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Western Digital (WDC)
NASDAQ:WDC

Western Digital (WDC) AI Stock Analysis

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WDC

Western Digital

(NASDAQ:WDC)

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Outperform 77 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$193.00
▲(6.58% Upside)
Western Digital's strong financial recovery, positive technical indicators, and robust earnings call guidance are the primary drivers of its solid stock score. While valuation metrics suggest a moderate outlook, strategic corporate events and AI-driven demand support future growth prospects.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
The significant year-over-year revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective product positioning, supporting long-term business expansion.
Cash Flow Generation
Robust free cash flow generation enhances financial flexibility, enabling strategic investments and shareholder returns, crucial for sustainable growth.
AI-Driven Demand
AI-driven demand for high-capacity storage solutions positions Western Digital to capitalize on emerging technology trends, ensuring long-term revenue streams.
Negative Factors
Revenue Decline
The recent revenue decline could signal challenges in market competition or product demand, potentially impacting future growth if not addressed.
Moderate Leverage
Moderate leverage may limit financial flexibility and increase vulnerability to economic downturns, affecting long-term stability and investment capacity.
Macroeconomic Uncertainties
Macroeconomic uncertainties can impact demand and operational costs, posing risks to revenue stability and strategic planning over the medium term.

Western Digital (WDC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Western Digital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionWestern Digital Corporation develops, manufactures, and sells data storage devices and solutions in the United States, China, Hong Kong, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, rest of Asia, and internationally. It offers client devices, including hard disk drives (HDDs) and solid state drives (SSDs) for computing devices, such as desktop and notebook personal computers (PCs), smart video systems, gaming consoles, and set top boxes; flash-based embedded storage products for mobile phones, tablets, notebook PCs, and other portable and wearable devices, as well as automotive, Internet of Things, industrial, and connected home applications; and flash-based memory wafers. The company also provides data center devices and solutions comprising enterprise helium hard drives; enterprise SSDs consisting of flash-based SSDs and software solutions for use in enterprise servers, online transactions, data analysis, and other enterprise applications; data center solutions for data storage systems and tiered storage models; and data storage platforms. In addition, it offers client solutions, such as external HDD storage products in mobile and desktop form; client portable SSDs; removable cards that are used in consumer devices comprising mobile phones, tablets, imaging systems, and cameras and smart video systems; universal serial bus flash drives for use in the computing and consumer markets; and wireless drive products used in-field back up of created content, as well as wireless streaming of high-definition movies, photos, music, and documents to tablets, smartphones, and PCs. The company sells its products under the G-Technology, SanDisk, and WD brands to original equipment manufacturers, distributors, dealers, resellers, and retailers. Western Digital Corporation was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyWestern Digital generates revenue primarily through the sale of its data storage products, which include HDDs, SSDs, and other storage solutions. The company has a diversified revenue model with key streams coming from both Client Solutions and Data Center Solutions. Client Solutions revenue is driven by sales of consumer-oriented storage products, such as external drives and internal SSDs for laptops and desktops. Data Center Solutions revenue is primarily derived from sales of high-capacity storage systems and solutions tailored for enterprise customers and cloud data centers. Additionally, Western Digital benefits from strategic partnerships with major technology firms and cloud service providers, which helps expand its market reach and solidify its presence in emerging markets. The company's ongoing investment in research and development also plays a crucial role in driving innovation, allowing it to maintain competitive pricing and product differentiation, further contributing to its earnings.

Western Digital Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Geography
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Chart InsightsWestern Digital's recent revenue surge in the Americas and Asia, particularly in Q3 2024, aligns with strong data center and AI-driven demand, as highlighted in their earnings call. Despite a dip in EMEA revenue, the company's strategic focus on cloud and AI integration is driving overall growth. However, challenges in the consumer segment and tariff uncertainties remain potential risks. The company's robust financial performance, debt reduction, and shareholder returns underscore its resilience and strategic execution in a dynamic market environment.
Data provided by:The Fly

Western Digital Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 30, 2025
(Q1-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jan 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Western Digital reported strong financial performance with significant revenue and earnings growth, driven by AI-related demand. The company increased shareholder returns and effectively managed operational efficiencies, despite slightly higher operating expenses. The overall outlook remains positive with continued demand growth and strategic investments.
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue and Earnings Growth
Western Digital delivered revenue of $2.8 billion, up 27% year-over-year, and non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.78, both exceeding the high end of guidance.
Increased Shareholder Returns
The company significantly increased share repurchases to $553 million and announced a 25% increase in dividend per share to $0.125.
AI-Driven Demand
The rapid adoption of AI is driving robust demand for higher capacity drives, with top customers providing purchase orders extending through 2026 and 2027.
Strong Free Cash Flow Generation
Free cash flow for the quarter was $599 million, reflecting a strong free cash flow margin above 20%.
Positive Gross Margin Performance
Gross margin was 43.9%, up 660 basis points year-over-year, driven by a mix shift towards higher capacity drives and cost control.
Negative Updates
Operating Expenses Slightly Exceeded Guidance
Operating expenses were $381 million, slightly exceeding guidance due to higher variable compensation.
Macroeconomic Uncertainties
The company continues to navigate macroeconomic uncertainties, though specifics were not detailed.
Company Guidance
During the Western Digital First Quarter Fiscal 2026 Earnings Call, the company provided guidance indicating a robust financial performance driven by the expanding demand for data storage solutions due to AI adoption. Western Digital reported a revenue of $2.8 billion, a 27% year-over-year increase, with a non-GAAP gross margin of 43.9% and earnings per share of $1.78. The company highlighted strong free cash flow generation of $599 million and announced a 25% increase in quarterly dividends to $0.125 per share. Looking ahead to the second quarter, Western Digital anticipates revenue growth to approximately $2.9 billion, gross margins between 44% and 45%, and earnings per share of $1.88. The company also detailed its strategic investments and product developments, including the advancement of its HAMR and ePMR technologies, to meet the increasing demand for high-capacity drives fueled by AI and data-driven workloads.

Western Digital Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Western Digital demonstrates a solid financial recovery with strong profitability and cash flow metrics. Despite a revenue decline, the company has maintained healthy margins and cash flows. The balance sheet is stable, though moderate leverage could pose risks.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Western Digital's income statement shows a strong recovery with a significant improvement in gross profit margin to 39.34% and net profit margin to 21.30% in the TTM period. Despite a recent revenue decline of 9.62%, the company has managed to maintain healthy EBIT and EBITDA margins. The overall revenue growth trajectory is positive, indicating a rebound from previous periods of negative growth.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.80 in the TTM period. Return on equity has improved significantly to 35.05%, showcasing effective utilization of equity. However, the equity ratio indicates moderate leverage, suggesting potential risks if market conditions worsen.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals robust free cash flow growth of 51.68% in the TTM period, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, and the free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.83 suggests efficient conversion of earnings into cash. These metrics highlight the company's strong cash flow management.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue9.52B6.32B6.25B18.79B16.92B
Gross Profit3.69B1.77B1.39B5.87B4.52B
EBITDA1.94B243.00M289.00M3.40B2.46B
Net Income1.86B-798.00M-1.68B1.55B821.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets14.00B24.19B24.55B26.26B26.13B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.11B1.55B2.02B2.33B3.37B
Total Debt5.08B7.82B7.07B7.02B8.72B
Total Liabilities8.69B13.37B12.71B14.04B15.41B
Stockholders Equity5.31B10.82B11.84B12.22B10.72B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.28B-781.00M-1.22B773.00M895.00M
Operating Cash Flow1.69B-294.00M-408.00M1.88B1.90B
Investing Cash Flow150.00M-27.00M-762.00M-1.19B-765.00M
Financing Cash Flow-1.61B187.00M875.00M-1.72B-817.00M

Western Digital Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price181.08
Price Trends
50DMA
151.53
Positive
100DMA
122.69
Positive
200DMA
86.73
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
7.35
Positive
RSI
61.19
Neutral
STOCH
41.29
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For WDC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 181.08 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 166.42, above the 50-day MA of 151.53, and above the 200-day MA of 86.73, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 7.35 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 61.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.29 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for WDC.

Western Digital Risk Analysis

Western Digital disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Western Digital reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Western Digital Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
$61.91B26.4031.48%0.18%-16.35%316.56%
76
Outperform
$22.16B19.48125.35%1.86%2.64%4.12%
68
Neutral
$63.29B38.040.97%31.56%106.00%
64
Neutral
$22.82B182.509.27%13.18%-0.92%
61
Neutral
$37.18B12.37-10.20%1.83%8.50%-7.62%
61
Neutral
$21.35B8.775.02%4.09%-5.77%
58
Neutral
$18.57B24.9312.79%12.22%-48.34%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
WDC
Western Digital
181.08
134.74
290.76%
HPQ
HP
23.26
-8.56
-26.90%
NTAP
NetApp
111.90
-3.83
-3.31%
STX
Seagate Tech
296.36
209.29
240.37%
SMCI
Super Micro Computer
31.11
-1.29
-3.98%
PSTG
Pure Storage
69.13
5.33
8.35%

Western Digital Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Western Digital Approves Stock Plan Amendment at Meeting
Positive
Nov 24, 2025

On November 20, 2025, Western Digital Corporation held its annual stockholders meeting where the amendment and restatement of the 2005 Employee Stock Purchase Plan was approved, increasing the shares available for issuance by 8 million. Additionally, the stockholders elected eight directors, approved executive officer compensation, and ratified KPMG LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for fiscal 2026, reflecting continued support for the company’s strategic decisions and governance.

Executive/Board Changes
Western Digital Appoints New Chief Accounting Officer
Positive
Nov 3, 2025

On October 31, 2025, Western Digital Corporation announced the appointment of Brad Feller as Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer, effective November 14, 2025. Feller, who has a diverse background in financial leadership roles across various technology companies, will replace Gene M. Zamiska. This strategic appointment is accompanied by a comprehensive compensation package, including a base salary, bonuses, and stock units, reflecting the company’s commitment to strengthening its financial leadership and potentially impacting its market positioning positively.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 09, 2025