Firefly Aerospace, Inc. (FLY)
NASDAQ:FLY
Top Page
Firefly Aerospace, Inc.
(NASDAQ:FLY)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$37.00
▲(6.17% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/01/26
The score reflects a mix of improving fundamentals and strong forward-looking momentum: revenue growth, positive gross profit, and a healthier equity position are supportive, and technical indicators show bullish price momentum. The main constraints are ongoing large losses and heavy cash burn (with rising debt), while valuation is less supportive due to negative earnings despite upbeat 2026 guidance and backlog visibility.
Positive Factors
Large backlog and booked 2026 revenue
A ~$1.4B backlog provides multi-quarter revenue visibility and underpins capacity planning and prioritization of launches and lunar missions. With roughly 80% of 2026 midpoint guidance already booked, backlog reduces short-term demand risk and supports predictable revenue recognition over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Persistent negative cash flow
Sustained negative operating and free cash flow implies ongoing external funding needs and recurring dilution or debt usage to fund operations. Even as revenue scales, continued cash burn increases refinancing and execution risk and demands disciplined capex and working-capital management to reach self-sustaining cash generation.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Large backlog and booked 2026 revenue
A ~$1.4B backlog provides multi-quarter revenue visibility and underpins capacity planning and prioritization of launches and lunar missions. With roughly 80% of 2026 midpoint guidance already booked, backlog reduces short-term demand risk and supports predictable revenue recognition over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Firefly Aerospace, Inc. (FLY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.57B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.02M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.86
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees780
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.38
Shares Outstanding159,952,400
10 Day Avg. Volume8,342,036
30 Day Avg. Volume5,021,537
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.03
Price to Book (P/B)1.30
Price to Sales (P/S)9.68
P/FCF Ratio-6.51
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.91
Enterprise Value/Revenue31.84
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit204.70
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-22.92
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$33.33Price Target Upside-4.36% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.39
Revenue Forecast (FY)$435.75M
Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Firefly Aerospace Inc. operates as a space and defense technology company and provides mission solutions for national security, government, and commercial customers. It offers integrated launch and space services technology that is committed to en...
How the Company Makes Money
Firefly makes money primarily by selling space transportation and mission services under contract. Key revenue streams include: (1) Launch services: customers pay for payload delivery to orbit on Firefly’s Alpha rocket, typically through mission c...
Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive strategic and operational outlook: Firefly reported transformative revenue growth (+163% YoY), a large and growing backlog (~$1.4B), successful operational milestones (Alpha Flight 7, commercial moon landing), and the strategic SciTec acquisition with operational FORGE capability and meaningful contract expansions. These positives were tempered by sizable operating losses, negative free cash flow, increased operating expenses tied to the acquisition and public-company status, and multi-year timelines for some vehicle programs (notably Eclipse). Management highlighted strong liquidity (~$893M), aggressive 2026 revenue guidance (~$420–450M, midpoint up ~172% YoY) with ~80% booked, and clear plans for scaling launches and spacecraft production, suggesting that the company is in a heavy-investment growth phase where near-term losses are expected while execution risk remains on multi-year programs.Positive Updates
Record Annual Revenue and Strong Growth
Reported record 2025 annual revenue of $159.9M (~$160M), a 163% year-over-year increase, driven by expanded spacecraft solutions (including SciTec) and an active launch cadence.
Negative Updates
Substantial Operating Losses and Negative Profitability
GAAP operating loss in Q4 was $85.6M (vs. $62.2M in Q3); non-GAAP operating loss was $64.5M (vs. $52.8M in Q3). Non-GAAP net loss in Q4 was $58.5M and adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $57.3M.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Annual Revenue and Strong Growth
Reported record 2025 annual revenue of $159.9M (~$160M), a 163% year-over-year increase, driven by expanded spacecraft solutions (including SciTec) and an active launch cadence.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Firefly guided full‑year 2026 revenue of $420–$450 million (midpoint $435M, ~172% growth vs. 2025 record revenue of $159.9M), saying roughly 80% of the midpoint is already booked and calling out operational drivers including four Alpha launches in 2026 (Block 2 debut on Flight 8 with Flights 9–10 in production), execution of three Blue Ghost missions, continued Eclipse and Elytra development, and government software work; at year‑end Q4 the company reported backlog ≈$1.4B (up from $1.3B Q3 and +22% YoY from $1.1B), Q4 revenue $57.7M, Q4 gross margin 27.7%, Q4 non‑GAAP operating loss $64.5M and non‑GAAP net loss $58.5M (GAAP net loss $41.1M), adjusted EBITDA loss $57.3M, Q4 free cash flow -$79.3M, Q4 capex $12.1M with 2026 capex expected to increase, cash and short‑term investments $893M (including $260M drawn on revolver), and an ending share count of 159.3M (Q4 GAAP EPS -$0.26; non‑GAAP EPS -$0.38).Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
42
Neutral
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||
| Total Revenue | 159.85M | 60.79M | 55.23M |
| Gross Profit | 24.87M | -11.37M | 26.60M |
| EBITDA | -222.03M | -198.22M | -126.79M |
| Net Income | -298.34M | -231.13M | -135.46M |
Balance Sheet | |||
| Total Assets | 1.82B | 407.33M | 321.21M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 892.97M | 123.43M | 81.94M |
| Total Debt | 308.59M | 168.40M | 120.95M |
| Total Liabilities | 635.00M | 1.17B | 825.69M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.19B | -767.62M | -504.49M |
Cash Flow | |||
| Free Cash Flow | -237.75M | -190.35M | -170.68M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -204.92M | -157.65M | -93.43M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -401.56M | -32.70M | -69.99M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.26B | 232.76M | 240.73M |
Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Risk Analysis
Firefly Aerospace, Inc. disclosed 55 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Firefly Aerospace, Inc. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | $5.57B | -5.19 | -312.37% | ― | ― | ― | |
52 Neutral | $244.13M | -2.64 | -108.48% | ― | -30.18% | 80.43% | |
50 Neutral | $38.53B | -186.77 | -19.23% | ― | 52.42% | -1.33% | |
44 Neutral | $249.92M | -0.82 | -107.75% | ― | -82.36% | 56.88% | |
44 Neutral | $20.11M | -0.10 | ― | ― | -63.81% | 81.84% | |
43 Neutral | $236.38M | -2.42 | -174.08% | ― | ― | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
FLY
Firefly Aerospace, Inc.
34.85
-15.32
-30.54%
SPCE
Virgin Galactic Holdings
3.07
0.55
21.83%
MNTS
Momentus
3.51
-28.08
-88.89%
EVTL
Vertical Aerospace
2.31
-0.71
-23.51%
RKLB
Rocket Lab USA
67.67
50.15
286.24%
SIDU
Sidus Space, Inc. Class A
3.67
2.38
184.50%
Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesPrivate Placements and FinancingShareholder Meetings
Firefly Aerospace Expands Revolving Credit Facility and Liquidity
Neutral
Apr 3, 2026
On April 3, 2026, Firefly Aerospace, Inc. amended its existing credit agreement, expanding its senior secured revolving credit facility by $45 million to a total of $305 million while raising the interest spread by 0.25%, with borrowings now price...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Firefly Aerospace Adopts Standardized Executive Severance Plan
Neutral
Mar 4, 2026
On February 25, 2026, Firefly Aerospace, Inc.’s board compensation committee approved a new Executive Severance Plan to standardize severance and benefits for designated officers and management. The plan coordinates with existing contracts a...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.