Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $42.77B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 24.07M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.18
• Revenue Growth: 52.42%
• EPS Growth: -1.33%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,100
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Aerospace & Defense
• EPS (TTM): -0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 534,156,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 20,820,917
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 24,072,352
• PEG Ratio: 0.00
• Price to Book (P/B): 33.03
• Price to Sales (P/S): 28.96
• P/FCF Ratio: -108.91
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.01
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 77.76
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 245.32
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -226.48
• 1Y Price Target: $86.89
• Price Target Upside: 8.52% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.18
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $894.52M

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $90.00 ▲(12.40% Upside)

The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (losses and negative operating/free cash flow) and valuation risk tied to unprofitability, partly offset by strong technical momentum and a constructive earnings outlook supported by record revenue, a sizable backlog, and improving gross margins.

Positive Factors

Large Government Backlog & SDA Contract

The $816M SDA award plus a $1.1B backlog provide multiyear revenue visibility and anchor recurring national security work. This strengthens Rocket Lab's standing as a prime contractor, supports predictable manufacturing scale‑up, and reduces near‑term demand volatility risk.

Diversified Space Systems Growth

Robust Space Systems growth shifts revenue mix toward hardware and mission services that are less tied to launch cadence. Product and contract engineering sales tend to be higher value and repeatable, improving revenue stability and enabling cross‑sell into government/commercial programs.

Record Revenue & Improving Gross Margins

Strong top‑line growth with materially higher gross margins indicates improving unit economics across launches and hardware. Durable margin expansion suggests the business can scale manufacturing and operations more profitably as backlog converts, supporting long‑term cash generation potential.

Negative Factors

Persistently Negative Profitability

Deep negative net margins and a substantially negative ROE show the company is not yet converting revenue into shareholder returns. Sustained unprofitability undermines reinvestment capacity and requires significant margin improvement to justify continued capital deployment and dilution risks.

Negative Operating & Free Cash Flow

Ongoing operating and free cash flow deficits reflect heavy investment in Neutron and infrastructure. Continued cash burn raises reliance on external financing or liquidity draws, increasing funding risk and potentially constraining strategic flexibility over the medium term.

Rising Opex and Neutron Execution Risk

Elevated operating expenses driven by Neutron development plus a delayed first launch extend the timeline to revenue realization. Higher R&D and testing costs increase execution and cost‑overrun risk, pressuring margins and requiring sustained cash to reach commercial Neutron scale.

Rocket Lab USA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Rocket Lab USA, Inc., a space company, provides launch services and space systems solutions for the space and defense industries. The company provides launch services, spacecraft engineering and design services, spacecraft components, spacecraft manufacturing, and other spacecraft and on-orbit management solutions; and constellation management services, as well as designs and manufactures small and medium-class rockets. It also designs, manufactures, and sells Electron small orbital launch vehicles and the Photon satellite platforms, as well as developing the Neutron 8-ton payload class launch vehicle; conducts remote launch activities; and designs and manufactures a range of components and subsystems for the Photon family of spacecraft and broader merchant spacecraft components. The company serves commercial, aerospace prime contractors, and government customers. The company was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Long Beach, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Rocket Lab generates revenue through multiple streams primarily focused on its launch services and satellite solutions. The main revenue source comes from the launch contracts it secures with commercial, government, and international customers to transport small satellites into orbit using its Electron rocket. Additionally, Rocket Lab derives income from the sales and services associated with its Photon satellite platform, which includes satellite design, manufacturing, and mission management. Significant partnerships, such as collaborations with NASA and various commercial entities, enhance its market presence and contribute to its earnings by securing a steady pipeline of launch contracts and satellite deployments.

Rocket Lab USA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue is growing (TTM +9.97%) and gross margin improved (29.04%), but profitability remains weak with deeply negative net margin (-45.87%) and negative ROE (-48.14%). Cash generation is still challenging with negative operating and free cash flow despite some free cash flow growth.

Income Statement

Rocket Lab USA has shown a positive revenue growth rate of 9.97% in the TTM, indicating an upward trajectory in sales. However, the company is struggling with profitability, as evidenced by negative net profit and EBIT margins. The gross profit margin has improved to 29.04%, but the net profit margin remains deeply negative at -45.87%, highlighting ongoing challenges in cost management and operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.72, suggesting manageable leverage levels. However, the return on equity is negative at -48.14%, reflecting the company's inability to generate profits from shareholders' equity. The equity ratio is relatively stable, indicating a solid asset base, but the negative ROE is a concern for investors.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a challenging situation with negative operating cash flow and free cash flow. Although there is a positive free cash flow growth rate of 13.48%, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow issues. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.84, suggesting that while free cash flow exceeds net income, the overall cash position remains weak.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	554.53M	436.21M	244.59M	211.00M	62.24M	35.16M
Gross Profit	175.77M	116.15M	51.41M	18.99M	-1.89M	-11.82M
EBITDA	-190.39M	-151.80M	-144.93M	-95.20M	-91.20M	-45.61M
Net Income	-197.63M	-190.18M	-182.57M	-135.94M	-117.32M	-55.01M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.22B	1.18B	941.21M	989.12M	980.85M	187.87M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	976.74M	418.99M	244.77M	471.79M	690.96M	52.79M
Total Debt	516.62M	468.42M	176.69M	152.78M	128.43M	27.30M
Total Liabilities	940.41M	801.89M	386.67M	315.92M	282.40M	354.58M
Stockholders Equity	1.28B	382.45M	554.54M	673.21M	698.45M	-166.71M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-231.56M	-115.98M	-153.57M	-148.95M	-97.49M	-52.88M
Operating Cash Flow	-103.38M	-48.89M	-98.87M	-106.54M	-71.79M	-27.76M
Investing Cash Flow	-261.18M	-98.33M	12.02M	-346.08M	-92.13M	-37.33M
Financing Cash Flow	881.92M	256.68M	7.37M	2.04M	799.94M	21.48M

Rocket Lab USA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 80.07
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RKLB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 80.07 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 86.12, above the 50-day MA of 68.93, and above the 200-day MA of 48.70, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.68 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.79 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RKLB.

Rocket Lab USA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PL	64 Neutral	$8.32B	-53.60	-31.83%	―	16.89%	-4.41%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
RDW	58 Neutral	$1.94B	-3.42	-50.08%	―	-0.63%	-163.11%
RKLB	56 Neutral	$42.77B	-191.26	-23.24%	―	52.42%	-1.33%
LUNR	56 Neutral	$3.42B	-9.55	―	―	8.07%	33.37%
EVEX	49 Neutral	$1.37B	―	-115.63%	―	―	-33.69%

Rocket Lab USA Corporate Events

Rocket Lab Updates Neutron Rocket After Test Tank Rupture

On January 21, 2026, Rocket Lab reported that qualification testing of the Stage 1 tank for its in-development Neutron medium-lift rocket resulted in a rupture during a hydrostatic pressure trial, an event the company framed as a not-uncommon outcome of pushing hardware beyond operating limits in order to validate structural integrity and safety margins. Rocket Lab said there was no significant damage to test structures or facilities, the next Stage 1 tank is already in production, and the broader Neutron development campaign is continuing while engineers review test data to determine the impact on the rocket’s launch schedule, with investors and customers awaiting further clarity on timing at the company’s upcoming fourth-quarter 2025 earnings update in February.

The most recent analyst rating on (RKLB) stock is a Buy with a $120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rocket Lab USA stock, see the RKLB Stock Forecast page.

Rocket Lab Wins Landmark $816 Million SDA Satellite Contract

On December 19, 2025, Rocket Lab announced it had secured an $816 million prime contract from the U.S. Space Development Agency to design, manufacture, operate and sustain 18 missile-defense satellites for the Tracking Layer Tranche 3 constellation, with work starting immediately and final satellite delivery expected in 2029. The award, which follows a prior $515 million SDA contract and can expand toward $1 billion when including additional subsystem sales to other Tranche 3 primes, marks Rocket Lab’s largest contract to date and reinforces its emergence as a vertically integrated, disruptive prime contractor in U.S. national security space, challenging legacy aerospace players and deepening its role in the U.S. Space Force’s missile warning and tracking architecture.

The most recent analyst rating on (RKLB) stock is a Hold with a $49.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rocket Lab USA stock, see the RKLB Stock Forecast page.

Rocket Lab Reports Record Q3 2025 Revenue Growth

Rocket Lab announced its third-quarter 2025 financial results, reporting a record quarterly revenue of $155 million, marking a 48% year-on-year growth. The company highlighted significant achievements including securing 17 Electron launch contracts, launching two HASTE missions, and acquiring Geost to enhance its capabilities in U.S. national security. Rocket Lab also opened Launch Complex 3 for its Neutron rocket and maintains a strong financial position with over $1 billion in liquidity, setting the stage for continued growth and strategic acquisitions.

The most recent analyst rating on (RKLB) stock is a Hold with a $48.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rocket Lab USA stock, see the RKLB Stock Forecast page.