tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Dollar General (DG)
NYSE:DG

Dollar General (DG) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
4,655 Followers

Top Page

DG

Dollar General

(NYSE:DG)

Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$122.00
▲(7.51%Upside)
Dollar General's robust earnings performance and technical strength are major positives, driving the stock score. However, concerns about valuation and financial leverage partially offset these strengths. The company's strategic expansions and strong market position provide confidence, but attention to cost management and debt is crucial.
Positive Factors
Earnings Beat
DG delivered an encouraging Q1 beat; momentum inflected after a long run of weakness.
Market Share Gains
Dollar General is gaining market share from traditional grocery and drug stores, indicating competitive strength.
Strategic Initiatives
Dollar General's Back to Basics initiatives, including SKU rationalization and inventory reduction, are working effectively, driving efficiencies.
Negative Factors
Competitive Pressure
There are concerns about Dollar General's ability to compete with Walmart in delivering value and convenience long-term.
Financial Headwinds
The expected increase in incentive compensation is seen as a financial headwind for the company.
Growth Challenges
Management indicated momentum has remained consistent into Q2, yet FY guidance now implies decelerating comp growth against easier compares.

Dollar General (DG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Dollar General Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionDollar General Corporation, a discount retailer, provides various merchandise products in the southern, southwestern, Midwestern, and eastern United States. It offers consumable products, including paper and cleaning products, such as paper towels, bath tissues, paper dinnerware, trash and storage bags, disinfectants, and laundry products; packaged food comprising cereals, pasta, canned soups, fruits and vegetables, condiments, spices, sugar, and flour; and perishables that include milk, eggs, bread, refrigerated and frozen food, beer, and wine. The company's consumable products also comprise snacks, such as candies, cookies, crackers, salty snacks, and carbonated beverages; health and beauty products, including over-the-counter medicines and personal care products, such as soaps, body washes, shampoos, cosmetics, and dental hygiene and foot care products; pet supplies and pet food; and tobacco products. In addition, it offers seasonal products comprising holiday items, toys, batteries, small electronics, greeting cards, stationery, prepaid phones and accessories, gardening supplies, hardware, and automotive and home office supplies; and home products that include kitchen supplies, cookware, small appliances, light bulbs, storage containers, frames, candles, craft supplies and kitchen, and bed and bath soft goods. Further, the company provides apparel, which comprise casual everyday apparel for infants, toddlers, girls, boys, women, and men, as well as socks, underwear, disposable diapers, shoes, and accessories. As of February 25, 2022, it operated 18,190 stores in 47 states in the United States. The company was formerly known as J.L. Turner & Son, Inc. and changed its name to Dollar General Corporation in 1968. Dollar General Corporation was founded in 1939 and is based in Goodlettsville, Tennessee.
How the Company Makes MoneyDollar General generates revenue primarily through the sale of general merchandise and consumables at its retail locations. The company's revenue model is largely based on high-volume sales of low-cost goods, which include categories such as food, cleaning supplies, paper products, health and beauty aids, pet supplies, and basic apparel. A significant contributor to Dollar General's earnings is its expansive network of over 17,000 stores, strategically located to maximize accessibility for underserved communities. The company also benefits from efficient supply chain management and strategic partnerships with suppliers, enabling it to maintain competitive pricing and attractive product margins. Additionally, Dollar General has been expanding its private label offerings, which tend to have higher profit margins compared to national brands, further enhancing its profitability.

Dollar General Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Store Count
Store Count
Indicates the total number of stores in operation, reflecting the company's expansion strategy and market penetration. A growing store count can signal increased market presence and potential revenue growth.
Chart InsightsDollar General's aggressive store expansion strategy continues, with a notable increase in store count over recent years, reflecting its commitment to growth. The latest earnings call highlights the opening of 156 new stores in Q1 2025, contributing to a 5.3% rise in net sales. Despite challenges like increased SG&A expenses and tariff uncertainties, the company remains optimistic, focusing on enhancing store performance through Project Renovate and Project Elevate. This expansion is crucial for maintaining market share and driving future revenue growth, despite a slight decline in customer traffic.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Dollar General Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jun 04, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 0.81%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 28, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Dollar General reported a strong Q1 performance with sales and EPS exceeding expectations, driven by store openings and market share growth across product categories. However, challenges such as a slight decline in customer traffic and uncertainty related to tariffs and increased SG&A expenses were noted. The company remains optimistic about its ability to sustain growth and manage potential challenges.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Q1 Performance Exceeds Expectations
Net sales increased by 5.3% to $10.4 billion in Q1, surpassing expectations. Same-store sales rose by 2.4%, with growth in all product categories: consumables, seasonal, home, and apparel.
Record Expansion and Market Share Growth
Opened 156 new stores in Q1 and grew market share in both consumable and non-consumable product sales.
Improved Financial Position
EPS increased by 7.9% to $1.78, and merchandise inventories decreased by 5% year-over-year, improving financial health.
Successful Cost Management
Gross profit margin increased by 78 basis points due to lower shrink and higher inventory markups.
Trade-in Customer Growth
Highest percentage of trade-in customers in four years, with new customers making more trips and spending more.
Negative Updates
Slight Decline in Customer Traffic
Customer traffic decreased by 0.3% during the quarter, although it remained strong on a two-year stack basis.
Increased SG&A Expenses
SG&A expenses increased by 77 basis points, driven by higher retail labor, incentive compensation, and repairs and maintenance.
Potential Challenges with Tariffs
The evolving tariff environment poses uncertainty, with possible impacts on consumer spending, cost of goods, and the supply chain.
Headwinds from Incentive Compensation
Anticipated headwind of approximately $180 million to $200 million for the full year due to increased incentive compensation expenses.
Company Guidance
During Dollar General's earnings call for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, the company announced a net sales increase of 5.3% to $10.4 billion, driven by the opening of 156 new stores and a same-store sales growth of 2.4%. The company reported a gross profit margin increase of 78 basis points to 31%, primarily due to lower shrink and higher inventory markups. Operating profit rose by 5.5% to $576 million, while EPS increased by 7.9% to $1.78. Dollar General updated its financial outlook for 2025, projecting net sales growth of 3.7% to 4.7%, same-store sales growth of 1.5% to 2.5%, and EPS between $5.20 and $5.80. The guidance reflects consideration of tariff uncertainties and the company's successful mitigation strategies. The company also emphasized its continued investment in Project Renovate and Project Elevate remodels, aiming to enhance the shopping experience and drive mature store performance.

Dollar General Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Dollar General exhibits steady revenue growth and strong cash flow performance, which are positive indicators for long-term sustainability. However, declining profit margins and high leverage present potential risks, necessitating a focus on cost management and debt reduction.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Dollar General's income statement shows moderate performance with a gross profit margin of approximately 29.6% and a net profit margin of 2.8% for the latest year. The revenue growth rate from 2024 to 2025 is about 5%, indicating steady growth, though margins have slightly decreased due to rising costs impacting profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also contracted, reflecting operational challenges.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet indicates a relatively high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.36, suggesting significant leverage, which poses financial risk. However, the equity ratio is 23.8%, showing that a reasonable portion of assets is financed by equity. Return on equity has decreased over recent years to 15.2%, reflecting reduced profitability relative to equity.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
The cash flow statement reveals robust operating cash flow relative to net income, with an operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.66. Free cash flow grew substantially by 143.9% from the previous year, indicating strong cash generation capability and efficient capital expenditure management.
Breakdown
Mar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income StatementTotal Revenue
40.61B38.69B37.84B34.22B33.75B
Gross Profit
12.02B11.72B11.82B10.81B10.72B
EBIT
1.71B2.45B3.33B3.22B3.55B
EBITDA
2.69B3.30B4.05B3.86B4.13B
Net Income Common Stockholders
1.13B1.66B2.42B2.40B2.66B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
932.58M537.28M381.58M344.83M1.38B
Total Assets
31.13B30.80B29.08B26.33B25.86B
Total Debt
17.46B18.09B17.66B14.25B13.59B
Net Debt
16.53B17.55B17.28B13.90B12.21B
Total Liabilities
23.72B24.05B23.54B20.07B19.20B
Stockholders Equity
7.41B6.75B5.54B6.26B6.66B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
1.69B691.58M423.97M1.80B2.85B
Operating Cash Flow
3.00B2.39B1.98B2.87B3.88B
Investing Cash Flow
-1.31B-1.69B-1.56B-1.07B-1.02B
Financing Cash Flow
-1.29B-542.07M-392.46M-2.83B-1.71B

Dollar General Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price113.48
Price Trends
50DMA
94.46
Positive
100DMA
84.89
Positive
200DMA
83.39
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
5.08
Negative
RSI
74.21
Negative
STOCH
89.60
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 113.48 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 99.37, above the 50-day MA of 94.46, and above the 200-day MA of 83.39, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 5.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.21 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.60 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DG.

Dollar General Risk Analysis

Dollar General disclosed 22 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Dollar General reported the most risks in the “Production” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Dollar General Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$7.32B36.7112.32%8.70%2.54%
BJBJ
74
Outperform
$14.67B25.8332.76%2.84%11.25%
WMWMT
73
Outperform
$779.85B41.7722.80%0.91%4.22%-0.17%
DGDG
69
Neutral
$24.97B21.6415.69%2.08%4.77%-23.73%
TGTGT
66
Neutral
$44.22B10.7029.08%4.60%-0.69%2.03%
62
Neutral
$6.88B11.322.95%3.87%2.70%-24.57%
61
Neutral
$19.72B19.25%-20.46%-202.26%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
DG
Dollar General
113.48
-11.76
-9.39%
DLTR
Dollar Tree
94.50
-15.69
-14.24%
TGT
Target
97.32
-46.11
-32.15%
WMT
Walmart
97.47
31.19
47.06%
OLLI
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding
119.37
34.76
41.08%
BJ
Bj's Wholesale Club Holdings
111.11
21.90
24.55%

Dollar General Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsDividends
Dollar General Holds Annual Shareholders Meeting
Neutral
Jun 3, 2025

Dollar General held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders on May 29, 2025, where several directors were elected to serve until the next annual meeting in 2026. The meeting also saw the approval of the compensation for the company’s named executive officers and the ratification of Ernst & Young LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for fiscal year 2025. However, several shareholder proposals, including those related to human rights policy, food waste transparency, and employee healthcare, were not approved. Additionally, the Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.59 per share, payable on July 22, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (DG) stock is a Buy with a $170.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dollar General stock, see the DG Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingDividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Dollar General Amends Credit Agreement for Flexibility
Neutral
Mar 13, 2025

On March 11, 2025, Dollar General Corporation amended its unsecured credit agreement, originally dated September 3, 2024, to adjust financial covenants and restrictions during a Covenant Relief Period lasting until January 30, 2026. The amendment impacts the company’s leverage and fixed charge coverage ratios, limits stock repurchases, and reduces the ability to incur additional debt, reflecting a strategic financial maneuver to maintain operational flexibility. Additionally, the company announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.59 per share, payable on April 22, 2025, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.