Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc (SPCE)
NYSE:SPCE
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Virgin Galactic Holdings
(NYSE:SPCE)
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Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
$3.00
▲(2.39% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/19/26
The score is held back primarily by very weak fundamentals (minimal/declining revenue, large losses, and substantial negative free cash flow) and continued funding/liquidity reliance. Offsetting factors include a clearer operational ramp toward commercial flights and modestly improving cost trends from the earnings call, plus mildly improving near-term technical momentum, but valuation offers limited support due to negative earnings and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Defined commercial flight ramp
A clear, multi-stage flight-test and commercial timeline provides durable operational visibility. If executed, the staged ramp to monthly and annual flight cadence enables predictable capacity scaling, revenue recognition, and operational learning that support margin improvement and long-term unit economics.
Negative Factors
Heavy cash burn and negative FCF
Sustained, large negative operating and free cash flow is a structural constraint that forces reliance on external financing. Ongoing cash burn reduces strategic optionality, raises refinancing risk, and can mandate dilutive funding or cutbacks to capex and operations if commercial revenues do not materialize as planned.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Defined commercial flight ramp
A clear, multi-stage flight-test and commercial timeline provides durable operational visibility. If executed, the staged ramp to monthly and annual flight cadence enables predictable capacity scaling, revenue recognition, and operational learning that support margin improvement and long-term unit economics.
Read all positive factors
Virgin Galactic Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Expense Breakdown
Details core costs like R&D, marketing, and admin, offering insight into how efficiently Virgin Galactic runs and where it’s prioritizing investment, crucial for understanding its path to profitability and strategic focus in the emerging space tourism industry.
Details core costs like R&D, marketing, and admin, offering insight into how efficiently Virgin Galactic runs and where it’s prioritizing investment, crucial for understanding its path to profitability and strategic focus in the emerging space tourism industry.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyVirgin Galactic Holdings (SPCE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$248.69M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)9.48M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.18
Revenue Growth-76.23%
EPS Growth63.55%
CountryUS
Employees744
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-4.35
Shares Outstanding100,683,440
10 Day Avg. Volume9,797,454
30 Day Avg. Volume9,484,216
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.60
Price to Sales (P/S)106.53
P/FCF Ratio-0.38
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.47
Enterprise Value/Revenue279.73
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-3.80
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-1.50
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$3.61Price Target Upside23.21% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)-2.6
Revenue Forecast (FY)$39.48M
Virgin Galactic Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. focuses on the development, manufacture, and operation of spaceships and related technologies for conducting commercial human spaceflight and flying commercial research and development payloads into space. It is also...
How the Company Makes Money
Virgin Galactic’s revenue model is centered on selling access to its suborbital flights and related services. Key revenue streams include: (1) Passenger spaceflight: The company sells seats for suborbital spaceflights to private customers (often m...
Virgin Galactic Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 30, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed strong operational and programmatic progress — completed major assembly milestones, a clear flight-test and commercial timeline, resumed sales at premium pricing, upgrades to launch-vehicle capacity, and successful capital realignment that meaningfully reduced near-term contractual debt. Financially, the company showed improving operating metrics (lower OpEx, smaller net losses and improved adjusted EBITDA) and substantial investments in manufacturing capacity. However, significant near-term liquidity and free-cash-flow challenges remain (FY2025 FCF -$438M; 2026 FCF guidance -$90M to -$95M), a going concern disclosure signals risk under GAAP assumptions, and revenue is currently minimal and timing-dependent on successful Q4 2026 commercial start. The company is relying on remaining ATM capacity, warrant structures, and expected customer payments at commercial launch to bridge the gap. Overall, operational momentum is strong but balanced against meaningful financial and execution risks.Positive Updates
Major Manufacturing Milestones Achieved
Structural assembly of all three major ship components (wing, fuselage, feather) is complete or near completion; joining of subassemblies underway with weight-on-wheels expected in weeks and ground testing (PAT/IVGT) starting in April 2026. Final assembly time materially shortened, enabling faster repeatable production.
Negative Updates
Significant Negative Free Cash Flow and Burn
Free cash flow was negative $95M in Q4 2025 (19% improvement YoY) and negative $438M for FY2025. Forecasted 2026 free cash flow is negative $90M to $95M, with the company still in a pre-revenue to early-revenue transition.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Major Manufacturing Milestones Achieved
Structural assembly of all three major ship components (wing, fuselage, feather) is complete or near completion; joining of subassemblies underway with weight-on-wheels expected in weeks and ground testing (PAT/IVGT) starting in April 2026. Final assembly time materially shortened, enabling faster repeatable production.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided an operational ramp targeting ground testing to begin in April with IVGT wrapping in July, flight testing starting in Q3 and the first commercial spaceflight targeted for Q4 2026 (partial‑burn then full‑burn test flights), a second spaceship expected late Q4 2026–early Q1 2027, rocket motor assembly beginning in Q4 2026, Eve launch vehicle capacity of 12–15 flights/month and an initial commercial cadence of ~4 flights/month ramping to 8/month and a 10+ flights/month target (~125 flights/year) in 2027 (LVX vehicles targeted for commercial deployment in 2030). Financial guidance and metrics included Q4 2025 revenue $0.3M and FY2025 revenue $2M; Q4 operating expenses $61M (‑26% YoY) and FY op expenses $287M (‑25%); Q4 net loss $63M (‑18% YoY) and FY net loss $279M (‑20%); Q4 adjusted EBITDA ‑$49M (‑23%) and FY adj. EBITDA ‑$226M (‑22%); Q4 free cash flow ‑$95M and FY free cash flow ‑$438M; ending cash $338M; 2025 CapEx $198M (vs $122M prior year) and PP&E $389M (+86%); 2026 revenue guidance $0.2M and 2026 free cash flow guidance ‑$90M to ‑$95M with sequential quarterly improvement and an expectation of modestly positive quarterly cash flow in 2027; capital moves included exchanging $355M of $425M 2027 convertibles (eliminating $142M of contractual payments and extending maturity to Dec‑2028), $122M gross ATM proceeds in 2025 with $138M remaining, and sales re‑opened with a limited tranche of 50 seats at $750,000 alongside a ~650 founding‑astronaut backlog.Virgin Galactic Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
8
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
12
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.31M | 1.54M | 7.04M | 6.80M | 2.31M | 3.29M |
| Gross Profit | -96.45M | -87.71M | -82.99M | -43.74M | 406.00K | 3.02M |
| EBITDA | -244.06M | -266.61M | -318.27M | -475.64M | -476.33M | -341.28M |
| Net Income | -259.13M | -278.91M | -346.74M | -502.34M | -500.15M | -352.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 750.23M | 803.18M | 961.23M | 1.18B | 1.14B | 1.07B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 219.89M | 307.04M | 563.23M | 874.04M | 909.01M | 629.45M |
| Total Debt | 319.74M | 324.19M | 420.12M | 491.10M | 475.38M | 42.48M |
| Total Liabilities | 526.50M | 529.22M | 638.95M | 674.04M | 659.72M | 174.57M |
| Stockholders Equity | 223.73M | 273.96M | 322.28M | 505.48M | 480.22M | 894.26M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -409.53M | -438.19M | -474.56M | -492.50M | -396.73M | -235.40M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -217.72M | -240.14M | -352.70M | -448.19M | -380.24M | -230.76M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 111.14M | 90.84M | 175.66M | -116.27M | -286.17M | -387.52M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 89.90M | 114.13M | 134.34M | 475.43M | 459.00M | 489.36M |
Virgin Galactic Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
2.93
Price Trends
2.65
Negative
2.74
Negative
3.16
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.01
Positive
42.96
Neutral
12.35
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SPCE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.93 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.62, above the 50-day MA of 2.65, and below the 200-day MA of 3.16, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.35 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SPCE.
Virgin Galactic Holdings Risk Analysis
Virgin Galactic Holdings disclosed 62 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Virgin Galactic Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Virgin Galactic Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
60 Neutral | $14.77B | -13.00 | -69.61% | ― | 25.94% | -86.84% | |
53 Neutral | $4.39B | -4.55 | -38.99% | ― | ― | 11.41% | |
51 Neutral | $310.93M | -7.41 | -82.97% | ― | -9.23% | 64.77% | |
48 Neutral | $248.69M | -0.75 | -105.02% | ― | -76.23% | 63.55% | |
48 Neutral | $695.91M | 82.37 | -26.96% | ― | 12.35% | 32.54% | |
44 Neutral | $303.04M | 0.51 | 230.18% | ― | ― | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
SPCE
Virgin Galactic Holdings
2.47
-1.21
-32.88%
EH
Ehang Holdings
9.27
-8.07
-46.54%
EVTL
Vertical Aerospace
2.38
-3.06
-56.25%
ACHR
Archer Aviation
5.78
-4.82
-45.47%
PL
Planet Labs PBC
42.66
38.97
1056.10%
SIDU
Sidus Space, Inc. Class A
3.85
2.33
152.96%
Virgin Galactic Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Virgin Galactic Redeems Notes Through Unregistered Equity Issuance
Positive
May 18, 2026
Virgin Galactic redeemed $10 million of its 9.80% First Lien Notes due 2028 on May 18, 2026 by issuing 3,768,536 shares of common stock to noteholders, following a notice of redemption issued on April 30, 2026. The transaction, priced using a ten-...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Virgin Galactic Announces Stock-Funded First Lien Note Redemption
Positive
Apr 30, 2026
On April 30, 2026, Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. announced it will redeem up to $10 million of its 9.80% First Lien Notes due 2028 on May 18, 2026, at par plus accrued interest, with the redemption price to be paid in shares of common stock deter...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Virgin Galactic Amends First Lien Notes to Boost Flexibility
Neutral
Apr 24, 2026
On April 24, 2026, Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. entered into a supplemental indenture with subsidiary guarantors and Wilmington Savings Fund Society, FSB, as trustee and collateral agent for its existing 9.80% First Lien Notes due 2028. The tech...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Virgin Galactic Enhances Executive Protections Amid Potential Transitions
Positive
Apr 21, 2026
On April 21, 2026, Virgin Galactic amended employment agreements with its Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer, Douglas Ahrens, and its Chief People Officer and Executive Vice President, Astronaut Operations, Aparna Chitale, enhancing certain sev...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Virgin Galactic Seeks Noteholder Consents for Debt Amendments
Neutral
Apr 20, 2026
On April 20, 2026, Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. began soliciting consents from holders of its 9.80% First Lien Notes due 2028 to approve technical amendments to the indenture governing those notes. The changes aim to facilitate redemptions of th...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Virgin Galactic Announces Board Changes and New Director Nominee
Neutral
Apr 14, 2026
On April 13, 2026, Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. director Luigi Brambilla informed the company that he would not stand for re-election to its Board of Directors at the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, citing personal reasons and no disagreeme...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.