Sps Commerce (SPSC)
NASDAQ:SPSC
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SPS Commerce
(NASDAQ:SPSC)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$61.00
▲(9.79% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/14/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (durable margins, strong cash generation, and a low-debt balance sheet) and a generally constructive earnings outlook with expected EBITDA growth and margin expansion. These positives are tempered by very weak technicals (sharp downtrend and deeply negative momentum) and a relatively high P/E valuation alongside a clearly slower near-term revenue growth profile in guidance.
Positive Factors
Recurring revenue & growth streak
A 100-quarter revenue growth streak and 20% recurring revenue growth demonstrate durable subscription demand and sticky customer relationships. This consistency supports predictable cash flows, reduces revenue volatility, and underpins long-term planning and reinvestment in product and network expansion.
Negative Factors
Revenue deceleration risk
A marked slowdown from mid-teens/teens growth to high-single-digit guidance reduces the company's top-line momentum and limits inherent operating-leverage gains. Persistently slower revenue growth could pressure long-term investment capacity and make margin expansion targets harder to sustain without efficiency gains.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring revenue & growth streak
A 100-quarter revenue growth streak and 20% recurring revenue growth demonstrate durable subscription demand and sticky customer relationships. This consistency supports predictable cash flows, reduces revenue volatility, and underpins long-term planning and reinvestment in product and network expansion.
Read all positive factors
SPS Commerce (SPSC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.08B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)754.77K
Price to Earnings (P/E)36.2
Beta (1Y)1.12
Revenue Growth19.28%
EPS Growth6.16%
CountryUS
Employees2,783
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.14
Shares Outstanding37,390,873
10 Day Avg. Volume654,344
30 Day Avg. Volume754,772
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.92
Price to Book (P/B)3.47
Price to Sales (P/S)4.49
P/FCF Ratio22.17
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.94
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.60
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.83
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.91
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$83.11Price Target Upside49.59% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)4.49
Revenue Forecast (FY)$801.80M
SPS Commerce Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
SPS Commerce, Inc. provides cloud-based supply chain management solutions worldwide. It offers solutions through the SPS Commerce, a cloud-based platform that enhances the way retailers, suppliers, grocers, distributors, and logistics firms manage...
How the Company Makes Money
SPS Commerce primarily makes money by charging customers recurring fees for access to and use of its cloud-based commerce network and related services. The company’s main revenue stream is subscription-based revenue from solutions that enable cust...
SPS Commerce Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Annual Recurring Revenue Per User
Measures the average revenue generated from each user annually, indicating the company's success in monetizing its user base and potential for scaling revenue growth.
Measures the average revenue generated from each user annually, indicating the company's success in monetizing its user base and potential for scaling revenue growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlySPS Commerce Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mix of strong execution and durable fundamentals—notably milestone growth streak, healthy revenue and EBITDA expansion, ARPU improvement, cash generation, acquisitions, and AI product launches— tempered by near-term headwinds: macro/tariff impacts, Amazon policy effects on revenue recovery, 3P customer declines, timing delays on enablement campaigns, and a conservative near-term revenue guide. Management emphasized margin expansion, buybacks, and strategic focus on 1P and AI-driven cross-sell as offsets to the short-term pressures.Positive Updates
100 Consecutive Quarters of Revenue Growth
SPS achieved its 100th consecutive quarter of revenue growth, underscoring long-term consistency in top-line performance and market position.
Negative Updates
Challenging Macro and Tariff-Related Headwinds
Management cited a challenging macroeconomic backdrop and tariff-related uncertainty that drove invoice scrutiny and delayed purchase decisions, continuing to impact customers in Q4 2025.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
100 Consecutive Quarters of Revenue Growth
SPS achieved its 100th consecutive quarter of revenue growth, underscoring long-term consistency in top-line performance and market position.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided Q1 2026 revenue of $191.6M–$193.6M (≈6% y/y at the midpoint), adjusted EBITDA of $55.5M–$57.5M, GAAP diluted EPS $0.46–$0.49 (≈38.2M diluted shares) and non‑GAAP diluted EPS $0.95–$0.99, with Q1 stock‑based compensation ≈$17.2M, depreciation ≈$4.5M and amortization ≈$9.6M; for FY2026 they expect revenue of $798.5M–$806.9M (≈7% growth at the midpoint), adjusted EBITDA of $261.0M–$265.5M (13%–15% growth vs. 2025), GAAP diluted EPS $2.50–$2.58 (≈38.4M shares) and non‑GAAP diluted EPS $4.42–$4.50 with stock‑based comp ≈$67.1M, depreciation ≈$21.6M and amortization ≈$38.3M. They asked investors to model roughly a 30% effective tax rate on GAAP pretax earnings for the remainder of the year, reiterated expectations of at least high‑single‑digit revenue growth (without acquisitions) and annual adjusted‑EBITDA‑margin expansion of ~2 percentage points, and noted continued share‑repurchase capacity under a $300M authorization.SPS Commerce Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
92
Very Positive
Cash Flow
88
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 751.50M | 637.76M | 536.91M | 450.88M | 385.28M |
| Gross Profit | 482.71M | 427.05M | 354.84M | 297.81M | 253.60M |
| EBITDA | 182.09M | 131.11M | 112.00M | 99.37M | 78.45M |
| Net Income | 93.34M | 77.05M | 65.82M | 55.13M | 44.60M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.17B | 1.03B | 823.84M | 672.91M | 615.85M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 151.35M | 241.02M | 275.44M | 214.31M | 257.31M |
| Total Debt | 10.03M | 12.47M | 14.03M | 17.29M | 20.53M |
| Total Liabilities | 195.97M | 176.54M | 156.37M | 135.84M | 131.59M |
| Stockholders Equity | 973.89M | 854.69M | 667.48M | 537.07M | 484.26M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 152.27M | 137.35M | 112.54M | 80.17M | 93.31M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 178.79M | 157.40M | 132.30M | 100.05M | 112.89M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -169.15M | -110.45M | -92.64M | -112.79M | -46.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -100.83M | -23.03M | 15.97M | -31.63M | -8.36M |
SPS Commerce Technical Analysis
Neutral
55.56
Price Trends
65.01
Negative
76.05
Negative
95.59
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.15
Negative
46.16
Neutral
76.97
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SPSC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 55.56 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 58.01, below the 50-day MA of 65.01, and below the 200-day MA of 95.59, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SPSC.
SPS Commerce Risk Analysis
SPS Commerce disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. SPS Commerce reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
SPS Commerce Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $3.35B | 58.16 | 18.39% | ― | 18.37% | ― | |
70 Outperform | $2.08B | 36.17 | 9.82% | ― | 19.28% | 6.16% | |
68 Neutral | $2.61B | 11.26 | 23.78% | ― | 7.25% | -1.12% | |
66 Neutral | $2.11B | 82.10 | 7.96% | ― | 24.71% | 99.52% | |
65 Neutral | $3.51B | 41.81 | 8.61% | ― | 31.27% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
60 Neutral | $2.06B | -78.26 | -10.29% | ― | 11.05% | 45.23% |
* Technology Sector Average
SPSC
SPS Commerce
55.56
-80.28
-59.10%
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SPS Commerce Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
SPS Commerce Reports Strong 2025 Results, Updates Leadership
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
On February 12, 2026, SPS Commerce reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, posting Q4 revenue of $192.7 million, up 13% year over year, and full-year revenue of $751.5 million, up 18%, with recurring revenue growing faster than ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock Buyback
SPS Commerce Expands Board and Boosts Share Repurchases
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
On February 12, 2026, SPS Commerce expanded its board to ten members and appointed Michael McConnell and Fumbi Chima as independent directors, with McConnell joining the Finance Strategy Committee and Chima joining the Audit Committee. Long‑...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.