Stride (LRN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.60B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.29M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.43
• Revenue Growth: 17.25%
• EPS Growth: 30.15%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,800
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Education & Training Services
• EPS (TTM): 2.12
• Shares Outstanding: 42,580,290
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,036,417
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,293,355
• PEG Ratio: 0.55
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.22
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.60
• P/FCF Ratio: 16.76
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.06
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.52
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.86
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.99
• 1Y Price Target: $111.00
• Price Target Upside: 28.23% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 7.18
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.51B

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: $94.00 ▲(8.60% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (material margin expansion, higher ROE, and improving leverage), tempered by slowing recent growth and weaker TTM free cash flow. Technicals are mixed with an overbought near-term setup and the price still below longer-term moving averages. Valuation is supportive at a 12.6 P/E, while the latest call was constructive but highlighted competitive and macro/FX risks.

Positive Factors

Enrollment-driven revenue growth

Consistent enrollment growth, especially a 17.6% rise in Career Learning, strengthens Stride's recurring tuition base and diversifies demand. Higher career enrollments and rising per-enrollment revenue in that segment support more predictable, scalable revenue and long-term program expansion.

Strong, durable margins and ROE

Sustained high gross and EBITDA margins and strong ROE indicate efficient operations and pricing power from proprietary curriculum and platform scale. These margin levels provide long-term flexibility to fund content, tech investments and withstand competitive pressures without sacrificing profitability.

Conservative leverage and healthy cash conversion

Low leverage and strong operating cash conversion support financial resilience and optionality for growth investment or shareholder returns. A conservative balance sheet reduces refinancing risk, helps absorb cyclical enrollment swings, and underpins multi-year strategic investments in products and markets.

Negative Factors

Reliance on enrollment-linked public funding

Dependence on government and district funding tied to enrollment and performance creates structural exposure to policy changes, budget cycles, and enrollment volatility. That linkage makes revenues lumpy and sensitive to regulatory shifts and funding decisions over the medium term.

ARPU compression in General Education

Falling revenue per enrollment in core general education signals pricing or mix pressure that can erode unit economics over time. If sustained, lower ARPU requires either higher enrollment growth or continued cost efficiencies to maintain margins, challenging long-term margin sustainability.

Declining free cash flow growth

A near-term drop in free cash flow growth may constrain the firm's ability to fund new product development, maintain content investment, or sustain aggressive capital returns. Persistently slowing FCF growth reduces strategic flexibility and increases sensitivity to adverse enrollment or funding shocks.

Stride Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Stride, Inc., a technology-based education service company, provides proprietary and third-party online curriculum, software systems, and educational services to facilitate individualized learning for students primarily in kindergarten through 12th grade (K-12) in the United States and internationally. Its technology-based products and services enable clients to attract, enroll, educate, track progress, and support students. The company offers integrated package of systems, services, products, and professional expertise to support a virtual or blended public school; individual online courses and supplemental educational products; and products and services for the general education market focused on subjects, including math, English, science, and history for kindergarten through twelfth grade students. It also provides career learning products and services that are focused on developing skills to enter in industries, including information technology, health care, and business; and focused post-secondary career learning programs, which include skills training for software engineering, healthcare, and medical fields to adult learners under Galvanize, Tech Elevator, and MedCerts brand names, as well as provides staffing and talent development services to employers. Stride, Inc. serves public and private schools, school districts, charter boards, consumers, employers, and government agencies. The company was formerly known as K12 Inc. and changed its name to Stride, Inc. in December 2020. Stride, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Reston, Virginia.

How the Company Makes Money

Stride generates revenue primarily through tuition fees collected from students enrolled in its online schools. These fees vary based on the specific programs and services offered. Additionally, the company earns revenue from the sale of its proprietary curriculum and educational resources to other schools and educational institutions. Stride also partners with various school districts and state education agencies, often receiving government funding based on enrollment numbers and student performance metrics. This diversified revenue model, combined with strategic partnerships and collaborations, contributes significantly to the company's overall financial performance.

Stride Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year profitability and margin expansion with improving ROE and declining leverage support a high score. Offsets are the sharp slowdown in recent revenue growth and a notable TTM free-cash-flow drop, which raises durability concerns.

Income Statement

LRN shows a strong multi-year earnings expansion with clear margin improvement. Revenue rose from $1.54B (2021) to $2.41B (2025 annual) and $2.52B in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), while net margin improved from ~4.6% (2021) to ~12.0% (2025 annual) and ~12.8% in TTM. Operating profitability strengthened as well, with EBIT margin rising from ~7.2% (2021) to ~16.4% (2025 annual) and ~17.8% in TTM. The main drawback is the sharp deceleration in growth in the latest period (TTM revenue growth of ~1.8% versus higher growth rates in prior years), which may pressure future operating leverage if it persists.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet appears healthy with moderate leverage and improving capital structure. Debt relative to equity declined meaningfully over time (from ~0.70 in 2022 to ~0.37 in 2025 annual; ~0.38 in TTM), alongside rising equity ($805M in 2021 to ~$1.55B in TTM). Returns to shareholders are strong and improving (return on equity ~8.9% in 2021 to ~19.5% in 2025 annual and ~22.0% in TTM). A remaining watch item is that total debt remains sizable in absolute terms (~$556M TTM), which can still constrain flexibility if operating momentum slows.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid and generally supportive of reported earnings, with free cash flow close to net income (free cash flow to net income ~1.00 in 2025 annual and ~0.96 in TTM). Operating cash flow also covers net income well (about 1.43x in 2025 annual and ~1.56x in TTM), indicating good cash conversion recently. The key weakness is volatility: free cash flow declined sharply in the latest TTM period (free cash flow growth of about -37%), even though profitability improved, which raises questions about working-capital timing or reinvestment needs.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.41B	2.04B	1.84B	1.69B	1.54B
Gross Profit	943.92M	763.60M	647.07M	596.48M	534.90M
EBITDA	508.39M	386.18M	291.31M	253.26M	203.36M
Net Income	287.94M	204.18M	126.87M	107.13M	71.45M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.29B	1.92B	1.76B	1.64B	1.58B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	985.27M	692.29M	522.73M	389.40M	386.08M
Total Debt	549.76M	528.21M	543.81M	565.67M	466.28M
Total Liabilities	814.34M	744.44M	813.37M	830.96M	772.65M
Stockholders Equity	1.48B	1.18B	947.30M	812.58M	804.65M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	372.81M	217.21M	136.60M	139.26M	81.89M
Operating Cash Flow	432.82M	278.80M	203.15M	206.88M	134.15M
Investing Cash Flow	-88.00M	-139.87M	-118.24M	-110.76M	-165.44M
Financing Cash Flow	-62.94M	-49.12M	-63.50M	-93.31M	204.58M

Stride Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 86.56
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LRN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 86.56 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 73.01, above the 50-day MA of 67.76, and below the 200-day MA of 121.23, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 3.89 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 81.34 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LRN.

Stride Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
STRA	77 Outperform	$2.00B	17.69	6.76%	2.99%	3.74%	-8.40%
LRN	76 Outperform	$3.60B	13.17	22.26%	―	17.25%	30.15%
PRDO	76 Outperform	$2.06B	13.69	16.14%	1.88%	24.23%	17.56%
ATGE	73 Outperform	$3.57B	15.57	17.92%	―	12.24%	52.97%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
COUR	61 Neutral	$1.02B	-22.00	-7.43%	―	8.10%	43.35%
MH	57 Neutral	$2.82B	-26.81	―	―	3.19%	-6.25%

Stride Corporate Events

Stride’s Annual Meeting Approves Key Proposals

Stride held its Annual Meeting on December 4, 2025, where several key proposals were voted on by stockholders. The election of directors saw eight nominees confirmed to continue in their roles. Additionally, the appointment of KPMG LLP as the independent auditor was ratified, executive compensation was approved on an advisory basis, and amendments to the 2016 Plan and the Employee Stock Purchase Plan (ESPP) were also approved. These decisions reflect the company’s ongoing governance and operational strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (LRN) stock is a Buy with a $68.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stride stock, see the LRN Stock Forecast page.

Stride Announces $500 Million Stock Buyback Program

On November 3, 2025, Stride, Inc. announced the approval of a stock repurchase program authorizing the buyback of up to $500 million of its common stock until October 31, 2026. This move reflects the company’s confidence in its long-term growth prospects and robust financial position, with the flexibility to repurchase shares depending on market conditions, aiming to create long-term value for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (LRN) stock is a Hold with a $77.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stride stock, see the LRN Stock Forecast page.