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Redwire Corporation (RDW)
:RDW
US Market

Redwire (RDW) AI Stock Analysis

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Redwire

(NYSE:RDW)

Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$11.50
▼( -9.52% Downside)
Redwire's stock score reflects significant financial challenges, including high leverage and negative profitability. While strategic initiatives and technical indicators provide some optimism, the financial performance and valuation concerns weigh heavily on the overall score. The earnings call highlights strategic improvements, but immediate financial risks remain a critical concern.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
The company is guiding full year 2025 revenue, including Edge Autonomy, of between $535.0M and $605.0M, suggesting optimism for future growth.
Strategic Acquisition
Redwire has been upgraded from Neutral to Buy due to its transformative acquisition of Edge Autonomy, positioning it as a leading space infrastructure and defense technology company.
Negative Factors
Market Performance
Shares of Redwire Corporation declined 8.4% versus a 0.2% increase in the Russell 2000 following the release of softer than expected 4Q24 results.
Risks and Challenges
There are risks including dilution risk, high industry competition, technology and execution risks, customer concentration risk, and intellectual property risks.

Redwire (RDW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Redwire Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionRedwire Corporation, a space infrastructure company, develops, manufactures, and sells mission critical space solutions and components for national security, civil, and commercial space markets in the United States, Luxembourg, Germany, South Korea, Poland, and internationally. The company provides various antennas; and advanced sensors and components, which include solar arrays, composite booms, radio frequency antennas, payload adapters, space-qualifies camera systems, and star trackers and sun sensors. It also sells a proprietary enterprise software suite that enables digital engineering and generation of interactive modeling and simulations of individual components, entire spacecraft, and full constellations in a cloud-based Software as a Service business model. In addition, the company offers on-orbit servicing, assembly, and manufacturing solutions; and low-earth orbit commercialization, digitally engineered spacecraft, and space domain awareness and resiliency technology solutions. Redwire Corporation is headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida.
How the Company Makes MoneyRedwire makes money through a diverse revenue model that includes the sale of high-reliability spacecraft components, on-orbit servicing solutions, and space infrastructure development. Key revenue streams include contracts with government agencies such as NASA and the Department of Defense, as well as commercial partnerships with satellite and space exploration companies. The company also leverages its expertise in additive manufacturing and 3D printing technology to offer unique solutions for in-space manufacturing, which contributes to its earnings. Strategic acquisitions and partnerships further enhance Redwire's ability to provide comprehensive space solutions, driving its financial performance.

Redwire Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Backlog
Backlog
Represents the value of unfulfilled orders, showing future revenue visibility and overall product demand strength.
Chart InsightsRedwire's backlog experienced fluctuations, peaking in mid-2024 before declining by year-end. Despite this, the company is poised for significant growth in 2025, driven by a surge in proposals and strategic acquisitions like Edge Autonomy. However, challenges such as a low book-to-bill ratio and unfavorable EAC adjustments have impacted profitability. The company's expansion efforts and increased production capabilities suggest strong future potential, but execution risks remain. Investors should watch for improved contract conversions and cost management to sustain momentum.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Redwire Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Redwire shows strong revenue growth but struggles with profitability, high leverage, negative equity, and poor cash flow generation. The financial instability suggests significant risks.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Redwire has shown significant revenue growth over the years, but profitability remains a challenge. The company has been consistently operating at a loss, which is reflected in negative EBIT and net profit margins. Despite an increase in revenue, the gross profit margin has declined from 23.8% in 2023 to 14.6% in 2024, indicating increased cost pressures.
Balance Sheet
30
Negative
The balance sheet reflects a concerning financial position, with negative stockholders' equity indicating more liabilities than assets. The debt-to-equity ratio cannot be calculated due to negative equity, signifying financial risk. Redwire's total assets have grown, but high leverage and negative equity are major concerns.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Cash flow analysis shows Redwire is struggling with negative operating cash flows and free cash flows over the years, despite some fluctuations. The company’s free cash flow to net income ratio is not favorable, and the operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash generation issues from core operations.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
304.10M243.80M160.55M137.60M57.44M
Gross Profit
44.45M57.97M28.70M29.38M12.14M
EBIT
-42.20M-14.68M-46.59M-53.83M-8.62M
EBITDA
-91.16M-6.33M-118.82M-55.77M-15.44M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-114.31M-27.26M-130.62M-61.54M-15.71M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
49.07M30.28M28.32M20.52M22.08M
Total Assets
292.62M271.27M257.70M261.76M156.77M
Total Debt
144.98M105.83M95.08M78.55M79.54M
Net Debt
95.91M75.56M66.77M58.03M57.47M
Total Liabilities
344.53M218.44M264.17M154.53M117.58M
Stockholders Equity
-188.71M52.60M-6.70M107.22M39.20M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-23.75M-6.54M-35.81M-40.22M-13.65M
Operating Cash Flow
-17.35M1.23M-31.66M-37.36M-12.49M
Investing Cash Flow
-7.20M-8.33M-37.38M-38.54M-85.57M
Financing Cash Flow
43.72M9.06M76.56M74.21M124.07M

Redwire Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price12.71
Price Trends
50DMA
10.60
Positive
100DMA
14.30
Negative
200DMA
11.62
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.49
Negative
RSI
60.38
Neutral
STOCH
65.97
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RDW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.71 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.68, above the 50-day MA of 10.60, and above the 200-day MA of 11.62, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.49 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RDW.

Redwire Risk Analysis

Redwire disclosed 57 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Redwire reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Redwire Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
DCDCO
75
Outperform
$1.00B28.845.25%3.02%95.76%
66
Neutral
$1.06B-1.35%13.73%86.81%
64
Neutral
$4.39B11.815.20%249.38%3.96%-12.36%
PLPL
53
Neutral
$1.12B-25.68%10.72%16.19%
RDRDW
51
Neutral
$1.00B-451.56%1.36%-213.86%
49
Neutral
$5.81B-73.89%17.43%
48
Neutral
$823.32M-42.87%102.32%13.67%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
RDW
Redwire
13.00
7.97
158.45%
ATRO
Astronics
30.19
9.27
44.31%
DCO
Ducommun
67.74
9.27
15.85%
SKYH
Sky Harbour Group
10.88
-1.72
-13.65%
ACHR
Archer Aviation
10.59
7.29
220.91%
PL
Planet Labs PBC
3.68
1.78
93.68%

Redwire Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 12.38%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant strategic progress and financial improvements, including strong contract awards, enhanced liquidity, and successful execution of growth strategies. However, revenue decline and challenges in the U.S. Government market were noted. Despite these issues, the overall sentiment remains positive due to the outweighing highlights, including an improved financial position and strategic partnerships.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Contract Awards and Backlog
Contract awards during the first quarter of 2025 were $56.2 million with a book-to-bill ratio of 0.92 times, showing an improvement both sequentially and year-over-year. Backlog remained relatively flat at $291.2 million, with 37% from international operations.
Successful Execution of Growth Strategy
Redwire executed key elements of its 2025 growth strategy, including a contract for docking systems with Thales Alenia Space, a study contract for the ARRAKIHS dark matter mission, and a significant partnership with i-space-U.S. for lunar exploration.
Improved Financial Position
Sequential improvement in adjusted EBITDA from negative $9.2 million in Q4 2024 to negative $2.3 million in Q1 2025, and a significant improvement in net loss by more than $60 million.
Record Level Available Liquidity
Redwire ended the quarter with a record level of available liquidity at $89.2 million, a 39.2% improvement over the previous year.
Edge Autonomy Acquisition Progress
Announced the acquisition of Edge Autonomy expecting it to transform Redwire into a leader in multi-domain autonomous technology.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline
Redwire recorded revenues of $61.4 million, a decrease both sequentially and year-over-year. Delays in awards across various customer classes, particularly in the U.S.
Challenges in U.S. Government Market
Notable delays in awards in the U.S. Government market due to transitions of key decision makers and budget uncertainty with the new administration.
Company Guidance
During the Redwire Corporation's first quarter 2025 earnings call, CEO Peter Cannito highlighted several key metrics and strategic priorities for the year. Redwire's contract awards for Q1 totaled $56.2 million with a book-to-bill ratio of 0.92 times, and the backlog remained stable at $291.2 million as of March 31, 2025. The company is focusing on a 52.9% compound annual growth rate for revenue from fiscal year 2023 to 2025, targeting a range of $535 million to $605 million for the full year, and an adjusted EBITDA between $70 million and $105 million. The strategic growth areas include providing "picks and shovels" like docking systems, exploring the moon and Mars, and expanding through accretive M&A, such as the acquisition of Edge Autonomy, which is expected to close in Q2 2025. Redwire's financial performance showed improvement with a net loss of $2.9 million and adjusted EBITDA moving from a negative $9.2 million in Q4 2024 to negative $2.3 million in Q1 2025. The company maintains a strong liquidity position with $89.2 million, despite challenges such as EAC impacts and dynamic market conditions.

Redwire Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Redwire Holds 2025 Annual Shareholders Meeting
Neutral
May 21, 2025

On May 21, 2025, Redwire Corporation held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Shareholders. During this meeting, shareholders elected Class III directors to serve until the 2028 Annual Meeting, ratified the appointment of KPMG LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025, and approved an amendment to the Company’s Certificate of Incorporation to limit the personal liability of certain officers for monetary damages for breach of fiduciary duty.

The most recent analyst rating on (RDW) stock is a Buy with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Redwire stock, see the RDW Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Redwire Acquires Edge Autonomy to Boost Capabilities
Positive
Apr 10, 2025

On April 9, 2025, Redwire Corporation announced its acquisition of Edge Autonomy at the 40th Annual Space Symposium. This strategic move, expected to be completed in the second quarter, aims to enhance Redwire’s capabilities in joint-domain warfighting by integrating Edge’s autonomous UAS and ISR systems. The acquisition is anticipated to strengthen Redwire’s position in the space industry by offering advanced solutions for warfighter communications and space-domain awareness, benefiting both U.S. and allied partners.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Redwire Announces Acquisition of Edge Autonomy
Positive
Apr 9, 2025

On April 8, 2025, Redwire Corporation announced at the 40th Annual Space Symposium its agreement to acquire Edge Autonomy, a move aimed at enhancing its capabilities in connecting the battlespace with space assets. The acquisition is expected to close in the second quarter of 2025, with Redwire having cleared regulatory hurdles in the U.S., UK, and Latvia. This strategic acquisition is anticipated to strengthen Redwire’s position in the aerospace industry by integrating space and airborne technologies, offering cost-effective solutions for national security applications, and expanding its presence in international markets.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Redwire CEO Discusses Strategic Focus and Acquisitions
Positive
Apr 2, 2025

On April 2, 2025, Redwire Corporation distributed an interview with its CEO, Peter Cannito, discussing the company’s recent activities and strategic focus. The interview highlighted Redwire’s development of a smaller robotic arm for European space missions and its emphasis on engaging retail investors who are increasingly important in the financial markets. Cannito also discussed Redwire’s role in recent lunar missions and the company’s M&A strategy, particularly the significant acquisition of Edge Autonomy, which aligns with Redwire’s long-term investment strategy in space and defense technologies.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Redwire Secures Approvals for Edge Autonomy Acquisition
Positive
Mar 21, 2025

On March 21, 2025, Redwire Corporation announced it has received all necessary regulatory approvals for its acquisition of Edge Autonomy, with the transaction expected to close in the second quarter of 2025 pending final conditions, including stockholder approval. This acquisition marks a significant milestone for Redwire, potentially enhancing its market position and operational capabilities in the space infrastructure sector.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Redwire to Acquire Edge Autonomy for Growth
Positive
Mar 19, 2025

On March 18, 2025, Redwire Corporation presented at the 37th Annual Roth Conference, discussing its agreement to acquire Edge Autonomy. This acquisition is expected to enhance Redwire’s position in the national security sector by integrating uncrewed aerial systems with its existing space and defense technologies, aiming to create a seamless system of systems. The acquisition aligns with Redwire’s strategy to differentiate itself in the space and defense tech industry, leveraging its public company status for transparency and growth.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Redwire Announces Acquisition of Edge Autonomy
Positive
Mar 13, 2025

On March 12, 2025, Redwire Corporation announced its transformative acquisition of Edge Autonomy, a major UAS systems developer, during the Cantor Global Technology Conference. This acquisition is expected to enhance Redwire’s capabilities in providing seamless communication systems for defense applications, particularly in Europe, and contribute to significant revenue growth. Redwire reported a 25% revenue growth in 2024 and anticipates further growth in 2025, with projected revenues between $535 million and $605 million. The acquisition is also expected to improve the company’s profitability and market positioning in the defense tech space.

M&A TransactionsFinancial Disclosures
Redwire Announces Acquisition of Edge Autonomy
Positive
Mar 11, 2025

On March 11, 2025, Redwire Corporation held an earnings call to discuss its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ending December 31, 2024. During the call, Redwire announced its agreement to acquire Edge Autonomy, a move that could enhance its market positioning by integrating Edge Autonomy’s capabilities. This acquisition is expected to impact Redwire’s operations and potentially benefit stakeholders by expanding its service offerings in the space infrastructure sector.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.