TAL Education Group (TAL)
NYSE:TAL
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TAL Education Group
(NYSE:TAL)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$12.50
▼(-1.11% Downside)
Action:UpgradedDate:01/30/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (revenue growth, better profitability, strong balance sheet) and supportive technical uptrend. This is tempered by a premium valuation (high P/E, no dividend) and earnings-call risks around moderating growth visibility and ongoing losses in the investment-phase learning device segment.
Positive Factors
Revenue growth recovery
Sustained double‑digit top‑line growth reflects recovering demand and stronger product adoption across TAL’s digital and service offerings. Durable revenue momentum increases operating scale, funds reinvestment in product development and distribution, and underpins multi‑period margin improvement.
Negative Factors
Loss‑making learning device unit
The device business is structurally investment‑heavy and continues to generate operating losses, consuming capital and management bandwidth. Prolonged losses could erode consolidated margins and divert cash from faster‑return software/services initiatives unless clear breakeven paths emerge.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue growth recovery
Sustained double‑digit top‑line growth reflects recovering demand and stronger product adoption across TAL’s digital and service offerings. Durable revenue momentum increases operating scale, funds reinvestment in product development and distribution, and underpins multi‑period margin improvement.
Read all positive factors
TAL Education Group (TAL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.73B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.82M
Price to Earnings (P/E)3.8
Beta (1Y)0.57
Revenue Growth34.00%
EPS Growth578.17%
CountryUS
Employees15,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryEducation & Training Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.45
Shares Outstanding460,861,500
10 Day Avg. Volume3,134,170
30 Day Avg. Volume2,820,177
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.23
Price to Sales (P/S)0.39
P/FCF Ratio3.06
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.78
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.97
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.62
Enterprise Value/Ebitda73.20
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$16.57Price Target Upside31.07% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.81
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.71B
TAL Education Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
TAL Education Group provides K-12 after-school tutoring services in the People's Republic of China. The company offers tutoring services to K-12 students covering various academic subjects, including mathematics, physics, chemistry, biology, histo...
How the Company Makes Money
TAL primarily makes money by selling education products and services that are delivered through technology-enabled formats. Its revenue model centers on: (1) Fees from learning products and services: income generated when users pay for access to T...
TAL Education Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 23, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a predominantly positive operational and financial picture: strong revenue growth, a clear profitability turnaround (material non-GAAP and GAAP net income improvement), expanding gross profit and margin gains, improving operating efficiency (notably S&M as a percent of revenue), continued product innovation (new device launch, AI features, frequent OS upgrades), and a solid balance sheet with sizeable short-term investments and deferred revenue. Offsetting these positives are meaningful short-term cash outflows from operations, expected moderation of growth as the company scales, input-cost pressures in the device business, one-time nature of some other income, and a competitive device market. On balance, the highlights outweigh the lowlights given the sizable turnaround to profitability, margin improvement, and clear strategic progress.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Net revenues of $802.4 million (RMB 5.59 billion) in Q4, up 31.5% year-over-year in USD and 25.8% in RMB.
Negative Updates
Operating Cash Use
Net cash used in operating activities for the fourth quarter was $215.0 million, indicating a cash outflow from operations despite reported profitability.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth
Net revenues of $802.4 million (RMB 5.59 billion) in Q4, up 31.5% year-over-year in USD and 25.8% in RMB.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided fiscal 2027 around three priorities—quality growth (with learning services remaining the largest revenue contributor), an application‑first AI rollout, and disciplined execution—expecting year‑over‑year growth to moderate from 2026’s strong base (Q4 net revenues $802.4M / RMB5.59B, +31.5% YoY USD / +25.8% YoY RMB) while continuing to improve profitability (Q4 gross profit $427.2M; gross margin 53.2% vs 52.0% prior; Q4 non‑GAAP income from operations $82.2M; Q4 non‑GAAP net income attributable to TAL $254.5M). They expect Peiyou small‑class expansion to be measured (retention ~80%; five new cities in FY26, total coverage >40 cities) with revenue growth to “gradually taper” as the baseline grows; learning devices to shift to more moderate growth after year‑over‑year gains in Q4 while maintaining strong engagement (~80% weekly active users, ~1 hour average daily use) and rolling out the X5 Ultra; and continued efficiency gains (non‑GAAP S&M down to 27.2% of revenues from 35.1%, non‑GAAP G&A down to 15.8% from 17.4%), supported by a healthy balance sheet (cash $523M, short‑term investments $1.0B, restricted cash $260M, deferred revenue $882.2M), a $600M buyback authorization (101,371 shares repurchased for ~$3.3M YTD), and an expectation of ongoing margin expansion through operational leverage.TAL Education Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
75
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
65
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Feb 2025 | Feb 2024 | Feb 2023 | Feb 2022 | Feb 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.66B | 2.25B | 1.49B | 1.02B | 4.40B | 4.51B |
| Gross Profit | 1.45B | 1.20B | 805.57M | 581.30M | 2.19B | 2.45B |
| EBITDA | 71.56M | 40.74M | -60.52M | -76.69M | 55.08M | -189.78M |
| Net Income | 171.42M | 84.67M | -3.57M | -135.12M | -1.14B | -116.35M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.45B | 5.50B | 4.93B | 4.72B | 5.08B | 12.11B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.25B | 3.62B | 3.30B | 3.17B | 2.71B | 5.94B |
| Total Debt | 373.33M | 333.35M | 239.22M | 157.72M | 242.09M | 4.15B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.02B | 1.74B | 1.29B | 903.44M | 1.08B | 6.91B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.44B | 3.77B | 3.66B | 3.84B | 4.03B | 5.20B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 441.40M | 285.66M | 184.88M | -102.97M | -1.19B | 708.99M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 441.40M | 397.92M | 306.17M | 7.36M | -939.18M | 954.73M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -492.70M | -847.03M | 95.07M | -301.63M | 1.37B | -2.64B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -542.36M | -13.17M | -233.09M | -66.18M | -2.77B | 4.79B |
TAL Education Group Technical Analysis
Positive
12.64
Price Trends
11.22
Positive
11.25
Positive
11.15
Positive
Market Momentum
0.26
Negative
70.04
Negative
88.22
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TAL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.64 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.38, above the 50-day MA of 11.22, and above the 200-day MA of 11.15, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.04 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.22 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TAL.
TAL Education Group Risk Analysis
TAL Education Group disclosed 85 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TAL Education Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
TAL Education Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $4.13B | 3.81 | 19.89% | ― | 10.93% | 2.97% | |
73 Outperform | $4.59B | 21.44 | 28.22% | ― | 7.07% | -0.27% | |
73 Outperform | $8.77B | 16.99 | 10.79% | 1.03% | 12.38% | 11.05% | |
70 Outperform | $6.73B | 3.76 | 7.83% | ― | 34.00% | 578.17% | |
67 Neutral | $4.22B | 17.67 | 26.41% | ― | 8.64% | -1.04% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
TAL
TAL Education Group
11.12
2.39
27.38%
LOPE
Grand Canyon Education
169.07
-9.90
-5.53%
LRN
Stride
97.16
-53.54
-35.53%
EDU
New Oriental Education Tech
54.69
6.35
13.13%
LAUR
Laureate Education
30.10
9.45
45.81%
TAL Education Group Corporate Events
TAL Education Posts Strong Q3 2026 Profit Surge as Revenues Climb 27%
Jan 29, 2026
On January 29, 2026, TAL Education Group reported unaudited results for its third fiscal quarter ended November 30, 2025, showing a sharp rebound in profitability driven by strong top-line growth and tighter cost controls. Quarterly net revenues r...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.