Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.70B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 402.77K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 22.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.94
• Revenue Growth: 7.05%
• EPS Growth: -2.63%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,092
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Education & Training Services
• EPS (TTM): 1.78
• Shares Outstanding: 27,968,475
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 491,015
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 402,775
• PEG Ratio: 1.53
• Price to Book (P/B): 6.08
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.61
• P/FCF Ratio: 18.86
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.27
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 5.46
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.34
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 19.14
• 1Y Price Target: $237.50
• Price Target Upside: 41.23% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 9.08
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.11B

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: $185.00 ▲(10.01% Upside)

Grand Canyon Education's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and positive corporate events, such as the expansion of the stock repurchase program. However, technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, and valuation is moderate, which tempers the overall score.

Positive Factors

Online Enrollment Growth

The strong growth in online enrollment reflects the company's ability to adapt to the increasing demand for flexible learning options, which is a durable trend in the education sector.

Program Expansion

Expanding program offerings in high-demand fields like nursing and healthcare positions the company for sustained growth and strengthens its competitive advantage.

Stock Repurchase Program

The expanded stock repurchase program reflects management's confidence in the company's financial health and enhances shareholder value over the long term.

Negative Factors

Decline in Traditional Campus Enrollment

A decline in traditional campus enrollment could indicate challenges in attracting students to on-campus programs, potentially impacting future revenue streams.

Revenue Per Student Decrease

Decreasing revenue per student may pressure profit margins and suggests potential challenges in maintaining pricing power or cost efficiency.

Impact of Government Shutdown

The potential revenue impact from government shutdowns highlights vulnerability to external political factors, affecting financial predictability.

Grand Canyon Education Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. provides education services to colleges and universities in the United States. The company's technology services include learning management system, internal administration, infrastructure, and support services; academic services comprises program and curriculum, faculty and related training and development, class scheduling, and skills and simulation lab sites; and counseling services and support include admission, financial aid, and field experience and other counseling services. It also offers marketing and communication services, such as lead acquisition, digital communications strategy, brand identity, market research, media planning and strategy, video, and business intelligence and data science; and back-office services comprising finance and accounting, human resources, audit, and procurement services. The company, through its subsidiary, Orbis Education Services, LLC, supports healthcare education programs for 27 universities. Grand Canyon Education, Inc. was founded in 1949 and is based in Phoenix, Arizona.

How the Company Makes Money

Grand Canyon Education generates revenue primarily through tuition and fees collected from students enrolled in its degree programs. The company's financial model is based on a per-student tuition structure, where it retains a portion of the tuition fees as part of its service agreements with Grand Canyon University. Additionally, the company may earn revenue through grants, research funding, and auxiliary services, such as online course materials and technology support. Key partnerships with educational institutions and businesses also contribute to its income streams. The growth of online education, particularly post-COVID-19, has further amplified its revenue potential, as more students seek flexible learning options.

Grand Canyon Education Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Grand Canyon Education exhibits strong financial health with robust profitability, efficient operations, and a solid balance sheet. While revenue and profit margins are stable, attention is needed on the declining free cash flow growth and slight increase in debt. Overall, the company is well-positioned in the education sector, with potential for continued growth if cash flow management is improved.

Income Statement

Grand Canyon Education demonstrates strong profitability with a consistent gross profit margin of over 52% and a net profit margin exceeding 22% in the TTM. Revenue growth is steady at 2.14% in the TTM, indicating a stable upward trajectory. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust, reflecting efficient operations. However, the slight decline in net income from the previous year suggests a need for monitoring potential cost increases.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.14, indicating conservative leverage. Return on equity is impressive at over 30%, showcasing effective use of equity capital. The equity ratio is strong, suggesting a solid financial foundation. However, the slight increase in total debt warrants attention to ensure continued financial stability.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains strong with a coverage ratio of 2.51, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. Free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 0.88, demonstrating efficient cash conversion. However, the negative growth in free cash flow in the TTM suggests potential challenges in cash management that need addressing.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.09B	1.03B	960.90M	911.31M	896.56M	844.10M
Gross Profit	576.13M	544.43M	503.71M	487.50M	515.31M	493.55M
EBITDA	311.20M	327.87M	291.68M	271.30M	365.30M	367.19M
Net Income	211.32M	226.23M	204.99M	184.68M	260.34M	257.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.03B	1.02B	930.46M	832.75M	1.22B	1.84B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	97.28M	324.62M	244.51M	181.70M	600.94M	256.61M
Total Debt	110.53M	108.52M	99.28M	77.44M	61.18M	171.78M
Total Liabilities	274.75M	234.57M	212.45M	195.13M	177.70M	270.25M
Stockholders Equity	758.04M	783.85M	718.01M	637.62M	1.05B	1.57B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	241.67M	252.71M	198.23M	185.19M	283.73M	278.88M
Operating Cash Flow	278.82M	289.96M	243.66M	220.82M	313.12M	308.82M
Investing Cash Flow	-215.55M	61.37M	-80.47M	-97.14M	950.98M	-19.35M
Financing Cash Flow	-229.58M	-173.18M	-137.12M	-604.21M	-908.93M	-166.28M

Grand Canyon Education Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 168.17
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LOPE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 168.17 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 159.15, below the 50-day MA of 176.50, and below the 200-day MA of 185.42, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.45 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.83 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LOPE.

Grand Canyon Education Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ATGE	79 Outperform	$3.73B	15.55	17.38%	―	12.24%	52.97%
GHC	75 Outperform	$4.85B	6.64	17.20%	0.65%	4.13%	228.37%
LOPE	74 Outperform	$4.70B	22.69	27.77%	―	7.05%	-2.63%
LAUR	73 Outperform	$4.99B	24.47	20.15%	―	2.01%	-13.82%
LRN	70 Outperform	$2.90B	10.22	23.04%	―	17.25%	30.15%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
MH	60 Neutral	$3.30B	-31.88	―	―	3.19%	-6.25%

Grand Canyon Education Corporate Events

Grand Canyon Education Expands Stock Repurchase Program

On December 12, 2025, Grand Canyon University (GCU) announced that the U.S. Department of Education formally recognized its status as a non-profit institution, following a series of government-related actions that had concluded favorably. Additionally, on December 10, 2025, Grand Canyon Education‘s Board of Directors approved a $300 million increase in its stock repurchase program, bringing the total authorization to $2,545 million, with repurchases allowed until March 1, 2027.

Grand Canyon Education Resolves Key Legal Challenges

Grand Canyon Education has resolved several legal matters involving GCU and itself. Notably, the Ninth Circuit reversed a decision by the U.S. Department of Education (ED) regarding GCU’s non-profit status, prompting a re-examination by ED. Additionally, a $37.7 million fine against GCU for alleged misrepresentations in its doctoral programs was rescinded, and a related FTC lawsuit was dismissed. A qui tam lawsuit against Grand Canyon Education regarding compensation policies was settled for $35 million, with ED affirming the legality of current practices. These resolutions conclude all known government-related actions against the company and GCU, except for the ongoing review of GCU’s Title IV participation as a non-profit.