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Virgin Galactic Holdings (SPCE)
NYSE:SPCE
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Virgin Galactic Holdings
(NYSE:SPCE)
Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
$4.50
▲( 20.97% Upside)
Positive Factors
Business model progress
Virgin Galactic showed tangible evidence of progress around its plan to introduce the Delta class spaceship and unlock its target business model.
Operational milestones
Operational milestones could unlock $8 per share on a DCF basis as the path to free cash flow positive becomes clearer.
Negative Factors
Cash burn risk
Despite cash balance of $744mn, ongoing cash burn remains high.
Cash flow concerns
The longer cash generating flights are delayed, the more that cash is discounted in today’s valuation.
Virgin Galactic Holdings (SPCE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$154.66M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)6.63M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.79
Revenue Growth-34.33%
EPS Growth52.30%
CountryUS
Employees744
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength92
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.38
Shares Outstanding41,574,844
10 Day Avg. Volume17,217,921
30 Day Avg. Volume6,631,468
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.03
Price to Book (P/B)0.63
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-0.41
Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.05
Enterprise Value/Revenue14.43
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-7.19
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-0.35
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.94Price Target Upside220.97% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
Virgin Galactic Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionVirgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. is a pioneering aerospace company that focuses on commercial spaceflight. Founded by Sir Richard Branson, the company aims to provide suborbital spaceflights to space tourists, as well as scientific research missions. Virgin Galactic operates in the aerospace and space tourism sectors, offering its customers a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to experience space travel and weightlessness aboard its spacecraft.
How the Company Makes MoneyVirgin Galactic makes money primarily through the sale of tickets for its commercial spaceflights. The company charges individuals for a seat on its spacecraft, with prices for a single ticket reaching up to several hundred thousand dollars. This revenue model targets affluent customers interested in the novelty and experience of space travel. Additionally, Virgin Galactic generates revenue through partnerships and contracts with research institutions and government agencies by offering its spacecraft for scientific research missions. These partnerships may involve conducting experiments in microgravity environments or testing new aerospace technologies. Other potential revenue streams include merchandise sales and licensing deals related to the Virgin Galactic brand.
Virgin Galactic Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Expense Breakdown
Details core costs like R&D, marketing, and admin, offering insight into how efficiently Virgin Galactic runs and where it’s prioritizing investment, crucial for understanding its path to profitability and strategic focus in the emerging space tourism industry.
Details core costs like R&D, marketing, and admin, offering insight into how efficiently Virgin Galactic runs and where it’s prioritizing investment, crucial for understanding its path to profitability and strategic focus in the emerging space tourism industry.
Data provided by:
Main Street Data
Main Street DataVirgin Galactic Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Virgin Galactic Holdings faces financial challenges with negative earnings and cash flow issues. Despite positive revenue growth, the high debt-to-equity ratio and declining equity indicate financial instability. Cost management and operational efficiency improvements are crucial to enhance financial health.Income Statement
Virgin Galactic Holdings exhibits strong gross profit margins, though overall profitability remains a challenge with negative net income and EBIT. Revenue growth is positive but modest, indicating room for cautious optimism. The company needs to focus on improving operational efficiency and cost management to enhance net profitability.40
Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio, pointing to potential leverage risks. Stockholders' equity is declining, and the equity ratio is weakening, indicating decreasing financial stability. Improving equity and managing debt levels are critical for long-term sustainability.35
Negative
Cash Flow
Cash flows remain negative with significant free cash flow deficits. The company is yet to generate positive operating cash flow, leading to concerns over liquidity and cash flow sustainability. Free cash flow to net income ratio suggests inefficiencies that need to be addressed to improve cash flow performance.30
Negative
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 5.51M | 7.04M | 6.80M | 2.31M | 3.29M | 238.00K | Gross Profit |
| -65.64M | -82.99M | -43.74M | 406.00K | 3.02M | 65.00K | EBIT |
| -265.47M | -376.63M | -531.51M | -499.98M | -319.54M | -275.28M | EBITDA |
| -306.72M | -318.27M | -475.64M | -476.33M | -341.28M | -635.07M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -329.21M | -346.74M | -502.34M | -500.15M | -352.90M | -273.04M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 489.52M | 563.23M | 874.04M | 909.01M | 603.90M | 665.92M | Total Assets |
| 903.93M | 961.23M | 1.18B | 1.14B | 1.07B | 803.99M | Total Debt |
| 420.69M | 420.12M | 417.89M | 415.72M | 42.48M | 27.52M | Net Debt |
| 279.93M | 241.51M | 201.09M | 113.43M | -482.00M | -638.40M | Total Liabilities |
| 631.76M | 638.95M | 674.04M | 659.72M | 174.57M | 141.47M | Stockholders Equity |
| 272.17M | 322.28M | 505.48M | 480.22M | 894.26M | 662.52M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| -470.22M | -474.56M | -492.50M | -396.73M | -235.40M | -250.36M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -315.39M | -352.70M | -448.19M | -380.24M | -230.76M | -233.16M | Investing Cash Flow |
| 100.03M | 175.66M | -116.27M | -286.17M | -387.52M | -17.20M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 157.16M | 134.34M | 475.43M | 459.00M | 489.36M | 436.59M |
Virgin Galactic Holdings Technical Analysis
Neutral
3.72
Price Trends
3.17
Positive
3.90
Negative
5.23
Negative
Market Momentum
0.25
Negative
55.81
Neutral
17.60
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SPCE, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 3.72 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.35, above the 50-day MA of 3.17, and below the 200-day MA of 5.23, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.60 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SPCE.
Virgin Galactic Holdings Risk Analysis
Virgin Galactic Holdings disclosed 59 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Virgin Galactic Holdings reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
We completed a 1-for-20 reverse stock split of our shares of common stock, which may have adverse effects on the trading of our common stock. Q4, 2024
2.
Delays in the development of our Delta Class spaceships would adversely impact our business, financial condition and results of operations. Q4, 2024
3.
Changes to United States tariff and import/export regulations may have a negative effect on us. Q4, 2024
Virgin Galactic Holdings Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64 Neutral | $4.39B | 11.81 | 5.20% | 249.38% | 3.96% | -12.36% | |
58 Neutral | $270.84M | ― | -20.64% | ― | 3.22% | -33.20% | |
48 Neutral | $154.66M | ― | -95.46% | ― | -34.33% | 52.30% | |
42 Neutral | $200.40M | ― | -47.77% | ― | -27.50% | -58.61% | |
38 Underperform | $8.97M | ― | 688.16% | ― | -46.28% | 93.33% | |
37 Underperform | $28.55M | ― | -109.05% | ― | -18.70% | 84.35% | |
37 Underperform | $3.70M | ― | -3420.59% | ― | -11.38% | -9.63% |
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
SPCE
Virgin Galactic Holdings
3.72
-17.28
-82.29%
MNTS
Momentus
1.64
-5.73
-77.75%
SLDP
Solid Power
1.51
-0.26
-14.69%
DFLI
Dragonfly Energy Holdings Corp
0.39
-8.83
-95.77%
SIDU
Sidus Space, Inc. Class A
1.56
-1.36
-46.58%
NVX
NOVONIX Ltd Sponsored ADR
1.31
-0.70
-34.83%
Virgin Galactic Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 15, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 11.04%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant progress in SpaceShip production and a strong cash position, along with plans for future initiatives and improved financial metrics. However, the company remains in a pre-revenue phase with negative free cash flow and faced some logistical challenges. Overall, the company's highlights, including strategic advancements and cost management, outweigh the lowlights.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Decreased Operating Expenses
Year-over-year operating expenses decreased by 21% to $89 million compared to $113 million in the prior year period. This was attributed to a shift in spending from research and development to capital investments.
Strong Cash Position
The company maintained a strong balance sheet with $567 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities.
SpaceShip Production Progress
Significant progress was made in developing next-generation SpaceShips, with advancements in rocket and propulsion systems, avionics, flight controls, and mechanical systems.
Launch of New Marketing Series
Virgin Galactic plans to launch a new series on their social channels to showcase the SpaceShip building process, engaging customers and investors.
Future Commercial Initiatives
Plans to reopen sales in Q1 2026 with a tailored onboarding experience for new customers and potential increased pricing. Exploration of a second Spaceport in Italy and potential new revenue streams with carrier aircraft adaptations.
Positive Adjusted EBITDA Trend
Adjusted EBITDA improved to negative $72 million from negative $87 million in the prior year period.
Negative Updates
Continued Pre-Revenue Phase
The company remains in a pre-revenue phase with revenue of only $500,000 from future astronaut access fees and event fees.
Free Cash Flow Negative
Free cash flow was negative $122 million in the first quarter, although this was within the range of guidance.
Delay in Wing Part Arrival
One of the wing parts expected to arrive at the SpaceShip factory was delayed, causing replanning of the assembly sequence.
Company Guidance
During the Virgin Galactic First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, several key metrics and guidance points were highlighted. The company anticipates its first research spaceflight in the summer of 2026, with private astronaut flights following in the fall. They reported a year-over-year decrease in operating expenses, down 21% to $89 million, reflecting a focus on creating capital assets. The company holds over $0.5 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities. Capital expenditures grew to $46 million, up from $13 million in the prior year, as they continue investing in manufacturing assets. Revenue projections for the second quarter of 2025 are approximately $400,000, while they expect free cash flow to range between negative $105 million to $115 million. The CEO discussed re-opening ticket sales in Q1 2026 with anticipated price increases from the last price of $600,000. Additionally, Virgin Galactic is exploring potential incremental revenue opportunities with their carrier aircraft in government and research sectors.Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.