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Super Micro Computer (SMCI)
NASDAQ:SMCI
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Super Micro Computer
(NASDAQ:SMCI)
Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$51.00
▲(22.71%Upside)
Positive Factors
Market Position
Supermicro remains one of the leading players to GPU-as-a-Service cloud providers and enterprises, and is expected to continue to benefit from broader secular trends in AI-driven infrastructure.
Technological Leadership
The company continued to highlight leadership relative to time to market for latest technology based servers in the high growth AI servers market, as well as expected launch of Data Canter Building Block Solutions (DCBBS), featuring their next generation Direct Liquid Cooling (DLC 2.0) capabilities, promising even more efficiency in terms of energy cost and TCO.
Valuation
The valuation is considered extremely attractive for a company targeting AI/HPC end markets and at the forefront of liquid cooled data centers.
Negative Factors
Competitive Pressure
The company is facing an increasingly competitive AI Servers landscape driving aggressive pricing and gross margin pressures.
Macroeconomic Uncertainty
The FY26 prior guide of $40bln was not reaffirmed given macro uncertainty associated with tariffs and AI diffusion rules which is likely to impact growth trajectory.
Revenue Challenges
Customer push out of deployments in F3Q was not limited to one or two customers and represents an ongoing challenge in relation to customers deciding between multiple platforms as well as datacenter readiness to accept shipments as planned.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$24.80B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)46.21M
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.9
Beta (1Y)3.34
Revenue Growth82.10%
EPS Growth6.35%
CountryUS
Employees5,684
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength78
IndustryComputer Hardware
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.31
Shares Outstanding596,817,600
10 Day Avg. Volume30,915,739
30 Day Avg. Volume46,212,259
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.17
Price to Book (P/B)6.69
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio21.05
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.53
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.17
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.36
Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.21
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$40.83Price Target Upside-1.76% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
Super Micro Computer Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionSuper Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) is a global leader in high-performance, high-efficiency server technology and innovation. The company operates in the technology hardware sector, specializing in the design, manufacturing, and sale of energy-efficient, application-optimized server solutions. Its core products include a comprehensive range of server systems, storage solutions, and networking products, which are used in various industries including data centers, cloud computing, and enterprise IT.
How the Company Makes MoneySuper Micro Computer makes money primarily through the sale of its server and storage systems, which are tailored to meet the specific needs of various industries such as data centers, cloud computing, and enterprise IT. The company's revenue streams include direct sales to large enterprises, government agencies, and educational institutions, as well as through partnerships with value-added resellers and distributors. Additionally, SMCI generates income from providing related services such as technical support, system integration, and maintenance. Key factors contributing to its earnings include its focus on high-performance, energy-efficient technologies and its ability to offer customizable solutions that address the needs of a diverse customer base.
Super Micro Computer Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes revenue from different business units or product lines, highlighting which areas are driving growth and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Analyzes revenue from different business units or product lines, highlighting which areas are driving growth and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Data provided by:
Main Street Data
Main Street DataSuper Micro Computer Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: 26.17%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a mixed sentiment with strong year-over-year growth and strategic advancements in AI products and global operations. However, the challenges with quarterly revenue decline, decreased EPS, and lower gross margins, primarily due to inventory and platform transition issues, tempered the positive achievements.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth Year-Over-Year
Fiscal Q3 2025 revenues were $4.6 billion, up 19% year-over-year.
Volume Shipments of New AI Products
Achieved volume shipments of air-cooled 10U and liquid-cooled 4U NVIDIA B200 HGX systems, AMD MI-325X solutions, and GB200 NVL72 racks.
Introduction of DCBBS
Launched Datacenter Building Block Solutions (DCBBS) featuring second-generation system liquid cooling technology, offering up to 30% lower TCO and reducing power consumption, space, and water usage.
Expansion of Global Operations
Expanded operations in Malaysia, Taiwan, and Europe, with new facilities in the Midwest U.S., aiming to meet rising demand and enhance quality and security.
Improved Cash Position
Closing Q3 balance sheet cash position was $2.54 billion, resulting in a net cash position of $44 million versus a negative net cash position of $479 million last quarter.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Revenue Decline
Fiscal Q3 2025 revenues were down 19% quarter-over-quarter, driven by delayed customer commitments due to AI platform transitions.
Decreased Non-GAAP EPS
Fiscal Q3 non-GAAP EPS stood at $0.31 per share, compared to $0.66 last year, largely due to a one-time inventory write-down.
Lowered Gross Margin
Q3 non-GAAP gross margin was 9.7%, down 220 basis points quarter-over-quarter from 11.9% in Q2, influenced by higher inventory reserves and lower volumes.
Inventory and Platform Transition Challenges
Faced challenges with inventory reserves for older generation products and the transition between AI platforms, impacting sales and margins.
Macroeconomic and Tariff Uncertainties
Macroeconomic conditions and tariff impacts contributed to challenges in precisely forecasting and setting margin expectations.
Company Guidance
During the Super Micro Computer, Inc. Q3 2025 earnings call, the guidance provided highlighted several key metrics and future expectations. The company reported Q3 fiscal net revenue of $4.6 billion, marking a 19% year-over-year increase but a 19% decrease from the previous quarter, primarily due to delayed customer commitments amid technology transitions from Hopper to Blackwell GPUs. This delay impacted their non-GAAP EPS, which stood at $0.31, down from $0.66 the previous year, largely due to a one-time inventory write-down of older-generation GPUs. Looking ahead, Supermicro expects Q4 revenues between $5.6 billion and $6.4 billion, with a non-GAAP EPS forecast of $0.40 to $0.50. The company remains confident about its long-term growth trajectory, despite macroeconomic uncertainties, and anticipates that new innovations in AI infrastructure, such as their Datacenter Building Block Solutions (DCBBS) and the upcoming DLC-2 technology, will enhance their market position. They project fiscal year 2025 revenues to range from $21.8 billion to $22.6 billion, driven by strong demand for their new Blackwell platforms and DCBBS solutions.Super Micro Computer Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Super Micro Computer shows robust financial health with impressive revenue and profit growth, strong operational efficiency, and a stable balance sheet. The cash flows are positive but have some historical variability, which slightly tempers the overall financial performance.Income Statement
Super Micro Computer has demonstrated robust revenue growth, with a significant increase from $3,557 million in 2021 to $21,569 million in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) 2025, highlighting strong market demand and expansion. The company's gross profit margin improved, reflecting effective cost management. EBIT and EBITDA margins are strong, indicating solid operational efficiency. The net profit margin is also high, showcasing profitability.92
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows a healthy equity position with stockholders' equity increasing over time, enhancing the equity ratio. The debt-to-equity ratio is moderate, suggesting manageable leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) is strong, driven by high net income, indicating efficient use of equity. Overall, the balance sheet reflects stability with a solid asset base.88
Very Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals improvements in operating cash flow, though historical volatility is evident. The free cash flow to net income ratio indicates effective cash generation from earnings. However, the free cash flow growth rate shows fluctuations, reflecting investment activities and capital expenditures. While positive, cash flows could be more consistent.75
Positive
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 | Jun 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 21.57B | 14.99B | 7.12B | 5.20B | 3.56B | 3.34B | Gross Profit |
| 2.43B | 2.06B | 1.28B | 800.00M | 534.54M | 526.21M | EBIT |
| 1.31B | 1.21B | 761.14M | 335.17M | 92.93M | 58.59M | EBITDA |
| 1.38B | 1.27B | 796.05M | 335.17M | 152.13M | 114.13M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 1.15B | 1.15B | 640.00M | 285.16M | 111.86M | 84.31M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 2.54B | 1.67B | 440.56M | 267.70M | 232.27M | 210.53M | Total Assets |
| 10.74B | 9.83B | 3.67B | 3.21B | 2.24B | 1.92B | Total Debt |
| 2.45B | 2.17B | 290.30M | 596.76M | 98.19M | 53.81M | Net Debt |
| -86.81M | 504.38M | -150.16M | 329.37M | -134.08M | -156.72M | Total Liabilities |
| 4.36B | 4.41B | 1.70B | 1.78B | 1.15B | 852.94M | Stockholders Equity |
| 6.38B | 5.42B | 1.97B | 1.43B | 1.10B | 1.07B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| 35.58M | -2.61B | 626.79M | -485.98M | 64.94M | -74.67M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 154.10M | -2.49B | 663.58M | -440.80M | 122.95M | -30.33M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -166.81M | -194.25M | -39.49M | -46.28M | -58.02M | -43.59M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 433.56M | 3.91B | -448.29M | 522.87M | -44.44M | 23.80M |
Super Micro Computer Technical Analysis
Positive
41.56
Price Trends
37.34
Positive
38.27
Positive
37.98
Positive
Market Momentum
1.31
Positive
52.24
Neutral
58.37
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SMCI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 41.56 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 42.32, above the 50-day MA of 37.34, and above the 200-day MA of 37.98, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SMCI.
Super Micro Computer Risk Analysis
Super Micro Computer disclosed 63 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Super Micro Computer reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Super Micro Computer Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $24.80B | 22.94 | 21.03% | ― | 82.10% | 6.35% | |
77 Outperform | $20.13B | 17.71 | 108.51% | 2.07% | 5.02% | 22.19% | |
71 Outperform | $16.88B | 138.99 | 9.76% | ― | 10.85% | 30.85% | |
70 Neutral | $19.43B | 10.59 | 28.45% | 0.72% | 21.22% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $27.01B | 18.39 | -109.27% | 2.26% | 36.29% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $11.80B | 10.08 | -7.46% | 2.99% | 7.37% | -8.21% | |
61 Neutral | $22.39B | 9.19 | 84.33% | 4.86% | 2.08% | -12.41% |
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
SMCI
Super Micro Computer
41.56
-47.18
-53.17%
HPQ
HP
23.84
-10.74
-31.06%
NTAP
NetApp
100.49
-23.16
-18.73%
STX
Seagate Tech
127.27
24.31
23.61%
WDC
Western Digital
55.70
-4.53
-7.52%
PSTG
Pure Storage
51.65
-16.16
-23.83%
Super Micro Computer Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Super Micro Computer Announces Amendments to Compensation Plan
Neutral
Jun 6, 2025
At the Annual Meeting of Stockholders on June 4, 2025, Super Micro Computer, Inc. announced the approval of amendments to its 2020 Equity and Incentive Compensation Plan. This includes an increase of 18,000,000 shares available for awards and updates to whistleblower protection language. The meeting also saw the election of two Class III Directors, approval of executive compensation, and the ratification of BDO USA, P.C. as the company’s independent auditor.
The most recent analyst rating on (SMCI) stock is a Sell with a $32.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Super Micro Computer stock, see the SMCI Stock Forecast page.
Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Supermicro Announces Leadership Changes to Drive Growth
Positive
Mar 31, 2025
On March 31, 2025, Supermicro announced significant changes to its Board of Directors and senior leadership team to bolster its growth strategy. Scott Angel, with extensive experience in accounting and the technology sector, was appointed as an independent director, while Yitai Hu, a seasoned legal expert, was promoted to General Counsel. These appointments are aimed at supporting Supermicro’s continued expansion and leadership in the AI revolution, enhancing its risk and compliance capabilities, and aligning its legal department with the company’s growth ambitions.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.