Sps Commerce (SPSC)
NASDAQ:SPSC
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SPS Commerce
(NASDAQ:SPSC)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$60.00
▲(4.13% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:04/30/26
The score is supported primarily by strong financial performance (durable margins, strong cash generation, and a low-debt balance sheet). It is held back by weak technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and a premium valuation (P/E ~36). Earnings-call guidance is constructive on margin expansion and product momentum, but near-term growth is moderated by Amazon-related headwinds and customer churn risk.
Positive Factors
Margin Sustainability
SPS maintains mid-to-high-60s gross margins, enabling durable profitability and operating leverage. High gross margins protect unit economics against competitive pricing, support reinvestment in product and AI, and sustain attractive operating cash flow over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Revenue Deceleration
Revenue growth materially slowed in 2025 versus prior years, reducing the growth runway that underpins margin expansion and multiple expansion. Persistent slower top-line growth constrains long-term scale economics and makes execution on cross-sell and AI monetization more critical.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Margin Sustainability
SPS maintains mid-to-high-60s gross margins, enabling durable profitability and operating leverage. High gross margins protect unit economics against competitive pricing, support reinvestment in product and AI, and sustain attractive operating cash flow over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
SPS Commerce (SPSC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.04B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)651.96K
Price to Earnings (P/E)36.2
Beta (1Y)1.09
Revenue Growth17.83%
EPS Growth19.31%
CountryUS
Employees2,783
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.10
Shares Outstanding36,967,110
10 Day Avg. Volume614,617
30 Day Avg. Volume651,958
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.92
Price to Book (P/B)3.47
Price to Sales (P/S)4.49
P/FCF Ratio22.17
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.94
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.56
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.77
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.73
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$80.80Price Target Upside40.23% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)4.49
Revenue Forecast (FY)$801.83M
SPS Commerce Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
SPS Commerce, Inc. provides cloud-based supply chain management solutions worldwide. It offers solutions through the SPS Commerce, a cloud-based platform that enhances the way retailers, suppliers, grocers, distributors, and logistics firms manage...
How the Company Makes Money
SPS Commerce primarily makes money by charging customers recurring fees for access to and use of its cloud-based commerce network and related services. The company’s main revenue stream is subscription-based revenue from solutions that enable cust...
SPS Commerce Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Annual Recurring Revenue Per User
Measures the average revenue generated from each user annually, indicating the company's success in monetizing its user base and potential for scaling revenue growth.
Measures the average revenue generated from each user annually, indicating the company's success in monetizing its user base and potential for scaling revenue growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlySPS Commerce Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a constructive long-term narrative driven by recurring revenue growth, strong adjusted EBITDA, cash generation and active buybacks, accelerating product velocity and promising early results from the MAX AI beta (400 customers, tangible ROI examples). However, material near-term headwinds tied to Amazon policy changes and an upcoming subscription fee for small 3P customers create customer-count churn risk and moderate near-term growth (Q2 guidance ~4% YoY), offsetting some optimism. Management expects the Amazon-specific pressure to trough by late 2026 with reacceleration thereafter and is emphasizing AI-driven efficiency and cross-sell to sustain mid/long-term high-single-digit growth (excluding Amazon). Overall, positives (product momentum, margin initiatives, buybacks and guidance for full-year growth and EBITDA expansion) modestly outweigh the identifiable near-term Amazon-related risks.Positive Updates
Top-line Growth
Q1 revenue grew 6% year-over-year to $192.1 million; recurring revenue grew 7% YoY, driven by Fulfillment growth of 8%.
Negative Updates
Amazon Revenue Recovery Headwinds
Amazon-related policy changes are creating sustained headwinds in the Amazon 3P revenue recovery business; management expects this segment to trough mid-to-late 2026 with momentum returning in 2027. The Amazon headwind was cited as a primary reason for softer near-term growth and for coming in toward the lower end of recent ranges.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Top-line Growth
Q1 revenue grew 6% year-over-year to $192.1 million; recurring revenue grew 7% YoY, driven by Fulfillment growth of 8%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided Q2 2026 revenue of $194.5–$196.5M (≈4% YoY at the midpoint), adjusted EBITDA of $60.9–$62.4M, GAAP diluted EPS of $0.53–$0.56 (≈37.3M diluted shares), and non‑GAAP diluted income per share of $1.06–$1.09 with Q2-level stock‑based compensation of ≈$19M, depreciation ≈$5.2M and amortization ≈$9.4M; for full‑year 2026 they forecast revenue of $796–$802M (≈6% growth at the midpoint), adjusted EBITDA of $262.8–$267.3M (≈14–16% growth), GAAP diluted EPS of $2.66–$2.69 (≈37.3M shares), and non‑GAAP diluted income per share of $4.73–$4.76 with annual stock‑based compensation ≈$69.8M, depreciation ≈$23M, amortization ≈$37.4M and an approximate 30% effective tax rate on GAAP pre‑tax earnings; management also reiterated continued Amazon 3P headwinds, plans a $19.99/month 3P platform fee rolling out in Q2–Q3 that could reduce the 3P supplier base by up to ~4,000 (but is not expected to be material to revenue).SPS Commerce Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
92
Very Positive
Cash Flow
88
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 751.50M | 637.76M | 536.91M | 450.88M | 385.28M |
| Gross Profit | 482.71M | 427.05M | 354.84M | 297.81M | 253.60M |
| EBITDA | 182.09M | 131.11M | 112.00M | 99.37M | 78.45M |
| Net Income | 93.34M | 77.05M | 65.82M | 55.13M | 44.60M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.17B | 1.03B | 823.84M | 672.91M | 615.85M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 151.35M | 241.02M | 275.44M | 214.31M | 257.31M |
| Total Debt | 10.03M | 12.47M | 14.03M | 17.29M | 20.53M |
| Total Liabilities | 195.97M | 176.54M | 156.37M | 135.84M | 131.59M |
| Stockholders Equity | 973.89M | 854.69M | 667.48M | 537.07M | 484.26M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 152.27M | 137.35M | 112.54M | 80.17M | 93.31M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 178.79M | 157.40M | 132.30M | 100.05M | 112.89M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -169.15M | -110.45M | -92.64M | -112.79M | -46.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -100.83M | -23.03M | 15.97M | -31.63M | -8.36M |
SPS Commerce Technical Analysis
Neutral
57.62
Price Trends
59.60
Negative
73.97
Negative
92.35
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.65
Negative
50.96
Neutral
62.67
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SPSC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 57.62 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 55.57, below the 50-day MA of 59.60, and below the 200-day MA of 92.35, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.65 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SPSC.
SPS Commerce Risk Analysis
SPS Commerce disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. SPS Commerce reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
SPS Commerce Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $2.46B | -78.26 | -3.71% | ― | 11.04% | 2.25% | |
72 Outperform | $4.61B | 41.81 | 8.61% | ― | 29.37% | ― | |
71 Outperform | $2.86B | 11.26 | 28.47% | ― | 6.38% | 9.85% | |
69 Neutral | $2.04B | 36.17 | 9.82% | ― | 17.83% | 19.31% | |
69 Neutral | $3.17B | 58.16 | 18.39% | ― | 18.56% | ― | |
66 Neutral | $2.14B | 82.10 | 7.96% | ― | 26.93% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% |
* Technology Sector Average
SPSC
SPS Commerce
56.12
-85.97
-60.50%
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SPS Commerce Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
SPS Commerce Reports Strong 2025 Results, Updates Leadership
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
On February 12, 2026, SPS Commerce reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, posting Q4 revenue of $192.7 million, up 13% year over year, and full-year revenue of $751.5 million, up 18%, with recurring revenue growing faster than ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock Buyback
SPS Commerce Expands Board and Boosts Share Repurchases
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
On February 12, 2026, SPS Commerce expanded its board to ten members and appointed Michael McConnell and Fumbi Chima as independent directors, with McConnell joining the Finance Strategy Committee and Chima joining the Audit Committee. Long‑...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.