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Rocket Lab USA (RKLB)
NASDAQ:RKLB
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Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) AI Stock Analysis

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RKLB

Rocket Lab USA

(NASDAQ:RKLB)

Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$46.00
▲(0.35% Upside)
Rocket Lab's overall stock score reflects strong revenue growth and strategic acquisitions, which are positive indicators for future growth. However, significant challenges remain in terms of profitability, cash flow, and valuation. The technical analysis suggests moderate bullish momentum, but the stock's high P/E ratio and lack of dividend yield indicate potential overvaluation. Investors should weigh the company's growth prospects against its financial challenges.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Rocket Lab reported a 36% year-over-year revenue growth, surpassing expectations.
International Market Expansion
Signs of international market penetration are evident as Rocket Lab was selected to launch a mission for the European Space Agency, indicating potential growth in international markets.
Market Position and Competitiveness
The global demand surge in New Space tech and desperate need for an alternative to SpaceX opens the door for RKLB to ascend to its much higher aspirations.
Negative Factors
Launch Delays
There are risks associated with the Neutron launch, as another delay into 2026 is not entirely out of the realm of possibility.
Valuation Concerns
The valuation of Rocket Lab is currently high, trading at a near 30x NTM EV/Sales multiple, which warrants caution compared to its peers.

Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Rocket Lab USA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionRocket Lab USA, Inc., a space company, provides launch services and space systems solutions for the space and defense industries. The company provides launch services, spacecraft engineering and design services, spacecraft components, spacecraft manufacturing, and other spacecraft and on-orbit management solutions; and constellation management services, as well as designs and manufactures small and medium-class rockets. It also designs, manufactures, and sells Electron small orbital launch vehicles and the Photon satellite platforms, as well as developing the Neutron 8-ton payload class launch vehicle; conducts remote launch activities; and designs and manufactures a range of components and subsystems for the Photon family of spacecraft and broader merchant spacecraft components. The company serves commercial, aerospace prime contractors, and government customers. The company was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Long Beach, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyRocket Lab generates revenue through multiple streams primarily focused on its launch services and satellite solutions. The main revenue source comes from the launch contracts it secures with commercial, government, and international customers to transport small satellites into orbit using its Electron rocket. Additionally, Rocket Lab derives income from the sales and services associated with its Photon satellite platform, which includes satellite design, manufacturing, and mission management. Significant partnerships, such as collaborations with NASA and various commercial entities, enhance its market presence and contribute to its earnings by securing a steady pipeline of launch contracts and satellite deployments.

Rocket Lab USA Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue Value
Revenue Value
Indicates the total revenue generated, providing a snapshot of the company's overall financial health and market position.
Chart InsightsRocket Lab's revenue trajectory reveals fluctuations with a recent decline, but the earnings call highlights a robust 32% year-over-year increase in Q1 2025, driven by strong demand for Electron and HASTE missions. Despite a sequential revenue dip and negative cash flow, the company's strategic focus on the Neutron launch vehicle and new product innovations positions it well for future growth. The anticipated revenue boost in Q2 2025 and selection for the DOD's NSSL program underscore Rocket Lab's competitive edge in the space industry.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Rocket Lab USA Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 18, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlights Rocket Lab's record revenue, strong segment performance, strategic acquisitions, and robust backlog. However, the company faces challenges with elevated cash consumption, higher operating expenses, and risks in the Neutron development timeline. Overall, the positive achievements and growth prospects outweigh the challenges.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Growth
Rocket Lab reported a record revenue of $144.5 million for Q2 2025, which is a 36% increase compared to last year and exceeded the high end of their prior guidance.
Launch and Space Systems Segment Performance
Space Systems segment delivered $97.9 million, reflecting a 12.5% sequential increase. Launch Services segment revenue was $6.6 million, a 31.1% quarter-on-quarter increase.
Strategic Acquisition and Expansion
Rocket Lab is finalizing the acquisition of Geost, expanding their prime contractor status and enhancing their capabilities in missile tracking satellites for national security missions.
Strong Backlog and Future Prospects
The company ended Q2 2025 with approximately $1 billion in total backlog, with a strong pipeline of opportunities, including a potential large SDA Tranche 3 contract.
Neutron and Electron Launch Progress
Neutron's infrastructure is substantially complete, and Electron completed its 69th launch. They are on track for 20 or more launches by the year's end.
Negative Updates
Elevated Cash Consumption
The company expects continued elevated cash consumption due to Neutron development, longer lead procurement for SDA, and scaling production.
Operating Expenses Above Guidance
GAAP operating expenses for Q2 2025 were $106 million, above the guidance range due to increased R&D and prototyping costs for the Neutron program.
Risk in Neutron Development Timeline
There are risks to retire in the Neutron development, such as propulsion and full integration of Stage 1 testing, which could affect the timeline.
Company Guidance
During the Rocket Lab Corporation Q2 2025 earnings call, the company reported record revenue of $144.5 million, a 36% increase compared to the previous year, exceeding their guidance range. The GAAP gross margin also surpassed expectations at 32.1%, with a non-GAAP gross margin of 36.9%. The company completed 69 launches with the Electron rocket and plans for 20 or more launches by the end of the year. Rocket Lab is progressing on its Neutron rocket, with launch complex 3 set for an opening on August 28, 2025. The company is also finalizing the acquisition of Geost, as it positions itself for large-scale U.S. defense contracts, including the $175 billion Golden Dome program. Operating expenses rose due to Neutron development, with GAAP operating expenses at $106 million and non-GAAP at $86.9 million. Cash and equivalents stood at $754 million, bolstered by a recent equity offering. Revenue guidance for Q3 2025 is projected between $145 million and $155 million, with anticipated gross margin improvements.

Rocket Lab USA Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Rocket Lab USA is experiencing strong revenue growth, but profitability and cash flow remain significant challenges. The company has managed to improve its leverage position, but ongoing losses are impacting return on equity and cash flow metrics. Continued focus on improving operational efficiency and profitability will be crucial for future financial health.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Rocket Lab USA shows a positive revenue growth trend, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 8.21%. However, the company is facing challenges in profitability, as indicated by negative net profit margins (-45.87%) and EBIT margins (-43.70%). The gross profit margin has improved to 29.04% in the TTM, showing some operational efficiency gains. Overall, while revenue is growing, profitability remains a significant concern.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.65 in the TTM, indicating better leverage management compared to previous years. However, the return on equity remains negative (-48.14%), reflecting ongoing losses. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting a solid capital structure. While leverage is under control, the negative ROE highlights profitability issues.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Rocket Lab USA's cash flow situation is challenging, with negative operating cash flow and free cash flow. Although there is a positive free cash flow growth rate of 15.21% in the TTM, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow issues. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.84 suggests some ability to cover net losses, but overall cash flow health is weak.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue504.26M436.21M244.59M211.00M62.24M35.16M
Gross Profit146.45M116.15M51.41M18.99M-1.89M-11.82M
EBITDA-185.68M-151.80M-144.93M-95.20M-91.20M-45.61M
Net Income-231.31M-190.18M-182.57M-135.94M-117.32M-55.01M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.55B1.18B941.21M989.12M980.85M187.87M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments688.14M418.99M244.77M471.79M690.96M52.79M
Total Debt498.13M468.42M176.69M152.78M128.43M27.30M
Total Liabilities864.75M801.89M386.67M315.92M282.40M354.58M
Stockholders Equity688.49M382.45M554.54M673.21M698.45M-166.71M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-204.06M-115.98M-153.57M-148.95M-97.49M-52.88M
Operating Cash Flow-110.77M-48.89M-98.87M-106.54M-71.79M-27.76M
Investing Cash Flow-71.25M-98.33M12.02M-346.08M-92.13M-37.33M
Financing Cash Flow405.79M256.68M7.37M2.04M799.94M21.48M

Rocket Lab USA Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price45.84
Price Trends
50DMA
43.68
Positive
100DMA
34.28
Positive
200DMA
28.89
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.79
Positive
RSI
52.83
Neutral
STOCH
31.95
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RKLB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 45.84 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 44.77, above the 50-day MA of 43.68, and above the 200-day MA of 28.89, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.79 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RKLB.

Rocket Lab USA Risk Analysis

Rocket Lab USA disclosed 61 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Rocket Lab USA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Rocket Lab USA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
73
Outperform
$1.36B34.605.86%2.42%72.72%
73
Outperform
$1.96B-22.54%9.52%24.27%
64
Neutral
$10.73B15.747.64%2.01%2.76%-15.10%
55
Neutral
$20.74B-40.45%54.36%-26.35%
43
Neutral
$1.15B-320.52%-30.78%
42
Neutral
$1.50B25.79%43.23%-3174.53%
40
Underperform
$1.18B-45.35%-10.50%-230.68%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
RKLB
Rocket Lab USA
45.84
40.03
688.98%
DCO
Ducommun
90.45
29.28
47.87%
EVEX
Eve Holding
3.92
1.25
46.82%
RDW
Redwire
8.32
2.60
45.45%
PL
Planet Labs PBC
6.53
4.75
266.85%
LUNR
Intuitive Machines
8.49
3.45
68.45%

Rocket Lab USA Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Rocket Lab USA Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting
Neutral
Aug 29, 2025

On August 25, 2025, Rocket Lab USA‘s Compensation Committee adopted a Senior Executive Cash Incentive Bonus Plan, which ties cash bonuses to the achievement of specific performance targets. This plan aims to align executive performance with corporate goals and operational success. Additionally, on August 27, 2025, Rocket Lab held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where four proposals were considered. Notably, three directors were elected, and the appointment of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent auditor was ratified. However, a proposed amendment to eliminate a pass-through voting provision was not approved.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Rocket Lab USA Acquires GEOST for $275 Million
Positive
Aug 12, 2025

On August 12, 2025, Rocket Lab completed its acquisition of GEOST, a developer of electro-optical and infrared sensor systems for national security space missions, for $275 million. This acquisition enhances Rocket Lab’s capabilities in national security by integrating GEOST’s technologies, supporting initiatives like the Golden Dome for America and the Space Development Agency’s Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture, and expanding its footprint in North America.

Shareholder Meetings
Rocket Lab USA Announces 2025 Annual Meeting Date
Neutral
Jun 9, 2025

Rocket Lab USA has announced that its 2025 annual meeting of stockholders will be held on August 27, 2025, a change of more than 30 days from the previous year’s meeting. Stockholders must submit proposals by June 19, 2025, to be included in the proxy materials, adhering to the company’s bylaws and SEC rules. This change in meeting date requires stockholders to adjust their proposal submission timelines, impacting their participation in the company’s governance.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 19, 2025