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LyondellBasell (LYB)
NYSE:LYB
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LyondellBasell
(NYSE:LYB)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$51.00
▲(4.08% Upside)
LyondellBasell's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, including declining revenues and profitability, as well as high leverage. Technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, while valuation metrics are mixed with a high dividend yield but negative P/E ratio. The earnings call provided some positive insights into cash management and strategic initiatives, but European market pressures and asset write-downs remain concerns.
Positive Factors
Improved cash generation
Achieving a 135% cash conversion rate and generating $983M of operating cash marks a durable improvement in cash generation versus historical targets. Strong, repeatable cash conversion supports deleveraging, dividend funding and disciplined capex, increasing financial flexibility over multiple quarters.
Strategic asset sale progression
Signing a sales and purchase agreement to divest select European assets is a structural move to reduce exposure to weak regional markets. Proceeds at closing (H1 2026) will materially support debt reduction or portfolio refocus, improving balance sheet resilience and strategic positioning longer term.
Recovery in polyethylene demand
Early signs of polyethylene demand recovery across North America and Europe support sustainable volume upside for LyondellBasell's core polyolefin franchises. Given the company's integrated operations, sustained demand helps utilization, fixed-cost absorption and margin recovery over the medium term.
Negative Factors
High leverage
A TTM debt-to-equity ratio of 1.25 combined with negative ROE indicates structural leverage constraints. Elevated leverage limits strategic flexibility, increases interest and refinancing risk in cyclical downturns, and amplifies earnings volatility, hindering stable capital allocation over coming quarters.
Declining revenue and margins
Persistent negative revenue growth and a sharp decline in gross and net margins versus prior years point to structural pricing, cost or mix pressures. Without sustained margin recovery, cash generation and returns may remain impaired, limiting the company's ability to rebuild earnings power over 2-6 months.
Asset write-downs and utilization cuts
A $1.2B non-cash write-down tied to prolonged weakness in European petrochemicals and automotive end markets is a structural impairment of asset value. Coupled with planned utilization cuts, this erodes the capital base and signals recovery may be slow, constraining long-term capacity to generate returns.
LyondellBasell (LYB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$15.77B
Dividend Yield12.78%
Average Volume (3M)4.91M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.93
Revenue Growth-19.65%
EPS Growth-157.13%
CountryUS
Employees20,000
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.26
Shares Outstanding321,872,960
10 Day Avg. Volume4,999,646
30 Day Avg. Volume4,908,283
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.50
Price to Book (P/B)1.94
Price to Sales (P/S)0.60
P/FCF Ratio12.19
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.72
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.84
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.05
Enterprise Value/Ebitda58.25
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$48.07Price Target Upside-1.90% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
LyondellBasell Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionLyondellBasell Industries N.V. operates as a chemical company in the United States, Germany, Mexico, Italy, Poland, France, Japan, China, the Netherlands, and internationally. The company operates in six segments: Olefins and Polyolefins Americas; Olefins and Polyolefins Europe, Asia, International; Intermediates and Derivatives; Advanced Polymer Solutions; Refining; and Technology. It produces and markets olefins and co-products; polyolefins; polyethylene products, which consist of high density polyethylene, low density polyethylene, and linear low density polyethylene; and polypropylene (PP) products, such as PP homopolymers and copolymers. The company also produces and sells propylene oxide and its derivatives; oxyfuels and related products; and intermediate chemicals, such as styrene monomers, acetyls, ethylene glycols, and ethylene oxides and derivatives. In addition, it produces and markets compounds and solutions, such as polypropylene compounds, engineered plastics, masterbatches, engineered composites, colors, and powders; and advanced polymers. Further, the company refines crude oil and other crude oils of varied types and sources into gasoline and distillates; develops and licenses chemical and polyolefin process technologies; and manufactures and sells polyolefin catalysts. LyondellBasell Industries N.V. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyLyondellBasell generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of its chemical and polymer products. The key revenue streams include the sale of olefins, polyolefins, and intermediates, which are sold to a diverse range of customers across different industries. The company's revenue model is heavily influenced by the prices of raw materials such as crude oil and natural gas, as well as global demand for its products. Additionally, LyondellBasell engages in strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its operational capabilities and market reach, contributing to its overall profitability. The company also benefits from its integrated operations, which allow it to optimize production processes and reduce costs, further strengthening its financial performance.
LyondellBasell Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
EBITDA by Segment
Shows earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for each business segment, highlighting profitability and operational efficiency across different areas of the company.
Shows earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for each business segment, highlighting profitability and operational efficiency across different areas of the company.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyLyondellBasell Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 30, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a resilient operational and financial response to a very challenging industry cycle. Highlights include record safety, strong cash generation ($2.3B), exceptional cash conversion (95%), outperformance on the cash improvement plan ($800M vs $600M target), and an expanded value enhancement program target ($1.1B achieved; $1.5B target by 2028). Management preserved liquidity ($3.4B cash, $8.1B available), maintained capital discipline (2026 CapEx ~$1.2B) and advanced strategic actions (European asset divestitures and MoReTec-1 progress). Offsetting these positives are deeply depressed industry margins (~45% below historical averages), segment-level losses (O&P EAI Q4 loss of $61M), maintenance and feedstock-driven margin pressure, project deferrals and modest near-term EBITDA (Q4 EBITDA $417M). Overall, the operational wins and financial discipline materially mitigate cyclical headwinds, positioning the company to capture upside when markets recover.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Historic Safety Performance
Total recordable incident rate reached a historic low in 2025, making it the safest year in company history despite elevated maintenance and turnaround activity.
Strong Cash Generation and Conversion
Generated $2.3 billion of cash from operations in 2025 with an excellent cash conversion ratio of 95% (versus a long-term target of 80%, i.e., ~15 percentage points higher).
Exceeded Cash Improvement Plan Targets
Original 2025 cash conservation goal of $600 million was exceeded, delivering $800 million (outperformance of ~$200 million, ~33% above target); company now targeting an additional $500 million incremental cash in 2026, raising the cumulative target to $1.3 billion through end of 2026.
Value Enhancement Program Outperformance and Upsized Target
Value enhancement program delivered $1.1 billion of recurring annual EBITDA in 2025 and management increased the target to $1.5 billion of recurring annual EBITDA by 2028 (a $400 million / ~36% increase in targeted recurring EBITDA).
Maintained Financial Flexibility and Liquidity
Ended 2025 with $3.4 billion of cash and short-term investments and $8.1 billion of available liquidity; issued $1.5 billion of bonds to address near-term maturities while preserving investment-grade balance sheet priorities.
Capital Discipline and CapEx Guidance
Announced 2026 capital plan of ~$1.2 billion (approximately $800 million sustaining and $400 million for profitable growth), reflecting disciplined reallocation and deferment of lower-priority growth projects.
Portfolio and Strategic Progress
Advanced divestment of four European assets on track for completion in Q2 2026; construction of MoReTec-1 progressing and on track for 2027 startup; secured new allocation for cost-advantaged Middle East feedstocks.
Return of Capital to Shareholders
Returned $2.0 billion to shareholders during 2025 through dividends and share repurchases while preserving liquidity and investment-grade priorities.
Segment-Level Operational Improvements
APS delivered a 55% year-over-year increase in EBITDA and substantial improvement in cash generation; IND completed La Porte acetyls turnaround and began conversion to a proprietary catalyst system intended to improve margins.
Negative Updates
Severely Depressed Industry Margins
Industry margins were approximately 45% below historical averages in 2025 (worse than 2024), pressuring profitability across all core businesses and producing prolonged downturn conditions.
Modest Full-Year Profitability and Q4 Weakness
Full-year EBITDA totaled $2.5 billion and EPS was $1.70; fourth quarter EBITDA was only $417 million, reflecting seasonal weakness, higher feedstock and energy costs, and maintenance impacts.
O&P Europe, Asia & International Segment Loss
O&P EAI reported a fourth quarter EBITDA loss of $61 million driven by soft demand, increased low-cost imports into Europe, destocking and elevated maintenance.
Feedstock, Energy and Maintenance Pressures
Higher ethane and natural gas prices, planned and unplanned maintenance, and cold-weather startup issues contributed to sequential margin declines (IND start-up cold-weather downtime expected to reduce Q1 EBITDA by ~ $20 million).
LIFO Inventory and Identified Items Impact
Noncash LIFO inventory valuation charges and identified items (including $61 million net of tax primarily from closure costs and APS Specialty Powders) reduced fourth quarter results, with a net quarterly impact of roughly $52 million.
Market Structural Challenges—Polyolefins
North American polyolefins margins reached multi-decade lows; polypropylene faces particularly weak demand due to heavy exposure to durable goods (autos, construction) and global oversupply (China exports), keeping margins depressed.
Deferral of Growth Investments and Project Timing Risk
Certain growth projects (e.g., Flex-2, MoReTec-2) have been deferred or reprioritized; timing of sustainability-related goals and circular investments was revised, reflecting near-term capital conservatism and potential long-term timing risks for growth and circularity targets.
Workforce Reductions and Operational Trade-offs
Global workforce was reduced by ~7% (~1,350 employees) to the lowest levels since 2018 as part of cost and cash actions—a necessary but notable operational impact amid restructuring.
Expectations for Moderate Working Capital Rebuild
Management expects some moderate working capital build in 2026 after releasing > $1 billion in working capital in Q4 2025, which is already factored into the cash improvement plan but will reduce free cash flow headroom temporarily.
Company Guidance
LyondellBasell guided 2026 with CapEx of about $1.2 billion (≈$400M growth, $800M sustaining), an effective tax rate of ~10% (cash tax ≈10 percentage points higher), and a plan to deliver an additional $500M of cash in 2026 (bringing the cumulative cash‑improvement target to $1.3B through 2026 after over‑delivering in 2025 with $800M conserved vs a $600M goal, including a $400M working‑capital reduction and >$1B working‑capital release in Q4); they reiterated modest sequential market improvement in Q1, expect to operate O&P Americas ~85% (Q4 was ~75% with crackers ~90%), O&P EAI ~75% in Q1, and IND ~85% (Q4 ~75%), and flagged a ~ $20M first‑quarter EBITDA impact from the La Porte restart; strategic targets include VEP recurring EBITDA of $1.1B achieved in 2025 and a $1.5B target by 2028 (mid‑cycle), while 2025 results included $2.3B cash from ops, 95% cash conversion, FY EBITDA $2.5B, EPS $1.70, year‑end cash $3.4B, $8.1B available liquidity, $2B returned to shareholders, total Q4 EBITDA $417M (O&P Americas $164M, EAI –$61M, IND $205M, APS $38M, Technology $80M), and an industry backdrop of margins ~45% below historical averages.LyondellBasell Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials are under pressure: revenue is declining (TTM -7.38%) and profitability has deteriorated to negative net margin (-3.69%) with gross margin falling to 9.23% TTM. Leverage is elevated (debt-to-equity 1.25) and ROE is negative (-10.18%). Offsetting this, free cash flow growth is strong (+59.40% TTM), supporting liquidity despite weak earnings quality (operating cash flow to net income 0.39).Income Statement
LyondellBasell's income statement shows a declining revenue trend with a negative revenue growth rate of -7.38% in the TTM period. The company is experiencing negative net and EBIT margins, indicating operational challenges. Historical data shows a consistent decline in gross profit margins, from 19.01% in 2021 to 9.23% in the TTM period. The negative net profit margin of -3.69% in the TTM period highlights profitability issues.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.25 in the TTM period, indicating significant leverage. Return on equity has turned negative at -10.18%, suggesting inefficiencies in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is relatively stable, but the high leverage poses a risk to financial stability.55
Neutral
Cash Flow
The cash flow statement shows a strong free cash flow growth rate of 59.40% in the TTM period, indicating improved cash generation. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.39, suggesting potential issues in converting income into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is relatively healthy at 0.81, indicating decent cash flow relative to net income.60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 32.56B | 40.30B | 41.11B | 50.45B | 46.17B | 27.75B |
| Gross Profit | 3.00B | 4.56B | 5.26B | 6.60B | 8.78B | 3.39B |
| EBITDA | 467.00M | 3.61B | 4.64B | 6.33B | 8.70B | 3.30B |
| Net Income | -1.20B | 1.36B | 2.11B | 3.88B | 5.61B | 1.42B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 33.79B | 35.75B | 37.00B | 36.37B | 36.74B | 35.40B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.59B | 3.38B | 3.39B | 2.15B | 1.48B | 2.46B |
| Total Debt | 13.22B | 12.92B | 13.00B | 13.18B | 13.60B | 17.49B |
| Total Liabilities | 23.06B | 23.16B | 23.94B | 23.74B | 24.75B | 27.30B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.60B | 12.46B | 12.93B | 12.62B | 11.86B | 7.97B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 738.00M | 1.98B | 3.41B | 4.23B | 5.74B | 1.46B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.67B | 3.82B | 4.94B | 6.12B | 7.70B | 3.40B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.92B | -1.85B | -1.78B | -1.98B | -1.50B | -4.91B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.56B | -1.90B | -1.95B | -3.41B | -6.38B | 2.27B |
LyondellBasell Technical Analysis
Neutral
49.00
Price Trends
46.05
Positive
46.36
Positive
50.52
Negative
Market Momentum
1.37
Positive
52.85
Neutral
38.90
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LYB, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 49 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 49.10, above the 50-day MA of 46.05, and below the 200-day MA of 50.52, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.37 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.90 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for LYB.
LyondellBasell Risk Analysis
LyondellBasell disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. LyondellBasell reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
LyondellBasell Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $7.91B | 16.91 | ― | 5.33% | -3.33% | -19.59% | |
68 Neutral | $25.95B | 16.66 | ― | 2.71% | -12.98% | -11.34% | |
63 Neutral | $21.99B | 42.14 | 9.87% | ― | -10.07% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
60 Neutral | $18.40B | -23.84 | -0.46% | 1.74% | 2.42% | -196.54% | |
56 Neutral | $10.17B | -10.69 | -9.48% | 2.88% | -5.32% | -1108.29% | |
52 Neutral | $15.77B | -21.04 | ― | 12.78% | -19.65% | -157.13% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
LYB
LyondellBasell
49.00
-20.46
-29.45%
EMN
Eastman Chemical
69.32
-27.02
-28.04%
PPG
PPG Industries
115.63
6.52
5.98%
SQM
Sociedad Quimica Y Minera SA
76.84
37.98
97.74%
WLK
Westlake Corporation
79.32
-28.35
-26.33%
DD
DuPont de Nemours
43.92
12.77
41.00%
LyondellBasell Corporate Events
Private Placements and Financing
LyondellBasell Enters Underwriting Agreement for Notes Sale
Neutral
Nov 13, 2025
On November 10, 2025, LyondellBasell Industries N.V. and LYB International Finance III, LLC entered into an Underwriting Agreement with Citigroup Global Markets Inc., Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., and J.P. Morgan Securities LLC. This agreement pertains to the underwritten public offering and sale of Notes by the Issuer, marking a significant financial move for the company.
The most recent analyst rating on (LYB) stock is a Hold with a $57.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on LyondellBasell stock, see the LYB Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
LyondellBasell Reports Q3 2025 Net Loss
Negative
Oct 31, 2025
On June 5, 2025, LyondellBasell Industries announced a Put Option Letter Agreement for the sale of its olefins and polyolefins businesses in Europe to AEQ Amethyst B.V., with the transaction expected to close in the first half of 2026. The company reported a net loss of $890 million for the third quarter of 2025, impacted by non-cash asset write-downs and other identified items, while maintaining strong cash flow and progressing with its Cash Improvement Plan and strategic asset sales.
The most recent analyst rating on (LYB) stock is a Hold with a $49.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on LyondellBasell stock, see the LYB Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.