Redwire (RDW) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.39B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 27.84M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.84
• Revenue Growth: -0.63%
• EPS Growth: -163.11%
• Country: US
• Employees: 750
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Aerospace & Defense
• EPS (TTM): -0.58
• Shares Outstanding: 165,150,790
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 13,652,748
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 27,843,454
• PEG Ratio: 13.46
• Price to Book (P/B): 8.57
• Price to Sales (P/S): 27.09
• P/FCF Ratio: -47.61
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.99
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.09
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 79.39
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -7.83
• 1Y Price Target: $13.07
• Price Target Upside: 51.62% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.37
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $457.08M

• Rating: 51 Neutral
• Price Target: $8.50 ▼(-1.39% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/27/26

The score is held back most by weak financial quality—very low margins and substantial cash burn—plus bearish technicals with the stock below key moving averages and negative MACD. Offsetting this, the latest earnings call featured strong 2026 growth guidance supported by record backlog, bookings strength, and improved liquidity/deleveraging, while valuation is mixed due to ongoing losses and no dividend support.

Positive Factors

Record backlog & strong bookings

A $411M contracted backlog and sustained book-to-bill >1 provide durable revenue visibility and support the 2026 guide. This backlog underpins multi-quarter production planning, supplier commitments, and predictable revenue cadence if execution and award timing hold.

Improved liquidity and deleveraging

Material cash on hand, an undrawn revolver and significant 2025 debt paydowns materially reduce near-term refinancing pressure. Lower interest expense and clearer covenant headroom increase financial flexibility to fund production ramp and absorb program timing slips.

Diversified product set and scaled production

Acquisition-driven defense capabilities plus new products (ELSA) and added production capacity create structural revenue diversification and improve margins as programs transition from development to repeatable production, enabling scale economies across space and defense segments.

Negative Factors

Persistent negative cash flow

Large and worsening negative operating and free cash flows strain the balance sheet and force reliance on external financing or equity actions. Sustained cash burn limits reinvestment ability and increases funding risk if revenue conversion slows or unexpected costs arise.

Weak and deteriorating margins

Sharp margin deterioration versus prior years indicates difficulty converting higher revenue into profits. Low reported gross margins reduce free-cash generation potential and heighten sensitivity to contract pricing, production inefficiencies, and nonrecurring adjustments.

Execution and timing risk on awards

Heavy reliance on government awards and program timing creates conversion risk for the portion of guidance not yet contracted. Delays or scope changes can push revenue out, stress margins, and necessitate bridge financing during production and testing phases.

Redwire Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Redwire Corporation, a space infrastructure company, develops, manufactures, and sells mission critical space solutions and components for national security, civil, and commercial space markets in the United States, Luxembourg, Germany, South Korea, Poland, and internationally. The company provides various antennas; and advanced sensors and components, which include solar arrays, composite booms, radio frequency antennas, payload adapters, space-qualifies camera systems, and star trackers and sun sensors. It also sells a proprietary enterprise software suite that enables digital engineering and generation of interactive modeling and simulations of individual components, entire spacecraft, and full constellations in a cloud-based Software as a Service business model. In addition, the company offers on-orbit servicing, assembly, and manufacturing solutions; and low-earth orbit commercialization, digitally engineered spacecraft, and space domain awareness and resiliency technology solutions. Redwire Corporation is headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

Redwire generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily focusing on contracts with government agencies, commercial partnerships, and space missions. The company earns income by providing engineering services and products for satellite development, manufacturing, and deployment. Key revenue streams include contracts with NASA and the Department of Defense for various space-related projects, as well as collaborations with private sector clients seeking advanced space technologies. Additionally, Redwire benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its capabilities and market reach, allowing it to tap into emerging opportunities in the expanding space economy.

Redwire Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year revenue scale-up is overshadowed by sharply weaker profitability (very low gross margin and deeply negative net margin) and heavy cash burn, with 2025 operating and free cash flow significantly negative. Balance sheet leverage looks modest in 2025, but recent equity volatility and negative returns limit the strength of the financial profile.

Income Statement

Revenue has scaled meaningfully over time (2025 revenue of ~$335M vs. ~$57M in 2020), showing demand traction. However, profitability has deteriorated: 2025 gross margin fell to ~5% (from ~15% in 2024 and ~24% in 2023) and net margin was deeply negative (~-68%), reflecting heavy cost pressure and a sharp swing to much larger losses versus 2024. Overall, strong top-line growth is outweighed by weak and worsening margins.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears modest in 2025 with low debt relative to equity (debt-to-equity ~0.04), providing balance-sheet flexibility. That said, returns are weak with negative return on equity in 2025, and the capital structure has shown instability historically (including negative equity in 2024), which raises questions about consistency in underlying financial strength.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a key concern: 2025 operating cash flow was about -$177M and free cash flow about -$191M, both significantly worse than 2024, indicating meaningful cash burn. While free cash flow has sometimes tracked net losses (e.g., 2025 free cash flow vs. net income), the absolute level of outflows and the sharp deterioration year-over-year increase funding and execution risk.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	335.38M	304.10M	243.80M	160.55M	137.60M
Gross Profit	17.29M	44.45M	57.97M	28.70M	29.38M
EBITDA	-229.68M	-21.40M	-4.81M	-35.30M	-32.99M
Net Income	-226.55M	-114.31M	-27.26M	-130.62M	-61.54M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.45B	292.62M	271.27M	257.70M	261.76M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	95.18M	49.07M	30.28M	28.32M	20.52M
Total Debt	43.76M	144.98M	105.83M	95.08M	78.55M
Total Liabilities	312.09M	344.53M	218.44M	187.81M	154.53M
Stockholders Equity	1.06B	-51.91M	52.60M	69.66M	107.22M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-190.81M	-23.75M	-7.10M	-35.81M	-40.22M
Operating Cash Flow	-177.33M	-17.35M	1.23M	-31.66M	-37.36M
Investing Cash Flow	-175.07M	-7.20M	-8.33M	-37.38M	-38.54M
Financing Cash Flow	397.50M	43.72M	9.06M	76.56M	74.21M

Redwire Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 8.62
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RDW, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 8.62 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.57, below the 50-day MA of 9.47, and below the 200-day MA of 10.66, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.53 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.92 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for RDW.

Redwire Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
RKLB	56 Neutral	$37.37B	-181.07	-23.24%	―	52.42%	-1.33%
LUNR	56 Neutral	$3.84B	-8.51	―	―	8.07%	33.37%
ACHR	55 Neutral	$5.27B	-5.99	-59.13%	―	―	11.14%
RDW	51 Neutral	$1.39B	-2.71	-50.08%	―	-0.63%	-163.11%
SPCE	48 Neutral	$186.48M	-0.35	-98.87%	―	-82.36%	56.88%
EVTL	45 Neutral	$411.85M	-0.45	―	―	―	―

Redwire Corporate Events

Redwire Strengthens Liquidity with New Credit Facilities

On February 20, 2026, Redwire Defense Tech Intermediate Holdings, a wholly owned subsidiary of Redwire, amended and restated its 2025 credit agreement, putting in place a $30 million revolving credit facility with a $10 million swingline and a new $90 million term loan, both maturing on May 31, 2029. The facilities bear interest based on SOFR or a base rate plus a margin tied to leverage, are guaranteed by Redwire subsidiaries, and are secured by first-priority liens, imposing customary covenants on additional debt, asset sales and dividends.

On the same date, the company fully repaid and terminated its Adams Street Credit Agreement, which was scheduled to mature on April 28, 2027, without incurring termination penalties, simplifying its capital structure. Management said these refinancing actions, along with 2025 ATM-driven debt repayment, materially strengthened liquidity and are expected to reduce annual interest expense, supporting Redwire’s transition from development programs toward higher-margin production work.

For the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, Redwire reported revenue growth to $108.8 million for the quarter and $335.4 million for the year, achieving the top end of its 2025 revenue guidance range and ending with record contracted backlog of $411.2 million and a book-to-bill ratio of 1.32. The company highlighted wins in Very Low Earth Orbit, including a $44 million DARPA Otter phase 2 award, an eight-figure docking systems deal with The Exploration Company, expanded ISS payload activity, and integration of Edge Autonomy’s uncrewed aerial systems business.

Despite stronger top-line performance and a 103.2% increase in total liquidity to $130.2 million at year-end 2025, Redwire’s net loss widened to $226.6 million for the year and $85.5 million for the quarter, reflecting more than $130 million and $40 million, respectively, in non-recurring items and negative EAC adjustments on development programs. Adjusted EBITDA fell to negative $50.3 million for 2025 and negative $18.1 million in the fourth quarter, underscoring the challenge of converting strong demand into profitability even as management positions the business for margin improvement as programs move into production.

The most recent analyst rating on (RDW) stock is a Hold with a $11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Redwire stock, see the RDW Stock Forecast page.

Redwire Announces Board Changes and New Segment Presidents

On February 11, 2026, Redwire director Raphael “Ray” Thomas Wallander resigned from the Board, and the company emphasized that his departure did not stem from any disagreement over its operations, policies or practices. The Board expressed gratitude for his service and noted that he had joined in July 2025 as a Bain designee under a now-expired nomination right.

On February 12, 2026, director David Kornblatt confirmed that his previously announced resignation will take effect on March 3, 2026, also without any dispute related to company matters. In response, Redwire’s Board plans to appoint a new Chair and new members to its Audit and Nominating and Corporate Governance committees, signaling a meaningful refresh of its governance structure.

The Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee is actively evaluating candidates to fill the Board vacancies created by these resignations. This search process is likely to shape Redwire’s strategic oversight and could influence the company’s direction in both its space and defense technology businesses.

Also on February 12, 2026, the Board appointed Mike Gold as President, Space, and Steve Adlich as President, Defense Tech, with both roles effective immediately. These leadership changes indicate a clearer operational focus on Redwire’s core space and defense segments and may affect how the company executes its growth strategy and serves key customers.

The most recent analyst rating on (RDW) stock is a Hold with a $11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Redwire stock, see the RDW Stock Forecast page.