Firefly Aerospace, Inc. (FLY)
NASDAQ:FLY
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Firefly Aerospace, Inc.
(NASDAQ:FLY)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$52.00
▲(18.94% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven by improving but still weak fundamentals (large losses and cash burn despite strong revenue momentum and better equity) and a supportive technical uptrend. Earnings-call guidance and operational traction help, while valuation remains constrained by negative earnings and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Large backlog and reiterated revenue guidance
A roughly $1.3B backlog plus reiterated $420–$450M 2026 guidance provides multi-quarter revenue visibility, supporting production planning and resource allocation. This de-risks near-term demand realization and underpins predictable top-line cadence as launches and missions scale.
Negative Factors
Persistent negative cash flow and cash burn
Sustained negative operating and free cash flow requires continual external funding, increasing dilution and financing costs over time. Heavy cash burn constrains reinvestment, forces capital allocation trade-offs, and raises execution risk if liquidity or credit terms tighten over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Large backlog and reiterated revenue guidance
A roughly $1.3B backlog plus reiterated $420–$450M 2026 guidance provides multi-quarter revenue visibility, supporting production planning and resource allocation. This de-risks near-term demand realization and underpins predictable top-line cadence as launches and missions scale.
Read all positive factors
Firefly Aerospace, Inc. (FLY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.93B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)6.40M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)3.37
Revenue Growth70.66%
EPS Growth-21.52%
CountryUS
Employees780
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.38
Shares Outstanding160,235,210
10 Day Avg. Volume7,243,838
30 Day Avg. Volume6,397,572
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.59
Price to Book (P/B)2.86
Price to Sales (P/S)21.26
P/FCF Ratio-14.29
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.97
Enterprise Value/Revenue41.42
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit216.24
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-29.73
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$41.00Price Target Upside-6.22% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.92
Revenue Forecast (FY)$436.16M
Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Firefly Aerospace Inc. operates as a space and defense technology company and provides mission solutions for national security, government, and commercial customers. It offers integrated launch and space services technology that is committed to en...
How the Company Makes Money
Firefly Aerospace makes money primarily by selling space transportation and mission services. Its core revenue stream is launch services: customers (commercial satellite operators and government agencies) pay for dedicated or rideshare launches to...
Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 04, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a strongly positive operational narrative: record revenue growth, high-profile milestone achievements (first commercial Moon landing), major national security awards (SciTech/Golden Dome, FORGE expansion), productive partnerships (NVIDIA, LLNL), and continued progress across Alpha and Eclipse programs. These positives are tempered by material near-term financial challenges — notably lower GAAP gross margin, wider GAAP and non-GAAP losses, increasing operating expenses, and continued cash outflows (including a Q2 acquisition payment). Liquidity remains healthy which supports ongoing execution. On balance, strategic momentum and demand signals substantially outweigh the financial headwinds this quarter.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue and Strong Growth
Delivered record Q1 revenue of $80.9 million, up ~40.2% sequentially from $57.7M and up ~44.7% year-over-year from $55.9M. Spacecraft solutions contributed $67.6M and launch contributed $13.3M.
Negative Updates
Decline in GAAP Gross Margin
GAAP gross margin fell to 21.6% from 27.7% in the prior quarter (a decline of 6.1 percentage points), attributed to a higher mix of cost-plus program contracts driving revenue mix.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue and Strong Growth
Delivered record Q1 revenue of $80.9 million, up ~40.2% sequentially from $57.7M and up ~44.7% year-over-year from $55.9M. Spacecraft solutions contributed $67.6M and launch contributed $13.3M.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Firefly reiterated 2026 revenue guidance of $420–$450 million while reporting record Q1 revenue of $80.9M (spacecraft $67.6M; launch $13.3M) and a backlog of ≈$1.3B; total liquidity was $811.6M (cash/short‑term investments $551.6M plus $260M revolver capacity, later upsized to $305M undrawn). Q1 financials included GAAP gross margin 21.6% (prior quarter 27.7%), GAAP operating expenses $113.1M (non‑GAAP $93.7M), GAAP operating loss $95.7M (non‑GAAP $76.2M), GAAP net loss $96.7M (non‑GAAP net loss $74.0M), GAAP/diluted net loss per share $0.61 (non‑GAAP $0.46), adjusted EBITDA loss $64.7M, free cash flow outflow $78.9M, CapEx $16.3M, and stock‑based compensation $12.5M; share count was 160.1M (expected to increase ~1M shares/quarter) and a final SciTech acquisition payment of ~ $24M is expected in Q2. Operationally, management is targeting three more Alpha launches in 2026 with the Block‑2 vehicle debut (Flight 8) targeted for late summer.Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
42
Neutral
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||
| Total Revenue | 184.88M | 159.85M | 60.79M | 55.23M |
| Gross Profit | 35.42M | 24.87M | -11.37M | 26.60M |
| EBITDA | -257.58M | -222.03M | -198.22M | -126.79M |
| Net Income | -334.92M | -298.34M | -231.13M | -135.46M |
Balance Sheet | ||||
| Total Assets | 1.49B | 1.82B | 407.33M | 321.21M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 551.63M | 892.97M | 123.43M | 81.94M |
| Total Debt | 52.99M | 308.59M | 168.40M | 120.95M |
| Total Liabilities | 387.11M | 635.00M | 1.17B | 825.69M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.10B | 1.19B | -767.62M | -504.49M |
Cash Flow | ||||
| Free Cash Flow | -257.45M | -237.75M | -190.35M | -170.68M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -210.93M | -204.92M | -157.65M | -93.43M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -540.24M | -401.56M | -32.70M | -69.99M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 885.08M | 1.26B | 232.76M | 240.73M |
Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Risk Analysis
Firefly Aerospace, Inc. disclosed 95 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Firefly Aerospace, Inc. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
60 Neutral | $7.93B | ― | -57.61% | ― | 70.66% | -21.52% | |
58 Neutral | $78.59B | ― | -12.26% | ― | 45.83% | 19.99% | |
53 Neutral | $414.03M | -7.41 | -82.97% | ― | -9.23% | 64.77% | |
48 Neutral | $326.21M | ― | -105.02% | ― | -76.23% | 63.55% | |
44 Neutral | $73.74M | -0.43 | -401.62% | ― | 108.16% | 85.58% | |
44 Neutral | $333.60M | 0.69 | 251.21% | ― | ― | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
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Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Firefly Aerospace Updates Executive Employment and Severance Arrangements
Positive
Apr 21, 2026
On April 16, 2026, Firefly Aerospace, Inc. entered into new confirmatory employment letters with executives Jason Kim, Darren Ma, and Ramon Sanchez, replacing their prior agreements and formalizing their current base salaries, bonus targets as a p...
Executive/Board ChangesPrivate Placements and FinancingShareholder Meetings
Firefly Aerospace Expands Revolving Credit Facility and Liquidity
Neutral
Apr 3, 2026
On April 3, 2026, Firefly Aerospace, Inc. amended its existing credit agreement, expanding its senior secured revolving credit facility by $45 million to a total of $305 million while raising the interest spread by 0.25%, with borrowings now price...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Firefly Aerospace Adopts Standardized Executive Severance Plan
Neutral
Mar 4, 2026
On February 25, 2026, Firefly Aerospace, Inc.’s board compensation committee approved a new Executive Severance Plan to standardize severance and benefits for designated officers and management. The plan coordinates with existing contracts a...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.