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LyondellBasell (LYB)
NYSE:LYB

LyondellBasell (LYB) AI Stock Analysis

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LYB

LyondellBasell

(NYSE:LYB)

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Neutral 52 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$43.00
▼(-1.74% Downside)
LyondellBasell's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, including declining revenues and profitability, as well as high leverage. Technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, while valuation metrics are mixed with a high dividend yield but negative P/E ratio. The earnings call provided some positive insights into cash management and strategic initiatives, but European market pressures and asset write-downs remain concerns.

LyondellBasell (LYB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

LyondellBasell Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionLyondellBasell Industries N.V. is one of the largest plastics, chemicals, and refining companies in the world, headquartered in Houston, Texas. The company operates through two primary segments: Olefins and Polyolefins, and Intermediates and Derivatives. LyondellBasell produces a wide range of products, including polyethylene, polypropylene, and various chemical intermediates, which are essential for a variety of applications in industries such as packaging, automotive, construction, and consumer goods.
How the Company Makes MoneyLyondellBasell generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of its chemical and polymer products. The key revenue streams include the sale of olefins, polyolefins, and intermediates, which are sold to a diverse range of customers across different industries. The company's revenue model is heavily influenced by the prices of raw materials such as crude oil and natural gas, as well as global demand for its products. Additionally, LyondellBasell engages in strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its operational capabilities and market reach, contributing to its overall profitability. The company also benefits from its integrated operations, which allow it to optimize production processes and reduce costs, further strengthening its financial performance.

LyondellBasell Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 31, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jan 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
LyondellBasell demonstrated strong cash management and safety performance, with encouraging signs in polyethylene demand and strategic progress on asset sales. However, the company faces significant challenges in the European market, a decline in the Technology segment, and asset write-downs due to industry downturns.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Cash Conversion
LyondellBasell achieved a cash conversion rate of 135% in the third quarter, well above the long-term target of 80%.
Solid Safety Performance
The company reported a total recordable incident rate of 0.12, better than last year's top decile result, reflecting improved safety year-on-year.
Encouraging Polyethylene Demand
Polyethylene demand in North America and Europe is showing signs of recovery, with North American demand up by 2.5% and European volumes up approximately 3% year-to-date.
Progress on Cash Improvement Plan
LyondellBasell is on track to deliver a $600 million cash improvement by the end of 2025, with $150 million in fixed cost reductions already achieved.
Strategic Asset Sale Progress
The company signed a sales and purchase agreement for the sale of select European assets, expected to close in the first half of 2026.
Negative Updates
Challenging European Market
Polymer margins in Europe are under pressure due to weak demand and increased competition from imports.
Decline in Technology Segment
The Technology segment reported lower EBITDA of $15 million, impacted by a significant slowdown in licensing activity.
Asset Write-Downs
LyondellBasell recognized $1.2 billion in asset write-downs due to the prolonged downturn in the European petrochemical and global automotive industries.
Challenges with Operating Rates
The company plans to reduce operating rates by 5% in North America and target 60% utilization in Europe due to weak demand and rising costs.
Company Guidance
During LyondellBasell's third-quarter 2025 earnings call, CEO Peter Vanacker highlighted the company's strong performance in cash conversion, achieving a rate of 135% and generating $983 million in cash from operating activities. He noted progress towards a $600 million cash improvement target by year-end and a broader goal of increasing cash flow by $1.1 billion by 2026. The company's safety performance also improved, with a total recordable incident rate of 0.12. Financially, LyondellBasell reported earnings of $1.01 per share and EBITDA of $835 million. The call also discussed an uptick in polyethylene demand, with North American demand up 2.5% and European volumes increasing by 3% relative to 2024. The company returned $443 million to shareholders via dividends and announced a reduction in 2026 capital expenditures to $1.2 billion, emphasizing disciplined capital allocation while maintaining an investment-grade balance sheet.

LyondellBasell Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Breakdown
Income Statement
Total Revenue
Gross Profit
EBITDA
Net Income
Balance Sheet
Total Assets
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
Total Debt
Total Liabilities
Stockholders Equity
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
Investing Cash Flow
Financing Cash Flow

LyondellBasell Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price43.76
Price Trends
50DMA
44.35
Negative
100DMA
47.73
Negative
200DMA
52.87
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.25
Positive
RSI
47.69
Neutral
STOCH
27.07
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LYB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 43.76 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 44.45, below the 50-day MA of 44.35, and below the 200-day MA of 52.87, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.25 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.07 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LYB.

LyondellBasell Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (―)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
71
Outperform
$17.38B36.149.87%-10.07%
67
Neutral
$7.26B10.6112.24%5.21%-3.33%-19.59%
67
Neutral
$23.27B18.5116.31%2.68%-12.98%-11.34%
62
Neutral
$16.95B-22.04-0.46%1.76%2.42%-196.54%
52
Neutral
$13.83B-11.64-10.44%12.45%-19.65%-157.13%
52
Neutral
$9.41B-9.97-9.48%2.88%-5.32%-1108.29%
* Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
LYB
LyondellBasell
43.76
-22.67
-34.13%
EMN
Eastman Chemical
63.93
-22.12
-25.71%
PPG
PPG Industries
103.72
-12.72
-10.92%
SQM
Sociedad Quimica Y Minera SA
65.92
28.28
75.13%
WLK
Westlake Corporation
73.98
-36.36
-32.95%
DD
DuPont de Nemours
40.60
9.14
29.05%

LyondellBasell Corporate Events

Private Placements and Financing
LyondellBasell Enters Underwriting Agreement for Notes Sale
Neutral
Nov 13, 2025

On November 10, 2025, LyondellBasell Industries N.V. and LYB International Finance III, LLC entered into an Underwriting Agreement with Citigroup Global Markets Inc., Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., and J.P. Morgan Securities LLC. This agreement pertains to the underwritten public offering and sale of Notes by the Issuer, marking a significant financial move for the company.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
LyondellBasell Reports Q3 2025 Net Loss
Negative
Oct 31, 2025

On June 5, 2025, LyondellBasell Industries announced a Put Option Letter Agreement for the sale of its olefins and polyolefins businesses in Europe to AEQ Amethyst B.V., with the transaction expected to close in the first half of 2026. The company reported a net loss of $890 million for the third quarter of 2025, impacted by non-cash asset write-downs and other identified items, while maintaining strong cash flow and progressing with its Cash Improvement Plan and strategic asset sales.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
LyondellBasell Amends Credit Agreement with Citibank
Neutral
Sep 11, 2025

On September 10, 2025, LyondellBasell Industries N.V. and LYB Americas Finance Company LLC amended their Third Amended and Restated Credit Agreement with Citibank, N.A. as Administrative Agent, and Wells Fargo Bank as Syndication Agent. This amendment involves various lending institutions, potentially impacting the company’s financial operations and stakeholder relationships.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 09, 2025