Stem, Inc. (STEM)
NYSE:STEM
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Stem Inc
(NYSE:STEM)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$8.50
▼(-2.86% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/06/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance and balance-sheet pressure (negative equity, inconsistent cash generation, and ongoing operating losses). Technicals also indicate a soft trend (below key longer-term moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting factors are constructive 2026 guidance and improving software-led fundamentals, plus a low P/E and removal of a legal overhang, but these are not yet strong enough to outweigh the elevated financial risk.
Positive Factors
Software & services momentum
A rising share of recurring software, services and edge hardware revenue (over 55% of total) strengthens durable revenue mix and margin profile. Higher recurring ARR and software-led sales reduce reliance on one-off hardware deals and support steadier cash flows and customer stickiness.
Negative Factors
Balance-sheet strain
Negative equity coupled with material debt constrains strategic optionality, increases refinancing risk, and limits the firm's ability to fund growth internally. Diminished asset cushions since 2022–2023 heighten vulnerability to future operating volatility or adverse market conditions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Software & services momentum
A rising share of recurring software, services and edge hardware revenue (over 55% of total) strengthens durable revenue mix and margin profile. Higher recurring ARR and software-led sales reduce reliance on one-off hardware deals and support steadier cash flows and customer stickiness.
Read all positive factors
Stem Inc (STEM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$70.28M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)173.44K
Price to Earnings (P/E)0.9
Beta (1Y)2.33
Revenue Growth-35.61%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees569
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.55
Shares Outstanding8,518,974
10 Day Avg. Volume125,990
30 Day Avg. Volume173,442
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)-0.50
Price to Sales (P/S)0.80
P/FCF Ratio18.29
Enterprise Value/Market Cap5.55
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.50
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.07
Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.00Price Target Upside60.00% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-7.17
Revenue Forecast (FY)$167.32M
Stem Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Stem, Inc. operates as a digitally connected and intelligent energy storage network provider in the United States and internationally. It offers energy storage systems sourced from original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). The company also provides...
How the Company Makes Money
Stem primarily makes money through (1) software revenues and (2) energy storage project-related revenues. Software revenue is generally generated from licensing/subscription and services tied to its Athena platform, where customers pay to use Stem...
Stem Inc Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Storage AUM
Measures the total assets under management in the storage sector, indicating the scale and growth potential of this business area.
Measures the total assets under management in the storage sector, indicating the scale and growth potential of this business area.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyStem Inc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized a successful transformation in 2025 with material improvements in profitability, margins, ARR and reduced operating expenses, along with product launches and international utility-scale traction. Key challenges include reliance on some one-time revenue items (DevCo and performance payouts), a sequential decline in CARR driven by a customer cancellation, continued battery hardware resale volatility that could pressure margins if opportunistically higher, and a longer sales cycle for newly launched PowerTrack EMS. On balance, operational discipline, positive adjusted EBITDA, cash generation and software-led revenue momentum outweigh the near-term risks described.Positive Updates
Full Year Revenue Growth
Total revenue grew 8% year-over-year to $156 million for full year 2025, reflecting progress against strategic goals.
Negative Updates
Dependence on One-Time DevCo and Performance Revenue
Q4 project and professional services growth was materially driven by approximately $11 million of one-time DevCo revenue; managed services growth in Q4 was partly driven by one-time performance-based revenue, creating some near-term revenue volatility.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full Year Revenue Growth
Total revenue grew 8% year-over-year to $156 million for full year 2025, reflecting progress against strategic goals.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Stem guided 2026 total revenue of $140–190 million, with $130–150 million coming from high‑margin software, services and edge hardware and up to $40 million opportunistically from battery hardware resales; non‑GAAP gross margins of 40–50% (noting higher battery resale mix would push margins toward the low end); adjusted EBITDA of $10–15 million (about 85% growth at the midpoint versus 2025’s ~$7 million); operating cash flow of $0–10 million; and ARR of $65–70 million (roughly 10% growth at the midpoint from 2025’s $61 million), while management expects PowerTrack EMS bookings to begin converting to revenue at the end of 2026 with more meaningful scale in 2027.Stem Inc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
23
Negative
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 156.27M | 144.58M | 461.51M | 362.98M | 127.37M |
| Gross Profit | 59.96M | -11.06M | 3.67M | 33.09M | 1.25M |
| EBITDA | -11.90M | -790.40M | -79.17M | -87.68M | -62.99M |
| Net Income | 137.76M | -854.01M | -140.41M | -124.05M | -101.21M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 308.89M | 437.36M | 1.36B | 1.42B | 1.19B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 48.91M | 56.30M | 113.59M | 249.98M | 920.79M |
| Total Debt | 368.63M | 542.02M | 537.04M | 463.05M | 346.93M |
| Total Liabilities | 557.95M | 835.19M | 930.30M | 869.73M | 524.00M |
| Stockholders Equity | -249.06M | -398.37M | 426.20M | 551.63M | 667.83M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 6.86M | -48.42M | -225.61M | -110.13M | -111.44M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.86M | -36.65M | -207.38M | -106.03M | -101.27M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -6.76M | -3.52M | 135.73M | -543.83M | -185.23M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -7.41M | -8.44M | 90.24M | -9.81M | 1.03B |
Stem Inc Technical Analysis
Negative
8.75
Price Trends
12.78
Negative
15.02
Negative
15.19
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.77
Negative
32.95
Neutral
24.03
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STEM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.75 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.47, below the 50-day MA of 12.78, and below the 200-day MA of 15.19, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.77 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 32.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for STEM.
Stem Inc Risk Analysis
Stem Inc disclosed 58 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Stem Inc reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Stem Inc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $6.15B | 15.10 | 16.61% | 0.67% | 6.17% | 20.86% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
62 Neutral | $4.67B | 27.11 | 18.25% | ― | 20.97% | 226.98% | |
52 Neutral | $96.79M | -4.91 | -93.10% | ― | 312.20% | ― | |
50 Neutral | $2.39B | -14.43 | -12.87% | ― | -16.15% | -324.40% | |
49 Neutral | $70.28M | 0.91 | -49.36% | ― | -35.61% | ― |
* Utilities Sector Average
STEM
Stem Inc
8.25
1.24
17.76%
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Stem Inc Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Stem Inc Launches New At-The-Market Equity Program
Neutral
Mar 6, 2026
On March 6, 2026, Stem, Inc. entered into an Open Market Sales Agreement with Jefferies LLC to establish an at-the-market equity offering program of up to $30 million of its common stock, to be sold from time to time on the NYSE or through other p...
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Stem Inc Issues Form 8-K Regulation FD Disclosure
Neutral
Mar 4, 2026
On March 4, 2026, Stem Inc. announced that it had issued a press release and furnished it as an exhibit to a Form 8-K, specifying that the information is provided under Item 7.01 for Regulation FD disclosure purposes. The company clarified that, u...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.