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Sasol Ltd (SSL)
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Sasol (SSL) AI Stock Analysis

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SSL

Sasol

(NYSE:SSL)

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Outperform 72 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$8.00
▲(28.62% Upside)
Sasol's overall stock score of 72 reflects a company with strong technical momentum and reasonable valuation, offset by mixed financial performance and operational challenges. The earnings call highlighted significant achievements in cash flow and debt reduction, but also noted areas needing improvement, such as EBITDA growth and operational efficiency.

Sasol (SSL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Sasol Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSasol Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated chemical and energy company in South Africa. The company operates through six segments: Mining, Gas, Fuels, Chemicals Africa, Chemicals America, and Chemicals Eurasia. It offers acetate, acrylate monomer, ammonia, carbon, chlor alkali, explosive, fertilizer, glycol ether, hydrocarbon blend, inorganic, ketone, mining, polymer, and wax chemicals, as well as lacquer thinners, light alcohols, and phenolics or cresylic acids. The company also markets and sells brick, electrical, engine, hand, non-ferrous, and window cleaners, as well as parts wash products and super soaps; degreasers; bitumen, fuel oils, lubricants, motor fuels, and gas-to-liquid fuels; and other fuels, such as illuminating paraffin, light cycle and distillate oils, light straight run fuels, and synthetic paraffinic kerosene. In addition, it wholesales diesel and petrol; operates coal mines; offers engineering services; and develops lower carbon solutions. Further, the company explores, develops, produces, markets, and distributes natural gas and related products through pipelines. It serves adhesive, agriculture and forestry, automotive and transportation, aviation, burner fuel, chemical, construction and material, corrosion protection, electrical and electronic, flavor and fragrance, furniture, health and medical, household and consumer goods, industrial product, lubricant, manufacturing, mining, packaging, paint and coating, personal care, pharmaceutical, plastic and polymer, publishing and ink, pulp and paper, rubber and tyre, specialty graphite, steel and foundry, textile and leather, water treatment, and other industries. Sasol Limited was founded in 1950 and is headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa.
How the Company Makes MoneySasol generates revenue through multiple channels, primarily by producing and selling synthetic fuels derived from coal and natural gas, which are essential for transportation and industrial use. The company's chemicals segment also contributes significantly to its earnings, with a diverse portfolio of products such as polymers, solvents, and other specialty chemicals used in various industries. Sasol benefits from its integrated business model, which allows it to optimize its production processes and reduce costs. Key revenue streams include sales from synthetic fuels, chemical products, and gas supply agreements. Additionally, Sasol engages in strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its operational capabilities and market reach, contributing to its overall profitability. Factors such as global oil prices, demand for chemical products, and sustainability initiatives also play a critical role in influencing the company's financial performance.

Sasol Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 25, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 02, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed picture, with notable achievements in free cash flow improvement, deleveraging, and renewable energy progress. However, these were offset by challenges such as EBITDA decline, a tragic fatality, and production shortfalls in Secunda due to operational issues. The sentiment reflects a balanced outlook with clear areas of success and ongoing challenges in the operational environment.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Improved Free Cash Flow
Free cash flow increased to almost ZAR 12.6 billion, a 75% improvement compared to the prior year.
Deleveraging Success
Net debt reduced to USD 3.7 billion, achieving the target of staying under USD 4 billion.
Renewable Energy Progress
Secured more than 900 megawatts of renewable energy in South Africa, supporting long-term decarbonization goals.
Safety Milestone
First fatality-free financial year for Sasol Mining, marking a significant safety achievement.
International Chemicals EBITDA Increase
Adjusted EBITDA for International Chemicals increased by more than $120 million despite market downturns.
Negative Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Decline
Adjusted EBITDA for the period was down 14% to ZAR 52 billion due to lower production volumes and operational setbacks.
Tragic Fatality
Despite improvements, there was a tragic fatality in financial year '25, highlighting ongoing safety challenges.
Secunda Volume Shortfall
Secunda volumes ended marginally below target due to coal quality and gasifier availability challenges.
Chemical Market Downturn
Prolonged downturn in the chemical market impacting International Chemicals segment, though mitigated by internal measures.
Higher Effective Tax Rate
Effective tax rate increased to around 37%, impacted by deductions not permissible from a tax perspective.
Company Guidance
In the call, Sasol provided guidance on several key financial and operational metrics for the fiscal year 2025. The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of ZAR 52 billion, a decrease of 14% from the previous year, alongside an improved free cash flow generation of more than 70% compared to the prior year. Sasol also managed to reduce its net debt to $3.7 billion, achieving its target of staying under $4 billion. The Southern Africa value chain's breakeven price was $59 a barrel, supported by disciplined cost and capital management. International Chemicals saw an adjusted EBITDA increase of over $120 million, and the group achieved a record low net debt level since 2016, reducing it by 11%. Furthermore, Sasol's emissions reduction roadmap is on track, with over 900 megawatts in renewable energy secured. The company plans to meet its FY '26 breakeven target of $55 to $60 per barrel and is aiming for adjusted EBITDA between $450 million and $550 million for International Chemicals in FY '26. The organization has also invested ZAR 600 million in social programs, contributing ZAR 44 billion in taxes and ZAR 100 million in job creation and support for small businesses, demonstrating significant social and economic impact.

Sasol Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Sasol's financial performance shows mixed results. The income statement reflects stable gross profit margins but volatile net profit margins, with a significant loss in 2024. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, and operational efficiency is under pressure. The balance sheet indicates improved leverage management but low return on equity. Cash flow analysis reveals challenges in free cash flow growth, though operating cash flow generation is decent.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Sasol's income statement shows a mixed performance. The gross profit margin has been relatively stable, but the net profit margin has been volatile, with a significant loss in 2024. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a decline in 2025. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have decreased over the years, indicating pressure on operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a moderate financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved from 2020 to 2025, indicating better leverage management. However, the return on equity has been low, suggesting limited profitability on shareholders' investments. The equity ratio is stable, showing a balanced asset structure.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash flow analysis reveals challenges in free cash flow growth, with negative growth in recent years. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates decent cash generation relative to earnings, but the free cash flow to net income ratio suggests room for improvement in converting earnings to cash.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue260.93B249.10B275.11B289.70B272.75B201.91B
Gross Profit115.14B105.95B121.71B122.32B135.43B104.42B
EBITDA52.54B35.62B57.88B64.47B43.29B43.29B
Net Income-49.26B6.77B-44.27B8.80B38.96B9.03B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets367.66B359.56B364.98B433.84B419.55B360.74B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments36.72B46.66B47.56B53.93B43.14B31.23B
Total Debt134.18B120.67B135.16B138.69B119.36B116.85B
Total Liabilities215.18B201.94B217.55B232.31B226.35B208.27B
Stockholders Equity148.11B152.43B143.00B196.90B188.62B146.49B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow13.11B12.89B7.31B18.45B17.16B17.72B
Operating Cash Flow42.30B38.31B37.38B49.18B40.30B34.09B
Investing Cash Flow-29.44B-25.89B-30.66B-28.23B-15.08B25.09B
Financing Cash Flow-15.99B-16.61B-14.60B-12.57B-15.00B-58.31B

Sasol Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price6.22
Price Trends
50DMA
6.07
Positive
100DMA
5.37
Positive
200DMA
4.83
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.01
Positive
RSI
43.95
Neutral
STOCH
17.26
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SSL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 6.22 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.69, above the 50-day MA of 6.07, and above the 200-day MA of 4.83, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.26 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SSL.

Sasol Risk Analysis

Sasol disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Sasol reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Sasol Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
72
Outperform
$4.01B10.784.56%2.00%-6.73%
70
Neutral
$7.20B8.8014.26%5.27%1.60%-3.97%
63
Neutral
$23.48B18.4413.34%2.62%-10.59%-7.79%
55
Neutral
$10.22B-8.69-9.08%2.00%-33.05%-97.63%
55
Neutral
$15.79B64.382.19%11.05%-14.12%-89.22%
52
Neutral
$9.88B-145.45-0.64%2.73%-3.00%-124.79%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SSL
Sasol
6.22
-0.74
-10.63%
ALB
Albemarle
81.08
-10.99
-11.94%
EMN
Eastman Chemical
63.05
-42.71
-40.38%
LYB
LyondellBasell
49.04
-38.76
-44.15%
PPG
PPG Industries
105.11
-22.46
-17.61%
WLK
Westlake Corporation
77.06
-67.14
-46.56%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 04, 2025