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SpaceX
(NASDAQ:SPCX)
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Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$126.00
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/05/26
The score is held back primarily by weaker underlying fundamentals (sharp 2025 profitability decline and materially negative/free-cash-flow burn) and bearish-to-neutral technical momentum. These are partially offset by a very strong earnings-call outlook highlighting rapid growth, improving loss trajectory, major commercial wins, and significant liquidity to fund expansion, but the investment intensity and execution risks keep the overall score near the low-to-mid range.
Positive Factors
Starlink scale and subscriber growth
Rapid, large-scale subscriber additions plus rising connectivity revenue create durable recurring revenue and network effects. A ~10k-satellite constellation and growing ARPU provide structural capacity to expand enterprise/government sales and improve long-run unit economics as fixed costs spread across more subscribers.
Negative Factors
High capital expenditures and negative free cash flow
Persistent, elevated CapEx (notably ~$15.8B for AI compute in a quarter) drives negative free cash flow even with positive operating cash flow. This heavy investment cadence raises execution and funding sensitivity: long-term returns must exceed very high capital intensity to justify sustained cash burn.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Starlink scale and subscriber growth
Rapid, large-scale subscriber additions plus rising connectivity revenue create durable recurring revenue and network effects. A ~10k-satellite constellation and growing ARPU provide structural capacity to expand enterprise/government sales and improve long-run unit economics as fixed costs spread across more subscribers.
Read all positive factors
SpaceX Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Shows how revenue is split across regions, highlighting concentration in particular markets, exposure to geopolitical or regulatory risks, and where international expansion or demand could fuel future growth.
Shows how revenue is split across regions, highlighting concentration in particular markets, exposure to geopolitical or regulatory risks, and where international expansion or demand could fuel future growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlySpaceX (SPCX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.44T
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)N/A
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)5.36
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees22,000
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)N/A
Shares Outstanding7,571,397,000
10 Day Avg. VolumeN/A
30 Day Avg. VolumeN/A
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)11.40
Price to Sales (P/S)25.22
P/FCF Ratio-33.75
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$229.54Price Target Upside― Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering31
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
SpaceX Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. designs, manufactures, and launches rockets and spacecraft, and provides satellite-based broadband services in the United States, Ireland, and Canada. The company offers launch services for satellites, cargo, a...
How the Company Makes Money
SpaceX generates revenue primarily through (1) launch services, (2) spacecraft mission services, and (3) Starlink satellite internet subscriptions and enterprise connectivity.
1) Launch services (commercial and government)
- Commercial launches: ...
SpaceX Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
33
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||
| Total Revenue | 12.51B | 18.67B | 14.02B |
| Gross Profit | 6.63B | 9.22B | 6.02B |
| EBITDA | 2.49B | 4.29B | 3.31B |
| Net Income | -4.82B | -4.94B | 791.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||
| Total Assets | 192.77B | 92.08B | 57.06B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 100.01B | 24.75B | 12.19B |
| Total Debt | 39.36B | 22.90B | 13.79B |
| Total Liabilities | 65.55B | 50.75B | 31.26B |
| Stockholders Equity | 127.22B | 41.33B | 25.80B |
Cash Flow | |||
| Free Cash Flow | -34.07B | -13.95B | -5.39B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.51B | 6.79B | 5.78B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -51.21B | -19.57B | -10.80B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 107.42B | 26.35B | 11.83B |
SpaceX Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $134.49B | 21.38 | 86.24% | 2.34% | 7.20% | 52.79% | |
70 Outperform | $77.07B | 17.20 | 26.58% | 1.73% | 5.90% | 16.00% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% | |
51 Neutral | $1.44T | -149.57 | -11.59% | ― | ― | ― | |
51 Neutral | $38.85B | -198.68 | -12.26% | ― | 45.83% | 19.99% | |
50 Neutral | $3.34B | -8.55 | -57.61% | ― | 70.66% | -21.52% | |
49 Neutral | $170.83B | 80.95 | 104.83% | ― | 24.78% | ― |
* General Sector Average
SPCX
SpaceX
114.92
-46.03
-28.60%
BA
Boeing
232.19
4.86
2.14%
LMT
Lockheed Martin
582.85
163.41
38.96%
NOC
Northrop Grumman
567.74
-10.57
-1.83%
RKLB
Rocket Lab USA
75.67
31.46
71.16%
FLY
Firefly Aerospace, Inc.
24.06
-26.11
-52.04%
SpaceX Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
SpaceX Raises $25 Billion Through Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Jun 26, 2026
On June 22, 2026, Space Exploration Technologies Corp. began an offering of senior unsecured notes and, on June 26, 2026, issued a total of $25 billion across multiple tranches maturing between 2031 and 2056 with coupons ranging from 5.350% to 6.6...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
SpaceX Launches First Major Multitranch Bond Issuance
Positive
Jun 23, 2026
On June 23, 2026, SpaceX announced the pricing of its inaugural $25 billion bond issuance, comprising multiple tranches of unsecured senior notes maturing between 2031 and 2056, following the commencement of the offering on June 22, 2026. The note...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
SpaceX Launches First Senior Unsecured Notes Offering
Positive
Jun 22, 2026
On June 22, 2026, SpaceX disclosed to prospective note investors that, as of June 19, 2026, it held approximately $100.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents, while cautioning that its balance as of June 30, 2026 could differ materially. This upda...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
SpaceX Adds Roelof Botha to Board, Audit Committee
Positive
Jun 17, 2026
On June 16, 2026, SpaceX’s board elected venture capitalist Roelof Botha as an independent common stock director to fill an existing vacancy and appointed him to the audit committee, adding significant public company, audit, and financial ov...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
SpaceX to Acquire Cursor in All-Stock Merger Deal
Positive
Jun 16, 2026
On June 16, 2026, SpaceX entered into a merger agreement under which its wholly owned subsidiary X67 Inc. will merge with Anysphere, Inc. (Cursor), leaving Cursor as a wholly owned subsidiary of SpaceX once the deal closes, subject to regulatory a...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
SpaceX Completes IPO and Overhauls Post-IPO Governance
Positive
Jun 15, 2026
On June 15, 2026, in connection with the closing of its initial public offering, SpaceX converted approximately 103 million shares of preferred stock into Class A and Class B common stock and completed a global IPO of 638,888,888 Class A shares at...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.