Virgin Galactic Holdings (SPCE)
NYSE:SPCE
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Virgin Galactic Holdings
(NYSE:SPCE)
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Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
$3.00
▲(0.33% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/01/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (minimal revenue, ongoing losses, and heavy cash burn with rising leverage). Technicals also reflect a downtrend (price below key moving averages and negative MACD). The earnings call adds some support from clearer operational milestones and improving cost trends, but liquidity and execution risks remain significant, while valuation metrics provide limited upside signal due to negative earnings and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Manufacturing milestones completed
Completing major subassembly work materially shortens final assembly lead times and enables repeatable production. This durable improvement raises the probability of scaling spaceship throughput, lowering per-unit build cost and supporting a sustainable ramp in flight cadence once flight testing validates operations.
Negative Factors
Very high cash burn and negative free cash flow
Sustained negative free cash flow requires continual external financing and constrains strategic optionality. Until meaningful commercial revenues arrive, high burn increases dilution risk, limits reinvestment flexibility, and raises the probability that operational delays force more dilutive or costly capital measures.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Manufacturing milestones completed
Completing major subassembly work materially shortens final assembly lead times and enables repeatable production. This durable improvement raises the probability of scaling spaceship throughput, lowering per-unit build cost and supporting a sustainable ramp in flight cadence once flight testing validates operations.
Read all positive factors
Virgin Galactic Holdings (SPCE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$243.41M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.02M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.28
Revenue Growth-82.36%
EPS Growth56.88%
CountryUS
Employees744
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.98
Shares Outstanding81,408,714
10 Day Avg. Volume8,660,322
30 Day Avg. Volume4,017,635
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.60
Price to Sales (P/S)106.53
P/FCF Ratio-0.38
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.51
Enterprise Value/Revenue237.81
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-5.16
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-1.47
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$3.76Price Target Upside25.84% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)-2.66
Revenue Forecast (FY)$43.63M
Virgin Galactic Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. focuses on the development, manufacture, and operation of spaceships and related technologies for conducting commercial human spaceflight and flying commercial research and development payloads into space. It is also...
How the Company Makes Money
Virgin Galactic’s revenue model is centered on selling access to its suborbital flights and related services. Key revenue streams include: (1) Passenger spaceflight: The company sells seats for suborbital spaceflights to private customers (often m...
Virgin Galactic Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Expense Breakdown
Details core costs like R&D, marketing, and admin, offering insight into how efficiently Virgin Galactic runs and where it’s prioritizing investment, crucial for understanding its path to profitability and strategic focus in the emerging space tourism industry.
Details core costs like R&D, marketing, and admin, offering insight into how efficiently Virgin Galactic runs and where it’s prioritizing investment, crucial for understanding its path to profitability and strategic focus in the emerging space tourism industry.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyVirgin Galactic Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 30, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed strong operational and programmatic progress — completed major assembly milestones, a clear flight-test and commercial timeline, resumed sales at premium pricing, upgrades to launch-vehicle capacity, and successful capital realignment that meaningfully reduced near-term contractual debt. Financially, the company showed improving operating metrics (lower OpEx, smaller net losses and improved adjusted EBITDA) and substantial investments in manufacturing capacity. However, significant near-term liquidity and free-cash-flow challenges remain (FY2025 FCF -$438M; 2026 FCF guidance -$90M to -$95M), a going concern disclosure signals risk under GAAP assumptions, and revenue is currently minimal and timing-dependent on successful Q4 2026 commercial start. The company is relying on remaining ATM capacity, warrant structures, and expected customer payments at commercial launch to bridge the gap. Overall, operational momentum is strong but balanced against meaningful financial and execution risks.Positive Updates
Major Manufacturing Milestones Achieved
Structural assembly of all three major ship components (wing, fuselage, feather) is complete or near completion; joining of subassemblies underway with weight-on-wheels expected in weeks and ground testing (PAT/IVGT) starting in April 2026. Final assembly time materially shortened, enabling faster repeatable production.
Negative Updates
Significant Negative Free Cash Flow and Burn
Free cash flow was negative $95M in Q4 2025 (19% improvement YoY) and negative $438M for FY2025. Forecasted 2026 free cash flow is negative $90M to $95M, with the company still in a pre-revenue to early-revenue transition.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Major Manufacturing Milestones Achieved
Structural assembly of all three major ship components (wing, fuselage, feather) is complete or near completion; joining of subassemblies underway with weight-on-wheels expected in weeks and ground testing (PAT/IVGT) starting in April 2026. Final assembly time materially shortened, enabling faster repeatable production.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided an operational ramp targeting ground testing to begin in April with IVGT wrapping in July, flight testing starting in Q3 and the first commercial spaceflight targeted for Q4 2026 (partial‑burn then full‑burn test flights), a second spaceship expected late Q4 2026–early Q1 2027, rocket motor assembly beginning in Q4 2026, Eve launch vehicle capacity of 12–15 flights/month and an initial commercial cadence of ~4 flights/month ramping to 8/month and a 10+ flights/month target (~125 flights/year) in 2027 (LVX vehicles targeted for commercial deployment in 2030). Financial guidance and metrics included Q4 2025 revenue $0.3M and FY2025 revenue $2M; Q4 operating expenses $61M (‑26% YoY) and FY op expenses $287M (‑25%); Q4 net loss $63M (‑18% YoY) and FY net loss $279M (‑20%); Q4 adjusted EBITDA ‑$49M (‑23%) and FY adj. EBITDA ‑$226M (‑22%); Q4 free cash flow ‑$95M and FY free cash flow ‑$438M; ending cash $338M; 2025 CapEx $198M (vs $122M prior year) and PP&E $389M (+86%); 2026 revenue guidance $0.2M and 2026 free cash flow guidance ‑$90M to ‑$95M with sequential quarterly improvement and an expectation of modestly positive quarterly cash flow in 2027; capital moves included exchanging $355M of $425M 2027 convertibles (eliminating $142M of contractual payments and extending maturity to Dec‑2028), $122M gross ATM proceeds in 2025 with $138M remaining, and sales re‑opened with a limited tranche of 50 seats at $750,000 alongside a ~650 founding‑astronaut backlog.Virgin Galactic Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
12
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
15
Very Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.54M | 7.04M | 6.80M | 2.31M | 3.29M |
| Gross Profit | -71.22M | -82.99M | -43.74M | 406.00K | 3.02M |
| EBITDA | -249.59M | -318.27M | -475.64M | -476.33M | -341.28M |
| Net Income | -278.91M | -346.74M | -502.34M | -500.15M | -352.90M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 803.18M | 961.23M | 1.18B | 1.14B | 1.07B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 307.04M | 563.23M | 874.04M | 909.01M | 629.45M |
| Total Debt | 324.19M | 420.12M | 491.10M | 475.38M | 42.48M |
| Total Liabilities | 529.22M | 638.95M | 674.04M | 659.72M | 174.57M |
| Stockholders Equity | 273.96M | 322.28M | 505.48M | 480.22M | 894.26M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -438.19M | -474.56M | -492.50M | -396.73M | -235.40M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -240.14M | -352.70M | -448.19M | -380.24M | -230.76M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 90.84M | 175.66M | -116.27M | -286.17M | -387.52M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 114.13M | 134.34M | 475.43M | 459.00M | 489.36M |
Virgin Galactic Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
2.99
Price Trends
2.58
Positive
3.01
Negative
3.26
Negative
Market Momentum
0.03
Negative
63.79
Neutral
77.93
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SPCE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.99 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.51, above the 50-day MA of 2.58, and below the 200-day MA of 3.26, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.93 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SPCE.
Virgin Galactic Holdings Risk Analysis
Virgin Galactic Holdings disclosed 59 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Virgin Galactic Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Virgin Galactic Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | $12.17B | -31.13 | -69.61% | ― | 16.89% | -4.41% | |
52 Neutral | $252.11M | -2.64 | -108.48% | ― | -30.18% | 80.43% | |
47 Neutral | $3.98B | -7.59 | -37.76% | ― | ― | 11.14% | |
44 Neutral | $243.41M | -0.82 | -107.75% | ― | -82.36% | 56.88% | |
43 Neutral | $771.61M | -15.01 | -22.42% | ― | 23.58% | 20.74% | |
43 Neutral | $223.08M | 1.54 | -174.08% | ― | ― | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
SPCE
Virgin Galactic Holdings
2.99
0.34
12.83%
EH
Ehang Holdings
10.75
-4.86
-31.13%
EVTL
Vertical Aerospace
2.18
-1.21
-35.69%
ACHR
Archer Aviation
5.34
-2.09
-28.13%
PL
Planet Labs PBC
35.17
31.56
874.24%
SIDU
Sidus Space, Inc. Class A
3.79
2.48
189.31%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.