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Virgin Galactic Holdings
(NYSE:SPCE)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$3.00
▲(20.48% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/19/26
The score is primarily held down by very weak financial performance—minimal and declining revenue, deeply negative margins, and substantial ongoing free-cash-flow burn. Technicals are modestly supportive (price above key moving averages with neutral-to-positive momentum), while valuation lacks traditional support due to losses and no dividend. The earnings call and recent financing/debt actions provide a clearer medium-term path toward commercialization and improved liquidity, but near-term execution and cash-burn risks remain significant.
Positive Factors
Diversified and growing customer demand
Oversubscribed bookings and a customer base above 700 indicate meaningful demand for the service. Multi-seat groups, research, corporate and nonprofit customers also broaden the demand mix and may support repeatable sales as capacity expands.
Negative Factors
Minimal and declining revenue base
The current revenue base is too small to support the company’s cost structure, leaving results dependent on successful commercial launch and rapid flight expansion. Until service begins, limited revenue provides little cushion against development and operating expenses.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Diversified and growing customer demand
Oversubscribed bookings and a customer base above 700 indicate meaningful demand for the service. Multi-seat groups, research, corporate and nonprofit customers also broaden the demand mix and may support repeatable sales as capacity expands.
Read all positive factors
Virgin Galactic Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Expense Breakdown
Details core costs like R&D, marketing, and admin, offering insight into how efficiently Virgin Galactic runs and where it’s prioritizing investment, crucial for understanding its path to profitability and strategic focus in the emerging space tourism industry.
Details core costs like R&D, marketing, and admin, offering insight into how efficiently Virgin Galactic runs and where it’s prioritizing investment, crucial for understanding its path to profitability and strategic focus in the emerging space tourism industry.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyVirgin Galactic Holdings (SPCE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$466.92M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)20.47M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.62
Revenue Growth-38.87%
EPS Growth62.62%
CountryUS
Employees694
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-3.38
Shares Outstanding151,595,900
10 Day Avg. Volume10,126,085
30 Day Avg. Volume20,473,882
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.60
Price to Sales (P/S)106.53
P/FCF Ratio-0.38
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit>-0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$2.50Price Target Upside0.40% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-2.53
Revenue Forecast (FY)$10.41M
Virgin Galactic Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc., an aerospace and space travel company, focuses on the development, manufacture, and operation of spaceships and related technologies. It engages in the design and development, manufacturing, ground and flight testin...
How the Company Makes Money
Virgin Galactic primarily makes money from commercial human spaceflight and closely related services. Its key revenue streams include: (1) Spaceflight experience revenue: payments from customers for suborbital spaceflight flights, generally includ...
Virgin Galactic Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 12, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a broadly positive long-term outlook driven by strong, diversified demand (multiple tranches selling out and >700 community members), meaningful unit economics (estimated $60M ship cost and >80% contribution margin yielding >$1.4B lifetime contribution margin per ship), improved liquidity (raised $134M and cash up ~14%), and ambitious flight-rate and EBITDA targets (10+ flights/month by mid‑2027; annualized adjusted EBITDA targets of ~$100M at modest scale). Near-term negatives include schedule slips that pushed commercial start to February 2027, temporary higher CapEx and incremental spending in Q3/Q4, continued negative free cash flow through 2026, and operational rework due to fit/tolerance issues. On balance the positives around demand, unit economics, strengthened balance sheet and clear path to revenue/cash inflows outweigh the short-term execution and cash burn challenges, supporting confidence in the company’s medium-to-long-term prospects.Positive Updates
Strong Demand and Oversubscribed Tranche
Recent tranche of spaceflight expeditions at the $750,000 price point was oversubscribed, adding over $50 million to expected future spaceflight revenue; company closed the tranche early and will retire the $750,000 price point, planning to reopen at higher price points this fall.
Negative Updates
Schedule Delay on First Commercial Flight
First commercial spaceflight moved to February (roughly a couple months later than prior expectations) due to modest duration extensions across hundreds of small avionics and systems installation tasks; integrated vehicle ground testing start delayed nearly two months.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Demand and Oversubscribed Tranche
Recent tranche of spaceflight expeditions at the $750,000 price point was oversubscribed, adding over $50 million to expected future spaceflight revenue; company closed the tranche early and will retire the $750,000 price point, planning to reopen at higher price points this fall.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company provided detailed near‑ and medium‑term guidance: Q3 2026 revenue is forecast at approximately $400,000, with free cash flow expected to be negative $95–$100 million (reflecting a temporary uptick in CapEx), and Q4 free cash flow projected at negative $80–$90 million; Q2 results included $286 million of cash (up from $251 million), $65 million of operating expenses (vs. $70M a year ago), $41 million of CapEx (vs. $58M), and free cash flow of negative $91 million (a 20% improvement year‑over‑year), and the company raised $134 million via its ATM while reducing note principal by $93 million (leaving $17.9 million due on 2027 notes and no 2028 principal due until March 2028). They expect revenue recognition and customer cash inflows to begin with the start of commercial service in February 2027 (first commercial flight moved to February, second ship joining in March), target a flight rate of 10+ flights per month by the end of Q2 2027, and forecast quarterly positive cash flow within 2027; unit economics assume ~$60 million production cost per spaceship, ~500 flight lifetime, 6 seats, ~$600,000 average price, >80% contribution margin (> $1.4 billion lifetime contribution margin per ship), initial rocket production of ~3 motors/week (scalable toward ~15/week), Eve mothership operating cadence ~3 flights/week, and scale‑up scenarios showing ~ $100M annualized adjusted EBITDA with two ships at $600k average price, >$450M/year for one fully utilized spaceport with 4 ships + launch vehicle, and >$1B adjusted EBITDA with two fully utilized spaceports.Virgin Galactic Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
6
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
42
Neutral
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.04M | 1.54M | 7.04M | 6.80M | 2.31M | 3.29M |
| Gross Profit | -106.53M | -87.71M | -82.99M | -43.74M | 406.00K | 3.02M |
| EBITDA | -221.54M | -249.59M | -318.27M | -475.64M | -476.33M | -341.28M |
| Net Income | -247.74M | -278.91M | -346.74M | -502.34M | -500.15M | -352.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 816.28M | 803.18M | 961.23M | 1.18B | 1.14B | 1.07B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 255.05M | 307.04M | 563.23M | 874.04M | 909.01M | 629.45M |
| Total Debt | 265.09M | 374.95M | 493.12M | 491.10M | 475.38M | 42.48M |
| Total Liabilities | 420.16M | 529.22M | 638.95M | 674.04M | 659.72M | 174.57M |
| Stockholders Equity | 396.11M | 273.96M | 322.28M | 505.48M | 480.22M | 894.26M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -386.46M | -438.19M | -474.56M | -492.50M | -396.73M | -235.40M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -212.45M | -240.14M | -352.70M | -448.19M | -380.24M | -230.76M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 75.19M | 90.84M | 175.66M | -116.27M | -286.17M | -387.52M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 161.94M | 114.13M | 134.34M | 475.43M | 459.00M | 489.36M |
Virgin Galactic Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
2.49
Price Trends
2.95
Positive
3.09
Negative
3.07
Positive
Market Momentum
0.09
Negative
52.51
Neutral
44.97
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SPCE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.49 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.96, below the 50-day MA of 2.95, and below the 200-day MA of 3.07, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SPCE.
Virgin Galactic Holdings Risk Analysis
Virgin Galactic Holdings disclosed 62 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Virgin Galactic Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Virgin Galactic Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
57 Neutral | $43.42B | -262.08 | -7.56% | ― | 52.53% | 38.89% | |
55 Neutral | $1.86T | -88.94 | -7.63% | ― | ― | ― | |
54 Neutral | $4.09B | -10.23 | -32.55% | ― | 179.17% | -13.42% | |
53 Neutral | $3.00B | -8.23 | -20.75% | ― | 63.10% | 55.06% | |
50 Neutral | $4.19B | -19.50 | 26.62% | ― | 116.89% | 64.21% | |
49 Neutral | $466.92M | -0.91 | -88.50% | ― | -38.87% | 62.62% |
* Industrials Sector Average
SPCE
Virgin Galactic Holdings
3.08
-0.23
-6.95%
RKLB
Rocket Lab USA
72.57
25.35
53.68%
RDW
Redwire
12.02
3.08
34.45%
LUNR
Intuitive Machines
18.32
9.46
106.77%
FLY
Firefly Aerospace, Inc.
24.45
-20.27
-45.33%
SPCX
SpaceX
136.97
-23.98
-14.90%
Virgin Galactic Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyLegal Proceedings
Virgin Galactic Gains Final Approval in Derivative Settlement
Positive
Aug 18, 2026
On August 18, 2026, Virgin Galactic reported that the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of New York granted final approval on August 14, 2026 to a settlement resolving two consolidated shareholder derivative lawsuits. The settlement ful...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Virgin Galactic Executes Convertible Note Exchange to Boost Liquidity
Positive
Jun 22, 2026
On June 22, 2026, Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. entered into a privately negotiated exchange agreement with a holder of its 2.50% Convertible Senior Notes due 2027 to swap approximately $52.5 million in principal amount for newly issued common st...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Virgin Galactic Shareholders Approve Expanded Long-Term Incentive Plan
Positive
Jun 15, 2026
Virgin Galactic shareholders approved the company’s Fourth Amended and Restated 2019 Incentive Award Plan at the June 11, 2026 annual meeting, expanding the share reserve to 17,120,437 shares, increasing the capacity for incentive stock opti...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Virgin Galactic Uses Equity to Redeem High-Interest Debt
Positive
Jun 10, 2026
Virgin Galactic has executed a capital management move aimed at improving liquidity and reducing debt-related concentration risk as it prepares for commercial operations in the fourth quarter of 2026, partially redeeming its 9.80% First Lien Notes...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Virgin Galactic restructures notes to bolster liquidity outlook
Positive
Jun 2, 2026
Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. has moved to strengthen liquidity and financial flexibility ahead of its planned commercial operations in the fourth quarter of 2026 by restructuring near-term obligations on its 9.80% First Lien Notes due 2028. On M...
Legal Proceedings
Virgin Galactic Gets Preliminary Approval for Derivative Suit Settlement
Neutral
May 28, 2026
Virgin Galactic said that on May 19, 2026, the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of New York granted preliminary approval to a proposed settlement of consolidated stockholder derivative suits alleging fiduciary breaches tied to events f...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.