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Tidewater Inc. (TDW)
NYSE:TDW

Tidewater (TDW) AI Stock Analysis

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TDW

Tidewater

(NYSE:TDW)

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Outperform 73 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$89.00
▲(11.43% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/03/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (strong profitability and cash flow with better leverage metrics) and supportive technical momentum. These positives are partially offset by a relatively high P/E valuation and operational volatility/cyclical risks highlighted by uneven growth and higher expected 2026 cost headwinds.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Consistent and materially improved free cash flow provides durable internal funding for maintenance, debt paydown, buybacks or opportunistic investments. Strong FCF reduces financing risk in this cyclical industry and underpins ability to endure multi-quarter demand softness without immediate capital raises.
Improved leverage and liquidity
Lower leverage and a strengthened equity base increase financial flexibility to pursue M&A, withstand offshore demand cycles, and manage working capital swings. A stronger balance sheet reduces refinancing risk and supports management's target of sub-1x net debt/EBITDA after planned deals.
Strategic Brazil acquisition expands market position
The WSUT deal materially deepens Tidewater's presence in Brazil, securing REB tonnage rights and a large backlog under long-duration contracts. This scale advantage in a structurally attractive market improves pricing leverage and long-term growth optionality versus peers with smaller local footprints.
Negative Factors
Revenue volatility and cyclicality
Large swings in reported revenue highlight sensitivity to utilization and day rates across regions. Such cyclicality reduces revenue predictability, complicates fleet planning and capital allocation, and can compress margins in downturns despite periodic margin outperformance.
One-time accounting benefit inflates net income
A substantial non-recurring tax benefit materially lifts reported net income, obscuring underlying operating profitability. Relying on such items can mislead assessments of sustainable earnings power and cash conversion, so investors must focus on adjusted metrics and recurring cash flows.
Near-term dry-dock, CapEx and G&A pressure
Elevated planned dry-dock and maintenance capex materially reduce available vessel days and raise recurring cash needs. Combined with higher G&A for integration and transaction costs, this will pressure free cash flow and utilization metrics in the next 2-4 quarters, limiting margin expansion.

Tidewater (TDW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Tidewater Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTidewater Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides offshore marine support and transportation services to the offshore energy industry through the operation of a fleet of marine service vessels worldwide. It provides services in support of offshore oil and natural gas exploration, field development, and production, as well as windfarm development and maintenance, including towing of and anchor handling for mobile offshore drilling units; transporting supplies and personnel necessary to sustain drilling, workover, and production activities; offshore construction, and seismic and subsea support; geotechnical survey support for windfarm construction; and various specialized services, such as pipe and cable laying. The company operates and charters deepwater vessels, including platform supply and horsepower anchor handling tug supply vessels for use in transporting supplies and equipment from shore bases to deepwater and intermediate water depth offshore drilling rigs and production platforms; towing-supply vessels for use in intermediate and shallow waters; and crew boats, utility vessels, and offshore tugs to transport personnel and supplies from shore bases to offshore drilling rigs, platforms, and other installations. It also operates offshore tugs for use in tow floating drilling rigs and barges; and assisting in the docking of tankers, as well as in pipe and cable laying, and construction barges. The company serves oil and natural gas exploration, field development, and production companies; mid-sized and smaller independent exploration and production companies; foreign government-owned or government-controlled organizations, and other related companies; drilling contractors; and other companies, such as offshore construction, windfarm development, diving, and well stimulation companies. As of December 31, 2021, it owned 135 vessels. Tidewater Inc. was incorporated in 1956 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyTidewater generates revenue through several key streams, primarily from the chartering of its fleet to oil and gas companies for offshore support operations. This includes day rates charged for vessel usage, which can vary based on the type of vessel, the duration of the contract, and market demand. Additional revenue is derived from specialized services such as crew management, maintenance, and logistical support, which are often bundled with vessel charters. Tidewater also engages in long-term contracts with major energy companies, providing a stable income stream. Strategic partnerships with industry players enhance its market presence and may lead to additional revenue opportunities through collaborative projects. The company's earnings can also be influenced by the overall health of the oil and gas industry, global oil prices, and technological advancements that improve operational efficiency.

Tidewater Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Mar 02, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
Next Earnings Date:May 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveys a generally positive operating and financial performance in 2025 (strong adjusted EBITDA, meaningful free cash flow, margin expansion, strong Q4 utilization and cash collections). Management is deploying capital into an accretive $500M acquisition while keeping leverage targets conservative and raising 2026 guidance inclusive of the deal. Offsets include essentially flat revenue YoY, reliance on a one-time tax benefit for a large portion of reported net income growth, regional softness (notably Americas and parts of APAC), and expected higher dry-dock and CapEx in 2026. Geopolitical risk in the Middle East is being monitored but was not an immediate drag at the time of the call. Overall, the positive operational execution, balance sheet flexibility, and strategic M&A/guide lift outweigh the headwinds mentioned.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow
Adjusted EBITDA of $598.1M in 2025, up from $559.6M in 2024 (+$38.5M, +6.9%). Free cash flow of $426.0M in 2025, an increase of $95.0M versus 2024 (management emphasized robust cash generation and Q4 working capital collections).
Revenue and Gross Margin Resilience
Full-year revenue of $1.35B (essentially flat YoY; +$7M vs 2024). Full-year gross margin of $665.8M and gross margin rate of ~49.2%, ~1 percentage point improvement year-over-year, reflecting higher day rates and lower operating costs.
Average Day Rate Improvement (YoY)
Average day rates improved by $1,300 for the year to $22,573 (approx +6.1% vs prior-year implied rate), supporting higher margins despite slightly lower utilization for the year.
Quarterly Operational Momentum (Q4)
Q4 revenue of $336.8M with gross margin near 49%; active utilization rose to 81.7% in Q4 from 78.5% in Q3 (up ~3.2 percentage points). Q4 adjusted EBITDA improved to $143.1M from $137.9M in Q3 (+3.8%) and Q4 free cash flow was $101.2M (up ~27% vs Q3).
Balance Sheet Strength and Cash Position
Ended 2025 with nearly $580M of cash on the balance sheet and a pro forma plan to maintain a healthy leverage profile (targeting net debt/EBITDA below 1x post-Wilson’s acquisition).
Strategic M&A — Wilson Sons Offshore Ultratug Acquisition
Announced acquisition of Wilson Sons Offshore Ultratug for $500M (all-cash) plus assumption of ~$261M debt (weighted average cost 3.6%, amortization to 2035). Management expects pro forma net leverage below 1x assuming a 06/30/2026 close and views transaction as accretive to returns.
Raised 2026 Financial Outlook (Including Wilson’s)
Updated full-year 2026 guidance to revenue $1.43B–$1.48B and gross margin 49%–51%, reflecting the acquisition and implying continued margin strength; legacy firm backlog + options and Jan revenue represent ~ $1.1B (~80% of midpoint) and ~65% of available days captured.
Operational Execution and Fleet Reliability
Management highlighted improved vessel uptime, lower dry-dock/repair downtime in 2025 (Q4 had the lowest quarterly dry-dock spend of the year) and continued focus on maintenance and operational excellence, contributing to stronger utilization and margins in several regions.
Negative Updates
Revenue Essentially Flat Year-over-Year
Full-year revenue increased by only ~$7M to $1.35B (effectively flat versus 2024), indicating limited top-line growth despite margin and cash flow improvements.
Net Income Lift Driven by One-Time Tax Benefit
Net income rose to $334.7M from $180.7M (+~85%), but this includes a one-time, non-cash tax benefit of $201.5M from a strategic vessel ownership realignment; underlying profitability improvement is materially smaller without that benefit.
Regional and Segment Weakness — Americas & APAC
Americas saw an 8 percentage point decline in gross margin QoQ (driven by ~9 percentage point drop in utilization and higher operating costs). APAC experienced an ~11% decrease in average day rates QoQ in the quarter (partly due to three fewer vessels in Australia). Gulf of Mexico outlook described as flat at best for 2026.
Q4 vs Q3 Day Rate Softness
Consolidated leading-edge day rates were down slightly in Q4 vs Q3, with reported average day rates about 3% lower in Q4 vs Q3, highlighting short-term seasonality/pressure on pricing in some regions.
Rising Near-Term CapEx and Dry-Dock Costs
2026 dry-dock costs expected at ~$122M (including ~$46M engine overhauls) vs $98.6M in 2025; 2026 capital expenditures guidance ~$51M (vs $25.8M in 2025), both of which will pressure cash flow in the near term and affect utilization (dry-dock days expected to affect utilization by ~5 percentage points).
Higher G&A and One-Time M&A Costs
Full-year G&A rose to $134.5M in 2025 (+$23.7M YoY), driven by professional fees and personnel costs including ~$8.3M of transaction-related costs; standalone 2026 Tidewater G&A guidance (exclusive of additional M&A costs) is ~$123M, but the company expects incremental G&A related to the Wilson’s acquisition.
Geopolitical Uncertainty in Middle East
Operation Epic Fury presents ongoing operational uncertainty in the Middle East (management noted potential increases in insurance and personnel costs and is monitoring the situation closely), although as of call they reported operations continuing and impacts described as immaterial so far.
Company Guidance
Tidewater updated 2026 guidance to reflect the Wilson’s Ultratug acquisition (assumed $500M purchase price with ~$261M of assumed debt at a 3.6% WAC and a target close of 6/30/2026) and now expects full‑year revenue of $1.43–$1.48 billion and gross margin of 49–51%; the legacy Tidewater fleet has ~$1.1 billion of firm backlog/options and January revenue (about 65% of available days captured, representing ~80% of the midpoint of legacy guidance), management is modeling ~80% utilization for 2026 (leaving ~11% spare capacity to charter), expects 2026 dry dock costs of ≈$122M (including ~$46M of engine overhauls) affecting utilization by ~5 percentage points, plans ~ $51M of 2026 CapEx (plus ~$36M optional CapEx, ~$24.4M for two exercised purchase options, and ~$1M of Wilson’s‑related CapEx), and forecasts Tidewater standalone G&A of ~$123M (including ~$15M non‑cash stock comp and ~ $7M incremental H2 Wilson’s costs); pro forma net leverage is expected to be below 1x net debt/EBITDA at close (company target ~1x, with the ability to return to net debt zero in ~six quarters), free cash flow is expected to remain healthy (historical/near‑term range ~$300–$311M annually) and the company retains a $500M share repurchase authorization (≈13% of shares outstanding).

Tidewater Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong turnaround with sharply higher profitability and cash generation (2025 EBITDA margin ~35.8% and free cash flow $353M). Balance sheet leverage metrics improved (debt-to-equity down to 0.48), but absolute debt remains meaningful and results show volatility risk (notably the steep 2025 revenue growth decline).
Income Statement
74
Positive
Profitability has improved sharply over time, moving from sizable losses in 2020–2022 to solid profits in 2023–2025, with net margin rising from 9.6% (2023) to 13.4% (2024) and 24.7% (2025). Earnings power also looks strong with a 35.8% EBITDA margin in 2025. The key offset is growth: revenue surged in 2022–2024, but 2025 shows a steep decline in revenue growth (-60.9%), indicating meaningful volatility and potential cyclicality in demand.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Leverage appears manageable with debt-to-equity improving to 0.48 in 2025 (down from 0.71 in 2023), while equity has grown materially versus earlier years. Returns on equity strengthened alongside the earnings recovery, reaching 24.5% in 2025. The main risk is that debt remains sizable in absolute terms (~$655M in 2025) and leverage rose notably from 2022 to 2023 before improving, suggesting the capital structure can still swing with industry conditions.
Cash Flow
79
Positive
Cash generation is strong and improving: operating cash flow rose from $105M (2023) to $274M (2024) and $379M (2025), while free cash flow climbed to $353M in 2025. Free cash flow closely tracks earnings (about 93% of net income in 2025), supporting earnings quality. A watch item is that cash flow coverage of net income was below 1.0 in 2024 (~0.83) before improving above 1.0 in 2025 (~1.20), highlighting some year-to-year variability.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.35B1.35B1.01B647.68M371.03M
Gross Profit0.00406.40M268.80M129.09M-7.56M
EBITDA483.79M458.62M316.18M98.40M-34.98M
Net Income334.66M180.66M97.19M-21.75M-128.97M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.39B2.07B2.06B1.30B1.10B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments578.76M324.92M274.44M164.19M149.04M
Total Debt654.89M637.10M734.44M169.04M167.88M
Total Liabilities1.03B963.72M1.03B431.67M394.01M
Stockholders Equity1.37B1.11B1.04B865.97M701.30M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow353.35M246.27M73.12M23.59M6.05M
Operating Cash Flow379.11M273.85M104.70M40.23M15.01M
Investing Cash Flow-7.48M-188.00K-610.27M-23.81M25.06M
Financing Cash Flow-135.96M-222.59M615.56M-2.72M-41.01M

Tidewater Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price79.87
Price Trends
50DMA
62.06
Positive
100DMA
57.60
Positive
200DMA
54.41
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
4.98
Negative
RSI
73.23
Negative
STOCH
78.49
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TDW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 79.87 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 71.72, above the 50-day MA of 62.06, and above the 200-day MA of 54.41, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.98 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.23 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.49 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TDW.

Tidewater Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
$3.57B10.2539.64%8.71%72.09%
75
Outperform
$6.41B6.6236.35%6.81%-61.94%
73
Outperform
$3.96B26.9313.43%4.42%-13.55%
73
Outperform
$1.99B39.114.60%-1.24%337.41%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
62
Neutral
$7.22B52.392.29%3.24%-1.43%-63.13%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TDW
Tidewater
79.87
37.58
88.86%
NOV
NOV
20.03
6.41
47.07%
OII
Oceaneering International
35.87
15.72
78.01%
XPRO
Expro Group Holdings
17.45
7.36
72.94%
VAL
Valaris
92.60
58.73
173.40%

Tidewater Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Tidewater Expands Brazilian Offshore Fleet with WSUT Acquisition
Positive
Feb 24, 2026

On February 22, 2026, Tidewater agreed to acquire all shares of Wilson Sons Ultratug Participações S.A. and Atlantic Offshore Services S.A. (WSUT) for an enterprise value of about $500 million, including the assumption of roughly $261 million of existing debt, in a deal unanimously approved by its board and expected to close in late second quarter 2026 subject to Brazilian antitrust and other customary approvals. The transaction adds 22 platform supply vessels to Tidewater’s fleet, boosts its Brazilian presence from six to 28 vessels, establishes it as a leading provider of Brazilian-built PSVs with valuable REB tonnage rights, brings $441 million of backlog and low-cost long-duration financing, and is projected to be immediately accretive to 2026–2027 earnings and free cash flow while keeping pro forma net leverage below 1.0x.

Tidewater’s acquisition of WSUT significantly scales its offshore support vessel footprint to 213 OSVs and 231 total vessels, deepening its exposure to what management calls one of the world’s most attractive offshore markets in Brazil. With 21 of WSUT’s 22 vessels already working in Brazil, a high proportion of Brazilian-built ships that receive commercial priority, and contracts currently priced below prevailing day rates, the deal positions Tidewater to capture future pricing upside, strengthen its balance sheet-driven competitive standing, and enhance long-term growth prospects in the Brazilian offshore energy sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TDW) stock is a Buy with a $61.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tidewater stock, see the TDW Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Mar 03, 2026