Virgin Galactic Holdings (SPCE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $177.96M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.13M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.54
• Revenue Growth: -84.19%
• EPS Growth: 55.27%
• Country: US
• Employees: 744
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 73
• Industry: Aerospace & Defense
• EPS (TTM): -1.47
• Shares Outstanding: 57,590,965
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,328,365
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,130,127
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.61
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 63.78
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -1.47
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -0.40
• 1Y Price Target: $3.04
• Price Target Upside: -1.30% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 47 Neutral
• Price Target: $3.00 ▼(-2.60% Downside)

Virgin Galactic Holdings' overall stock score is primarily impacted by its poor financial performance, characterized by persistent losses and high leverage. The technical analysis suggests a bearish trend, and the valuation metrics are unattractive due to negative earnings. However, the earnings call and corporate events provide some optimism with strategic advancements and leadership stability. Despite these positive aspects, the immediate financial challenges and project delays weigh heavily on the stock's overall score.

Positive Factors

Financial Support

Virgin Galactic's current cash and marketable securities of $567MM support near-term needs with additional financing available to bridge to the positive economics to be unlocked in 2027/2028.

Future Growth Plans

The company plans to continue to utilize the $300mn at-the-market equity raise capacity announced in Q3 2024 to support future growth.

Operational Progress

SPCE has completed the spaceship design phase and is now in a fabrication & assembly phase.

Negative Factors

Business Viability Concerns

The market continues to question the viability of the company’s business model and path to profitability, with a limited catalyst path until the resumption of revenue-generating flights.

Cash Burn

Cash burn for the quarter was $114mn, slightly improved from $122mn in Q1, but still remains significantly above the target of below $100 million.

Schedule Delays

The company has postponed the launch of its research ship program from Summer 2026 to Fall 2026 due to fuselage issues.

Virgin Galactic Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. focuses on the development, manufacture, and operation of spaceships and related technologies for conducting commercial human spaceflight and flying commercial research and development payloads into space. It is also involved in the ground and flight testing, and post-flight maintenance of its spaceflight system vehicles. The company serves private individuals, researchers, and government agencies. Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2017 is headquartered in Las Cruces, New Mexico. Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. was a former subsidiary of Virgin Orbit Holdings, Inc.

How the Company Makes Money

Virgin Galactic generates revenue primarily through the sale of tickets for its suborbital spaceflights, targeting wealthy individuals, researchers, and commercial entities interested in unique space experiences. The company offers a premium experience, with ticket prices initially set at around $250,000 per seat. Additional revenue streams may include partnerships with research organizations and universities for conducting scientific experiments during flights, as well as potential collaborations with other aerospace companies and government agencies. The company's earnings are also influenced by its ability to scale operations, attract customers, and successfully complete test flights leading to commercial operations.

Virgin Galactic Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Virgin Galactic Holdings is facing significant financial challenges across all verticals. The income statement reflects persistent losses and declining revenue, while the balance sheet shows increasing leverage and negative returns on equity. Cash flow metrics highlight ongoing cash outflows and inefficiencies in converting profits to cash. The company needs to address its operational inefficiencies and financial leverage to improve its financial health and stability.

Income Statement

Virgin Galactic Holdings has been experiencing significant challenges in its income statement. The company shows negative gross profit margins, indicating that the cost of goods sold exceeds revenue. The net profit margin is also deeply negative, reflecting substantial losses. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a notable decline in the TTM period. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, highlighting operational inefficiencies and high operating costs relative to revenue.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio, which has increased over time, indicating rising financial leverage and potential risk. The return on equity is negative, suggesting that the company is not generating profits from its equity base. The equity ratio is relatively low, reflecting a higher proportion of debt in the capital structure. These factors point to financial instability and potential liquidity concerns.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows negative operating and free cash flows, indicating cash outflows from operations and investments. The free cash flow growth rate is slightly positive in the TTM period, but overall cash flow metrics are concerning. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, suggesting that the company is not converting its accounting profits into cash effectively. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, but this is primarily due to the large net losses.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.70M	7.04M	6.80M	2.31M	3.29M	238.00K
Gross Profit	-73.48M	-82.99M	-43.74M	406.00K	3.02M	65.00K
EBITDA	-272.89M	-318.27M	-475.64M	-476.33M	-341.28M	-635.07M
Net Income	-302.72M	-346.74M	-502.34M	-500.15M	-352.90M	-273.04M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	898.82M	961.23M	1.18B	1.14B	1.07B	803.99M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	499.51M	563.23M	874.04M	909.01M	603.90M	665.92M
Total Debt	483.22M	420.12M	417.89M	415.72M	42.48M	27.52M
Total Liabilities	635.44M	638.95M	674.04M	659.72M	174.57M	141.47M
Stockholders Equity	263.37M	322.28M	505.48M	480.22M	894.26M	662.52M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-470.48M	-474.56M	-492.50M	-396.73M	-235.40M	-250.36M
Operating Cash Flow	-291.71M	-352.70M	-448.19M	-380.24M	-230.76M	-233.16M
Investing Cash Flow	122.61M	175.66M	-116.27M	-286.17M	-387.52M	-17.20M
Financing Cash Flow	147.99M	134.34M	475.43M	459.00M	489.36M	436.59M

Virgin Galactic Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 3.08
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SPCE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.08 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.08, below the 50-day MA of 3.30, and below the 200-day MA of 4.09, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SPCE.

Virgin Galactic Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PL	73 Outperform	$2.02B	―	-22.54%	―	9.52%	24.27%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$10.73B	15.65	7.61%	2.01%	2.80%	-14.92%
ACHR	49 Neutral	$5.55B	―	-60.83%	―	―	-4.00%
SPCE	47 Neutral	$177.96M	―	-91.98%	―	-84.19%	55.27%
EH	47 Neutral	$1.12B	―	-30.69%	―	87.67%	18.33%
SIDU	42 Neutral	$30.79M	―	-157.68%	―	-2.60%	82.24%
EVTL	25 Underperform	$468.89M	―	115.25%	―	―	―

Virgin Galactic Holdings Corporate Events

Virgin Galactic Updates Bylaws for Modern Governance

On August 28, 2025, Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. amended its by-laws to change voting standards, address universal proxy rules, and enhance procedural mechanics for stockholder meetings. These amendments aim to modernize governance practices and ensure compliance with regulatory requirements, potentially impacting shareholder engagement and corporate governance.

Virgin Galactic Extends CEO Michael Colglazier’s Contract

On July 29, 2025, Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. amended and restated the employment agreement with CEO Michael Colglazier, extending his term for five years with automatic annual renewals. The agreement includes an increased base salary, a target annual bonus, and a retention bonus linked to the company’s first revenue-generating Delta spaceflight, reflecting the company’s commitment to leadership stability and incentivizing performance in its commercial spaceflight endeavors.

Virgin Galactic Approves New Incentive and Stock Plans

On June 5, 2025, Virgin Galactic Holdings held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders where two significant plans were approved: the Third Amended and Restated 2019 Incentive Award Plan, and the 2025 Employee Stock Purchase Plan. The Third A&R Plan increases the number of shares available for incentive stock options and extends the right to grant awards through 2035, while the ESPP allows eligible employees to purchase shares, aiming to enhance employee engagement and ownership. The approval of these plans is expected to impact the company’s operations by potentially increasing employee investment in the company, thereby aligning employee interests with those of shareholders.