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Seagate Tech (STX)
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Seagate Tech (STX) AI Stock Analysis

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STX

Seagate Tech

(NASDAQ:STX)

Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$166.00
▲(6.59% Upside)
Seagate Tech demonstrates strong financial recovery and technical momentum, underpinned by strategic advancements in technology and shareholder-friendly actions like buybacks. However, financial risks due to high leverage need ongoing management.
Positive Factors
Cloud demand
Driven by strong global cloud demand, Seagate posted upside results for the June quarter.
Financial performance
Seagate's F2025 non-GAAP gross margin of 35.8% reflects a favorable product mix and pricing actions.
Revenue growth
Seagate's revenue in the Americas showed a significant year-over-year increase of 91%.
Negative Factors
Corporate tax rate
The Pillar Two framework for the global minimum tax beginning in FY26 is expected to significantly raise Seagate’s corporate tax rate to a mid-teen percent.
Earnings transparency
Seagate did not disclose its sales by channel with its earnings release starting F1Q25, which could reduce transparency for investors.
Revenue concentration risk
Seagate exited F2025 with one customer accounting for approximately 10% of the year's revenue, indicating a potential risk of revenue concentration.

Seagate Tech (STX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Seagate Tech Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSeagate Technology Holdings plc provides data storage technology and solutions in Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and internationally. It provides mass capacity storage products, including enterprise nearline hard disk drives (HDDs), enterprise nearline solid state drives (SSDs), enterprise nearline systems, video and image HDDs, and network-attached storage drives. The company also offers legacy applications comprising Mission Critical HDDs and SSDs; external storage solutions under the Seagate Ultra Touch, One Touch, and Expansion product lines, as well as under the LaCie brand name; desktop drives; notebook drives, DVR HDDs, and gaming SSDs. In addition, it provides Lyve edge-to-cloud mass capacity platform. The company sells its products primarily to OEMs, distributors, and retailers. Seagate Technology Holdings plc was founded in 1978 and is based in Dublin, Ireland.
How the Company Makes MoneySeagate Technology generates revenue through the sale of its data storage products, primarily hard disk drives (HDDs) and solid-state drives (SSDs). The company's revenue streams are driven by sales to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), distributors, and retailers, which supply Seagate's products to end consumers, businesses, and data centers around the world. Seagate also invests in research and development to enhance its product offerings, ensuring they meet the evolving needs of the market. Key partnerships with technology companies and data center operators further bolster Seagate's earnings by facilitating the integration and adoption of its storage solutions in large-scale and cloud environments.

Seagate Tech Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue Share by Channel
Revenue Share by Channel
Reveals the distribution of sales across various sales channels, indicating the company's reliance on certain sales strategies and potential areas for expansion.
Chart InsightsSeagate's OEM channel has shown a strong upward trend, peaking in 2024, while distributors and retailers have seen a decline. The earnings call highlights robust revenue and profit growth, driven by mass capacity storage demand and successful HAMR technology ramp-up. Despite a sequential revenue dip due to supply constraints, the company remains optimistic, projecting significant revenue and EPS growth. This strategic focus on OEMs and mass capacity aligns with their positive outlook, suggesting a potential shift in channel strategy to capitalize on high-demand segments.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Seagate Tech Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: 2.00%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a strong performance for fiscal 2025, with significant revenue growth and advancements in HAMR technology. While there are challenges such as the global minimum tax and production capacity allocation for new product qualifications, the company's outlook remains positive with expected continued demand in cloud and edge markets.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Seagate closed fiscal 2025 with 30% year-over-year revenue growth for the June quarter and record gross margins, which improved for a ninth consecutive quarter. Revenue for the fiscal year increased 39%, with non-GAAP gross profit nearly doubling and operating profit more than tripling.
HAMR Technology Progress
Seagate began the high-volume ramp of two new nearline platforms, including the industry's first heat-assisted magnetic recording (HAMR) hard drive. This is expected to support growth, with multiple CSPs qualifying the technology.
Cloud Demand and Nearline Product Success
Strong global cloud demand, with visibility into nearline exabyte production capacity being largely spoken for through the next calendar year. Record quarterly sales and volume shipments for nearline products were achieved.
Positive Outlook for Fiscal 2026
Seagate expects to resume share repurchases, reflecting confidence in improving profitability and cash generation. The company is positioned to capture growth opportunities in the cloud and at the edge with its HAMR-based technology.
Negative Updates
Global Minimum Tax Impact
Starting in fiscal 2026, Seagate will be subject to a global minimum tax rate in the mid-teens, impacting non-GAAP EPS.
Continued Qualification and Transition Challenges
The need to allocate production capacity for customer qualifications of new HAMR products may limit short-term exabyte output.
Potential Tariff-Related Impacts
Seagate is mindful of evolving trade policy landscapes, although they expect minimal impacts based on the current outlook.
Company Guidance
During the Seagate Technology fiscal fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 conference call, the company reported a robust performance with a 30% year-over-year revenue increase for the June quarter and a 39% rise for the fiscal year. Notably, Seagate achieved record gross margins that improved for the ninth consecutive quarter, driven by the growing adoption of heat-assisted magnetic recording (HAMR) technology. The company reported non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $2.59 for the quarter and $8.10 for the fiscal year, reflecting strong free cash flow generation. Seagate's fiscal year-end results were marked by a near doubling of non-GAAP gross profit dollars and a more than tripling of operating profit, indicating strong supply-demand alignment and cost discipline. Looking forward, Seagate anticipates further revenue growth, profitability, and cash generation in fiscal 2026, with the resumption of share repurchases planned for later in the quarter. The company also highlighted strong global cloud demand and the ongoing ramp-up of HAMR-based products, with expectations to qualify key global cloud service provider customers by mid-calendar 2026. Additionally, Seagate plans to increase its mass capacity shipments and maintain capital discipline with targeted capital expenditures within 4% to 6% of revenue for fiscal 2026.

Seagate Tech Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Seagate Tech exhibits strong revenue growth and profitability recovery, with a robust gross profit margin and cash flow generation. However, the high leverage and negative equity are significant risks that need addressing.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Seagate Tech demonstrates a strong gross profit margin of 33.8% TTM, indicating effective cost management. The net profit margin improved significantly to 17.5% TTM from previous losses, highlighting a return to profitability. Revenue growth rate is robust at 30.3% TTM, showcasing strong sales growth. EBIT and EBITDA margins are strong at 19.1% and 24.8% TTM, respectively, reflecting operational efficiency and profitability.
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
The balance sheet shows challenges with a negative stockholders' equity due to high total debt, resulting in a weak debt-to-equity ratio that implies significant leverage risk. The equity ratio is negative, reflecting financial instability. However, the company has managed to reduce its net debt over time, which is a positive sign of improving financial health.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Seagate Tech's free cash flow growth rate is 16.4% TTM, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 0.68, suggesting good cash conversion from earnings. Free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.52, reflecting effective capital expenditure management and the ability to generate substantial free cash flow relative to net income.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue8.54B6.55B7.38B11.66B10.68B10.51B
Gross Profit2.89B1.55B1.35B3.47B2.92B2.84B
EBITDA2.12B1.03B301.00M2.41B1.90B1.76B
Net Income1.49B335.00M-529.00M1.65B1.31B1.00B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets7.56B7.74B7.56B8.94B8.68B8.93B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments814.00M1.36B786.00M615.00M1.21B1.72B
Total Debt5.15B6.07B5.45B5.65B5.14B4.17B
Total Liabilities8.39B9.23B8.76B8.84B8.04B7.14B
Stockholders Equity-829.00M-1.49B-1.20B109.00M631.00M1.79B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow773.00M664.00M626.00M1.28B1.13B1.13B
Operating Cash Flow1.01B918.00M942.00M1.66B1.63B1.71B
Investing Cash Flow137.00M126.00M217.00M-352.00M-466.00M-635.00M
Financing Cash Flow-1.13B-473.00M-988.00M-1.90B-1.67B-1.60B

Seagate Tech Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price155.73
Price Trends
50DMA
143.41
Positive
100DMA
117.08
Positive
200DMA
105.91
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
3.30
Positive
RSI
60.50
Neutral
STOCH
85.51
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 155.73 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 151.82, above the 50-day MA of 143.41, and above the 200-day MA of 105.91, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.30 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 60.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.51 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for STX.

Seagate Tech Risk Analysis

Seagate Tech disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Seagate Tech reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Seagate Tech Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$21.57B18.99108.51%1.90%5.02%22.19%
76
Outperform
$33.12B23.00-109.27%1.84%38.86%337.22%
72
Outperform
$26.60B16.6622.57%0.13%2.12%
71
Outperform
$27.71B27.8017.90%47.04%-17.89%
71
Outperform
$19.42B160.259.76%10.85%30.85%
65
Neutral
$25.29B10.3884.33%4.25%2.08%-12.41%
61
Neutral
€6.51B18.073.81%2.08%2.67%-29.74%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
STX
Seagate Tech
155.73
56.77
57.37%
HPQ
HP
26.93
-7.64
-22.10%
NTAP
NetApp
109.56
-18.36
-14.35%
SMCI
Super Micro Computer
45.49
-17.39
-27.66%
WDC
Western Digital
76.24
27.93
57.81%
PSTG
Pure Storage
57.85
-4.57
-7.32%

Seagate Tech Corporate Events

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Seagate Tech Reports Strong Fiscal 2025 Results
Positive
Jul 30, 2025

Seagate Technology announced strong financial results for fiscal 2025, with a 30% year-over-year revenue growth in the June quarter and record gross margins. The company attributed its success to the adoption of HAMR technology and a robust product pipeline, positioning it well for continued profitability and cash generation in fiscal 2026. Seagate’s strategic focus on cloud and edge data centers, driven by AI and data sovereignty trends, underpins its growth prospects. The company plans to resume share repurchases, reflecting confidence in its future performance, and is advancing its HAMR-based technology to meet increasing demand for mass data storage.

The most recent analyst rating on (STX) stock is a Buy with a $120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Seagate Tech stock, see the STX Stock Forecast page.

DividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Seagate Tech Reports Strong Q4 2025 Financial Results
Positive
Jul 29, 2025

On July 29, 2025, Seagate Technology announced its fiscal fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 financial results, highlighting a 30% year-over-year revenue increase and record gross margins. The company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.72 per share, payable on October 9, 2025, and reported significant cash flow and debt reduction achievements. Seagate’s strong performance reflects structural enhancements and ongoing demand from cloud customers, positioning the company for future growth in mass data storage.

The most recent analyst rating on (STX) stock is a Buy with a $125.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Seagate Tech stock, see the STX Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Seagate Tech Appoints CEO Dave Mosley as Chairman
Positive
Jul 28, 2025

On July 28, 2025, Seagate Technology announced that CEO Dave Mosley will become the Chairman of the Board following the company’s 2025 Annual General Meeting, succeeding Michael R. Cannon, who will become Lead Independent Director. This leadership change reflects the Board’s confidence in Mosley’s strategic vision and aims to guide Seagate through its next phase of growth, leveraging his extensive experience and leadership to drive innovation in data storage technology.

The most recent analyst rating on (STX) stock is a Buy with a $125.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Seagate Tech stock, see the STX Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Seagate Tech Completes Senior Notes Exchange Offers
Positive
Jun 30, 2025

On June 27, 2025, Seagate Technology Holdings plc announced the completion of its exchange offers and consent solicitations for its senior notes, which involved exchanging old notes for new ones issued by Seagate Data Storage Technology Pte. Ltd. This move, finalized on June 30, 2025, involved significant amendments to the indentures governing the old notes, including the elimination of restrictive covenants and certain default provisions. The successful exchange and amendments are expected to streamline Seagate’s financial structure and enhance its market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (STX) stock is a Buy with a $110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Seagate Tech stock, see the STX Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Seagate Tech Redeems Senior Notes in Debt Restructuring
Neutral
Jun 16, 2025

On June 11, 2025, Seagate HDD Cayman, a subsidiary of Seagate Technology Holdings, redeemed all its outstanding 4.875% Senior Notes due 2027, effectively satisfying all obligations under the related indenture. The company also announced early results and amendments to its exchange offers for eight series of senior notes, aiming to exchange them for new notes issued by Seagate Data Storage Technology Pte. Ltd. This move is part of a strategic financial restructuring to improve the company’s debt profile, potentially impacting stakeholders by altering the terms of existing debt agreements.

The most recent analyst rating on (STX) stock is a Buy with a $110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Seagate Tech stock, see the STX Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Seagate Tech Announces Exchange Offer for Outstanding Notes
Neutral
May 28, 2025

On May 27, 2025, Seagate Data Storage Technology Pte. Ltd., a subsidiary of Seagate Technology Holdings, issued $400 million in 5.875% Senior Notes due 2030. These notes are guaranteed by Seagate and its subsidiaries, and the issuance is part of a strategic financial maneuver to manage and optimize its debt structure. Additionally, on May 28, 2025, Seagate announced an exchange offer for eight series of outstanding notes issued by Seagate HDD Cayman, aiming to replace them with new notes issued by Seagate Data Storage Technology. This move is intended to streamline Seagate’s financial operations and potentially improve its market positioning by consolidating its debt under a single issuer.

The most recent analyst rating on (STX) stock is a Buy with a $110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Seagate Tech stock, see the STX Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Seagate Tech Announces $5 Billion Share Buyback
Positive
May 22, 2025

On May 21, 2025, Seagate Technology Holdings plc announced the approval of a $5 billion share repurchase program by its board of directors. This move is part of the company’s strategy to enhance shareholder value and reflects its strong financial position. The repurchase program is flexible, allowing for various methods of share acquisition, and does not have an expiration date. The company is also hosting an analyst and investor day in New York City to discuss this approval and outline new financial targets through fiscal year 2028.

The most recent analyst rating on (STX) stock is a Buy with a $110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Seagate Tech stock, see the STX Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Seagate Tech Announces $400M Senior Notes Offering
Neutral
May 13, 2025

On May 12, 2025, Seagate Technology Holdings plc announced that its subsidiary, Seagate Data Storage Technology Pte. Ltd., entered into a purchase agreement to issue and sell $400 million of 5.875% Senior Notes due 2030. The offering, expected to close on May 27, 2025, aims to finance the redemption of Seagate HDD Cayman’s outstanding 4.875% Senior Notes due 2027. This move is part of Seagate’s strategy to manage its debt obligations effectively, potentially impacting its financial stability and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (STX) stock is a Buy with a $110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Seagate Tech stock, see the STX Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Seagate Tech Announces $400M Senior Notes Offering
Neutral
May 12, 2025

On May 12, 2025, Seagate Technology Holdings plc announced a private offering of $400 million in senior notes due 2030 through its subsidiary, Seagate Data Storage Technology Pte. Ltd. The proceeds, along with cash on hand, will be used to redeem all outstanding 4.875% Senior Notes due 2027, which is conditional upon receiving sufficient net proceeds from financing transactions. This move is part of Seagate’s strategic financial management to optimize its debt structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (STX) stock is a Buy with a $110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Seagate Tech stock, see the STX Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Seagate Tech Director Judy Bruner to Step Down
Neutral
May 8, 2025

On May 2, 2025, Judy Bruner informed Seagate Technology’s Board of Directors that she will not seek re-election at the 2025 Annual General Meeting. Her decision is not due to any disagreements with the company, and she will remain a director until the meeting concludes. The Board expressed gratitude for her contributions.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 31, 2025