Seagate Tech (STX)
NASDAQ:STX
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Seagate Tech
(NASDAQ:STX)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$651.00
â–²(18.85% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/29/26
The score is driven primarily by a strong fundamentals upswing (profitability and free cash flow) reinforced by upbeat guidance and product momentum from the earnings call. This is tempered by balance-sheet fragility/leverage history, and a valuation that looks expensive (P/E ~31) with limited dividend support, even as technicals remain broadly bullish but somewhat overextended.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Seagate's TTM operating cash flow (~$2.88B) and free cash flow (~$2.63B) demonstrate durable cash conversion that funds capex, debt reduction and shareholder returns. Persistent high FCF strengthens financial flexibility, supports deleveraging and cushions cyclicality in HDD demand.
Negative Factors
Balance sheet fragility
Historic negative equity and still-elevated leverage (debt-to-equity near 9.8x TTM) limit strategic flexibility. Even with recent retirements, the capital structure remains sensitive to earnings swings, increasing refinancing and rating risk and constraining sizable M&A or cyclical cushioning.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Seagate's TTM operating cash flow (~$2.88B) and free cash flow (~$2.63B) demonstrate durable cash conversion that funds capex, debt reduction and shareholder returns. Persistent high FCF strengthens financial flexibility, supports deleveraging and cushions cyclicality in HDD demand.
Read all positive factors
Seagate Tech (STX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$129.94B
Dividend Yield1.02%
Average Volume (3M)3.50M
Price to Earnings (P/E)31.1
Beta (1Y)2.03
Revenue Growth25.18%
EPS Growth65.02%
CountryUS
Employees30,000
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryComputer Hardware
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.10
Shares Outstanding218,073,070
10 Day Avg. Volume3,451,661
30 Day Avg. Volume3,495,309
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.06
Price to Book (P/B)-66.19
Price to Sales (P/S)3.30
P/FCF Ratio36.66
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.00
Enterprise Value/Revenue11.78
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit28.36
Enterprise Value/Ebitda39.18
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$697.47Price Target Upside27.33% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)13.14
Revenue Forecast (FY)$11.57B
Seagate Tech Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Seagate Technology Holdings plc provides data storage technology and solutions in Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and internationally. It provides mass capacity storage products, including enterprise nearline hard disk drives (HDDs)...
How the Company Makes Money
Seagate makes money primarily by selling storage hardware, with revenue largely driven by HDD unit shipments and the average selling price per drive, especially in mass-capacity HDDs used by cloud service providers and enterprise customers. Key re...
Seagate Tech Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Highlights income from different business areas, showing which segments drive growth and profitability for Seagate Tech.
Highlights income from different business areas, showing which segments drive growth and profitability for Seagate Tech.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlySeagate Tech Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Jul 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple strong operational and financial wins: substantial revenue growth (44% YoY), record margins, very high free cash flow, accelerating HAMR product momentum (Mozaic 4 revenue shipments and roadmap to 50 TB), improved leverage and an investment-grade rating. Challenges highlighted were largely manageable: remaining HAMR customer qualifications, capacity constraints that prioritize cloud demand (limiting short-term ability to serve lower-capacity markets), residual debt and concentration of revenue in cloud customers. On balance, the positives (robust top-line growth, margin expansion, cash generation and clear product roadmap) outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Revenue of $3.1 billion in the March quarter, up 44% year-over-year and 10% sequentially; June-quarter guidance midpoint of $3.45 billion (~41% YoY growth at midpoint).
Negative Updates
Customer Concentration Risk
Heavy reliance on cloud/hyperscale customers: cloud/data center accounted for 80% of revenue and 88% of exabyte shipments in the quarter, presenting concentration exposure to a limited set of large customers.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue Growth
Revenue of $3.1 billion in the March quarter, up 44% year-over-year and 10% sequentially; June-quarter guidance midpoint of $3.45 billion (~41% YoY growth at midpoint).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For the June quarter Seagate guided revenue of $3.45 billion ± $100 million (midpoint implying ~41% year‑over‑year growth), non‑GAAP operating expenses of about $295 million, and non‑GAAP operating margin in the lower‑40% range; non‑GAAP EPS is expected at $5.00 ± $0.20 based on a tax rate of ~16% and a non‑GAAP diluted share count of ~231 million shares (including ~3 million from the 2028 convertible), with other income/expense expected to remain relatively flat. Management also said free cash flow should improve further through the remainder of calendar 2026, fiscal‑year capex is expected to stay in the 4%–6% of revenue range, and net leverage is expected to continue declining as debt reduction and profitability progress.Seagate Tech Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
36
Negative
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 11.01B | 9.10B | 6.55B | 7.38B | 11.66B | 10.68B |
| Gross Profit | 4.57B | 3.20B | 1.54B | 1.42B | 3.47B | 2.92B |
| EBITDA | 3.31B | 2.08B | 1.04B | 330.00M | 2.38B | 1.97B |
| Net Income | 2.38B | 1.47B | 335.00M | -529.00M | 1.65B | 1.31B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 8.89B | 8.02B | 7.74B | 7.56B | 8.94B | 8.68B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.15B | 891.00M | 1.36B | 786.00M | 617.00M | 1.21B |
| Total Debt | 398.00M | 5.37B | 5.67B | 5.83B | 5.70B | 5.19B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.80B | 8.48B | 9.23B | 8.76B | 8.84B | 8.04B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.09B | -453.00M | -1.49B | -1.20B | 109.00M | 631.00M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.63B | 818.00M | 664.00M | 626.00M | 1.28B | 1.13B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.88B | 1.08B | 918.00M | 942.00M | 1.66B | 1.63B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -499.00M | -276.00M | 126.00M | 217.00M | -352.00M | -466.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.05B | -1.27B | -473.00M | -988.00M | -1.90B | -1.67B |
Seagate Tech Technical Analysis
Positive
547.75
Price Trends
421.66
Positive
366.47
Positive
282.00
Positive
Market Momentum
37.34
Negative
72.43
Negative
93.68
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 547.75 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 454.25, above the 50-day MA of 421.66, and above the 200-day MA of 282.00, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 37.34 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.43 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.68 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for STX.
Seagate Tech Risk Analysis
Seagate Tech disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Seagate Tech reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Seagate Tech Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $135.86B | 8.79 | 64.18% | 0.18% | -31.20% | 149.53% | |
75 Outperform | $129.94B | 31.14 | -889.39% | 1.02% | 25.18% | 65.02% | |
71 Outperform | $141.04B | 12.78 | -218.24% | 1.45% | 19.12% | 39.59% | |
64 Neutral | $21.40B | 14.44 | 116.57% | 1.89% | 3.04% | 9.12% | |
62 Neutral | $18.07B | 8.26 | 1135.29% | 5.09% | 5.09% | -5.05% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% |
* Technology Sector Average
STX
Seagate Tech
579.03
498.47
618.75%
HPQ
HP
19.73
-4.56
-18.78%
NTAP
NetApp
108.28
22.09
25.63%
WDC
Western Digital
390.99
350.55
866.72%
DELL
Dell Technologies
205.93
113.56
122.93%
Seagate Tech Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Seagate Reports Strong Q3 Rebound and AI-Driven Outlook
Positive
Apr 28, 2026
On April 28 and 29, 2026, Seagate announced fiscal third-quarter 2026 results that showed a sharp rebound in performance, with revenue rising to $3.11 billion, GAAP gross margin reaching 46.5%, and GAAP diluted EPS climbing to $3.27, alongside nea...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Seagate Tech Executes Private Exchange to Retire Debt
Positive
Feb 19, 2026
On February 19, 2026, Seagate Technology Holdings plc announced it had closed previously arranged private exchanges of $600 million principal amount of 3.50% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2028 issued by its Seagate HDD Cayman unit. In return, the ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Seagate Tech Announces Private Exchange of Senior Notes
Neutral
Feb 12, 2026
On February 11, 2026, Seagate Technology Holdings and its subsidiary Seagate HDD Cayman entered privately negotiated exchange agreements with a limited number of holders of Seagate HDD’s 3.50% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2028 to exchange $...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.