Stellar Bancorp (STEL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.51B
• Dividend Yield: 1.84%
• Average Volume (3M): 244.73K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.82
• Revenue Growth: -4.40%
• EPS Growth: -8.80%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,054
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.58
• Shares Outstanding: 51,187,492
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 238,155
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 244,731
• PEG Ratio: -1.08
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.94
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.43
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.86
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.97
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.43
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.51
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.26
• 1Y Price Target: $32.50
• Price Target Upside: 7.51% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $33.00 ▲(9.16% Upside)

Stellar Bancorp's overall stock score is driven by its solid financial performance and fair valuation. While the earnings call highlighted some positive strategic developments, near-term pressures such as increased expenses and decreased net income weigh on the score. Technical analysis suggests a cautious outlook with mixed signals.

Stellar Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Stellar Bancorp (STEL) is a financial services holding company based in the United States, primarily engaged in providing a wide range of banking and financial products. The company operates through its subsidiary, which offers personal and commercial banking services, including deposits, loans, mortgages, and wealth management solutions. Stellar Bancorp focuses on serving individuals, small to medium-sized enterprises, and corporate clients, emphasizing customer service and innovative financial solutions in its operations.

How the Company Makes Money

Stellar Bancorp generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and mortgages, which are funded by customer deposits and other borrowings. Key revenue streams include interest on commercial and consumer loans, as well as fees from mortgage origination and servicing. Additionally, the company earns non-interest income from services such as wealth management, transaction fees, and investment services. Significant partnerships with fintech companies and other financial institutions enhance its service offerings and customer reach, contributing to overall earnings.

Stellar Bancorp Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Stellar Bancorp demonstrates a solid financial position with strong profitability margins and a conservative balance sheet. While revenue growth has been a challenge, the company maintains operational efficiency and effective cash flow management. Continued focus on revenue growth and cash flow optimization will be crucial for sustaining long-term financial health.

Income Statement

Stellar Bancorp shows a stable income statement with a strong gross profit margin of 69.2% TTM, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has slightly decreased to 16.9% TTM, reflecting a decline in profitability. Revenue growth has been negative at -1.26% TTM, which is a concern for future earnings potential. Despite this, the EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy at 21.3% and 26.3% TTM, respectively, showcasing operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is robust with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.042 TTM, indicating conservative leverage. Return on equity is moderate at 6.3% TTM, suggesting decent profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio stands at 15.6%, reflecting a solid capital structure with a good proportion of equity financing.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a positive free cash flow growth rate of 6.43% TTM, indicating improved cash generation. The free cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 97.7% TTM, suggesting efficient conversion of earnings into cash. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is low, highlighting potential issues in cash flow management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	601.77M	625.45M	615.38M	343.35M	261.75M	249.92M
Gross Profit	416.54M	433.92M	452.38M	258.60M	239.45M	183.47M
EBITDA	158.18M	176.99M	196.35M	76.78M	107.44M	63.61M
Net Income	101.94M	115.00M	130.50M	51.43M	81.55M	45.53M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	10.63B	10.91B	10.65B	10.90B	7.10B	3.95B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.57B	2.10B	1.79B	2.18B	2.53B	738.69M
Total Debt	70.20M	70.11M	159.76M	173.29M	212.94M	66.45M
Total Liabilities	8.97B	9.30B	9.13B	9.52B	6.29B	3.40B
Stockholders Equity	1.65B	1.61B	1.52B	1.38B	816.47M	546.45M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	85.54M	127.96M	161.36M	105.25M	104.45M	53.88M
Operating Cash Flow	87.58M	132.62M	168.22M	109.07M	107.38M	61.06M
Investing Cash Flow	244.04M	246.09M	295.25M	73.76M	-754.82M	-961.10M
Financing Cash Flow	-119.39M	133.27M	-435.94M	-568.63M	982.19M	976.56M

Stellar Bancorp Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 30.23
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STEL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 30.23 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.77, below the 50-day MA of 30.34, and above the 200-day MA of 28.50, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.40 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for STEL.

Stellar Bancorp Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
STEL	71 Outperform	$1.51B	14.81	6.38%	1.84%	-4.40%	-8.80%
SRCE	71 Outperform	$1.49B	9.97	12.65%	2.48%	5.09%	15.78%
GABC	71 Outperform	$1.47B	13.68	10.75%	2.94%	30.45%	3.13%
NBHC	71 Outperform	$1.36B	11.35	9.06%	3.19%	-2.46%	-1.98%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
LKFN	63 Neutral	$1.49B	15.41	13.50%	3.40%	-2.90%	-1.47%
CLBK	53 Neutral	$1.57B	103.10	1.34%	―	-3.60%	-8.63%

Stellar Bancorp Corporate Events

Stellar Bancorp’s Mixed Q3 Earnings: Growth Amid Challenges

Stellar Bancorp Inc. recently held its earnings call, revealing a mixed performance for the third quarter. The company showcased positive developments in deposit growth, net interest income, and loan origination. However, these were countered by challenges such as decreased net income, higher expenses, and increased loan payoffs. Despite these near-term pressures, Stellar Bancorp’s strategic position remains robust.

Stellar Bancorp Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results

Stellar Bancorp reported its third quarter 2025 financial results, showing a slight decrease in net income to $25.7 million from $26.4 million in the previous quarter. The company highlighted improved net interest income and margin, growth in deposits, and a strengthened balance sheet. Stellar has been repositioning its loan portfolio to reduce exposure to non-relationship real estate commitments and increase the mix of commercial and industrial (C&I) and real estate loans. The bank’s credit quality remains strong, and it is well-positioned to capitalize on merger-related disruptions in its Texas markets. The company’s total assets increased to $10.63 billion, supported by core deposit growth, while total loans decreased to $7.17 billion. Stellar also completed the redemption of $30 million of subordinated debt, further solidifying its capital position.

The most recent analyst rating on (STEL) stock is a Buy with a $33.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stellar Bancorp stock, see the STEL Stock Forecast page.

Stellar Bancorp Announces Redemption of Subordinated Notes

On August 29, 2025, Stellar Bancorp, Inc. announced its plan to redeem $30 million of its $60 million 4.70% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Subordinated Notes due 2029. The redemption is set for October 1, 2025, at a price equal to 100% of the principal amount plus any accrued interest, impacting the company’s financial obligations and potentially its market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (STEL) stock is a Buy with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stellar Bancorp stock, see the STEL Stock Forecast page.

Stellar Bancorp Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend

On August 27, 2025, Stellar Bancorp‘s Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.14 per share, payable on September 30, 2025, to shareholders recorded by September 15, 2025. This announcement underscores the company’s commitment to returning value to its shareholders and may positively impact investor sentiment and the company’s market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (STEL) stock is a Buy with a $33.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stellar Bancorp stock, see the STEL Stock Forecast page.