Super Micro Computer (SMCI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $16.88B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 21.95M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 23.6
• Beta (1Y): 3.32
• Revenue Growth: 12.22%
• EPS Growth: -48.34%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,684
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Computer Hardware
• EPS (TTM): 0.35
• Shares Outstanding: 596,971,100
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 27,216,586
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 21,951,281
• PEG Ratio: -2.41
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.62
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.32
• P/FCF Ratio: 18.99
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.92
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.54
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 15.29
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 30.79
• 1Y Price Target: $44.82
• Price Target Upside: 52.35% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.04
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $36.30B

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: $32.00 ▲(8.77% Upside)

The score is anchored by mixed financial quality—solid profitability and a stable balance sheet are offset by severe free cash flow deterioration and weak cash conversion. Technicals are a meaningful drag with the stock in a clear downtrend below major moving averages. Offsetting this, guidance/backlog from the latest call supports a medium-term growth case, while valuation appears moderate rather than clearly cheap.

Positive Factors

Strong Market Position

Super Micro's record back orders indicate strong demand for its NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra product line, solidifying its market position in AI infrastructure.

Global Expansion

The company's expansion into new facilities globally enhances production capacity, supporting long-term growth and meeting increasing demand.

Increased Revenue Guidance

Raising revenue guidance for fiscal year 2026 to at least $36 billion reflects confidence in future growth and market opportunities.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

A 15% year-over-year revenue decline in Q1 indicates challenges in maintaining growth momentum, potentially impacting future performance.

Lower Gross Margins

Expected gross margin decline due to higher costs and new platform ramp-up pressures profitability, affecting long-term margin sustainability.

Increased Net Debt

Transitioning from a net cash to a net debt position of $575 million could strain financial flexibility and impact future investment capacity.

Super Micro Computer Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Super Micro Computer, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and manufactures high performance server and storage solutions based on modular and open architecture in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. Its solutions range from complete server, storage systems, modular blade servers, blades, workstations, full racks, networking devices, server sub-systems, server management software, and security software. The company provides application-optimized server solutions, rackmount and blade servers, storage, and subsystems and accessories; and server software management solutions, such as Server Management Suite, including Supermicro Server Manager, Supermicro Power Management software, Supermicro Update Manager, SuperCloud Composer, and SuperDoctor 5. In addition, it offers server subsystems and accessories comprising server boards, chassis, power supplies, and other accessories. Further, the company provides server and storage system integration, configuration, and software upgrade and update services; and technical documentation services, as well as identifies service requirements, creates and executes project plans, and conducts verification testing and technical documentation, and training services. Additionally, it offers help desk and on-site product support services for its server and storage systems; and customer support services, including ongoing maintenance and technical support for its products. The company provides its products to enterprise data centers, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and 5G and edge computing markets. It sells its products through direct and indirect sales force, distributors, value-added resellers, system integrators, and original equipment manufacturers. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Super Micro Computer generates revenue through multiple streams primarily centered around the sale of its hardware products, including server systems, motherboards, and storage solutions. The company engages in direct sales to end-users as well as through distribution partners, allowing for a broad market reach. Key revenue streams include system sales, which encompass complete server configurations, and component sales, such as motherboards and accessories. Additionally, SMCI benefits from service contracts and warranties on its products, providing ongoing revenue from maintenance and support services. Strategic partnerships with major technology companies and cloud service providers further enhance its market presence and sales opportunities, as these alliances often lead to joint projects and co-development initiatives that can drive additional revenue. Overall, SMCI's emphasis on innovation and tailored solutions for diverse applications positions it well to capitalize on the growing demand for high-performance computing and data management solutions.

Super Micro Computer Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Super Micro Computer has experienced impressive revenue growth, but profitability margins have been under pressure. The balance sheet shows increased leverage, which could pose risks if not managed carefully. However, the company's cash flow position has improved significantly, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. Overall, while there are areas of concern, particularly with margins and leverage, the company's growth trajectory and cash flow improvements are positive indicators.

Income Statement

Super Micro Computer has demonstrated strong revenue growth over the years, with a significant increase in total revenue from $3.3 billion in 2020 to $21.9 billion in 2025. However, the gross profit margin has decreased from 18.01% in 2023 to 11.06% in 2025, indicating pressure on profitability. The net profit margin has also declined from 8.98% in 2023 to 4.77% in 2025. Despite these margin pressures, the company has maintained a positive EBIT and EBITDA margin, though both have decreased over time.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has increased from 0.027 in 2020 to 0.755 in 2025, indicating a higher reliance on debt financing. However, the equity ratio remains stable, and the return on equity was strong in 2023 at 32.45%, though it dropped to 0% in 2025. The increase in total assets and stockholders' equity over the years reflects growth, but the rising debt levels pose a potential risk.

Cash Flow

Super Micro Computer has shown a remarkable turnaround in cash flow, with free cash flow growing significantly by 4206.90% in 2025. The operating cash flow to net income ratio has improved from negative in 2024 to 0.71 in 2025, indicating better cash flow management. The free cash flow to net income ratio remains strong at 0.92 in 2025, suggesting efficient conversion of earnings into cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	21.05B	21.97B	14.99B	7.12B	5.20B	3.56B
Gross Profit	2.12B	2.43B	2.06B	1.28B	800.00M	534.54M
EBITDA	1.05B	1.33B	1.27B	799.69M	375.72M	149.30M
Net Income	792.81M	1.05B	1.15B	640.00M	285.16M	111.86M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	14.39B	14.02B	9.83B	3.67B	3.21B	2.24B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.20B	5.17B	1.67B	440.46M	267.40M	232.27M
Total Debt	4.78B	4.78B	2.18B	290.30M	620.56M	119.05M
Total Liabilities	7.86B	7.72B	4.41B	1.70B	1.78B	1.15B
Stockholders Equity	6.52B	6.30B	5.42B	1.97B	1.43B	1.10B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	217.91M	1.53B	-2.61B	626.79M	-485.98M	64.94M
Operating Cash Flow	333.10M	1.66B	-2.49B	663.58M	-440.80M	122.95M
Investing Cash Flow	-171.18M	-183.21M	-194.25M	-39.49M	-46.28M	-58.02M
Financing Cash Flow	1.96B	2.02B	3.91B	-448.29M	522.87M	-44.44M

Super Micro Computer Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 29.42
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SMCI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 29.42 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.02, below the 50-day MA of 33.22, and below the 200-day MA of 41.89, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.35 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SMCI.

Super Micro Computer Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ANET	80 Outperform	$157.52B	49.70	31.74%	―	27.75%	25.42%
CSCO	77 Outperform	$294.00B	28.06	23.01%	2.09%	8.91%	14.53%
NTAP	70 Outperform	$21.33B	18.74	125.35%	1.89%	2.64%	4.12%
HPE	68 Neutral	$29.48B	-288.06	0.23%	2.17%	14.17%	-102.25%
DELL	65 Neutral	$78.65B	15.83	―	1.45%	10.81%	31.67%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
SMCI	57 Neutral	$16.88B	23.58	12.79%	―	12.22%	-48.34%

Super Micro Computer Corporate Events

Super Micro Computer Secures New $2 Billion Credit Facility

On December 29, 2025, Super Micro Computer, Inc. entered into a new Credit Agreement establishing a revolving credit facility of up to $2 billion, including a $200 million letter-of-credit sub-limit and a $150 million same-day borrowing sub-limit, with an option to increase total revolving commitments by up to an additional $1 billion. The facility, which matures on December 29, 2030, is intended to support working capital and general corporate purposes, and features interest margins and commitment fees that vary based on the company’s leverage ratio or investment-grade credit ratings, along with customary financial covenants, leverage tests, and events of default; during non-investment-grade periods, the facility will be guaranteed and secured by substantially all assets of certain subsidiaries, with those guarantees and liens falling away if the company attains and maintains specified investment-grade ratings, underscoring a flexible capital structure and rating-linked covenant relief that may enhance its financial and strategic flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (SMCI) stock is a Hold with a $43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Super Micro Computer stock, see the SMCI Stock Forecast page.