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Redwire
(NYSE:RDW)
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Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$10.00
▲(15.07% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/15/26
RDW’s score is held back primarily by weak financial performance—deep losses and significant negative free cash flow—alongside bearish technicals with the stock trading below major moving averages. Offsetting these are a notably positive earnings-call setup (reaffirmed high-growth guidance, record backlog and strong bookings, and meaningful gross-margin improvement) plus modestly supportive liquidity/governance events, but execution and funding/dilution risks remain central.
Positive Factors
Record backlog and strong bookings
A near-$500M backlog and a 1.92 book-to-bill provide multi-quarter revenue visibility and de-risk near-term topline execution. High recent bookings mean contracted work fuels sustained revenue growth and supports the company's FY26 guidance and program cadence.
Negative Factors
Sizable negative cash flow profile
Persistent negative operating and free cash flow erode runway and require continual external financing until operations become cash-generative. Ongoing cash consumption limits optionality, increases refinancing risk, and can force dilution or spending cuts if improvements stall.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Record backlog and strong bookings
A near-$500M backlog and a 1.92 book-to-bill provide multi-quarter revenue visibility and de-risk near-term topline execution. High recent bookings mean contracted work fuels sustained revenue growth and supports the company's FY26 guidance and program cadence.
Read all positive factors
Redwire Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Book to Bill
Compares the number of new orders received to the number of orders fulfilled, indicating demand strength and operational efficiency. A ratio above one suggests growth potential, while below one may signal declining demand.
Compares the number of new orders received to the number of orders fulfilled, indicating demand strength and operational efficiency. A ratio above one suggests growth potential, while below one may signal declining demand.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyRedwire (RDW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.02B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)23.84M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.90
Revenue Growth33.58%
EPS Growth-18.98%
CountryUS
Employees1,410
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.68
Shares Outstanding238,825,350
10 Day Avg. Volume15,897,454
30 Day Avg. Volume23,841,048
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.12
Price to Book (P/B)0.86
Price to Sales (P/S)2.71
P/FCF Ratio-4.76
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$17.60Price Target Upside102.53% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.87
Revenue Forecast (FY)$471.13M
Redwire Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Redwire Corporation provides critical space solutions and space infrastructure for government and commercial customers in the United States, Europe, and internationally. It operates in two segments Space and Defense Tech. The company offers sensor...
How the Company Makes Money
Redwire primarily makes money by delivering space hardware, integrated subsystems, and mission solutions to government and commercial customers under contracts and purchase orders. Key revenue streams generally include: (1) Product and subsystem s...
Redwire Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and commercial momentum: high revenue growth (+57.9% YoY), a large increase in backlog ($498.1M, +71.1% YoY), materially improved gross margins (26.6%, +11.9 pts YoY), solid bookings and several strategic contract wins (Andromeda IDIQ, QKDSat, ELSA sale, Stalker orders). Liquidity and refinancing actions also improved the balance sheet. Offsetting these positives were a sizable reported net loss driven largely by non‑recurring acquisition‑related charges, negative adjusted EBITDA in the quarter, and elevated IRAD/investment spend compressing near‑term profitability as the company invests in growth. Overall, the highlights — strong top‑line growth, backlog, margin recovery, liquidity and meaningful contract awards — meaningfully outweigh the near‑term profitability and acquisition‑related headwinds, supporting a constructive outlook while noting execution and funding risks.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Total revenue of $97.0M in Q1 2026, a 57.9% year‑over‑year increase; Space revenue $52.7M and Defense Tech revenue $44.3M.
Negative Updates
Large Reported Net Loss
Reported net loss of $76.5M for Q1 2026, materially impacted by >$44M of non‑recurring items, including a $42.5M noncash, non‑dilutive accelerated vesting charge tied to the Edge Autonomy acquisition.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue Growth
Total revenue of $97.0M in Q1 2026, a 57.9% year‑over‑year increase; Space revenue $52.7M and Defense Tech revenue $44.3M.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Redwire reaffirmed full‑year 2026 revenue guidance of $450–$500 million (midpoint ≈ 41.6% YoY growth) and expects revenue to build through the year supported by more than $350 million in bookings over the last two quarters, Q1 bookings of $186.5 million (Q1 book‑to‑bill 1.92; LTM 1.54) and a record backlog of $498.1 million (up 21.1% sequential, 71.1% YoY; Space $359.7M, Defense Tech $138.4M). In Q1 the company reported $97.0 million of revenue (+57.9% YoY), gross margin of 26.6% (up 11.9 pts YoY, 17 pts sequential), a net loss of $76.5 million (including >$44M of nonrecurring items, $42.5M noncash from accelerated equity vesting) and adjusted EBITDA of negative $9.2 million (sequential improvement), while ramping R&D/IRAD to $12.6M in Q1 (from < $1M a year ago). Liquidity and cash metrics underpinning the guidance include total liquidity of $175.2 million ($145.2M cash/restricted cash + $30M undrawn revolver), net cash used in operating activities of $6.7M, quarterly free cash flow improvement of >$36M YoY and $17M sequential, a credit amendment extending maturity to May 2029 and lowering spread from SOFR+700 to SOFR+375 (≈ $3M annualized interest savings; >$17M estimated annual savings from recent delevering/refinancing), and an at‑the‑market program to opportunistically fund targeted investments.Redwire Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
22
Negative
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 370.96M | 335.38M | 304.10M | 243.80M | 160.55M | 137.60M |
| Gross Profit | 34.05M | 17.29M | 44.45M | 57.97M | 28.70M | 29.38M |
| EBITDA | -214.30M | -179.22M | -21.40M | -4.81M | -35.30M | -32.99M |
| Net Income | -300.11M | -226.55M | -114.31M | -27.26M | -130.62M | -61.54M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.51B | 1.45B | 292.62M | 271.27M | 257.70M | 261.76M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 145.21M | 95.18M | 49.07M | 30.28M | 28.32M | 20.52M |
| Total Debt | 208.92M | 231.30M | 144.98M | 105.83M | 95.08M | 78.55M |
| Total Liabilities | 423.61M | 389.12M | 344.53M | 218.44M | 187.81M | 154.53M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.09B | 1.06B | -51.91M | 52.60M | 69.66M | 107.22M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -160.97M | -190.81M | -23.75M | -7.10M | -35.81M | -40.22M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -139.92M | -177.33M | -17.35M | 1.23M | -31.66M | -37.36M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -177.05M | -175.07M | -7.20M | -8.33M | -37.38M | -38.54M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 407.38M | 397.50M | 43.72M | 9.06M | 76.56M | 74.21M |
Redwire Technical Analysis
Negative
8.69
Price Trends
13.47
Negative
11.74
Negative
10.02
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.31
Negative
36.39
Neutral
40.45
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RDW, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.69 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.28, below the 50-day MA of 13.47, and below the 200-day MA of 10.02, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.31 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 36.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RDW.
Redwire Risk Analysis
Redwire disclosed 65 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Redwire reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Redwire Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
51 Neutral | $2.02B | -3.22 | -29.03% | ― | 33.58% | -18.98% | |
51 Neutral | $38.69B | -198.68 | -12.26% | ― | 45.83% | 19.99% | |
50 Neutral | $3.60B | -4.22 | -38.99% | ― | ― | 11.41% | |
48 Neutral | $2.66B | -13.87 | 26.62% | ― | 53.99% | 58.32% | |
46 Neutral | $343.10M | -0.59 | -105.02% | ― | -76.23% | 63.55% | |
39 Underperform | $165.53M | -0.30 | 251.21% | ― | ― | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
RDW
Redwire
8.62
-5.25
-37.85%
SPCE
Virgin Galactic Holdings
2.55
-1.13
-30.71%
EVTL
Vertical Aerospace
1.24
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-78.69%
RKLB
Rocket Lab USA
64.95
20.14
44.95%
ACHR
Archer Aviation
4.64
-5.00
-51.87%
LUNR
Intuitive Machines
12.34
1.73
16.31%
Redwire Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Redwire appoints new independent director to board
Positive
Jul 15, 2026
On July 10, 2026, Redwire Corporation’s board appointed retired Ernst Young audit partner Gregory L. Heston to fill a vacancy created by the previously announced resignation of director David Kornblatt, marking a change in the company’...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Redwire Expands Revolving Credit Facility, Boosts Liquidity
Positive
Jul 1, 2026
On June 30, 2026, Redwire Defense Tech Intermediate Holdings, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Redwire Corporation, amended its Amended and Restated Credit Agreement to increase commitments under its revolving credit facility from $30 million to ...
Business Operations and StrategyLegal Proceedings
Redwire Reaches Preliminary Settlement in Derivative Lawsuit
Positive
Jun 18, 2026
On June 8, 2026, the U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Florida granted preliminary approval for a proposed settlement of shareholder derivative claims brought on behalf of Redwire against several current and former directors and offic...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Redwire Establishes Expanded At-The-Market Equity Program
Positive
Jun 9, 2026
On June 9, 2026, Redwire Corporation entered into a new equity distribution agreement with a syndicate of investment banks, enabling the company to sell up to $500 million of common stock through at-the-market offerings, block trades, and privatel...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Redwire Shareholders Approve Directors, Auditor and Executive Pay
Positive
May 20, 2026
On May 20, 2026, Redwire Corporation held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where a quorum was established with holders of 133,710,048 shares of common and Series A preferred stock present or represented by proxy. Shareholders elected three...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.