Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $41.42B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 21.80M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.16
• Revenue Growth: 52.42%
• EPS Growth: -1.33%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,100
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Aerospace & Defense
• EPS (TTM): -0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 534,156,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 30,288,347
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 21,795,417
• PEG Ratio: 0.00
• Price to Book (P/B): 33.03
• Price to Sales (P/S): 28.96
• P/FCF Ratio: -108.91
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.60
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 44.85
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 141.50
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -130.63
• 1Y Price Target: $68.25
• Price Target Upside: -11.99% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.38
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $599.37M

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: $73.00 ▼(-5.87% Downside)

Rocket Lab's overall stock score reflects strong revenue growth and strategic contract wins, which are offset by significant profitability challenges and valuation concerns. The company's technical indicators suggest potential overbought conditions, while the earnings call and corporate events highlight both opportunities and risks. Investors should be cautious of the high operational costs and cash flow issues despite the positive outlook.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The strong revenue growth indicates increasing demand for Rocket Lab's services and successful market penetration, supporting long-term business expansion.

Strategic Contract Wins

Securing large contracts with government agencies enhances Rocket Lab's credibility and ensures a steady revenue stream, reinforcing its market position.

Space Systems Segment Growth

Growth in the Space Systems segment demonstrates Rocket Lab's expanding capabilities and diversification, reducing reliance on launch services alone.

Negative Factors

Profitability Challenges

Persistent profitability issues can hinder Rocket Lab's ability to reinvest in growth and innovation, affecting long-term financial health.

High Cash Usage

High cash usage reflects ongoing investments but can strain financial resources, potentially limiting flexibility for future strategic initiatives.

Increased Operating Expenses

Rising operating expenses can pressure margins and profitability, challenging Rocket Lab's ability to achieve sustainable financial performance.

Rocket Lab USA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Rocket Lab USA, Inc. is a prominent aerospace manufacturer and small satellite launch service provider based in Long Beach, California. The company specializes in providing affordable and reliable launch services for small satellites, primarily through its Electron rocket, which is designed to carry payloads into low Earth orbit. Rocket Lab also develops the Photon satellite platform and offers various satellite solutions and services, positioning itself as a key player in the expanding space industry.

How the Company Makes Money

Rocket Lab generates revenue through multiple streams primarily focused on its launch services and satellite solutions. The main revenue source comes from the launch contracts it secures with commercial, government, and international customers to transport small satellites into orbit using its Electron rocket. Additionally, Rocket Lab derives income from the sales and services associated with its Photon satellite platform, which includes satellite design, manufacturing, and mission management. Significant partnerships, such as collaborations with NASA and various commercial entities, enhance its market presence and contribute to its earnings by securing a steady pipeline of launch contracts and satellite deployments.

Rocket Lab USA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Rocket Lab USA is experiencing growth in revenue, but profitability and cash flow remain significant challenges. The company has improved its gross profit margin, yet it continues to face high operational costs and negative net income. The balance sheet shows a reasonable debt level, but the negative return on equity is concerning. Cash flow issues persist despite some growth in free cash flow, indicating the need for improved cash management strategies.

Income Statement

Rocket Lab USA has shown a positive revenue growth rate of 9.97% in the TTM, indicating an upward trajectory in sales. However, the company is struggling with profitability, as evidenced by negative net profit and EBIT margins. The gross profit margin has improved to 29.04%, but the net profit margin remains deeply negative at -45.87%, highlighting ongoing challenges in cost management and operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.72, suggesting manageable leverage levels. However, the return on equity is negative at -48.14%, reflecting the company's inability to generate profits from shareholders' equity. The equity ratio is relatively stable, indicating a solid asset base, but the negative ROE is a concern for investors.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a challenging situation with negative operating cash flow and free cash flow. Although there is a positive free cash flow growth rate of 13.48%, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow issues. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.84, suggesting that while free cash flow exceeds net income, the overall cash position remains weak.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	554.53M	436.21M	244.59M	211.00M	62.24M	35.16M
Gross Profit	175.77M	116.15M	51.41M	18.99M	-1.89M	-11.82M
EBITDA	-190.39M	-151.80M	-144.93M	-95.20M	-91.20M	-45.61M
Net Income	-197.63M	-190.18M	-182.57M	-135.94M	-117.32M	-55.01M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.22B	1.18B	941.21M	989.12M	980.85M	187.87M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	976.74M	418.99M	244.77M	471.79M	690.96M	52.79M
Total Debt	516.62M	468.42M	176.69M	152.78M	128.43M	27.30M
Total Liabilities	940.41M	801.89M	386.67M	315.92M	282.40M	354.58M
Stockholders Equity	1.28B	382.45M	554.54M	673.21M	698.45M	-166.71M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-231.56M	-115.98M	-153.57M	-148.95M	-97.49M	-52.88M
Operating Cash Flow	-103.38M	-48.89M	-98.87M	-106.54M	-71.79M	-27.76M
Investing Cash Flow	-261.18M	-98.33M	12.02M	-346.08M	-92.13M	-37.33M
Financing Cash Flow	881.92M	256.68M	7.37M	2.04M	799.94M	21.48M

Rocket Lab USA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 77.55
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RKLB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 77.55 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 54.48, above the 50-day MA of 55.45, and above the 200-day MA of 40.06, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 5.65 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.05 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 96.27 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RKLB.

Rocket Lab USA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
RKLB	57 Neutral	$41.42B	-199.07	-23.24%	―	52.42%	-1.33%
PL	57 Neutral	$6.46B	-48.63	-31.83%	―	16.89%	-4.41%
RDW	52 Neutral	$1.41B	-2.52	-50.08%	―	-0.63%	-163.11%
LUNR	52 Neutral	$3.01B	-8.84	―	―	8.07%	33.37%
EVEX	43 Neutral	$1.67B	-6.82	-115.63%	―	―	-33.69%

Rocket Lab USA Corporate Events

Rocket Lab Wins Landmark $816 Million SDA Satellite Contract

On December 19, 2025, Rocket Lab announced it had secured an $816 million prime contract from the U.S. Space Development Agency to design, manufacture, operate and sustain 18 missile-defense satellites for the Tracking Layer Tranche 3 constellation, with work starting immediately and final satellite delivery expected in 2029. The award, which follows a prior $515 million SDA contract and can expand toward $1 billion when including additional subsystem sales to other Tranche 3 primes, marks Rocket Lab’s largest contract to date and reinforces its emergence as a vertically integrated, disruptive prime contractor in U.S. national security space, challenging legacy aerospace players and deepening its role in the U.S. Space Force’s missile warning and tracking architecture.

Rocket Lab Reports Record Q3 2025 Revenue Growth

Rocket Lab announced its third-quarter 2025 financial results, reporting a record quarterly revenue of $155 million, marking a 48% year-on-year growth. The company highlighted significant achievements including securing 17 Electron launch contracts, launching two HASTE missions, and acquiring Geost to enhance its capabilities in U.S. national security. Rocket Lab also opened Launch Complex 3 for its Neutron rocket and maintains a strong financial position with over $1 billion in liquidity, setting the stage for continued growth and strategic acquisitions.