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Super Micro Computer (SMCI)
NASDAQ:SMCI

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) AI Stock Analysis

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Super Micro Computer

(NASDAQ:SMCI)

Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$56.00
▲(15.32%Upside)
Super Micro Computer's strong financial performance, supported by robust revenue growth and profitability, significantly boosts its overall score. However, technical indicators suggest caution due to near overbought conditions. The valuation is moderate, and recent earnings call highlights mixed prospects amid platform transitions. Positive corporate events add to growth potential, aligning with strategic expansion efforts.
Positive Factors
Technology Leadership
The company continued to highlight leadership relative to time to market for latest technology based servers in the high growth AI servers market, as well as expected launch of Data Center Building Block Solutions (DCBBS), featuring their next generation Direct Liquid Cooling (DLC 2.0) capabilities, promising even more efficiency in terms of energy cost and TCO.
Valuation and Market Position
The valuation is considered extremely attractive for a company targeting AI/HPC end markets and at the forefront of liquid cooled data centers.
Negative Factors
Competitive Pressure
The company is facing an increasingly competitive AI Servers landscape driving aggressive pricing and gross margin pressures.
Customer Deployment Challenges
Customer push out of deployments was not limited to one or two customers and represents an ongoing challenge in relation to customers deciding between multiple platforms as well as datacenter readiness to accept shipments as planned.
Macro Uncertainty
The FY26 prior guide of $40 billion was not reaffirmed given macro uncertainty associated with tariffs and AI diffusion rules likely to impact growth trajectory.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Super Micro Computer Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSuper Micro Computer, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and manufactures high performance server and storage solutions based on modular and open architecture in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. Its solutions range from complete server, storage systems, modular blade servers, blades, workstations, full racks, networking devices, server sub-systems, server management software, and security software. The company provides application-optimized server solutions, rackmount and blade servers, storage, and subsystems and accessories; and server software management solutions, such as Server Management Suite, including Supermicro Server Manager, Supermicro Power Management software, Supermicro Update Manager, SuperCloud Composer, and SuperDoctor 5. In addition, it offers server subsystems and accessories comprising server boards, chassis, power supplies, and other accessories. Further, the company provides server and storage system integration, configuration, and software upgrade and update services; and technical documentation services, as well as identifies service requirements, creates and executes project plans, and conducts verification testing and technical documentation, and training services. Additionally, it offers help desk and on-site product support services for its server and storage systems; and customer support services, including ongoing maintenance and technical support for its products. The company provides its products to enterprise data centers, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and 5G and edge computing markets. It sells its products through direct and indirect sales force, distributors, value-added resellers, system integrators, and original equipment manufacturers. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.
How the Company Makes MoneySuper Micro Computer makes money primarily through the sale of its server and storage systems, which are tailored to meet the specific needs of various industries such as data centers, cloud computing, and enterprise IT. The company's revenue streams include direct sales to large enterprises, government agencies, and educational institutions, as well as through partnerships with value-added resellers and distributors. Additionally, SMCI generates income from providing related services such as technical support, system integration, and maintenance. Key factors contributing to its earnings include its focus on high-performance, energy-efficient technologies and its ability to offer customizable solutions that address the needs of a diverse customer base.

Super Micro Computer Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Segment
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes revenue from different business units or product lines, highlighting which areas are driving growth and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Chart InsightsSuper Micro Computer's 'Server and Storage Systems' segment has seen a robust upward trajectory, with a notable surge in 2024, driven by strong demand for new AI infrastructure solutions. However, the latest earnings call highlights a temporary setback due to delayed customer commitments amid technology transitions, impacting Q3 2025 revenue. Despite these challenges, the company remains optimistic about its long-term growth, supported by innovations like Datacenter Building Block Solutions and expansion in global operations, positioning it well for future revenue growth.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Super Micro Computer Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: 47.42%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a mixed sentiment with strong year-over-year growth and strategic advancements in AI products and global operations. However, the challenges with quarterly revenue decline, decreased EPS, and lower gross margins, primarily due to inventory and platform transition issues, tempered the positive achievements.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth Year-Over-Year
Fiscal Q3 2025 revenues were $4.6 billion, up 19% year-over-year.
Volume Shipments of New AI Products
Achieved volume shipments of air-cooled 10U and liquid-cooled 4U NVIDIA B200 HGX systems, AMD MI-325X solutions, and GB200 NVL72 racks.
Introduction of DCBBS
Launched Datacenter Building Block Solutions (DCBBS) featuring second-generation system liquid cooling technology, offering up to 30% lower TCO and reducing power consumption, space, and water usage.
Expansion of Global Operations
Expanded operations in Malaysia, Taiwan, and Europe, with new facilities in the Midwest U.S., aiming to meet rising demand and enhance quality and security.
Improved Cash Position
Closing Q3 balance sheet cash position was $2.54 billion, resulting in a net cash position of $44 million versus a negative net cash position of $479 million last quarter.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Revenue Decline
Fiscal Q3 2025 revenues were down 19% quarter-over-quarter, driven by delayed customer commitments due to AI platform transitions.
Decreased Non-GAAP EPS
Fiscal Q3 non-GAAP EPS stood at $0.31 per share, compared to $0.66 last year, largely due to a one-time inventory write-down.
Lowered Gross Margin
Q3 non-GAAP gross margin was 9.7%, down 220 basis points quarter-over-quarter from 11.9% in Q2, influenced by higher inventory reserves and lower volumes.
Inventory and Platform Transition Challenges
Faced challenges with inventory reserves for older generation products and the transition between AI platforms, impacting sales and margins.
Macroeconomic and Tariff Uncertainties
Macroeconomic conditions and tariff impacts contributed to challenges in precisely forecasting and setting margin expectations.
Company Guidance
During the Super Micro Computer, Inc. Q3 2025 earnings call, the guidance provided highlighted several key metrics and future expectations. The company reported Q3 fiscal net revenue of $4.6 billion, marking a 19% year-over-year increase but a 19% decrease from the previous quarter, primarily due to delayed customer commitments amid technology transitions from Hopper to Blackwell GPUs. This delay impacted their non-GAAP EPS, which stood at $0.31, down from $0.66 the previous year, largely due to a one-time inventory write-down of older-generation GPUs. Looking ahead, Supermicro expects Q4 revenues between $5.6 billion and $6.4 billion, with a non-GAAP EPS forecast of $0.40 to $0.50. The company remains confident about its long-term growth trajectory, despite macroeconomic uncertainties, and anticipates that new innovations in AI infrastructure, such as their Datacenter Building Block Solutions (DCBBS) and the upcoming DLC-2 technology, will enhance their market position. They project fiscal year 2025 revenues to range from $21.8 billion to $22.6 billion, driven by strong demand for their new Blackwell platforms and DCBBS solutions.

Super Micro Computer Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Super Micro Computer shows robust financial health with impressive revenue and profit growth, strong operational efficiency, and a stable balance sheet. The cash flows are positive but have some historical variability, which slightly tempers the overall financial performance.
Income Statement
92
Very Positive
Super Micro Computer has demonstrated robust revenue growth, with a significant increase from $3,557 million in 2021 to $21,569 million in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) 2025, highlighting strong market demand and expansion. The company's gross profit margin improved, reflecting effective cost management. EBIT and EBITDA margins are strong, indicating solid operational efficiency. The net profit margin is also high, showcasing profitability.
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
The balance sheet shows a healthy equity position with stockholders' equity increasing over time, enhancing the equity ratio. The debt-to-equity ratio is moderate, suggesting manageable leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) is strong, driven by high net income, indicating efficient use of equity. Overall, the balance sheet reflects stability with a solid asset base.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals improvements in operating cash flow, though historical volatility is evident. The free cash flow to net income ratio indicates effective cash generation from earnings. However, the free cash flow growth rate shows fluctuations, reflecting investment activities and capital expenditures. While positive, cash flows could be more consistent.
BreakdownTTMJun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021Jun 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue21.57B14.99B7.12B5.20B3.56B3.34B
Gross Profit2.43B2.06B1.28B800.00M534.54M526.21M
EBITDA1.38B1.27B796.05M335.17M152.13M114.13M
Net Income1.15B1.15B640.00M285.16M111.86M84.31M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets10.74B9.83B3.67B3.21B2.24B1.92B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.54B1.67B440.56M267.70M232.27M210.53M
Total Debt2.45B2.17B290.30M596.76M98.19M53.81M
Total Liabilities4.36B4.41B1.70B1.78B1.15B852.94M
Stockholders Equity6.38B5.42B1.97B1.43B1.10B1.07B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow35.58M-2.61B626.79M-485.98M64.94M-74.67M
Operating Cash Flow154.10M-2.49B663.58M-440.80M122.95M-30.33M
Investing Cash Flow-166.81M-194.25M-39.49M-46.28M-58.02M-43.59M
Financing Cash Flow433.56M3.91B-448.29M522.87M-44.44M23.80M

Super Micro Computer Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price48.56
Price Trends
50DMA
40.87
Positive
100DMA
40.24
Positive
200DMA
38.11
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
2.11
Negative
RSI
60.03
Neutral
STOCH
75.62
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SMCI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 48.56 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 44.69, above the 50-day MA of 40.87, and above the 200-day MA of 38.11, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.62 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SMCI.

Super Micro Computer Risk Analysis

Super Micro Computer disclosed 63 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Super Micro Computer reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Super Micro Computer Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (69)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
$21.49B18.90108.51%1.94%5.02%22.19%
77
Outperform
$28.98B26.8021.03%82.10%6.35%
76
Outperform
$18.61B153.209.76%10.85%30.85%
69
Neutral
¥229.24B14.267.64%2.72%9.14%8.60%
WDWDC
63
Neutral
$23.05B12.5628.45%0.15%21.22%
HPHPQ
61
Neutral
$24.42B10.0284.33%4.45%2.08%-12.41%
STSTX
61
Neutral
$31.71B21.59-109.27%1.93%36.29%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SMCI
Super Micro Computer
48.56
-41.37
-46.00%
HPQ
HP
26.00
-8.00
-23.53%
NTAP
NetApp
107.26
-20.29
-15.91%
STX
Seagate Tech
149.44
48.82
48.52%
WDC
Western Digital
66.08
6.87
11.60%
PSTG
Pure Storage
56.93
-8.24
-12.64%

Super Micro Computer Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingStock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Supermicro Completes $2.3 Billion Convertible Notes Sale
Positive
Jun 27, 2025

On June 26, 2025, Supermicro completed the sale of $2.3 billion in Convertible Senior Notes due 2030, including an additional $300 million from the initial purchasers’ option. The net proceeds of approximately $2.26 billion will be used for capped call transactions, share repurchases, and general corporate purposes. The Convertible Notes, which do not bear regular interest, are senior unsecured obligations and can be converted into cash or shares of the company’s common stock. The company also entered into capped call transactions to reduce potential dilution and offset cash payments upon conversion. These financial maneuvers are expected to support Supermicro’s growth and business expansion.

The most recent analyst rating on (SMCI) stock is a Buy with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Super Micro Computer stock, see the SMCI Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Super Micro Computer Announces $2B Convertible Notes Offering
Neutral
Jun 23, 2025

On June 23, 2025, Super Micro Computer announced its intention to offer $2.0 billion in convertible senior notes due 2030, subject to market conditions. This financial move, which includes an option for initial purchasers to acquire an additional $300 million, aims to strengthen the company’s financial standing and potentially impact its market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (SMCI) stock is a Buy with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Super Micro Computer stock, see the SMCI Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Super Micro Computer Announces Amendments to Compensation Plan
Neutral
Jun 6, 2025

At the Annual Meeting of Stockholders on June 4, 2025, Super Micro Computer, Inc. announced the approval of amendments to its 2020 Equity and Incentive Compensation Plan. This includes an increase of 18,000,000 shares available for awards and updates to whistleblower protection language. The meeting also saw the election of two Class III Directors, approval of executive compensation, and the ratification of BDO USA, P.C. as the company’s independent auditor.

The most recent analyst rating on (SMCI) stock is a Sell with a $32.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Super Micro Computer stock, see the SMCI Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 27, 2025