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Dollar General (DG)
NYSE:DG

Dollar General (DG) AI Stock Analysis

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DG

Dollar General

(NYSE:DG)

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Outperform 73 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$138.00
▼(-4.17% Downside)
Dollar General's stock score is driven by strong earnings performance and positive technical indicators. While financial performance shows consistent growth, challenges with profitability margins and high leverage are notable risks. The stock's valuation is fair, and recent corporate events support a positive outlook.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective sales strategies, supporting long-term business expansion.
Digital and Delivery Expansion
Expanding digital and delivery services enhances customer convenience and market reach, driving future sales growth.
Leadership Changes
Strategic leadership appointments can drive operational improvements and support the company's growth and efficiency goals.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage can limit financial flexibility and increase risk, potentially impacting long-term financial stability.
Profitability Margin Decline
Decreasing profitability margins may pressure earnings and indicate challenges in cost management or pricing power.
Consumer Spending Pressure
Increased consumer spending pressure can lead to smaller basket sizes, potentially affecting sales and profitability.

Dollar General (DG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Dollar General Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionDollar General Corporation, a discount retailer, provides various merchandise products in the southern, southwestern, Midwestern, and eastern United States. It offers consumable products, including paper and cleaning products, such as paper towels, bath tissues, paper dinnerware, trash and storage bags, disinfectants, and laundry products; packaged food comprising cereals, pasta, canned soups, fruits and vegetables, condiments, spices, sugar, and flour; and perishables that include milk, eggs, bread, refrigerated and frozen food, beer, and wine. The company's consumable products also comprise snacks, such as candies, cookies, crackers, salty snacks, and carbonated beverages; health and beauty products, including over-the-counter medicines and personal care products, such as soaps, body washes, shampoos, cosmetics, and dental hygiene and foot care products; pet supplies and pet food; and tobacco products. In addition, it offers seasonal products comprising holiday items, toys, batteries, small electronics, greeting cards, stationery, prepaid phones and accessories, gardening supplies, hardware, and automotive and home office supplies; and home products that include kitchen supplies, cookware, small appliances, light bulbs, storage containers, frames, candles, craft supplies and kitchen, and bed and bath soft goods. Further, the company provides apparel, which comprise casual everyday apparel for infants, toddlers, girls, boys, women, and men, as well as socks, underwear, disposable diapers, shoes, and accessories. As of February 25, 2022, it operated 18,190 stores in 47 states in the United States. The company was formerly known as J.L. Turner & Son, Inc. and changed its name to Dollar General Corporation in 1968. Dollar General Corporation was founded in 1939 and is based in Goodlettsville, Tennessee.
How the Company Makes MoneyDollar General generates revenue primarily through the sale of a diverse array of products at its retail locations. The company's core revenue streams include the sale of consumables (such as food, cleaning supplies, and personal care items), seasonal products, and home goods. By maintaining a low-cost business model that focuses on efficiency and a limited assortment of products, Dollar General achieves high inventory turnover. The company also benefits from its private-label brands, which typically yield higher margins compared to national brands. Additionally, Dollar General's strategic partnerships with suppliers and manufacturers enable it to negotiate favorable pricing, further enhancing profitability. The company's growth strategy includes expanding its store footprint, optimizing supply chain operations, and leveraging digital initiatives, all contributing to its overall revenue growth.

Dollar General Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Store Count
Store Count
Indicates the total number of stores in operation, providing insight into the company's market reach and expansion strategy.
Chart InsightsDollar General's store expansion has plateaued in 2025, with minimal growth compared to previous years. This stabilization comes amid robust financial performance, as highlighted in the latest earnings call, with notable increases in net sales and profit margins. The company is focusing on digital initiatives and delivery partnerships to drive future growth, balancing the slower store expansion. However, potential consumer spending pressures and increased SG&A expenses could impact profitability, making the strategic shift towards digital and delivery services crucial for sustaining growth.
Data provided by:The Fly

Dollar General Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Dec 04, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call showed strong financial performance with significant sales, profit, and customer traffic growth. The company successfully expanded its digital and delivery services, contributing to larger basket sizes and repeat customers. However, challenges such as increased SG&A expenses and consumer spending pressure were noted. Overall, the positive highlights significantly outweigh the lowlights, demonstrating the company's solid position in the market.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Sales Growth and Market Share Increase
Net sales increased 4.6% to $10.6 billion in Q3 2025 compared to $10.2 billion in Q3 2024. Dollar General grew market share in both consumable and non-consumable product sales.
Same-Store Sales and Customer Traffic
Same-store sales increased 2.5% during the quarter, driven by customer traffic. Notably, there was growth in higher-income households.
Gross Profit Improvement
Gross profit as a percentage of sales increased by 107 basis points to 29.9%, primarily due to higher inventory markups and lower shrink.
EPS Increase
Earnings per share for the quarter increased 43.8% to $1.28, exceeding internal expectations.
Cash Flow and Debt Reduction
Significant cash flow from operations of $2.8 billion was generated year-to-date through Q3, representing an increase of 28%. The company redeemed $600 million of senior notes during the quarter.
Digital and Delivery Expansion
Partnerships with DoorDash and Uber Eats expanded delivery options to over 17,000 stores, contributing to larger basket sizes and high repeat visit rates.
Real Estate and Remodel Initiatives
The company opened 196 new stores in Q3 and completed 651 Project Elevate remodels, which showed an average first-year sales comp lift of approximately 3%.
Negative Updates
Shrink and SG&A Challenges
While shrink improved, SG&A as a percentage of sales increased by 25 basis points due to higher incentive compensation and other expenses.
Market Environment and Consumer Pressure
The core customer feels more pressured on spending, leading to smaller basket sizes despite increased traffic.
Company Guidance
During the Dollar General Corporation Q3 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided several key metrics and guidance for fiscal 2025. Dollar General reported a 4.6% increase in net sales, reaching $10.6 billion, with same-store sales rising by 2.5%, driven by increased customer traffic, though the average basket size remained flat. The company achieved a gross profit margin of 29.9%, reflecting a 107 basis point increase, attributed to higher inventory markups and reduced shrinkage. Operating profit surged by 31.5% to $425.9 million, and diluted EPS rose 43.8% to $1.28. For fiscal 2025, Dollar General expects net sales growth of 4.7% to 4.9%, same-store sales growth of 2.5% to 2.7%, and EPS between $6.30 and $6.50. Capital spending is projected to be at the lower end of $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion, with plans for 4,885 real estate projects, including 575 new store openings in the U.S. and up to 15 in Mexico.

Dollar General Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Dollar General demonstrates consistent revenue growth and strong cash flow generation, but faces challenges with declining profitability margins and high leverage. The company effectively utilizes equity to generate returns, yet relies heavily on debt financing. While the financial position is stable, there are areas for improvement in profitability and leverage management.
Income Statement
Dollar General's revenue growth has been consistent, with a notable increase in the TTM period. However, the company has experienced a decline in profitability margins, such as EBIT and EBITDA margins, compared to previous years. The gross profit margin remains stable, indicating efficient cost management. Overall, the income statement reflects moderate growth with some pressure on profitability.
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risks. However, the return on equity remains healthy, reflecting effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is relatively low, suggesting a higher reliance on debt financing. Overall, the balance sheet highlights a leveraged position with strong equity returns.
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals strong free cash flow growth in the TTM period, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is stable, suggesting efficient cash conversion. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is moderate, indicating room for improvement in cash flow efficiency. Overall, the cash flow statement reflects solid cash generation with potential for enhanced efficiency.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue42.12B40.61B38.69B37.84B34.22B33.75B
Gross Profit12.81B12.02B11.72B11.82B10.81B10.72B
EBITDA2.92B2.69B3.30B4.05B3.86B4.13B
Net Income1.28B1.13B1.66B2.42B2.40B2.66B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets31.72B31.13B30.80B29.08B26.33B25.86B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.24B932.58M537.28M381.58M344.83M1.38B
Total Debt16.51B17.46B18.09B17.66B14.25B13.59B
Total Liabilities23.53B23.72B24.05B23.54B20.07B19.20B
Stockholders Equity8.19B7.41B6.75B5.54B6.26B6.66B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow2.34B1.69B691.58M423.97M1.80B2.85B
Operating Cash Flow3.62B3.00B2.39B1.98B2.87B3.88B
Investing Cash Flow-1.28B-1.31B-1.69B-1.56B-1.07B-1.02B
Financing Cash Flow-1.64B-1.29B-542.07M-392.46M-2.83B-1.71B

Dollar General Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price144.00
Price Trends
50DMA
117.74
Positive
100DMA
111.11
Positive
200DMA
106.16
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
6.67
Positive
RSI
71.85
Negative
STOCH
84.41
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 144 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 135.98, above the 50-day MA of 117.74, and above the 200-day MA of 106.16, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 6.67 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 71.85 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.41 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DG.

Dollar General Risk Analysis

Dollar General disclosed 23 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Dollar General reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Dollar General Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$11.07B35.5517.27%15.78%14.99%
73
Outperform
$6.94B31.1212.96%12.58%7.80%
73
Outperform
$31.59B24.8616.45%1.88%4.86%-4.51%
70
Neutral
$47.23B12.6625.09%4.79%-2.16%-12.66%
62
Neutral
$20.33B14.63-3.31%3.23%1.93%-12.26%
61
Neutral
$26.16B20.07%-39.27%-182.36%
56
Neutral
$37.52B54.767.75%2.15%-1.77%-70.83%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
DG
Dollar General
144.00
73.93
105.49%
DLTR
Dollar Tree
131.61
58.71
80.53%
KR
Kroger Company
59.79
1.85
3.19%
TGT
Target
106.33
-29.31
-21.61%
FIVE
Five Below
198.01
94.81
91.87%
OLLI
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding
112.54
6.18
5.81%

Dollar General Corporate Events

Dividends
Dollar General Declares Quarterly Dividend of $0.59
Positive
Dec 4, 2025

On December 2, 2025, Dollar General‘s Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.59 per share, payable on or before January 20, 2026, to shareholders of record on January 6, 2026. This announcement reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to returning value to its shareholders and may influence investor sentiment and stock performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (DG) stock is a Hold with a $105.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dollar General stock, see the DG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Dollar General Appoints Emily C. Taylor as COO
Positive
Nov 13, 2025

On November 12, 2025, Dollar General Corporation announced the appointment of Emily C. Taylor as Chief Operating Officer, effective November 16, 2025. Taylor, who has been with the company since 1998, will oversee store operations, global supply chain, merchandising, marketing, and more. Her promotion is accompanied by a salary increase and additional incentives. The company also announced other leadership changes, including the promotion of Bryan Wheeler to Executive Vice President and Chief Merchandising Officer, and the elevation of Pooh Vichidvongsa and Shareeka Meadows to senior vice president roles. These changes are part of Dollar General’s strategic growth and leadership development efforts.

The most recent analyst rating on (DG) stock is a Hold with a $112.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dollar General stock, see the DG Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 09, 2025