Super Micro Computer (SMCI)
NASDAQ:SMCI
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Super Micro Computer
(NASDAQ:SMCI)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$25.00
▲(12.56% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/21/26
The score is primarily driven by strong revenue momentum but meaningfully weaker quality of earnings (sharp margin compression), higher leverage, and volatile cash conversion. Technicals are notably weak with the stock far below major moving averages despite oversold readings. Valuation is a relative support given the low P/E, while the earnings call was mixed: raised revenue outlook and operational initiatives offset by concentration, inventory, and margin risks.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Sustained high revenue growth indicates durable demand and expanding market penetration, driven by large-scale data center and AI deployments. Over 2–6 months this supports scale benefits, continuing design wins, and revenue predictability versus companies with stagnant sales.
Negative Factors
Customer Concentration
Extremely high single-customer reliance raises durable revenue volatility and pricing exposure: any slowdown, repricing, or loss of that customer would materially cut revenue and leverage, constraining long-term planning, bargaining power, and margin sustainability for multiple quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth
Sustained high revenue growth indicates durable demand and expanding market penetration, driven by large-scale data center and AI deployments. Over 2–6 months this supports scale benefits, continuing design wins, and revenue predictability versus companies with stagnant sales.
Read all positive factors
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$14.41B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)35.42M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.9
Beta (1Y)3.35
Revenue Growth12.22%
EPS Growth-48.34%
CountryUS
Employees5,684
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryComputer Hardware
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.69
Shares Outstanding598,989,440
10 Day Avg. Volume57,614,054
30 Day Avg. Volume35,419,264
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.00
Price to Book (P/B)4.62
Price to Sales (P/S)1.32
P/FCF Ratio18.99
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.98
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.50
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.28
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.81
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$31.70Price Target Upside42.73% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)2.21
Revenue Forecast (FY)$40.67B
Super Micro Computer Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Super Micro Computer, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and manufactures high performance server and storage solutions based on modular and open architecture in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. Its solutions range...
How the Company Makes Money
Supermicro primarily makes money by selling hardware systems and related solutions, with revenue recognized from the delivery of configured server and storage platforms and associated components to customers such as hyperscale/cloud providers, ent...
Super Micro Computer Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlySuper Micro Computer Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 03, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveys a mix of very strong top-line momentum and strategic progress (record revenue, rapid AI/GPU demand, DCBBS product expansion, EPS and operating leverage outperformance, improved cash conversion and expanded financing) alongside material near-term challenges (sharp gross margin compression, single-customer concentration, large inventory build, supply-chain constraints and regional concentration). Management is guiding conservatively on full-year revenue while projecting sequential margin improvement and significant long-term upside from DCBBS and DFM initiatives. Overall, the strengths in demand and product evolution are tempered by execution, margin and concentration risks that keep near-term financials pressured.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue and Rapid Growth
Q2 revenue of ~TWD 12.68 billion (~$12.7B) was a record, up 123% year-over-year and up 153% quarter-over-quarter versus the company guidance range of $10B-$11B; Q2 included approximately $1.5B of delayed Q1 shipments.
Negative Updates
Gross Margin Compression
Q2 non-GAAP gross margin declined to 6.4% from 9.5% in Q1 (a ~310 basis point drop) due to customer/product mix (large model builders with pricing leverage), higher freight/expedite costs, component shortages and tariff impacts.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue and Rapid Growth
Q2 revenue of ~TWD 12.68 billion (~$12.7B) was a record, up 123% year-over-year and up 153% quarter-over-quarter versus the company guidance range of $10B-$11B; Q2 included approximately $1.5B of delayed Q1 shipments.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Super Micro guided Q3 FY‑26 net sales of at least $12.3 billion and raised full‑year FY‑26 revenue guidance to at least $40 billion; they expect Q3 gross margin to be up about 30 basis points versus Q2’s 6.4% non‑GAAP gross margin (implying ~6.7%), GAAP diluted EPS of at least $0.52 and non‑GAAP diluted EPS of at least $0.60, GAAP operating expenses around $354 million (including roughly $74 million of stock‑based compensation that is excluded from non‑GAAP Opex), approximately $62 million of stock‑based compensation included in GAAP EPS guidance (net of ~$19 million tax effect), other income/expense to be a net expense of about $22 million, assumed tax rates of 19.6% (GAAP) and 20.2% (non‑GAAP), fully diluted share counts of ~684 million (GAAP) and ~699 million (non‑GAAP), and Q3 capital expenditures of $70–$90 million.Super Micro Computer Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 28.06B | 21.97B | 14.99B | 7.12B | 5.20B | 3.56B |
| Gross Profit | 2.25B | 2.43B | 2.06B | 1.28B | 800.00M | 534.54M |
| EBITDA | 1.20B | 1.33B | 1.27B | 799.69M | 375.72M | 149.30M |
| Net Income | 872.78M | 1.05B | 1.15B | 640.00M | 285.16M | 111.86M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 28.00B | 14.02B | 9.83B | 3.67B | 3.21B | 2.24B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.09B | 5.17B | 1.67B | 440.46M | 267.40M | 232.27M |
| Total Debt | 4.91B | 4.78B | 2.18B | 290.30M | 620.56M | 119.05M |
| Total Liabilities | 21.01B | 7.72B | 4.41B | 1.70B | 1.78B | 1.15B |
| Stockholders Equity | 6.99B | 6.30B | 5.42B | 1.97B | 1.43B | 1.10B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 440.09M | 1.53B | -2.61B | 626.79M | -485.98M | 64.94M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 548.96M | 1.66B | -2.49B | 663.58M | -440.80M | 122.95M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -189.87M | -183.21M | -194.25M | -39.49M | -46.28M | -58.02M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.41B | 2.02B | 3.91B | -448.29M | 522.87M | -44.44M |
Super Micro Computer Technical Analysis
Negative
22.21
Price Trends
30.61
Negative
32.58
Negative
40.50
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.07
Positive
36.58
Neutral
23.45
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SMCI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 22.21 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.67, below the 50-day MA of 30.61, and below the 200-day MA of 40.50, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SMCI.
Super Micro Computer Risk Analysis
Super Micro Computer disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Super Micro Computer reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Super Micro Computer Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $169.65B | 43.11 | 31.01% | ― | 27.75% | 25.42% | |
74 Outperform | $323.22B | 23.23 | 23.64% | 2.09% | 8.91% | 14.53% | |
70 Outperform | $118.82B | 13.34 | -218.24% | 1.45% | 19.12% | 39.59% | |
66 Neutral | $34.21B | 17.34 | -0.64% | 2.17% | 14.17% | -102.25% | |
64 Neutral | $20.82B | 14.44 | 116.57% | 1.89% | 2.64% | 4.12% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
59 Neutral | $14.41B | 10.90 | 13.33% | ― | 12.22% | -48.34% |
* Technology Sector Average
SMCI
Super Micro Computer
24.05
-10.67
-30.73%
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184.01
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93.02%
Super Micro Computer Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Super Micro Computer Amends Credit Agreement, Lowers Loan Costs
Positive
Jan 29, 2026
On January 26, 2026, Super Micro Computer, Inc. amended its existing credit agreement originally dated December 29, 2025, with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and a syndicate of lenders. The amendment updates the agreement to reflect the company’s...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingShareholder Meetings
Super Micro Computer Secures Major New Credit Facilities
Positive
Jan 26, 2026
On January 21, 2026, Super Micro Computer, Inc. Taiwan, a wholly owned subsidiary of Super Micro Computer, Inc., entered into a Taiwan‑law governed credit agreement establishing two revolving credit facilities totaling $710 million, with an ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Super Micro Computer Secures New $2 Billion Credit Facility
Positive
Jan 2, 2026
On December 29, 2025, Super Micro Computer, Inc. entered into a new Credit Agreement establishing a revolving credit facility of up to $2 billion, including a $200 million letter-of-credit sub-limit and a $150 million same-day borrowing sub-limit,...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.