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Telenor ASA (TELNY)
OTHER OTC:TELNY
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Telenor ASA
(OTC:TELNY)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$20.50
â–²(42.16% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:02/18/26
The score is driven primarily by strong and improving cash generation and a significantly stronger-looking balance sheet, supported by constructive guidance and capital returns from the latest earnings call. Offsetting factors include multi-year revenue decline and earnings volatility, a valuation that is not especially cheap for the growth profile, and technically overextended momentum signals that raise near-term pullback risk.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistently high operating cash flow (~31.2B) and recovered free cash flow (~19.3B) provide durable internal funding for dividends, buybacks, capex and debt reduction. Steady cash conversion reduces execution risk on strategy and supports financial flexibility over the next 2–6 months.
Material deleveraging / stronger balance sheet
A sharp reduction in reported debt materially de-risks the capital structure, lowering interest exposure and improving headroom for investments or M&A. This stronger balance sheet increases resilience to operational swings and supports capital returns and strategic optionality in the medium term.
Nordic operational strength
Nordic markets are delivering durable revenue and margin expansion driven by ARPU uplift, subscriber gains and disciplined OpEx/CapEx. A high-margin, core Nordic franchise stabilizes group earnings and cash flow generation, providing a reliable earnings base while other regions are addressed.
Negative Factors
Multi-year revenue decline
Sustained top-line contraction over several years reduces operating leverage and may limit long-term EBITDA growth. Persistent revenue decline forces reliance on cost savings, asset sales and one-offs to sustain returns, increasing execution risk for durable organic growth recovery.
Asia (Bangladesh) currency & demand headwinds
Significant FX depreciation and weak consumer demand in Bangladesh compress reported revenues and margins, increasing reported volatility and reducing diversification benefits from Asia. Persistent currency and demand pressures can materially depress group cash flow and complicate forecasting.
Rising churn and price competition in Nordics
Intensifying competition and rising churn hinder ARPU and customer retention, forcing higher marketing and promotional spend. Structural competitive moves (MVNOs, deep discounts) can erode margins and slow sustainable service revenue growth despite operational improvements.
Telenor ASA (TELNY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$25.35B
Dividend Yield5.27%
Average Volume (3M)5.07K
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.4
Beta (1Y)0.01
Revenue Growth1.54%
EPS Growth10.58%
CountryUS
Employees10,867
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryTelecommunications Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.23
Shares Outstanding1,368,350,000
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume5,072
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.43
Price to Book (P/B)2.82
Price to Sales (P/S)2.63
P/FCF Ratio10.45
Enterprise Value/Market Cap13.34
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.23
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.05
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.86
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.99
Revenue Forecast (FY)$7.98B
Telenor ASA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionTelenor ASA (TELNY) is a leading telecommunications company headquartered in Norway, operating in multiple markets across Scandinavia, Eastern Europe, and Asia. The company provides a wide range of services including mobile and fixed-line telecommunications, data services, and digital solutions. Telenor is known for its focus on innovation and customer experience, offering products such as mobile voice and broadband, internet of things (IoT) services, and digital financial services.
How the Company Makes MoneyTelenor ASA generates revenue primarily through its telecommunications services, which include voice, data, and broadband services for both individual and corporate customers. The company operates on a subscription-based model where customers pay monthly fees for mobile and broadband services. Additionally, Telenor earns revenue from value-added services such as digital content, IoT solutions, and mobile financial services such as e-wallets and payment processing. Key revenue streams include mobile services, which account for a significant portion of its earnings, and fixed-line services. Telenor also engages in strategic partnerships with technology providers and local businesses to enhance its service offerings and expand its market reach, contributing to its overall revenue growth.
Telenor ASA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 06, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a broadly positive performance: Telenor delivered on 2025 guidance with strong adjusted EBITDA growth, material free cash flow, improved ROCE and deleveraging, a proposed dividend increase and a significant NOK 15 billion buyback funded by proceeds from the True sale. Nordic operations were the main driver, showing healthy top-line and margin progress, while the Amp/IoT portfolio and the True transaction added clear value. Key challenges remain in Asia (Bangladesh currency and demand weakness), some accounting/timing effects that boosted reported EBITDA, competitive pressure and rising churn in Finland and other Nordic market promotional dynamics, near-term transformation and implementation costs, and risks to tower revenues from competitor infrastructure deals. On balance, the positive operational and capital allocation outcomes outweigh the identifiable headwinds, though management remains cautious on Bangladesh and expects variability in 2026 results.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Delivered on 2025 Outlook and Strong Operational Execution
Telenor confirmed it delivered on all parameters of its 2025 outlook, closing the year with strong operational momentum across the Nordics and Asia and disciplined execution, including clean exits from Pakistan and Allente and the announced sale of True.
Quarterly and Full-Year Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Adjusted EBITDA increased 11.7% year-on-year in Q4 to NOK 8.6 billion (reported), with management stating an adjusted underlying EBITDA growth of ~8.5% after removing accounting timing effects (~3.2 percentage points). Full-year group EBITDA growth was 5.8% (excluding Pakistan), outperforming the 5–6% outlook.
Revenue and EPS Improvements
Group service revenues reached NOK 15.3 billion in Q4, up 2.6% year-on-year. Adjusted EPS in Q4 was NOK 2.21, representing an 89% increase for the quarter and a 24% increase for the full year.
Strong Free Cash Flow and Capital Returns
Free cash flow before M&A for the full year was NOK 12.9 billion (in line with ~NOK 13 billion guidance). Q4 free cash flow before M&A was NOK 4.1 billion, up 33% year-on-year. Company proposes a dividend of NOK 9.7 per share (16th consecutive increase) and a NOK 15 billion buyback program funded by True transaction proceeds.
Balance Sheet Metrics and Leverage Improvement
Leverage closed the year at 2.2x, returning to the target range (1.8–2.3), helped by positive free cash flow and deconsolidation of Pakistan net debt (NOK 1.8 billion). ROCE for the last 12 months improved to 9.2% (up 1 percentage point); excluding associates ROCE was 13.6%.
Nordics: Top-Line and Margin Strength
Nordics delivered 2.8% organic service revenue growth in the quarter and 8.7% EBITDA growth. Mobile service revenues grew ~4% driven by ARPU uplift; Norway mobile ARPU +5% and fixed broadband ARPU +6%. Sweden posted strong mobile net adds (45,000) and a Sweden EBITDA margin of ~40% (LTM milestone).
Amp and IoT Portfolio Progress
Amp delivered a strong quarter with KNL contributing materially on revenues and EBITDA (defense comms contracts) and Connexion delivering 9% organic revenue growth and 24% YoY growth in global SIM base, supporting continued NAV uplift in the Amp portfolio.
Value Creation from True Transaction
The announced sale of True represents significant value creation: management noted exiting Thailand at more than 3x the NOK 12 billion market value attributed earlier in the dtac/True context. First tranche proceeds planned to allocate NOK 15 billion to buybacks, NOK 11.5 billion to repay a EUR 1 billion bond, and NOK 6 billion to fund the GlobalConnect Norwegian consumer fiber acquisition.
Operational Efficiency and CapEx Discipline
Group CapEx to sales ratio was 15.5% in Q4 (4 percentage points lower YoY). Nordics CapEx-to-sales was 17.2% in the quarter and 14.3% for the full year. Management highlighted relentless cost focus and transformation programs that reduced OpEx (OpEx declined close to 2% in Q4; adjusted flat when excluding certain items).
Negative Updates
Asia Revenue and Currency Headwinds (Bangladesh)
Grameenphone delivered 3.4% organic service revenue growth in Q4 but NOK-reported amounts fell due to a 14% weakening of the Bangladeshi taka; underlying revenues and EBITDA were broadly flat year-on-year amid cautious consumer spending and tough price competition. Management retains modest near-term expectations for Bangladesh.
EBITDA Timing/Accounting Effects
Reported group EBITDA growth of 11.7% included ~3.2 percentage points of uplift from accounting adjustments, reversals and timing of internal cost allocations (notably between Asia HQ and Other), meaning underlying EBITDA growth was lower (~8.5%).
Special Items and One-Off Charges
Q4 included several notable negative swing factors: a NOK 3.0 billion loss on the discontinued line, a NOK 0.4 billion tax expense related to the divestment of Telenor Pakistan, and a NOK 0.5 billion fluctuation in net financial items due to fair value changes relating to True. Other income/expenses rose due to IT equipment scrapping and workforce reductions.
Competitive Pressures and Rising Churn in Nordic Markets
Management reported rising churn across Nordic markets and significantly sharpened price competition in Finland (new MVNO activity and deep promotional discounts). Norway and Finland saw postpaid outflows (about 24,000 postpaid subscribers left in Norway and Finland during the quarter amid promotional seasonality).
OpEx and Transformation Cost Pressures
OpEx in Norway increased 3.4% YoY due to higher activity for robustification, transformation and Storm Amy reparations. Management noted 2026 will be near-peak in implementation costs for transformation programs (e.g., BSS project in Denmark), implying continued near-term OpEx pressure.
Asia EBITDA Contraction and Associated Company Risks
EBITDA in Asia contracted year-on-year (partly timing-related), and some associated companies face challenges: DNB (associated 5G company) was described as financially distressed, and CelcomDigi had a prior EBITDA decline (higher data costs and bad debt) despite recent top-line improvements.
Tower Revenue Exposure from Competitor RAN JV
Management estimates a potential negative impact of NOK 120–160 million (about 4–5% of tower external revenue) on tower revenues from the Telia/Ice RAN consolidation in Norway, with effects not expected before 2027 at the earliest.
Free Cash Flow Outlook Lower Than 2025 Level
Management forecasts free cash flow before M&A (excl. dividends from associates and incremental spectrum) of NOK 10–11 billion for 2026, below the NOK 12.9 billion achieved in 2025 (before M&A), reflecting a more conservative near-term cash expectation.
Company Guidance
Guidance: For 2026 Telenor expects low single‑digit Nordic service revenue growth and mid‑single‑digit Nordic EBITDA growth, with Nordic CapEx-to-sales (ex leases) around 14% and significant quarter-to-quarter variability (tough Q2 comparables); group adjusted EBITDA is guided to low‑to‑mid single‑digit growth and group free cash flow before M&A (excluding dividends from associates and incremental spectrum) is expected at NOK 10–11 billion (back‑end loaded). Management notes ~NOK 550 million of national roaming wholesale revenue in 2025 that they expect to be roughly similar in 2026 but to fade by 2027, a leverage target range of 1.8–2.3x (year-end 2025 was 2.2x), and reiterated ROCE LTM of 9.2% (13.6% excl. associates). Recent FY25 and Q4 reference metrics include FY25 FCF before M&A NOK 12.9bn (including M&A NOK 17.3bn), Q4 FCF before M&A NOK 4.1bn, Q4 group service revenues NOK 15.3bn (+2.6% YoY), Q4 adjusted EBITDA NOK 8.6bn (+11.7%), Q4 adjusted EPS NOK 2.21, Q4 group CapEx/sales 15.5% (Nordics 17.2% Q4 / 14.3% FY). Capital allocation guidance: proposed ordinary dividend NOK 9.7/share, a NOK 15bn buyback (to be executed over three years and confirmed annually), and allocation of the first NOK 32bn True proceeds to NOK 15bn buyback, NOK 11.5bn to repay a EUR 1bn bond and NOK 6bn for the GlobalConnect Norway consumer fiber acquisition (with a remaining NOK 7bn from the second tranche to be decided later).Telenor ASA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Cash flow is a clear strength (2025 operating cash flow ~31.2B and free cash flow ~19.3B, improving YoY), and the balance sheet looks materially de-risked with sharply lower reported debt in 2025 alongside strong equity. Offsetting these positives, revenue has declined for multiple years and net income was notably volatile, with a sharp drop in 2025 versus 2024.Income Statement
Revenue has trended down over the last several years (2020 to 2025 annual revenue declined from ~122.8B to ~76.5B, with 2025 down ~4.9% year over year). Profitability is still solid for the industry, supported by strong gross profit (2025 gross profit ~59.3B), but earnings are volatile: net income fell sharply in 2025 (~8.2B) versus the unusually strong 2024 result (~18.3B). Overall, the business remains profitable, but the top-line contraction and earnings swings temper the score.62
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage appears to be improving materially: total debt fell from ~101.6B (2024) to ~27.7B (2025), while equity remains high (~71.6B in 2025), implying a much stronger capital structure than prior years. Historically, the company carried meaningful leverage (debt-to-equity around ~1.3–2.0 in 2022–2024, and higher earlier), but the latest year suggests significant de-risking. The main watch item is the large year-over-year debt change, which can reflect restructuring, reclassification, or major balance sheet actions and warrants monitoring for sustainability.74
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is strong and relatively steady: operating cash flow was ~31.2B in 2025 (similar to 2024’s ~31.5B), and free cash flow improved to ~19.3B in 2025 (up ~5.5% year over year). While free cash flow declined in 2022–2023, it has recovered in 2024–2025, supporting dividends, debt reduction, and reinvestment capacity. The key weakness is that earnings have been more volatile than cash flow (notably in 2025), so investors should continue to focus on cash conversion consistency.78
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 76.55B | 79.93B | 80.45B | 98.95B | 110.24B |
| Gross Profit | 59.30B | 62.20B | 61.40B | 72.55B | 81.06B |
| EBITDA | 37.23B | 46.23B | 22.89B | 39.39B | 39.45B |
| Net Income | 8.19B | 18.34B | 13.73B | 13.65B | 11.34B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 221.59B | 229.58B | 218.38B | 239.25B | 225.74B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 17.16B | 10.77B | 20.86B | 10.26B | 15.60B |
| Total Debt | 27.67B | 101.62B | 102.19B | 118.52B | 131.40B |
| Total Liabilities | 144.83B | 147.04B | 147.95B | 174.88B | 194.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | 71.61B | 76.62B | 64.48B | 60.13B | 26.29B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 19.29B | 18.10B | 14.39B | 19.92B | 22.82B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 31.22B | 31.48B | 29.12B | 39.22B | 42.27B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -9.84B | -11.49B | -18.30B | -23.14B | -17.23B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -15.20B | -29.39B | -1.53B | -23.98B | -27.90B |
Telenor ASA Technical Analysis
Positive
14.42
Price Trends
15.99
Positive
15.53
Positive
15.56
Positive
Market Momentum
0.67
Positive
70.90
Negative
33.54
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TELNY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.42 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.88, below the 50-day MA of 15.99, and below the 200-day MA of 15.56, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.67 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 70.90 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TELNY.
Telenor ASA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $20.83B | 15.76 | 15.54% | 6.14% | -5.21% | -7.45% | |
70 Outperform | $25.35B | 23.36 | 15.01% | 5.27% | 1.54% | 10.58% | |
70 Outperform | $27.06B | 24.69 | 9.34% | 5.03% | -3.16% | 4.70% | |
61 Neutral | $11.69B | 44.07 | 3.10% | 5.02% | -8.16% | -52.52% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
60 Neutral | $35.64B | -8.39 | -7.08% | 3.77% | 19.67% | -278.51% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
TELNY
Telenor ASA
18.53
5.95
47.24%
TLK
PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk
21.27
7.41
53.46%
SKM
Sk Telecom
30.34
8.67
40.01%
VIV
Telefonica Brasil
16.91
8.84
109.62%
VOD
Vodafone
15.36
6.85
80.43%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.