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Seagate Tech
(NASDAQ:STX)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$945.00
â–²(10.96% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/31/26
STX scores well primarily due to strong financial recovery and cash generation, reinforced by a highly constructive earnings call with confident forward guidance, margin expansion expectations, and debt-reduction plans. Offsetting this are balance-sheet risk (including recent negative equity history) and a demanding valuation (P/E 51.68), while technical signals are mixed with limited momentum data provided.
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow Strength
Seagate’s FCF recovery is durable: FY26 free cash flow matched net income and rose materially, enabling debt retirement, dividends and buybacks while funding modest 4–6% of revenue CapEx. Strong cash conversion improves flexibility across hardware cycles and supports capital allocation.
Negative Factors
Customer Concentration
Heavy reliance on a small set of hyperscalers concentrates revenue and exposes Seagate to cyclical capex swings, contract timing and renegotiation risk. This concentration amplifies downside in a cloud spending slowdown and limits diversification resilience across cycles.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Strength
Seagate’s FCF recovery is durable: FY26 free cash flow matched net income and rose materially, enabling debt retirement, dividends and buybacks while funding modest 4–6% of revenue CapEx. Strong cash conversion improves flexibility across hardware cycles and supports capital allocation.
Read all positive factors
Seagate Tech Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Highlights income from different business areas, showing which segments drive growth and profitability for Seagate Tech.
Highlights income from different business areas, showing which segments drive growth and profitability for Seagate Tech.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlySeagate Tech (STX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$199.04B
Dividend Yield0.32%
Average Volume (3M)4.94M
Price to Earnings (P/E)63.4
Beta (1Y)2.04
Revenue Growth34.06%
EPS Growth108.45%
CountryUS
Employees30,000
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryComputer Hardware
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)14.54
Shares Outstanding226,644,520
10 Day Avg. Volume5,183,396
30 Day Avg. Volume4,938,873
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.51
Price to Book (P/B)82.89
Price to Sales (P/S)14.73
P/FCF Ratio57.85
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$1,119.58Price Target Upside31.45% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering20
EPS Forecast (FY)35.66
Revenue Forecast (FY)$18.55B
Seagate Tech Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Seagate Technology Holdings plc, headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, is a global provider of advanced data storage technology and solutions, with operations spanning Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and other international regions. The...
How the Company Makes Money
Seagate primarily makes money by selling data storage hardware, with revenue largely driven by shipment volumes and pricing (average selling price) of its products. The company’s biggest revenue stream is typically mass-capacity HDDs sold into the...
Seagate Tech Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presents a strongly positive operational and financial picture: robust revenue and exabyte growth, sizable margin expansion, record free cash flow, meaningful debt reduction and clear progress on HAMR/Mozaic technology ramps. Management issued confident guidance for further sequential revenue and margin improvement. Offsetting risks are short‑term factory and yield inefficiencies during product transitions, upstream component and supply‑chain complexity as HAMR scales, customer concentration in cloud/data‑center demand, and the potential for quarter‑to‑quarter pricing variability tied to contract timing and renegotiations. On balance, the company’s achievements, guidance and execution momentum outweigh the execution and concentration risks noted.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Performance and Upbeat Guidance
June quarter revenue of $3.6B (+17% sequential, +48% year‑over‑year). Fiscal 2026 revenue grew 34% year‑over‑year. September quarter revenue guide of $4.1B ± $100M (midpoint implies ~56% YoY growth). Management expects sequential revenue growth throughout fiscal 2027.
Negative Updates
Factory Complexity and Transitional Inefficiencies
Product transitions (3→4→5 TB per disk) require factory pauses, longer cycle times and can create yield issues and temporary inefficiencies. Management noted factories must pause for transitions and that ramp/yield dynamics can cause short‑term production constraints.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Performance and Upbeat Guidance
June quarter revenue of $3.6B (+17% sequential, +48% year‑over‑year). Fiscal 2026 revenue grew 34% year‑over‑year. September quarter revenue guide of $4.1B ± $100M (midpoint implies ~56% YoY growth). Management expects sequential revenue growth throughout fiscal 2027.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Seagate guided September-quarter revenue of $4.1 billion ± $100 million (midpoint ≈ +56% YoY), non‑GAAP EPS of $7.30 ± $0.20 (based on a ~16% tax rate and ~231M diluted shares, including ~2M from 2028 convertibles), and non‑GAAP operating expenses of roughly $300M, implying an operating margin near 50% at the midpoint; management expects OI&E of ~$45M in the September quarter, CapEx for fiscal 2027 to remain in its 4–6% of revenue target (FY26 CapEx was 4.7%, June quarter CapEx $187M), and continued sequential revenue, margin and free‑cash‑flow expansion through fiscal 2027. They reiterated a mid‑20% nearline exabyte growth target over the next few years, noted HAMR represented ~40% of nearline exabyte run rate exiting FY26 with a goal for 50% of HAMR exabytes on Mozaic 4 by end‑calendar‑2026 and Mozaic 5 qualification shipments in late‑2027, said the vast majority of nearline exabytes are allocated into calendar 2028, and highlighted balance‑sheet actions (gross debt ~$3.6B exiting FY26, about $1.2B of debt retirement planned in the September quarter) alongside strong cash generation (June quarter FCF > $1.1B; FY26 FCF $3.1B) and ongoing share repurchases.Seagate Tech Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
81
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 12.20B | 9.10B | 6.55B | 7.38B | 11.66B |
| Gross Profit | 5.56B | 3.20B | 1.54B | 1.42B | 3.47B |
| EBITDA | 4.25B | 2.08B | 1.04B | 330.00M | 2.38B |
| Net Income | 3.18B | 1.47B | 335.00M | -529.00M | 1.65B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 9.97B | 8.02B | 7.74B | 7.56B | 8.94B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.70B | 891.00M | 1.36B | 786.00M | 617.00M |
| Total Debt | 3.86B | 5.00B | 5.67B | 5.83B | 5.70B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.80B | 8.48B | 9.23B | 8.76B | 8.84B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.17B | -453.00M | -1.49B | -1.20B | 109.00M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.10B | 818.00M | 664.00M | 626.00M | 1.28B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.67B | 1.08B | 918.00M | 942.00M | 1.66B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -525.00M | -276.00M | 126.00M | 217.00M | -352.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.34B | -1.27B | -473.00M | -988.00M | -1.90B |
Seagate Tech Technical Analysis
Positive
851.69
Price Trends
888.21
Positive
762.13
Positive
545.67
Positive
Market Momentum
-2.09
Negative
57.66
Neutral
67.24
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 851.69 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 839.62, below the 50-day MA of 888.21, and above the 200-day MA of 545.67, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -2.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.24 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for STX.
Seagate Tech Risk Analysis
Seagate Tech disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Seagate Tech reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Seagate Tech Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $39.65B | 31.88 | 114.18% | 1.22% | 5.29% | 10.66% | |
74 Outperform | $156.52B | 17.94 | 118.65% | 0.10% | -2.71% | 408.52% | |
72 Outperform | $199.04B | 63.37 | 348.17% | 0.35% | 34.06% | 108.45% | |
71 Outperform | $314.09B | 38.63 | -363.24% | 0.53% | 38.87% | 99.71% | |
65 Neutral | $26.78B | 11.42 | -473.44% | 4.62% | 7.20% | 4.12% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% |
* Technology Sector Average
STX
Seagate Tech
921.37
766.92
496.53%
HPQ
HP
31.30
5.69
22.19%
NTAP
NetApp
204.99
97.32
90.38%
WDC
Western Digital
487.29
411.26
540.89%
DELL
Dell Technologies
494.51
357.40
260.66%
Seagate Tech Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Seagate Tech Reports Strong Fiscal Q4 2026 Results
Positive
Jul 28, 2026
On July 29, 2026, Seagate Technology reported fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 revenue of $3.6 billion with GAAP gross margin of 52.3% and diluted EPS of $5.58, while full-year 2026 revenue climbed to $12.2 billion, up 34% year over year, with GAAP EPS ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Seagate Tech Announces Redemption of Exchangeable Senior Notes
Positive
Jun 12, 2026
On June 11–12, 2026, Seagate Technology and its subsidiary Seagate HDD Cayman announced that Seagate HDD had called for the redemption of all outstanding 3.50% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2028. The move forms part of a capital structure ad...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Seagate Tech Retires Exchangeable Notes, Adjusts Capital Structure
Neutral
May 28, 2026
On May 27, 2026, Seagate Technology Holdings and its subsidiary Seagate HDD Cayman closed previously arranged, privately negotiated exchanges of $185.908 million principal amount of Seagate HDD’s 3.50% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2028 for ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Seagate Tech Announces Exchange of 2028 Senior Notes
Neutral
May 21, 2026
On May 20, 2026, Seagate Technology Holdings plc and its subsidiary Seagate HDD Cayman entered into privately negotiated exchange agreements with a limited number of holders of Seagate HDD’s 3.50% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2028. The comp...
Executive/Board Changes
Seagate Announces Retirement of Longtime Board Leader Cannon
Neutral
May 6, 2026
On May 5, 2026, Seagate announced that longtime director Michael R. Cannon will not stand for re-election and will retire from the Board at the conclusion of his current term in October 2026, after serving since 2011, including roles as Lead Indep...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.