Seagate Tech (STX)
NASDAQ:STX
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Seagate Tech
(NASDAQ:STX)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$516.00
▲(3.97% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/20/26
STX scores 70 mainly due to strong technical momentum and upbeat earnings-call guidance alongside solid profitability and free-cash-flow generation. The score is held back by weaker balance-sheet quality (limited equity cushion) and a relatively expensive valuation (high P/E and low yield), which increase risk if demand, pricing, or execution (HAMR ramp) disappoints.
Positive Factors
Free cash flow generation
Sustained multi-billion-dollar operating and free cash flow gives Seagate durable financial flexibility: funds debt reduction, R&D and HAMR ramp, dividends and buybacks. Strong FCF also buffers cyclicality, enabling disciplined capex at 4%–6% of revenue while supporting capital returns and liability management.
Negative Factors
Weak balance-sheet / negative equity history
A history of negative equity and a thin capital cushion raises structural financial vulnerability: leverage metrics are distorted, refinancing or cyclical revenue drops could strain liquidity, and downside volatility could force higher-cost financing or asset-sales, constraining strategic optionality during downturns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free cash flow generation
Sustained multi-billion-dollar operating and free cash flow gives Seagate durable financial flexibility: funds debt reduction, R&D and HAMR ramp, dividends and buybacks. Strong FCF also buffers cyclicality, enabling disciplined capex at 4%–6% of revenue while supporting capital returns and liability management.
Read all positive factors
Seagate Tech (STX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$108.23B
Dividend Yield1.02%
Average Volume (3M)3.53M
Price to Earnings (P/E)26.1
Beta (1Y)1.98
Revenue Growth31.56%
EPS Growth106.00%
CountryUS
Employees30,000
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryComputer Hardware
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.11
Shares Outstanding218,073,070
10 Day Avg. Volume3,998,476
30 Day Avg. Volume3,533,547
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.06
Price to Book (P/B)-66.19
Price to Sales (P/S)3.30
P/FCF Ratio36.66
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.03
Enterprise Value/Revenue11.10
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit28.73
Enterprise Value/Ebitda40.82
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$479.19Price Target Upside-3.45% Downside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)12.96
Revenue Forecast (FY)$11.54B
Seagate Tech Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Seagate Technology Holdings plc provides data storage technology and solutions in Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and internationally. It provides mass capacity storage products, including enterprise nearline hard disk drives (HDDs)...
How the Company Makes Money
Seagate makes money primarily by selling storage hardware, with revenue largely driven by HDD unit shipments and the average selling price per drive, especially in mass-capacity HDDs used by cloud service providers and enterprise customers. Key re...
Seagate Tech Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Highlights income from different business areas, showing which segments drive growth and profitability for Seagate Tech.
Highlights income from different business areas, showing which segments drive growth and profitability for Seagate Tech.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlySeagate Tech Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strongly positive operational and financial picture: record revenue, margins and exabyte shipments, a healthy cash generation and a clear technology roadmap with HAMR qualifications and product ramps. Most near-term indicators and guidance are upbeat. Notable cautions include tight supply (capacity fully allocated through 2026), pricing and contract uncertainty beyond 2026, customer concentration, and transition/execution risks tied to HAMR and higher platter densities. On balance the positive results, momentum and guidance substantially outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Record Financial Performance
December quarter revenue of $2.83B (up 7% sequentially and 22% year-over-year); non-GAAP gross margin 42.2% (up 210 bps QoQ); non-GAAP operating margin 31.9% (up 290 bps QoQ); non-GAAP EPS $3.11 (up 19% QoQ). Company set records for exabyte shipments, gross margin, operating margin and non-GAAP EPS.
Negative Updates
Tight Supply and Allocation Constraints
Nearline capacity is fully allocated through calendar 2026, limiting ability to accept new orders until early 2027 and reflecting industry tightness that constrains incremental unit growth.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Financial Performance
December quarter revenue of $2.83B (up 7% sequentially and 22% year-over-year); non-GAAP gross margin 42.2% (up 210 bps QoQ); non-GAAP operating margin 31.9% (up 290 bps QoQ); non-GAAP EPS $3.11 (up 19% QoQ). Company set records for exabyte shipments, gross margin, operating margin and non-GAAP EPS.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Seagate guided March-quarter revenue of $2.9 billion ± $100 million (midpoint ~34% year‑over‑year growth), non‑GAAP operating expenses of about $290 million, non‑GAAP operating margin approaching the mid‑30% range and non‑GAAP EPS of $3.40 ± $0.20 based on a ~16% tax rate and roughly 230 million diluted shares (including ~7.6 million from 2028 convertibles). Management said sequential improvement to both top and bottom line is expected throughout calendar 2026, free cash flow should expand further following $607 million generated in the December quarter, and FY2026 capital expenditures are targeted at 4%–6% of revenue (December-quarter CapEx was $116 million, ~4% of revenue). They also noted strong liquidity (cash & equivalents just over $1.0 billion, total available liquidity $2.3 billion), gross debt of about $4.5 billion, a net leverage ratio of 1.1x based on $962 million adjusted EBITDA in the December quarter, and that nearline capacity is fully allocated through calendar 2026 with orders for H1 2027 to be accepted soon as HAMR ramps (Mozaic 4 beginning ramp later this quarter).Seagate Tech Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
32
Negative
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 10.06B | 9.10B | 6.55B | 7.38B | 11.66B | 10.68B |
| Gross Profit | 3.89B | 3.20B | 1.54B | 1.42B | 3.47B | 2.92B |
| EBITDA | 2.74B | 2.08B | 1.04B | 330.00M | 2.38B | 1.97B |
| Net Income | 1.97B | 1.47B | 335.00M | -529.00M | 1.65B | 1.31B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 8.71B | 8.02B | 7.74B | 7.56B | 8.94B | 8.68B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.05B | 891.00M | 1.36B | 786.00M | 617.00M | 1.21B |
| Total Debt | 4.50B | 5.37B | 5.67B | 5.83B | 5.70B | 5.19B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.25B | 8.48B | 9.23B | 8.76B | 8.84B | 8.04B |
| Stockholders Equity | 459.00M | -453.00M | -1.49B | -1.20B | 109.00M | 631.00M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.90B | 818.00M | 664.00M | 626.00M | 1.28B | 1.13B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.02B | 1.08B | 918.00M | 942.00M | 1.66B | 1.63B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -344.00M | -276.00M | 126.00M | 217.00M | -352.00M | -466.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.87B | -1.27B | -473.00M | -988.00M | -1.90B | -1.67B |
Seagate Tech Technical Analysis
Positive
496.30
Price Trends
407.86
Positive
348.09
Positive
268.60
Positive
Market Momentum
17.65
Negative
67.98
Neutral
90.63
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 496.3 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 411.76, above the 50-day MA of 407.86, and above the 200-day MA of 268.60, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 17.65 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.63 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for STX.
Seagate Tech Risk Analysis
Seagate Tech disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Seagate Tech reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Seagate Tech Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $114.86B | 8.79 | 64.18% | 0.18% | -16.35% | 316.56% | |
71 Outperform | $20.57B | 123.52 | 13.91% | ― | 13.18% | -0.92% | |
70 Outperform | $108.23B | 26.06 | -889.39% | 1.02% | 31.56% | 106.00% | |
70 Outperform | $119.77B | 12.78 | -218.24% | 1.45% | 19.12% | 39.59% | |
64 Neutral | $19.63B | 14.44 | 116.57% | 1.89% | 2.64% | 4.12% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
57 Neutral | $17.28B | 8.26 | 1135.29% | 5.09% | 4.09% | -5.77% |
* Technology Sector Average
STX
Seagate Tech
496.30
422.96
576.67%
HPQ
HP
18.89
-4.22
-18.26%
NTAP
NetApp
99.47
15.00
17.76%
WDC
Western Digital
338.78
302.64
837.33%
PSTG
Pure Storage
62.25
17.55
39.26%
DELL
Dell Technologies
185.47
102.82
124.39%
Seagate Tech Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Seagate Tech Executes Private Exchange to Retire Debt
Positive
Feb 19, 2026
On February 19, 2026, Seagate Technology Holdings plc announced it had closed previously arranged private exchanges of $600 million principal amount of 3.50% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2028 issued by its Seagate HDD Cayman unit. In return, the ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Seagate Tech Announces Private Exchange of Senior Notes
Neutral
Feb 12, 2026
On February 11, 2026, Seagate Technology Holdings and its subsidiary Seagate HDD Cayman entered privately negotiated exchange agreements with a limited number of holders of Seagate HDD’s 3.50% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2028 to exchange $...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Seagate Tech posts strong Q2 results, boosts shareholder returns
Positive
Jan 27, 2026
On January 28, 2026, Seagate Technology reported strong fiscal second-quarter 2026 results for the period ended January 2, 2026, with revenue rising to $2.83 billion from $2.33 billion a year earlier, GAAP gross margin expanding to 41.6%, and GAAP...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.