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Seagate Tech
(NASDAQ:STX)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$1,138.00
â–²(107.76% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/13/26
The score is driven by a strong fundamental upswing (improving profitability and high free cash flow) and clear bullish technical trends, reinforced by upbeat guidance and execution progress discussed on the earnings call. The biggest constraints are balance-sheet fragility/high leverage sensitivity and a demanding valuation multiple, which raise downside risk if the cycle or HAMR execution weakens.
Positive Factors
Robust free cash flow generation
Sustained high free cash flow (TTM ~$2.63B and strong quarterly FCF) underpins durable financial flexibility: funds ongoing R&D, HAMR ramps, debt reduction, and shareholder returns. High cash conversion supports capital allocation even if cyclical HDD demand softens.
Negative Factors
Customer concentration in cloud/hyperscalers
Revenue concentration with a few hyperscalers increases bargaining power risk and sensitivity to individual capex cycles or contract repricing. A large customer pullback or reallocation of workloads could materially affect revenue, utilization and pricing leverage over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Robust free cash flow generation
Sustained high free cash flow (TTM ~$2.63B and strong quarterly FCF) underpins durable financial flexibility: funds ongoing R&D, HAMR ramps, debt reduction, and shareholder returns. High cash conversion supports capital allocation even if cyclical HDD demand softens.
Read all positive factors
Seagate Tech Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Highlights income from different business areas, showing which segments drive growth and profitability for Seagate Tech.
Highlights income from different business areas, showing which segments drive growth and profitability for Seagate Tech.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlySeagate Tech (STX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$205.21B
Dividend Yield1.02%
Average Volume (3M)3.78M
Price to Earnings (P/E)83.1
Beta (1Y)2.15
Revenue Growth28.92%
EPS Growth55.56%
CountryUS
Employees30,000
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryComputer Hardware
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)11.01
Shares Outstanding224,228,990
10 Day Avg. Volume4,318,708
30 Day Avg. Volume3,781,530
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.06
Price to Book (P/B)-66.19
Price to Sales (P/S)3.30
P/FCF Ratio36.66
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.18
Enterprise Value/Revenue21.99
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit52.92
Enterprise Value/Ebitda71.68
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$966.67Price Target Upside76.48% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering19
EPS Forecast (FY)27.7
Revenue Forecast (FY)$16.68B
Seagate Tech Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Seagate Technology Holdings plc, headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, is a global provider of advanced data storage technology and solutions, with operations spanning Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and other international regions. The...
How the Company Makes Money
Seagate makes money primarily by selling storage hardware, with revenue largely driven by HDD unit shipments and the average selling price per drive, especially in mass-capacity HDDs used by cloud service providers and enterprise customers. Key re...
Seagate Tech Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 28, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple strong operational and financial wins: substantial revenue growth (44% YoY), record margins, very high free cash flow, accelerating HAMR product momentum (Mozaic 4 revenue shipments and roadmap to 50 TB), improved leverage and an investment-grade rating. Challenges highlighted were largely manageable: remaining HAMR customer qualifications, capacity constraints that prioritize cloud demand (limiting short-term ability to serve lower-capacity markets), residual debt and concentration of revenue in cloud customers. On balance, the positives (robust top-line growth, margin expansion, cash generation and clear product roadmap) outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Revenue of $3.1 billion in the March quarter, up 44% year-over-year and 10% sequentially; June-quarter guidance midpoint of $3.45 billion (~41% YoY growth at midpoint).
Negative Updates
Customer Concentration Risk
Heavy reliance on cloud/hyperscale customers: cloud/data center accounted for 80% of revenue and 88% of exabyte shipments in the quarter, presenting concentration exposure to a limited set of large customers.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue Growth
Revenue of $3.1 billion in the March quarter, up 44% year-over-year and 10% sequentially; June-quarter guidance midpoint of $3.45 billion (~41% YoY growth at midpoint).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For the June quarter Seagate guided revenue of $3.45 billion ± $100 million (midpoint implying ~41% year‑over‑year growth), non‑GAAP operating expenses of about $295 million, and non‑GAAP operating margin in the lower‑40% range; non‑GAAP EPS is expected at $5.00 ± $0.20 based on a tax rate of ~16% and a non‑GAAP diluted share count of ~231 million shares (including ~3 million from the 2028 convertible), with other income/expense expected to remain relatively flat. Management also said free cash flow should improve further through the remainder of calendar 2026, fiscal‑year capex is expected to stay in the 4%–6% of revenue range, and net leverage is expected to continue declining as debt reduction and profitability progress.Seagate Tech Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
36
Negative
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 11.01B | 9.10B | 6.55B | 7.38B | 11.66B | 10.68B |
| Gross Profit | 4.57B | 3.20B | 1.54B | 1.42B | 3.47B | 2.92B |
| EBITDA | 3.38B | 2.08B | 1.04B | 330.00M | 2.38B | 1.97B |
| Net Income | 2.38B | 1.47B | 335.00M | -529.00M | 1.65B | 1.31B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 8.89B | 8.02B | 7.74B | 7.56B | 8.94B | 8.68B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.15B | 891.00M | 1.36B | 786.00M | 617.00M | 1.21B |
| Total Debt | 4.18B | 5.00B | 5.67B | 5.83B | 5.70B | 5.19B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.80B | 8.48B | 9.23B | 8.76B | 8.84B | 8.04B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.09B | -453.00M | -1.49B | -1.20B | 109.00M | 631.00M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.63B | 818.00M | 664.00M | 626.00M | 1.28B | 1.13B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.88B | 1.08B | 918.00M | 942.00M | 1.66B | 1.63B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -499.00M | -276.00M | 126.00M | 217.00M | -352.00M | -466.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.05B | -1.27B | -473.00M | -988.00M | -1.90B | -1.67B |
Seagate Tech Technical Analysis
Neutral
547.75
Price Trends
834.48
Positive
629.27
Positive
452.84
Positive
Market Momentum
39.78
Positive
49.23
Neutral
26.25
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 547.75 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 956.44, below the 50-day MA of 834.48, and above the 200-day MA of 452.84, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 39.78 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.25 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for STX.
Seagate Tech Risk Analysis
Seagate Tech disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Seagate Tech reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Seagate Tech Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $206.25B | 32.02 | 91.94% | 0.18% | -18.43% | 242.76% | |
75 Outperform | $31.29B | 24.66 | 114.18% | 1.89% | 5.29% | 10.66% | |
72 Outperform | $205.21B | 83.12 | 916.38% | 1.02% | 28.92% | 55.56% | |
71 Outperform | $275.68B | 33.22 | -363.24% | 1.45% | 38.87% | 99.71% | |
65 Neutral | $21.49B | 8.49 | -473.44% | 5.09% | 7.20% | 4.12% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% |
* Technology Sector Average
STX
Seagate Tech
915.19
764.50
507.31%
HPQ
HP
22.02
-2.57
-10.44%
NTAP
NetApp
156.38
50.81
48.13%
WDC
Western Digital
598.37
532.77
812.12%
DELL
Dell Technologies
425.25
303.62
249.63%
Seagate Tech Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Seagate Tech Announces Redemption of Exchangeable Senior Notes
Positive
Jun 12, 2026
On June 11–12, 2026, Seagate Technology and its subsidiary Seagate HDD Cayman announced that Seagate HDD had called for the redemption of all outstanding 3.50% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2028. The move forms part of a capital structure ad...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Seagate Tech Retires Exchangeable Notes, Adjusts Capital Structure
Neutral
May 28, 2026
On May 27, 2026, Seagate Technology Holdings and its subsidiary Seagate HDD Cayman closed previously arranged, privately negotiated exchanges of $185.908 million principal amount of Seagate HDD’s 3.50% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2028 for ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Seagate Tech Announces Exchange of 2028 Senior Notes
Neutral
May 21, 2026
On May 20, 2026, Seagate Technology Holdings plc and its subsidiary Seagate HDD Cayman entered into privately negotiated exchange agreements with a limited number of holders of Seagate HDD’s 3.50% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2028. The comp...
Executive/Board Changes
Seagate Announces Retirement of Longtime Board Leader Cannon
Neutral
May 6, 2026
On May 5, 2026, Seagate announced that longtime director Michael R. Cannon will not stand for re-election and will retire from the Board at the conclusion of his current term in October 2026, after serving since 2011, including roles as Lead Indep...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Seagate Reports Strong Q3 Rebound and AI-Driven Outlook
Positive
Apr 28, 2026
On April 28 and 29, 2026, Seagate announced fiscal third-quarter 2026 results that showed a sharp rebound in performance, with revenue rising to $3.11 billion, GAAP gross margin reaching 46.5%, and GAAP diluted EPS climbing to $3.27, alongside nea...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.