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Rocket Lab USA
(NASDAQ:RKLB)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$75.00
▲(17.35% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/17/26
The score is driven primarily by improving operating fundamentals and a materially strengthened balance sheet, but is held back by substantial ongoing cash burn and continued losses. Technicals are mixed (neutral RSI but negative MACD and below key moving averages), while valuation metrics are unfavorable due to negative earnings and no dividend. The latest earnings call was a net positive on bookings, backlog and liquidity, though near-term margins and free-cash-flow pressure remain meaningful risks.
Positive Factors
Large backlog and contract momentum
The large backlog and recent contract wins provide multi-period revenue visibility across launch and Space Systems. With about 45.5% expected to convert within 12 months, customer demand supports continued scaling and reduces reliance on individual missions.
Negative Factors
Substantial ongoing cash burn
Persistent cash consumption means Rocket Lab is not yet self-funding operations and growth investments. Neutron development, manufacturing scale-up and infrastructure spending could keep funding needs elevated, increasing dependence on its cash balance and external capital.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Large backlog and contract momentum
The large backlog and recent contract wins provide multi-period revenue visibility across launch and Space Systems. With about 45.5% expected to convert within 12 months, customer demand supports continued scaling and reduces reliance on individual missions.
Read all positive factors
Rocket Lab USA Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Type
Shows how revenue is generated from different products or services, highlighting the company's diversification and potential areas of growth.
Shows how revenue is generated from different products or services, highlighting the company's diversification and potential areas of growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyRocket Lab USA (RKLB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$43.42B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)25.60M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.82
Revenue Growth52.53%
EPS Growth38.89%
CountryUS
Employees2,100
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.27
Shares Outstanding598,350,460
10 Day Avg. Volume19,438,632
30 Day Avg. Volume25,597,815
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio71.65
Price to Book (P/B)21.50
Price to Sales (P/S)61.51
P/FCF Ratio-115.04
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$110.93Price Target Upside73.58% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.27
Revenue Forecast (FY)$954.17M
Rocket Lab USA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) is a space company that provides launch and space systems services for government and commercial customers. It operates primarily through (1) launch services—delivering small satellites to orbit using its Electron rocke...
How the Company Makes Money
Rocket Lab makes money primarily by selling space access and space hardware/services to customers across government and commercial markets.
1) Launch Services revenue
- Mission contracts: Rocket Lab earns revenue by contracting with customers to ...
Rocket Lab USA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 10, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call conveyed strong commercial momentum and operational execution: record revenue, sizable bookings and backlog, margin outperformance in Q2, robust liquidity and meaningful progress on Neutron development and strategic M&A (Mynaric, Motiv, pending Iridium). Offsetting risks include elevated cash burn and negative free cash flow driven by Neutron tail production and R&D, a sequential decline in Launch Services revenue due to accounting mix, margin pressure from recent acquisitions and schedule risk for Neutron's first flight. On balance, the positive commercial wins, backlog, margin beats and cash position outweigh the near-term cash and schedule pressures.Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Strong Growth
Q2 revenue of $234.0M, a record quarter: +62% year-over-year and +16.8% sequentially; revenue was within prior guidance and represented broad contribution from both Launch and Space Systems segments.
Negative Updates
Launch Services Revenue Decline
Launch Services revenue was $44.6M in Q2, down 30% sequentially despite a similar number of launches; decline primarily due to a revenue-recognition mix shift (overtime accounting for HASTE vs point-in-time for Electron).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue and Strong Growth
Q2 revenue of $234.0M, a record quarter: +62% year-over-year and +16.8% sequentially; revenue was within prior guidance and represented broad contribution from both Launch and Space Systems segments.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For Q3 the company guided revenue of $250–$265 million (midpoint ≈ +10% QoQ), GAAP gross margin of 29–31% and non‑GAAP gross margin of 35–37%, GAAP operating expenses of $143–$149 million (non‑GAAP $121–$127M), net interest income of ~$21 million, an adjusted EBITDA loss of $17–$23 million, basic weighted‑average shares of ~641 million, and continued elevated negative non‑GAAP free cash flow (excluding financing). Management also said ~45.5% of the current ~$2.36 billion backlog is expected to convert to revenue within 12 months, capex will remain elevated as Neutron development continues (Q2 capex was $26M), and liquidity was roughly $2.4 billion after $1.08 billion raised via the ATM.Rocket Lab USA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
76
Positive
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 769.15M | 601.80M | 436.21M | 244.59M | 211.00M | 62.24M |
| Gross Profit | 286.62M | 207.18M | 116.15M | 51.41M | 18.99M | -1.89M |
| EBITDA | -122.15M | -155.47M | -151.80M | -144.93M | -95.20M | -107.86M |
| Net Income | -165.46M | -198.21M | -190.18M | -182.57M | -135.94M | -117.32M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.19B | 2.32B | 1.18B | 941.21M | 989.12M | 980.85M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.30B | 1.02B | 418.99M | 244.77M | 471.79M | 690.96M |
| Total Debt | 133.69M | 253.96M | 468.42M | 176.69M | 152.78M | 128.43M |
| Total Liabilities | 695.22M | 602.62M | 801.89M | 386.67M | 315.92M | 282.40M |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.49B | 1.72B | 382.45M | 554.54M | 673.21M | 698.45M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -398.35M | -321.81M | -115.98M | -153.57M | -148.95M | -97.49M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -249.68M | -165.52M | -48.89M | -98.87M | -106.54M | -71.79M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -395.98M | -347.40M | -98.33M | 12.02M | -346.08M | -92.13M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.84B | 1.07B | 256.68M | 7.37M | 2.04M | 799.94M |
Rocket Lab USA Technical Analysis
Negative
63.91
Price Trends
82.05
Negative
90.52
Negative
78.73
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.89
Negative
43.16
Neutral
10.36
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RKLB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 63.91 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 74.07, below the 50-day MA of 82.05, and below the 200-day MA of 78.73, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.89 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.36 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RKLB.
Rocket Lab USA Risk Analysis
Rocket Lab USA disclosed 72 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Rocket Lab USA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Rocket Lab USA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
57 Neutral | $43.42B | -262.08 | -7.56% | ― | 52.53% | 38.89% | |
53 Neutral | $3.00B | -8.23 | -20.75% | ― | 63.10% | 55.06% | |
52 Neutral | $7.94B | -19.48 | -105.29% | ― | 34.15% | -216.84% | |
50 Neutral | $916.52M | -4.24 | -221.18% | ― | ― | 1.65% | |
50 Neutral | $4.19B | -19.50 | 26.62% | ― | 116.89% | 64.21% |
* Industrials Sector Average
RKLB
Rocket Lab USA
72.57
25.35
53.68%
EVEX
Eve Holding
2.63
-1.43
-35.22%
RDW
Redwire
12.02
3.08
34.45%
PL
Planet Labs PBC
22.29
15.23
215.72%
LUNR
Intuitive Machines
18.32
9.46
106.77%
Rocket Lab USA Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rocket Lab Launches New ATM to Support Iridium Deal
Neutral
Aug 13, 2026
On August 13, 2026, Rocket Lab Corporation announced it had replaced its May 20, 2026 equity distribution agreement with a new at-the-market equity program with Deutsche Bank Securities and Wells Fargo Securities, allowing sales of up to $1.94 bil...
Financial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rocket Lab Advances Iridium Acquisition with Regulatory Filings
Positive
Aug 13, 2026
On June 28, 2026, Rocket Lab USA agreed to acquire satellite operator Iridium Communications via a two-step merger structure that will ultimately make Iridium an indirect wholly owned subsidiary. Under the Agreement and Plan of Merger, an initial ...
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Rocket Lab to Acquire Iridium in Strategic Merger
Positive
Jun 29, 2026
On June 28, 2026, Rocket Lab entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Iridium in a cash-and-stock deal valuing the satellite operator at about $8.0 billion, or $54 per share, with Iridium shareholders to receive $27 in cash plus Rocket Lab s...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.