TAL Education (TAL)
NYSE:TAL
Top Page
TAL Education Group
(NYSE:TAL)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$12.50
▲(11.81% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:01/30/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (revenue growth, better profitability, strong balance sheet) and supportive technical uptrend. This is tempered by a premium valuation (high P/E, no dividend) and earnings-call risks around moderating growth visibility and ongoing losses in the investment-phase learning device segment.
Positive Factors
Revenue growth recovery
Sustained double‑digit top‑line growth reflects recovering demand and stronger product adoption across TAL’s digital and service offerings. Durable revenue momentum increases operating scale, funds reinvestment in product development and distribution, and underpins multi‑period margin improvement.
Negative Factors
Loss‑making learning device unit
The device business is structurally investment‑heavy and continues to generate operating losses, consuming capital and management bandwidth. Prolonged losses could erode consolidated margins and divert cash from faster‑return software/services initiatives unless clear breakeven paths emerge.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue growth recovery
Sustained double‑digit top‑line growth reflects recovering demand and stronger product adoption across TAL’s digital and service offerings. Durable revenue momentum increases operating scale, funds reinvestment in product development and distribution, and underpins multi‑period margin improvement.
Read all positive factors
TAL Education Group (TAL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.77B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.10M
Price to Earnings (P/E)3.9
Beta (1Y)0.56
Revenue Growth44.37%
EPS Growth146.96%
CountryUS
Employees15,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryEducation & Training Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.25
Shares Outstanding460,861,500
10 Day Avg. Volume1,687,826
30 Day Avg. Volume3,102,396
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.23
Price to Sales (P/S)0.39
P/FCF Ratio3.06
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.70
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.78
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.27
Enterprise Value/Ebitda66.08
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$16.57Price Target Upside48.21% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.77
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.68B
TAL Education Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
TAL Education Group provides K-12 after-school tutoring services in the People's Republic of China. The company offers tutoring services to K-12 students covering various academic subjects, including mathematics, physics, chemistry, biology, histo...
How the Company Makes Money
TAL primarily makes money by selling education products and services that are delivered through technology-enabled formats. Its revenue model centers on: (1) Fees from learning products and services: income generated when users pay for access to T...
TAL Education Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 29, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights a clear operational and financial improvement: strong revenue growth (+27% YoY), substantial gross profit expansion (+35% YoY) and a pronounced profitability turnaround (operating income positive vs loss a year ago), supported by robust cash generation and user engagement metrics. Offsetting this are ongoing investments and an adjusted operating loss in the learning device business, decelerating device growth and ASP pressure, and competitive and seasonal risks that could cause near-term variability. Overall, the positives around top-line growth, margin expansion, cash strength and product engagement substantially outweigh the challenges tied to the investment-stage device business and short-term uncertainty.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Net revenues of $770.2M (RMB5,480.4M) in 3Q FY2026, up 27% YoY in USD and 26.8% YoY in RMB.
Negative Updates
Learning Device Business Still Loss-Making and in Investment Phase
Learning device segment reported an adjusted operating loss as it remains in an investment phase; management stated breakeven timeline is uncertain and will require continued resource allocation.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue Growth
Net revenues of $770.2M (RMB5,480.4M) in 3Q FY2026, up 27% YoY in USD and 26.8% YoY in RMB.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that improving overall profitability is a priority while acknowledging limited short‑term visibility and potential variability, expecting year‑over‑year revenue growth to moderate in H2 FY2026 (due to a higher comparable base) and continued fluctuation in learning device revenue as that business remains in an investment phase (blended ASP < RMB4,000, adjusted operating loss). They will flexibly allocate resources, use agile channel management for new businesses, and prudently expand the Peiyou learning center network; Q3 metrics cited include net revenues of $770.2M (RMB5,480.4M, +27% YoY), non‑GAAP income from operations $104.0M, non‑GAAP net income attributable to TAL $141.4M, income from operations $93.1M (vs loss last year), gross profit $431.8M (+35% YoY) and gross margin 56.1% (vs 52.7%). Operational and engagement metrics highlighted: learning devices saw year‑over‑year volume growth, ~80% average weekly active rate, ~1 hour average daily use per active device, AI Thinky delivered hundreds of thousands of hours of guided learning, Xiao Si activated 1,000,000,000 times (as of Dec 2025). Expense and balance‑sheet metrics referenced: cost of revenues $338.4M (+18%), selling & marketing $220.1M (non‑GAAP S&M 28.3% of revenues, down from 36.7%), non‑GAAP G&A $110.7M (14.4% of revenues, down from 16.6%), share‑based comp $10.8M (−30.2%), cash & equivalents $2.1463B, short‑term investments $1.4711B, restricted cash $339.3M, deferred revenue $1.1628B, net cash provided by operations $526.7M, and a board‑authorized share repurchase program up to ~$500M (≈$27.7M spent to buy 844,856 shares to date).TAL Education Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
75
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
65
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Feb 2025 | Feb 2024 | Feb 2023 | Feb 2022 | Feb 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.66B | 2.25B | 1.49B | 1.02B | 4.40B | 4.51B |
| Gross Profit | 1.45B | 1.20B | 805.57M | 581.30M | 2.19B | 2.45B |
| EBITDA | 71.56M | 40.74M | -60.52M | -76.69M | 55.08M | -189.78M |
| Net Income | 171.42M | 84.67M | -3.57M | -135.12M | -1.14B | -116.35M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.45B | 5.50B | 4.93B | 4.72B | 5.08B | 12.11B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.25B | 3.62B | 3.30B | 3.17B | 2.71B | 5.94B |
| Total Debt | 373.33M | 333.35M | 239.22M | 157.72M | 242.09M | 4.15B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.02B | 1.74B | 1.29B | 903.44M | 1.08B | 6.91B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.44B | 3.77B | 3.66B | 3.84B | 4.03B | 5.20B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 441.40M | 285.66M | 184.88M | -102.97M | -1.19B | 708.99M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 441.40M | 397.92M | 306.17M | 7.36M | -939.18M | 954.73M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -492.70M | -847.03M | 95.07M | -301.63M | 1.37B | -2.64B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -542.36M | -13.17M | -233.09M | -66.18M | -2.77B | 4.79B |
TAL Education Group Technical Analysis
Positive
11.18
Price Trends
11.23
Negative
11.21
Negative
11.11
Positive
Market Momentum
0.03
Negative
50.79
Neutral
56.58
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TAL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.18 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.17, below the 50-day MA of 11.23, and above the 200-day MA of 11.11, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.58 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TAL.
TAL Education Group Risk Analysis
TAL Education Group disclosed 85 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TAL Education Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
TAL Education Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $9.36B | 45.98 | 10.04% | 1.03% | 7.22% | -2.84% | |
76 Outperform | $3.79B | 7.03 | 21.36% | ― | 17.25% | 30.15% | |
74 Outperform | $4.90B | 17.67 | 26.41% | ― | 2.01% | -13.82% | |
73 Outperform | $4.65B | 21.44 | 28.22% | ― | 7.05% | -2.63% | |
70 Outperform | $6.77B | 3.93 | 7.83% | ― | 44.37% | 146.96% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
TAL
TAL Education Group
11.18
1.40
14.31%
LOPE
Grand Canyon Education
171.30
8.93
5.50%
LRN
Stride
88.95
-35.50
-28.53%
EDU
New Oriental Education Tech
56.17
15.41
37.79%
LAUR
Laureate Education
34.30
15.96
87.02%
TAL Education Group Corporate Events
TAL Education Posts Strong Q3 2026 Profit Surge as Revenues Climb 27%
Jan 29, 2026
On January 29, 2026, TAL Education Group reported unaudited results for its third fiscal quarter ended November 30, 2025, showing a sharp rebound in profitability driven by strong top-line growth and tighter cost controls. Quarterly net revenues r...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.