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Boeing Company (BA)
NYSE:BA
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Boeing
(NYSE:BA)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$216.00
▲(2.91% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:01/28/26
The score is held back primarily by weak underlying financial quality (high leverage and volatile/negative free cash flow) and a demanding valuation (high P/E). Offsetting factors include strong technical momentum and an earnings-call-supported operational recovery plan with improving deliveries and backlog, though execution and certification/program risks remain significant.
Positive Factors
Record Commercial Backlog
A $567B backlog gives multi-year visibility into commercial deliveries and aftermarket revenue, supporting production planning and long-term cash flow. This durable demand pipeline reduces revenue cyclicality and underpins future service and parts monetization as aircraft enter service.
High‑Margin Services & Defense Backlogs
Large, high-quality defense and services backlogs with strong BGS margins provide stable, recurring revenue less tied to airline cycles. Defense contracts and aftermarket services typically sustain margins and cash conversion, diversifying earnings and cushioning commercial airplane volatility.
Manufacturing Productivity Gains
Material factory and process improvements that cut rework and simplify work instructions are structural cost and quality enhancers. Sustained productivity gains reduce unit costs, improve on‑time delivery, and materially lower rework-driven cash burn over multiple years if maintained.
Negative Factors
Very High Leverage
Debt of ~$54B vs equity of ~$5.5B produces very high leverage, constraining financial flexibility. Elevated leverage increases sensitivity to cash flow swings, raises interest and refinancing risk, and limits the company's ability to absorb program setbacks or fund large certification and ramp costs.
Inconsistent Free Cash Flow
Multi‑year FCF volatility and recent inconsistent cash generation mean structural uncertainty in debt paydown and funding for capex and acquisitions. Reliance on one‑off divestitures and working capital improvements to patch FCF reduces predictability of sustained deleveraging.
Certification & Program Execution Risk
Ongoing certification delays and program issues (including engine durability checks) cause prolonged pre‑delivery spending, inventory build and negative segment margins. These execution risks can extend cash drag and increase the chance that anticipated margin recovery timelines slip materially.
Boeing (BA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$164.84B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)6.32M
Price to Earnings (P/E)74.1
Beta (1Y)1.37
Revenue Growth10.19%
EPS Growth-6.03%
CountryUS
Employees172,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)9.92
Shares Outstanding785,347,100
10 Day Avg. Volume7,903,713
30 Day Avg. Volume6,320,597
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.65
Price to Book (P/B)30.35
Price to Sales (P/S)1.85
P/FCF Ratio-88.18
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.28
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.36
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit48.81
Enterprise Value/Ebitda28.65
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$276.36Price Target Upside31.67% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)1.38
Revenue Forecast (FY)$97.21B
Boeing Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionThe Boeing Company, together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, sales, services, and supports commercial jetliners, military aircraft, satellites, missile defense, human space flight and launch systems, and services worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Commercial Airplanes; Defense, Space & Security; Global Services; and Boeing Capital. The Commercial Airplanes segment provides commercial jet aircraft for passenger and cargo requirements, as well as fleet support services. The Defense, Space & Security segment engages in the research, development, production, and modification of manned and unmanned military aircraft and weapons systems; strategic defense and intelligence systems, which include strategic missile and defense systems, command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, cyber and information solutions, and intelligence systems; and satellite systems, such as government and commercial satellites, and space exploration. The Global Services segment offers products and services, including supply chain and logistics management, engineering, maintenance and modifications, upgrades and conversions, spare parts, pilot and maintenance training systems and services, technical and maintenance documents, and data analytics and digital services to commercial and defense customers. The Boeing Capital segment offers financing services and manages financing exposure for a portfolio of equipment under operating leases, sales-type/finance leases, notes and other receivables, assets held for sale or re-lease, and investments. The company was incorporated in 1916 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.
How the Company Makes MoneyBoeing generates revenue primarily from (1) selling aircraft and aerospace/defense products and (2) providing lifecycle services tied to those platforms. Commercial Airplanes revenue comes largely from delivering commercial jetliners to airline and leasing customers under long-term production programs, with cash flows driven by contracted deliveries, customer advance and progress payments, and contractual terms that may include financing, customer incentives, and support arrangements. Defense, Space & Security revenue is largely earned through U.S. and international government and defense customers via contracts to develop and deliver military aircraft, rotorcraft, satellites, space/launch systems, and other defense capabilities; these programs are typically awarded under contract structures such as fixed-price or cost-type arrangements, with revenue recognized as contractual performance obligations are satisfied and with timing influenced by milestones, production schedules, and program performance. Global Services revenue comes from aftermarket and support activities across commercial and defense fleets, including maintenance, modifications and upgrades, spare parts distribution, repairs and overhauls, training, engineering and technical services, digital/analytics offerings, and supply-chain/logistics services; these services monetize the installed base over the life of the aircraft and systems through recurring service contracts, parts sales, and hourly or usage-based support arrangements. Significant factors affecting earnings include production rates and delivery volumes, program execution and cost performance (especially on fixed-price development and production contracts), demand and utilization levels in commercial aviation that drive aftermarket services, and the ability to win and execute government/defense and space programs, often in partnership with major suppliers and industry teammates.
Boeing Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Commercial Airplane Deliveries
Tracks the number of aircraft delivered to customers, indicating production efficiency and demand in the commercial aviation market.
Tracks the number of aircraft delivered to customers, indicating production efficiency and demand in the commercial aviation market.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyBoeing Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 27, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented substantial evidence of operational recovery and commercial momentum — record backlogs, materially higher revenue (Q4 +57%, FY +34%), delivery improvements, program certification progress, and stronger services and defense order intake. However, notable near-term financial and program headwinds remain: a material KC-46 charge, continued certification timing risks (particularly 777X cash burn profile), negative segment margins despite improvement, excess advances/customer considerations, and near-term CapEx and integration impacts from the Spirit acquisition. Management outlined a clear plan to stabilize production, reduce rework, and target positive free cash flow of $1–3 billion in 2026 and a longer-term normalized goal around $10 billion, but execution risk remains centered on certification, supply-chain ramps, and program-level cost performance.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Quarterly Revenue Surge
Total company revenue of $23.9 billion in Q4, the highest quarterly total since 2018, up 57% year-over-year driven by higher commercial deliveries and defense volume.
Full-Year Revenue and Improved EPS
Full-year revenue of $89.5 billion, up 34% year-over-year. Core EPS of $1.19 for the year (boosted by an $12.47 per-share gain from the Digital Aviation Solutions sale); Q4 core EPS was $9.92 reflecting an $11.83 gain from the divestiture.
Delivery and Order Momentum — Commercial
BCA delivered 160 airplanes in the quarter and 600 for the year (most commercial airplanes delivered since 2018). BCA booked 336 net orders in Q4 and 1,173 net orders for the year; backlog ended at a record $567 billion (over 6,100 airplanes).
Production Stabilization and Factory Improvements
737 production stabilized at 42 airplanes/month (on-time delivery performance improved threefold vs prior year); simplified over 5,100 work instructions; 787 program stabilized at rate 8 with average rework hours reduced nearly 30% year-over-year and factory rework levels down ~20% in Q4 vs H1.
Program Certification Progress and Milestones
737-10 received TIA2 to expand flight testing (final phase of certification testing); 777-9 received TIA3 and continues certification flight testing. Defense milestones included MQ-25 inaugural engine run and delivery of the first operational T-7A Red Hawk.
Defense and Services Order Strength
BDS booked $15 billion in orders in the quarter and reached a record backlog of $85 billion; BGS recorded $10 billion in orders in the quarter and a record $28 billion for the year, with adjusted BGS revenue growth of 6% and adjusted operating margin of 18.6%.
Strategic Portfolio Actions
Completed acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems to strengthen supply chain and manufacturing alignment; completed $10 billion Jefferson sale to solidify the balance sheet while retaining key digital aviation capabilities.
Improving Cash Position and Q4 Free Cash Flow
Cash and marketable securities grew to $29.4 billion (partly from divestiture proceeds). Q4 free cash flow was positive $375 million (slightly above expectations); full-year free cash flow usage improved versus prior year.
Negative Updates
KC-46 Tanker Charge
BDS recorded a $565 million loss on the KC-46 tanker in the quarter driven by revised cost estimates for production support, supply chain and Everett facility allocations — a discrete, material charge that weighed on operating results.
777X Engine Durability Issue & Delivery Timing
A potential durability issue was identified on the 777X engine during inspection; Boeing is working with GE to determine root cause and corrective action. While Boeing stated it does not expect this to impact a 2027 delivery, the issue remains a program risk.
Ongoing Certification Delays and Cash Drag
Delays to certification timelines for 737 MAX derivatives and 777-9 continue to drive elevated pre-delivery spending and cash burn. 777X first delivery is planned for 2027 with net cash burn and PDP timing meaningfully higher in 2026; net cash on 777X expected to turn positive by 2029.
Negative Segment Margins and Full-Year Cash Use
BCA operating margin remained negative at -5.6% in the quarter (although improved materially), BDS operating margin -6.8% in Q4. Full-year free cash flow was a usage of $1.9 billion for 2025.
Spirit Acquisition Near-Term Cash and Debt Impact
Incorporation of Spirit AeroSystems is expected to have an unfavorable impact of roughly $1 billion on 2026 free cash flow; retained Spirit debt contributed to total company debt ending at $54.1 billion.
Legacy Customer Considerations and Excess Advances
Prior delivery delays on 737 and 787 created customer considerations and excess advances that will depress near-term cash flow; management expects these impacts to burn down over multiple years as production stabilizes.
One-time and Timing Headwinds
DOJ payment timing slid from 2025 to 2026 (creating a cash impact in 2026), and planned CapEx is expected to spike to around $4 billion in 2026 (up from nearly $3 billion in 2025) to support production and growth initiatives.
Supply Chain and Rate Ramp Risks
Supply chain will be the critical challenge as Boeing moves from 47 to 52 737/month — achieving that step (and Spirit’s capacity ramp) will require sustained supplier performance and targeted investments; seat/seat configuration certifications remain delivery constraints for some 787 customers.
Company Guidance
Boeing guided to positive 2026 free cash flow of $1–3 billion (or “high single digits” on an adjusted basis excluding temporary impacts), with Q1 cash use similar to 2025, a first‑half use turning positive and accelerating in the second half; CapEx is expected to be ~ $4 billion in 2026 (vs. nearly $3 billion in 2025), cash and marketable securities were $29.4 billion, debt $54.1 billion, and the company retains $10 billion of undrawn revolvers. Operational and program guidance includes the 737 stabilizing at 42/mo (plan to rise to 47 this year and add a North Line above 47) with ~500 737 deliveries targeted in 2026 (447 in 2025), 787 deliveries of ~90–100 (88 in 2025) as rate‑8 stabilizes with a move to rate‑10 targeted later in the year, BCA delivered 160 aircraft in Q4 and 600 in 2025, BCA booked 336 net orders in Q4 and 1,173 for the year with backlog of $567 billion (6,100+ airplanes), 777X first delivery planned in 2027 (≈$3.5 billion 2025 inventory spend; net cash burn to turn positive by 2029), BDS revenue of $7.4 billion in Q4 (operating margin –6.8%) including a $565 million KC‑46 charge and backlog of $85 billion, and BGS adjusted revenue of $5.1 billion with an 18.6% adjusted margin and $30 billion backlog — all underpinned by productivity improvements (5,100+ simplified work instructions, ~30% reduction in 787 rework hours, ~20% Q4 factory rework reduction) to drive margin and cash recovery.Boeing Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials show a rebound in 2025 (revenue up to $89.5B and return to profitability), but the recovery remains fragile: the balance sheet is highly levered (debt ~$54.1B vs. equity ~$5.5B) and cash generation is still inconsistent (2025 FCF improved versus 2024 but remained a full-year usage of $1.9B, with volatility across years).Income Statement
Results show a clear rebound in 2025: revenue rose to $89.5B (up 10.8% YoY) and profitability turned positive with a 2.1% net margin after a deep loss in 2024 (-17.8%). That said, profitability remains thin (gross margin ~4.8% in 2025) and the last several years show significant earnings volatility with multiple loss years, indicating the recovery is still fragile.52
Neutral
Balance Sheet
Leverage remains a key constraint: total debt is ~$54.1B against a small equity base of ~$5.5B in 2025, implying very high leverage (debt-to-equity ~9.9x). While equity has improved from negative levels in prior years, the balance sheet still looks stretched for a cyclical manufacturer, leaving less room for operational setbacks or slower-than-expected margin recovery.28
Negative
Cash Flow
Cash generation is inconsistent. 2025 produced positive operating cash flow and free cash flow of ~$1.1B, a major improvement versus 2024’s large cash burn (operating cash flow -$12.1B; free cash flow -$14.4B). However, 2025 free cash flow declined sharply versus the prior year’s level shown in the dataset (free cash flow growth -122.2%), and the broader history includes multiple years of negative cash flow, highlighting ongoing execution and working-capital risk.34
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 89.46B | 66.52B | 77.79B | 66.61B | 62.29B |
| Gross Profit | 4.29B | -1.96B | 7.71B | 3.46B | 6.48B |
| EBITDA | 7.36B | -7.65B | 2.31B | -510.00M | -207.00M |
| Net Income | 2.23B | -11.82B | -2.22B | -4.93B | -4.20B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 168.24B | 156.36B | 137.01B | 137.10B | 138.55B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 20.05B | 26.28B | 15.96B | 17.22B | 16.24B |
| Total Debt | 54.10B | 54.19B | 52.60B | 57.28B | 58.37B |
| Total Liabilities | 162.78B | 160.28B | 154.24B | 152.95B | 153.40B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.45B | -3.91B | -17.23B | -15.88B | -15.00B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.88B | -14.40B | 4.43B | 2.29B | -4.40B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.06B | -12.08B | 5.96B | 3.51B | -3.42B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 499.00M | -11.97B | -2.44B | 4.37B | 9.32B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.76B | 25.21B | -5.49B | -1.27B | -5.60B |
Boeing Technical Analysis
Negative
209.89
Price Trends
234.28
Negative
218.48
Negative
219.20
Negative
Market Momentum
-6.08
Positive
35.35
Neutral
8.32
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 209.89 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 227.43, below the 50-day MA of 234.28, and below the 200-day MA of 219.20, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -6.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.32 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BA.
Boeing Risk Analysis
Boeing disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Boeing reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Boeing Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $104.13B | 19.57 | 26.50% | 1.55% | -0.14% | 72.35% | |
75 Outperform | $274.52B | 36.54 | 10.62% | 1.44% | 8.79% | 39.63% | |
74 Outperform | $95.05B | 21.58 | 17.57% | 1.73% | 11.86% | 17.39% | |
74 Outperform | $148.63B | 22.26 | 80.53% | 2.77% | 2.88% | -35.15% | |
70 Outperform | $314.32B | 37.76 | 45.88% | 0.48% | -19.21% | 31.83% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
56 Neutral | $164.84B | 74.05 | -94.94% | ― | 10.19% | -6.03% |
* Industrials Sector Average
BA
Boeing
209.89
48.04
29.68%
GD
General Dynamics
351.52
91.36
35.12%
GE
GE Aerospace
299.69
98.72
49.12%
LMT
Lockheed Martin
646.00
190.83
41.92%
NOC
Northrop Grumman
733.71
250.97
51.99%
RTX
RTX
204.52
74.66
57.50%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.