Stem, Inc. (STEM)
NYSE:STEM
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Stem Inc
(NYSE:STEM)
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Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
$9.00
▼(-16.74% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial fundamentals—negative equity, meaningful debt versus assets, and negative TTM operating/free cash flow—along with a bearish technical setup (price below key moving averages and negative MACD). These are partially offset by a better earnings-call outlook, including reaffirmed FY2026 guidance, strong non-GAAP gross margin, and continued positive adjusted EBITDA, but near-term cash flow and revenue volatility remain key risks.
Positive Factors
Recurring software & ARR growth
Growth in PowerTrack software revenue and a $61.2M ARR indicate an expanding base of recurring, high-margin revenue. A growing subscription footprint increases revenue predictability, supports upsells and retention, and underpins long-term cash flow potential as software mixes replace lumpier hardware sales.
Negative Factors
Weak balance sheet
Negative equity and debt materially constrain financing flexibility and increase solvency risk. The capital structure limits the company's ability to fund project pipelines or absorb shocks without iterative financing, potentially forcing dilutive equity raises or costly debt and hampering long-term strategic investments.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring software & ARR growth
Growth in PowerTrack software revenue and a $61.2M ARR indicate an expanding base of recurring, high-margin revenue. A growing subscription footprint increases revenue predictability, supports upsells and retention, and underpins long-term cash flow potential as software mixes replace lumpier hardware sales.
Read all positive factors
Stem Inc Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Storage AUM
Measures the total assets under management in the storage sector, indicating the scale and growth potential of this business area.
Measures the total assets under management in the storage sector, indicating the scale and growth potential of this business area.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyStem Inc (STEM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$78.73M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)146.28K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.15
Revenue Growth0.74%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees569
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)17.35
Shares Outstanding8,956,953
10 Day Avg. Volume227,620
30 Day Avg. Volume146,275
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)-0.50
Price to Sales (P/S)0.80
P/FCF Ratio18.29
Enterprise Value/Market Cap4.73
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.44
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.71
Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.74
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.38Price Target Upside14.48% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)-7.61
Revenue Forecast (FY)$160.70M
Stem Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Stem, Inc. operates as a digitally connected and intelligent energy storage network provider in the United States and internationally. It offers energy storage systems sourced from original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). The company also provides...
How the Company Makes Money
Stem primarily makes money through (1) software revenues and (2) energy storage project-related revenues. Software revenue is generally generated from licensing/subscription and services tied to its Athena platform, where customers pay to use Stem...
Stem Inc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized significant operational improvements, margin expansion, recurring software growth, product and M&A momentum, and reaffirmed full-year guidance. Offsetting items include a short-term revenue decline driven by no battery hardware resales in Q1, negative operating cash flow due to seasonal working capital timing, and managed services pressure from a supplier bankruptcy. Overall the positives around profitability, margins, PowerTrack growth, structural cost reductions and strategic product initiatives materially outweigh the near-term headwinds.Positive Updates
Positive Adjusted EBITDA Streak and Profitability Milestone
Adjusted EBITDA of $2 million in Q1 2026, representing the fourth consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA and the company's first-ever positive adjusted EBITDA in a first fiscal quarter. This is a $7 million improvement versus Q1 2025 (from negative $5 million to positive $2 million), demonstrating operating leverage.
Negative Updates
Total Revenue Decline
Total revenue in Q1 2026 was $29 million, down 11% year-over-year from $32 million in Q1 2025. The decline was entirely attributable to the absence of battery hardware resales in the quarter.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Positive Adjusted EBITDA Streak and Profitability Milestone
Adjusted EBITDA of $2 million in Q1 2026, representing the fourth consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA and the company's first-ever positive adjusted EBITDA in a first fiscal quarter. This is a $7 million improvement versus Q1 2025 (from negative $5 million to positive $2 million), demonstrating operating leverage.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed full‑year 2026 guidance: total revenue $140–$190M (software, services & edge hardware $130–$150M; up to $40M of battery hardware resales, expected weighted to H2), non‑GAAP gross margin 40%–50% (Q1 non‑GAAP gross margin was 52%, GAAP 38%), adjusted EBITDA $10–$15M (Q1 adjusted EBITDA $2M), operating cash flow $0–$10M (Q1 operating cash flow –$8M; cash $37M at quarter end), and year‑end ARR $65–$70M (Q1 ARR $61.2M; CARR $67M); additional Q1 metrics included $29M revenue, $27M bookings, $23M backlog, PowerTrack ARR up 2% sequentially (12% Y/Y), PowerTrack software revenue +16% Y/Y, solar AUM 37.5 GW and storage AUM 1.7 GWh, and management expects margins to compress toward the midpoint of the gross‑margin range as battery resales ramp while cash flow improves as bookings and billings increase.Stem Inc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
22
Negative
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 152.75M | 156.27M | 144.58M | 461.51M | 362.98M | 127.37M |
| Gross Profit | 55.48M | 59.96M | -11.06M | 3.67M | 33.09M | 1.25M |
| EBITDA | 214.48M | 207.18M | -790.40M | -79.17M | -87.68M | -62.99M |
| Net Income | 143.84M | 137.76M | -854.01M | -140.41M | -124.05M | -101.21M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 281.88M | 308.89M | 437.36M | 1.36B | 1.42B | 1.19B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 36.59M | 48.91M | 56.30M | 113.59M | 249.98M | 920.79M |
| Total Debt | 329.07M | 368.63M | 542.02M | 537.04M | 463.05M | 346.93M |
| Total Liabilities | 547.76M | 557.95M | 835.19M | 930.30M | 869.73M | 524.00M |
| Stockholders Equity | -265.88M | -249.06M | -398.37M | 426.20M | 551.63M | 667.83M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -8.38M | 6.86M | -48.42M | -225.61M | -110.13M | -111.44M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -9.99M | 6.86M | -36.65M | -207.38M | -106.03M | -101.27M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.55M | -6.76M | -3.52M | 135.73M | -543.83M | -185.23M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -7.35M | -7.41M | -8.44M | 90.24M | -9.81M | 1.03B |
Stem Inc Technical Analysis
Negative
10.81
Price Trends
10.00
Negative
12.36
Negative
15.12
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.46
Positive
38.86
Neutral
22.19
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STEM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.81 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.01, above the 50-day MA of 10.00, and below the 200-day MA of 15.12, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.46 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for STEM.
Stem Inc Risk Analysis
Stem Inc disclosed 58 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Stem Inc reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Stem Inc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $8.27B | 15.10 | 16.61% | 0.67% | 5.20% | -0.12% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
60 Neutral | $6.55B | -167.63 | 13.28% | ― | -1.64% | -6.91% | |
54 Neutral | $3.60B | -21.70 | -10.50% | ― | 10.93% | -73.80% | |
46 Neutral | $78.73M | -0.99 | -59.64% | ― | 0.74% | ― | |
43 Neutral | $65.39M | -3.32 | -113.24% | ― | 548.78% | ― |
* Utilities Sector Average
STEM
Stem Inc
8.63
-1.14
-11.65%
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Stem Inc Corporate Events
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Stem Inc Issues Regulation FD Disclosure on Financial Status
Neutral
May 6, 2026
On May 6, 2026, Stem Inc. disclosed that it had issued a press release and made it available as an exhibit to a Form 8-K, providing additional information about the company’s situation. The disclosure clarifies that this information is furni...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Stem Inc Launches New At-The-Market Equity Program
Neutral
Mar 6, 2026
On March 6, 2026, Stem, Inc. entered into an Open Market Sales Agreement with Jefferies LLC to establish an at-the-market equity offering program of up to $30 million of its common stock, to be sold from time to time on the NYSE or through other p...
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Stem Inc Issues Form 8-K Regulation FD Disclosure
Neutral
Mar 4, 2026
On March 4, 2026, Stem Inc. announced that it had issued a press release and furnished it as an exhibit to a Form 8-K, specifying that the information is provided under Item 7.01 for Regulation FD disclosure purposes. The company clarified that, u...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.