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Stem Inc (STEM)
NYSE:STEM

Stem Inc (STEM) AI Stock Analysis

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Stem Inc

(NYSE:STEM)

Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$7.50
▼(-0.27%Downside)
Stem Inc.'s overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges and bearish technical indicators. Despite strategic restructuring and cost-saving measures highlighted in the earnings call, the company's high leverage and negative cash flows present ongoing risks. Corporate events offer some positive outlook, but the stock remains volatile and undervalued.
Positive Factors
Cost Management
Reduction in force actions should further improve profitability, with annual cost savings of $30 million.
Financial Performance
Stem reported solid results, generating positive operating cash flow for the first time.
Strategic Initiatives
The company's software-centric strategy is beginning to show results, with strong interest in its PowerTrack offering.
Negative Factors
Cash Flow Concerns
There is concern about the company's cash balance, as the year-end finished at $52 million, leaving no room for error.
Financial Guidance
The FY 2025 guidance for Stem, Inc. is considered underwhelming with limited growth potential in software and service revenue.
Stock Market Activity
There is potential for downward pressure on the stock following its planned reverse stock split.

Stem Inc (STEM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Stem Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionStem Inc (STEM) is a leading provider of AI-driven clean energy storage solutions and services. The company operates primarily in the renewable energy sector, focusing on optimizing energy usage, reducing carbon footprints, and enhancing grid reliability through its innovative software and energy storage systems. Stem's core product, the Athena software platform, integrates with energy storage hardware to provide real-time energy optimization and management for businesses, utilities, and energy providers.
How the Company Makes MoneyStem Inc generates revenue through the sale and deployment of its energy storage systems, which are integrated with its proprietary Athena software. The company charges its customers for the initial installation and ongoing software-as-a-service (SaaS) subscriptions that enable continuous energy optimization and data analytics. Additionally, Stem enters into strategic partnerships with utility companies and renewable energy developers to expand its market reach and drive further adoption of its solutions. Revenue is also derived from performance-based contracts where Stem earns fees based on the cost savings and efficiency gains delivered to its clients.

Stem Inc Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Storage AUM
Storage AUM
Measures the total assets under management in the storage sector, indicating the scale and growth potential of this business area.
Chart InsightsStem Inc.'s Storage AUM has shown robust growth, peaking in late 2024 before a slight dip. The latest earnings call highlights a strategic pivot towards high-margin software and services, which is crucial as hardware sales decline. Despite operational challenges and revenue setbacks, the focus on PowerTrack software, with its high gross margins, and cost reduction initiatives could stabilize financial performance. However, the company faces risks with NYSE compliance and backlog adjustments, necessitating careful navigation to maintain investor confidence.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Stem Inc Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -9.40%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant progress in revenue growth, software and storage performance, and strategic restructuring, with cost-saving measures enhancing profitability. However, challenges from organizational changes and product de-emphasis were noted.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Revenue Growth
Total revenue increased by 27% year-over-year, driven by robust growth across the business.
Software Revenue Surge
Software revenue was up 17% compared to Q1 2024, reflecting strong performance from PowerTrack and increased storage software activations.
Gross Margin Achievement
A record GAAP gross margin of 32% and a near all-time high non-GAAP gross margin of 46% were achieved.
Positive Cash Flow
Generated $9 million of operating cash flow, marking the first quarter of positive operating cash flow.
Strategic Business Unit Realignment
Implemented a new structure with four distinct business units, each with full P&L responsibility, to drive strategic priorities.
Software and Storage Growth
Solar ARR increased by 10% sequentially and 24% year-over-year; storage ARR grew by 4% sequentially and 31% year-over-year.
Cost Savings Initiatives
Announced a 27% reduction in force expected to result in $30 million of annual cash cost savings, with $24 million realized in 2025.
Negative Updates
PowerBidder Pro De-emphasis
Made the decision to pause further development of PowerBidder Pro and Asset Performance Management, leading to a slight decline in storage AUM.
Organizational Challenges
Undergone significant organizational changes, including workforce reduction, which may create uncertainty and challenges among team members.
Company Guidance
In the first quarter of 2025, Stem, Inc. made notable progress in aligning its operations with strategic priorities, including implementing a new internal structure with four distinct business units: Software, Professional Services, Managed Services, and OEM Hardware. This restructuring is expected to enhance efficiency and optimize capital allocation, with each unit responsible for its financial performance, including metrics like EBITDA and cash flow. The company announced a 27% workforce reduction, anticipated to save $30 million annually and deliver a $24 million cash benefit within the year. Stem's focus on growing software revenue was evident, as solar Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) increased by 24% year-over-year and storage ARR by 31%. The firm reported a record non-GAAP gross margin of 46% and achieved positive operating cash flow for the first time. Stem reaffirmed its 2025 guidance across all metrics, despite economic uncertainties, maintaining its strategic emphasis on software and services to drive profitability and growth.

Stem Inc Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Stem Inc. faces significant financial challenges with negative net income, deeply negative EBIT and EBITDA margins, high leverage, and negative free cash flow, indicating urgent need for financial restructuring and strategic realignment.
Income Statement
30
Negative
Stem Inc. shows significant challenges in profitability with consistently negative net income and declining gross margins. Revenue growth is volatile, with recent TTM figures showing an increase, but past annual reports indicate fluctuation. EBIT and EBITDA margins are deeply negative, suggesting ongoing operational inefficiencies.
Balance Sheet
25
Negative
The company's balance sheet reveals high leverage with a negative stockholders' equity, indicating potential solvency issues. The debt-to-equity ratio cannot be calculated due to negative equity, highlighting financial instability. The equity ratio is negative, reflecting liabilities exceeding assets.
Cash Flow
35
Negative
Cash flow analysis indicates negative free cash flow, with operating cash flow also being negative, suggesting liquidity challenges. Although there is a slight improvement in operating cash flow relative to net income, the free cash flow remains a concern due to high capital expenditures.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue151.63M144.58M461.51M362.98M127.37M36.31M
Gross Profit25.91M-11.06M3.67M33.09M1.25M-3.91M
EBITDA-754.85M-790.40M-79.17M-87.68M-62.99M-116.99M
Net Income-806.71M-854.01M-140.41M-124.05M-119.50M-156.12M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets405.08M437.36M1.36B1.42B1.19B205.85M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments58.58M56.30M113.59M249.98M920.79M6.94M
Total Debt539.03M542.02M537.04M463.05M331.65M106.28M
Total Liabilities822.00M835.19M930.30M869.73M524.00M383.26M
Stockholders Equity-417.46M-398.37M426.20M551.63M667.83M-177.41M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-39.27M-48.42M-225.61M-126.90M-111.44M-45.71M
Operating Cash Flow-27.49M-36.65M-207.38M-106.03M-101.27M-33.67M
Investing Cash Flow-11.78M-3.52M135.73M-544.37M-185.23M-12.04M
Financing Cash Flow-14.40M-8.44M90.24M-9.27M1.03B40.29M

Stem Inc Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price7.52
Price Trends
50DMA
9.49
Negative
100DMA
9.04
Negative
200DMA
9.53
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.77
Positive
RSI
50.82
Neutral
STOCH
40.77
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STEM, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 7.52 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.78, below the 50-day MA of 9.49, and below the 200-day MA of 9.53, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.77 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for STEM.

Stem Inc Risk Analysis

Stem Inc disclosed 58 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Stem Inc reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Stem Inc Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (50)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
71
Outperform
$1.01B-15.69%8.38%-278.88%
67
Neutral
$6.33B676.760.46%9.05%
PGPGY
65
Neutral
$1.68B-77.37%25.84%-248.65%
59
Neutral
$297.56M-74.75%21.81%28.80%
51
Neutral
$654.08M-4.06%
50
Neutral
AU$1.49B1.75-28.24%3.26%16.24%-7.89%
47
Neutral
$62.79M-6139.13%-63.86%-364.20%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
STEM
Stem Inc
8.61
-14.19
-62.24%
YEXT
Yext
8.26
3.08
59.46%
CCCS
CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings
9.75
-1.44
-12.87%
CGNT
Cognyte Software
9.18
1.59
20.95%
PGY
Pagaya Technologies Ltd
22.16
8.86
66.62%
BLZE
Backblaze
5.61
-0.62
-9.95%

Stem Inc Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Stem Inc Announces New CFO Appointment
Neutral
Jul 2, 2025

On July 2, 2025, Stem, Inc. announced a significant leadership change with the resignation of Mr. Doran Hole as Chief Financial Officer, effective July 17, 2025. Mr. Hole will transition to an advisory role until July 31, 2025, to ensure a smooth handover. Concurrently, Mr. Brian Musfeldt has been appointed as the new CFO, effective July 17, 2025. Mr. Musfeldt brings extensive experience from his previous roles at ikeGPS and Also Energy, Inc., among others. His compensation package includes a base salary, bonuses, and stock options, reflecting the company’s commitment to aligning executive incentives with long-term performance goals.

The most recent analyst rating on (STEM) stock is a Hold with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stem Inc stock, see the STEM Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Stem Inc’s Strategic Exchange Agreement on June 2025
Neutral
Jun 30, 2025

On June 27, 2025, Stem, Inc. entered into a privately negotiated exchange agreement with certain holders of its 2028 and 2030 Green Convertible Senior Notes. The company exchanged a significant amount of these notes and cash for new Senior Secured PIK Toggle Notes due 2030 and warrants for common stock. This strategic financial maneuver is expected to impact the company’s liquidity and capital structure, potentially affecting its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (STEM) stock is a Hold with a $1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stem Inc stock, see the STEM Stock Forecast page.

Stock Split
Stem Inc Approves 1-for-20 Reverse Stock Split
Neutral
Jun 16, 2025

Stem Inc.’s Board of Directors has approved a reverse stock split at a ratio of 1-for-20 and reduced the total number of authorized shares from 500 million to 250 million, effective June 23, 2025. This move is expected to impact the company’s stock trading and equity incentive plans, with the stock commencing trading on a split-adjusted basis on the New York Stock Exchange on the effective date.

The most recent analyst rating on (STEM) stock is a Hold with a $1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stem Inc stock, see the STEM Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsStock Split
Stem Inc’s Key Proposals Approved at Annual Meeting
Positive
Jun 5, 2025

At the 2025 Annual Meeting held on June 4, Stem, Inc.’s stockholders approved several key proposals, including the election of two Class I directors, an amendment to increase shares in the 2024 Equity Incentive Plan by 4,000,000, and a reverse stock split. These decisions are expected to impact the company’s operational flexibility and market positioning positively. Additionally, the stockholders ratified Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent auditor for 2025, and approved amendments to the company’s Certificate of Incorporation, which include a reduction in the total number of authorized shares.

The most recent analyst rating on (STEM) stock is a Hold with a $0.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stem Inc stock, see the STEM Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Stem Inc Issues Press Release on April 29
Neutral
Apr 29, 2025

On April 29, 2025, Stem Inc issued a press release, which was included in their Form 8-K filing. The release is not considered filed for purposes of the Exchange Act or incorporated into any Securities Act filing unless specifically referenced.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 03, 2025