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Firefly Aerospace, Inc.
(NASDAQ:FLY)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$27.00
▲(37.13% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/19/26
Overall score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (large losses and persistent cash burn despite revenue momentum) and limited valuation support (negative P/E, no dividend). These are partially offset by a constructive earnings-call backdrop (reiterated guidance, record backlog, strong liquidity) and moderately improving near-term technicals.
Positive Factors
Strong backlog visibility and contracted growth
The record backlog and high level of booked 2026 revenue improve forward visibility across spacecraft and launch services. This supports capacity planning and reduces reliance on securing all revenue opportunistically in the near term.
Negative Factors
Persistent losses and heavy cash consumption
Large operating losses and recurring negative free cash flow show that revenue growth has not yet produced self-funding operations. Continued investment in vehicles, facilities, and programs creates an ongoing need for external capital.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong backlog visibility and contracted growth
The record backlog and high level of booked 2026 revenue improve forward visibility across spacecraft and launch services. This supports capacity planning and reduces reliance on securing all revenue opportunistically in the near term.
Read all positive factors
Firefly Aerospace, Inc. (FLY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.87B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.32M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)4.25
Revenue Growth179.17%
EPS Growth-13.42%
CountryUS
Employees1,409
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.39
Shares Outstanding167,404,650
10 Day Avg. Volume3,520,005
30 Day Avg. Volume5,320,999
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.52
Price to Book (P/B)2.86
Price to Sales (P/S)21.26
P/FCF Ratio-14.29
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$39.50Price Target Upside100.61% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.85
Revenue Forecast (FY)$439.34M
Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Firefly Aerospace Inc. is an innovative aerospace and defense technology firm that provides advanced mission capabilities for a wide range of clients, including national security initiatives, governmental bodies, and commercial ventures. The compa...
How the Company Makes Money
Firefly Aerospace makes money primarily by selling space transportation and mission services under contract. Its key revenue streams include: (1) Launch services revenue: Firefly sells rides to orbit on its Alpha rocket to commercial customers and...
Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 11, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented strong operational and commercial momentum highlighted by record quarterly revenue ($117.7M), a record $1.5B backlog, substantial liquidity (~$940M), multiple high-profile contract wins (NASA lunar missions, MoonFall, SkyFall, Golden Dome, GBRD) and meaningful production and engine test milestones (Miranda engine). Non-GAAP profitability metrics showed quarterly improvement, and strategic acquisitions (Space-ng, SciTec) improved vertical integration. Offsetting these positives were sizable GAAP losses, negative free cash flow (worsened q/q), a slight decline in GAAP gross margin, increased operating and stock-based compensation expenses, share dilution from an equity raise, and execution/timing risks tied to launch schedules and external approvals. Given the combination of accelerating revenue/backlog, cash runway, and technical progress versus ongoing operating losses and near-term cash burn, the overall tone is constructive and growth-oriented but still depends on successful execution of launches and margin expansion.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue
Second quarter revenue of $117.7 million, up 46% sequentially and 659% year-over-year, driven by strong Spacecraft Solutions execution (Spacecraft revenue $108.3M; Launch $9.4M).
Negative Updates
Sustained Net Losses and Negative Cash Flow
GAAP net loss of $92.3M (vs. $96.7M prior quarter) and GAAP operating loss of $95.2M. Free cash flow was an outflow of $106.3M (worse than $78.9M prior quarter), a ~34.7% increase in cash outflow quarter-over-quarter.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue
Second quarter revenue of $117.7 million, up 46% sequentially and 659% year-over-year, driven by strong Spacecraft Solutions execution (Spacecraft revenue $108.3M; Launch $9.4M).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Firefly reiterated 2026 revenue guidance of $420–$450 million, anchored by Q2 results of $117.7 million (up 46% sequentially and 659% year‑over‑year), with Spacecraft revenue of $108.3M and Launch $9.4M, and a record backlog of ~$1.5 billion (up from $1.3B) and roughly 95% of 2026 revenue booked at the midpoint; Q2 GAAP gross margin was 20.3% (vs 21.6% prior), GAAP operating expenses $119.1M/non‑GAAP $94.3M, GAAP operating loss $95.2M/non‑GAAP operating loss $70.4M, GAAP net loss $92.3M/non‑GAAP net loss $67.7M, GAAP EPS ‑$0.57/non‑GAAP EPS ‑$0.42 (weighted average shares 161.8M, 166.2M outstanding at quarter end, ~167.2M expected in Q3, rising ~1M per quarter); adjusted EBITDA loss was $61.2M, total liquidity stood at $940.3M ($635.3M cash/short‑term investments + $305M revolver), Q2 capex was $24.8M, free cash flow outflow $106.3M (including a ~ $24M SciTec payment), the June equity raise contributed ~$182.6M net, and notable program and contract metrics cited include Elytra MoonFall $75M, JPL SkyFall $13M, GBRD $94M, Space‑ng adding ~15 engineers, a target of three Alpha launches in 2026 with Flight 8 targeting Q4 (Flights 10–11 in production), Miranda engine >150 hot fires including a 226s flight‑like test (MDC 206s), and an inaugural Eclipse launch targeted no earlier than 2027.Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
42
Neutral
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||
| Total Revenue | 287.01M | 159.85M | 60.79M | 55.23M |
| Gross Profit | 55.30M | 24.87M | -11.37M | 26.60M |
| EBITDA | -359.00M | -289.35M | -198.22M | -126.79M |
| Net Income | -363.46M | -298.34M | -231.13M | -135.46M |
Balance Sheet | ||||
| Total Assets | 1.64B | 1.82B | 407.33M | 321.21M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 635.26M | 892.97M | 123.43M | 81.94M |
| Total Debt | 53.40M | 308.59M | 168.40M | 120.95M |
| Total Liabilities | 416.30M | 635.00M | 1.17B | 825.69M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.22B | 1.19B | -767.62M | -504.49M |
Cash Flow | ||||
| Free Cash Flow | -326.49M | -237.75M | -190.35M | -170.68M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -264.42M | -204.92M | -157.65M | -93.43M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -509.50M | -401.56M | -32.70M | -69.99M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.01B | 1.26B | 232.76M | 240.73M |
Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Risk Analysis
Firefly Aerospace, Inc. disclosed 95 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Firefly Aerospace, Inc. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
57 Neutral | $40.86B | -241.64 | -7.56% | ― | 52.53% | 38.89% | |
54 Neutral | $3.87B | -9.67 | -32.55% | ― | 179.17% | -13.42% | |
52 Neutral | $224.72M | -3.23 | -35.30% | ― | -32.61% | 65.30% | |
49 Neutral | $454.79M | -0.88 | -88.50% | ― | -38.87% | 62.62% | |
42 Neutral | $134.91M | 4.80 | 7.80% | ― | ― | ― | |
38 Underperform | $91.37M | -0.11 | -90.48% | ― | 323.98% | 89.46% |
* Industrials Sector Average
FLY
Firefly Aerospace, Inc.
22.26
-22.79
-50.59%
SPCE
Virgin Galactic Holdings
2.97
-0.17
-5.41%
MNTS
Momentus
4.23
-19.87
-82.45%
EVTL
Vertical Aerospace
0.77
-4.25
-84.60%
RKLB
Rocket Lab USA
66.91
18.78
39.02%
SIDU
Sidus Space, Inc. Class A
2.27
1.03
83.06%
Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Firefly Aerospace Shareholders Elect Directors, Ratify Auditor
Positive
Jun 5, 2026
On June 4, 2026, Firefly Aerospace Inc. held its annual meeting of stockholders, where shareholders voted on the election of directors and the ratification of the company’s independent auditor. Stockholders elected Jason Kim and Kevin McAlli...
Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Firefly Aerospace Prices Public Equity Offering and Agreement
Positive
Jun 2, 2026
On May 28, 2026, Firefly Aerospace Inc. priced a public offering of its common stock at $48.00 per share under an effective S-1 registration, as part of a transaction involving both newly issued and existing shares. The offering, which closed with...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.