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Super Micro Computer (SMCI)
NASDAQ:SMCI
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Super Micro Computer (SMCI) AI Stock Analysis

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SMCI

Super Micro Computer

(NASDAQ:SMCI)

Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$59.00
▲(8.32%Upside)
Super Micro Computer's strong financial performance and strategic corporate events are key strengths, contributing positively to its stock score. However, technical analysis suggests potential near-term challenges due to overbought conditions, and valuation metrics indicate moderate attractiveness. Mixed sentiment from the earnings call and absence of a dividend yield add complexity to the investment outlook.
Positive Factors
Market Demand
A burgeoning sovereign/enterprise AI market supports broader industry demand.
Supply Chain
Management sounds constructive on materialization of current commitments as Blackwell GPU supply constraints ease.
Valuation and Governance
With filing risks behind the company, along with an attractive valuation, analysts are resuming coverage with a Buy.
Negative Factors
Competitive Landscape
Concerns on margins arise due to increased momentum and competitive efforts by DELL and HPE.
Litigation and Internal Controls
Litigation and investigations pose some headline risk as does the pace of management’s effort to address material weakness in internal controls.
Revenue and Component Availability
Availability of components such as GPUs and liquid cooling components may limit revenue growth.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Super Micro Computer Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSuper Micro Computer, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and manufactures high performance server and storage solutions based on modular and open architecture in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. Its solutions range from complete server, storage systems, modular blade servers, blades, workstations, full racks, networking devices, server sub-systems, server management software, and security software. The company provides application-optimized server solutions, rackmount and blade servers, storage, and subsystems and accessories; and server software management solutions, such as Server Management Suite, including Supermicro Server Manager, Supermicro Power Management software, Supermicro Update Manager, SuperCloud Composer, and SuperDoctor 5. In addition, it offers server subsystems and accessories comprising server boards, chassis, power supplies, and other accessories. Further, the company provides server and storage system integration, configuration, and software upgrade and update services; and technical documentation services, as well as identifies service requirements, creates and executes project plans, and conducts verification testing and technical documentation, and training services. Additionally, it offers help desk and on-site product support services for its server and storage systems; and customer support services, including ongoing maintenance and technical support for its products. The company provides its products to enterprise data centers, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and 5G and edge computing markets. It sells its products through direct and indirect sales force, distributors, value-added resellers, system integrators, and original equipment manufacturers. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.
How the Company Makes MoneySuper Micro Computer makes money primarily through the sale of its diverse range of high-performance computing products and solutions. The company's revenue model is driven by the direct sales of server systems, components, and complete solutions to a broad customer base, including enterprises, data centers, and cloud service providers. SMCI also generates revenue through its global network of distributors, system integrators, and value-added resellers. Key revenue streams include server systems, storage solutions, and networking products. Significant partnerships with technology companies enhance its product offerings and market reach, which further contribute to its earnings. Additionally, the company benefits from its focus on innovation and efficiency, allowing it to maintain competitive pricing and capture market share in the rapidly evolving technology sector.

Super Micro Computer Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Segment
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes revenue from different business units or product lines, highlighting which areas are driving growth and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Chart InsightsSuper Micro Computer's 'Server and Storage Systems' segment has seen a robust upward trajectory, with a notable surge in 2024, driven by strong demand for new AI infrastructure solutions. However, the latest earnings call highlights a temporary setback due to delayed customer commitments amid technology transitions, impacting Q3 2025 revenue. Despite these challenges, the company remains optimistic about its long-term growth, supported by innovations like Datacenter Building Block Solutions and expansion in global operations, positioning it well for future revenue growth.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Super Micro Computer Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: 65.36%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a mixed sentiment with strong year-over-year growth and strategic advancements in AI products and global operations. However, the challenges with quarterly revenue decline, decreased EPS, and lower gross margins, primarily due to inventory and platform transition issues, tempered the positive achievements.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth Year-Over-Year
Fiscal Q3 2025 revenues were $4.6 billion, up 19% year-over-year.
Volume Shipments of New AI Products
Achieved volume shipments of air-cooled 10U and liquid-cooled 4U NVIDIA B200 HGX systems, AMD MI-325X solutions, and GB200 NVL72 racks.
Introduction of DCBBS
Launched Datacenter Building Block Solutions (DCBBS) featuring second-generation system liquid cooling technology, offering up to 30% lower TCO and reducing power consumption, space, and water usage.
Expansion of Global Operations
Expanded operations in Malaysia, Taiwan, and Europe, with new facilities in the Midwest U.S., aiming to meet rising demand and enhance quality and security.
Improved Cash Position
Closing Q3 balance sheet cash position was $2.54 billion, resulting in a net cash position of $44 million versus a negative net cash position of $479 million last quarter.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Revenue Decline
Fiscal Q3 2025 revenues were down 19% quarter-over-quarter, driven by delayed customer commitments due to AI platform transitions.
Decreased Non-GAAP EPS
Fiscal Q3 non-GAAP EPS stood at $0.31 per share, compared to $0.66 last year, largely due to a one-time inventory write-down.
Lowered Gross Margin
Q3 non-GAAP gross margin was 9.7%, down 220 basis points quarter-over-quarter from 11.9% in Q2, influenced by higher inventory reserves and lower volumes.
Inventory and Platform Transition Challenges
Faced challenges with inventory reserves for older generation products and the transition between AI platforms, impacting sales and margins.
Macroeconomic and Tariff Uncertainties
Macroeconomic conditions and tariff impacts contributed to challenges in precisely forecasting and setting margin expectations.
Company Guidance
During the Super Micro Computer, Inc. Q3 2025 earnings call, the guidance provided highlighted several key metrics and future expectations. The company reported Q3 fiscal net revenue of $4.6 billion, marking a 19% year-over-year increase but a 19% decrease from the previous quarter, primarily due to delayed customer commitments amid technology transitions from Hopper to Blackwell GPUs. This delay impacted their non-GAAP EPS, which stood at $0.31, down from $0.66 the previous year, largely due to a one-time inventory write-down of older-generation GPUs. Looking ahead, Supermicro expects Q4 revenues between $5.6 billion and $6.4 billion, with a non-GAAP EPS forecast of $0.40 to $0.50. The company remains confident about its long-term growth trajectory, despite macroeconomic uncertainties, and anticipates that new innovations in AI infrastructure, such as their Datacenter Building Block Solutions (DCBBS) and the upcoming DLC-2 technology, will enhance their market position. They project fiscal year 2025 revenues to range from $21.8 billion to $22.6 billion, driven by strong demand for their new Blackwell platforms and DCBBS solutions.

Super Micro Computer Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Super Micro Computer exhibits strong financial health with substantial revenue growth and robust profitability metrics. The balance sheet is solid, and cash flows, while positive, show some historical variability.
Income Statement
92
Very Positive
Super Micro Computer has demonstrated robust revenue growth, with a significant increase from $3,557 million in 2021 to $21,569 million in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) 2025, highlighting strong market demand and expansion. The company's gross profit margin improved, reflecting effective cost management. EBIT and EBITDA margins are strong, indicating solid operational efficiency. The net profit margin is also high, showcasing profitability.
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
The balance sheet shows a healthy equity position with stockholders' equity increasing over time, enhancing the equity ratio. The debt-to-equity ratio is moderate, suggesting manageable leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) is strong, driven by high net income, indicating efficient use of equity. Overall, the balance sheet reflects stability with a solid asset base.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals improvements in operating cash flow, though historical volatility is evident. The free cash flow to net income ratio indicates effective cash generation from earnings. However, the free cash flow growth rate shows fluctuations, reflecting investment activities and capital expenditures. While positive, cash flows could be more consistent.
BreakdownJun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021Jun 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue14.99B7.12B5.20B3.56B3.34B
Gross Profit2.06B1.28B800.00M534.54M526.21M
EBITDA1.27B796.05M335.17M152.13M114.13M
Net Income1.15B640.00M285.16M111.86M84.31M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets9.83B3.67B3.21B2.24B1.92B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.67B440.56M267.70M232.27M210.53M
Total Debt2.17B290.30M596.76M98.19M53.81M
Total Liabilities4.41B1.70B1.78B1.15B852.94M
Stockholders Equity5.42B1.97B1.43B1.10B1.07B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-2.61B626.79M-485.98M64.94M-74.67M
Operating Cash Flow-2.49B663.58M-440.80M122.95M-30.33M
Investing Cash Flow-194.25M-39.49M-46.28M-58.02M-43.59M
Financing Cash Flow3.91B-448.29M522.87M-44.44M23.80M

Super Micro Computer Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price54.47
Price Trends
50DMA
45.98
Positive
100DMA
40.79
Positive
200DMA
38.69
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
2.21
Positive
RSI
65.25
Neutral
STOCH
74.03
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SMCI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 54.47 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 50.38, above the 50-day MA of 45.98, and above the 200-day MA of 38.69, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 65.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SMCI.

Super Micro Computer Risk Analysis

Super Micro Computer disclosed 63 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Super Micro Computer reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Super Micro Computer Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$32.51B30.0621.03%82.10%6.35%
76
Outperform
$18.82B154.989.76%10.85%30.85%
74
Outperform
$21.03B18.49108.51%1.98%5.02%22.19%
71
Outperform
$24.01B13.0828.45%0.15%21.22%
66
Neutral
$24.12B9.9084.33%4.45%2.08%-12.41%
63
Neutral
$34.72B5.19-11.20%1.67%5.59%-16.73%
61
Neutral
$32.02B21.80-109.27%1.90%36.29%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SMCI
Super Micro Computer
54.47
-15.30
-21.93%
HPQ
HP
25.68
-9.10
-26.16%
NTAP
NetApp
104.94
-17.58
-14.35%
STX
Seagate Tech
150.89
50.32
50.03%
WDC
Western Digital
68.82
18.72
37.37%
PSTG
Pure Storage
57.59
-0.61
-1.05%

Super Micro Computer Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Super Micro Computer Enters Receivables Purchase Agreement
Positive
Jul 21, 2025

On July 16, 2025, Super Micro Computer, Inc. entered into a Receivables Purchase Agreement with MUFG Bank, Ltd., Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank, and other entities. This agreement allows the company to sell certain accounts receivable to the purchasers, with an initial facility limit of $1.79 billion. The agreement provides flexibility for the company to manage its receivables and potentially improve cash flow, which could enhance its operational efficiency and financial stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (SMCI) stock is a Buy with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Super Micro Computer stock, see the SMCI Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingStock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Supermicro Completes $2.3 Billion Convertible Notes Sale
Positive
Jun 27, 2025

On June 26, 2025, Supermicro completed the sale of $2.3 billion in Convertible Senior Notes due 2030, including an additional $300 million from the initial purchasers’ option. The net proceeds of approximately $2.26 billion will be used for capped call transactions, share repurchases, and general corporate purposes. The Convertible Notes, which do not bear regular interest, are senior unsecured obligations and can be converted into cash or shares of the company’s common stock. The company also entered into capped call transactions to reduce potential dilution and offset cash payments upon conversion. These financial maneuvers are expected to support Supermicro’s growth and business expansion.

The most recent analyst rating on (SMCI) stock is a Buy with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Super Micro Computer stock, see the SMCI Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Super Micro Computer Announces $2B Convertible Notes Offering
Neutral
Jun 23, 2025

On June 23, 2025, Super Micro Computer announced its intention to offer $2.0 billion in convertible senior notes due 2030, subject to market conditions. This financial move, which includes an option for initial purchasers to acquire an additional $300 million, aims to strengthen the company’s financial standing and potentially impact its market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (SMCI) stock is a Buy with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Super Micro Computer stock, see the SMCI Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Super Micro Computer Announces Amendments to Compensation Plan
Neutral
Jun 6, 2025

At the Annual Meeting of Stockholders on June 4, 2025, Super Micro Computer, Inc. announced the approval of amendments to its 2020 Equity and Incentive Compensation Plan. This includes an increase of 18,000,000 shares available for awards and updates to whistleblower protection language. The meeting also saw the election of two Class III Directors, approval of executive compensation, and the ratification of BDO USA, P.C. as the company’s independent auditor.

The most recent analyst rating on (SMCI) stock is a Sell with a $32.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Super Micro Computer stock, see the SMCI Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 22, 2025