Grand Canyon Education (LOPE)
NASDAQ:LOPE
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Grand Canyon Education
(NASDAQ:LOPE)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$192.00
▲(15.30% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/19/26
The score is driven mainly by strong financial quality (low leverage, strong ROE, and robust cash generation) and a positive earnings outlook supported by continued buybacks and expectations for margin expansion. Offsetting these are weaker technical momentum (negative MACD and price below longer-term averages) and a valuation that is reasonable but not clearly discounted, with no dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Balance sheet strength & high ROE
Consistently low leverage and mid-to-high 20% ROE give the company durable financial flexibility. This conservatism supports sustained capital allocation (buybacks, targeted CapEx), helps absorb enrollment cyclicality, and underpins long-term solvency and investment capacity without raising structural refinancing risk.
Negative Factors
Pressure on revenue per student
A structural decline in revenue per student driven by partner contract changes and program mix shifts can reduce top-line intensity and margin leverage over time. Unless offset by higher volumes or cost reductions, persistent lower per-student economics could compress service revenue and require strategic pricing or product repositioning.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance sheet strength & high ROE
Consistently low leverage and mid-to-high 20% ROE give the company durable financial flexibility. This conservatism supports sustained capital allocation (buybacks, targeted CapEx), helps absorb enrollment cyclicality, and underpins long-term solvency and investment capacity without raising structural refinancing risk.
Read all positive factors
Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.52B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)241.82K
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.4
Beta (1Y)0.82
Revenue Growth7.05%
EPS Growth-2.63%
CountryUS
Employees4,092
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryEducation & Training Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.21
Shares Outstanding27,143,454
10 Day Avg. Volume206,999
30 Day Avg. Volume241,821
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-166.55
Price to Book (P/B)6.20
Price to Sales (P/S)4.19
P/FCF Ratio19.42
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.05
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.27
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.09
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.95
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$230.00Price Target Upside38.12% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)9.95
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.18B
Grand Canyon Education Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. provides education services to colleges and universities in the United States. The company's technology services include learning management system, internal administration, infrastructure, and support services; academ...
How the Company Makes Money
Grand Canyon Education makes money primarily by providing a bundled set of education-related services to university partners under contractual arrangements, with Grand Canyon University (GCU) historically being its largest customer. Under these ag...
Grand Canyon Education Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominately positive operating and financial picture: enrollment growth (online and hybrid), revenue growth, margin expansion, an EPS beat, continued site/program expansion and aggressive share repurchases. Management acknowledged near-term headwinds — tougher comps in early 2026, revenue-per-student mix shifts, hybrid capacity constraints, a modest revenue hit from contract modifications/teach-outs (~$4.2M), regulatory noise around one graduate program category, and short-term margin pressure from investments — but positioned those as manageable and, in some cases, margin-accretive over time. Given the balance of strong operational metrics, profitability improvements, positive guidance posture and strategic investments outweighing the listed challenges, the tone is constructive and confident.Positive Updates
Strong Online Enrollment Growth
Online enrollment grew 8.7% year-over-year in Q4 2025, driven by mid-single-digit new starts and continued program rollouts and employer partnerships; total online headcount cited at over 107,000 students.
Negative Updates
Pressure on Revenue Per Student
Revenue per student decreased slightly year-over-year in Q4 2025, primarily due to contract modifications with partners (reduced revenue share in exchange for not reimbursing certain faculty costs) and a mix shift toward programs with lower net tuition rates.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Online Enrollment Growth
Online enrollment grew 8.7% year-over-year in Q4 2025, driven by mid-single-digit new starts and continued program rollouts and employer partnerships; total online headcount cited at over 107,000 students.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company provided 2026 GAAP and non‑GAAP guidance with quarterly ranges (seasonal start/end timing causes quarter-to-quarter shifts) and said the midpoint of EPS guidance is above consensus largely due to a lower projected share count from continued buybacks (605,730 shares repurchased in Q4 for ~$100M plus 352,051 since year‑end; $284.6M remaining authorization); Q4 2025 benchmarks include service revenue $308.1M, operating income $108.1M and operating margin 35.1%. For 2026 they expect new online starts to be up mid‑ to high‑single digits with total online enrollment growth pressured by graduations/reentries (midpoint near the high end of their 5–7% long‑term target), hybrid pillar new and total enrollment growth in the high‑single‑digits to mid‑teens per quarter (one new hybrid site in fall 2026; 14 locations at/near capacity), and GCU ground enrollment ranges of 21,900 (spring), 8,500–8,800 (summer) and 24,900–25,600 (fall) with the midpoint implying high‑single‑digit new‑start growth; they estimate a $4.2M revenue headwind from a contract modification and a partner teach‑out and semester timing shifts that move ~$1.0M from Q2 to Q1 and ~$8.3M from Q3 to Q4 vs. prior year. Financial cadence expectations include slightly lower margins in H1, margin expansion in H2 and full‑year margin growth, FY CapEx of $30–35M (Q4 CapEx ~$7.6M or 2.5% of service revenue), declining interest income from lower cash balances, and an expected effective tax rate by quarter of 23.4%, 24.9%, 24.9% and 24.3% (FY 24.3%).Grand Canyon Education Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
84
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.11B | 1.03B | 960.90M | 911.31M | 896.56M |
| Gross Profit | 579.94M | 544.43M | 503.71M | 487.50M | 515.31M |
| EBITDA | 343.52M | 327.87M | 291.68M | 271.30M | 365.30M |
| Net Income | 216.17M | 226.23M | 204.99M | 184.68M | 260.34M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 992.30M | 1.02B | 930.46M | 832.75M | 1.22B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 300.08M | 324.62M | 244.51M | 181.70M | 600.94M |
| Total Debt | 200.08M | 108.52M | 99.28M | 77.44M | 61.18M |
| Total Liabilities | 245.37M | 234.57M | 212.45M | 195.13M | 177.70M |
| Stockholders Equity | 746.93M | 783.85M | 718.01M | 637.62M | 1.05B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 238.65M | 252.71M | 198.23M | 185.19M | 283.73M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 273.49M | 289.96M | 243.66M | 220.82M | 313.12M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -221.59M | 61.37M | -80.47M | -97.14M | 950.98M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -264.76M | -173.18M | -137.12M | -604.21M | -908.93M |
Grand Canyon Education Technical Analysis
Negative
166.52
Price Trends
165.40
Positive
165.76
Positive
180.23
Negative
Market Momentum
1.32
Positive
47.89
Neutral
36.98
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LOPE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 166.52 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 167.93, above the 50-day MA of 165.40, and below the 200-day MA of 180.23, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.32 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LOPE.
Grand Canyon Education Risk Analysis
Grand Canyon Education disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Grand Canyon Education reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Grand Canyon Education Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $3.84B | 7.03 | 21.36% | ― | 17.25% | 30.15% | |
74 Outperform | $4.70B | 17.67 | 26.41% | ― | 2.01% | -13.82% | |
73 Outperform | $4.52B | 21.44 | 28.22% | ― | 7.05% | -2.63% | |
64 Neutral | $4.79B | 16.28 | 6.53% | 0.65% | 4.13% | 228.37% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
55 Neutral | $2.51B | -37.50 | -13.36% | ― | 3.19% | -6.25% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
LOPE
Grand Canyon Education
166.52
-7.59
-4.36%
LRN
Stride
90.21
-44.58
-33.07%
GHC
Graham Holdings
1,101.85
193.05
21.24%
LAUR
Laureate Education
32.91
13.64
70.78%
MH
McGraw Hill, Inc.
13.16
-3.65
-21.71%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.