Grand Canyon Education (LOPE)
NASDAQ:LOPE
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Grand Canyon Education
(NASDAQ:LOPE)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$165.00
▼(-5.67% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/11/26
The score is supported most by strong underlying financial quality (high margins, strong cash conversion, and low leverage) and a positive earnings-call outlook with continued enrollment and revenue growth. It is held back by weak technical trends (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and the notable TTM revenue decline highlighted in the financial statement analysis.
Positive Factors
High Margins & Cash Conversion
Sustained high gross and net margins plus strong cash conversion (OCF ~2.1x net income; FCF ~88% of net income) give durable internal funding capacity. This supports reinvestment, margin resilience through enrollment cycles, and financial flexibility given low leverage.
Negative Factors
TTM Revenue Decline
A large TTM revenue drop (-26.2%) is a material structural constraint that weakens growth visibility. Even with resilient margins, lower service-fee volumes can restrict reinvestment, compress future revenue trajectories and require execution to restore prior scale.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High Margins & Cash Conversion
Sustained high gross and net margins plus strong cash conversion (OCF ~2.1x net income; FCF ~88% of net income) give durable internal funding capacity. This supports reinvestment, margin resilience through enrollment cycles, and financial flexibility given low leverage.
Read all positive factors
Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.91B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)287.92K
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.9
Beta (1Y)0.76
Revenue Growth7.43%
EPS Growth0.49%
CountryUS
Employees4,092
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryEducation & Training Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)8.05
Shares Outstanding26,514,296
10 Day Avg. Volume342,545
30 Day Avg. Volume287,919
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-166.55
Price to Book (P/B)6.20
Price to Sales (P/S)4.19
P/FCF Ratio19.42
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.02
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.54
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.64
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.15
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$209.33Price Target Upside19.67% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)10.18
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.17B
Grand Canyon Education Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (GCE) furnishes a broad spectrum of educational support services to higher education institutions throughout the United States. Its comprehensive suite of offerings encompasses technology solutions, such as learning ma...
How the Company Makes Money
Grand Canyon Education primarily makes money by providing a contracted bundle of education services to partner universities, with GCU historically being the significant counterpart. Under this model, the company earns revenue via service fees tied...
Grand Canyon Education Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple strong operating metrics: double-digit growth in hybrid channels (18.3% / 20.3% ex-teach-out), solid online enrollment growth (8.8%), and service revenue growth of 6.7% to $308.8M. Management highlighted strong academic outcomes (mid-80s graduation rates for ABSN entrants, ~90% NCLEX pass) and major investments including an expanding Honors College, workforce programs, and broad AI adoption. Headwinds are present but relatively limited: a slight decline in spring ground enrollment, near-term marketing spend acceleration, selective slowing of hybrid site openings and some teach-outs/delays, and a changing lead-gen environment due to AI. Overall, the positive operational momentum, revenue growth, program expansions, and strong licensure outcomes outweigh the manageable near-term challenges.Positive Updates
Online Enrollment Growth
Online enrollment grew 8.8% year-over-year, with new starts up in the high single digits and online enrollments contributing significantly to overall service revenue growth.
Negative Updates
Slight Decline in Ground Campus Enrollment
Total traditional (ground) campus enrollments were down slightly year-over-year in Q1 2026 (noted as expected given seasonality and tougher year-over-year comps), though fall registrations are reported ahead of prior year.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Online Enrollment Growth
Online enrollment grew 8.8% year-over-year, with new starts up in the high single digits and online enrollments contributing significantly to overall service revenue growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided continued strong momentum across pillars: online enrollment rose 8.8% with new starts in the high single digits and roughly 30% of new starts coming from direct employer relationships (working with ~5,500 employers), hybrid enrollment increased 18.3% (20.3% excluding closed/teach-out sites) with hybrid new starts up ~20% excl. teach-outs, and they expect hybrid growth to moderate as sites reach capacity while profitability improves. They reiterated a target of 80 hybrid locations (40 GCU-owned), reported 47 sites as of 12/31/2025 after five openings, two closures and two mergers, plan 1–2 additional openings in 2026, will teach out three partner sites, and have shifted some planned openings into early 2027. Operational metrics cited include ~23,104 students enrolled in prerequisite online courses feeding ABSN programs, ABSN graduation rates in the mid‑80s, first‑time NCLEX pass rates ~90%, workforce program completions of 116 electricians, 15 CNC machinists and 29 manufacturing specialists, and Fall 2026 ground registrations running ahead of last year despite a slight Y/Y decline in total traditional enrollments; financials included Q1 service revenues of $308.8M, up $19.5M or 6.7% versus $289.3M (including a ~$1M benefit from one additional ground revenue day).Grand Canyon Education Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.13B | 1.11B | 1.03B | 960.90M | 911.31M | 896.56M |
| Gross Profit | 599.41M | 588.36M | 544.43M | 503.71M | 487.50M | 515.31M |
| EBITDA | 327.72M | 319.75M | 327.87M | 291.68M | 271.30M | 365.30M |
| Net Income | 219.90M | 216.17M | 226.23M | 204.99M | 184.68M | 260.34M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 967.89M | 992.30M | 1.02B | 930.46M | 832.75M | 1.22B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 251.70M | 300.08M | 324.62M | 244.51M | 181.70M | 600.94M |
| Total Debt | 104.18M | 200.08M | 108.52M | 99.28M | 77.44M | 61.18M |
| Total Liabilities | 271.70M | 245.37M | 234.57M | 212.45M | 195.13M | 177.70M |
| Stockholders Equity | 696.19M | 746.93M | 783.85M | 718.01M | 637.62M | 1.05B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 260.04M | 238.65M | 252.71M | 198.23M | 185.19M | 283.73M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 294.07M | 273.49M | 289.96M | 243.66M | 220.82M | 313.12M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -27.63M | -221.59M | 61.37M | -80.47M | -97.14M | 950.98M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -314.81M | -264.76M | -173.18M | -137.12M | -604.21M | -908.93M |
Grand Canyon Education Technical Analysis
Negative
174.92
Price Trends
161.91
Negative
164.06
Negative
175.39
Negative
Market Momentum
-3.57
Negative
35.85
Neutral
49.66
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LOPE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 174.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 153.12, above the 50-day MA of 161.91, and below the 200-day MA of 175.39, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.57 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 35.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.66 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LOPE.
Grand Canyon Education Risk Analysis
Grand Canyon Education disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Grand Canyon Education reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Grand Canyon Education Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $4.16B | 13.61 | 19.89% | ― | 10.93% | 2.97% | |
70 Outperform | $3.91B | 17.94 | 29.53% | ― | 7.43% | 0.49% | |
68 Neutral | $5.15B | 18.71 | 25.38% | ― | 13.81% | 1.26% | |
65 Neutral | $5.06B | 17.09 | 6.49% | 0.65% | 3.69% | -52.56% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
53 Neutral | $2.25B | 62.78 | -13.36% | ― | 0.07% | ― |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
LOPE
Grand Canyon Education
147.49
-39.20
-21.00%
LRN
Stride
97.71
-45.99
-32.00%
GHC
Graham Holdings
1,174.18
222.37
23.36%
LAUR
Laureate Education
36.76
14.36
64.11%
MH
McGraw Hill, Inc.
11.76
-5.05
-30.04%
Grand Canyon Education Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Grand Canyon Education Shareholders Back Leadership and Governance
Positive
Jun 10, 2026
On June 10, 2026, Grand Canyon Education, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, with approximately 91% of eligible shares represented, and shareholders elected all six director nominees to serve until the 2027 annual meeting. Investor...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Grand Canyon Education Considers Amendments to GCU Services Agreement
Neutral
Jun 3, 2026
Grand Canyon Education and its primary partner Grand Canyon University, which have operated under a 15-year Master Services Agreement since July 1, 2018, are exploring amendments that would reset or extend the term beyond June 30, 2033 and narrow ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.