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Intuitive Machines (LUNR)
NASDAQ:LUNR
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Intuitive Machines
(NASDAQ:LUNR)
Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$11.00
▼(-6.06%Downside)
Positive Factors
Backlog and Revenue
In Q1, LUNR’s backlog jumped 22% y/y to ~$272M, of which management expects to recognize 45-50% as revenue in FY25.
Contracts and Partnerships
CEO Steve Artemis highlighted the $2.5M contract awarded by NASA to provide lunar logistics handling and offloading as well as surface cargo and mobility.
Financial Performance
Intuitive Machines generated FCF of $13.3M driven by the improved margin profile of the business and favorably timed milestone payments, marking the first positive FCF quarter in company history.
Negative Factors
Mission Challenges
The solar panels are receiving lower-than-expected sunlight because of the lander’s orientation, which could impact performance of mission objectives.
Operational Risks
NASA's payment for milestone achievements, despite collecting less data than previous missions, underlines the value of Intuitive Machines' services in lunar exploration.
Intuitive Machines (LUNR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.09B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)7.24M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)3.39
Revenue Growth61.57%
EPS Growth-246.41%
CountryUS
Employees435
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength91
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.10
Shares Outstanding117,330,850
10 Day Avg. Volume6,571,250
30 Day Avg. Volume7,238,104
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.31
Price to Book (P/B)-0.57
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-13.22
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.44
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.26
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit24.24
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-1.79
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$16.08Price Target Upside37.32% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
Intuitive Machines Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionIntuitive Machines (LUNR) is a pioneering aerospace company that operates primarily in the space exploration and technology sector. Specializing in lunar exploration, the company provides advanced space systems and services, including lunar landers and orbiters designed to facilitate scientific research and commercial activities on the Moon. With a strong emphasis on innovation and collaboration, Intuitive Machines aims to support both governmental and private sector efforts to expand human presence beyond Earth.
How the Company Makes MoneyIntuitive Machines makes money through a combination of government contracts, commercial partnerships, and service offerings related to lunar exploration and space technology. A significant portion of its revenue comes from contracts with agencies like NASA, where it provides lunar landers and related services to support lunar missions. Additionally, the company collaborates with commercial partners to offer transportation and data services for lunar payloads, enabling scientific and commercial activities on the Moon. These key revenue streams are bolstered by the company's expertise in aerospace engineering and its strategic partnerships with other industry leaders, which help to expand its market presence and drive earnings.
Intuitive Machines Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 23.26%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 19, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call showcased several positive developments, including revenue growth, cash flow positivity, and new contract awards. However, challenges such as the IM-2 mission's landing anomaly and increased SG&A expenses were also highlighted. While the company is progressing towards improved profitability, the balance of highlights and lowlights suggests a cautious optimism.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Sequential Revenue Growth
Q1 2025 revenue was $62.5 million, up 14% over Q4 2024, driven primarily by CLPS, LTVS, and NSNS execution.
Positive Free Cash Flow
For the first time in the company's history, Intuitive Machines achieved positive free cash flow of $13.3 million in Q1 2025.
Contract Awards and Backlog
Intuitive Machines secured new awards including an $18 million task order for NSNS and a $10 million grant from the Texas Space Commission. The company ended Q1 with a contracted backlog of $272.3 million.
NASA Contract Progression
In Q1, key milestones were achieved under NASA's NSNS contract, with $3 million recognized in revenue.
Successful Lunar Mission
The IM-2 mission was noted for landing further south on the moon than any previous mission, providing valuable operational data.
Negative Updates
IM-2 Mission Landing Anomaly
The IM-2 mission ended early due to a landing anomaly, with identified issues including laser altimeter interference and terrain and lighting effects.
Higher SG&A Expenses
SG&A expenses increased to $16.1 million due to annual incentive and stock compensation, slightly up from Q4 2024.
Contracted Backlog Reduction
Contracted backlog decreased from $328.3 million in Q4 2024 to $272.3 million in Q1 2025, as contracts awarded in 2024 are executed.
Adjusted EBITDA Loss
Adjusted EBITDA was negative $6.6 million in Q1 2025, though an improvement over Q4 2024.
Company Guidance
During the Intuitive Machines First Quarter 2025 Conference Call, the company provided guidance emphasizing their strategic focus on leveraging emerging federal opportunities, particularly in civil and national security space. They highlighted the President's budget request, which reinforces NASA's funding priorities and includes an additional $150 billion package from Congress to support Department of Defense initiatives. The company is advancing programs like CLPS, LTV, and NSNS, with three delivery procurements planned this year. They secured significant contracts, including a $10 million award from the Texas Space Commission for developing Earth reentry technology. Financially, Intuitive Machines reported a 14% revenue increase from Q4 2024 to $62.5 million and achieved positive free cash flow for the first time in their history. They maintain a strong cash position at $373.3 million, driven by warrant redemptions and milestone payments, and expect revenue guidance of $250-300 million for 2025 with a focus on achieving positive adjusted EBITDA by year-end.Intuitive Machines Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Intuitive Machines is experiencing rapid revenue growth but struggling with profitability and financial stability. The negative equity and cash flow challenges highlight significant risks, suggesting a need for strategic financial management to achieve sustainable growth.Income Statement
The company shows significant revenue growth from 2023 to 2024, but profitability remains a concern with negative net income and EBIT margins. The steady increase in EBIT and EBITDA losses highlights ongoing operational challenges.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects high leverage with negative stockholders' equity and a negative equity ratio, indicating financial instability. The debt-to-equity ratio is not meaningful due to negative equity, which is a critical risk factor.30
Negative
Cash Flow
Negative operating and free cash flows are concerning, although financing activities provided cash inflows. The free cash flow to net income ratio is not applicable due to net losses, emphasizing cash flow management issues.40
Negative
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 228.00M | 79.52M | 85.95M | 72.55M | 44.26M | Gross Profit |
| 37.63M | -20.95M | 10.43M | -27.76M | 1.70M | EBIT |
| -57.40M | -56.24M | -5.51M | -37.89M | -4.39M | EBITDA |
| -50.49M | 48.46M | 38.78M | -37.05M | -3.81M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -283.41M | 62.80M | -6.41M | -35.65M | -4.33M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 207.61M | 4.50M | 25.76M | 29.29M | 23.93M | Total Assets |
| 355.40M | 85.91M | 67.00M | 43.45M | 38.04M | Total Debt |
| 37.38M | 43.48M | 25.76M | 14.99M | 5.14M | Net Debt |
| -170.23M | 38.98M | 0.00 | -14.30M | -18.79M | Total Liabilities |
| 351.48M | 139.33M | 124.62M | 95.29M | 53.05M | Stockholders Equity |
| -1.00B | -235.08M | -57.62M | -51.84M | -16.36M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| -67.70M | -75.19M | -15.62M | -19.74M | 5.60M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -57.59M | -45.28M | 784.00K | -16.57M | 8.15M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -10.11M | -29.91M | -16.41M | -3.18M | -2.55M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 272.79M | 53.92M | 12.10M | 25.11M | 1.66M |
Intuitive Machines Technical Analysis
Positive
11.71
Price Trends
9.40
Positive
12.53
Negative
11.40
Positive
Market Momentum
0.47
Positive
58.56
Neutral
22.78
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LUNR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.71 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.42, above the 50-day MA of 9.40, and above the 200-day MA of 11.40, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.47 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LUNR.
Intuitive Machines Risk Analysis
Intuitive Machines disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Intuitive Machines reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Intuitive Machines Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $4.51B | 12.29 | 5.40% | 248.53% | 4.14% | -12.41% | |
63 Neutral | $1.77B | ― | -22.54% | ― | 9.52% | 24.27% | |
61 Neutral | $13.27B | ― | -45.38% | ― | 64.98% | -10.52% | |
50 Neutral | $2.09B | ― | 25.79% | ― | 61.57% | -246.41% | |
46 Neutral | $1.17B | ― | -43.18% | ― | 167.99% | 22.75% | |
43 Neutral | $1.62B | ― | -148.98% | ― | ― | -2.94% | |
25 Underperform | $455.16M | ― | 115.25% | ― | ― | 23.26% |
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
LUNR
Intuitive Machines
11.71
7.32
166.74%
EH
Ehang Holdings
16.26
0.81
5.24%
EVTL
Vertical Aerospace
5.38
-1.76
-24.65%
EVEX
Eve Holding
5.45
1.05
23.86%
RKLB
Rocket Lab USA
28.92
24.36
534.21%
PL
Planet Labs PBC
5.84
3.77
182.13%
Intuitive Machines Corporate Events
Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Intuitive Machines Launches $75 Million Funding Initiative
Positive
Dec 3, 2024
Intuitive Machines has launched a public offering of $65 million in Class A Common Stock, with an option for underwriters to purchase additional shares, alongside a $10 million private placement with Boryung Corporation. Proceeds will fund general corporate purposes, including operations and potential mergers. The offering, subject to market conditions, reflects Intuitive Machines’ strategic focus on space exploration and infrastructure, promising opportunities for investors keen on innovative sectors.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.