Grand Canyon Education (LOPE)
NASDAQ:LOPE
Want to see LOPE full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Grand Canyon Education
(NASDAQ:LOPE)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$188.00
▲(7.48% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/01/26
The score is driven primarily by strong profitability, cash conversion, and a conservative balance sheet, supported by a positive earnings call showing continued enrollment and service revenue growth. Offsetting factors are the steep TTM revenue decline in the financial statements, a mostly neutral technical backdrop, and only moderate valuation support given a ~21.4 P/E and no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
High profitability & cash conversion
Sustained high margins and strong cash conversion indicate durable earnings quality. This supports reinvestment in academic programs, AI initiatives and marketing, funds operations through enrollment cycles, and provides flexibility to fund growth or return capital without relying on external financing.
Negative Factors
Recent sharp revenue decline
A large year-over-year revenue reset erodes near-term growth visibility. Even with strong margins, prolonged revenue weakness can limit reinvestment capacity, pressure operating leverage, and raise uncertainty about sustainable organic expansion across partner sites and channels.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High profitability & cash conversion
Sustained high margins and strong cash conversion indicate durable earnings quality. This supports reinvestment in academic programs, AI initiatives and marketing, funds operations through enrollment cycles, and provides flexibility to fund growth or return capital without relying on external financing.
Read all positive factors
Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.44B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)231.00K
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.1
Beta (1Y)0.82
Revenue Growth7.43%
EPS Growth0.49%
CountryUS
Employees4,092
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryEducation & Training Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)8.05
Shares Outstanding27,143,454
10 Day Avg. Volume228,690
30 Day Avg. Volume230,998
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-166.55
Price to Book (P/B)6.20
Price to Sales (P/S)4.19
P/FCF Ratio19.42
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.00
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.95
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.49
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.84
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$230.00Price Target Upside31.49% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)10.09
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.18B
Grand Canyon Education Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. provides education services to colleges and universities in the United States. The company's technology services include learning management system, internal administration, infrastructure, and support services; academ...
How the Company Makes Money
Grand Canyon Education makes money primarily by providing a bundled set of education-related services to university partners under contractual arrangements, with Grand Canyon University (GCU) historically being its largest customer. Under these ag...
Grand Canyon Education Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple strong operating metrics: double-digit growth in hybrid channels (18.3% / 20.3% ex-teach-out), solid online enrollment growth (8.8%), and service revenue growth of 6.7% to $308.8M. Management highlighted strong academic outcomes (mid-80s graduation rates for ABSN entrants, ~90% NCLEX pass) and major investments including an expanding Honors College, workforce programs, and broad AI adoption. Headwinds are present but relatively limited: a slight decline in spring ground enrollment, near-term marketing spend acceleration, selective slowing of hybrid site openings and some teach-outs/delays, and a changing lead-gen environment due to AI. Overall, the positive operational momentum, revenue growth, program expansions, and strong licensure outcomes outweigh the manageable near-term challenges.Positive Updates
Online Enrollment Growth
Online enrollment grew 8.8% year-over-year, with new starts up in the high single digits and online enrollments contributing significantly to overall service revenue growth.
Negative Updates
Slight Decline in Ground Campus Enrollment
Total traditional (ground) campus enrollments were down slightly year-over-year in Q1 2026 (noted as expected given seasonality and tougher year-over-year comps), though fall registrations are reported ahead of prior year.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Online Enrollment Growth
Online enrollment grew 8.8% year-over-year, with new starts up in the high single digits and online enrollments contributing significantly to overall service revenue growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided continued strong momentum across pillars: online enrollment rose 8.8% with new starts in the high single digits and roughly 30% of new starts coming from direct employer relationships (working with ~5,500 employers), hybrid enrollment increased 18.3% (20.3% excluding closed/teach-out sites) with hybrid new starts up ~20% excl. teach-outs, and they expect hybrid growth to moderate as sites reach capacity while profitability improves. They reiterated a target of 80 hybrid locations (40 GCU-owned), reported 47 sites as of 12/31/2025 after five openings, two closures and two mergers, plan 1–2 additional openings in 2026, will teach out three partner sites, and have shifted some planned openings into early 2027. Operational metrics cited include ~23,104 students enrolled in prerequisite online courses feeding ABSN programs, ABSN graduation rates in the mid‑80s, first‑time NCLEX pass rates ~90%, workforce program completions of 116 electricians, 15 CNC machinists and 29 manufacturing specialists, and Fall 2026 ground registrations running ahead of last year despite a slight Y/Y decline in total traditional enrollments; financials included Q1 service revenues of $308.8M, up $19.5M or 6.7% versus $289.3M (including a ~$1M benefit from one additional ground revenue day).Grand Canyon Education Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.13B | 1.11B | 1.03B | 960.90M | 911.31M | 896.56M |
| Gross Profit | 593.09M | 579.94M | 544.43M | 503.71M | 487.50M | 515.31M |
| EBITDA | 321.01M | 343.52M | 327.87M | 291.68M | 271.30M | 365.30M |
| Net Income | 219.90M | 216.17M | 226.23M | 204.99M | 184.68M | 260.34M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 967.89M | 992.30M | 1.02B | 930.46M | 832.75M | 1.22B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 251.70M | 300.08M | 324.62M | 244.51M | 181.70M | 600.94M |
| Total Debt | 104.18M | 200.08M | 108.52M | 99.28M | 77.44M | 61.18M |
| Total Liabilities | 271.70M | 245.37M | 234.57M | 212.45M | 195.13M | 177.70M |
| Stockholders Equity | 696.19M | 746.93M | 783.85M | 718.01M | 637.62M | 1.05B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 260.06M | 238.65M | 252.71M | 198.23M | 185.19M | 283.73M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 294.07M | 273.49M | 289.96M | 243.66M | 220.82M | 313.12M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -27.63M | -221.59M | 61.37M | -80.47M | -97.14M | 950.98M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -314.81M | -264.76M | -173.18M | -137.12M | -604.21M | -908.93M |
Grand Canyon Education Technical Analysis
Positive
174.92
Price Trends
165.36
Positive
166.13
Positive
179.79
Negative
Market Momentum
1.51
Negative
62.20
Neutral
67.37
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LOPE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 174.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 169.35, above the 50-day MA of 165.36, and below the 200-day MA of 179.79, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.51 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LOPE.
Grand Canyon Education Risk Analysis
Grand Canyon Education disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Grand Canyon Education reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Grand Canyon Education Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $3.96B | 10.69 | 19.89% | ― | 10.93% | 2.97% | |
72 Outperform | $4.44B | 15.09 | 28.22% | ― | 7.43% | 0.49% | |
68 Neutral | $4.38B | -57.39 | 26.41% | ― | 13.81% | 1.26% | |
66 Neutral | $4.93B | 39.33 | 6.53% | 0.65% | 3.69% | -52.56% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
55 Neutral | $2.25B | -37.50 | -13.36% | ― | 3.17% | 4.85% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
LOPE
Grand Canyon Education
163.41
-22.67
-12.18%
LRN
Stride
93.08
-67.64
-42.09%
GHC
Graham Holdings
1,134.42
199.61
21.35%
LAUR
Laureate Education
31.24
8.59
37.92%
MH
McGraw Hill, Inc.
11.77
-5.04
-29.98%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.