Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)
NYSE:SPOT
Want to see SPOT full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Spotify
(NYSE:SPOT)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$486.00
▼(-9.43% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:04/30/26
The score is driven primarily by materially improved financial performance (stronger profitability, low leverage, solid free cash flow) and generally positive guidance/momentum discussed on the latest earnings call. This is meaningfully offset by weak technicals (price below all key moving averages with bearish momentum) and a relatively expensive valuation (P/E ~45.9 with no dividend).
Positive Factors
Strong balance sheet & low leverage
Spotify's materially strengthened balance sheet—very low debt versus equity and rapidly compounded equity since 2023—provides durable financial flexibility. This supports multi-year investments in product and AI, opportunistic buybacks, and resilience to cyclical ad weakness without forcing dilutive financing.
Negative Factors
Sluggish ad‑supported revenue growth
Ad revenue is a material second pillar of Spotify's model; prolonged low growth in ad‑supported revenue limits overall topline diversification and constrains margin expansion. If programmatic gains don't offset legacy direct sales weakness, long‑term ARPU and revenue mix targets may be harder to achieve.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong balance sheet & low leverage
Spotify's materially strengthened balance sheet—very low debt versus equity and rapidly compounded equity since 2023—provides durable financial flexibility. This supports multi-year investments in product and AI, opportunistic buybacks, and resilience to cyclical ad weakness without forcing dilutive financing.
Read all positive factors
Spotify Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down sales across regions to reveal where Spotify is strongest, where growth is accelerating, and where it’s exposed to slowing ad markets or weaker subscription uptake. Heavy dependence on a few markets increases risk, while expanding revenue in emerging regions points to future scale.
Breaks down sales across regions to reveal where Spotify is strongest, where growth is accelerating, and where it’s exposed to slowing ad markets or weaker subscription uptake. Heavy dependence on a few markets increases risk, while expanding revenue in emerging regions points to future scale.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlySpotify (SPOT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$89.19B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.13M
Price to Earnings (P/E)29.4
Beta (1Y)0.92
Revenue Growth16.70%
EPS Growth148.31%
CountryUS
Employees7,258
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryInternet Content & Information
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)13.21
Shares Outstanding205,832,520
10 Day Avg. Volume2,221,544
30 Day Avg. Volume2,134,923
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.51
Price to Book (P/B)12.19
Price to Sales (P/S)5.91
P/FCF Ratio35.35
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.81
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.08
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.64
Enterprise Value/Ebitda26.16
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$591.09Price Target Upside10.15% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering24
EPS Forecast (FY)12.74
Revenue Forecast (FY)$19.48B
Spotify Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Spotify Technology S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides audio streaming services worldwide. It operates through Premium and Ad-Supported segments. The Premium segment offers unlimited online and offline streaming access to its catalog of...
How the Company Makes Money
Spotify primarily makes money through two revenue streams: Premium subscriptions and Advertising. (1) Premium subscriptions: Users pay recurring subscription fees (with plan variants such as individual, student, family, or other market-specific ti...
Spotify Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 28, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a largely positive operational and financial picture: MAU and revenue growth accelerated, Premium ARPU and gross margin expanded, operating income and free cash flow were strong, and AI-driven product adoption is gaining traction. That said, there are notable near-term challenges: ad-supported revenue growth is muted (~+3% YoY), ad gross margins experienced short-term weakness as engagement-driven content costs outpaced monetization, and operating expenses are elevated as Spotify invests in AI compute and marketing. Management expects these investments to pay off over time with improved monetization (biddable ads, product top-ups) and has provided constructive Q2 guidance, but near-term variability and execution on ad monetization and AI-related content/legal hurdles remain risks.Positive Updates
Monthly Active Users (MAU) Growth
MAUs reached 761 million (up 10 million q/q), accelerating to +12% year-over-year (from 11% in Q4) and surpassing guidance by ~2 million, driven by free tier enhancements in North America and Rest of World.
Negative Updates
Ad-Supported Revenue Sluggish
Ad-Supported revenue grew only ~3% year-over-year in Q1, lagging overall revenue growth and reflecting ongoing headwinds while legacy direct sales remain choppy despite programmatic gains.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Monthly Active Users (MAU) Growth
MAUs reached 761 million (up 10 million q/q), accelerating to +12% year-over-year (from 11% in Q4) and surpassing guidance by ~2 million, driven by free tier enhancements in North America and Rest of World.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Spotify guided to continued momentum into Q2 and the year: Q1 results included 761M MAUs (+10M, 12% y/y), 293M subscribers (+3M), total revenue €4.5B (+14% y/y), Premium revenue ~+15% y/y with Premium ARPU +5.7% y/y, Ad‑Supported revenue +3% y/y, gross margin 33% (+~133 bps y/y), operating income €715M (15.8% margin) and free cash flow €824M; they ended the quarter with €8.8B cash, repurchased $361M of stock and settled a $1.5B exchangeable note. For Q2 they forecast 778M MAUs (+17M vs Q1), ~299M subscribers (+6M), revenue ≈€4.8B (+15% y/y) with ARPU +7–7.5% y/y, gross margin ~33.1% (~+160 bps y/y) and operating income €630M; management expects full‑year 2026 gross and operating margin improvement, meaningful y/y free cash flow growth and a normalized tax rate in 2027. Additional metrics: IDJ ~94M users, Song DNA 52M users, automated sales >30% of Ad‑Supported revenue and biddable ads >1/3 of ad revenue.Spotify Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
Cash Flow
84
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 17.60B | 17.19B | 15.67B | 13.25B | 11.73B | 9.67B |
| Gross Profit | 5.68B | 5.50B | 4.72B | 3.40B | 2.93B | 2.59B |
| EBITDA | 2.75B | 2.36B | 1.50B | -309.00M | -158.00M | 416.00M |
| Net Income | 2.72B | 2.21B | 1.14B | -532.00M | -430.00M | -34.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 13.14B | 15.01B | 12.00B | 8.38B | 7.57B | 7.19B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 8.76B | 9.46B | 7.45B | 4.23B | 3.32B | 3.51B |
| Total Debt | 476.50M | 2.32B | 2.00B | 1.70B | 1.67B | 1.79B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.12B | 6.68B | 6.48B | 5.85B | 5.19B | 5.07B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.02B | 8.33B | 5.52B | 2.53B | 2.38B | 2.13B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.18B | 2.87B | 2.28B | 674.00M | 21.00M | 276.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.24B | 2.93B | 2.30B | 680.00M | 46.00M | 361.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -726.96M | -1.78B | -1.49B | -217.00M | -423.00M | -187.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.14B | -381.00M | 729.00M | 234.00M | -40.00M | 1.25B |
Spotify Technical Analysis
Negative
536.61
Price Trends
477.79
Negative
494.02
Negative
576.09
Negative
Market Momentum
-14.43
Negative
40.20
Neutral
65.65
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SPOT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 536.61 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 444.82, above the 50-day MA of 477.79, and below the 200-day MA of 576.09, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -14.43 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.65 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SPOT.
Spotify Risk Analysis
Spotify disclosed 57 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Spotify reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Spotify Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $4.44T | 30.94 | 146.69% | 0.41% | 12.76% | 28.91% | |
78 Outperform | $370.93B | 19.21 | 49.24% | ― | 18.57% | 45.93% | |
75 Outperform | $17.72B | 18.11 | 67.11% | 2.47% | 12.55% | -0.50% | |
72 Outperform | $13.19B | 11.86 | 10.97% | 1.02% | 17.25% | -3.49% | |
69 Neutral | $89.19B | 29.44 | 35.34% | ― | 16.70% | 148.31% | |
67 Neutral | $10.54B | -39.66 | 7.76% | ― | 16.30% | -82.47% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
SPOT
Spotify
433.32
-209.68
-32.61%
AAPL
Apple
302.25
100.96
50.16%
NFLX
Netflix
88.09
-31.37
-26.26%
TME
Tencent Music Entertainment Group
9.15
-7.41
-44.74%
PINS
Pinterest
18.81
-13.41
-41.62%
WMG
Warner Music Group
33.92
8.01
30.92%
Spotify Corporate Events
Spotify Posts Sharp Profit Increase on Higher Q1 2026 Revenue
Apr 28, 2026
Spotify Technology S.A., a leading global audio streaming provider of music and podcasts, reported its unaudited interim financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026, showing continued expansion of its core subscription and ad-suppo...
Spotify Posts Record Q1 2026 Profitability as Users Reach 761 Million
Apr 28, 2026
On April 28, 2026, Spotify reported its Q1 2026 results, showing total monthly active users rising to 761 million and premium subscribers to 293 million, representing year-on-year growth of 12% and 9% respectively. Management highlighted that thes...
Spotify Shareholders Back Board, Auditor and New Buyback Authorization at 2026 AGM
Apr 15, 2026
Spotify Technology S.A. held its 2026 annual general meeting on April 15, 2026, where shareholders approved the annual and consolidated financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2025, the allocation of annual results, and the discharge ...
Spotify Names NBCUniversal Executive as New Chief Accounting Officer Amid Planned Retirement
Mar 25, 2026
Spotify Technology S.A. announced on March 25, 2026 that its Chief Accounting Officer, Paul Sawyer, intends to retire effective May 26, 2026 after serving in a key finance leadership role. The company emphasized that Sawyer’s departure does ...
Spotify Sets April 15, 2026 AGM, Seeks Approval for 10 Million‑Share Buyback Mandate
Mar 5, 2026
Spotify Technology S.A. has called its 2026 annual general meeting for April 15, 2026 in Luxembourg, inviting shareholders and holders of beneficiary certificates of record as of February 19, 2026 to attend or vote by proxy. The agenda includes ap...
Spotify Delivers Record Users, Margin Gains and €2.9 Billion Free Cash Flow in 2025
Feb 10, 2026
Spotify reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 10, 2026, with all key performance indicators meeting or exceeding guidance and record user growth. Monthly active users rose 11% year-on-year to 751 million, including ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.