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Raytheon Technologies (RTX) AI Stock Analysis

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RTX

Raytheon Technologies

(NYSE:RTX)

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Outperform 75 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$226.00
▲(15.01% Upside)
Overall score reflects improving financial performance (higher revenue, better margins, stronger free cash flow, and reduced leverage) and strong technical uptrend. These positives are moderated by a demanding valuation (high P/E with a modest yield) and guidance that, while positive, includes meaningful near-term headwinds such as tariffs, elevated CapEx, and GTF-related cash outflows.
Positive Factors
Free cash flow generation
Sustained, material free cash flow delivery demonstrates strong earnings-to-cash conversion, enabling debt paydown, reinvestment and shareholder returns. Over the next 2–6 months this cash profile supports execution of guidance and reduces reliance on external financing for growth investments.
Large, multi-year backlog
A $268B backlog with book-to-bill >1 provides durable revenue visibility across commercial and defense programs, underpinning mid-term organic growth and margin improvement. Backlog breadth reduces near-term cyclicality and supports capacity investments and aftermarket revenue streams.
Diversified commercial and defense franchise
Broad business mix across engines, avionics, missiles and services spreads demand risk across commercial OEM, aftermarket and defense contracting. Recurring MRO and long-term government contracts provide steadier cash and strategic leverage for R&D and industrial investment over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Large absolute debt and near-term maturities
Although leverage has improved, the absolute debt stock remains large and requires continued strong free cash flow to sustain reductions. Near-term maturities and required repayments mean cash allocation choices (debt paydown vs. capex/dividends) will materially affect financial flexibility over the coming months.
GTF-related customer compensation cash outflows
Program-specific compensation and remediation obligations create recurring cash pressure tied to the GTF fleet. These scheduled outflows materially reduce available FCF for debt reduction or reinvestment and introduce program execution risk that can persist over multiple quarters.
Tariffs and supply-chain constraints
Sustained tariff costs and long-lead supplier bottlenecks compress margins and require additional capital and industrial investments to restore throughput. These structural headwinds can weigh on margin sustainability and require ongoing operational remediation over the medium term.

Raytheon Technologies (RTX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Raytheon Technologies Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionRTX Corporation, an aerospace and defense company, provides systems and services for the commercial, military, and government customers in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Collins Aerospace, Pratt & Whitney, and Raytheon. The Collins Aerospace Systems segment offers aerospace and defense products, and aftermarket service solutions for civil and military aircraft manufacturers and commercial airlines, as well as regional, business, and general aviation, defense, and commercial space operations. This segment also designs, produces, and supports cabin interior, including oxygen systems, food and beverage preparation, storage and galley systems, and lavatory and wastewater management systems; battlespace, test and training range systems, crew escape systems, and simulation and training solutions; information management services; and aftermarket services that include spare parts, overhaul and repair, engineering and technical support, training and fleet management solutions, and asset and information management services. Its Pratt & Whitney segment supplies aircraft engines for commercial, military, business jet, and general aviation customers; and produces, sells, and services military and commercial auxiliary power units. The Raytheon segment provides defensive and offensive threat detection, tracking, and mitigation capabilities for U.S., foreign government, and commercial customers. The company was formerly known as Raytheon Technologies Corporation and changed its name to RTX Corporation in July 2023. RTX Corporation was incorporated in 1934 and is headquartered in Arlington, Virginia.
How the Company Makes MoneyRTX generates revenue through a diversified portfolio of products and services across its various sectors. Key revenue streams include the sale of commercial and military aircraft engines through Pratt & Whitney, which provides maintenance services and spare parts as ongoing revenue. Collins Aerospace contributes significantly through avionics, landing systems, and connectivity solutions for commercial aircraft. Additionally, the defense segment, including Raytheon Intelligence & Space and Raytheon Missiles & Defense, earns revenue from government contracts for advanced defense systems and technologies. RTX also benefits from long-term contracts and partnerships with government entities and commercial airlines, ensuring a steady stream of income. The company invests in research and development to innovate and enhance its offerings, further solidifying its market position and revenue potential.

Raytheon Technologies Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Segment
Revenue by Segment
Shows how much each business unit contributes to total sales, indicating areas of strength and potential growth or diversification opportunities.
Chart InsightsRTX's revenue growth is driven by Collins Aerospace and Pratt & Whitney, with notable recovery post-2020. Collins Aerospace shows consistent growth, while Pratt & Whitney rebounds strongly after a dip in 2023. The earnings call highlights robust demand, with a 9% organic sales increase and a record backlog, despite challenges like tariffs and a work stoppage at Pratt. Raytheon's defense wins and increased sales outlook underscore strategic momentum, though tariff impacts have slightly dampened EPS expectations. Investors should note the 8% dividend increase, reflecting confidence in long-term growth.
Data provided by:The Fly

Raytheon Technologies Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jan 27, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive outlook: the company delivered strong FY2025 results (double-digit organic revenue growth, EPS growth, and materially higher free cash flow), a record backlog with robust book-to-bill, broad-based segment momentum (Pratt, Raytheon, Collins), clear evidence of productivity improvements, and constructive 2026 guidance (higher sales, EPS, and free cash flow). Notable near-term headwinds were repeatedly disclosed — tariff impacts, GTF-related customer compensation cash outflows, some GAAP adjustments/pension items, supply-chain constraints and near-term debt maturities — but management provided mitigation plans (capacity investments, digital productivity, supply-chain engagement) and guidance that incorporates these items. Overall, the positives (growth, backlog, cash, operational gains, and concrete 2026 guidance) substantially outweigh the disclosed lowlights.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Full-Year Revenue and Organic Growth
Adjusted sales of $88.6 billion for FY2025, up $9.0 billion year-over-year and +11% organic growth.
Strong Earnings and Cash Generation
Adjusted EPS of $6.29 for FY2025, up 10% year-over-year; free cash flow of $7.9 billion, up $3.4 billion year-over-year.
Robust Backlog and Book-to-Bill
Full-year book-to-bill of 1.56 and record backlog of $268 billion, up 23% year-over-year (≈$161B commercial, $107B defense).
2026 Financial Outlook
Guidance for 2026: adjusted sales $92.0–$93.0 billion (5–6% organic growth), adjusted EPS $6.60–$6.80, and free cash flow $8.25–$8.75 billion.
Quarterly Performance and Channel Strength
Q4 adjusted sales $24.2 billion (+12% adjusted, +14% organic). Organic growth drivers: commercial OE +18%, commercial aftermarket +17%, defense +10%.
Segment Wins and Order Flow
Notable awards include 1,500 GTF engines and >2,400 Pratt Canada engines orders, Raytheon $1.2B Spain Patriot award and $1.2B Tamir missile contract; Raytheon booked $40B of awards in the year; international backlog mix at Raytheon 47% (up 3 points).
Exceptional Pratt & Whitney Momentum
Pratt & Whitney FY sales $32.9B (+17% organic), Q4 sales $9.5B (+25% Y/Y); Q4 operating profit $776M (+$59M) driven by strong OEM, aftermarket and military engine volumes.
Raytheon Operational and Margin Improvement
Raytheon Q4 sales $7.7B (+7%), Q4 operating profit $885M (+$157M). FY Raytheon sales $28B (+6% organic) with 130 bps year-over-year margin expansion driven by productivity and mix.
Operational Productivity and Digital Deployment
Factory digital connectivity covering >50% of manufacturing hours; examples include 45% aged inventory reduction at Pratt Lansing and 35% circuit card cycle-time reduction at Raytheon Andover; munitions output up ~20% on critical programs.
GTF Fleet Management Progress
GTF MRO output up 26% for the year and +39% in Q4; AOGs down >20% from 2025 highs; heavier shop visits up 40% in 2025; new MRO partners added (UAE Sinad, ITP Aero).
Capital Investment Program
Invested $2.6B CapEx in 2025 and over $10B in CapEx + company/customer-funded R&D in aggregate in 2025; planning ~$10.5B of combined R&D/CapEx investment in 2026 including ~$3.1B CapEx to expand capacity.
Negative Updates
Tariff and Other One-Time Impacts
Q4 and FY results included approximately $600 million of tariff-related impacts; Collins experienced ~90 bps margin drag from tariffs in 2025; Collins expects an extra quarter of tariff expense in early 2026.
GTF-Related Customer Compensation Cash Outflows
Included approximately $1.0 billion of powder-metal-related customer compensation in the quarter; expected cash outflows of ~$700 million in 2026 and cumulative FMP cash of ~$2.8B through end-2026 (targeting ~ $3B total).
Q4 EPS Dilutive Items and Elevated Corporate Costs
Q4 adjusted EPS grew only 1% to $1.55 due in part to higher corporate expenses and a higher effective tax rate; GAAP EPS from continuing operations $1.19 included $0.31 acquisition accounting adjustments and $0.05 restructuring/other items; Q4 pension settlement charge $0.15 per share.
Pension and Other Below-the-Line Headwinds for 2026
2026 outlook includes a ~$0.13 EPS headwind from lower pension income, ~$0.05 headwind from higher share count, ~$0.06 headwind from higher minority interest, and a ~$0.03 headwind from divestitures.
Debt Maturities and Near-Term Repayments
Approximately $3.4 billion of debt payments due in 2026 (company paid down $1.1B in Q4 2025); debt reduction is a priority but requires ongoing cash allocation.
Supply-Chain and Capacity Constraints Remain
Management noted long-lead items and supplier bottlenecks (e.g., solid rocket motors, castings) requiring further investment and industrial-base strengthening to meet planned defense ramps.
Divestitures and Related Short-Term Profit Headwinds
Completed divestiture of Collins Simmons business generated an approximate $0.03 EPS headwind and reduced Collins comparable operating profit; divestitures also reduced reported margins in transition periods.
Legacy Engine Retirements and Mixed OE Dynamics
Some legacy engines (PW4000, PW2000) face retirements leading to a ~ $100M headwind in aftermarket for 2026; Pratt OE mix considerations could moderate OE growth despite robust delivery increases overall.
Company Guidance
RTX guided 2026 adjusted sales of $92–93 billion (5%–6% organic growth) with adjusted EPS of $6.60–$6.80 and free cash flow of $8.25–$8.75 billion; the company expects consolidated segment margin expansion supported by mid-single‑digit growth in commercial OE and defense and high‑single‑digit growth in commercial aftermarket, and plans total company and customer‑funded R&D/investment of about $10.5 billion (including roughly $3.1 billion of CapEx, ~$500 million above 2025). Management said segment operating profit growth will drive ~ $0.59 of EPS at the midpoint (offset by a ~$0.03 divestiture headwind, ~$0.13 lower pension income, ~$0.05 higher share count and ~$0.06 minority interest headwinds, and a ~$0.06 interest tailwind), and detailed free cash flow drivers of +$1.1 billion from operations, a ~$300 million YoY tailwind from ~$700 million of powder‑metal customer compensation, a ~$500 million CapEx headwind, and ~ $300 million of other headwinds. At the segment level, Collins is expected to see mid‑single‑digit adjusted sales (high‑single‑digit organic) with operating profit up $425–525 million; Pratt mid‑single‑digit sales with operating profit up $225–325 million; and Raytheon mid‑to‑high‑single‑digit sales with operating profit up $200–300 million.

Raytheon Technologies Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Fundamentals are solid and improving: TTM revenue rose to $88.6B with stronger margins (EBIT ~11.8%, net ~7.6%) and net income up to ~$6.7B. Cash generation strengthened meaningfully (TTM FCF ~$7.9B, ~75% of net income) and debt has been reduced to ~$36.1B with improved debt-to-equity (~0.55). Offsets are the still-large absolute debt load and historical variability/cyclicality in profitability and cash flows.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Profitability and growth have improved meaningfully versus earlier years. Revenue rose to $88.6B in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), up from $80.7B in 2024 and $68.9B in 2023, and margins strengthened (TTM gross margin ~20.1%, EBIT margin ~11.8%, net margin ~7.6%). Net income also stepped up to $6.7B TTM from $4.8B in 2024. Key watch-out: results have been somewhat cyclical over the period (notably the 2020 loss), so while the current trajectory is strong, durability through the cycle remains a consideration.
Balance Sheet
71
Positive
Leverage looks manageable and has improved recently. Total debt declined to ~$36.1B TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) from ~$42.9B in 2024 and ~$45.2B in 2023, while equity increased to ~$65.2B, bringing debt-to-equity down to ~0.55 (from ~0.71 in 2024). Returns on equity improved to ~10.6% TTM versus ~7.9% in 2024. Primary weakness: the company still carries a sizable absolute debt load for the sector, so sustained earnings/cash generation is important to keep the balance sheet trending stronger.
Cash Flow
74
Positive
Cash generation strengthened substantially in the latest period. Operating cash flow increased to ~$10.6B TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) from ~$7.2B in 2024, and free cash flow rose to ~$7.9B (about 75% of net income), indicating solid earnings-to-cash translation. Free cash flow growth was very strong in TTM after being flat-to-down in 2024. Main risk: cash flow has shown variability across years, so consistency will be important to support debt reduction and shareholder returns.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue88.60B80.74B68.92B67.07B64.36B
Gross Profit17.79B15.41B12.09B13.67B12.50B
EBITDA13.78B12.16B9.37B11.17B10.56B
Net Income6.73B4.77B3.19B5.20B3.86B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets171.08B162.86B161.87B158.86B161.40B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments7.43B5.58B6.59B6.22B7.83B
Total Debt41.11B42.89B45.24B33.50B33.14B
Total Liabilities103.94B100.90B100.42B84.65B86.70B
Stockholders Equity65.25B60.16B59.80B72.63B73.07B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow7.94B4.53B4.72B4.39B4.75B
Operating Cash Flow10.57B7.16B7.88B7.17B7.07B
Investing Cash Flow-1.26B-1.53B-3.04B-2.83B-1.36B
Financing Cash Flow-7.49B-6.62B-4.53B-5.86B-6.68B

Raytheon Technologies Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price196.51
Price Trends
50DMA
188.62
Positive
100DMA
179.07
Positive
200DMA
162.33
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
2.41
Positive
RSI
59.74
Neutral
STOCH
33.83
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RTX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 196.51 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 198.43, above the 50-day MA of 188.62, and above the 200-day MA of 162.33, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.41 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RTX.

Raytheon Technologies Risk Analysis

Raytheon Technologies disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Raytheon Technologies reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Raytheon Technologies Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
$96.34B23.3426.17%1.55%-0.14%72.35%
75
Outperform
$263.77B39.5910.74%1.44%8.79%39.63%
74
Outperform
$93.65B22.4117.66%1.73%11.86%17.39%
74
Outperform
$144.65B29.2676.87%2.77%2.88%-35.15%
70
Outperform
$329.04B38.5845.24%0.48%-19.21%31.83%
63
Neutral
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
56
Neutral
$185.55B124.62289.00%10.19%-6.03%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
RTX
Raytheon Technologies
196.51
76.34
63.53%
BA
Boeing
236.26
51.84
28.11%
GD
General Dynamics
346.34
108.98
45.91%
GE
GE Aerospace
313.73
106.64
51.49%
LMT
Lockheed Martin
628.70
217.63
52.94%
NOC
Northrop Grumman
678.83
247.42
57.35%

Raytheon Technologies Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
RTX Initiates $2.5 Billion Pension Buy-Out
Neutral
Nov 13, 2025

On November 7, 2025, RTX Corporation initiated a buy-out conversion of a group annuity contract from The Prudential Insurance Company of America, transferring approximately $2.5 billion of pension obligations. This transaction, affecting around 60,000 retirees and beneficiaries, will not change their benefits and maintains the Plan’s funded status, while RTX anticipates a one-time, non-cash pretax pension settlement charge of about $300 million in Q4 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (RTX) stock is a Buy with a $215.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on RTX stock, see the RTX Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 28, 2026