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NOV (NOV)
NYSE:NOV

NOV (NOV) AI Stock Analysis

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NOV

NOV

(NYSE:NOV)

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Outperform 72 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$19.50
â–²(10.23% Upside)
NOV's overall stock score reflects a stable financial position with positive technical indicators and reasonable valuation. The leadership transition and strategic focus on growth opportunities provide a positive outlook, despite challenges in revenue growth and cash flow generation.
Positive Factors
Leadership Transition
The leadership transition to Jose Bayardo, with his extensive experience, is expected to guide NOV into its next growth phase, ensuring operational efficiency and continuity.
International Expansion
Expanding demand in international markets like Argentina and Saudi Arabia positions NOV for growth, leveraging its global presence and diversified offerings.
Cost Control and Cash Flow
Strong project execution and cost control measures enhance NOV's cash flow generation, supporting financial stability and future investments.
Negative Factors
Revenue Decline
The significant decline in revenue growth poses a challenge to NOV's financial health, necessitating strategic actions to reverse the trend and sustain profitability.
Softening North American Market
The softening of the North American market affects product demand, potentially hindering NOV's revenue streams and requiring strategic market adjustments.
Challenges from Tariffs and Inflation
Rising tariff expenses and inflationary pressures threaten NOV's margins, requiring cost management strategies to mitigate these impacts on profitability.

NOV (NOV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

NOV Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNOV Inc. designs, constructs, manufactures, and sells systems, components, and products for oil and gas drilling and production, and industrial and renewable energy sectors worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Wellbore Technologies, Completion & Production Solutions, and Rig Technologies. It also provides solids control and waste management equipment and services; portable power generation products; drill and wired pipes; drilling optimization and automation services; tubular inspection, repair, and coating services; instrumentation; measuring and monitoring services; downhole and fishing tools; steerable technologies; and drill bits. The company offers equipment and technologies for hydraulic fracture stimulation, including downhole multistage fracturing tools, pressure pumping trucks, blenders, sanders, hydration and injection units, flowline, and manifolds; coiled tubing units, and wireline units and tools; connections and liner hangers; onshore production consists of composite pipe, surface transfer and progressive cavity pumps, and artificial lift systems; and offshore production, such as floating production systems and subsea production technologies, as well as manufactures industrial pumps and mixers. It also provides substructures, derricks, and masts; cranes; jacking systems; pipe lifting, racking, rotating, and assembly systems; mud pumps; pressure control equipment; drives and generators; rig instrumentation and control systems; mooring, anchor, and deck handling machinery; equipment components for offshore wind construction vessels; and pipelay and construction systems. NOV Inc. offers spare parts, repair, and rentals as well as comprehensive remote equipment monitoring, technical support, field service, and customer training. The company was formerly known as National Oilwell Varco, Inc. and changed its name to NOV Inc. in January 2021. NOV Inc. was founded in 1862 and is based in Houston, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyNOV generates revenue primarily through the sale of its equipment and services to the oil and gas sector. Key revenue streams include the manufacturing and leasing of drilling rigs, the provision of wellbore technologies such as drilling fluids and bits, and the sale of completion and production equipment. The company also engages in aftermarket services, providing maintenance and support for its products, which contributes to a steady revenue flow. Furthermore, NOV has formed strategic partnerships with various oil and gas companies, which helps to secure long-term contracts and projects, enhancing its revenue stability. The cyclical nature of the oil and gas industry can impact earnings, but NOV's diversified product offerings and global presence help mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations.

NOV Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 28, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a mixed outlook with strong financial performance and promising backlog and bookings contrasted by challenges in aftermarket revenues, softening North American market, and tariff impacts.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
NOV reported revenues of $2.18 billion and a net income of $42 million for the third quarter of 2025. EBITDA was $258 million or 11.9% of revenue, showing sequential improvement despite challenging conditions.
Robust Backlog and Bookings
Energy Equipment segment's backlog reached $4.56 billion, with capital equipment orders of $951 million, representing a book-to-bill ratio of 141% for the quarter.
Growth in Offshore Production Equipment
Capital equipment sales increased by 20% year-over-year in the Energy Equipment segment, driven by strong growth in offshore production equipment.
Cost Control and Cash Flow Generation
NOV achieved a 95% free cash flow conversion rate during the quarter, driven by strong project execution and cost control measures.
International Expansion Opportunities
Increasing demand for coiled tubing and wireline equipment in international markets, driven by unconventional resource development in regions like Argentina, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
Negative Updates
Decline in Aftermarket Revenues
Aftermarket sales in the Energy Equipment segment declined by 19% year-over-year, impacting overall segment performance.
Softening North American Market
North American market activity continued to soften, with E&Ps trimming short-cycle oil activity, impacting demand for certain products.
Challenges from Tariffs and Inflation
Tariff expenses increased to around $20 million, with expectations of $25 million for the fourth quarter, posing a headwind to margins.
Decreased Demand for Drilling Equipment
Revenue from drilling capital equipment decreased, reflecting ongoing caution among offshore drilling contractors regarding capital expenditures.
Company Guidance
In the NOV Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company reported revenues of $2.18 billion with a net income of $42 million, translating to $0.11 per fully diluted share. The adjusted EBITDA was $258 million, representing 11.9% of revenue, despite facing tariff and inflationary headwinds. The company highlighted strong project execution and cost control measures that led to an increase in free cash flow to $245 million. The Energy Equipment segment reported record revenues, primarily from subsea flexible pipe and gas-focused process systems, while the Energy Products and Services segment continued to outperform despite an 8% decline in the global rig count. NOV discussed strategic actions to counteract market softness, including a focus on unconventional shale development and deepwater offshore projects, which are expected to drive demand through the next decade. The company also emphasized operational efficiencies and structural improvements in working capital, projecting a free cash flow conversion rate of approximately 55% for 2025. Looking into 2026, NOV anticipates an increase in offshore drilling activity and a more favorable market environment as OPEC's production overhang clears, setting up a promising outlook for the company.

NOV Financial Statement Overview

Summary
NOV demonstrates a stable financial position with moderate leverage and consistent profitability margins. However, the recent decline in revenue growth and challenges in cash flow generation highlight areas for improvement. The company needs to focus on reversing the revenue decline and enhancing cash flow efficiency to strengthen its financial health further.
Income Statement
65
Positive
The company's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data indicates a decline in revenue growth rate by 17.1%, which is a concern. However, the company maintains a reasonable gross profit margin of 21.1% and a net profit margin of 5.4%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also stable at 7.9% and 11.9%, respectively. Despite the recent revenue decline, the company has shown resilience in maintaining profitability.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.36, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is 7.3%, which, while lower than previous years, still shows the company's ability to generate returns on shareholders' equity. The equity ratio stands at 57.4%, suggesting a solid equity base relative to total assets.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash flow analysis reveals some challenges, with a negative free cash flow growth rate of -3.52% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.57, indicating that operating cash flow adequately covers net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.71 suggests that the company needs to improve its cash generation relative to net income.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue8.77B8.87B8.57B7.23B5.53B6.07B
Gross Profit1.93B2.13B1.81B1.32B783.00M423.00M
EBITDA953.00M1.26B1.00B617.00M153.00M-2.34B
Net Income383.00M635.00M993.00M155.00M-250.00M-2.54B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets11.34B11.36B11.29B10.13B9.55B9.93B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.21B1.23B816.00M1.07B1.59B1.69B
Total Debt2.35B2.39B2.38B2.37B2.39B2.56B
Total Liabilities4.83B4.93B5.05B5.00B4.49B4.65B
Stockholders Equity6.46B6.38B6.17B5.10B5.00B5.21B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow877.00M953.00M-140.00M-393.00M90.00M700.00M
Operating Cash Flow1.27B1.30B143.00M-179.00M291.00M926.00M
Investing Cash Flow-429.00M-471.00M-293.00M-238.00M-196.00M-144.00M
Financing Cash Flow-622.00M-406.00M-103.00M-96.00M-189.00M-259.00M

NOV Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price17.69
Price Trends
50DMA
15.84
Positive
100DMA
14.53
Positive
200DMA
13.48
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.55
Negative
RSI
65.75
Neutral
STOCH
82.49
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NOV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 17.69 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.37, above the 50-day MA of 15.84, and above the 200-day MA of 13.48, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.55 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.49 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NOV.

NOV Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
$21.13B23.4228.72%0.44%11.73%45.70%
76
Outperform
$49.32B17.2116.83%2.04%1.51%30.09%
72
Outperform
$6.45B17.675.93%3.24%-1.43%-63.13%
71
Outperform
$27.81B21.8812.77%2.41%-4.06%-47.41%
70
Outperform
$70.17B18.1515.46%2.98%-2.13%-16.76%
70
Outperform
$6.22B15.6527.88%1.25%-10.19%-23.74%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NOV
NOV
17.69
3.15
21.66%
BKR
Baker Hughes Company
49.98
4.62
10.19%
FTI
TechnipFMC
52.24
19.87
61.38%
HAL
Halliburton
33.04
4.62
16.26%
SLB
Schlumberger
46.97
7.14
17.93%
WFRD
Weatherford International
86.70
17.65
25.56%

NOV Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
NOV Announces Leadership Transition with New CEO
Positive
Nov 20, 2025

On NOVember 19, 2025, NOV Inc. announced the retirement of its Chairman and CEO, Clay C. Williams, effective February 28, 2026, with Jose A. Bayardo set to succeed him as Chairman, President, and CEO starting January 1, 2026. This leadership transition is part of NOV’s long-term succession planning, with Bayardo’s extensive experience in upstream oilfield operations expected to guide the company into its next phase of growth, ensuring operational efficiency and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOV) stock is a Hold with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NOV stock, see the NOV Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
NOV Appoints Jose A. Bayardo to Board of Directors
Positive
Oct 28, 2025

On October 27, 2025, NOV Inc. announced the appointment of Jose A. Bayardo to its Board of Directors, expanding the board to ten members as part of its long-term succession plan. Bayardo, who has been with the company since 2015, will continue his role as President and COO without additional board compensation. NOV reported third-quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting revenues of $2.18 billion, a slight decrease from the previous year, and a net income of $42 million. Despite challenging market conditions, the company achieved strong free cash flow and maintained a robust book-to-bill ratio of 141%, driven by increased demand for offshore production equipment. NOV’s strategic focus on technology and operational efficiency positions it well for future growth, despite current industry challenges.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOV) stock is a Hold with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NOV stock, see the NOV Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 09, 2025