Firefly Aerospace, Inc. (FLY)
NASDAQ:FLY
Want to see FLY full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Firefly Aerospace, Inc.
(NASDAQ:FLY)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$32.00
▼(-26.81% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/06/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial quality—large losses and persistent cash burn despite improved revenue and gross profit—and a valuation profile without earnings or dividend support. Offsetting these, the earnings call reinforced strong operational momentum (record revenue, reiterated guidance, large backlog, and solid liquidity), while technicals are mixed with supportive longer-term trend but softer near-term signals.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth & Backlog
Sustained top-line acceleration and a ~ $1.3B backlog provide durable demand visibility across commercial and government programs. Positive gross profit implies unit economics improving as scale increases, supporting longer-term margin recovery as backlog converts to revenue over multiple quarters.
Negative Factors
Persistent Cash Burn
Large, consistent negative operating and free cash flow implies ongoing external funding needs and reliance on capital markets or credit. Over a 2–6 month horizon, cash burn constrains optionality, increases dilution risk, and forces prioritization of programs versus reinvestment if liquidity tightens.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth & Backlog
Sustained top-line acceleration and a ~ $1.3B backlog provide durable demand visibility across commercial and government programs. Positive gross profit implies unit economics improving as scale increases, supporting longer-term margin recovery as backlog converts to revenue over multiple quarters.
Read all positive factors
Firefly Aerospace, Inc. (FLY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.08B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)8.97M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)3.57
Revenue Growth70.66%
EPS Growth-21.52%
CountryUS
Employees780
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.38
Shares Outstanding164,235,210
10 Day Avg. Volume7,701,789
30 Day Avg. Volume8,972,420
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.59
Price to Book (P/B)2.86
Price to Sales (P/S)21.26
P/FCF Ratio-14.29
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.95
Enterprise Value/Revenue26.19
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit136.74
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-14.99
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$43.00Price Target Upside-1.65% Downside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.94
Revenue Forecast (FY)$439.60M
Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Firefly Aerospace Inc. is an innovative aerospace and defense technology firm that provides advanced mission capabilities for a wide range of clients, including national security initiatives, governmental bodies, and commercial ventures. The compa...
How the Company Makes Money
Firefly Aerospace makes money primarily by selling space transportation and mission services. Its core revenue stream is launch services: customers (commercial satellite operators and government agencies) pay for dedicated or rideshare launches to...
Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 04, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a strongly positive operational narrative: record revenue growth, high-profile milestone achievements (first commercial Moon landing), major national security awards (SciTech/Golden Dome, FORGE expansion), productive partnerships (NVIDIA, LLNL), and continued progress across Alpha and Eclipse programs. These positives are tempered by material near-term financial challenges — notably lower GAAP gross margin, wider GAAP and non-GAAP losses, increasing operating expenses, and continued cash outflows (including a Q2 acquisition payment). Liquidity remains healthy which supports ongoing execution. On balance, strategic momentum and demand signals substantially outweigh the financial headwinds this quarter.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue and Strong Growth
Delivered record Q1 revenue of $80.9 million, up ~40.2% sequentially from $57.7M and up ~44.7% year-over-year from $55.9M. Spacecraft solutions contributed $67.6M and launch contributed $13.3M.
Negative Updates
Decline in GAAP Gross Margin
GAAP gross margin fell to 21.6% from 27.7% in the prior quarter (a decline of 6.1 percentage points), attributed to a higher mix of cost-plus program contracts driving revenue mix.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue and Strong Growth
Delivered record Q1 revenue of $80.9 million, up ~40.2% sequentially from $57.7M and up ~44.7% year-over-year from $55.9M. Spacecraft solutions contributed $67.6M and launch contributed $13.3M.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Firefly reiterated 2026 revenue guidance of $420–$450 million while reporting record Q1 revenue of $80.9M (spacecraft $67.6M; launch $13.3M) and a backlog of ≈$1.3B; total liquidity was $811.6M (cash/short‑term investments $551.6M plus $260M revolver capacity, later upsized to $305M undrawn). Q1 financials included GAAP gross margin 21.6% (prior quarter 27.7%), GAAP operating expenses $113.1M (non‑GAAP $93.7M), GAAP operating loss $95.7M (non‑GAAP $76.2M), GAAP net loss $96.7M (non‑GAAP net loss $74.0M), GAAP/diluted net loss per share $0.61 (non‑GAAP $0.46), adjusted EBITDA loss $64.7M, free cash flow outflow $78.9M, CapEx $16.3M, and stock‑based compensation $12.5M; share count was 160.1M (expected to increase ~1M shares/quarter) and a final SciTech acquisition payment of ~ $24M is expected in Q2. Operationally, management is targeting three more Alpha launches in 2026 with the Block‑2 vehicle debut (Flight 8) targeted for late summer.Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
42
Neutral
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||
| Total Revenue | 184.88M | 159.85M | 60.79M | 55.23M |
| Gross Profit | 35.42M | 24.87M | -11.37M | 26.60M |
| EBITDA | -323.06M | -289.35M | -198.22M | -126.79M |
| Net Income | -334.92M | -298.34M | -231.13M | -135.46M |
Balance Sheet | ||||
| Total Assets | 1.49B | 1.82B | 407.33M | 321.21M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 551.63M | 892.97M | 123.43M | 81.94M |
| Total Debt | 52.99M | 308.59M | 168.40M | 120.95M |
| Total Liabilities | 387.11M | 635.00M | 1.17B | 825.69M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.10B | 1.19B | -767.62M | -504.49M |
Cash Flow | ||||
| Free Cash Flow | -257.45M | -237.75M | -190.35M | -170.68M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -210.93M | -204.92M | -157.65M | -93.43M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -540.24M | -401.56M | -32.70M | -69.99M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 885.08M | 1.26B | 232.76M | 240.73M |
Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Risk Analysis
Firefly Aerospace, Inc. disclosed 95 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Firefly Aerospace, Inc. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
55 Neutral | $60.57B | -357.99 | -12.26% | ― | 45.83% | 19.99% | |
54 Neutral | $5.08B | -14.85 | -57.61% | ― | 70.66% | -21.52% | |
48 Neutral | $337.29M | -1.07 | -105.02% | ― | -76.23% | 63.55% | |
44 Neutral | $98.20M | -0.19 | -401.62% | ― | 108.16% | 85.58% | |
44 Neutral | $324.78M | -7.68 | -82.97% | ― | -9.23% | 64.77% | |
43 Neutral | $271.21M | -0.64 | 251.21% | ― | ― | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
FLY
Firefly Aerospace, Inc.
31.15
-19.02
-37.91%
SPCE
Virgin Galactic Holdings
3.49
0.50
16.72%
MNTS
Momentus
10.06
-14.22
-58.57%
EVTL
Vertical Aerospace
2.14
-3.08
-59.00%
RKLB
Rocket Lab USA
107.98
77.94
259.45%
SIDU
Sidus Space, Inc. Class A
3.26
1.77
118.79%
Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Firefly Aerospace Shareholders Elect Directors, Ratify Auditor
Positive
Jun 5, 2026
On June 4, 2026, Firefly Aerospace Inc. held its annual meeting of stockholders, where shareholders voted on the election of directors and the ratification of the company’s independent auditor. Stockholders elected Jason Kim and Kevin McAlli...
Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Firefly Aerospace Prices Public Equity Offering and Agreement
Positive
Jun 2, 2026
On May 28, 2026, Firefly Aerospace Inc. priced a public offering of its common stock at $48.00 per share under an effective S-1 registration, as part of a transaction involving both newly issued and existing shares. The offering, which closed with...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Firefly Aerospace Updates Executive Employment and Severance Arrangements
Positive
Apr 21, 2026
On April 16, 2026, Firefly Aerospace, Inc. entered into new confirmatory employment letters with executives Jason Kim, Darren Ma, and Ramon Sanchez, replacing their prior agreements and formalizing their current base salaries, bonus targets as a p...
Executive/Board ChangesPrivate Placements and FinancingShareholder Meetings
Firefly Aerospace Expands Revolving Credit Facility and Liquidity
Neutral
Apr 3, 2026
On April 3, 2026, Firefly Aerospace, Inc. amended its existing credit agreement, expanding its senior secured revolving credit facility by $45 million to a total of $305 million while raising the interest spread by 0.25%, with borrowings now price...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.