Firefly Aerospace, Inc. (FLY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: N/A
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.88M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.78
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 780
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Aerospace & Defense
• EPS (TTM): -1.50
• Shares Outstanding: 159,251,130
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,737,405
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,881,712
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): >-0.01
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.13
• P/FCF Ratio: -0.04
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 10.00T>
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 33.19
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 230.66
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -14.62
• 1Y Price Target: $34.83
• Price Target Upside: 107.20% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 46 Neutral
• Price Target: $16.50 ▼(-1.84% Downside)

Firefly Aerospace's overall stock score is primarily impacted by significant financial challenges, including declining profitability and negative equity. Technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, further weighing on the score. However, the positive sentiment from the earnings call, driven by strategic acquisitions and a strong backlog, provides some optimism for future performance.

Positive Factors

Strategic Acquisition

The acquisition of SciTech enhances Firefly's software capabilities and defense sector presence, supporting long-term strategic growth.

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective execution of contracts, contributing to financial stability.

Record Backlog

A strong backlog ensures future revenue streams and reflects high demand for Firefly's services, supporting long-term business viability.

Negative Factors

Negative Profit Margins

Severe cost management issues and negative profit margins threaten financial sustainability and require strategic adjustments.

Increased Operating Loss

Rising operating losses indicate inefficiencies and financial strain, potentially impacting long-term operational capabilities.

Negative Free Cash Flow

Negative free cash flow limits financial flexibility and could hinder investment in growth opportunities, affecting future prospects.

Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Firefly Aerospace, Inc. (FLY) is an American aerospace manufacturer and small satellite launch service provider, focused on developing and delivering reliable and cost-effective launch solutions for small payloads. Founded in 2014 and headquartered in Caddo Mills, Texas, Firefly is dedicated to supporting the growing demand for small satellite launches across various sectors, including commercial, government, and scientific applications. The company's core product, the Alpha rocket, is designed to transport small satellites into low Earth orbit (LEO), while its future projects include the Beta rocket and additional technologies aimed at expanding access to space.

How the Company Makes Money

Firefly Aerospace generates revenue primarily through the launch of small satellites for commercial and government clients. The company's revenue model consists of charging clients for launch services, which includes payload integration, transportation, and flight execution. Key revenue streams include contracts with various customers, including government contracts from agencies like NASA and the Department of Defense, as well as commercial agreements with satellite operators. Additionally, Firefly has formed strategic partnerships with other aerospace companies and organizations that enhance its capabilities and market reach. The company also aims to capitalize on the growing demand for satellite-based services by offering competitive pricing and reliable launch schedules, contributing to its overall earnings.

Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Firefly Aerospace faces substantial financial challenges. Despite revenue growth, profitability metrics are declining, and the balance sheet reflects high leverage and negative equity. Cash flow issues further exacerbate the financial instability, highlighting the need for strategic financial restructuring and cost management.

Income Statement

Firefly Aerospace's income statement reveals significant challenges. The company experienced a revenue growth of 10.06%, which is positive, but the gross profit margin turned negative, indicating cost management issues. The net profit margin worsened to -380.20%, reflecting deeper losses. EBIT and EBITDA margins also deteriorated, highlighting operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a concerning financial structure with negative stockholders' equity, indicating potential solvency issues. The debt-to-equity ratio is negative due to negative equity, and the return on equity is misleadingly positive due to the negative equity base. The equity ratio is not calculable, but the overall leverage and capital structure pose significant risks.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates declining free cash flow, with a negative growth rate of -11.52%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, suggesting cash flow issues relative to reported losses. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is above 1, indicating that cash outflows are somewhat aligned with net losses.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023
Income Statement
Total Revenue	102.18M	60.79M	55.23M
Gross Profit	14.71M	-11.37M	26.60M
EBITDA	-232.03M	-198.22M	-126.79M
Net Income	-257.28M	-231.13M	-135.46M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.26B	407.33M	321.21M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	995.99M	123.43M	81.94M
Total Debt	44.47M	168.40M	120.95M
Total Liabilities	307.37M	1.17B	825.69M
Stockholders Equity	948.82M	-767.62M	-504.49M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-158.42M	-190.35M	-170.68M
Operating Cash Flow	-137.66M	-157.65M	-93.43M
Investing Cash Flow	-20.76M	-32.70M	-69.99M
Financing Cash Flow	1.02B	232.76M	240.73M

Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
RKLB	47 Neutral	$22.51B	―	-23.24%	―	52.42%	-1.33%
SPCE	47 Neutral	$239.53M	―	-98.87%	―	-82.36%	56.88%
FLY	46 Neutral	―	―	―	―	―	―
MNTS	41 Neutral	$12.22M	-0.08	―	―	-63.81%	81.84%
SIDU	38 Underperform	$24.47M	―	-142.81%	―	-30.18%	80.43%
EVTL	25 Underperform	$443.37M	―	―	―	―	―

Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Corporate Events

Firefly Aerospace’s Q3 2025 Earnings Call Highlights

Firefly Aerospace Inc.’s Q3 2025 earnings call painted a picture of a company on the rise, with strong revenue growth and strategic milestones such as the acquisition of SciTech and a significant backlog increase. Despite facing challenges like the Alpha rocket ground test anomaly and increased operating losses, the overall sentiment remained positive, buoyed by a promising revenue outlook and strategic acquisitions.

Firefly Aerospace Reports Strong Q3 Revenue Growth

Firefly Aerospace, Inc., a leading space and defense technology company, specializes in providing launch, landing, and operational solutions for government and commercial clients in the space sector. Known for its rapid-response capabilities and innovative technologies, Firefly is headquartered in Cedar Park, Texas.

Firefly Aerospace Secures Major NASA Lunar Contract

Firefly Aerospace reported a 98% increase in third-quarter revenue from the previous quarter and a 38% increase from the prior year, highlighting the company’s strong execution across multiple contracts and progress in its launch operations. The company successfully closed the acquisition of SciTec, enhancing its national security capabilities, and secured several NASA contracts, including a $176.7 million contract for lunar payload delivery. Firefly is also advancing its Blue Ghost and Elytra missions, with significant testing and development milestones achieved. The company expects full-year 2025 revenue to be between $150 million and $158 million.

The most recent analyst rating on (FLY) stock is a Sell with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firefly Aerospace, Inc. stock, see the FLY Stock Forecast page.

Firefly Aerospace Expands Credit Facility by $135 Million

On November 7, 2025, Firefly Aerospace, Inc. amended its Credit Agreement to increase its revolving credit facility by $135 million, bringing the total to $260 million. This financial move is set to mature on August 8, 2028, and reflects the company’s strategy to enhance its financial flexibility and support its growth initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (FLY) stock is a Sell with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firefly Aerospace, Inc. stock, see the FLY Stock Forecast page.

Firefly Aerospace Acquires SciTec Innovations for Growth

On October 31, 2025, Firefly Aerospace completed its acquisition of SciTec Innovations, a leader in national security technologies, for approximately $855.6 million. This acquisition, announced on November 5, 2025, enhances Firefly’s strategic growth by integrating SciTec’s defense software, big data processing, and classified facilities, thereby strengthening its capabilities in national security programs and expanding its talent pool with over 475 employees.

The most recent analyst rating on (FLY) stock is a Hold with a $27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firefly Aerospace, Inc. stock, see the FLY Stock Forecast page.

Firefly Aerospace Acquires SciTec for $855 Million

On October 5, 2025, Firefly Aerospace announced its acquisition of SciTec, Inc., a leader in national security technologies, for $855 million. This strategic move aims to enhance Firefly’s capabilities in defense missions by integrating SciTec’s advanced software and data processing expertise, which will support Firefly’s space and defense services. The acquisition, expected to close by the end of 2025, will position Firefly to deliver more integrated solutions for national security, expanding its market reach and operational advantage.

The most recent analyst rating on (FLY) stock is a Buy with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firefly Aerospace, Inc. stock, see the FLY Stock Forecast page.

Firefly Aerospace’s Earnings Call: Triumphs and Challenges

Firefly Aerospace’s recent earnings call paints a picture of both triumph and challenge. The company celebrated significant milestones such as a historic IPO and strategic partnerships, yet these achievements were contrasted by financial hurdles, including a decline in quarterly revenue and ongoing net losses. This mixed sentiment underscores a complex performance outlook for the company.

Firefly Aerospace Reports First Earnings Post-IPO

Firefly Aerospace, Inc. is a space and defense technology company that provides launch, land, and operational services in space for both government and commercial customers. Known for its rapid response capabilities, Firefly is the only commercial entity to have successfully landed on the Moon and launched a satellite into orbit with a 24-hour notice.

Firefly Aerospace Secures $176.7M NASA Contract

Firefly Aerospace announced its second quarter 2025 financial results following a historic IPO, highlighting a backlog increase to $1.3 billion and FAA clearance for its Alpha vehicle’s return to flight. Significant developments include a $176.7 million NASA contract for Blue Ghost Mission 4, a $50 million investment from Northrop Grumman, and a new contract with the U.S. Department of Defense for a 2027 mission. The company is ramping up production to meet demand for its launch services, with several Alpha vehicles in production and plans for the debut launch of the Eclipse vehicle.

The most recent analyst rating on (FLY) stock is a Buy with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firefly Aerospace, Inc. stock, see the FLY Stock Forecast page.

Firefly Aerospace Receives FAA Clearance for Alpha Launches

On August 26, 2025, Firefly Aerospace announced that it has received FAA clearance to resume Alpha rocket launches after a mishap on April 29, 2025, during Alpha Flight 6. The investigation revealed that excessive heat from Plume Induced Flow Separation caused structural issues, leading to the mishap. Corrective actions, including increasing thermal protection and adjusting flight angles, have been implemented, and Firefly is now planning for Alpha Flight 7.