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LyondellBasell
(NYSE:LYB)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$54.00
▼(-18.52% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/23/26
The score is held back primarily by sharply weakened recent earnings and meaningful leverage, partially offset by strong free cash flow and a more positive near-term management outlook on cash generation and operational recovery. Technical signals remain soft (below short-term averages and negative MACD), while valuation is mixed with a high dividend yield but an elevated P/E tied to volatile earnings.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistently positive operating and free cash flow, with EBITDA converting to cash above long-term targets, gives durable internal funding for capex, prefunding maturities and working capital. This cash resilience supports deleveraging, portfolio actions and flexibility through commodity cycles.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Meaningful leverage limits financial flexibility if cyclical earnings remain depressed. Higher debt relative to equity increases refinancing and interest-rate risk, constrains capacity for large discretionary investments or faster buybacks, and makes covenants/ratings more sensitive to earnings volatility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistently positive operating and free cash flow, with EBITDA converting to cash above long-term targets, gives durable internal funding for capex, prefunding maturities and working capital. This cash resilience supports deleveraging, portfolio actions and flexibility through commodity cycles.
Read all positive factors
LyondellBasell Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue generated by each business segment, providing insight into which areas are driving growth and how diversified the company's income streams are.
Breaks down revenue generated by each business segment, providing insight into which areas are driving growth and how diversified the company's income streams are.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyLyondellBasell (LYB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$17.22B
Dividend Yield12.78%
Average Volume (3M)4.91M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.49
Revenue Growth-21.87%
EPS Growth-176.90%
CountryUS
Employees20,000
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.50
Shares Outstanding322,784,760
10 Day Avg. Volume5,744,976
30 Day Avg. Volume4,914,195
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.12
Price to Book (P/B)1.38
Price to Sales (P/S)0.46
P/FCF Ratio36.31
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.83
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.06
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda24.03
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$71.33Price Target Upside7.64% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)9.16
Revenue Forecast (FY)$34.46B
LyondellBasell Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
LyondellBasell Industries N.V., established in 2009 and based in Houston, Texas, operates as a prominent global chemical manufacturer with a significant international footprint, including the United States, Germany, Mexico, Italy, Poland, France, ...
How the Company Makes Money
LyondellBasell primarily makes money by producing and selling petrochemical and plastics products, earning revenue when it converts hydrocarbon-based and other feedstocks into higher-value polymers and chemicals and sells them to converters and in...
LyondellBasell Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive operational and financial tone: a meaningful sequential EBITDA recovery (to $615M), strong cash/liquidity and cash‑conversion (111%), significant portfolio progress (sale of four European assets), trade working capital and fixed cost reductions, and clear commercial tailwinds from tighter global supply that favor LYB's U.S./European cost advantaged assets. Offsetting negatives include operational outages (Bayport, La Porte) that trimmed Q1 results, softness in technology licensing, a 50% dividend cut to preserve flexibility, and persistent geopolitical/input‑cost risks that could pressure margins or demand in future quarters. On balance, the highlights around improved earnings, cash conversion, portfolio restructuring and market positioning materially outweigh the lowlights, though uncertainty remains from outages and geopolitical risk.Positive Updates
Strong overall quarterly results
Q1 diluted EPS $0.49 and EBITDA $615 million (EBITDA improved nearly 50% sequentially), cash balance $2.6 billion and total liquidity $7.3 billion. Twelve‑month EBITDA-to-cash conversion was 111% vs the long‑term target of 80%.
Negative Updates
Unplanned downtime and production outages
Bayport PO/TBA outage reduced Q1 EBITDA by ~ $40 million; Bayport expected to restart toward end of Q2 and management estimated the outage cost ~$25 million per week while down. La Porte acetyls restart was delayed following winter storm Fern, further suppressing Q1 results.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong overall quarterly results
Q1 diluted EPS $0.49 and EBITDA $615 million (EBITDA improved nearly 50% sequentially), cash balance $2.6 billion and total liquidity $7.3 billion. Twelve‑month EBITDA-to-cash conversion was 111% vs the long‑term target of 80%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance highlights: management is targeting $500 million of incremental cash flow in 2026 (bringing the cumulative total since 2025 to $1.3 billion), while maintaining capital discipline (Q1 capex $269 million; Q1 operating cash use $269 million), a cash balance of $2.6 billion and available liquidity of $7.3 billion; over the past 12 months EBITDA converted to cash at 111% (versus an 80% target) and trade working capital was $450 million lower year‑over‑year on March 31, though the company expects an intentional working‑capital build in Q2 to capture market opportunities. Financial and tax guidance includes an expected 2026 effective and cash tax rate of 15%–20%, a Board‑approved 50% cut to the quarterly dividend (Q1 shareholder returns $224 million), and continued focus on preserving an investment‑grade balance sheet and prefunded debt maturities. Operationally, company Q1 results were $0.49 EPS and $615 million EBITDA, with O&P‑Americas Q1 EBITDA $327 million, segment operating rate ~85% (crackers ~95%) and a Q2 nameplate utilization target of ~90%; O&P pricing actions include a cumulative $0.50/lb polyethylene increase across April/May and $0.10/lb polypropylene spread increases in both months, April PE orders ~20% above pre‑war averages, NA PE industry sales +6.5% YoY and inventories down 7.6%. I&D posted Q1 EBITDA $224 million, is targeting ~75% utilization in Q2, and expects the Bayport PO/TBA outage (which reduced Q1 EBITDA by ~$40 million) to restart toward end‑Q2 (outage cost ~ $25 million/week while down); the company expects future growth projects (Channelview/Hyperzone/acetyls debottlenecks and MoReTec‑1) to deliver roughly $400 million of incremental EBITDA (MoReTec‑1 ramping toward end of 2027). Additional structural actions: Q1 fixed costs were about $50 million lower versus Q1 2025, headcount has been reduced ~3,000 positions (~15%) since end‑2024, and Technology and APS are expected to see improving near‑term results (Tech Q2 roughly in line with Q4‑2025; APS improving but facing contractual pricing lags).LyondellBasell Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
32
Negative
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 29.67B | 30.15B | 40.30B | 41.11B | 50.45B | 46.17B |
| Gross Profit | 2.87B | 2.71B | 4.56B | 5.26B | 6.60B | 8.78B |
| EBITDA | 1.31B | 1.19B | 3.61B | 4.64B | 6.33B | 8.70B |
| Net Income | -793.00M | -743.00M | 1.36B | 2.11B | 3.88B | 5.61B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 33.96B | 34.00B | 35.75B | 37.00B | 36.37B | 36.74B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.64B | 3.45B | 3.38B | 3.39B | 2.15B | 1.48B |
| Total Debt | 14.25B | 15.96B | 12.92B | 13.00B | 13.18B | 13.60B |
| Total Liabilities | 23.79B | 23.80B | 23.16B | 23.94B | 23.74B | 24.75B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.04B | 10.08B | 12.46B | 12.93B | 12.62B | 11.86B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.79B | 384.00M | 1.98B | 3.41B | 4.23B | 5.74B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.57B | 2.26B | 3.82B | 4.94B | 6.12B | 7.70B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.63B | -1.78B | -1.85B | -1.78B | -1.98B | -1.50B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -196.00M | -507.00M | -1.90B | -1.95B | -3.41B | -6.38B |
LyondellBasell Technical Analysis
Negative
66.27
Price Trends
66.51
Negative
66.86
Negative
56.12
Negative
Market Momentum
-4.00
Positive
22.47
Positive
9.09
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LYB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 66.27 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 59.79, below the 50-day MA of 66.51, and above the 200-day MA of 56.12, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -4.00 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 22.47 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.09 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LYB.
LyondellBasell Risk Analysis
LyondellBasell disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. LyondellBasell reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
LyondellBasell Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $18.89B | -777.28 | -0.16% | 1.74% | -22.51% | 63.46% | |
65 Neutral | $7.87B | 19.73 | 6.77% | 5.33% | -7.41% | -56.10% | |
65 Neutral | $27.94B | 17.80 | 31.80% | 2.71% | -3.94% | 18.25% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
56 Neutral | $19.86B | 25.41 | 14.69% | ― | 18.36% | 35.24% | |
52 Neutral | $17.22B | -21.34 | -7.44% | 12.78% | -21.87% | -176.90% | |
49 Neutral | $9.58B | -5.87 | -17.68% | 2.88% | -8.63% | -524.43% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
LYB
LyondellBasell
53.36
-3.01
-5.35%
EMN
Eastman Chemical
68.86
-5.69
-7.63%
PPG
PPG Industries
125.33
12.87
11.44%
SQM
Sociedad Quimica Y Minera SA
72.70
37.01
103.72%
WLK
Westlake Corporation
74.77
-1.92
-2.50%
DD
DuPont de Nemours
139.91
50.00
55.62%
LyondellBasell Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
LyondellBasell Amends and Extends Receivables Financing Facility
Neutral
May 29, 2026
On May 29, 2026, LyondellBasell subsidiaries executed an Eighth Amendment to their structured accounts receivables facility, originally established in September 2012, with Mizuho Bank, Ltd. and other financial counterparties, effective June 26, 20...
Executive/Board ChangesStock BuybackShareholder Meetings
LyondellBasell Shareholders Approve Directors, Accounts and Buyback
Positive
May 22, 2026
At its recent Annual Meeting, LyondellBasell shareholders, representing about 88% of eligible shares, approved the election of 12 directors to serve until the 2027 annual general meeting and discharged the board from liability, while also adopting...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
LyondellBasell Reports Q1 2026 Earnings and Asset Sale
Positive
May 1, 2026
On May 1, 2026, LyondellBasell reported first-quarter 2026 net income of $125 million, or $0.38 per diluted share, with EBITDA of $568 million, or $615 million excluding identified items, reflecting sequential improvement driven by operational dis...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.