Firefly Aerospace, Inc. (FLY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.46B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.91M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.48
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 780
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Aerospace & Defense
• EPS (TTM): -1.50
• Shares Outstanding: 159,251,130
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,318,450
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,905,426
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): >-0.01
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.13
• P/FCF Ratio: -0.04
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.76
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 33.19
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 230.66
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -14.62
• 1Y Price Target: $34.83
• Price Target Upside: 24.44% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: $24.50 ▼(-12.47% Downside)

Firefly Aerospace's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its weak financial performance, characterized by declining profitability and cash flow issues. While technical analysis and valuation provide mixed signals, the positive outlook from recent earnings calls and corporate events offer some optimism. Strategic acquisitions and leadership changes are promising, but financial restructuring is crucial for long-term stability.

Positive Factors

Strategic Acquisitions

The acquisition of SciTec enhances Firefly's capabilities in defense technologies, expanding its market reach and strengthening its position in national security programs.

Revenue Growth

Strong revenue growth indicates robust demand for Firefly's services, supporting long-term financial health and market expansion.

Major Contracts

Securing major contracts like the NASA lunar payload delivery enhances Firefly's credibility and ensures a steady revenue stream, contributing to sustained growth.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage and negative equity indicate financial instability, posing risks to Firefly's long-term solvency and limiting its ability to invest in growth opportunities.

Operating Losses

Rising operating losses highlight operational inefficiencies, which could hinder Firefly's ability to achieve profitability and sustain its business model.

Cash Flow Issues

Negative free cash flow suggests liquidity challenges, potentially affecting Firefly's capacity to fund operations and strategic initiatives without external financing.

Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Firefly Aerospace Inc. operates as a space and defense technology company and provides mission solutions for national security, government, and commercial customers. It offers integrated launch and space services technology that is committed to enabling launch, transit, and operations in space. The company also provides Alpha, a responsive small launch service; Eclipse, a medium-lift launch vehicle; Blue Ghost, a lunar delivery and operation service; Elytra, which offers space maneuverability and servicing; and Ocula, a lunar imaging service. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Cedar Park, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Firefly Aerospace generates revenue primarily through the launch of small satellites for commercial and government clients. The company's revenue model consists of charging clients for launch services, which includes payload integration, transportation, and flight execution. Key revenue streams include contracts with various customers, including government contracts from agencies like NASA and the Department of Defense, as well as commercial agreements with satellite operators. Additionally, Firefly has formed strategic partnerships with other aerospace companies and organizations that enhance its capabilities and market reach. The company also aims to capitalize on the growing demand for satellite-based services by offering competitive pricing and reliable launch schedules, contributing to its overall earnings.

Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Firefly Aerospace faces substantial financial challenges. Despite revenue growth, profitability metrics are declining, with a net profit margin of -380.20%. The balance sheet shows negative stockholders' equity, indicating potential solvency issues. Cash flow issues are evident, with declining free cash flow and a negative operating cash flow to net income ratio.

Income Statement

Firefly Aerospace's income statement reveals significant challenges. The company experienced a revenue growth of 10.06%, which is positive, but the gross profit margin turned negative, indicating cost management issues. The net profit margin worsened to -380.20%, reflecting deeper losses. EBIT and EBITDA margins also deteriorated, highlighting operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a concerning financial structure with negative stockholders' equity, indicating potential solvency issues. The debt-to-equity ratio is negative due to negative equity, and the return on equity is misleadingly positive due to the negative equity base. The equity ratio is not calculable, but the overall leverage and capital structure pose significant risks.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates declining free cash flow, with a negative growth rate of -11.52%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, suggesting cash flow issues relative to reported losses. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is above 1, indicating that cash outflows are somewhat aligned with net losses.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023
Income Statement
Total Revenue	102.18M	60.79M	55.23M
Gross Profit	14.71M	-11.37M	26.60M
EBITDA	-232.03M	-198.22M	-126.79M
Net Income	-257.28M	-231.13M	-135.46M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.26B	407.33M	321.21M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	995.99M	123.43M	81.94M
Total Debt	44.47M	168.40M	120.95M
Total Liabilities	307.37M	1.17B	825.69M
Stockholders Equity	948.82M	-767.62M	-504.49M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-158.42M	-190.35M	-170.68M
Operating Cash Flow	-137.66M	-157.65M	-93.43M
Investing Cash Flow	-20.76M	-32.70M	-69.99M
Financing Cash Flow	1.02B	232.76M	240.73M

Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
RKLB	57 Neutral	$44.38B	-214.29	-23.24%	―	52.42%	-1.33%
FLY	49 Neutral	$4.46B	-10.27	―	―	―	―
SIDU	49 Neutral	$279.39M	-3.33	-142.81%	―	-30.18%	80.43%
SPCE	48 Neutral	$199.08M	-0.42	-98.87%	―	-82.36%	56.88%
EVTL	45 Neutral	$640.43M	-0.71	―	―	―	―
MNTS	41 Neutral	$17.97M	-0.09	―	―	-63.81%	81.84%

Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Corporate Events

Firefly Aerospace Appoints New Chief Operating Officer

On December 11, 2025, Firefly Aerospace announced the appointment of Ramon Sanchez as its new Chief Operating Officer, effective December 22, 2025. Sanchez, who brings over two decades of experience from Boeing, will oversee Firefly’s day-to-day operations, focusing on scaling production and enhancing safety, quality, and reliability in its product lines. This leadership change aims to support Firefly’s growth and meet increasing customer demands, positioning the company for further success in the space and defense industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (FLY) stock is a Hold with a $18.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firefly Aerospace, Inc. stock, see the FLY Stock Forecast page.

Firefly Aerospace Secures Major NASA Lunar Contract

Firefly Aerospace reported a 98% increase in third-quarter revenue from the previous quarter and a 38% increase from the prior year, highlighting the company’s strong execution across multiple contracts and progress in its launch operations. The company successfully closed the acquisition of SciTec, enhancing its national security capabilities, and secured several NASA contracts, including a $176.7 million contract for lunar payload delivery. Firefly is also advancing its Blue Ghost and Elytra missions, with significant testing and development milestones achieved. The company expects full-year 2025 revenue to be between $150 million and $158 million.

The most recent analyst rating on (FLY) stock is a Sell with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firefly Aerospace, Inc. stock, see the FLY Stock Forecast page.

Firefly Aerospace Expands Credit Facility by $135 Million

On November 7, 2025, Firefly Aerospace, Inc. amended its Credit Agreement to increase its revolving credit facility by $135 million, bringing the total to $260 million. This financial move is set to mature on August 8, 2028, and reflects the company’s strategy to enhance its financial flexibility and support its growth initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (FLY) stock is a Sell with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firefly Aerospace, Inc. stock, see the FLY Stock Forecast page.

Firefly Aerospace Acquires SciTec Innovations for Growth

On October 31, 2025, Firefly Aerospace completed its acquisition of SciTec Innovations, a leader in national security technologies, for approximately $855.6 million. This acquisition, announced on November 5, 2025, enhances Firefly’s strategic growth by integrating SciTec’s defense software, big data processing, and classified facilities, thereby strengthening its capabilities in national security programs and expanding its talent pool with over 475 employees.

The most recent analyst rating on (FLY) stock is a Hold with a $27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firefly Aerospace, Inc. stock, see the FLY Stock Forecast page.

Firefly Aerospace Acquires SciTec for $855 Million

On October 5, 2025, Firefly Aerospace announced its acquisition of SciTec, Inc., a leader in national security technologies, for $855 million. This strategic move aims to enhance Firefly’s capabilities in defense missions by integrating SciTec’s advanced software and data processing expertise, which will support Firefly’s space and defense services. The acquisition, expected to close by the end of 2025, will position Firefly to deliver more integrated solutions for national security, expanding its market reach and operational advantage.

The most recent analyst rating on (FLY) stock is a Buy with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firefly Aerospace, Inc. stock, see the FLY Stock Forecast page.