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Redwire (RDW)
NYSE:RDW
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Redwire (RDW) AI Stock Analysis

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RDW

Redwire

(NYSE:RDW)

Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$18.00
▲(6.38%Upside)
Redwire's overall stock score reflects a company with significant financial challenges but promising strategic initiatives. The most impactful factor is the financial instability, with negative equity and liquidity concerns. However, strong strategic execution and recent acquisitions provide potential for future growth, balancing some of the financial risks.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
RDW shares are expected to respond favorably as the company executes against its 2025 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance, moving toward the $26 price target.
Product Integration
Redwire offers an end-to-end solution with encrypted data transfer from drones to satellites, enhancing its competitive edge in the defense market.
Strategic Acquisitions
The Edge Autonomy acquisition positions Redwire in areas of growing demand, improving its positioning in both space and national defense, two areas expected to see increasing demand and investment.
Negative Factors
Executive Transition Challenges
Delays and disruptions within the U.S. market are due to turnover during the transition in the Executive branch.
Financial Performance Concerns
Financial performance remains tenuous, and growth fell last quarter.
Market Competition
Downside risks to the rating and price target include more growth headwinds for Edge due to a more challenging competitive environment within the defense autonomy space.

Redwire (RDW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Redwire Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionRedwire Corporation (RDW) is a leading provider of mission-critical space solutions and high-reliability components for the next generation space economy. The company operates in the aerospace sector, focusing on space infrastructure, including advanced sensors, components, and systems designed for space exploration, satellite servicing, space-based manufacturing, and other innovative space applications. Redwire's offerings cater to a diverse range of clients, including government agencies, commercial businesses, and defense sectors, supporting a variety of space missions and projects.
How the Company Makes MoneyRedwire generates revenue through the sale of its advanced space technologies and infrastructure solutions. The company offers a broad range of products and services, including satellite components, space sensors, and on-orbit servicing equipment, which are sold to government space agencies, defense organizations, and commercial space enterprises. Key revenue streams include contracts and partnerships with NASA, the Department of Defense, and private aerospace companies, enabling the development and deployment of space missions. Additionally, Redwire capitalizes on the growing demand for space manufacturing and research, providing specialized equipment and technology to facilitate these activities. Strategic acquisitions and collaborations also play a significant role in enhancing their product offerings and expanding market reach, contributing to the company's financial performance.

Redwire Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Book to Bill
Book to Bill
Compares the number of new orders received to the number of orders fulfilled, indicating demand strength and operational efficiency. A ratio above one suggests growth potential, while below one may signal declining demand.
Chart InsightsRedwire's book-to-bill ratio has shown volatility, with notable peaks at the end of 2022 and 2023, but it remains below one for most of 2024. This indicates challenges in converting proposals into contracts, despite a significant increase in submitted proposals. The earnings call highlights strategic investments and a strong proposal pipeline, suggesting potential future growth. However, the current low book-to-bill ratio reflects execution risks and profitability challenges, underscoring the need for improved contract conversion to sustain momentum.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Redwire Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 49.60%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant strategic progress and financial improvements, including strong contract awards, enhanced liquidity, and successful execution of growth strategies. However, revenue decline and challenges in the U.S. Government market were noted. Despite these issues, the overall sentiment remains positive due to the outweighing highlights, including an improved financial position and strategic partnerships.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Contract Awards and Backlog
Contract awards during the first quarter of 2025 were $56.2 million with a book-to-bill ratio of 0.92 times, showing an improvement both sequentially and year-over-year. Backlog remained relatively flat at $291.2 million, with 37% from international operations.
Successful Execution of Growth Strategy
Redwire executed key elements of its 2025 growth strategy, including a contract for docking systems with Thales Alenia Space, a study contract for the ARRAKIHS dark matter mission, and a significant partnership with i-space-U.S. for lunar exploration.
Improved Financial Position
Sequential improvement in adjusted EBITDA from negative $9.2 million in Q4 2024 to negative $2.3 million in Q1 2025, and a significant improvement in net loss by more than $60 million.
Record Level Available Liquidity
Redwire ended the quarter with a record level of available liquidity at $89.2 million, a 39.2% improvement over the previous year.
Edge Autonomy Acquisition Progress
Announced the acquisition of Edge Autonomy expecting it to transform Redwire into a leader in multi-domain autonomous technology.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline
Redwire recorded revenues of $61.4 million, a decrease both sequentially and year-over-year. Delays in awards across various customer classes, particularly in the U.S.
Challenges in U.S. Government Market
Notable delays in awards in the U.S. Government market due to transitions of key decision makers and budget uncertainty with the new administration.
Company Guidance
During the Redwire Corporation's first quarter 2025 earnings call, CEO Peter Cannito highlighted several key metrics and strategic priorities for the year. Redwire's contract awards for Q1 totaled $56.2 million with a book-to-bill ratio of 0.92 times, and the backlog remained stable at $291.2 million as of March 31, 2025. The company is focusing on a 52.9% compound annual growth rate for revenue from fiscal year 2023 to 2025, targeting a range of $535 million to $605 million for the full year, and an adjusted EBITDA between $70 million and $105 million. The strategic growth areas include providing "picks and shovels" like docking systems, exploring the moon and Mars, and expanding through accretive M&A, such as the acquisition of Edge Autonomy, which is expected to close in Q2 2025. Redwire's financial performance showed improvement with a net loss of $2.9 million and adjusted EBITDA moving from a negative $9.2 million in Q4 2024 to negative $2.3 million in Q1 2025. The company maintains a strong liquidity position with $89.2 million, despite challenges such as EAC impacts and dynamic market conditions.

Redwire Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Redwire's financial statements indicate significant financial instability and challenges. The income statement shows declining revenue and deeply negative profit margins, highlighting operational inefficiencies. The balance sheet suggests high leverage and potential solvency issues due to negative equity. Cash flows are negative, indicating liquidity challenges and reliance on external financing.
Income Statement
40
Negative
Redwire's income statement reveals significant challenges. The TTM revenue has decreased compared to the previous year, indicating negative revenue growth. Gross profit margin fell significantly, with the most recent TTM showing a slight margin, but net profit margins remain deeply negative due to substantial losses. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also been negative, reflecting operational inefficiencies. Overall, the income statement highlights ongoing struggles with profitability and revenue growth.
Balance Sheet
30
Negative
The balance sheet indicates financial instability. The debt-to-equity ratio is not meaningful due to negative equity, suggesting high leverage and potential solvency issues. The negative stockholders' equity reflects accumulated losses exceeding asset values. The equity ratio is also negative, further signaling financial distress. Despite some asset growth, liabilities have increased, exacerbating financial risk. Redwire's balance sheet portrays a company facing high financial leverage and potential solvency challenges.
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
Redwire's cash flow statement shows negative operating and free cash flows, impacting liquidity. The free cash flow has worsened compared to previous periods, indicating increasing cash burn. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, consistent with the company's losses. While financing activities have provided cash inflows, reliance on external financing raises concerns about sustainability. Overall, Redwire's cash flow position underscores liquidity challenges and dependence on external funding.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue304.10M243.80M160.55M137.60M57.44M
Gross Profit44.45M57.97M28.70M29.38M12.14M
EBITDA-91.16M-6.33M-118.82M-55.77M-15.44M
Net Income-114.31M-27.26M-130.62M-61.54M-15.71M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets292.62M271.27M257.70M261.76M156.77M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments49.07M30.28M28.32M20.52M22.08M
Total Debt144.98M105.83M95.08M78.55M79.54M
Total Liabilities344.53M218.44M264.17M154.53M117.58M
Stockholders Equity-188.71M52.60M-6.70M107.22M39.20M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-23.75M-6.54M-35.81M-40.22M-13.65M
Operating Cash Flow-17.35M1.23M-31.66M-37.36M-12.49M
Investing Cash Flow-7.20M-8.33M-37.38M-38.54M-85.57M
Financing Cash Flow43.72M9.06M76.56M74.21M124.07M

Redwire Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price16.92
Price Trends
50DMA
15.86
Positive
100DMA
13.21
Positive
200DMA
13.71
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.44
Positive
RSI
51.12
Neutral
STOCH
32.77
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RDW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.62, above the 50-day MA of 15.86, and above the 200-day MA of 13.71, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.44 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RDW.

Redwire Risk Analysis

Redwire disclosed 57 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Redwire reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Redwire Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
73
Outperform
$2.08B-22.54%9.52%24.27%
68
Neutral
$1.34B38.525.25%3.02%95.76%
67
Neutral
$1.23B-1.35%13.73%86.81%
65
Neutral
€9.31B16.453.99%2.99%2.81%-19.06%
59
Neutral
$2.41B-451.56%1.36%-213.86%
50
Neutral
$813.45M-42.87%102.32%13.67%
49
Neutral
$7.20B-73.89%17.43%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
RDW
Redwire
16.92
10.00
144.51%
ATRO
Astronics
34.68
12.46
56.08%
DCO
Ducommun
89.85
26.98
42.91%
SKYH
Sky Harbour Group
10.72
1.01
10.40%
ACHR
Archer Aviation
11.36
6.96
158.18%
PL
Planet Labs PBC
6.86
4.47
187.03%

Redwire Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Redwire Appoints New Board Members Amid Leadership Changes
Neutral
Jul 15, 2025

Redwire Corporation announced the appointment of Michael Greene and Raphael Wallander to its Board of Directors, effective July 11, 2025, following the resignations of Les Daniels and Michael Bevacqua. Greene, associated with AE Industrial Partners, and Wallander, owner of Maxwell Bay Advisors, bring extensive experience in investment and corporate management to the board. Their appointments are linked to specific investment agreements, and both will serve terms expiring in 2026 and 2027, respectively. The company has confirmed there are no related transactions or relationships requiring disclosure.

The most recent analyst rating on (RDW) stock is a Buy with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Redwire stock, see the RDW Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesM&A Transactions
Redwire Announces Board Resignations Post-Acquisition
Neutral
Jul 2, 2025

Redwire Corporation announced the resignation of certain board members following its acquisition of Edge Autonomy Intermediate Holdings, LLC and its subsidiaries. On June 26, 2025, Michael J. Bevacqua resigned, followed by David Kornblatt and Les Daniels on July 1, 2025. These resignations were made to facilitate the appointment of new directors and were not due to any disagreements with the company’s operations or policies.

The most recent analyst rating on (RDW) stock is a Buy with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Redwire stock, see the RDW Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingM&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Redwire Announces $260 Million Stock Offering Completion
Neutral
Jun 18, 2025

On June 16, 2025, Redwire Corporation announced a common stock offering, selling 15,525,000 shares for approximately $260 million, which closed on June 18, 2025. The proceeds are intended for working capital, corporate uses, and the acquisition of Edge Autonomy. Redwire’s acquisition of Edge Autonomy, completed on June 13, 2025, expands its operations into the emerging UAS market, though it faces competition and regulatory challenges. The acquisition also exposes Redwire to new risks, including geopolitical factors affecting Edge Autonomy’s sales, particularly in Ukraine.

The most recent analyst rating on (RDW) stock is a Buy with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Redwire stock, see the RDW Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingM&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
Redwire Completes Acquisition of Edge Autonomy
Positive
Jun 13, 2025

On June 13, 2025, Redwire Corporation completed its acquisition of Edge Autonomy for $925 million, funded through a combination of a $90 million credit agreement with JPMorgan Chase and a $100 million unsecured seller note. This acquisition, involving a mix of cash and stock, is expected to enhance Redwire’s market position in the aerospace and defense sector by integrating Edge Autonomy’s advanced technologies and expanding its customer base. The transaction included a special meeting of stockholders where the merger was approved, and an amended investor rights agreement was established to manage board representation and stockholder rights.

The most recent analyst rating on (RDW) stock is a Buy with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Redwire stock, see the RDW Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingM&A Transactions
Redwire Amends Merger Agreement with Edge Autonomy
Positive
Jun 9, 2025

On June 8, 2025, Redwire Corporation announced an amendment to its merger agreement to acquire Edge Autonomy for $925 million. The amended terms include $160 million in cash and $765 million in Redwire common stock, with a holdback of $5 million in shares for post-closing adjustments. The merger is subject to stockholder approval, and Redwire has secured commitments for $90 million in debt financing to facilitate the transaction. The company also amended its credit facility to extend its maturity date and adjust interest rates. The acquisition aims to enhance Redwire’s position in the space infrastructure industry by integrating Edge Autonomy’s uncrewed airborne system technology.

The most recent analyst rating on (RDW) stock is a Buy with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Redwire stock, see the RDW Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Redwire Holds 2025 Annual Shareholders Meeting
Neutral
May 21, 2025

On May 21, 2025, Redwire Corporation held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Shareholders. During this meeting, shareholders elected Class III directors to serve until the 2028 Annual Meeting, ratified the appointment of KPMG LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025, and approved an amendment to the Company’s Certificate of Incorporation to limit the personal liability of certain officers for monetary damages for breach of fiduciary duty.

The most recent analyst rating on (RDW) stock is a Buy with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Redwire stock, see the RDW Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 22, 2025