Stem Inc (STEM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $96.01M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 214.82K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 0.9
• Beta (1Y): 2.30
• Revenue Growth: -35.61%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 569
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Software - Infrastructure
• EPS (TTM): -1.55
• Shares Outstanding: 8,518,974
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 267,553
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 214,823
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): -0.50
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.80
• P/FCF Ratio: 18.29
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 4.31
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.65
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.91
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.14
• 1Y Price Target: $14.00
• Price Target Upside: 15.61% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): -7.18
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $168.41M

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: $12.00 ▼(-0.91% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/06/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/06/26

The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance and balance-sheet pressure (negative equity, inconsistent cash generation, and ongoing operating losses). Technicals also indicate a soft trend (below key longer-term moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting factors are constructive 2026 guidance and improving software-led fundamentals, plus a low P/E and removal of a legal overhang, but these are not yet strong enough to outweigh the elevated financial risk.

Positive Factors

Recurring software & services revenue

A majority software-and-services mix with 25% YoY growth and >55% of revenue shifts Stem toward higher-margin, recurring streams. That improves revenue predictability, supports ARR expansion, and reduces exposure to capital-intensive hardware cycles, aiding durable cash generation over time.

Margin and EBITDA improvement

Sustained margin improvement and the first positive adjusted EBITDA and operating cash flow mark a structural inflection versus prior cash burn. Higher gross margins and permanent cost reductions increase the odds of self-funding growth and give management flexibility to invest in software and EMS scale.

Product launches & international utility traction

New PowerTrack products and an international 100 MWh utility engagement expand Stem’s addressable market and validate utility-scale product-market fit. Successful deployments abroad and AI-driven features create a durable pathway for larger, higher-value contracts as EMS bookings convert in future years.

Negative Factors

Negative equity and sizable debt

Persistent negative equity and meaningful debt strain financial flexibility and increase refinancing and covenant risk. With limited equity cushion, external capital needs or higher interest costs could dilute returns or constrain investments in product rollouts and international expansion over the medium term.

Revenue volatility and inconsistent profitability

An uneven revenue trajectory and historical operating losses make forecasting and scaling riskier. Periodic swings and reliance on non‑operating items for reported profits reduce earnings quality, complicate long-term planning, and raise execution risk as Stem pursues sustained software-led growth.

Dependence on opportunistic battery resales

Relying on opportunistic battery resales for revenue introduces margin and cash volatility and can mask core organic demand trends. If hardware resale becomes a recurring crutch, it undermines the software-led margin profile and risks swings in reported gross margin and cash flow from year to year.

Stem Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Stem, Inc. operates as a digitally connected and intelligent energy storage network provider in the United States and internationally. It offers energy storage systems sourced from original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). The company also provides Athena, an artificial intelligence platform, which offers battery hardware and software-enabled services to operate the energy storage systems. In addition, it offers system design and engineering services, supply chain management, energy storage value stream optimization, warranty and preventive maintenance plan management, operation and maintenance reporting, and program enrollment and incentive management services. The company serves commercial and industrial enterprises, independent power producers, renewable project developers, and utilities and grid operators. Stem, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Stem Inc generates revenue primarily through the sale and deployment of its energy storage systems and software solutions. The company earns money by providing energy storage hardware, which is often complemented by its proprietary software that enables clients to optimize energy consumption and storage. Additionally, Stem engages in power purchase agreements (PPAs) and long-term contracts with clients, ensuring a steady revenue stream from ongoing services. Significant partnerships with utility companies and other energy providers further enhance its revenue potential by facilitating access to broader markets and enabling collaborative projects that drive adoption of its technologies.

Stem Inc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial profile remains high risk: revenue volatility and persistent operating losses outweigh improvements in 2025 gross margin recovery and the return to slightly positive operating/free cash flow. Balance-sheet strain (negative equity with sizable debt) limits flexibility and raises financing risk.

Income Statement

Results show meaningful volatility and an inconsistent path to sustainable profitability. Revenue declined in 2025 (-5.3%) after a sharp contraction from 2023 to 2024, pointing to an uneven demand/backlog conversion profile. Gross margin improved to ~38% in 2025 (from negative in 2024), but operating profitability remains weak with deeply negative EBITDA margins in most years. Net income swung to a large profit in 2025 (high net margin), but given the continued operating losses, the quality of earnings looks mixed and likely driven by non-operating items rather than core execution.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is pressured by negative equity in 2024 and 2025, which raises financial risk and limits flexibility. Total debt remains sizable (~$322M in 2025) and leverage metrics become less meaningful when equity is negative, but the setup still indicates a capital structure under strain. Assets have also stepped down sharply since 2022–2023 levels, suggesting a smaller operating base and less cushion against ongoing losses.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has been inconsistent and generally weak. Operating and free cash flow were materially negative from 2020–2024, then turned slightly positive in 2025 (~$6.9M), which is a constructive inflection but not yet strong enough to signal durable self-funding. The sharp decline in free cash flow growth in 2025 highlights volatility, and prior years show meaningful cash burn that would typically require external capital or balance-sheet capacity to sustain.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	156.27M	144.58M	461.51M	362.98M	127.37M
Gross Profit	59.96M	-11.06M	3.67M	33.09M	1.25M
EBITDA	-11.90M	-790.40M	-79.17M	-87.68M	-62.99M
Net Income	137.76M	-854.01M	-140.41M	-124.05M	-101.21M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	308.89M	437.36M	1.36B	1.42B	1.19B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	48.91M	56.30M	113.59M	249.98M	920.79M
Total Debt	368.63M	542.02M	537.04M	463.05M	346.93M
Total Liabilities	557.95M	835.19M	930.30M	869.73M	524.00M
Stockholders Equity	-249.06M	-398.37M	426.20M	551.63M	667.83M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	6.86M	-48.42M	-225.61M	-110.13M	-111.44M
Operating Cash Flow	6.86M	-36.65M	-207.38M	-106.03M	-101.27M
Investing Cash Flow	-6.76M	-3.52M	135.73M	-543.83M	-185.23M
Financing Cash Flow	-7.41M	-8.44M	90.24M	-9.81M	1.03B

Stem Inc Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 12.11
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STEM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 12.11 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.20, below the 50-day MA of 14.71, and below the 200-day MA of 15.19, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.34 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for STEM.

Stem Inc Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ENS	77 Outperform	$5.96B	15.10	16.61%	0.67%	6.17%	20.86%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.65B	18.10	5.60%	3.62%	6.62%	11.55%
ENPH	62 Neutral	$5.36B	27.11	18.25%	―	20.97%	226.98%
ZENA	52 Neutral	$112.53M	-4.91	-93.10%	―	312.20%	―
STEM	49 Neutral	$96.01M	0.91	-49.36%	―	-35.61%	―
FLNC	46 Neutral	$2.89B	-14.43	-12.87%	―	-16.15%	-324.40%

Stem Inc Corporate Events

Stem Inc Issues Form 8-K Regulation FD Disclosure

On March 4, 2026, Stem Inc. announced that it had issued a press release and furnished it as an exhibit to a Form 8-K, specifying that the information is provided under Item 7.01 for Regulation FD disclosure purposes. The company clarified that, under applicable Exchange Act rules, the furnished information is not deemed filed and will not be automatically incorporated into Securities Act filings unless specifically referenced, and directed investors to separate disclosures on results of operations and financial condition.

This approach underscores Stem Inc.’s effort to manage how its disclosures are treated for liability and filing purposes, while still making information available to the market through the Form 8-K process. The delineation between furnished and filed information can affect how investors and other stakeholders assess the legal weight and formal status of the company’s communications about its financial condition and operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (STEM) stock is a Hold with a $19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stem Inc stock, see the STEM Stock Forecast page.

Stem Inc. Securities Class Action Dismissed With Prejudice

On December 17, 2025, the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California dismissed with prejudice all claims in a putative securities class action against Stem, Inc. and several of its former officers, directors and employees, ending the federal securities lawsuit captioned In re Stem, Inc. Sec. Litig., Case No. 23-CV-02329-MMC. The ruling closes a significant legal overhang for the company by preventing the plaintiffs from refiling these claims, potentially improving Stem’s risk profile and reducing prospective litigation-related costs and distractions for management and shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (STEM) stock is a Hold with a $22.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stem Inc stock, see the STEM Stock Forecast page.

Stem Inc Announces New Chief Accounting Officer

On December 11, 2025, Stem, Inc. announced that Chief Accounting Officer Mr. Rahul Shukla will step down on December 19, 2025, with a separation agreement being negotiated. The board has appointed Mr. Jeffrey Cabot as the new Chief Accounting Officer, effective January 5, 2026. Mr. Cabot, who has extensive experience in similar roles at Oak View Group, Air Methods Corporation, and Sonoco Products Company, will receive a comprehensive compensation package, including a base salary, equity awards, and incentive bonuses. This leadership change is expected to impact the company’s financial operations and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (STEM) stock is a Hold with a $22.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stem Inc stock, see the STEM Stock Forecast page.