Seagate Tech (STX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $39.13B
• Dividend Yield: 1.52%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.37M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 27.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.72
• Revenue Growth: 38.86%
• EPS Growth: 337.22%
• Country: US
• Employees: 30,000
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Computer Hardware
• EPS (TTM): 2.59
• Shares Outstanding: 212,677,190
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,111,111
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,372,474
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.90
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.88
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.04
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 16.94
• 1Y Price Target: $168.11
• Price Target Upside: -10.66% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 18

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $183.00 ▼(-2.74% Downside)

Seagate Tech's overall stock score is driven by strong earnings call results and positive technical analysis, indicating a bullish outlook. Financial performance shows recovery but is hindered by leverage concerns. Valuation suggests the stock is moderately expensive. The company's strategic advancements and positive guidance for fiscal 2026 contribute significantly to the score.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Driven by strong global cloud demand, Seagate posted upside results for the June quarter.

Product Qualification

STX announced the HAMR qualification of its fourth major cloud customer, up from three prior, now specifically three from the U.S. and one outside; with plans to qualify the global top seven cloud providers.

Revenue Growth

Seagate's revenue in the Americas showed a significant year-over-year increase of 91%.

Negative Factors

Revenue Concentration Risk

Seagate exited F2025 with one customer accounting for approximately 10% of the year's revenue, indicating a potential risk of revenue concentration.

Tax Rate Impact

The Pillar Two framework for the global minimum tax beginning in FY26 is expected to significantly raise Seagate’s corporate tax rate to a mid-teen percent.

Transparency

Seagate did not disclose its sales by channel with its earnings release starting F1Q25, which could reduce transparency for investors.

Seagate Tech Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (STX) is a leading provider of data storage solutions, specializing in hard disk drives (HDDs), solid-state drives (SSDs), and storage systems. The company operates primarily in the data storage sector and serves a diverse range of markets, including consumer electronics, enterprise, cloud storage, and data centers. Seagate's core products include high-capacity HDDs for both personal and enterprise use, as well as a range of SSDs designed for performance-sensitive applications.

How the Company Makes Money

Seagate generates revenue primarily through the sale of its storage devices, including HDDs and SSDs, which are sold to various customer segments such as OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers), retailers, and direct consumers. The company benefits from a strong presence in the data center market, providing storage solutions that cater to the growing demand for cloud services and big data analytics. Key revenue streams include the sales of products for consumer applications, business storage solutions, and enterprise-grade storage systems. Additionally, Seagate has established significant partnerships with major tech firms and cloud service providers, enhancing its market reach and driving sales. The company's ability to innovate and adapt to changing technology trends also plays a crucial role in maintaining its revenue growth.

Seagate Tech Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Seagate Tech's financial performance shows a mixed picture. The income statement indicates revenue recovery and improved gross profit margins, but profitability remains moderate. The balance sheet highlights significant leverage and financial instability, posing risks. However, strong cash flow generation provides a cushion, supporting operations and potential debt servicing. Overall, while there are positive trends, the company needs to address its leverage to ensure long-term financial health.

Income Statement

Seagate Tech has shown a positive revenue growth rate of 6.52% in the latest year, recovering from previous declines. The gross profit margin improved to 35.18%, indicating better cost management. However, the net profit margin is moderate at 16.15%, and EBIT margin is not available, suggesting potential operational challenges. Overall, the income statement reflects a recovery trajectory with room for improvement in profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals significant leverage with a negative stockholders' equity, resulting in a high debt-to-equity ratio of -11.03. This indicates financial instability and potential risk. The return on equity is negative, reflecting losses in equity value. The equity ratio is not available due to negative equity, highlighting the need for financial restructuring.

Cash Flow

Seagate Tech's cash flow is strong, with a 40.10% growth in free cash flow, indicating improved liquidity. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.41, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.0, suggesting efficient cash generation relative to profits. The cash flow statement is a positive aspect of the company's financials, supporting operational needs.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	9.10B	9.10B	6.55B	7.38B	11.66B	10.68B
Gross Profit	3.20B	3.20B	1.54B	1.42B	3.47B	2.92B
EBITDA	2.08B	2.08B	1.04B	330.00M	2.38B	1.97B
Net Income	1.47B	1.47B	335.00M	-529.00M	1.65B	1.31B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.02B	8.02B	7.74B	7.56B	8.94B	8.68B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	891.00M	891.00M	1.36B	786.00M	617.00M	1.21B
Total Debt	5.00B	5.00B	5.67B	5.83B	5.70B	5.19B
Total Liabilities	8.48B	8.48B	9.23B	8.76B	8.84B	8.04B
Stockholders Equity	-453.00M	-453.00M	-1.49B	-1.20B	109.00M	631.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	818.00M	818.00M	664.00M	626.00M	1.28B	1.13B
Operating Cash Flow	1.08B	1.08B	918.00M	942.00M	1.66B	1.63B
Investing Cash Flow	-276.00M	-276.00M	126.00M	217.00M	-352.00M	-466.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.27B	-1.27B	-473.00M	-988.00M	-1.90B	-1.67B

Seagate Tech Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 188.16
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 188.16 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 163.44, above the 50-day MA of 154.53, and above the 200-day MA of 110.98, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 8.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 78.08 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 98.45 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for STX.

Seagate Tech Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NTAP	74 Outperform	$23.72B	21.00	123.00%	1.75%	3.45%	9.69%
WDC	74 Outperform	$31.39B	18.76	25.98%	0.22%	2.12%	―
HPQ	73 Outperform	$27.42B	10.68	84.33%	3.90%	3.11%	-3.54%
STX	72 Outperform	$39.13B	27.18	-109.27%	1.52%	38.86%	337.22%
SMCI	67 Neutral	$24.19B	24.35	17.90%	―	47.04%	-17.89%
PSTG	65 Neutral	$25.89B	194.57	10.04%	―	11.31%	-1.30%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$35.55B	8.88	-11.05%	1.87%	8.55%	-8.14%

Seagate Tech Corporate Events

Seagate Tech Appoints Thomas Szlosek to Board

On August 23, 2025, Seagate Technology appointed Thomas Szlosek to its Board of Directors and the Audit and Finance Committee. Szlosek, with over 30 years of financial leadership experience, is expected to enhance Seagate’s strategic direction with his expertise in diverse industries. This appointment reflects Seagate’s commitment to strengthening its governance and operational capabilities.

Seagate Tech Reports Strong Fiscal 2025 Results

Seagate Technology announced strong financial results for fiscal 2025, with a 30% year-over-year revenue growth in the June quarter and record gross margins. The company attributed its success to the adoption of HAMR technology and a robust product pipeline, positioning it well for continued profitability and cash generation in fiscal 2026. Seagate’s strategic focus on cloud and edge data centers, driven by AI and data sovereignty trends, underpins its growth prospects. The company plans to resume share repurchases, reflecting confidence in its future performance, and is advancing its HAMR-based technology to meet increasing demand for mass data storage.

Seagate Tech Reports Strong Q4 2025 Financial Results

On July 29, 2025, Seagate Technology announced its fiscal fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 financial results, highlighting a 30% year-over-year revenue increase and record gross margins. The company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.72 per share, payable on October 9, 2025, and reported significant cash flow and debt reduction achievements. Seagate’s strong performance reflects structural enhancements and ongoing demand from cloud customers, positioning the company for future growth in mass data storage.

Seagate Tech Appoints CEO Dave Mosley as Chairman

On July 28, 2025, Seagate Technology announced that CEO Dave Mosley will become the Chairman of the Board following the company’s 2025 Annual General Meeting, succeeding Michael R. Cannon, who will become Lead Independent Director. This leadership change reflects the Board’s confidence in Mosley’s strategic vision and aims to guide Seagate through its next phase of growth, leveraging his extensive experience and leadership to drive innovation in data storage technology.

Seagate Tech Completes Senior Notes Exchange Offers

On June 27, 2025, Seagate Technology Holdings plc announced the completion of its exchange offers and consent solicitations for its senior notes, which involved exchanging old notes for new ones issued by Seagate Data Storage Technology Pte. Ltd. This move, finalized on June 30, 2025, involved significant amendments to the indentures governing the old notes, including the elimination of restrictive covenants and certain default provisions. The successful exchange and amendments are expected to streamline Seagate’s financial structure and enhance its market positioning.

Seagate Tech Redeems Senior Notes in Debt Restructuring

On June 11, 2025, Seagate HDD Cayman, a subsidiary of Seagate Technology Holdings, redeemed all its outstanding 4.875% Senior Notes due 2027, effectively satisfying all obligations under the related indenture. The company also announced early results and amendments to its exchange offers for eight series of senior notes, aiming to exchange them for new notes issued by Seagate Data Storage Technology Pte. Ltd. This move is part of a strategic financial restructuring to improve the company’s debt profile, potentially impacting stakeholders by altering the terms of existing debt agreements.