Seagate Tech (STX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $91.29B
• Dividend Yield: 1.02%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.99M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 50.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.97
• Revenue Growth: 31.56%
• EPS Growth: 106.00%
• Country: US
• Employees: 30,000
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Computer Hardware
• EPS (TTM): 3.11
• Shares Outstanding: 218,073,070
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,788,300
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,987,902
• PEG Ratio: 0.06
• Price to Book (P/B): -66.19
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.30
• P/FCF Ratio: 36.66
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.01
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 9.13
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 23.64
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 33.58
• 1Y Price Target: $438.12
• Price Target Upside: 4.66% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 18
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $483.00 ▲(15.38% Upside)

STX scores higher on improving fundamentals and strong cash generation, reinforced by upbeat guidance and record operating performance in the latest earnings call. The score is tempered by balance-sheet risk (thin/negative equity history), an overbought technical setup, and a demanding valuation (high P/E with low dividend yield).

Positive Factors

HAMR technology adoption

Qualification of Mozaic HAMR drives with major cloud providers creates a durable competitive advantage. Broader CSP qualification accelerates long‑term adoption of higher‑density drives, supports exabyte-scale demand, strengthens customer stickiness and underpins sustainable margin and revenue growth.

Improving margins and profitability

Sustained margin expansion reflects structural improvements: favorable product mix toward high-capacity, data-center drives and pricing power with hyperscalers. Higher gross and operating margins provide lasting capacity to fund R&D, HAMR scale-up, dividends and de‑leveraging without relying solely on revenue growth.

Strong cash generation and capital allocation

Robust free cash flow and a $1.0B cash balance enabled meaningful debt retirement while maintaining shareholder returns. Durable cash generation improves financial flexibility to invest in HAMR manufacturing, service capacity, or further de‑leverage, supporting long‑term strategic options.

Negative Factors

High leverage and negative equity

Negative shareholders' equity and extreme debt-to-equity indicate structural balance-sheet weakness. High leverage raises refinancing and interest‑cost risk, restricts flexibility for capex or strategic M&A, and can impair the company's ability to sustain investments through cyclical downturns.

Supply constraints limit scale

Persistent supply limitations form a structural bottleneck: inability to scale unit shipments quickly caps revenue despite strong CSP demand, delays HAMR crossover benefits, may force costly capacity investments, and leaves market share vulnerable to better‑supplied rivals.

Concentration in data-center revenue

With roughly 80% of sales from data centers, Seagate is highly exposed to cloud provider spending patterns and bargaining power. This structural concentration amplifies downside risk if hyperscaler demand slows, pricing pressure intensifies, or customers pursue alternative storage architectures.

Seagate Tech Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Seagate Technology Holdings plc provides data storage technology and solutions in Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and internationally. It provides mass capacity storage products, including enterprise nearline hard disk drives (HDDs), enterprise nearline solid state drives (SSDs), enterprise nearline systems, video and image HDDs, and network-attached storage drives. The company also offers legacy applications comprising Mission Critical HDDs and SSDs; external storage solutions under the Seagate Ultra Touch, One Touch, and Expansion product lines, as well as under the LaCie brand name; desktop drives; notebook drives, DVR HDDs, and gaming SSDs. In addition, it provides Lyve edge-to-cloud mass capacity platform. The company sells its products primarily to OEMs, distributors, and retailers. Seagate Technology Holdings plc was founded in 1978 and is based in Dublin, Ireland.

How the Company Makes Money

Seagate generates revenue through the sale of its data storage products, which include HDDs and SSDs, targeting different customer segments such as enterprises, cloud service providers, and individual consumers. The company’s primary revenue streams are derived from the direct sale of these storage devices, as well as from providing related services, such as data recovery and cloud storage solutions. Significant partnerships with major cloud computing companies and OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers) enhance its market presence and contribute to steady demand. Additionally, Seagate invests in research and development to innovate and improve its product offerings, ensuring competitive pricing and performance, which further drives its revenue growth.

Seagate Tech Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating performance and cash generation are strong in TTM (solid margins, profitability rebound, and ~$1.9B free cash flow with strong growth), but balance-sheet resilience is a major offset with negative equity in multiple years and a higher-risk capital structure through the cycle.

Income Statement

Profitability has rebounded strongly: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is up (~5.2%) with solid gross margin (~36.9%) and net margin (~17.9%). The company has also recovered materially from the 2023 downcycle (loss-making year) to healthy profits in 2024–TTM, showing improving operating leverage. Key weakness is volatility across the cycle—revenue and earnings swung sharply from 2022 strength to 2023 weakness, which increases forecasting risk.

Balance Sheet

Balance sheet quality is the main concern. Equity has been negative in multiple years (2023–2025), and leverage metrics are distorted by the low/negative equity base, signaling limited balance-sheet cushion. While TTM total debt appears much lower than prior annual periods, the overall capital structure still screens as higher risk given the thin/negative equity history and inconsistent reported leverage.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength. TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow (~$2.0B) and free cash flow (~$1.9B) are strong, with very large free-cash-flow growth (~55.7%). Free cash flow is substantial relative to net income (about ~80%), supporting financial flexibility. A watch item is that cash flow coverage metrics remain moderate rather than exceptional, so sustaining this pace through the next demand downturn is the key risk.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	10.06B	9.10B	6.55B	7.38B	11.66B	10.68B
Gross Profit	3.89B	3.20B	1.54B	1.42B	3.47B	2.92B
EBITDA	2.74B	2.08B	1.04B	330.00M	2.38B	1.97B
Net Income	1.97B	1.47B	335.00M	-529.00M	1.65B	1.31B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.71B	8.02B	7.74B	7.56B	8.94B	8.68B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.05B	891.00M	1.36B	786.00M	617.00M	1.21B
Total Debt	4.50B	5.37B	5.67B	5.83B	5.70B	5.19B
Total Liabilities	8.25B	8.48B	9.23B	8.76B	8.84B	8.04B
Stockholders Equity	459.00M	-453.00M	-1.49B	-1.20B	109.00M	631.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.90B	818.00M	664.00M	626.00M	1.28B	1.13B
Operating Cash Flow	2.02B	1.08B	918.00M	942.00M	1.66B	1.63B
Investing Cash Flow	-344.00M	-276.00M	126.00M	217.00M	-352.00M	-466.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.87B	-1.27B	-473.00M	-988.00M	-1.90B	-1.67B

Seagate Tech Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 418.63
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 418.63 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 359.08, above the 50-day MA of 311.83, and above the 200-day MA of 204.66, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 36.94 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for STX.

Seagate Tech Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WDC	78 Outperform	$91.34B	29.14	41.27%	0.18%	-16.35%	316.56%
NTAP	70 Outperform	$19.91B	16.62	125.35%	1.89%	2.64%	4.12%
STX	68 Neutral	$91.29B	50.26	―	1.02%	31.56%	106.00%
DELL	65 Neutral	$80.87B	15.62	―	1.45%	10.81%	31.67%
PSTG	64 Neutral	$22.21B	177.59	9.27%	―	13.18%	-0.92%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
HPQ	61 Neutral	$18.19B	7.16	―	5.09%	4.09%	-5.77%

Seagate Tech Corporate Events

Seagate Tech posts strong Q2 results, boosts shareholder returns

On January 28, 2026, Seagate Technology reported strong fiscal second-quarter 2026 results for the period ended January 2, 2026, with revenue rising to $2.83 billion from $2.33 billion a year earlier, GAAP gross margin expanding to 41.6%, and GAAP diluted EPS increasing to $2.60, while non-GAAP EPS reached $3.11. The company highlighted record gross and operating margins and attributed the outperformance to robust data center demand and the ramp-up of its HAMR-based Mozaic products, underscoring its positioning in high-capacity storage for AI-driven data growth. Seagate generated $723 million in operating cash flow and $607 million in free cash flow during the quarter, used $500 million to retire exchangeable senior notes due 2028, and returned $154 million to shareholders via dividends, ending the quarter with $1.0 billion in cash and 218 million shares outstanding. On January 27, 2026, the board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.74 per share, payable on April 8, 2026 to shareholders of record on March 25, 2026, signaling continued capital returns alongside investment in its areal-density-driven roadmap and reinforcing its financial strength and shareholder-focused capital allocation.

The most recent analyst rating on (STX) stock is a Buy with a $400.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Seagate Tech stock, see the STX Stock Forecast page.

Seagate Tech Finalizes Exchange of Senior Notes

On November 13, 2025, Seagate Technology announced the completion of privately negotiated exchanges involving $500 million of Seagate HDD’s 3.50% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2028. These exchanges, which were finalized on November 10 and 12, 2025, resulted in the retirement of the notes in exchange for approximately $503.4 million in cash and 4.3 million ordinary shares of Seagate stock. This transaction, conducted as a private placement, leaves approximately $1 billion of notes outstanding with unchanged terms, potentially impacting Seagate’s financial structure and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (STX) stock is a Buy with a $340.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Seagate Tech stock, see the STX Stock Forecast page.

Seagate Tech Enters Exchange Agreements for Notes

On November 4, 2025, Seagate Technology and its subsidiary, Seagate HDD Cayman, entered into privately negotiated exchange agreements with holders of Seagate HDD’s 3.50% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2028. The agreements involve exchanging $500 million in principal amount of notes for approximately $503.4 million in cash and a number of Seagate’s ordinary shares. The exchanges are expected to be completed by November 10, 2025, and will result in the retirement of the exchanged notes, leaving approximately $1.0 billion in notes outstanding.

The most recent analyst rating on (STX) stock is a Buy with a $275.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Seagate Tech stock, see the STX Stock Forecast page.