Redwire (RDW) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.35B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 4.89M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.56
• Revenue Growth: -10.50%
• EPS Growth: -230.68%
• Country: US
• Employees: 750
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Aerospace & Defense
• EPS (TTM): -1.41
• Shares Outstanding: 144,039,950
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 7,824,115
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,889,150
• PEG Ratio: -0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): -20.97
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.58
• P/FCF Ratio: -45.85
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.31
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 6.76
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 266.57
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -12.02
• 1Y Price Target: $18.64
• Price Target Upside: 99.36% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 41 Neutral
• Price Target: $9.00 ▼(-3.74% Downside)

Redwire's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its poor financial performance, with significant losses and cash flow issues. While strategic initiatives and acquisitions offer potential growth, they are overshadowed by financial instability and operational challenges. Technical analysis and valuation further reflect the company's struggles, contributing to a low overall score.

Positive Factors

Strategic Initiatives

The SpaceMD initiative represents a strategic shift towards commercializing space-based pharmaceutical research, potentially opening new revenue streams and enhancing Redwire's market position in the space industry.

Contract Awards

A strong book-to-bill ratio indicates robust demand for Redwire's services, suggesting potential for future revenue growth and stability in its contract-driven business model.

Acquisition of Edge Autonomy

The acquisition of Edge Autonomy is expected to enhance Redwire's capabilities in multi-domain operations, potentially providing competitive advantages in defense and aerospace sectors.

Negative Factors

Negative Revenue Growth

Negative revenue growth indicates challenges in maintaining sales momentum, which could impact long-term financial health and market competitiveness if not addressed.

Financial Instability

Financial instability and past negative equity suggest potential risks to Redwire's ability to finance operations and invest in growth, impacting its long-term viability.

Delayed Government Contracts

Delays in government contracts can lead to revenue unpredictability and operational challenges, affecting Redwire's ability to plan and execute its strategic initiatives effectively.

Redwire Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Redwire Corporation, a space infrastructure company, develops, manufactures, and sells mission critical space solutions and components for national security, civil, and commercial space markets in the United States, Luxembourg, Germany, South Korea, Poland, and internationally. The company provides various antennas; and advanced sensors and components, which include solar arrays, composite booms, radio frequency antennas, payload adapters, space-qualifies camera systems, and star trackers and sun sensors. It also sells a proprietary enterprise software suite that enables digital engineering and generation of interactive modeling and simulations of individual components, entire spacecraft, and full constellations in a cloud-based Software as a Service business model. In addition, the company offers on-orbit servicing, assembly, and manufacturing solutions; and low-earth orbit commercialization, digitally engineered spacecraft, and space domain awareness and resiliency technology solutions. Redwire Corporation is headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

Redwire generates revenue through the sale of its advanced space technologies and infrastructure solutions. The company offers a broad range of products and services, including satellite components, space sensors, and on-orbit servicing equipment, which are sold to government space agencies, defense organizations, and commercial space enterprises. Key revenue streams include contracts and partnerships with NASA, the Department of Defense, and private aerospace companies, enabling the development and deployment of space missions. Additionally, Redwire capitalizes on the growing demand for space manufacturing and research, providing specialized equipment and technology to facilitate these activities. Strategic acquisitions and collaborations also play a significant role in enhancing their product offerings and expanding market reach, contributing to the company's financial performance.

Redwire Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Redwire's financial performance is severely challenged. The income statement shows declining revenues and substantial losses, with negative net profit and EBIT margins. The balance sheet indicates financial instability with a negative return on equity and past negative equity. Cash flow issues persist, with negative operating and free cash flows, despite a positive growth rate from a smaller negative base.

Income Statement

Redwire's income statement reveals significant challenges. The company has experienced negative revenue growth in the TTM, with a decline of 5.89%. Margins are under pressure, with a negative net profit margin of -71.95% and an EBIT margin of -60.26%. These figures indicate substantial losses and operational inefficiencies. Despite previous periods of revenue growth, the current trajectory is concerning.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.42 in the TTM, indicating manageable leverage. However, the return on equity is significantly negative at -80.48%, reflecting poor profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio stands at 60.19%, suggesting a reasonable level of equity financing. Overall, the balance sheet reflects financial instability with potential risks due to negative equity in prior periods.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis highlights severe issues, with negative operating cash flow and free cash flow in the TTM. The free cash flow growth rate is positive at 105.16%, but this is due to a smaller negative base. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is -0.86, indicating cash flow challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly positive at 1.08, suggesting some alignment between cash flow and reported earnings, albeit in a loss-making context.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	261.35M	304.10M	243.80M	160.55M	137.60M	57.44M
Gross Profit	6.62M	44.45M	57.97M	28.70M	29.38M	12.14M
EBITDA	-146.90M	-91.16M	-6.33M	-118.82M	-55.77M	-15.44M
Net Income	-188.06M	-114.31M	-27.26M	-130.62M	-61.54M	-15.71M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.51B	292.62M	271.27M	257.70M	261.76M	156.77M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	78.56M	49.07M	30.28M	28.32M	20.52M	22.08M
Total Debt	384.31M	144.98M	105.83M	95.08M	78.55M	79.54M
Total Liabilities	600.59M	344.53M	218.44M	264.17M	154.53M	117.58M
Stockholders Equity	907.59M	-51.91M	52.60M	-6.70M	107.22M	39.20M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-154.96M	-23.75M	-6.54M	-35.81M	-40.22M	-13.65M
Operating Cash Flow	-143.35M	-17.35M	1.23M	-31.66M	-37.36M	-12.49M
Investing Cash Flow	-169.47M	-7.20M	-8.33M	-37.38M	-38.54M	-85.57M
Financing Cash Flow	360.28M	43.72M	9.06M	76.56M	74.21M	124.07M

Redwire Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 9.35
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RDW, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 9.35 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.57, below the 50-day MA of 11.05, and below the 200-day MA of 13.82, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.51 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.60 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for RDW.

Redwire Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RKLB	55 Neutral	23.56B	-106.43	-33.60%	―	54.36%	-26.35%
SPCE	49 Neutral	215.39M	-0.41	-114.94%	―	-84.19%	55.27%
ACHR	49 Neutral	6.26B	-7.60	―	―	―	-4.00%
LUNR	43 Neutral	1.79B	-3.79	64.24%	―	43.23%	-3174.53%
RDW	41 Neutral	$1.35B	―	-45.35%	―	-10.50%	-230.68%
EVTL	25 Underperform	576.39M	-0.51	―	―	―	―
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%

Redwire Corporate Events

Redwire Appoints New Board Members Amid Leadership Changes

Redwire Corporation announced the appointment of Michael Greene and Raphael Wallander to its Board of Directors, effective July 11, 2025, following the resignations of Les Daniels and Michael Bevacqua. Greene, associated with AE Industrial Partners, and Wallander, owner of Maxwell Bay Advisors, bring extensive experience in investment and corporate management to the board. Their appointments are linked to specific investment agreements, and both will serve terms expiring in 2026 and 2027, respectively. The company has confirmed there are no related transactions or relationships requiring disclosure.

Redwire Announces Board Resignations Post-Acquisition

Redwire Corporation announced the resignation of certain board members following its acquisition of Edge Autonomy Intermediate Holdings, LLC and its subsidiaries. On June 26, 2025, Michael J. Bevacqua resigned, followed by David Kornblatt and Les Daniels on July 1, 2025. These resignations were made to facilitate the appointment of new directors and were not due to any disagreements with the company’s operations or policies.

Redwire Announces $260 Million Stock Offering Completion

On June 16, 2025, Redwire Corporation announced a common stock offering, selling 15,525,000 shares for approximately $260 million, which closed on June 18, 2025. The proceeds are intended for working capital, corporate uses, and the acquisition of Edge Autonomy. Redwire’s acquisition of Edge Autonomy, completed on June 13, 2025, expands its operations into the emerging UAS market, though it faces competition and regulatory challenges. The acquisition also exposes Redwire to new risks, including geopolitical factors affecting Edge Autonomy’s sales, particularly in Ukraine.

Redwire Completes Acquisition of Edge Autonomy

On June 13, 2025, Redwire Corporation completed its acquisition of Edge Autonomy for $925 million, funded through a combination of a $90 million credit agreement with JPMorgan Chase and a $100 million unsecured seller note. This acquisition, involving a mix of cash and stock, is expected to enhance Redwire’s market position in the aerospace and defense sector by integrating Edge Autonomy’s advanced technologies and expanding its customer base. The transaction included a special meeting of stockholders where the merger was approved, and an amended investor rights agreement was established to manage board representation and stockholder rights.

Redwire Amends Merger Agreement with Edge Autonomy

On June 8, 2025, Redwire Corporation announced an amendment to its merger agreement to acquire Edge Autonomy for $925 million. The amended terms include $160 million in cash and $765 million in Redwire common stock, with a holdback of $5 million in shares for post-closing adjustments. The merger is subject to stockholder approval, and Redwire has secured commitments for $90 million in debt financing to facilitate the transaction. The company also amended its credit facility to extend its maturity date and adjust interest rates. The acquisition aims to enhance Redwire’s position in the space infrastructure industry by integrating Edge Autonomy’s uncrewed airborne system technology.