Virgin Galactic Holdings (SPCE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $221.20M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.92M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.23
• Revenue Growth: -82.36%
• EPS Growth: 56.88%
• Country: US
• Employees: 744
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Aerospace & Defense
• EPS (TTM): -1.09
• Shares Outstanding: 63,200,245
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,556,577
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,923,968
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.46
• Price to Sales (P/S): 20.85
• P/FCF Ratio: -0.31
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.26
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 168.38
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -3.62
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -1.06
• 1Y Price Target: $3.66
• Price Target Upside: 4.57% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): -5.55
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.71M

• Rating: 48 Neutral
• Price Target: $4.00 ▲(14.29% Upside)

Virgin Galactic's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its weak financial performance and valuation, reflecting significant challenges in profitability and cash flow. However, the company's strategic initiatives, including capital restructuring and advancements in its SpaceShip program, provide some positive outlooks. Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, but the earnings call and corporate events offer potential for future improvement.

Positive Factors

Capital Restructuring

The capital restructuring reduces near-term debt and extends maturities, enhancing financial flexibility and supporting long-term growth initiatives.

SpaceShip Program Advancements

Progress in the SpaceShip program, including milestones and reusability, strengthens Virgin Galactic's competitive position in space tourism.

New Collaboration

The collaboration could enhance technological capabilities and open new revenue streams, supporting long-term innovation and growth.

Negative Factors

Negative Revenue Growth

Significant negative revenue growth indicates declining sales, challenging Virgin Galactic's ability to scale operations and achieve profitability.

High Leverage

High leverage poses financial risks, limiting flexibility and increasing vulnerability to economic downturns, impacting long-term stability.

Cash Flow Challenges

Negative cash flows highlight operational inefficiencies and strain on liquidity, potentially hindering investment in growth and innovation.

Virgin Galactic Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Virgin Galactic Holdings (SPCE) is a publicly traded company focused on space tourism and suborbital spaceflight. Founded by Sir Richard Branson, the company operates within the aerospace sector, aiming to provide commercial space travel experiences to private individuals and researchers. Its core product is the SpaceShipTwo, a commercial spaceplane designed to carry passengers on brief journeys to the edge of space, providing a unique experience of weightlessness and spectacular views of Earth.

How the Company Makes Money

Virgin Galactic generates revenue primarily through ticket sales for its suborbital spaceflights. The company has pre-sold tickets to customers aspiring to experience space travel, with prices initially set at around $200,000 to $250,000 per ticket. Additionally, Virgin Galactic is exploring partnerships with government and commercial entities to facilitate research and payload flights, which represent another potential revenue stream. The company may also derive income from merchandise and future developments in space tourism and technology, including potential collaborations with other aerospace companies or sectors. As it scales operations and increases flight frequency, the company anticipates enhancing its earnings through expanded customer bases and operational efficiencies.

Virgin Galactic Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Virgin Galactic Holdings faces significant financial challenges, with negative profitability and cash flow issues. The income statement shows negative margins and declining revenue, while the balance sheet indicates high leverage. Despite some positive aspects like a moderate equity ratio, the overall financial health is weak.

Income Statement

Virgin Galactic Holdings has experienced significant challenges in its income statement metrics. The company shows negative gross profit and net profit margins, indicating it is not currently profitable. Revenue growth is also negative in the TTM period, suggesting declining sales. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are deeply negative, reflecting operational inefficiencies and high costs relative to revenue.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risks. The return on equity is negative, showing that the company is not generating returns for shareholders. However, the equity ratio suggests a moderate level of equity financing relative to total assets, which provides some stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow metrics indicate negative operating and free cash flows, with a declining free cash flow growth rate. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting cash flow challenges. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting some ability to cover net losses with free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.66M	7.04M	6.80M	2.31M	3.29M	238.00K
Gross Profit	-77.26M	-82.99M	-43.74M	406.00K	3.02M	65.00K
EBITDA	-263.07M	-318.27M	-475.64M	-476.33M	-341.28M	-635.06M
Net Income	-292.60M	-346.74M	-502.34M	-500.15M	-352.90M	-644.89M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	853.54M	961.23M	1.18B	1.14B	1.07B	803.99M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	423.57M	563.23M	874.04M	909.01M	629.45M	665.92M
Total Debt	474.53M	420.12M	491.10M	475.38M	42.48M	27.15M
Total Liabilities	627.65M	638.95M	674.04M	659.72M	174.57M	276.91M
Stockholders Equity	225.90M	322.28M	505.48M	480.22M	894.26M	527.08M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-460.30M	-474.56M	-492.50M	-396.73M	-235.40M	-250.36M
Operating Cash Flow	-268.70M	-352.70M	-448.19M	-380.24M	-230.76M	-233.16M
Investing Cash Flow	89.08M	175.66M	-116.27M	-286.17M	-387.52M	-17.20M
Financing Cash Flow	133.70M	134.34M	475.43M	459.00M	489.36M	436.59M

Virgin Galactic Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 3.50
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SPCE, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 3.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.67, below the 50-day MA of 3.79, and above the 200-day MA of 3.41, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SPCE.

Virgin Galactic Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
PL	57 Neutral	$6.02B	-44.99	-31.83%	―	16.89%	-4.41%
ACHR	49 Neutral	$5.98B	-6.89	-59.13%	―	―	11.14%
SPCE	48 Neutral	$221.20M	-0.47	-98.87%	―	-82.36%	56.88%
SIDU	44 Neutral	$40.89M	-0.90	-142.81%	―	-30.18%	80.43%
EH	43 Neutral	$981.20M	-31.59	-24.60%	―	23.58%	20.74%
EVTL	25 Underperform	$547.81M	-0.61	―	―	―	―

Virgin Galactic Holdings Corporate Events

Virgin Galactic Reshapes Capital Structure With New Financing

On December 18, 2025, Virgin Galactic repurchased approximately $354.6 million of its 2.50% convertible senior notes due 2027, sharply reducing the outstanding principal on these securities from $425 million to about $70.4 million, and funded the move through a combination of a registered equity offering and a concurrent private debt and warrant placement. The company issued roughly 2.2 million common shares and pre-funded warrants for about 8.4 million additional shares in a registered direct offering, while simultaneously raising about $212.5 million via a new series of 9.80% first-lien notes due 2028 and issuing purchase warrants for approximately 31.7 million shares in a private placement, significantly reshaping its capital structure by exchanging near-term convertible debt for longer-dated secured notes and equity-linked securities, with detailed redemption schedules and covenant protections that will influence its future financing flexibility and obligations to institutional investors.

Virgin Galactic Announces Capital Realignment Transactions

On December 9, 2025, Virgin Galactic Holdings announced a series of capital realignment transactions involving the repurchase of approximately $355 million of its existing convertible notes due 2027. This move is expected to reduce the company’s indebtedness by $152 million and extend the maturity of its remaining debt to 2028, aligning with its planned growth in Spaceline commercial operations. The company will issue and sell approximately $46 million in shares and pre-funded warrants through a registered offering, and $203 million in new notes and purchase warrants through a private placement. These transactions are set to close on December 18, 2025, subject to customary conditions.