIFO/tax impacts, modest SG&A deleverage, and macro uncertainties. Overall the positives (sales, margin expansion, cash generation, digital/delivery traction, store and remodel plans) materially outweigh the identified near-term challenges.Positive Updates
Top-Line Growth and Market Share Gains
Net sales increased 5.9% to $10.9 billion in Q4 (vs. $10.3B prior-year); same-store sales rose 4.3% for the quarter. Company reported market share gains in both dollars and units for highly consumable and nonconsumable products.
Negative Updates
Near-Term Weather Impact to Q1 and Operational Disruption
Severe winter storms and temporary store closures in early February negatively impacted start-of-year results; management expects Q1 comps in the low 2% range reflecting this disruption.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Top-Line Growth and Market Share Gains
Net sales increased 5.9% to $10.9 billion in Q4 (vs. $10.3B prior-year); same-store sales rose 4.3% for the quarter. Company reported market share gains in both dollars and units for highly consumable and nonconsumable products.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Dollar General’s FY2026 guidance calls for net sales growth of 3.7%–4.2% with same‑store sales up 2.2%–2.7% (Q1 comps expected in the low‑2% range after a negative February storm impact), EPS of $7.10–$7.35 (assumes an ~25% effective tax rate and includes a ~150‑bp headwind from the Work Opportunity Tax Credit expiration, or about a $0.13 EPS reduction), and capital spending of $1.4–$1.5 billion; the Board approved a $0.59 quarterly dividend for Q1 2026, the outlook does not assume share repurchases in 2026 (repurchases expected to resume in 2027), and management expects another year of gross‑margin expansion (albeit much smaller than 2025) with modest SG&A deleverage. Over the next 3–4 years they expect shrink + damages to drive roughly 50 bps of incremental gross margin and at least 120 bps total gross‑margin improvement (including ~50 bps from DG Media Network) as they pursue a 6%–7% operating‑margin target while maintaining a goal of <3x adjusted debt to adjusted EBITDAR.Dollar General Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
46
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 42.72B | 40.61B | 38.69B | 37.84B | 34.22B |
| Gross Profit | 13.10B | 12.02B | 11.72B | 11.82B | 10.81B |
| EBITDA | 3.25B | 2.69B | 3.30B | 4.05B | 3.86B |
| Net Income | 1.51B | 1.13B | 1.66B | 2.42B | 2.40B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 30.96B | 31.13B | 30.80B | 29.08B | 26.33B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.14B | 932.58M | 537.28M | 381.58M | 344.83M |
| Total Debt | 15.72B | 17.46B | 18.09B | 17.66B | 14.25B |
| Total Liabilities | 22.45B | 23.72B | 24.05B | 23.54B | 20.07B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.51B | 7.41B | 6.75B | 5.54B | 6.26B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.39B | 1.69B | 691.58M | 423.97M | 1.80B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.63B | 3.00B | 2.39B | 1.98B | 2.87B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.24B | -1.31B | -1.69B | -1.56B | -1.07B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.19B | -1.29B | -542.07M | -392.46M | -2.83B |
Dollar General Technical Analysis
Negative
119.75
Price Trends
138.14
Negative
133.43
Negative
119.59
Positive
Market Momentum
-5.42
Negative
38.08
Neutral
61.27
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 119.75 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 122.98, below the 50-day MA of 138.14, and above the 200-day MA of 119.59, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -5.42 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 38.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DG.
Dollar General Risk Analysis
Dollar General disclosed 23 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Dollar General reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Dollar General Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $12.44B | 29.49 | 18.14% | ― | 15.78% | 14.99% | |
70 Outperform | $5.63B | 28.12 | 13.30% | ― | 12.58% | 7.80% | |
67 Neutral | $56.17B | 8.81 | 26.06% | 4.79% | -2.16% | -12.66% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
56 Neutral | $20.24B | 18.87 | 34.83% | ― | -39.27% | -182.36% | |
55 Neutral | $26.37B | 20.87 | 18.66% | 1.88% | 4.86% | -4.51% | |
55 Neutral | $43.09B | 40.33 | 13.04% | 2.15% | -1.77% | -70.83% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
DG
Dollar General
119.75
31.24
35.29%
DLTR
Dollar Tree
102.60
28.89
39.19%
KR
Kroger Company
70.35
2.65
3.92%
TGT
Target
124.03
33.53
37.05%
FIVE
Five Below
225.19
161.63
254.30%
OLLI
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding
92.39
-23.27
-20.12%
Dollar General Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Dollar General Announces CEO Succession and Leadership Transition
Positive
Mar 24, 2026
Dollar General’s board on March 20, 2026 approved the hiring of grocery retail veteran Jerry W. “JJ” Fleeman, Jr. as chief executive officer, with his appointment and board membership expected to become effective January 1, 2027,...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Dollar General Announces Quarterly Dividend and Affirms Outlook
Positive
Mar 12, 2026
Dollar General announced that on March 11, 2026, its board of directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.59 per share on its outstanding common stock, payable on or before April 21, 2026, to shareholders of record as of April 7, 2026. The ...
Executive/Board Changes
Dollar General appoints David Rowland as new chairman
Neutral
Feb 3, 2026
On January 28, 2026, Dollar General announced that longtime director Warren F. Bryant will retire from its board at the end of his current term, concluding with the company’s 2026 annual meeting of shareholders, with the company noting that ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.