Intuitive Machines (LUNR)
NASDAQ:LUNR
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Intuitive Machines
(NASDAQ:LUNR)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$31.00
▲(12.40% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/03/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (losses, negative free cash flow, and a stressed balance sheet with negative equity and higher debt). Offsetting that are strong technical momentum and a notably upbeat earnings outlook with large backlog and aggressive 2026 growth guidance, though execution and integration risks remain high. Valuation is less supportive given ongoing losses and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Significant Backlog
A combined backlog of ~ $943M provides multi-year revenue visibility and supports management's aggressive 2026 growth plan. Durable contract awards underpin capacity planning, reduce near-term demand cyclicality, and make revenue scaling more predictable as missions and milestone conversions occur.
Negative Factors
Negative Equity & Elevated Debt
Negative shareholders' equity and sharply higher debt create a structurally stressed capital structure that limits financial flexibility. This reduces the firm's cushion for cost overruns or program delays, increases refinancing and interest exposure, and can constrain contract bidding on capital‑intensive programs.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Significant Backlog
A combined backlog of ~ $943M provides multi-year revenue visibility and supports management's aggressive 2026 growth plan. Durable contract awards underpin capacity planning, reduce near-term demand cyclicality, and make revenue scaling more predictable as missions and milestone conversions occur.
Read all positive factors
Intuitive Machines (LUNR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.53B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)15.03M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.85
Revenue Growth-7.71%
EPS Growth84.50%
CountryUS
Employees435
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.28
Shares Outstanding159,372,570
10 Day Avg. Volume17,117,409
30 Day Avg. Volume15,025,074
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.27
Price to Book (P/B)-2.59
Price to Sales (P/S)9.22
P/FCF Ratio-34.61
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.70
Enterprise Value/Revenue18.37
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit148.11
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-50.22
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$25.63Price Target Upside-7.09% Downside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)$931.42M
Intuitive Machines Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Intuitive Machines, Inc. manufactures and supplies space products and services. It offers space products and services to support sustained robotic and human exploration to the moon, mars, and beyond. It offers its products and services through bus...
How the Company Makes Money
Intuitive Machines primarily generates revenue through contracted services and mission delivery work for customers, with a major focus on U.S. government programs. Key revenue streams include: (1) Lunar mission services and payload delivery: The c...
Intuitive Machines Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue across the company's business lines — for Intuitive Machines that typically means government/NASA contracts, commercial mission services, spacecraft hardware, and engineering/software services — showing which parts drive sales and margins. For investors, segment detail reveals how much revenue is milestone-driven and lumpy versus potentially recurring, highlights single-customer or program concentration, and signals sensitivity to launch schedules, technical delays, or contract timing. Tracking shifts between segments helps assess growth sustainability, margin trends, and the company's ability to diversify risk beyond one-off missions.
Breaks down revenue across the company's business lines — for Intuitive Machines that typically means government/NASA contracts, commercial mission services, spacecraft hardware, and engineering/software services — showing which parts drive sales and margins. For investors, segment detail reveals how much revenue is milestone-driven and lumpy versus potentially recurring, highlights single-customer or program concentration, and signals sensitivity to launch schedules, technical delays, or contract timing. Tracking shifts between segments helps assess growth sustainability, margin trends, and the company's ability to diversify risk beyond one-off missions.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyIntuitive Machines Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized a transformational outlook driven by strategic acquisitions (Lantaris, Kinetics), a major capital raise, strong programmatic wins (SDA Tranche 3), and ambitious 2026 revenue guidance (targeting ~$1B, ~5x growth). Operational highlights included improved gross margins (19% in Q4), successful launches/on-orbit milestones, and growing recurring-service contracts (NSNS). Offsetting these positives are near-term profitability pressures (wider operating loss, negative adjusted EBITDA), sizable acquisition and integration costs, reduced liquidity after the Lantaris cash outlay, backlog timing impacts from government shutdowns, and continued negative free cash flow in 2025. Management projects margin improvement and positive adjusted EBITDA in 2026, but the near-term financials remain loss-making and the combined-company pro forma is still pending.Positive Updates
Transformational M&A and Capital Raise
Closed acquisition of Lantaris (Jan 13, 2026) and earlier closed Kinetics (Oct 1, 2025). Completed a $175M strategic equity raise in February to support communications/data processing network investments and NSNS expansion.
Negative Updates
Q4 and Annual Profitability Pressures
Q4 operating loss widened to $33.1M (versus $13.4M loss prior year). Adjusted EBITDA was negative $19.1M in the quarter (vs. negative $11.2M last year). Management expects profitability improvement in 2026 but near-term results remain loss-making.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Transformational M&A and Capital Raise
Closed acquisition of Lantaris (Jan 13, 2026) and earlier closed Kinetics (Oct 1, 2025). Completed a $175M strategic equity raise in February to support communications/data processing network investments and NSNS expansion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For 2026 management guided revenue of $900 million to $1.0 billion (a nearly 5x step‑up from 2025), saying roughly two‑thirds of that 2026 revenue is already supported by contracted backlog; combined company backlog was ~$943 million as of February month‑end (year‑end backlog $213.1M, ~60–65% of which is expected to convert to 2026 revenue and 35–40% in 2027+). They are targeting continued margin improvement and a positive adjusted EBITDA for the full year (noting Q4 gross profit was $8.5M, a 19% gross margin, while Q4 revenue was $44.8M and Q4 adjusted EBITDA was negative $19.1M), and highlighted liquidity and capital actions to support the plan — year‑end cash $583M, ~$430M used for the Lantaris acquisition, a $175M strategic equity raise, and cash of ~$272M as of February — while FY free cash flow was negative $56M (an $11.7M improvement vs. 2024) after increased CapEx (Q4 CapEx $15.6M).Intuitive Machines Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
24
Negative
Balance Sheet
12
Very Negative
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 210.06M | 228.00M | 79.52M | 85.95M | 72.55M |
| Gross Profit | 32.81M | 37.63M | -20.95M | 10.43M | -27.76M |
| EBITDA | -83.63M | -50.49M | 48.46M | 38.78M | -37.05M |
| Net Income | -83.29M | -283.41M | 62.80M | -6.41M | -35.65M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 757.15M | 355.40M | 85.93M | 67.00M | 43.45M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 582.61M | 207.61M | 4.56M | 25.76M | 29.29M |
| Total Debt | 372.16M | 37.38M | 43.48M | 25.76M | 14.99M |
| Total Liabilities | 553.45M | 351.48M | 137.50M | 124.62M | 95.29M |
| Stockholders Equity | -748.35M | -1.00B | -233.23M | -57.62M | -51.84M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -55.95M | -67.70M | -75.19M | -15.62M | -19.74M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -14.32M | -57.59M | -45.28M | 784.00K | -16.57M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -56.58M | -10.11M | -29.91M | -16.41M | -3.18M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 446.59M | 272.79M | 53.92M | 12.10M | 25.11M |
Intuitive Machines Technical Analysis
Positive
27.58
Price Trends
19.27
Positive
17.38
Positive
13.95
Positive
Market Momentum
2.02
Negative
67.54
Neutral
84.90
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LUNR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 27.58 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.70, above the 50-day MA of 19.27, and above the 200-day MA of 13.95, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.90 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LUNR.
Intuitive Machines Risk Analysis
Intuitive Machines disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Intuitive Machines reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Intuitive Machines Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
59 Neutral | $5.53B | -23.25 | 23.46% | ― | -7.71% | 84.50% | |
56 Neutral | $1.93B | -4.01 | -29.10% | ― | 10.29% | -1.63% | |
55 Neutral | $45.88B | -186.77 | -19.23% | ― | 37.96% | 1.96% | |
50 Neutral | $9.80B | -21.68 | -6.41% | ― | 116.86% | -467.25% | |
47 Neutral | $301.77M | 1.54 | -174.08% | ― | ― | ― | |
47 Neutral | $964.80M | -5.44 | -225.72% | ― | ― | -45.97% |
* Industrials Sector Average
LUNR
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Intuitive Machines Corporate Events
Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Intuitive Machines Completes $175 Million Equity Financing Round
Positive
Feb 27, 2026
On February 27, 2026, Intuitive Machines, Inc. completed a previously announced $175 million equity financing through the issuance and sale of Class A common stock at $15.12 per share to a group of institutional investors. The transaction, governe...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Intuitive Machines Secures $175 Million Strategic Equity Investment
Positive
Feb 25, 2026
On February 25, 2026, Intuitive Machines entered into a definitive securities purchase agreement with a group of global institutional investors for a $175 million private equity investment via Class A common stock priced at $15.12 per share, with ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Intuitive Machines Awards Executive Bonuses Tied to Acquisitions
Positive
Feb 11, 2026
On February 5, 2026, Intuitive Machines, Inc. granted cash transaction bonuses of $512,750 to President and Chief Executive Officer Stephen Altemus and $247,500 to Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Peter McGrath. The awards were ma...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.