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Redwire (RDW)
NYSE:RDW
US Market

Redwire (RDW) AI Stock Analysis

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Redwire

(NYSE:RDW)

Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$17.00
▲(8.97%Upside)
Redwire's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its weak financial performance, which presents significant risks. However, positive earnings call sentiment and strategic corporate events, such as the Edge Autonomy acquisition, provide some optimism. Technical indicators and valuation concerns temper the overall outlook.
Positive Factors
Acquisition Impact
The acquisition of Edge Autonomy is expected to be immediately accretive across revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow.
Financial Strategy
The company recently completed a $260.0M capital raise, which is expected to simplify the balance sheet and provide additional growth capital.
Revenue Growth
The company is guiding full year 2025 revenue, including Edge Autonomy, of between $535.0M and $605.0M, suggesting optimism for future growth.
Negative Factors
Financial Performance
Financial performance remains tenuous, and growth fell last quarter.
Market Competition
Downside risks to the rating and price target include more growth headwinds for Edge due to a more challenging competitive environment within the defense autonomy space.
Market Reaction
Shares of Redwire Corporation decreased 6.6% following the release of 1Q25 operating results.

Redwire (RDW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Redwire Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionRedwire Corporation, a space infrastructure company, develops, manufactures, and sells mission critical space solutions and components for national security, civil, and commercial space markets in the United States, Luxembourg, Germany, South Korea, Poland, and internationally. The company provides various antennas; and advanced sensors and components, which include solar arrays, composite booms, radio frequency antennas, payload adapters, space-qualifies camera systems, and star trackers and sun sensors. It also sells a proprietary enterprise software suite that enables digital engineering and generation of interactive modeling and simulations of individual components, entire spacecraft, and full constellations in a cloud-based Software as a Service business model. In addition, the company offers on-orbit servicing, assembly, and manufacturing solutions; and low-earth orbit commercialization, digitally engineered spacecraft, and space domain awareness and resiliency technology solutions. Redwire Corporation is headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida.
How the Company Makes MoneyRedwire generates revenue through the sale of its advanced space technologies and infrastructure solutions. The company offers a broad range of products and services, including satellite components, space sensors, and on-orbit servicing equipment, which are sold to government space agencies, defense organizations, and commercial space enterprises. Key revenue streams include contracts and partnerships with NASA, the Department of Defense, and private aerospace companies, enabling the development and deployment of space missions. Additionally, Redwire capitalizes on the growing demand for space manufacturing and research, providing specialized equipment and technology to facilitate these activities. Strategic acquisitions and collaborations also play a significant role in enhancing their product offerings and expanding market reach, contributing to the company's financial performance.

Redwire Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Book to Bill
Book to Bill
Compares the number of new orders received to the number of orders fulfilled, indicating demand strength and operational efficiency. A ratio above one suggests growth potential, while below one may signal declining demand.
Chart InsightsRedwire's book-to-bill ratio has shown volatility, with notable peaks at the end of 2022 and 2023, but it remains below one for most of 2024. This indicates challenges in converting proposals into contracts, despite a significant increase in submitted proposals. The earnings call highlights strategic investments and a strong proposal pipeline, suggesting potential future growth. However, the current low book-to-bill ratio reflects execution risks and profitability challenges, underscoring the need for improved contract conversion to sustain momentum.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Redwire Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 37.93%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant strategic progress and financial improvements, including strong contract awards, enhanced liquidity, and successful execution of growth strategies. However, revenue decline and challenges in the U.S. Government market were noted. Despite these issues, the overall sentiment remains positive due to the outweighing highlights, including an improved financial position and strategic partnerships.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Contract Awards and Backlog
Contract awards during the first quarter of 2025 were $56.2 million with a book-to-bill ratio of 0.92 times, showing an improvement both sequentially and year-over-year. Backlog remained relatively flat at $291.2 million, with 37% from international operations.
Successful Execution of Growth Strategy
Redwire executed key elements of its 2025 growth strategy, including a contract for docking systems with Thales Alenia Space, a study contract for the ARRAKIHS dark matter mission, and a significant partnership with i-space-U.S. for lunar exploration.
Improved Financial Position
Sequential improvement in adjusted EBITDA from negative $9.2 million in Q4 2024 to negative $2.3 million in Q1 2025, and a significant improvement in net loss by more than $60 million.
Record Level Available Liquidity
Redwire ended the quarter with a record level of available liquidity at $89.2 million, a 39.2% improvement over the previous year.
Edge Autonomy Acquisition Progress
Announced the acquisition of Edge Autonomy expecting it to transform Redwire into a leader in multi-domain autonomous technology.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline
Redwire recorded revenues of $61.4 million, a decrease both sequentially and year-over-year. Delays in awards across various customer classes, particularly in the U.S.
Challenges in U.S. Government Market
Notable delays in awards in the U.S. Government market due to transitions of key decision makers and budget uncertainty with the new administration.
Company Guidance
During the Redwire Corporation's first quarter 2025 earnings call, CEO Peter Cannito highlighted several key metrics and strategic priorities for the year. Redwire's contract awards for Q1 totaled $56.2 million with a book-to-bill ratio of 0.92 times, and the backlog remained stable at $291.2 million as of March 31, 2025. The company is focusing on a 52.9% compound annual growth rate for revenue from fiscal year 2023 to 2025, targeting a range of $535 million to $605 million for the full year, and an adjusted EBITDA between $70 million and $105 million. The strategic growth areas include providing "picks and shovels" like docking systems, exploring the moon and Mars, and expanding through accretive M&A, such as the acquisition of Edge Autonomy, which is expected to close in Q2 2025. Redwire's financial performance showed improvement with a net loss of $2.9 million and adjusted EBITDA moving from a negative $9.2 million in Q4 2024 to negative $2.3 million in Q1 2025. The company maintains a strong liquidity position with $89.2 million, despite challenges such as EAC impacts and dynamic market conditions.

Redwire Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Redwire's financial performance is concerning, with significant challenges in profitability and financial stability. The income statement shows persistent net losses and negative profit margins, while the balance sheet indicates high leverage and potential solvency issues with negative equity. Cash flows are negative, reflecting liquidity challenges and reliance on external financing.
Income Statement
40
Negative
Redwire's income statement reveals significant challenges. The TTM revenue has decreased compared to the previous year, indicating negative revenue growth. Gross profit margin fell significantly, with the most recent TTM showing a slight margin, but net profit margins remain deeply negative due to substantial losses. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also been negative, reflecting operational inefficiencies. Overall, the income statement highlights ongoing struggles with profitability and revenue growth.
Balance Sheet
30
Negative
The balance sheet indicates financial instability. The debt-to-equity ratio is not meaningful due to negative equity, suggesting high leverage and potential solvency issues. The negative stockholders' equity reflects accumulated losses exceeding asset values. The equity ratio is also negative, further signaling financial distress. Despite some asset growth, liabilities have increased, exacerbating financial risk. Redwire's balance sheet portrays a company facing high financial leverage and potential solvency challenges.
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
Redwire's cash flow statement shows negative operating and free cash flows, impacting liquidity. The free cash flow has worsened compared to previous periods, indicating increasing cash burn. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, consistent with the company's losses. While financing activities have provided cash inflows, reliance on external financing raises concerns about sustainability. Overall, Redwire's cash flow position underscores liquidity challenges and dependence on external funding.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue292.00M304.10M243.80M160.55M137.60M57.44M
Gross Profit55.66M44.45M57.97M28.70M29.38M12.14M
EBITDA-18.33M-91.16M-6.33M-118.82M-55.77M-15.44M
Net Income-40.73M-114.31M-27.26M-130.62M-61.54M-15.71M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets259.54M292.62M271.27M257.70M261.76M156.77M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments32.57M49.07M30.28M28.32M20.52M22.08M
Total Debt203.30M144.98M105.83M95.08M78.55M79.54M
Total Liabilities309.11M344.53M218.44M264.17M154.53M117.58M
Stockholders Equity-49.79M-188.71M52.60M-6.70M107.22M39.20M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-4.14M-23.75M-6.54M-35.81M-40.22M-13.65M
Operating Cash Flow5.69M-17.35M1.23M-31.66M-37.36M-12.49M
Investing Cash Flow-5.24M-7.20M-8.33M-37.38M-38.54M-85.57M
Financing Cash Flow19.43M43.72M9.06M76.56M74.21M124.07M

Redwire Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price15.60
Price Trends
50DMA
14.24
Positive
100DMA
13.68
Positive
200DMA
13.00
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.32
Positive
RSI
48.43
Neutral
STOCH
33.95
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RDW, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 15.6 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.38, above the 50-day MA of 14.24, and above the 200-day MA of 13.00, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.32 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for RDW.

Redwire Risk Analysis

Redwire disclosed 57 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Redwire reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Redwire Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
PLPL
71
Outperform
$1.87B-22.54%9.52%24.27%
68
Neutral
$1.15B-1.35%13.73%86.81%
DCDCO
68
Neutral
$1.23B35.525.25%3.02%95.76%
65
Neutral
$10.65B15.525.51%1.92%2.72%-26.34%
RDRDW
54
Neutral
$2.18B-451.56%1.36%-213.86%
49
Neutral
$6.26B-73.89%17.43%
40
Underperform
$732.26M-42.87%102.32%13.67%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
RDW
Redwire
15.60
8.75
127.74%
ATRO
Astronics
32.53
12.91
65.80%
DCO
Ducommun
82.85
25.63
44.79%
SKYH
Sky Harbour Group
9.86
0.70
7.64%
ACHR
Archer Aviation
9.98
5.58
126.82%
PL
Planet Labs PBC
6.14
4.30
233.70%

Redwire Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesM&A Transactions
Redwire Announces Board Resignations Post-Acquisition
Neutral
Jul 2, 2025

Redwire Corporation announced the resignation of certain board members following its acquisition of Edge Autonomy Intermediate Holdings, LLC and its subsidiaries. On June 26, 2025, Michael J. Bevacqua resigned, followed by David Kornblatt and Les Daniels on July 1, 2025. These resignations were made to facilitate the appointment of new directors and were not due to any disagreements with the company’s operations or policies.

The most recent analyst rating on (RDW) stock is a Buy with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Redwire stock, see the RDW Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingM&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Redwire Announces $260 Million Stock Offering Completion
Neutral
Jun 18, 2025

On June 16, 2025, Redwire Corporation announced a common stock offering, selling 15,525,000 shares for approximately $260 million, which closed on June 18, 2025. The proceeds are intended for working capital, corporate uses, and the acquisition of Edge Autonomy. Redwire’s acquisition of Edge Autonomy, completed on June 13, 2025, expands its operations into the emerging UAS market, though it faces competition and regulatory challenges. The acquisition also exposes Redwire to new risks, including geopolitical factors affecting Edge Autonomy’s sales, particularly in Ukraine.

The most recent analyst rating on (RDW) stock is a Buy with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Redwire stock, see the RDW Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingM&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
Redwire Completes Acquisition of Edge Autonomy
Positive
Jun 13, 2025

On June 13, 2025, Redwire Corporation completed its acquisition of Edge Autonomy for $925 million, funded through a combination of a $90 million credit agreement with JPMorgan Chase and a $100 million unsecured seller note. This acquisition, involving a mix of cash and stock, is expected to enhance Redwire’s market position in the aerospace and defense sector by integrating Edge Autonomy’s advanced technologies and expanding its customer base. The transaction included a special meeting of stockholders where the merger was approved, and an amended investor rights agreement was established to manage board representation and stockholder rights.

The most recent analyst rating on (RDW) stock is a Buy with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Redwire stock, see the RDW Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingM&A Transactions
Redwire Amends Merger Agreement with Edge Autonomy
Positive
Jun 9, 2025

On June 8, 2025, Redwire Corporation announced an amendment to its merger agreement to acquire Edge Autonomy for $925 million. The amended terms include $160 million in cash and $765 million in Redwire common stock, with a holdback of $5 million in shares for post-closing adjustments. The merger is subject to stockholder approval, and Redwire has secured commitments for $90 million in debt financing to facilitate the transaction. The company also amended its credit facility to extend its maturity date and adjust interest rates. The acquisition aims to enhance Redwire’s position in the space infrastructure industry by integrating Edge Autonomy’s uncrewed airborne system technology.

The most recent analyst rating on (RDW) stock is a Buy with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Redwire stock, see the RDW Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Redwire Holds 2025 Annual Shareholders Meeting
Neutral
May 21, 2025

On May 21, 2025, Redwire Corporation held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Shareholders. During this meeting, shareholders elected Class III directors to serve until the 2028 Annual Meeting, ratified the appointment of KPMG LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025, and approved an amendment to the Company’s Certificate of Incorporation to limit the personal liability of certain officers for monetary damages for breach of fiduciary duty.

The most recent analyst rating on (RDW) stock is a Buy with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Redwire stock, see the RDW Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Redwire Acquires Edge Autonomy to Boost Capabilities
Positive
Apr 10, 2025

On April 9, 2025, Redwire Corporation announced its acquisition of Edge Autonomy at the 40th Annual Space Symposium. This strategic move, expected to be completed in the second quarter, aims to enhance Redwire’s capabilities in joint-domain warfighting by integrating Edge’s autonomous UAS and ISR systems. The acquisition is anticipated to strengthen Redwire’s position in the space industry by offering advanced solutions for warfighter communications and space-domain awareness, benefiting both U.S. and allied partners.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Redwire Announces Acquisition of Edge Autonomy
Positive
Apr 9, 2025

On April 8, 2025, Redwire Corporation announced at the 40th Annual Space Symposium its agreement to acquire Edge Autonomy, a move aimed at enhancing its capabilities in connecting the battlespace with space assets. The acquisition is expected to close in the second quarter of 2025, with Redwire having cleared regulatory hurdles in the U.S., UK, and Latvia. This strategic acquisition is anticipated to strengthen Redwire’s position in the aerospace industry by integrating space and airborne technologies, offering cost-effective solutions for national security applications, and expanding its presence in international markets.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 18, 2025