Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.74B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 287.44K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 24.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.95
• Revenue Growth: 6.52%
• EPS Growth: 11.72%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,092
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Education & Training Services
• EPS (TTM): 1.53
• Shares Outstanding: 28,087,210
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 219,009
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 287,442
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.88
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.73
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.93
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.82
• 1Y Price Target: $216.67
• Price Target Upside: 6.07% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: $225.00 ▲(10.14% Upside)

Grand Canyon Education's strong financial performance and positive earnings call are the most significant factors driving the stock's score. The technical analysis suggests caution due to overbought conditions, and the valuation is moderate. The absence of a dividend yield and challenges in traditional enrollments slightly temper the overall outlook.

Positive Factors

Enrollment Growth

Total enrollment in its university partners’ programs increased 10.3%, marking the 11th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

Revenue Growth

Revenue in the second quarter increased 8.8% to $247.5 million, above estimates and the high end of management’s guidance.

Stock Valuation

The stock is trading at a discount to its Ed Tech peer group, which supports the OUTPERFORM rating and a 12-month price target of $215.

Negative Factors

Stock Repurchases

LOPE repurchased $68M in shares during the quarter and noted it has been active in daily repurchases.

Grand Canyon Education Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. provides education services to colleges and universities in the United States. The company's technology services include learning management system, internal administration, infrastructure, and support services; academic services comprises program and curriculum, faculty and related training and development, class scheduling, and skills and simulation lab sites; and counseling services and support include admission, financial aid, and field experience and other counseling services. It also offers marketing and communication services, such as lead acquisition, digital communications strategy, brand identity, market research, media planning and strategy, video, and business intelligence and data science; and back-office services comprising finance and accounting, human resources, audit, and procurement services. The company, through its subsidiary, Orbis Education Services, LLC, supports healthcare education programs for 27 universities. Grand Canyon Education, Inc. was founded in 1949 and is based in Phoenix, Arizona.

How the Company Makes Money

Grand Canyon Education generates revenue primarily through tuition and fees collected from students enrolled in its degree programs. The company operates a dual revenue model, with income derived from both online and on-campus students. Key revenue streams include undergraduate and graduate program tuition, as well as fees for various services such as housing and technology. Additionally, GCU benefits from partnerships with various organizations and institutions, which can lead to increased enrollment and collaborative programs. The company's ability to attract and retain students, combined with its focus on high-quality educational offerings, plays a significant role in its financial performance.

Grand Canyon Education Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Grand Canyon Education demonstrates strong financial health with robust profitability, efficient operations, and solid cash flow generation. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage, supporting continued growth and stability.

Income Statement

Grand Canyon Education shows strong profitability with a consistent increase in revenue and margins. The TTM gross profit margin is robust at 63.7%, and the net profit margin is healthy at 22.2%. Revenue growth is steady, with a TTM growth rate of 1.91%. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also strong, indicating efficient operations.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a solid balance sheet with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.14, indicating low leverage. Return on equity is impressive at 30.5%, reflecting efficient use of equity. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting a strong equity base relative to assets.

Cash Flow

Cash flow generation is strong, with a TTM free cash flow growth rate of 11%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.51, indicating good cash conversion. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.88, showing effective cash management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.07B	1.03B	960.90M	911.31M	896.56M	844.10M
Gross Profit	565.58M	544.43M	503.71M	487.50M	515.31M	493.55M
EBITDA	340.93M	327.87M	291.68M	271.30M	365.30M	367.19M
Net Income	236.51M	226.23M	204.99M	184.68M	260.34M	257.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.02B	1.02B	930.46M	832.75M	1.22B	1.84B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	373.90M	324.62M	244.51M	181.70M	600.94M	256.61M
Total Debt	107.83M	108.52M	99.28M	77.44M	61.18M	171.78M
Total Liabilities	243.03M	234.57M	212.45M	195.13M	177.70M	270.25M
Stockholders Equity	777.98M	783.85M	718.01M	637.62M	1.05B	1.57B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	261.16M	252.71M	198.23M	185.19M	283.73M	278.88M
Operating Cash Flow	298.07M	289.96M	243.66M	220.82M	313.12M	308.82M
Investing Cash Flow	-117.39M	61.37M	-80.47M	-97.14M	950.98M	-19.35M
Financing Cash Flow	-229.72M	-173.18M	-137.12M	-604.21M	-908.93M	-166.28M

Grand Canyon Education Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 204.28
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LOPE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 204.28 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 201.35, above the 50-day MA of 185.61, and above the 200-day MA of 178.69, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 5.70 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 66.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.75 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LOPE.

Grand Canyon Education Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
STRA	78 Outperform	$1.96B	17.05	6.89%	2.93%	4.31%	-1.08%
LOPE	77 Outperform	$5.74B	24.76	30.77%	―	6.52%	11.72%
LAUR	77 Outperform	$4.10B	16.43	25.81%	―	0.44%	35.19%
GHC	74 Outperform	$4.93B	7.26	16.28%	0.63%	4.73%	426.68%
ATGE	72 Outperform	$4.83B	21.70	16.60%	―	12.85%	81.69%
LRN	72 Outperform	$7.01B	26.71	21.69%	―	17.90%	39.75%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$20.52B	14.80	-2.68%	3.09%	1.95%	-4.76%

Grand Canyon Education Corporate Events

Grand Canyon Education Holds 2025 Annual Stockholders Meeting

On June 10, 2025, Grand Canyon Education, Inc. held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where 90.7% of the outstanding shares voted. During the meeting, stockholders elected directors, approved executive compensation, and ratified KPMG LLP as the independent auditor for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. These decisions are likely to impact the company’s governance and financial oversight, potentially influencing its strategic direction and stakeholder confidence.