Redwire (RDW)
NYSE:RDW
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Redwire
(NYSE:RDW)
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Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$8.50
▼(-11.92% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/18/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance, driven by worsening margins and significant cash burn. Offsetting that, the earnings call indicated strong demand/backlog and an aggressive 2026 revenue outlook with improved liquidity and deleveraging, while technicals and valuation remain mixed due to neutral momentum and ongoing losses.
Positive Factors
Record backlog & strong bookings
A $411.2M contracted backlog and >1.3 book-to-bill provide multi-quarter revenue visibility and reduce near-term sales volatility. For a contract-driven aerospace supplier, a large booked backlog supports planned production ramps and underpins the 2026 revenue guide, improving predictability.
Negative Factors
Sharp cash burn
Large negative OCF and FCF in 2025 indicate persistent cash burn that elevates funding risk. Even with improved liquidity, ongoing outflows constrain reinvestment, increase reliance on credit/equity raises, and could force trade-offs between R&D, production scale-up, and working capital.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Record backlog & strong bookings
A $411.2M contracted backlog and >1.3 book-to-bill provide multi-quarter revenue visibility and reduce near-term sales volatility. For a contract-driven aerospace supplier, a large booked backlog supports planned production ramps and underpins the 2026 revenue guide, improving predictability.
Read all positive factors
Redwire (RDW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.85B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)17.43M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.76
Revenue Growth-0.63%
EPS Growth-163.11%
CountryUS
Employees750
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.58
Shares Outstanding191,975,800
10 Day Avg. Volume19,003,231
30 Day Avg. Volume17,427,993
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.35
Price to Book (P/B)0.86
Price to Sales (P/S)2.71
P/FCF Ratio-4.76
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.93
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.14
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit99.69
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-10.80
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.50Price Target Upside39.90% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.52
Revenue Forecast (FY)$471.46M
Redwire Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Redwire Corporation, a space infrastructure company, develops, manufactures, and sells mission critical space solutions and components for national security, civil, and commercial space markets in the United States, Luxembourg, Germany, South Kore...
How the Company Makes Money
Redwire makes money primarily by selling space hardware, subsystems, and related engineering/integration services under customer contracts. Revenue is largely generated through (1) product and subsystem sales (e.g., spacecraft components such as a...
Redwire Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Book to Bill
Compares the number of new orders received to the number of orders fulfilled, indicating demand strength and operational efficiency. A ratio above one suggests growth potential, while below one may signal declining demand.
Compares the number of new orders received to the number of orders fulfilled, indicating demand strength and operational efficiency. A ratio above one suggests growth potential, while below one may signal declining demand.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyRedwire Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong commercial momentum: record backlog ($411.2M), robust Q4 bookings and book-to-bill (1.52), balanced segment revenue, a transformational acquisition (Edge Autonomy), materially improved liquidity ($130.2M) and substantial deleveraging with estimated annual interest savings >$17M. Management also introduced new products (ELSA), announced multiple contract awards, and provided a bullish 2026 revenue guide ($450M–$500M, ~41.6% YoY at midpoint). Offsetting these positives are significant near-term profitability pressures — a low reported gross margin (9.6% in Q4), sizable nonrecurring charges that produced an $85.5M Q4 net loss (including a $34.7M goodwill impairment), negative adjusted EBITDA, and timing headwinds from the U.S. government budget process. Overall, while there are meaningful short-term financial challenges, the operational wins, backlog, balance sheet improvements, and strong 2026 guidance indicate that positive progress and growth potential outweigh the near-term negatives.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth — Full Year and Q4 2025
Full-year 2025 revenue increased 10.3% year-over-year to $335.4 million (near the top end of guidance $320M–$340M). Fourth-quarter 2025 revenue was $108.8 million, representing a 56.4% quarterly year-over-year increase.
Negative Updates
Low Reported Gross Margin
Reported fourth-quarter 2025 gross margin was 9.6%, which management acknowledged is abnormally low. Management stated that excluding unfavorable EAC impacts of $17.8 million, gross margin would have been in the mid-20% range.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth — Full Year and Q4 2025
Full-year 2025 revenue increased 10.3% year-over-year to $335.4 million (near the top end of guidance $320M–$340M). Fourth-quarter 2025 revenue was $108.8 million, representing a 56.4% quarterly year-over-year increase.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Redwire guided full‑year 2026 revenue of $450–$500 million (midpoint +41.6% YoY) and said revenue should build through the year given lingering government timing impacts; that outlook is supported by a record backlog of $411.2 million (Space $299.8M; Defense Tech $111.4M), Q4 bookings of $164.9M (Q4 book‑to‑bill 1.52; FY2025 book‑to‑bill 1.32), and Q4 revenue of $108.8M (Space $54.5M; Defense Tech $54.3M) versus FY2025 revenue of $335.4M (+10.3% YoY). Management noted year‑end total liquidity of $130.2M (cash $94.5M, $35M undrawn revolver, ~$1M restricted), that roughly 50% of the 2026 guide is already in backlog, and expectations for gross‑margin improvement as programs move from development to production (Q4 gross margin 9.6%, but mid‑20s% excluding $17.8M of EACs); they also flagged Q4 adjusted EBITDA of negative $18.1M, a Q4 net loss of $85.5M (including a $34.7M goodwill impairment), and estimated annualized interest savings of >$17M after repaying net $125.5M of debt.Redwire Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
22
Negative
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 335.38M | 304.10M | 243.80M | 160.55M | 137.60M |
| Gross Profit | 17.29M | 44.45M | 57.97M | 28.70M | 29.38M |
| EBITDA | -179.22M | -21.40M | -4.81M | -35.30M | -32.99M |
| Net Income | -226.55M | -114.31M | -27.26M | -130.62M | -61.54M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.45B | 292.62M | 271.27M | 257.70M | 261.76M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 95.18M | 49.07M | 30.28M | 28.32M | 20.52M |
| Total Debt | 231.30M | 144.98M | 105.83M | 95.08M | 78.55M |
| Total Liabilities | 389.12M | 344.53M | 218.44M | 187.81M | 154.53M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.06B | -51.91M | 52.60M | 69.66M | 107.22M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -190.81M | -23.75M | -7.10M | -35.81M | -40.22M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -177.33M | -17.35M | 1.23M | -31.66M | -37.36M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -175.07M | -7.20M | -8.33M | -37.38M | -38.54M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 397.50M | 43.72M | 9.06M | 76.56M | 74.21M |
Redwire Technical Analysis
Positive
9.65
Price Trends
9.50
Positive
8.61
Positive
9.84
Negative
Market Momentum
<0.01
Negative
53.91
Neutral
89.17
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RDW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.65 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.25, above the 50-day MA of 9.50, and below the 200-day MA of 9.84, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.17 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RDW.
Redwire Risk Analysis
Redwire disclosed 65 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Redwire reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Redwire Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
59 Neutral | $4.93B | -23.25 | 23.46% | ― | 8.07% | 33.37% | |
51 Neutral | $1.85B | -4.01 | -29.10% | ― | -0.63% | -163.11% | |
50 Neutral | $37.76B | -186.77 | -19.23% | ― | 52.42% | -1.33% | |
47 Neutral | $3.98B | -7.59 | -37.76% | ― | ― | 11.14% | |
44 Neutral | $243.41M | -0.82 | -107.75% | ― | -82.36% | 56.88% | |
43 Neutral | $223.08M | 1.54 | -174.08% | ― | ― | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
RDW
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9.65
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Redwire Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Redwire Adds National Security Veteran to Board Leadership
Positive
Mar 17, 2026
On March 12, 2026, Redwire’s board appointed former U.S. Air Force space acquisition chief Frank Calvelli as a Class III director to fill a board vacancy, with his term running until the 2027 annual meeting. The board determined he is indepe...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Redwire Strengthens Liquidity with New Credit Facilities
Negative
Feb 25, 2026
On February 20, 2026, Redwire Defense Tech Intermediate Holdings, a wholly owned subsidiary of Redwire, amended and restated its 2025 credit agreement, putting in place a $30 million revolving credit facility with a $10 million swingline and a new...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Redwire Announces Board Changes and New Segment Presidents
Neutral
Feb 17, 2026
On February 11, 2026, Redwire director Raphael “Ray” Thomas Wallander resigned from the Board, and the company emphasized that his departure did not stem from any disagreement over its operations, policies or practices. The Board expre...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.