LyondellBasell (LYB)
NYSE:LYB
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LyondellBasell
(NYSE:LYB)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$83.00
▲(14.85% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/13/26
The score is held back primarily by weakened profitability and higher leverage in a deep industry downcycle, partially offset by still-solid cash generation and constructive earnings-call execution on liquidity and cost/cash initiatives. Technicals are supportive but appear overextended, while valuation benefits from a high dividend yield but is tempered by loss-driven negative P/E.
Positive Factors
Cash generation & conversion
Sustained strong cash flow and a 95% cash conversion provide durable financial flexibility through cycles. Consistent operating cash covers capex, dividends and buybacks, funds deleveraging and cushions the business during prolonged margin downturns, supporting long-term resilience.
Negative Factors
Severely depressed industry margins
Margins 45% below history reflect structural oversupply, weak demand and low spreads that can persist several quarters. Prolonged depressed margins reduce headroom for cyclical recovery, limiting sustainable profitability and stressing cash conversion if the downcycle endures.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation & conversion
Sustained strong cash flow and a 95% cash conversion provide durable financial flexibility through cycles. Consistent operating cash covers capex, dividends and buybacks, funds deleveraging and cushions the business during prolonged margin downturns, supporting long-term resilience.
Read all positive factors
LyondellBasell (LYB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$23.28B
Dividend Yield12.78%
Average Volume (3M)9.58M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.66
Revenue Growth-19.65%
EPS Growth-157.13%
CountryUS
Employees20,000
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.26
Shares Outstanding322,169,980
10 Day Avg. Volume7,718,305
30 Day Avg. Volume9,581,298
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.12
Price to Book (P/B)1.38
Price to Sales (P/S)0.46
P/FCF Ratio36.31
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.56
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.20
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit13.36
Enterprise Value/Ebitda30.60
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$75.53Price Target Upside4.51% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)5.38
Revenue Forecast (FY)$31.42B
LyondellBasell Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. operates as a chemical company in the United States, Germany, Mexico, Italy, Poland, France, Japan, China, the Netherlands, and internationally. The company operates in six segments: Olefins and Polyolefins Americas;...
How the Company Makes Money
LyondellBasell primarily makes money by producing and selling commodity and specialty chemical products and related services. A major revenue stream comes from manufacturing and selling polyolefins—especially polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (P...
LyondellBasell Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue generated by each business segment, providing insight into which areas are driving growth and how diversified the company's income streams are.
Breaks down revenue generated by each business segment, providing insight into which areas are driving growth and how diversified the company's income streams are.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyLyondellBasell Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 30, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 01, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a resilient operational and financial response to a very challenging industry cycle. Highlights include record safety, strong cash generation ($2.3B), exceptional cash conversion (95%), outperformance on the cash improvement plan ($800M vs $600M target), and an expanded value enhancement program target ($1.1B achieved; $1.5B target by 2028). Management preserved liquidity ($3.4B cash, $8.1B available), maintained capital discipline (2026 CapEx ~$1.2B) and advanced strategic actions (European asset divestitures and MoReTec-1 progress). Offsetting these positives are deeply depressed industry margins (~45% below historical averages), segment-level losses (O&P EAI Q4 loss of $61M), maintenance and feedstock-driven margin pressure, project deferrals and modest near-term EBITDA (Q4 EBITDA $417M). Overall, the operational wins and financial discipline materially mitigate cyclical headwinds, positioning the company to capture upside when markets recover.Positive Updates
Historic Safety Performance
Total recordable incident rate reached a historic low in 2025, making it the safest year in company history despite elevated maintenance and turnaround activity.
Negative Updates
Severely Depressed Industry Margins
Industry margins were approximately 45% below historical averages in 2025 (worse than 2024), pressuring profitability across all core businesses and producing prolonged downturn conditions.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Historic Safety Performance
Total recordable incident rate reached a historic low in 2025, making it the safest year in company history despite elevated maintenance and turnaround activity.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
LyondellBasell guided 2026 with CapEx of about $1.2 billion (≈$400M growth, $800M sustaining), an effective tax rate of ~10% (cash tax ≈10 percentage points higher), and a plan to deliver an additional $500M of cash in 2026 (bringing the cumulative cash‑improvement target to $1.3B through 2026 after over‑delivering in 2025 with $800M conserved vs a $600M goal, including a $400M working‑capital reduction and >$1B working‑capital release in Q4); they reiterated modest sequential market improvement in Q1, expect to operate O&P Americas ~85% (Q4 was ~75% with crackers ~90%), O&P EAI ~75% in Q1, and IND ~85% (Q4 ~75%), and flagged a ~ $20M first‑quarter EBITDA impact from the La Porte restart; strategic targets include VEP recurring EBITDA of $1.1B achieved in 2025 and a $1.5B target by 2028 (mid‑cycle), while 2025 results included $2.3B cash from ops, 95% cash conversion, FY EBITDA $2.5B, EPS $1.70, year‑end cash $3.4B, $8.1B available liquidity, $2B returned to shareholders, total Q4 EBITDA $417M (O&P Americas $164M, EAI –$61M, IND $205M, APS $38M, Technology $80M), and an industry backdrop of margins ~45% below historical averages.LyondellBasell Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 30.15B | 40.30B | 41.11B | 50.45B | 46.17B |
| Gross Profit | 2.71B | 4.56B | 5.26B | 6.60B | 8.78B |
| EBITDA | 1.19B | 3.61B | 4.64B | 6.33B | 8.70B |
| Net Income | -743.00M | 1.36B | 2.11B | 3.88B | 5.61B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 34.00B | 35.75B | 37.00B | 36.37B | 36.74B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.45B | 3.38B | 3.39B | 2.15B | 1.48B |
| Total Debt | 15.96B | 12.92B | 13.00B | 13.18B | 13.60B |
| Total Liabilities | 23.80B | 23.16B | 23.94B | 23.74B | 24.75B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.08B | 12.46B | 12.93B | 12.62B | 11.86B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 384.00M | 1.98B | 3.41B | 4.23B | 5.74B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.26B | 3.82B | 4.94B | 6.12B | 7.70B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.78B | -1.85B | -1.78B | -1.98B | -1.50B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -507.00M | -1.90B | -1.95B | -3.41B | -6.38B |
LyondellBasell Technical Analysis
Neutral
72.27
Price Trends
64.65
Positive
54.89
Positive
52.77
Positive
Market Momentum
3.52
Positive
49.62
Neutral
41.07
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LYB, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 72.27 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 75.97, above the 50-day MA of 64.65, and above the 200-day MA of 52.77, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 3.52 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.07 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for LYB.
LyondellBasell Risk Analysis
LyondellBasell disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. LyondellBasell reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
LyondellBasell Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $8.30B | 15.45 | 8.09% | 5.33% | -3.33% | -19.59% | |
68 Neutral | $24.52B | 14.71 | 33.60% | 2.71% | -12.98% | -11.34% | |
62 Neutral | $21.99B | 33.47 | 10.92% | ― | -10.07% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $14.99B | ― | -15.50% | 2.88% | -5.32% | -1108.29% | |
59 Neutral | $23.28B | -18.77 | -6.63% | 12.78% | -19.65% | -157.13% | |
56 Neutral | $19.44B | -21.54 | -3.77% | 1.74% | 2.42% | -196.54% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
LYB
LyondellBasell
72.27
20.20
38.80%
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WLK
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117.21
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DD
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.