Want to see LUNR full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Intuitive Machines
(NASDAQ:LUNR)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$19.50
▼(-29.30% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/25/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial quality (losses, cash burn, and a stressed balance sheet with negative equity) and bearish technical positioning (price below key moving averages and negative MACD). These are partially offset by a constructive earnings-call outlook with reiterated 2026 guidance, record backlog, and improving operating metrics including positive adjusted EBITDA in Q1.
Positive Factors
Backlog and Revenue Visibility
A $1.1B backlog with management expecting 60%–65% to convert in 2026 materially raises near-term revenue visibility. Durable backlog reduces sales volatility, supports production planning and capacity utilization, and underpins multi-month revenue predictability for growth and supplier commitments.
Negative Factors
Stressed Balance Sheet
A persistent equity deficit and material debt load limit financial flexibility and increase refinancing and dilution risk. Over months, this can constrain bidding ability on large programs, raise borrowing costs, and force strategic trade-offs until equity or operating earnings materially improve.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Backlog and Revenue Visibility
A $1.1B backlog with management expecting 60%–65% to convert in 2026 materially raises near-term revenue visibility. Durable backlog reduces sales volatility, supports production planning and capacity utilization, and underpins multi-month revenue predictability for growth and supplier commitments.
Read all positive factors
Intuitive Machines Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue across the company's business lines — for Intuitive Machines that typically means government/NASA contracts, commercial mission services, spacecraft hardware, and engineering/software services — showing which parts drive sales and margins. For investors, segment detail reveals how much revenue is milestone-driven and lumpy versus potentially recurring, highlights single-customer or program concentration, and signals sensitivity to launch schedules, technical delays, or contract timing. Tracking shifts between segments helps assess growth sustainability, margin trends, and the company's ability to diversify risk beyond one-off missions.
Breaks down revenue across the company's business lines — for Intuitive Machines that typically means government/NASA contracts, commercial mission services, spacecraft hardware, and engineering/software services — showing which parts drive sales and margins. For investors, segment detail reveals how much revenue is milestone-driven and lumpy versus potentially recurring, highlights single-customer or program concentration, and signals sensitivity to launch schedules, technical delays, or contract timing. Tracking shifts between segments helps assess growth sustainability, margin trends, and the company's ability to diversify risk beyond one-off missions.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyIntuitive Machines (LUNR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.29B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)16.79M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)3.22
Revenue Growth53.99%
EPS Growth58.32%
CountryUS
Employees435
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.89
Shares Outstanding160,452,320
10 Day Avg. Volume15,058,814
30 Day Avg. Volume16,792,171
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.27
Price to Book (P/B)-2.59
Price to Sales (P/S)9.22
P/FCF Ratio-34.57
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.89
Enterprise Value/Revenue11.42
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit44.41
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-29.04
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$39.40Price Target Upside42.86% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.34
Revenue Forecast (FY)$944.43M
Intuitive Machines Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Intuitive Machines, Inc. specializes in the development and provision of aerospace products and services. The company's core mission is to facilitate ongoing robotic and human missions aimed at exploring the Moon, Mars, and other distant celestial...
How the Company Makes Money
Intuitive Machines primarily generates revenue through contracted services and mission delivery work for customers, with a major focus on U.S. government programs. Key revenue streams include: (1) Lunar mission services and payload delivery: The c...
Intuitive Machines Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a strongly positive operational and commercial narrative—record revenue, large backlog, major contract awards (including a $6.24B Andromeda IDIQ), and the successful integration of Lanteris have materially improved margin profile and produced positive adjusted EBITDA. These positives are tempered by significant one-time acquisition and integration costs, a wider GAAP operating loss, negative free cash flow for the quarter, and pending award timing that creates near-term uncertainty. Management expects many of the one-time costs to normalize and retains 2026 revenue and profitability guidance backed by backlog, supporting a constructive outlook.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue
Q1 revenue of $186.7 million (reported as $187M), ~3x Q1 2025 (approximately +200% year-over-year), driven by satellite manufacturing, CLPS missions, OMES and NSNS programs.
Negative Updates
Operating Loss Widened
Operating loss was $39.2 million in Q1 versus $10.1 million in Q1 2025 (deterioration of ~$29.1 million), driven by acquisition-related transaction and integration costs, amortization and investments.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue
Q1 revenue of $186.7 million (reported as $187M), ~3x Q1 2025 (approximately +200% year-over-year), driven by satellite manufacturing, CLPS missions, OMES and NSNS programs.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated 2026 guidance of $900 million–$1.0 billion in revenue and continued to expect positive adjusted EBITDA for the full year; that outlook is supported by a record Q1 (revenue $186.7M, ~3x Q1 2025, excluding ~ $13M from 12 days of Lanteris), gross profit $30.1M (vs $6.7M), positive adjusted EBITDA $2.7M (vs -$6.6M), operating loss $39.2M, SG&A $50.7M (including ~$20M one‑time acquisition/integration costs and $6.3M quarterly Lanteris share‑based comp), R&D $5.6M, and a record $1.1B backlog (>$400M in new bookings) with ~60–65% expected to convert to 2026 revenue and ~35–40% in 2027+. The company finished Q1 with $232M cash after using ~$403M on the Lanteris acquisition (and a $175M capital raise), reported operating cash used $54.8M, CapEx $9.9M (free cash flow -$64.6M), said CapEx will grow to fund a five‑satellite lunar constellation and ground segment, and expects free cash flow to normalize as one‑time costs subside.Intuitive Machines Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
12
Very Negative
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 334.26M | 210.06M | 228.00M | 79.52M | 85.95M | 72.55M |
| Gross Profit | 85.92M | 32.81M | 37.63M | -20.95M | 10.43M | -27.76M |
| EBITDA | -131.40M | -95.11M | -50.49M | 48.46M | 38.78M | -34.58M |
| Net Income | -123.02M | -83.29M | -283.41M | 62.80M | -6.41M | -35.65M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.72B | 757.15M | 355.40M | 85.93M | 67.00M | 43.45M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 231.62M | 582.61M | 207.61M | 4.56M | 25.76M | 29.29M |
| Total Debt | 426.39M | 372.16M | 37.38M | 43.48M | 25.76M | 14.99M |
| Total Liabilities | 986.79M | 553.45M | 351.48M | 137.50M | 124.62M | 95.29M |
| Stockholders Equity | -327.52M | -748.35M | -1.00B | -233.23M | -57.62M | -51.84M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -133.96M | -56.02M | -67.70M | -75.19M | -15.62M | -19.74M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -88.50M | -14.32M | -57.59M | -45.28M | 784.00K | -16.57M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -505.11M | -56.58M | -10.11M | -29.91M | -16.41M | -3.18M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 461.69M | 446.59M | 272.79M | 53.92M | 12.10M | 25.11M |
Intuitive Machines Technical Analysis
Negative
27.58
Price Trends
29.35
Negative
24.13
Negative
18.54
Positive
Market Momentum
-3.35
Positive
35.33
Neutral
8.96
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LUNR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 27.58 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.73, below the 50-day MA of 29.35, and above the 200-day MA of 18.54, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.35 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.96 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LUNR.
Intuitive Machines Risk Analysis
Intuitive Machines disclosed 56 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Intuitive Machines reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Intuitive Machines Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
55 Neutral | $48.94B | -255.18 | -12.26% | ― | 45.83% | 19.99% | |
54 Neutral | $2.61B | -4.08 | -29.03% | ― | 33.58% | -18.98% | |
52 Neutral | $4.29B | -22.25 | 26.62% | ― | 53.99% | 58.32% | |
50 Neutral | $6.89B | -26.03 | -6.41% | ― | 116.86% | -615.89% | |
47 Neutral | $985.70M | ― | -258.98% | ― | ― | -33.98% | |
43 Neutral | $212.64M | -0.41 | 251.21% | ― | ― | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
LUNR
Intuitive Machines
19.79
8.92
82.06%
AVAV
AeroVironment
137.95
-147.00
-51.59%
EVTL
Vertical Aerospace
1.67
-5.10
-75.33%
EVEX
Eve Holding
2.43
-4.43
-64.58%
RKLB
Rocket Lab USA
84.54
48.77
136.34%
RDW
Redwire
10.93
-5.37
-32.94%
Intuitive Machines Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Intuitive Machines Shareholders Reelect Directors, Ratify Auditor
Positive
Jun 8, 2026
At Intuitive Machines’ Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on June 4, 2026, shareholders elected Class III director nominees Dr. Kamal Ghaffarian and Stephen Altemus to serve terms expiring in 2029, reinforcing continuity in the company̵...
Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Intuitive Machines Launches $500 Million ATM Equity Program
Neutral
Jun 3, 2026
Intuitive Machines, Inc. filed a sales agreement in connection with a shelf registration statement on Form S-3 that became effective on June 2, 2026, authorizing the at-the-market offer and sale of up to $500 million of its Class A common stock th...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Intuitive Machines Expands Space Network With Goonhilly Acquisition
Positive
May 14, 2026
On May 14, 2026, Intuitive Machines’ subsidiary agreed to acquire all shares of UK-based Goonhilly Earth Station Limited for £37 million in a cash-and-stock deal, as part of a broader plan to buy Goonhilly’s UK and U.S. operations...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.