Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $40.81B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 18.67M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.34
• Revenue Growth: 52.42%
• EPS Growth: -1.33%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,100
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Aerospace & Defense
• EPS (TTM): -0.09
• Shares Outstanding: 567,445,430
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 16,555,906
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 18,672,329
• PEG Ratio: 70.97
• Price to Book (P/B): 21.50
• Price to Sales (P/S): 61.51
• P/FCF Ratio: -115.04
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.93
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 62.89
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 182.67
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -220.64
• 1Y Price Target: $89.50
• Price Target Upside: 27.62% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.18
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $890.99M

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $73.00 ▲(4.09% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/27/26

The score is driven mainly by improving operating fundamentals (strong growth and gross-margin expansion) but constrained by persistent losses and significant cash burn. The latest earnings call adds support via strong backlog, major contract momentum, and confident near-term revenue guidance, while technicals and valuation provide limited help given negative momentum signals and the lack of profitability.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth & Margin Expansion

Sustained revenue scaling with meaningful gross-margin expansion signals improving unit economics and stronger pricing or cost discipline across launch and space-systems. These structural improvements increase the odds of eventual operating leverage as R&D and Neutron spend normalize.

Large Backlog & Government Prime Contract

A record backlog anchored by a large SDA prime award provides multi-year revenue visibility and production planning leverage. Being a prime on national-security programs diversifies customers, deepens defense relationships, and can create recurring subsystem and sustainment revenue.

Improving Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Lower leverage and a ~$1.1B liquidity buffer reduce near-term refinancing risk and support continued Neutron development and SDA execution. A stronger capital base increases flexibility to invest in vertical integration and absorb program timing variability.

Negative Factors

Persistent Negative Cash Flow

Material and continuing cash burn means the company remains dependent on external financing or equity issuance to fund operations and Neutron development. This elevates dilution and execution risk if cash outflows persist before sustained positive operating cash flow is achieved.

Neutron Program Execution Risk

A manufacturing defect and subsequent schedule slip increase development cost, delay revenue from a key growth platform, and require process changes (AFP). Neutron execution uncertainty raises the likelihood of further timing slippage, higher CapEx, and stretched cash consumption over a longer horizon.

Lumpy Space Systems Revenue & Subcontractor Risk

Dependence on subcontractor performance and ASC 606 timing produces uneven Space Systems revenue and margins. This reduces predictability of cash flows and can cause quarter-to-quarter margin mix swings, pressuring planning and making backlog-to-revenue conversion uncertain.

Rocket Lab USA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Rocket Lab USA, Inc., a space company, provides launch services and space systems solutions for the space and defense industries. The company provides launch services, spacecraft engineering and design services, spacecraft components, spacecraft manufacturing, and other spacecraft and on-orbit management solutions; and constellation management services, as well as designs and manufactures small and medium-class rockets. It also designs, manufactures, and sells Electron small orbital launch vehicles and the Photon satellite platforms, as well as developing the Neutron 8-ton payload class launch vehicle; conducts remote launch activities; and designs and manufactures a range of components and subsystems for the Photon family of spacecraft and broader merchant spacecraft components. The company serves commercial, aerospace prime contractors, and government customers. The company was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Long Beach, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Rocket Lab generates revenue through multiple streams primarily focused on its launch services and satellite solutions. The main revenue source comes from the launch contracts it secures with commercial, government, and international customers to transport small satellites into orbit using its Electron rocket. Additionally, Rocket Lab derives income from the sales and services associated with its Photon satellite platform, which includes satellite design, manufacturing, and mission management. Significant partnerships, such as collaborations with NASA and various commercial entities, enhance its market presence and contribute to its earnings by securing a steady pipeline of launch contracts and satellite deployments.

Rocket Lab USA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue scaling and improved gross margins support the growth story, and leverage looks more manageable. However, the company remains materially loss-making and cash flow is the key weakness, with deeply negative operating cash flow and worsening free-cash-flow burn in 2025.

Income Statement

Revenue growth has accelerated meaningfully, with sales rising from $35.2M (2020) to $601.8M (2025), including a strong +8.5% growth rate in 2025 versus a modest +0.8% in 2024. Profitability is improving at the gross level (gross margin expanded from negative in 2020–2021 to ~34% in 2025), indicating better unit economics and scale benefits. However, the company remains loss-making with net margins still materially negative (about -33% in 2025) and operating profitability still pressured, suggesting ongoing heavy operating spend and limited near-term earnings power.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears manageable in the latest year, with debt-to-equity improving to ~0.15 in 2025 versus ~1.22 in 2024, and equity rising to ~$1.72B alongside total assets of ~$2.32B. This provides a stronger capital base to support growth and investment. The key weakness is continued negative returns on equity (about -11.5% in 2025), reflecting that profitability has not yet caught up to the balance sheet expansion, and prior-year leverage volatility raises some caution around capital structure changes over time.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains a clear weak spot: operating cash flow is negative across all years shown, including -$165.5M in 2025, and free cash flow is also negative, deteriorating to -$321.8M in 2025. While free cash flow growth is positive in 2025 (+39.0%), the absolute burn increased versus 2024, implying higher investment and/or working-capital needs. A positive offset is that free cash flow is consistently less negative than net income (free cash flow to net income > 1), but the business is still reliant on external funding until operating cash flow turns sustainably positive.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	601.80M	436.21M	244.59M	211.00M	62.24M
Gross Profit	207.18M	116.15M	51.41M	18.99M	-1.89M
EBITDA	-155.47M	-151.80M	-144.93M	-95.20M	-91.20M
Net Income	-198.21M	-190.18M	-182.57M	-135.94M	-117.32M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.32B	1.18B	941.21M	989.12M	980.85M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.02B	418.99M	244.77M	471.79M	690.96M
Total Debt	252.24M	468.42M	176.69M	152.78M	128.43M
Total Liabilities	602.62M	801.89M	386.67M	315.92M	282.40M
Stockholders Equity	1.72B	382.45M	554.54M	673.21M	698.45M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-321.81M	-115.98M	-153.57M	-148.95M	-97.49M
Operating Cash Flow	-165.52M	-48.89M	-98.87M	-106.54M	-71.79M
Investing Cash Flow	-347.40M	-98.33M	12.02M	-346.08M	-92.13M
Financing Cash Flow	1.07B	256.68M	7.37M	2.04M	799.94M

Rocket Lab USA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 70.13
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RKLB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 70.13 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 71.45, below the 50-day MA of 77.35, and above the 200-day MA of 53.38, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.82 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RKLB.

Rocket Lab USA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
LUNR	56 Neutral	$3.70B	-45.29	―	―	8.07%	33.37%
PL	56 Neutral	$8.57B	-17.57	-31.83%	―	16.89%	-4.41%
RKLB	52 Neutral	$40.81B	-186.77	-18.84%	―	52.42%	-1.33%
RDW	51 Neutral	$1.72B	-4.01	-52.00%	―	-0.63%	-163.11%
EVEX	49 Neutral	$1.07B	-6.63	-115.63%	―	―	-33.69%

Rocket Lab USA Corporate Events

Rocket Lab Updates Neutron Rocket After Test Tank Rupture

On January 21, 2026, Rocket Lab reported that qualification testing of the Stage 1 tank for its in-development Neutron medium-lift rocket resulted in a rupture during a hydrostatic pressure trial, an event the company framed as a not-uncommon outcome of pushing hardware beyond operating limits in order to validate structural integrity and safety margins. Rocket Lab said there was no significant damage to test structures or facilities, the next Stage 1 tank is already in production, and the broader Neutron development campaign is continuing while engineers review test data to determine the impact on the rocket’s launch schedule, with investors and customers awaiting further clarity on timing at the company’s upcoming fourth-quarter 2025 earnings update in February.

The most recent analyst rating on (RKLB) stock is a Buy with a $120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rocket Lab USA stock, see the RKLB Stock Forecast page.

Rocket Lab Wins Landmark $816 Million SDA Satellite Contract

On December 19, 2025, Rocket Lab announced it had secured an $816 million prime contract from the U.S. Space Development Agency to design, manufacture, operate and sustain 18 missile-defense satellites for the Tracking Layer Tranche 3 constellation, with work starting immediately and final satellite delivery expected in 2029. The award, which follows a prior $515 million SDA contract and can expand toward $1 billion when including additional subsystem sales to other Tranche 3 primes, marks Rocket Lab’s largest contract to date and reinforces its emergence as a vertically integrated, disruptive prime contractor in U.S. national security space, challenging legacy aerospace players and deepening its role in the U.S. Space Force’s missile warning and tracking architecture.

The most recent analyst rating on (RKLB) stock is a Hold with a $49.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rocket Lab USA stock, see the RKLB Stock Forecast page.