tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
LyondellBasell (LYB)
NYSE:LYB

LyondellBasell (LYB) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
1,611 Followers

Top Page

LY

LyondellBasell

(NYSE:LYB)

Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$64.00
▲(4.71%Upside)
LyondellBasell's stock reflects moderate overall performance with strong cash flow and attractive valuation balancing out challenges in revenue and market conditions. Strategic initiatives and corporate actions underline future potential, but current market volatility and operational issues pose risks.
Positive Factors
Dividends
LYB also continued to opportunistically buy back stock while noting the dividend as top priority, a view it sees unchanged going ahead.
Financial Health
LyondellBasell is in a relatively good position with cash on hand, manageable leverage, and capex needs despite entering a downturn phase.
Valuation
The current valuation of LyondellBasell Industries remains attractive on mid-cycle EBITDA when the cycle turns.
Negative Factors
Earnings Pressure
LYB's earnings are pressured by higher costs and continued new global supply.
Industry Challenges
Polyethylene and polypropylene markets are seen as oversupplied, potentially taking years to rebalance.
Market Uncertainty
The ongoing uncertainty in the market around tariffs is expected to continue weighing on US PE fundamentals.

LyondellBasell (LYB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

LyondellBasell Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionLyondellBasell Industries N.V. operates as a chemical company in the United States, Germany, Mexico, Italy, Poland, France, Japan, China, the Netherlands, and internationally. The company operates in six segments: Olefins and Polyolefins Americas; Olefins and Polyolefins Europe, Asia, International; Intermediates and Derivatives; Advanced Polymer Solutions; Refining; and Technology. It produces and markets olefins and co-products; polyolefins; polyethylene products, which consist of high density polyethylene, low density polyethylene, and linear low density polyethylene; and polypropylene (PP) products, such as PP homopolymers and copolymers. The company also produces and sells propylene oxide and its derivatives; oxyfuels and related products; and intermediate chemicals, such as styrene monomers, acetyls, ethylene glycols, and ethylene oxides and derivatives. In addition, it produces and markets compounds and solutions, such as polypropylene compounds, engineered plastics, masterbatches, engineered composites, colors, and powders; and advanced polymers. Further, the company refines crude oil and other crude oils of varied types and sources into gasoline and distillates; develops and licenses chemical and polyolefin process technologies; and manufactures and sells polyolefin catalysts. LyondellBasell Industries N.V. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyLyondellBasell makes money through its diversified operations in the production and sale of chemicals and plastics. The company's revenue model is primarily based on the manufacturing and distribution of polyolefins, which are high-demand materials used in various industries for packaging, construction, automotive, and consumer goods. Additionally, LyondellBasell generates revenue from its intermediates and derivatives segment, which produces chemicals like propylene oxide and ethylene glycol, essential for making products like antifreeze, solvents, and coatings. The refining segment contributes to its earnings by processing crude oil into refined products such as gasoline and diesel. Key revenue streams include the sale of these products to industrial and commercial customers globally. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its production capabilities and market reach. Factors such as global economic conditions, fluctuations in raw material prices, and regulatory changes can significantly impact LyondellBasell's earnings.

LyondellBasell Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 25, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 5.73%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 01, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed outlook. While there were notable achievements in cost reduction, safety performance, and strategic project milestones, these were counterbalanced by significant impacts from market volatility, trade challenges, and operational downtimes. The company remains confident in its strategy to emerge stronger from the downturn, but current conditions present challenges that temper this optimism.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Safety Performance
LyondellBasell achieved a March year-to-date total recordable incident rate of 0.12, improving on its very low rates from 2023 and 2024.
Portfolio Management Reduces Costs
The portfolio management activities since 2023 have reduced annual fixed cost expenditures by approximately $300 million net of onetime costs.
Cash Improvement and Cost Reduction Plans
In response to the current market environment, LyondellBasell launched a $500 million cash improvement plan for 2025, including a $100 million reduction in capital expenditures and $200 million in fixed cost savings.
Flex-2 Project Milestone
The Flex-2 project reached a final investment decision milestone, with an expected EBITDA benefit of approximately $150 million per year post-startup and a strong IRR in the mid-teens.
Strong Cash Conversion
LyondellBasell converted EBITDA into cash at a rate of 87% over the past 12 months, above its long-term target of 80%.
Negative Updates
Significant Turnaround Impact
First quarter profitability was impacted by a significant turnaround of the Channelview complex and planned and unplanned downtime, reducing EBITDA by $200 million.
Challenging European Market
Despite improved cracker utilization, European market outlook remains uncertain due to potential impacts from trade volatility and low economic indicators.
Weak Demand in China
Continued weakness in China due to low demand, high inventories, and a sluggish housing market, along with reduced licensing sales indicating a slowdown in new polyethylene capacity projects.
Tariff and Trade Volatility
Increased trade policy volatility is expected to shift trade flows and result in near-term trade disruptions, particularly affecting U.S. polyethylene exports.
Company Guidance
During the LyondellBasell teleconference, management provided guidance on several key metrics for 2025, emphasizing strategic cost management and growth initiatives amidst challenging market conditions. The company aims to unlock $1 billion in recurring annual EBITDA by the end of the year, with $50 million coming from fixed cost reductions. Additional fixed cost savings of at least $200 million are targeted as part of a $500 million cash improvement plan, which also includes a $100 million reduction in capital expenditures and a $200 million reduction in working capital targets. The plan involves optimizing operations and enhancing cash flow, with strategic projects like Flex-2 and MoReTec-1 prioritized. Despite ongoing market volatility and trade uncertainties, LyondellBasell remains focused on maintaining robust shareholder returns, having returned approximately $500 million to shareholders during the first quarter through dividends and share repurchases.

LyondellBasell Financial Statement Overview

Summary
LyondellBasell shows challenges in revenue and profit margins, impacting its income statement. The balance sheet demonstrates moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.03, and cash flow remains strong, highlighting efficient cash management.
Income Statement
62
Positive
LyondellBasell has experienced a decrease in revenue, with a TTM revenue of $38.04 billion compared to $40.30 billion in 2024. The gross profit margin for TTM is 10.24%, showing a decline from previous periods, indicating cost pressures or pricing challenges. The net profit margin stands at 2.41% for TTM, reflecting a decrease from the previous year, highlighting profitability concerns. However, the EBITDA margin of 6.82% for TTM is relatively stable, showing resilience in operational efficiency despite the revenue drop.
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
The debt-to-equity ratio for TTM is 1.03, indicating a balanced capital structure, though slightly leveraged. The return on equity (ROE) for TTM is 7.52%, showing a moderate return on shareholder investment. The equity ratio of 34.71% for TTM suggests a stable proportion of equity financing. Overall, the balance sheet reflects moderate leverage and reasonable equity financing, though the decline in equity compared to previous years is notable.
Cash Flow
74
Positive
The free cash flow for TTM is $1.998 billion, showing stability compared to previous periods. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 3.65 for TTM, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 2.18 for TTM supports the company's ability to generate sufficient cash. Overall, cash flow remains robust, supporting ongoing operations and potential investments.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
38.04B40.30B41.11B50.45B46.17B27.75B
Gross Profit
3.90B4.56B5.26B6.60B8.78B3.39B
EBIT
1.17B1.82B3.05B5.10B6.77B2.49B
EBITDA
3.01B3.61B4.64B6.33B8.70B3.30B
Net Income Common Stockholders
1.07B1.36B2.11B3.88B5.61B1.42B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.87B3.38B3.39B2.15B1.48B2.46B
Total Assets
35.19B35.75B37.00B36.37B36.74B35.40B
Total Debt
12.66B12.92B13.00B13.18B13.60B17.49B
Net Debt
10.80B9.55B9.61B11.02B12.13B15.73B
Total Liabilities
22.85B23.16B23.94B23.74B24.87B27.41B
Stockholders Equity
12.21B12.46B12.93B12.62B11.86B7.97B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
1.51B1.98B3.41B4.23B5.74B1.46B
Operating Cash Flow
3.35B3.82B4.94B6.12B7.70B3.40B
Investing Cash Flow
-1.77B-1.85B-1.78B-1.98B-1.50B-4.91B
Financing Cash Flow
-2.03B-1.90B-1.95B-3.41B-6.38B2.27B

LyondellBasell Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price61.12
Price Trends
50DMA
56.96
Positive
100DMA
64.85
Negative
200DMA
73.20
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.32
Negative
RSI
63.98
Neutral
STOCH
92.21
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LYB, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 61.12 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 56.74, above the 50-day MA of 56.96, and below the 200-day MA of 73.20, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.32 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.21 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for LYB.

LyondellBasell Risk Analysis

LyondellBasell disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. LyondellBasell reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

LyondellBasell Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
LYLYB
69
Neutral
$19.47B18.747.19%9.04%-6.53%-50.08%
EMEMN
68
Neutral
$9.38B10.3516.16%4.08%2.78%1.50%
DDDD
66
Neutral
$29.36B40.240.06%2.34%4.51%-121.68%
66
Neutral
$9.33B12.9012.52%-2.64%173.69%
PPPPG
64
Neutral
$26.11B19.4918.47%2.36%-7.67%-0.58%
WLWLK
56
Neutral
$10.23B26.843.71%2.76%-1.27%48.34%
51
Neutral
$2.04B-1.15-21.24%3.95%2.91%-30.44%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
LYB
LyondellBasell
61.12
-28.13
-31.52%
EMN
Eastman Chemical
80.04
-20.40
-20.31%
PPG
PPG Industries
113.01
-14.41
-11.31%
WLK
Westlake Corporation
80.19
-69.79
-46.53%
DD
DuPont de Nemours
69.40
-9.53
-12.07%
AVTR
Avantor
13.52
-8.62
-38.93%

LyondellBasell Corporate Events

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
LyondellBasell Announces Sale of European Businesses
Negative
Jun 5, 2025

On June 5, 2025, LyondellBasell announced an agreement with AEQUITA for the sale of its olefins and polyolefins businesses in Europe, including sites in the UK, Spain, Germany, and France. This move is part of LyondellBasell’s strategic review and transformation plan to focus on core operations and value creation through circular and renewable solutions. The transaction, expected to close in the first half of 2026, involves a put option agreement and exclusive negotiations, with a potential loss on sale estimated between $700 million to $900 million due to various financial adjustments. The sale is anticipated to enhance LyondellBasell’s industry positioning by allowing it to concentrate on profitable leadership in the European market.

The most recent analyst rating on (LYB) stock is a Buy with a $90.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on LyondellBasell stock, see the LYB Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
LyondellBasell Extends Accounts Receivable Facility
Neutral
May 30, 2025

On May 29, 2025, LyondellBasell‘s subsidiaries amended their $900 million structured accounts receivable facility, originally established in 2012, extending its term to June 26, 2026. This amendment aligns the facility with the company’s senior unsecured revolving credit facility, without materially changing other terms, and as of the amendment date, no trade receivable purchases or letters of credit were outstanding.

The most recent analyst rating on (LYB) stock is a Hold with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on LyondellBasell stock, see the LYB Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder MeetingsStock Buyback
LyondellBasell Shareholders Approve Key Proposals at AGM
Neutral
May 23, 2025

At the annual general meeting on May 23, 2025, LyondellBasell Industries N.V. shareholders approved several key proposals, including the election of 12 directors, the discharge of directors from liability, and the adoption of the company’s annual accounts for 2024. The appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers as the auditor and the ratification of their role as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025 were also confirmed. Additionally, shareholders approved an advisory resolution on executive compensation and authorized the board to repurchase up to 10% of the company’s share capital, with the possibility of canceling repurchased shares. The share repurchase program, effective until November 23, 2026, allows for flexibility in execution based on market and economic conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (LYB) stock is a Buy with a $113.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on LyondellBasell stock, see the LYB Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
LyondellBasell Issues 6.150% Guaranteed Notes for 2035
Positive
May 15, 2025

On May 15, 2025, LyondellBasell Industries N.V. announced the issuance of 6.150% Guaranteed Notes due 2035 through LYB International Finance III, LLC. This financial move is part of their strategic efforts to manage debt and optimize financial operations, indicating a focus on long-term financial stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (LYB) stock is a Hold with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on LyondellBasell stock, see the LYB Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
LyondellBasell Announces $500 Million Notes Offering
Positive
May 7, 2025

On May 6, 2025, LyondellBasell Industries and its subsidiary entered into an Underwriting Agreement with BofA Securities and Wells Fargo Securities for a $500 million public offering of 6.150% Guaranteed Notes due 2035. The issuance of these Notes, fully guaranteed by LyondellBasell, is expected to close on May 15, 2025, potentially strengthening the company’s financial position and market presence.

Executive/Board Changes
LyondellBasell Announces New Chief Accounting Officer
Neutral
Mar 17, 2025

On March 11, 2025, LyondellBasell Industries N.V. announced the resignation of Chukwuemeka A. Oyolu, their Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer, effective March 24, 2025. Matthew D. Hayes has been appointed to fill the role, bringing extensive experience from within the company and previous roles at Halliburton. This leadership change is expected to maintain the company’s robust financial management and reporting standards.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.