Stride (LRN)
NYSE:LRN
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Stride
(NYSE:LRN)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$94.00
▲(4.20% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:01/29/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (material margin expansion, higher ROE, and improving leverage), tempered by slowing recent growth and weaker TTM free cash flow. Technicals are mixed with an overbought near-term setup and the price still below longer-term moving averages. Valuation is supportive at a 12.6 P/E, while the latest call was constructive but highlighted competitive and macro/FX risks.
Positive Factors
Enrollment-driven revenue growth
Consistent enrollment growth, especially a 17.6% rise in Career Learning, strengthens Stride's recurring tuition base and diversifies demand. Higher career enrollments and rising per-enrollment revenue in that segment support more predictable, scalable revenue and long-term program expansion.
Negative Factors
Reliance on enrollment-linked public funding
Dependence on government and district funding tied to enrollment and performance creates structural exposure to policy changes, budget cycles, and enrollment volatility. That linkage makes revenues lumpy and sensitive to regulatory shifts and funding decisions over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Enrollment-driven revenue growth
Consistent enrollment growth, especially a 17.6% rise in Career Learning, strengthens Stride's recurring tuition base and diversifies demand. Higher career enrollments and rising per-enrollment revenue in that segment support more predictable, scalable revenue and long-term program expansion.
Read all positive factors
Stride (LRN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.84B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)727.30K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.0
Beta (1Y)0.38
Revenue Growth17.25%
EPS Growth30.15%
CountryUS
Employees7,800
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryEducation & Training Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.12
Shares Outstanding42,580,290
10 Day Avg. Volume541,846
30 Day Avg. Volume727,299
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.55
Price to Book (P/B)4.22
Price to Sales (P/S)2.60
P/FCF Ratio16.76
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.05
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.60
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.07
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.37
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$112.25Price Target Upside24.43% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)7.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.53B
Stride Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Stride, Inc., a technology-based education service company, provides proprietary and third-party online curriculum, software systems, and educational services to facilitate individualized learning for students primarily in kindergarten through 12t...
How the Company Makes Money
Stride generates revenue primarily through tuition fees collected from students enrolled in its online schools. These fees vary based on the specific programs and services offered. Additionally, the company earns revenue from the sale of its propr...
Stride Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 27, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong operational and financial performance with meaningful margin expansion, record quarterly operational PAT, robust cash conversion and disciplined capital allocation. These positives were balanced by sector realities: US competitive pressures, selective product exits to protect margins, donor-dependent access markets with lumpy demand, forex headwinds and the early-stage nature of new growth initiatives (controlled substances, Beyond Generics). Overall, the discussion emphasized sustainable, profitability‑led growth with cautious optimism on medium‑term market expansion.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Quarter revenue grew 4.6% year‑on‑year; first half revenue grew ~5.5% YoY. US revenue was $73M, up ~2% YoY.
Negative Updates
US Competitive Pressure and Relative Flatness
US segment has been broadly flat for several quarters with intense competition in certain molecules; management noted selective pricing pressure and a calibrated, profitability-first launch approach rather than chasing volume.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Quarter revenue grew 4.6% year‑on‑year; first half revenue grew ~5.5% YoY. US revenue was $73M, up ~2% YoY.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance from the call emphasized long‑term, sustainable growth with EPS accretion: management reiterated a US revenue target of $400m by FY28 and said the “rest of world” (other regulated + growth, net of access) should be able to mirror the US in ~2–3 years after recent momentum (rest‑of‑world crossed ~₹1,030 crore and is growing ~14–16% YoY; US was ~$73m, +2% YoY), and that controlled‑substances activity should meaningfuly contribute from next year. Financial guidance/targets and run‑rates called out include sustaining gross margins in the ~57–59% range, EBITDA margin ~19% (Q2 EBITDA ₹232 crore; H1 EBITDA ₹450 crore), operational PAT record of ₹140 crore in Q2 (H1 operational PAT ₹154 crore; operational EPS Q2 ₹15.2, H1 ₹27.6), revenue growth of 4.6% in Q2 (5.5% H1), R&D budget of about $15–20m, maintenance CapEx of ~₹100–150 crore (H1 CapEx ₹149 crore), tax rate (ETR) ~15–20% for the year, strong cash conversion (operational cash ₹394 crore in H1, ~87% of EBITDA, free cash ₹73 crore used to cut debt), net debt ~₹1,449 crore (FX restatement hit ~₹71 crore) with EBITDA/net‑debt ~1.65x (improving from 1.9x), ROCE ~16% and cash‑to‑cash ~113 days; management expects H2 to be at least slightly stronger and to continue prioritizing profitable launches and capital discipline.Stride Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
83
Very Positive
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.52B | 2.41B | 2.04B | 1.84B | 1.69B | 1.54B |
| Gross Profit | 989.96M | 943.92M | 763.60M | 647.07M | 596.48M | 534.90M |
| EBITDA | 546.48M | 508.39M | 386.18M | 291.31M | 253.26M | 203.36M |
| Net Income | 318.94M | 287.94M | 204.18M | 126.87M | 107.13M | 71.45M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.31B | 2.29B | 1.92B | 1.76B | 1.64B | 1.58B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 625.71M | 985.27M | 692.29M | 522.73M | 389.40M | 386.08M |
| Total Debt | 566.83M | 549.76M | 528.21M | 543.81M | 565.67M | 466.28M |
| Total Liabilities | 758.71M | 814.34M | 744.44M | 813.37M | 830.96M | 772.65M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.55B | 1.48B | 1.18B | 947.30M | 812.58M | 804.65M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 209.74M | 372.81M | 217.21M | 136.60M | 139.26M | 81.89M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 261.60M | 432.82M | 278.80M | 203.15M | 206.88M | 134.15M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -87.00M | -88.00M | -139.87M | -118.24M | -110.76M | -165.44M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -194.51M | -62.94M | -49.12M | -63.50M | -93.31M | 204.58M |
Stride Technical Analysis
Positive
90.21
Price Trends
86.11
Positive
76.29
Positive
106.72
Negative
Market Momentum
1.50
Negative
60.72
Neutral
76.48
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LRN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 90.21 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 87.48, above the 50-day MA of 86.11, and below the 200-day MA of 106.72, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.50 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.48 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LRN.
Stride Risk Analysis
Stride disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Stride reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Stride Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
85 Outperform | $2.21B | 11.89 | 16.30% | 1.88% | 24.23% | 17.56% | |
76 Outperform | $3.84B | 7.03 | 21.36% | ― | 17.25% | 30.15% | |
75 Outperform | $1.84B | 14.05 | 7.66% | 2.99% | 3.74% | -8.40% | |
67 Neutral | $907.52M | -23.64 | -8.12% | ― | 8.10% | 43.35% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
55 Neutral | $2.51B | -37.50 | ― | ― | 3.19% | -6.25% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
LRN
Stride
90.21
-44.58
-33.07%
PRDO
Perdoceo Education
35.38
10.05
39.69%
STRA
Strategic Education
81.19
6.15
8.20%
COUR
Coursera
5.36
-1.49
-21.75%
MH
McGraw Hill, Inc.
13.16
-3.65
-21.71%
Stride Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Stride’s Annual Meeting Approves Key Proposals
Neutral
Dec 10, 2025
Stride held its Annual Meeting on December 4, 2025, where several key proposals were voted on by stockholders. The election of directors saw eight nominees confirmed to continue in their roles. Additionally, the appointment of KPMG LLP as the inde...
Stock Buyback
Stride Announces $500 Million Stock Buyback Program
Positive
Nov 3, 2025
On November 3, 2025, Stride, Inc. announced the approval of a stock repurchase program authorizing the buyback of up to $500 million of its common stock until October 31, 2026. This move reflects the company’s confidence in its long-term gro...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.