Seagate Tech (STX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $86.36B
• Dividend Yield: 1.02%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.43M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 46.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.97
• Revenue Growth: 31.56%
• EPS Growth: 106.00%
• Country: US
• Employees: 30,000
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Computer Hardware
• EPS (TTM): 3.11
• Shares Outstanding: 218,073,070
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,087,998
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,434,809
• PEG Ratio: 0.06
• Price to Book (P/B): -66.19
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.30
• P/FCF Ratio: 36.66
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.11
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 9.49
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 24.56
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 34.89
• 1Y Price Target: $445.81
• Price Target Upside: 12.57% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 17
• EPS Forecast (FY): 12.93
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $11.53B

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $467.00 ▲(17.92% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/20/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/20/26

STX scores 70 mainly due to strong technical momentum and upbeat earnings-call guidance alongside solid profitability and free-cash-flow generation. The score is held back by weaker balance-sheet quality (limited equity cushion) and a relatively expensive valuation (high P/E and low yield), which increase risk if demand, pricing, or execution (HAMR ramp) disappoints.

Positive Factors

Free cash flow generation

Sustained FCF near $2B provides durable financial flexibility to fund R&D, retire debt, and return capital. Strong cash conversion supports investment in HAMR ramps and liquidity cushions the company through industry cycles, reducing reliance on external financing over the next several quarters.

HAMR technology roadmap and ramps

Successful HAMR qualifications and early volume shipments create a sustainable technology advantage for high-capacity nearline drives. If execution continues, higher areal density should lower cost/TB and cement Seagate's leadership for cloud customers over the next 2–6 months and into longer-term contracts.

Data-center leadership and exabyte volume growth

Large, growing exabyte shipments to hyperscalers indicate durable demand from cloud providers. Dominant nearline share and increasing avg drive capacity sustain revenue per customer and create scale advantages in manufacturing and customer lock‑in over ensuing quarters.

Negative Factors

Weak balance-sheet equity cushion

A historically thin or negative equity base limits the firm's balance-sheet shock absorption and increases perceived financial risk. In the event of a demand downturn or execution hiccup, leverage and covenant flexibility could constrain capital allocation and raise refinancing or liquidity pressures.

Customer concentration risk

Heavy reliance on a small set of hyperscalers amplifies revenue volatility and negotiation leverage held by large customers. Contract renewals, pricing terms, or demand pacing by a few CSPs could materially affect revenue and utilization for multiple quarters ahead.

Manufacturing and HAMR transition execution risk

Rapid product-node transitions intensify manufacturing complexity; missed yields or qualification delays can constrain exabyte supply and raise cost/TB. Execution slippage on HAMR ramps would weaken margins and revenue visibility across the next several quarters given tight capacity planning.

Seagate Tech Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Seagate Technology Holdings plc provides data storage technology and solutions in Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and internationally. It provides mass capacity storage products, including enterprise nearline hard disk drives (HDDs), enterprise nearline solid state drives (SSDs), enterprise nearline systems, video and image HDDs, and network-attached storage drives. The company also offers legacy applications comprising Mission Critical HDDs and SSDs; external storage solutions under the Seagate Ultra Touch, One Touch, and Expansion product lines, as well as under the LaCie brand name; desktop drives; notebook drives, DVR HDDs, and gaming SSDs. In addition, it provides Lyve edge-to-cloud mass capacity platform. The company sells its products primarily to OEMs, distributors, and retailers. Seagate Technology Holdings plc was founded in 1978 and is based in Dublin, Ireland.

How the Company Makes Money

Seagate generates revenue through the sale of its data storage products, which include HDDs and SSDs, targeting different customer segments such as enterprises, cloud service providers, and individual consumers. The company’s primary revenue streams are derived from the direct sale of these storage devices, as well as from providing related services, such as data recovery and cloud storage solutions. Significant partnerships with major cloud computing companies and OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers) enhance its market presence and contribute to steady demand. Additionally, Seagate invests in research and development to innovate and improve its product offerings, ensuring competitive pricing and performance, which further drives its revenue growth.

Seagate Tech Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating results and cash generation are strong in the current upcycle (healthy margins and ~$1.9B TTM free cash flow), but balance-sheet resilience is a clear weakness due to thin/negative equity history and a still-levered capital structure, increasing downside risk if the cycle turns.

Income Statement

Profitability has rebounded strongly: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is up (~5.2%) with solid gross margin (~36.9%) and net margin (~17.9%). The company has also recovered materially from the 2023 downcycle (loss-making year) to healthy profits in 2024–TTM, showing improving operating leverage. Key weakness is volatility across the cycle—revenue and earnings swung sharply from 2022 strength to 2023 weakness, which increases forecasting risk.

Balance Sheet

Balance sheet quality is the main concern. Equity has been negative in multiple years (2023–2025), and leverage metrics are distorted by the low/negative equity base, signaling limited balance-sheet cushion. While TTM total debt appears much lower than prior annual periods, the overall capital structure still screens as higher risk given the thin/negative equity history and inconsistent reported leverage.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength. TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow (~$2.0B) and free cash flow (~$1.9B) are strong, with very large free-cash-flow growth (~55.7%). Free cash flow is substantial relative to net income (about ~80%), supporting financial flexibility. A watch item is that cash flow coverage metrics remain moderate rather than exceptional, so sustaining this pace through the next demand downturn is the key risk.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	10.06B	9.10B	6.55B	7.38B	11.66B	10.68B
Gross Profit	3.89B	3.20B	1.54B	1.42B	3.47B	2.92B
EBITDA	2.74B	2.08B	1.04B	330.00M	2.38B	1.97B
Net Income	1.97B	1.47B	335.00M	-529.00M	1.65B	1.31B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.71B	8.02B	7.74B	7.56B	8.94B	8.68B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.05B	891.00M	1.36B	786.00M	617.00M	1.21B
Total Debt	4.50B	5.37B	5.67B	5.83B	5.70B	5.19B
Total Liabilities	8.25B	8.48B	9.23B	8.76B	8.84B	8.04B
Stockholders Equity	459.00M	-453.00M	-1.49B	-1.20B	109.00M	631.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.90B	818.00M	664.00M	626.00M	1.28B	1.13B
Operating Cash Flow	2.02B	1.08B	918.00M	942.00M	1.66B	1.63B
Investing Cash Flow	-344.00M	-276.00M	126.00M	217.00M	-352.00M	-466.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.87B	-1.27B	-473.00M	-988.00M	-1.90B	-1.67B

Seagate Tech Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 396.02
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 396.02 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 417.45, above the 50-day MA of 349.51, and above the 200-day MA of 226.07, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 16.36 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.11 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for STX.

Seagate Tech Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WDC	79 Outperform	$91.73B	28.15	41.27%	0.18%	-16.35%	316.56%
STX	70 Outperform	$86.36B	46.07	―	1.02%	31.56%	106.00%
NTAP	70 Outperform	$19.78B	17.50	125.35%	1.89%	2.64%	4.12%
DELL	65 Neutral	$79.38B	15.89	―	1.45%	10.81%	31.67%
PSTG	64 Neutral	$22.36B	178.78	9.27%	―	13.18%	-0.92%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
HPQ	57 Neutral	$16.71B	6.91	―	5.09%	4.09%	-5.77%

Seagate Tech Corporate Events

Seagate Tech Executes Private Exchange to Retire Debt

On February 19, 2026, Seagate Technology Holdings plc announced it had closed previously arranged private exchanges of $600 million principal amount of 3.50% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2028 issued by its Seagate HDD Cayman unit. In return, the company delivered roughly $599.2 million in cash and about 5.95 million ordinary shares, with the share count set over a one-day pricing window beginning February 12, 2026.

The exchanges, which were completed between February 17 and 19, 2026, resulted in the retirement of the $600 million in exchanged notes, leaving approximately $400 million of the notes still outstanding on unchanged terms. By partially retiring its exchangeable debt through a mix of cash and equity, Seagate has adjusted its capital structure in a way that reduces future obligations while modestly diluting shareholders, potentially improving balance sheet flexibility ahead of the 2028 maturity.

The transactions were executed as private placements with a limited number of noteholders under an exemption from registration requirements, underscoring continued use of tailored liability management strategies in the corporate debt market. For investors and creditors, the move signals active management of Seagate’s financing profile, balancing leverage reduction with equity issuance to support long-term financial stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (STX) stock is a Buy with a $475.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Seagate Tech stock, see the STX Stock Forecast page.

Seagate Tech Announces Private Exchange of Senior Notes

On February 11, 2026, Seagate Technology Holdings and its subsidiary Seagate HDD Cayman entered privately negotiated exchange agreements with a limited number of holders of Seagate HDD’s 3.50% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2028 to exchange $600 million in principal. The deal provides these investors with approximately $599.2 million in cash plus a to-be-determined number of Seagate ordinary shares, based on pricing over a single trading day starting February 12, 2026.

The exchanges are structured as private placements and are expected to close on or about February 17, 2026, subject to customary conditions, after which the exchanged notes will be retired. Seagate HDD anticipates that about $400 million of the notes will remain outstanding on unchanged terms, a move that adjusts the company’s debt profile and signals ongoing balance-sheet management that could affect both its financing costs and shareholder dilution.

The most recent analyst rating on (STX) stock is a Hold with a $440.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Seagate Tech stock, see the STX Stock Forecast page.

Seagate Tech posts strong Q2 results, boosts shareholder returns

On January 28, 2026, Seagate Technology reported strong fiscal second-quarter 2026 results for the period ended January 2, 2026, with revenue rising to $2.83 billion from $2.33 billion a year earlier, GAAP gross margin expanding to 41.6%, and GAAP diluted EPS increasing to $2.60, while non-GAAP EPS reached $3.11. The company highlighted record gross and operating margins and attributed the outperformance to robust data center demand and the ramp-up of its HAMR-based Mozaic products, underscoring its positioning in high-capacity storage for AI-driven data growth. Seagate generated $723 million in operating cash flow and $607 million in free cash flow during the quarter, used $500 million to retire exchangeable senior notes due 2028, and returned $154 million to shareholders via dividends, ending the quarter with $1.0 billion in cash and 218 million shares outstanding. On January 27, 2026, the board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.74 per share, payable on April 8, 2026 to shareholders of record on March 25, 2026, signaling continued capital returns alongside investment in its areal-density-driven roadmap and reinforcing its financial strength and shareholder-focused capital allocation.

The most recent analyst rating on (STX) stock is a Buy with a $400.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Seagate Tech stock, see the STX Stock Forecast page.