Rocket Lab USA (RKLB)
NASDAQ:RKLB
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Rocket Lab USA
(NASDAQ:RKLB)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$87.00
▲(2.59% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/15/26
The score is held back mainly by persistent losses and substantial negative operating/free cash flow despite accelerating revenue and improving gross margins. Technicals are moderately supportive with the stock above key moving averages, but momentum is mixed. Valuation remains unattractive on earnings (negative P/E) with no dividend, while the earnings call adds upside from strong backlog and guidance but also highlights execution and cash-burn risk tied to Neutron delays.
Positive Factors
Backlog & Government Demand
A record backlog (~$1.85B) anchored by large SDA awards provides durable revenue visibility and significant government demand. Management estimates ~37% of backlog converts in 12 months, enabling multi-quarter planning, capacity scaling and reduced short-term revenue volatility versus spot demand.
Negative Factors
Negative Cash Flow & Burn
Persistent negative operating cash flow and large FCF burn (-$321.8M in 2025) mean Rocket Lab remains reliant on external funding while investing in Neutron and SDA. Even with ~$1.1B liquidity, sustained negative cash flow increases financing, dilution and execution risk until operating cash generation turns reliably positive.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Backlog & Government Demand
A record backlog (~$1.85B) anchored by large SDA awards provides durable revenue visibility and significant government demand. Management estimates ~37% of backlog converts in 12 months, enabling multi-quarter planning, capacity scaling and reduced short-term revenue volatility versus spot demand.
Read all positive factors
Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$45.88B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)23.34M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.39
Revenue Growth37.96%
EPS Growth1.96%
CountryUS
Employees2,100
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.09
Shares Outstanding575,767,300
10 Day Avg. Volume21,559,342
30 Day Avg. Volume23,343,638
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio70.97
Price to Book (P/B)21.50
Price to Sales (P/S)61.51
P/FCF Ratio-115.04
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.99
Enterprise Value/Revenue75.28
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit218.66
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-264.12
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$89.00Price Target Upside4.95% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.18
Revenue Forecast (FY)$870.60M
Rocket Lab USA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Rocket Lab USA, Inc., a space company, provides launch services and space systems solutions for the space and defense industries. The company provides launch services, spacecraft engineering and design services, spacecraft components, spacecraft m...
How the Company Makes Money
Rocket Lab primarily makes money through two operating segments: (1) Launch Services and (2) Space Systems. Launch Services revenue is generated by selling dedicated and rideshare launch missions—primarily on the Electron rocket—where customers pa...
Rocket Lab USA Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Type
Shows how revenue is generated from different products or services, highlighting the company's diversification and potential areas of growth.
Shows how revenue is generated from different products or services, highlighting the company's diversification and potential areas of growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyRocket Lab USA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong commercial and financial momentum — record revenue, record backlog, margin expansion, market leadership in small launch, a material SDA prime contract ($816M), successful high-profile missions (ESCAPADE), strategic acquisitions and continued Neutron hardware qualification progress. Counterbalancing these positives were meaningful near-term program risks and cash consumption: a Stage 1 tank rupture on Neutron that pushed the first launch target to Q4 2026, elevated R&D and CapEx for Neutron, negative operating/free cash flow in Q4, and some lumpy Space Systems revenue tied to subcontractor performance and ASC 606 timing. Overall the business appears to be scaling with solid liquidity (~$1.1B) and transformational opportunities (SDA, vertical integration, new solar tech), while managing expected execution and cash-flow challenges as Neutron development continues.Positive Updates
Record Annual and Quarterly Revenue
Full-year 2025 revenue of $602.0M, representing 38% year-over-year growth; Q4 2025 revenue of $180.0M, up 36% year-over-year and up 16% sequentially.
Negative Updates
Neutron Stage 1 Tank Rupture and Schedule Impact
A Stage 1 tank ruptured during a hydrostatic test due to a manufacturing defect in a hand-laid joint; management moved to automated fiber placement (AFP) production to eliminate the root cause. As a result Neutron's first launch is now targeted for Q4 2026 (slip) and program resources were reallocated to resolve the issue.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Annual and Quarterly Revenue
Full-year 2025 revenue of $602.0M, representing 38% year-over-year growth; Q4 2025 revenue of $180.0M, up 36% year-over-year and up 16% sequentially.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Rocket Lab guided Q1 2026 revenue of $185–$200M (midpoint ~7% QoQ growth, +57% YoY), GAAP gross margin of 34–36% and non‑GAAP gross margin of ~39–41% (modest sequential decline), GAAP operating expenses of $120–$126M and non‑GAAP operating expenses of $106–$112M, GAAP and non‑GAAP net interest income of ~$8M, adjusted EBITDA loss of $21–$27M, and basic weighted average shares of ~605M (including ~46M convertible preferred; ~23M shares converted so far with ~7.5M of the original convertible note shares remaining); management expects Q1 to mark peak Neutron R&D spending, continued negative non‑GAAP free cash flow driven by Neutron development, and noted that ~37% of current backlog is expected to convert to revenue within 12 months.Rocket Lab USA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 601.80M | 436.21M | 244.59M | 211.00M | 62.24M |
| Gross Profit | 207.18M | 116.15M | 51.41M | 18.99M | -1.89M |
| EBITDA | -155.47M | -151.80M | -144.93M | -95.20M | -91.20M |
| Net Income | -198.21M | -190.18M | -182.57M | -135.94M | -117.32M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.32B | 1.18B | 941.21M | 989.12M | 980.85M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.02B | 418.99M | 244.77M | 471.79M | 690.96M |
| Total Debt | 253.96M | 468.42M | 176.69M | 152.78M | 128.43M |
| Total Liabilities | 602.62M | 801.89M | 386.67M | 315.92M | 282.40M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.72B | 382.45M | 554.54M | 673.21M | 698.45M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -321.81M | -115.98M | -153.57M | -148.95M | -97.49M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -165.52M | -48.89M | -98.87M | -106.54M | -71.79M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -347.40M | -98.33M | 12.02M | -346.08M | -92.13M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.07B | 256.68M | 7.37M | 2.04M | 799.94M |
Rocket Lab USA Technical Analysis
Positive
84.80
Price Trends
70.10
Positive
69.85
Positive
59.96
Positive
Market Momentum
2.22
Negative
66.88
Neutral
92.90
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RKLB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 84.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 68.90, above the 50-day MA of 70.10, and above the 200-day MA of 59.96, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.90 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RKLB.
Rocket Lab USA Risk Analysis
Rocket Lab USA disclosed 62 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Rocket Lab USA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Rocket Lab USA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | $12.27B | -31.13 | -69.61% | ― | 25.94% | -86.84% | |
59 Neutral | $5.53B | -23.25 | 23.46% | ― | -7.71% | 84.50% | |
56 Neutral | $1.93B | -4.01 | -29.10% | ― | 10.29% | -1.63% | |
55 Neutral | $45.88B | -186.77 | -19.23% | ― | 37.96% | 1.96% | |
47 Neutral | $964.80M | -5.44 | -225.72% | ― | ― | -45.97% |
* Industrials Sector Average
RKLB
Rocket Lab USA
79.68
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251.48%
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Rocket Lab USA Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Rocket Lab Completes Mynaric Acquisition, Expands European Presence
Positive
Apr 14, 2026
On April 14, 2026, Rocket Lab Corporation completed its previously announced acquisition of Mynaric AG, a German provider of laser optical communications terminals for air, space and mobile applications, in a deal valued at $155.3 million paid thr...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Rocket Lab CEO Slashes Pay, Forfeits Equity Awards
Positive
Mar 30, 2026
On March 30, 2026, Rocket Lab Corporation announced that Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Sir Peter Beck has amended his employment terms, cutting his annual base salary to $1.00 or the New Zealand statutory minimum and relinquishing any expec...
Regulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Rocket Lab Sets Deadlines for 2026 Shareholder Proposals
Neutral
Mar 12, 2026
Rocket Lab USA plans to hold its 2026 annual meeting of stockholders on May 20, 2026, a date that falls more than 30 days earlier than the anniversary of its 2025 annual meeting. In connection with this change, the company has set March 22, 2026, ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.