Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC)
NYSE:NOC
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Northrop Grumman
(NYSE:NOC)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$597.00
▼(-10.26% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:04/21/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial performance and a constructive earnings-call outlook with reaffirmed guidance, large backlog, and major program momentum (B-21 and Sentinel). These positives are tempered by elevated leverage and near-term technical weakness (negative momentum and trading below key short-term averages), while valuation appears reasonable with a modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Large, visible backlog and award flow
A $96B backlog with $9.8B in recent awards provides durable revenue visibility and demand from government customers. Multi-year contract coverage smooths top-line volatility, enables production planning, and underpins predictable revenue and sustainment work over the next several years.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage limits flexibility
A debt-to-equity ratio near 1.18 constrains financial flexibility amid multi-year program funding needs. Elevated leverage increases interest and refinancing exposure, limits capacity for opportunistic M&A or accelerated buybacks, and amplifies downside risk if cash generation lags expectations.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Large, visible backlog and award flow
A $96B backlog with $9.8B in recent awards provides durable revenue visibility and demand from government customers. Multi-year contract coverage smooths top-line volatility, enables production planning, and underpins predictable revenue and sustainment work over the next several years.
Read all positive factors
Northrop Grumman Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down sales across various divisions, showcasing which areas are growing and contributing most to the company's top line, indicating strategic strengths or weaknesses.
Breaks down sales across various divisions, showcasing which areas are growing and contributing most to the company's top line, indicating strategic strengths or weaknesses.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNorthrop Grumman (NOC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$78.12B
Dividend Yield1.55%
Average Volume (3M)806.98K
Price to Earnings (P/E)27.7
Beta (1Y)0.14
Revenue Growth4.95%
EPS Growth26.05%
CountryUS
Employees97,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)32.01
Shares Outstanding142,033,480
10 Day Avg. Volume766,093
30 Day Avg. Volume806,983
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio7.41
Price to Book (P/B)4.91
Price to Sales (P/S)1.95
P/FCF Ratio24.74
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.20
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.20
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.75
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.46
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$716.23Price Target Upside7.66% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)27.94
Revenue Forecast (FY)$44.00B
Northrop Grumman Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Northrop Grumman Corporation operates as an aerospace and defense company worldwide. The company's Aeronautics Systems segment designs, develops, manufactures, integrates, and sustains aircraft systems. This segment also offers unmanned autonomous...
How the Company Makes Money
Northrop Grumman primarily makes money by designing, developing, producing, integrating, and sustaining aerospace and defense systems under contracts that are predominantly funded by the U.S. government, especially the U.S. Department of Defense, ...
Northrop Grumman Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 21, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a broadly positive outlook: solid quarterly growth (sales +4%, organic +5%), strong bookings ($9.8B) and a large backlog ($96B), improving margins, significant program accelerations (B-21 production +25%, Sentinel milestones), and active investments to expand capacity. Near-term negatives include a weak Space quarter driven by one-time timing and program adjustments (NGI and GEM 63XL), Q1 cash use and sizable multi-year CapEx for B-21, and execution/timing risks tied to supplier scaling and program testing. On balance, the positive operational and backlog momentum, reaffirmed guidance, and material strategic wins and investments outweigh the manageable near-term challenges.Positive Updates
Revenue and Organic Sales Growth
First quarter sales of $9.9 billion, up 4% year over year; organic sales up 5% — described as a strong start to the year and consistent with full-year expectations.
Negative Updates
Space Segment Near-Term Weakness
Space sales and operating income declined vs. prior year due to a $98 million NGI recognition in the prior-year quarter and a $71 million unfavorable earnings adjustment on the GEM 63XL program, creating a year-over-year headwind.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Organic Sales Growth
First quarter sales of $9.9 billion, up 4% year over year; organic sales up 5% — described as a strong start to the year and consistent with full-year expectations.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reaffirmed 2026 guidance with full-year sales of $43.5–$44.0 billion and segment operating income targeted at a low-to-mid 11% margin, expecting sales to accelerate through the year (Q2 high single‑digit sequential sales growth) and cash flow to ramp with the largest generation in Q4; full‑year capex was raised to $1.85 billion (including an incremental $200 million for B‑21) while free cash flow guidance was maintained at $3.1–$3.5 billion. Management noted a Q1 operating backdrop of $9.9 billion sales (up 4% YoY, organic +5%), $9.8 billion of awards, $96 billion backlog, segment operating income above $1 billion (10.8% margins), diluted EPS of $6.14, approx. $1.8 billion use of cash in Q1 and over $2 billion cash on hand, and emphasized program-level expectations such as Sentinel representing ~6–7% of revenue (low double‑digit growth in 2026 toward ~10% over time), B‑21 nearing ~10% of revenue with a 25% production rate increase and ~ $2.5 billion company‑funded investment phased over multiple years, and weapons/missile‑defense businesses each at about 10% of company sales and positioned to grow faster than the company average.Northrop Grumman Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 42.37B | 41.95B | 41.03B | 39.29B | 36.60B | 35.67B |
| Gross Profit | 8.69B | 8.31B | 8.36B | 6.55B | 7.47B | 7.27B |
| EBITDA | 7.50B | 7.21B | 6.84B | 4.23B | 7.68B | 8.73B |
| Net Income | 4.58B | 4.18B | 4.17B | 2.06B | 4.90B | 7.00B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 50.01B | 51.38B | 49.36B | 46.54B | 43.76B | 42.58B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.09B | 4.40B | 4.35B | 3.11B | 2.58B | 3.53B |
| Total Debt | 17.07B | 19.74B | 20.19B | 17.94B | 16.82B | 16.25B |
| Total Liabilities | 32.89B | 34.70B | 34.07B | 31.75B | 28.44B | 29.65B |
| Stockholders Equity | 17.11B | 16.67B | 15.29B | 14.79B | 15.31B | 12.93B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.31B | 3.31B | 2.62B | 2.10B | 1.47B | 2.15B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.67B | 4.76B | 4.39B | 3.88B | 2.90B | 3.57B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.07B | -1.16B | -1.75B | -1.58B | -1.24B | 2.06B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.19B | -3.55B | -1.40B | -1.76B | -2.61B | -7.00B |
Northrop Grumman Technical Analysis
Negative
665.26
Price Trends
641.45
Negative
657.26
Negative
617.65
Negative
Market Momentum
-26.69
Negative
33.65
Neutral
43.97
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NOC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 665.26 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 563.32, above the 50-day MA of 641.45, and above the 200-day MA of 617.65, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -26.69 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 33.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NOC.
Northrop Grumman Risk Analysis
Northrop Grumman disclosed 21 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Northrop Grumman reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Northrop Grumman Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $92.79B | 21.10 | 17.41% | 1.73% | 9.35% | 10.49% | |
69 Neutral | $57.97B | 32.48 | 8.87% | 1.61% | 5.79% | 9.31% | |
68 Neutral | $236.95B | 31.57 | 11.23% | 1.44% | 10.56% | 56.63% | |
67 Neutral | $78.12B | 27.70 | 28.05% | 1.55% | 4.95% | 26.05% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
59 Neutral | $121.81B | 23.12 | 74.53% | 2.77% | 4.59% | -10.76% | |
53 Neutral | $173.91B | -10,177.67 | -8719.23% | ― | 32.74% | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
NOC
Northrop Grumman
556.34
89.94
19.28%
BA
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215.01
11.80
5.81%
GD
General Dynamics
340.14
67.45
24.74%
LHX
L3Harris Technologies
308.15
79.48
34.76%
LMT
Lockheed Martin
526.63
68.86
15.04%
RTX
RTX
174.49
41.78
31.48%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.