Redwire (RDW) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.39B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 28.89M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.85
• Revenue Growth: -0.63%
• EPS Growth: -163.11%
• Country: US
• Employees: 750
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Aerospace & Defense
• EPS (TTM): -0.29
• Shares Outstanding: 165,150,790
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 15,638,638
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 28,894,636
• PEG Ratio: -0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): -20.97
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.58
• P/FCF Ratio: -45.85
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.17
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 5.47
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 142.02
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -15.33
• 1Y Price Target: $15.00
• Price Target Upside: 87.73% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.37
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $457.08M

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $11.50 ▲(43.93% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 01/28/26
• Date: Action: Upgraded 01/28/26

The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (large losses and negative operating/free cash flow). Technicals are a meaningful positive with strong trend/momentum, and the latest earnings call showed improving adjusted profitability and backlog/book-to-bill strength, but guidance was tempered by government-shutdown timing risk. Valuation provides limited support due to the negative P/E and no dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Backlog & Book-to-Bill

A 1.25 book-to-bill and $355.6M backlog provide multi-quarter revenue visibility and support sustained program execution. This backlog reduces near-term demand risk, aids capacity planning and underpins predictable revenue conversion across government and commercial programs.

Access to Large Defense IDIQ

Being a named awardee on a large, multi-year defense IDIQ opens a durable addressable market for follow-on task orders. While awards aren’t guaranteed, IDIQ access positions the company to compete for sizable, recurring defense work that can sustain revenue over multiple fiscal cycles.

Strategic Partnerships & Commercial Programs

Contracts with commercial platform providers and targeted partnerships diversify revenue beyond government programs. Participation in commercial space infrastructure (solar arrays, VLEO, UAS) supports cross-market technology reuse and recurring subsystem opportunities, strengthening long-term growth prospects.

Negative Factors

Very Weak Profitability

Deep, persistent net losses and severely negative ROE indicate the business is not generating returns on equity. Structural profitability deficits constrain reinvestment, limit ability to self-fund growth, and require sustained margin recovery before realizing durable shareholder value.

Negative Operating & Free Cash Flow

Ongoing cash outflows from operations force reliance on external financing to fund working capital and capex. This constrains strategic flexibility and elevates dilution/financing risk, evidenced by a subsequent $250M equity distribution agreement to cover corporate needs.

Low Gross Margin & Margin Volatility

Very thin gross margins reflect high cost intensity or pricing pressure in core hardware/subsystems. Low baseline margins reduce the buffer for fixed costs and make profitability highly sensitive to contract mix, acquisition accounting and integration costs, challenging sustainable margin recovery.

Redwire Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Redwire Corporation, a space infrastructure company, develops, manufactures, and sells mission critical space solutions and components for national security, civil, and commercial space markets in the United States, Luxembourg, Germany, South Korea, Poland, and internationally. The company provides various antennas; and advanced sensors and components, which include solar arrays, composite booms, radio frequency antennas, payload adapters, space-qualifies camera systems, and star trackers and sun sensors. It also sells a proprietary enterprise software suite that enables digital engineering and generation of interactive modeling and simulations of individual components, entire spacecraft, and full constellations in a cloud-based Software as a Service business model. In addition, the company offers on-orbit servicing, assembly, and manufacturing solutions; and low-earth orbit commercialization, digitally engineered spacecraft, and space domain awareness and resiliency technology solutions. Redwire Corporation is headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

Redwire generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily focusing on contracts with government agencies, commercial partnerships, and space missions. The company earns income by providing engineering services and products for satellite development, manufacturing, and deployment. Key revenue streams include contracts with NASA and the Department of Defense for various space-related projects, as well as collaborations with private sector clients seeking advanced space technologies. Additionally, Redwire benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its capabilities and market reach, allowing it to tap into emerging opportunities in the expanding space economy.

Redwire Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement and cash flow remain the key weaknesses: very large net losses (TTM net margin -71.95%), extremely thin gross margin (2.53%), and negative operating/free cash flow. Balance sheet leverage looks manageable (debt-to-equity 0.42), but profitability (ROE -80.48%) is a major drag despite positive revenue growth (13.31% TTM).

Income Statement

Redwire's income statement shows a challenging financial position with a negative net profit margin of -71.95% in TTM, indicating significant losses relative to revenue. The gross profit margin is low at 2.53%, suggesting high costs relative to sales. However, there is a positive revenue growth rate of 13.31% TTM, indicating some top-line growth. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, reflecting operational inefficiencies and high non-cash expenses.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.42 in TTM, suggesting manageable leverage. However, the return on equity is negative at -80.48%, indicating that the company is not generating profits from shareholders' equity. The equity ratio is not directly provided, but the high total assets relative to equity suggest a stable asset base.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows negative operating cash flow and free cash flow in TTM, indicating cash outflows from operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive at 1.08, suggesting that cash flow is slightly better than net income, but still negative. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting cash flow challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Mar 2022	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	296.15M	304.10M	243.80M	160.55M	137.60M	57.44M
Gross Profit	11.41M	44.45M	57.97M	28.70M	29.38M	12.14M
EBITDA	-105.67M	-21.40M	-4.81M	-35.30M	-32.99M	-15.44M
Net Income	-208.25M	-114.31M	-27.26M	-130.62M	-61.54M	-15.71M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.45B	292.62M	271.27M	257.70M	261.76M	156.77M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	54.33M	49.07M	30.28M	28.32M	20.52M	22.08M
Total Debt	333.71M	144.98M	105.83M	95.08M	78.55M	79.54M
Total Liabilities	518.20M	344.53M	218.44M	187.81M	154.53M	117.58M
Stockholders Equity	928.04M	-51.91M	52.60M	69.66M	107.22M	39.20M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-162.31M	-23.75M	-7.10M	-35.81M	-40.22M	-13.65M
Operating Cash Flow	-146.00M	-17.35M	1.23M	-31.66M	-37.36M	-12.49M
Investing Cash Flow	-173.37M	-7.20M	-8.33M	-37.38M	-38.54M	-85.57M
Financing Cash Flow	330.36M	43.72M	9.06M	76.56M	74.21M	124.07M

Redwire Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 7.99
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RDW, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.20, below the 50-day MA of 9.42, and below the 200-day MA of 10.71, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.54 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RDW.

Redwire Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
RDW	58 Neutral	$1.39B	-2.71	-50.08%	―	-0.63%	-163.11%
RKLB	56 Neutral	$39.75B	-197.52	-23.24%	―	52.42%	-1.33%
LUNR	56 Neutral	$3.20B	-9.74	―	―	8.07%	33.37%
ACHR	55 Neutral	$5.11B	-6.10	-59.13%	―	―	11.14%
SPCE	48 Neutral	$182.82M	-0.34	-98.87%	―	-82.36%	56.88%
EVTL	45 Neutral	$442.39M	-0.50	―	―	―	―

Redwire Corporate Events

Redwire Enters Equity Distribution Agreement for $250M

On November 10, 2025, Redwire Corporation entered into an Equity Distribution Agreement with several securities firms, allowing the company to sell up to $250 million in common stock through at-the-market offerings. The proceeds from these sales are intended for general corporate purposes, including working capital and potential strategic investments, enhancing Redwire’s financial flexibility and positioning in the market.

The most recent analyst rating on (RDW) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Redwire stock, see the RDW Stock Forecast page.